RedmondLonghorn
Footballguy
That graph includes both single family homes and units in small apartment buildings. I think it includes up to 4-plexes or maybe 6 unit buildings.
Here is a similar chart on permits for Single Family Homes only.
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How's your housing market? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter tommyGunZ
- Start date
Here is a similar chart on permits for Single Family Homes only.
Niles Standish
Footballguy
Denver doesn't seem sustainable. I think we are in a major bubble. Bought almost exactly 4 years ago in the low 90s for condo (1 bedroom) in Cap Hill. Zestimate is 208K right now. That's more than double in 4 years if the zestimate is to be believed. I'd be scared to buy right now because I think there's a good chance people buying today are going to be underwater pretty quickly. Especially with all the new construction in the city.
Kraft...
Footballguy
Some of my co-workers have moved to LA because they were tired of living with 4 roommates. San Fran is an awesome city but $ is out of control.
Heading out for business in July, bringing my daughters and parents so they can explore while I'm working. Looking at air B&B's seems to be the better option than hotel rooms. Imagine some owners are making nice bank Air B&Bing.
RedmondLonghorn
Footballguy
Nugget
Footballguy
The bolded is exactly what is happening in Lawrence.
We bought in June 2014 - 2500 sq ft plus 1000 sq ft basement for $210K. Did a HELOC in January and they put the value at $268K. Neighbor just got an offer on a slightly smaller home over sticker (asking $290) first weekend on the market.
All the new construction is $350-600K, and $350 doesn't get you 2000 sqft.
Kev4029
Footballguy
I live in SE Aurora, which makes for a decent commute to Denver, and things are ridiculous out here. We bought our house almost 6 years ago for $240k (less than 2k sf on a small-ish lot plus a finished basement), Zillow is saying it's worth $460k. The cheapest house in our neighborhood is for sale for $425k with a legit 40 minute commute to downtown with little/no traffic. Blows my mind. Denver is creeping towards California and the northeast in terms of cost of living.
Zegras11
Footballguy
Our office has a guy that pumps them out for every area in out MLS. Boise has 16 areas in our MLS. The info is gold.
I ended up way out in Highlands Ranch so well familiar with a long commute
Thank goodness for the train system here or it wouldn't have been feasible to live that far out. Was the only option where I could find what I wanted at a (somewhat) reasonable/affordable price.Craziest thing is that it is only late March. The busy season for the housing market is only just beginning.
Kev4029
Footballguy
We are experiencing more growth than just about anywhere in the US, outside of maybe Texas, and our economy is also pretty bulletproof. There is so much demand for homes that I would be very surprised if we have a housing bubble.
jonessed
Footballguy
Bingo, and I'd guess the number of mortgages underwritten probably trends the same as the inventory in the few years prior to 2008. Do you know if laws and legislation were enacted to keep underwriters from doing that again? If you give say 7 months to construct a new home from time of authorization, plus another 6 or so for permitting you get pretty close to the 1 1/2 - 2 years difference from when the market when from boom to bust. I wonder what causes the permitting to stop, just lack of application?
I'm probably just talking gibberish, but, I don't think it can hurt to look at these things if you know ahead of time that you want to sell in the next couple of years.
I posted the numbers somewhere on this board 6 months ago. Population growth was outpacing new construction. Even with a dip in homeownership rates, there isn't enough supply. The small builder/developer is still having a hard time financing projects. Also land requires 30-40% down so fewer people can afford to build new. This forces even more people into the pre-owned home market.
Zegras11
Footballguy
Our large builders here are not over building at all like ten years ago. One spec home at a time.
McGarnicle
Footballguy
Our area is in a similar state, home prices absolutely exploding. We've had realtors ask if we'd consider selling, no ####### way. Acre of land with an inground pool surrounded by mature trees, it's like living in a park. Quiet and complete privacy from the neighbors. New subdivisions are popping up everywhere, half million dollar houses on tiny lots. Screw that.
Sometimes we are tempted to move back into the city though. For the dining & entertainment options, there's no comparison. We're a 30 minute drive to midtown but it's just not the same as living there.
Workhorse
Footballguy
We moved from the burbs to Decatur to get the best of both worlds, for the most part. Prices here are nuclear - You can't get anything over 2,000 square feet in the City of Decatur school system for under $600k.
Kev4029
Footballguy
jonessed
Footballguy
Nick Vermeil
Footballguy
NYC (Brooklyn/queens anyway) still rocking. Bed Stuy townhouse is worth 130% more than what I paid for it 3 years ago. House across the street sold for 2 mil recently. Drug dealers shot a competitor down the street a week and a half ago, so who wouldn't want to buy here? Living the dream.
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RedmondLonghorn
Footballguy
I bought in the Seattle area a decade ago when I relocated from Chicago. Closed on July 1, 2006, also known as the peak of the peak of the peak.
We sold again several months ago for almost exactly what we bought the house for 10 years earlier. I think that was due to an unfortunate combination of having overpaid on the initial purchase and needing to close a sale during the winter months. Considering I was down about 40% from my purchase price in 2009, I don't feel too terribly bad about it, but it sure would have been nice to have been able to wait for this spring to sell in the peak season. I suspect we would have gotten 5-10% more.
We sold again several months ago for almost exactly what we bought the house for 10 years earlier. I think that was due to an unfortunate combination of having overpaid on the initial purchase and needing to close a sale during the winter months. Considering I was down about 40% from my purchase price in 2009, I don't feel too terribly bad about it, but it sure would have been nice to have been able to wait for this spring to sell in the peak season. I suspect we would have gotten 5-10% more.
Ditto, minus the pool, add greenhouse, 600sf garden, fire pit and some natural wooden area.They aren't building houses on acre lots anymore, they are so close together now if one caught fire the whole neighborhood would burn down. If any house goes up for sale in my neighborhood it doesn't last a month. Neighbor across the street smoked inside, had to have the exterminator come in after he moved out and his german shepherds were locked up inside in between showings and it still sold in just a couple weeks. Unbelievable.
In Florida where I live, renting is insanely expensive as well. When I moved here in 2009, you could get a 1 BR apartment for about $600/month. You're now looking at almost $1,000/month for that same apartment....only 8 years later.
Really tough situation for the lower income people here.
Really tough situation for the lower income people here.
RedmondLonghorn
Footballguy
flapgreen
Footballguy
Eephus
Footballguy
There has been a lot of foreign investment in residential real estate in (mostly coastal) big cities which drives up prices for non-absentee people who actually want to live in their home. This has supposedly been in decline due to issues on the domestic Chinese stock market although you'd be hard pressed to find any impact of this on the skyrocketing Bay Area housing market.
Buttonhook
Footballguy
Exactly. The American Dream of a middle-income couple being able to buy a house is quickly dwindling. Which means, get in while you can...
hxperson
Footballguy
It's not so much that the Chinese stock market is struggling. There are a few stronger factors driving this kind of investment from China, including: (1) The wealthy over there are worried about having their money/possessions expropriated from them at any time and thus are highly motivated to move any wealth out of the country; (2) The existence of this fear is causing the Government to increasingly clamp down on capital outflows, and thus people are trying to move as much as they can before the window completely shuts; and (3) Property prices in the tier 1 cities in China (i.e. Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou) are absolutely ridiculous (it costs something like $2 million for a 2 bedroom condo near but outside the core), and so pretty much every other housing market in the world except NYC, London, and SF look extremely cheap.
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RedmondLonghorn
Footballguy
That actually started happening before the housing bubble burst. It has been an ongoing trend for about a decade.
Chart
Niles Standish
Footballguy
Hope you're right. But income has not increased with housing. Denver (and all of Colorado) has become a cool/popular place to move. But it's going to be harder for people to afford to move here which coupled with a lot of new construction (at least in the city I mostly am either in the city or west so I don't know if a lot of construction is going on in the suburbs) might soften the market up pretty quickly if construction keeps going and people stop moving here in large numbers. Then again a few years ago we were still a relatively cheap cost of living so some of it might be gain that gets us back to where we should have been.
Buttonhook
Footballguy
Doesn't that chart just reflect the lax qualification standards that allowed more un-qualified buyers to get into the market mid-2000s? Which is not what is happening in today's market.
RedmondLonghorn
Footballguy
Yeah, it probably does reflect that to a degree.
Excluding that period, the long term average rate of home-ownership appears to be in the 64-66% range.
Rodrigo Duterte
Footballguy
Elderly family member just sold a home in Palm Desert, Ca. Furnished with plenty of art included. At full ask, in three days, with other offers on the table. Sold to another realtor. That's a flip for sure. Unethical, imo, to "represent" a seller at what is more than likely a below-market price.
At the very least, there should've been something in the contract which stated that if they flip it -- within say, 3 years -- then both parties split the profit.
At the very least, there should've been something in the contract which stated that if they flip it -- within say, 3 years -- then both parties split the profit.
Random
Footballguy
The Realtor suggests a price, the principal signs off on it. Maybe the Realtor underpriced it or maybe they nailed the price perfectly. There should have been a market analysis to support the listing price. If that wasn't done or was done with fraud intended, then their are options available.
In my market I'm seeing homes that go quick or sit for months. It's almost like if you don't nail the pricing on the front end and get it under contract in a couple of weeks, it's going to sit until there's a significant price reduction.
Rodrigo Duterte
Footballguy
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Zegras11
Footballguy
Redwes25
Footballguy
You ever finish those renovations on your Brownstone? I remember you started a thread about it a few years ago but think the thread died.
Nick Vermeil
Footballguy
It died because we found out my wife was pregnant with # 2 and in came the contractor. We did a very basic gut renovation of the owners half, and a quick and dirty finish refresh in the rental. It's not the dream remodel I've always wanted to do but it's pretty good. We still have bare bulbs in places where we haven't fallen in love with light fixtures and things like that.
Redwes25
Footballguy
Well the thing is you can always finish it down the road. Brooklyn real estate as been insane but I don't think the end is near (or at least I hope it isn't as I am actively looking for a brownstone of my own).
Nick Vermeil
Footballguy
It's tough out there right now but you can do it. There are houses on my block for sale that need a lot of work. Just 6 short blocks from me one that did not need work set a Bed Stuy record a few days ago at 3.3 million. Just stupid.
RedmondLonghorn
Footballguy
Because I am a huge 
, I went and looked up the data for King County:
Home Values vs. Household Income
Based on this chart, home values at 6.5x median household income are closing in on the valuations we saw at the peak of the bubble period (7x median household income).
However, I will say that I think this overstates it slightly. Zillow's data was the only time series I could find that was easy to download, but their current value estimate is 12% above what the National Association of Realtors estimates for King County.
I also had to estimate the household income for the county for 2016, since real data was only available through 2015.
The ratio of home value to household income falls to 6.1 if I use the NAR median value estimate instead of Zillow's. That is still probably at least 40% higher than the national average.
, I went and looked up the data for King County:Home Values vs. Household Income
Based on this chart, home values at 6.5x median household income are closing in on the valuations we saw at the peak of the bubble period (7x median household income).
However, I will say that I think this overstates it slightly. Zillow's data was the only time series I could find that was easy to download, but their current value estimate is 12% above what the National Association of Realtors estimates for King County.
I also had to estimate the household income for the county for 2016, since real data was only available through 2015.
The ratio of home value to household income falls to 6.1 if I use the NAR median value estimate instead of Zillow's. That is still probably at least 40% higher than the national average.
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Rodrigo Duterte
Footballguy
What don't you understand? (same goes for Getzlaf and Craig out of Miami - they "liked" your post)
Nugget
Footballguy
Rodrigo Duterte
Footballguy
I am assuming he (and Craig and Getzlaf) did not understand something from this part of my post, which he bolded:
"At the very least, there should've been something in the contract which stated that if they flip it -- within say, 3 years -- then both parties split the profit."
It's not written well but the point is somewhat clear, no?
The Commish
Footballguy
So weird that this thread keeps showing up when we are in a real estate decision phase. We are moving to Florida....house has been on the market 4 days and we have 2, possibly 4 offers as of today....both full ask. I was freakin' out that we wouldn't be able to sell in time to move. Now I'm wondering if we'll be able to negotiate a rent back so that we don't have to go into an apartment until after school's out.
