How's your housing market? (2 Viewers)

[General Malaise]

Neighborhood I live in has been red hot since the housing fiasco. Like most, I'm sure. It's not a gated community, but there's only two ways to access it and with no 'thru traffic', so very minimal car activity, sidewalks, close to schools, two highways, public transit, etc. Perfect location. Houses are gobbled up almost as soon as they hit the market.

Until now. There's a lot of houses sitting with For Sale signs that haven't moved. Little to no activity for open houses. New listings, reduced prices, nothing is spurring on buyers. Each house that goes up with a new listing just makes my stomach churn a little. We're not moving or anything, but I'm starting to believe a correction - an overdue correction - is here. Unless people are waiting for rates to drop, I'm getting a bad feeling about this, like Han Solo in Star Wars.

 

[General Malaise]

Awesome... you guys are working hard to get this thread on RE locked.

Sadly, you're right. Only the positive impacts of Dear Leader's decisions are allowed. Very unbiased.

Love you buddy, but this isn't helping.

 

[Captain Cranks]

Neighborhood I live in has been red hot since the housing fiasco. Like most, I'm sure. It's not a gated community, but there's only two ways to access it and with no 'thru traffic', so very minimal car activity, sidewalks, close to schools, two highways, public transit, etc. Perfect location. Houses are gobbled up almost as soon as they hit the market.

Until now. There's a lot of houses sitting with For Sale signs that haven't moved. Little to no activity for open houses. New listings, reduced prices, nothing is spurring on buyers. Each house that goes up with a new listing just makes my stomach churn a little. We're not moving or anything, but I'm starting to believe a correction - an overdue correction - is here. Unless people are waiting for rates to drop, I'm getting a bad feeling about this, like Han Solo in Star Wars.

It has to happen. Prices are too detached from incomes. The disparity is worse now than it was in 2008.

I will note that the entire country isn't in the same position. Florida, Texas, California, Nevada and the PNW are all inflated relative to median income but you can still find affordable options in other parts of the country.

 

[DA RAIDERS]

Awesome... you guys are working hard to get this thread on RE locked.

You might not like it, but it’s relevant.

 

[DA RAIDERS]

The house next to me took much longer to sell than it would have the last 10 years. 3 months or so. And it sold for about 70k under asking. it’s still ridiculously over priced. But I live in beugie south Orange County.

 

[urbanhack]

Neighborhood I live in has been red hot since the housing fiasco. Like most, I'm sure. It's not a gated community, but there's only two ways to access it and with no 'thru traffic', so very minimal car activity, sidewalks, close to schools, two highways, public transit, etc. Perfect location. Houses are gobbled up almost as soon as they hit the market.

Until now. There's a lot of houses sitting with For Sale signs that haven't moved. Little to no activity for open houses. New listings, reduced prices, nothing is spurring on buyers. Each house that goes up with a new listing just makes my stomach churn a little. We're not moving or anything, but I'm starting to believe a correction - an overdue correction - is here. Unless people are waiting for rates to drop, I'm getting a bad feeling about this, like Han Solo in Star Wars.

PDX is the worst market in the country for buyers.

 

[Chadstroma]

Our small town in FL has a heavy annual snowbird population, many from Canada. Winter rentals are historically impossible to get as the same people come back year after year and when they don't there's a long waiting list for them so they never hit the market. Not so much this year. The Canadians aren't coming and there are houses all over listed publicly for rent for the winter. This didn't even happen during the recession. Landlords of those types of properties are beginning to panic. Might create some buying opportunities if things don't change soon.

Any ideas on why?
Is it snowbirds in general or specifically Canadians?

Ummmmmm. Yes?

Well..... that was an informative and helpful posts. Easily one of your best.

Canada is still on this huge boycott everything US right now. My aunt and uncle live there. It's a big deal.

So they are going to suffer the Canadian winters to spite us?

Coastal British Columbia isn't terrible in the winter. Like Seattle.

But those middle provinces.....wooooof.

Chicago is bad enough for me... not very interested in heading further north. Seattle isn't bad at all in winter though.

 

[General Malaise]

Our small town in FL has a heavy annual snowbird population, many from Canada. Winter rentals are historically impossible to get as the same people come back year after year and when they don't there's a long waiting list for them so they never hit the market. Not so much this year. The Canadians aren't coming and there are houses all over listed publicly for rent for the winter. This didn't even happen during the recession. Landlords of those types of properties are beginning to panic. Might create some buying opportunities if things don't change soon.

Any ideas on why?
Is it snowbirds in general or specifically Canadians?

Ummmmmm. Yes?

Well..... that was an informative and helpful posts. Easily one of your best.

Canada is still on this huge boycott everything US right now. My aunt and uncle live there. It's a big deal.

So they are going to suffer the Canadian winters to spite us?

Coastal British Columbia isn't terrible in the winter. Like Seattle.

But those middle provinces.....wooooof.

Chicago is bad enough for me... not very interested in heading further north. Seattle isn't bad at all in winter though.

Chicago winters are way worse than anything we experience in the PNW. Unless you hate rain and prefer sunny days with temps in the teens. I'll take low 40s with grey gloom over temps in below freezing all day long, but I like the rain.

 

[General Malaise]

Neighborhood I live in has been red hot since the housing fiasco. Like most, I'm sure. It's not a gated community, but there's only two ways to access it and with no 'thru traffic', so very minimal car activity, sidewalks, close to schools, two highways, public transit, etc. Perfect location. Houses are gobbled up almost as soon as they hit the market.

Until now. There's a lot of houses sitting with For Sale signs that haven't moved. Little to no activity for open houses. New listings, reduced prices, nothing is spurring on buyers. Each house that goes up with a new listing just makes my stomach churn a little. We're not moving or anything, but I'm starting to believe a correction - an overdue correction - is here. Unless people are waiting for rates to drop, I'm getting a bad feeling about this, like Han Solo in Star Wars.

PDX is the worst market in the country for buyers.

Why do you say that?

 

[General Malaise]

Neighborhood I live in has been red hot since the housing fiasco. Like most, I'm sure. It's not a gated community, but there's only two ways to access it and with no 'thru traffic', so very minimal car activity, sidewalks, close to schools, two highways, public transit, etc. Perfect location. Houses are gobbled up almost as soon as they hit the market.

Until now. There's a lot of houses sitting with For Sale signs that haven't moved. Little to no activity for open houses. New listings, reduced prices, nothing is spurring on buyers. Each house that goes up with a new listing just makes my stomach churn a little. We're not moving or anything, but I'm starting to believe a correction - an overdue correction - is here. Unless people are waiting for rates to drop, I'm getting a bad feeling about this, like Han Solo in Star Wars.

It has to happen. Prices are too detached from incomes. The disparity is worse now than it was in 2008.

I will note that the entire country isn't in the same position. Florida, Texas, California, Nevada and the PNW are all inflated relative to median income but you can still find affordable options in other parts of the country.

Problem is, nobody wants to live in Nebraska or Alabama or wherever home prices are reasonable. Well, some people do, but certainly not this guy. I did a tour of duty in Mississippi and NO THANK YOU to that ever again.

 

[Chadstroma]

Neighborhood I live in has been red hot since the housing fiasco. Like most, I'm sure. It's not a gated community, but there's only two ways to access it and with no 'thru traffic', so very minimal car activity, sidewalks, close to schools, two highways, public transit, etc. Perfect location. Houses are gobbled up almost as soon as they hit the market.

Until now. There's a lot of houses sitting with For Sale signs that haven't moved. Little to no activity for open houses. New listings, reduced prices, nothing is spurring on buyers. Each house that goes up with a new listing just makes my stomach churn a little. We're not moving or anything, but I'm starting to believe a correction - an overdue correction - is here. Unless people are waiting for rates to drop, I'm getting a bad feeling about this, like Han Solo in Star Wars.

Inventory going up is the norm now across the country. If/when rates go down it will spur buying for sure, how much depends on how low really.

I haven't dove into the data but my "feel" is that Inventory is more at a balanced level cloaer to "historic norm" much like interest rates are at the "historic average" but we have been so conditioned with such abnormally low rates and abnormal appreciation that it feels very negative. Plus, this is the start of the slow season for RE.

I am not yet seeing a correction on the horizon outside of normal seasonal adjustment. But certainly as is, the foot has been taken off the gas peddle.

 

[Chadstroma]

Neighborhood I live in has been red hot since the housing fiasco. Like most, I'm sure. It's not a gated community, but there's only two ways to access it and with no 'thru traffic', so very minimal car activity, sidewalks, close to schools, two highways, public transit, etc. Perfect location. Houses are gobbled up almost as soon as they hit the market.

Until now. There's a lot of houses sitting with For Sale signs that haven't moved. Little to no activity for open houses. New listings, reduced prices, nothing is spurring on buyers. Each house that goes up with a new listing just makes my stomach churn a little. We're not moving or anything, but I'm starting to believe a correction - an overdue correction - is here. Unless people are waiting for rates to drop, I'm getting a bad feeling about this, like Han Solo in Star Wars.

It has to happen. Prices are too detached from incomes. The disparity is worse now than it was in 2008.

I will note that the entire country isn't in the same position. Florida, Texas, California, Nevada and the PNW are all inflated relative to median income but you can still find affordable options in other parts of the country.

Problem is, nobody wants to live in Nebraska or Alabama or wherever home prices are reasonable. Well, some people do, but certainly not this guy. I did a tour of duty in Mississippi and NO THANK YOU to that ever again.

I can't handle the humidity so the SE is largely off limits for me. The humidity in the summers here in Chicago is bad enough or me being a So Cal boy born and bred. My wife also hates humidity. Tennessee didn't seem bad going through except for their freeway out of... can't remember now if it was Nashville or Memphis or another larger city were absolutely horrible... like a gravel road. But beyond that seemed nice.

 

[Instinctive]

We might be reaching the end of our journey. I would say the Dallas housing market is teetering but trending a little down for anything less than a perfect house.

We found one, offered a little over 5% below ask, accepted a counter at 3% below ask, and then after inspections we took another 5% off in concessions. Looks like we will land at around 4% in concessions. All in all it'll be about 7% below the list price. More than 10% below their original list price from the spring.

 

[urbanhack]

Neighborhood I live in has been red hot since the housing fiasco. Like most, I'm sure. It's not a gated community, but there's only two ways to access it and with no 'thru traffic', so very minimal car activity, sidewalks, close to schools, two highways, public transit, etc. Perfect location. Houses are gobbled up almost as soon as they hit the market.

Until now. There's a lot of houses sitting with For Sale signs that haven't moved. Little to no activity for open houses. New listings, reduced prices, nothing is spurring on buyers. Each house that goes up with a new listing just makes my stomach churn a little. We're not moving or anything, but I'm starting to believe a correction - an overdue correction - is here. Unless people are waiting for rates to drop, I'm getting a bad feeling about this, like Han Solo in Star Wars.

PDX is the worst market in the country for buyers.

Why do you say that?

I saw this earlier in the year...

Portland, Ore., Has Worst Housing Crisis Outlook

According to a LendingTree study, Pacific Northwest metros have the worst housing crisis outlook, while Southern metros have the best.

www.lendingtree.com

 

[The Z Machine]

Neighborhood I live in has been red hot since the housing fiasco. Like most, I'm sure. It's not a gated community, but there's only two ways to access it and with no 'thru traffic', so very minimal car activity, sidewalks, close to schools, two highways, public transit, etc. Perfect location. Houses are gobbled up almost as soon as they hit the market.

Until now. There's a lot of houses sitting with For Sale signs that haven't moved. Little to no activity for open houses. New listings, reduced prices, nothing is spurring on buyers. Each house that goes up with a new listing just makes my stomach churn a little. We're not moving or anything, but I'm starting to believe a correction - an overdue correction - is here. Unless people are waiting for rates to drop, I'm getting a bad feeling about this, like Han Solo in Star Wars.

PDX is the worst market in the country for buyers.

Because it's a war zone?

 

[Osaurus]

I thought being in an airport flight path was bad, but the mortar fire across PDX is a bridge too far.

 

[eoMMan]

People locked into low interest rates is still a big part of the issue. They either don't want to move or simply choose to rent out the property instead of selling it. As of the second quarter of 2025, 80% of all mortgage debt is under 6%. Of this, 52% is under 4% (32.1% between 3% and 4%....20.4% under 3%). That's insane. This will ease up naturally over time (or if/when rates go down and these owners are willing to sell).

 

[BassNBrew]

People locked into low interest rates is still a big part of the issue. They either don't want to move or simply choose to rent out the property instead of selling it. As of the second quarter of 2025, 80% of all mortgage debt is under 6%. Of this, 52% is under 4% (32.1% between 3% and 4%....20.4% under 3%). That's insane. This will ease up naturally over time (or if/when rates go down and these owners are willing to sell).

Regions and Pennymac will get their sub 3% mortgages back out of my cold dead hands.

 

[General Malaise]

I thought being in an airport flight path was bad, but the mortar fire across PDX is a bridge too far.

The blaring of Yakity Sax on repeat might be the total ruination of the city.

 

[Scoresman]

We got just under 3% in 2020 for our house in SE PDX. We're not going anywhere anytime soon.

 

[Senor Schmutzig]

People locked into low interest rates is still a big part of the issue. They either don't want to move or simply choose to rent out the property instead of selling it. As of the second quarter of 2025, 80% of all mortgage debt is under 6%. Of this, 52% is under 4% (32.1% between 3% and 4%....20.4% under 3%). That's insane. This will ease up naturally over time (or if/when rates go down and these owners are willing to sell).

Regions and Pennymac will get their sub 3% mortgages back out of my cold dead hands.

I have $430k @ 2.625% and another $88k in a separate mortgage/property @ 2.875%.

Those are going to be tough to get rid of, however, we will probably end up cashing out of our primary house at some point and buying one or two other places with cash in an MCOL location.

 

[stbugs]

People locked into low interest rates is still a big part of the issue. They either don't want to move or simply choose to rent out the property instead of selling it. As of the second quarter of 2025, 80% of all mortgage debt is under 6%. Of this, 52% is under 4% (32.1% between 3% and 4%....20.4% under 3%). That's insane. This will ease up naturally over time (or if/when rates go down and these owners are willing to sell).

Regions and Pennymac will get their sub 3% mortgages back out of my cold dead hands.

I have $430k @ 2.625% and another $88k in a separate mortgage/property @ 2.875%.

Those are going to be tough to get rid of, however, we will probably end up cashing out of our primary house at some point and buying one or two other places with cash in an MCOL location.

We’ll be selling our home soon and I’m really hoping we will have no mortgage or a small one. I hate the idea of losing my 2.375% loan and wish it could transfer but we are still planning to move and start building after we sell. I’m actually looking forward to living in an apartment for a bit and will not take a chance on owning two homes simultaneously. I think our 82% equity will create interest to cover all our monthly costs. Might be nice having 9-12 months of cheap living!

 

[Instinctive]

People locked into low interest rates is still a big part of the issue. They either don't want to move or simply choose to rent out the property instead of selling it. As of the second quarter of 2025, 80% of all mortgage debt is under 6%. Of this, 52% is under 4% (32.1% between 3% and 4%....20.4% under 3%). That's insane. This will ease up naturally over time (or if/when rates go down and these owners are willing to sell).

Regions and Pennymac will get their sub 3% mortgages back out of my cold dead hands.

I have $430k @ 2.625% and another $88k in a separate mortgage/property @ 2.875%.

Those are going to be tough to get rid of, however, we will probably end up cashing out of our primary house at some point and buying one or two other places with cash in an MCOL location.

We’ll be selling our home soon and I’m really hoping we will have no mortgage or a small one. I hate the idea of losing my 2.375% loan and wish it could transfer but we are still planning to move and start building after we sell. I’m actually looking forward to living in an apartment for a bit and will not take a chance on owning two homes simultaneously. I think our 82% equity will create interest to cover all our monthly costs. Might be nice having 9-12 months of cheap living!

I mean we are exacerbating the problem. Our 2.5% home will not be sold. We will rent it out, and I have a LOT of room to undercut the market and have a healthy margin between actual appreciation of the property AND higher rates on everyone.

 

[Captain Cranks]

It would be nice if the government would let the market clear on its own in the form of lower prices, but, of course, we're already seeing demands to keep it artificially elevated.

 

[Chadstroma]

It would be nice if the government would let the market clear on its own in the form of lower prices, but, of course, we're already seeing demands to keep it artificially elevated.

Walk me through what you want to happen and what you think would happen if you got what you wanted.

 

[Captain Cranks]

It would be nice if the government would let the market clear on its own in the form of lower prices, but, of course, we're already seeing demands to keep it artificially elevated.

Walk me through what you want to happen and what you think would happen if you got what you wanted.

I'd like to see home prices continue to fall to affordable levels. Lower interest rates inflate asset prices, but those who need homes don't have assets. Will that hurt people like me who will see the value of their assets go down? Yes, but it will put our economy on stronger footing in the long run, imo.

Do you disagree with any of that?

 

[FarFromHome]

I'd like to see home prices continue to fall to affordable levels.

Although I absolutely want everyone to own a home, selfishly, I don't want my current home value to fall. The housing market is and always has been very tricky. I think I'd rather have a government legislation that helps people buy homes over housing market values falling to the floor so everyone can buy one. Does that make me bad? I'm no expert by any means and reserve the right to change stance through good conversation.

 

[Chadstroma]

It would be nice if the government would let the market clear on its own in the form of lower prices, but, of course, we're already seeing demands to keep it artificially elevated.

Walk me through what you want to happen and what you think would happen if you got what you wanted.

I'd like to see home prices continue to fall to affordable levels. Lower interest rates inflate asset prices, but those who need homes don't have assets. Will that hurt people like me who will see the value of their assets go down? Yes, but it will put our economy on stronger footing in the long run, imo.

Do you disagree with any of that?

I get you want housing values to fall. I am asking what policy you want to see that would make this happen and then how do you see that playing out?

 

[Nugget]

It would be nice if the government would let the market clear on its own in the form of lower prices, but, of course, we're already seeing demands to keep it artificially elevated.

Walk me through what you want to happen and what you think would happen if you got what you wanted.

I'd like to see home prices continue to fall to affordable levels. Lower interest rates inflate asset prices, but those who need homes don't have assets. Will that hurt people like me who will see the value of their assets go down? Yes, but it will put our economy on stronger footing in the long run, imo.

Do you disagree with any of that?

I get you want housing values to fall. I am asking what policy you want to see that would make this happen and then how do you see that playing out?

Mortgage interest should not be deductible. It would have no impact on housing affordability or values though. PMI should not be a thing.

 

[Chadstroma]

It would be nice if the government would let the market clear on its own in the form of lower prices, but, of course, we're already seeing demands to keep it artificially elevated.

Walk me through what you want to happen and what you think would happen if you got what you wanted.

I'd like to see home prices continue to fall to affordable levels. Lower interest rates inflate asset prices, but those who need homes don't have assets. Will that hurt people like me who will see the value of their assets go down? Yes, but it will put our economy on stronger footing in the long run, imo.

Do you disagree with any of that?

I get you want housing values to fall. I am asking what policy you want to see that would make this happen and then how do you see that playing out?

Mortgage interest should not be deductible. It would have no impact on housing affordability or values though. PMI should not be a thing.

Is this your answer to bringing home values down or just your ideas on things being done differently?

 

[The Z Machine]

I'd like to see home prices continue to fall to affordable levels.

Although I absolutely want everyone to own a home, selfishly, I don't want my current home value to fall. The housing market is and always has been very tricky. I think I'd rather have a government legislation that helps people buy homes over housing market values falling to the floor so everyone can buy one. Does that make me bad? I'm no expert by any means and reserve the right to change stance through good conversation.

Sounds like socialism.

 

[Captain Cranks]

I get you want housing values to fall. I am asking what policy you want to see that would make this happen and then how do you see that playing out?

My point is that I don't want to see any government policies that help stoke demand or inflate housing prices. Prices are currently on a downward trajectory because prices are too high relative to incomes. I want to see them continue to fall to be more in line with incomes. I don't want them to be made "more affordable" artificially by lowering interest rates (stokes demand and causes rise in prices) or relaxing lending standards (we saw how this plays itself out in 2008) which is what I'm seeing voiced as solutions to the issue.

How do I see this playing out? Lower housing prices means higher affordability at existing interest rates. Investors, who have helped exacerbate price appreciation since Covid, will bail on their investments further increasing supply.

Will this mean pain for those of us who have housing assets? Yes, but we're in a better position to weather the storm.

 

[Desert_Power]

Prices are currently on a downward trajectory because prices are too high relative to incomes.

Shrinking population as well: https://www.fox5ny.com/news/us-population-decline-first-time-2025

 

[Captain Cranks]

Prices are currently on a downward trajectory because prices are too high relative to incomes.

Shrinking population as well: https://www.fox5ny.com/news/us-population-decline-first-time-2025

Freddie Mac estimates as Baby Boomers age, approximately 9 million of their homes will be put on the market over the next decade. To put that into context, we're currently building homes at an annual rate of 1.3 million.

 

[BassNBrew]

Prices are currently on a downward trajectory because prices are too high relative to incomes.

Shrinking population as well: https://www.fox5ny.com/news/us-population-decline-first-time-2025

Freddie Mac estimates as Baby Boomers age, approximately 9 million of their homes will be put on the market over the next decade. To put that into context, we're currently building homes at an annual rate of 1.3 million.

Problem is that no one wants their homes (for the most part).

 

[Captain Cranks]

Problem is that no one wants their homes (for the most part).

What data are you using to make this statement?

 

[Chadstroma]

I get you want housing values to fall. I am asking what policy you want to see that would make this happen and then how do you see that playing out?

My point is that I don't want to see any government policies that help stoke demand or inflate housing prices. Prices are currently on a downward trajectory because prices are too high relative to incomes. I want to see them continue to fall to be more in line with incomes. I don't want them to be made "more affordable" artificially by lowering interest rates (stokes demand and causes rise in prices) or relaxing lending standards (we saw how this plays itself out in 2008) which is what I'm seeing voiced as solutions to the issue.

How do I see this playing out? Lower housing prices means higher affordability at existing interest rates. Investors, who have helped exacerbate price appreciation since Covid, will bail on their investments further increasing supply.

Will this mean pain for those of us who have housing assets? Yes, but we're in a better position to weather the storm.

The 2010's home construction went off the cliff. We built less homes in that decade than any other decade until you got back to the 1930's. The construction pace so far this decade is on the slower side as well with comparable to the 1960's. Population growth has slowed a bit but still is much higher than what we saw in 1930's with 9 million versus almost 23 million.

Higher interest rates will not solve anything. Higher interest rates are not just mortgage rates but mean higher credit card and vehicle loans. I work with a lot of first time homebuyers. I have done a lot of work to try to get FTHB's into homes. I even had a FB group with over 10K in it giving free guidance on credit score improvement with a focus on helping FTHB's (I saw had... I still have it, but FB algorithm changed for some reason and basically killed the group so I don't put much time into now). The two biggest issues I see for these FTHB's? Credit debt and car loans. Established homeowners are not the ones that generally are hurting on those as they have equity that they can tap into and bail out on it. Renters are screwed. Their rent is a sunk cost and they struggle to make progress. Then, once they do, they are still cash strapped because they have put all their money on paying down/off the credit card debt and not saving so they have very little resources to buy a home. Further, higher interest rates come due to one reason: high inflation. Inflation hits the poor and renters much harder than it does wealthier people and home owners. On top of that, interest rates being high fights inflation in one way: killing the economy, When the economy goes south, you get people without jobs and making less money which makes it harder for them to buy homes and which also tends to lower the construction of new build homes.

With the lack of housing, rent comps will continue to remain strong even with property values declining. They will be even more incentivized to hold their property and rent versus sell at a lower value. And in fact, lower property values will further incentivize investors to buy more property as it would be a temporary buying opportunity so that they can increase their portfolio.

The only thing that will actually help is that we build many more homes. That is something Trump pressured the home builders to do recently (last week I believe). High interest rates discourages more new builds while lower interest rates are incentive for builders to build more.

 

[Chadstroma]

It would be nice if the government would let the market clear on its own in the form of lower prices, but, of course, we're already seeing demands to keep it artificially elevated.

Walk me through what you want to happen and what you think would happen if you got what you wanted.

I'd like to see home prices continue to fall to affordable levels. Lower interest rates inflate asset prices, but those who need homes don't have assets. Will that hurt people like me who will see the value of their assets go down? Yes, but it will put our economy on stronger footing in the long run, imo.

Do you disagree with any of that?

I get you want housing values to fall. I am asking what policy you want to see that would make this happen and then how do you see that playing out?

Mortgage interest should not be deductible. It would have no impact on housing affordability or values though. PMI should not be a thing.

And PMI is a good thing. I can explain why if you would like.

 

[BassNBrew]

Problem is that no one wants their homes (for the most part).

What data are you using to make this statement?

The last several hundred tenants I've worked with. If it doesn't have quartz and LVP then it might as well be a dog house.

 

[BassNBrew]

I get you want housing values to fall. I am asking what policy you want to see that would make this happen and then how do you see that playing out?

My point is that I don't want to see any government policies that help stoke demand or inflate housing prices. Prices are currently on a downward trajectory because prices are too high relative to incomes. I want to see them continue to fall to be more in line with incomes. I don't want them to be made "more affordable" artificially by lowering interest rates (stokes demand and causes rise in prices) or relaxing lending standards (we saw how this plays itself out in 2008) which is what I'm seeing voiced as solutions to the issue.

How do I see this playing out? Lower housing prices means higher affordability at existing interest rates. Investors, who have helped exacerbate price appreciation since Covid, will bail on their investments further increasing supply.

Will this mean pain for those of us who have housing assets? Yes, but we're in a better position to weather the storm.

The 2010's home construction went off the cliff. We built less homes in that decade than any other decade until you got back to the 1930's. The construction pace so far this decade is on the slower side as well with comparable to the 1960's. Population growth has slowed a bit but still is much higher than what we saw in 1930's with 9 million versus almost 23 million.

Higher interest rates will not solve anything. Higher interest rates are not just mortgage rates but mean higher credit card and vehicle loans. I work with a lot of first time homebuyers. I have done a lot of work to try to get FTHB's into homes. I even had a FB group with over 10K in it giving free guidance on credit score improvement with a focus on helping FTHB's (I saw had... I still have it, but FB algorithm changed for some reason and basically killed the group so I don't put much time into now). The two biggest issues I see for these FTHB's? Credit debt and car loans. Established homeowners are not the ones that generally are hurting on those as they have equity that they can tap into and bail out on it. Renters are screwed. Their rent is a sunk cost and they struggle to make progress. Then, once they do, they are still cash strapped because they have put all their money on paying down/off the credit card debt and not saving so they have very little resources to buy a home. Further, higher interest rates come due to one reason: high inflation. Inflation hits the poor and renters much harder than it does wealthier people and home owners. On top of that, interest rates being high fights inflation in one way: killing the economy, When the economy goes south, you get people without jobs and making less money which makes it harder for them to buy homes and which also tends to lower the construction of new build homes.

With the lack of housing, rent comps will continue to remain strong even with property values declining. They will be even more incentivized to hold their property and rent versus sell at a lower value. And in fact, lower property values will further incentivize investors to buy more property as it would be a temporary buying opportunity so that they can increase their portfolio.

The only thing that will actually help is that we build many more homes. That is something Trump pressured the home builders to do recently (last week I believe). High interest rates discourages more new builds while lower interest rates are incentive for builders to build more.

Locally Taylor Morrison is offering year 1 - 1.75%, year 2 - 2.75%, year 3-7 - 3.75% on new homes.

 

[Chadstroma]

Problem is that no one wants their homes (for the most part).

What data are you using to make this statement?

The last several hundred tenants I've worked with. If it doesn't have quartz and LVP then it might as well be a dog house.

Rehab/203k loans to the rescue. Gawd those are PIA loans but hey....

 

[Chadstroma]

I get you want housing values to fall. I am asking what policy you want to see that would make this happen and then how do you see that playing out?

My point is that I don't want to see any government policies that help stoke demand or inflate housing prices. Prices are currently on a downward trajectory because prices are too high relative to incomes. I want to see them continue to fall to be more in line with incomes. I don't want them to be made "more affordable" artificially by lowering interest rates (stokes demand and causes rise in prices) or relaxing lending standards (we saw how this plays itself out in 2008) which is what I'm seeing voiced as solutions to the issue.

How do I see this playing out? Lower housing prices means higher affordability at existing interest rates. Investors, who have helped exacerbate price appreciation since Covid, will bail on their investments further increasing supply.

Will this mean pain for those of us who have housing assets? Yes, but we're in a better position to weather the storm.

The 2010's home construction went off the cliff. We built less homes in that decade than any other decade until you got back to the 1930's. The construction pace so far this decade is on the slower side as well with comparable to the 1960's. Population growth has slowed a bit but still is much higher than what we saw in 1930's with 9 million versus almost 23 million.

Higher interest rates will not solve anything. Higher interest rates are not just mortgage rates but mean higher credit card and vehicle loans. I work with a lot of first time homebuyers. I have done a lot of work to try to get FTHB's into homes. I even had a FB group with over 10K in it giving free guidance on credit score improvement with a focus on helping FTHB's (I saw had... I still have it, but FB algorithm changed for some reason and basically killed the group so I don't put much time into now). The two biggest issues I see for these FTHB's? Credit debt and car loans. Established homeowners are not the ones that generally are hurting on those as they have equity that they can tap into and bail out on it. Renters are screwed. Their rent is a sunk cost and they struggle to make progress. Then, once they do, they are still cash strapped because they have put all their money on paying down/off the credit card debt and not saving so they have very little resources to buy a home. Further, higher interest rates come due to one reason: high inflation. Inflation hits the poor and renters much harder than it does wealthier people and home owners. On top of that, interest rates being high fights inflation in one way: killing the economy, When the economy goes south, you get people without jobs and making less money which makes it harder for them to buy homes and which also tends to lower the construction of new build homes.

With the lack of housing, rent comps will continue to remain strong even with property values declining. They will be even more incentivized to hold their property and rent versus sell at a lower value. And in fact, lower property values will further incentivize investors to buy more property as it would be a temporary buying opportunity so that they can increase their portfolio.

The only thing that will actually help is that we build many more homes. That is something Trump pressured the home builders to do recently (last week I believe). High interest rates discourages more new builds while lower interest rates are incentive for builders to build more.

Locally Taylor Morrison is offering year 1 - 1.75%, year 2 - 2.75%, year 3-7 - 3.75% on new homes.

Yea, builders, especially bigger ones, will take losses on loans in order to move inventory. They have lending operations in order to do so. They tend to suck and can't close anything outside a cookie cutter simple loan.

 

[General Malaise]

It would be nice if the government would let the market clear on its own in the form of lower prices, but, of course, we're already seeing demands to keep it artificially elevated.

Walk me through what you want to happen and what you think would happen if you got what you wanted.

I'd like to see home prices continue to fall to affordable levels. Lower interest rates inflate asset prices, but those who need homes don't have assets. Will that hurt people like me who will see the value of their assets go down? Yes, but it will put our economy on stronger footing in the long run, imo.

Do you disagree with any of that?

I get you want housing values to fall. I am asking what policy you want to see that would make this happen and then how do you see that playing out?

Mortgage interest should not be deductible. It would have no impact on housing affordability or values though. PMI should not be a thing.

Not a tax guy, but didn't the change in the standard deduction eliminate the need to itemize and deduct mortgage interest? At least for non-rich FBGs?

 

[Chadstroma]

It would be nice if the government would let the market clear on its own in the form of lower prices, but, of course, we're already seeing demands to keep it artificially elevated.

Walk me through what you want to happen and what you think would happen if you got what you wanted.

I'd like to see home prices continue to fall to affordable levels. Lower interest rates inflate asset prices, but those who need homes don't have assets. Will that hurt people like me who will see the value of their assets go down? Yes, but it will put our economy on stronger footing in the long run, imo.

Do you disagree with any of that?

I get you want housing values to fall. I am asking what policy you want to see that would make this happen and then how do you see that playing out?

Mortgage interest should not be deductible. It would have no impact on housing affordability or values though. PMI should not be a thing.

Not a tax guy, but didn't the change in the standard deduction eliminate the need to itemize and deduct mortgage interest? At least for non-rich FBGs?

Not a tax guy either but that is my view as well. You need a lot going on well beyond mortgage interest now for your mortgage deduction to matter.

 

[General Malaise]

I get you want housing values to fall. I am asking what policy you want to see that would make this happen and then how do you see that playing out?

My point is that I don't want to see any government policies that help stoke demand or inflate housing prices. Prices are currently on a downward trajectory because prices are too high relative to incomes. I want to see them continue to fall to be more in line with incomes. I don't want them to be made "more affordable" artificially by lowering interest rates (stokes demand and causes rise in prices) or relaxing lending standards (we saw how this plays itself out in 2008) which is what I'm seeing voiced as solutions to the issue.

How do I see this playing out? Lower housing prices means higher affordability at existing interest rates. Investors, who have helped exacerbate price appreciation since Covid, will bail on their investments further increasing supply.

Will this mean pain for those of us who have housing assets? Yes, but we're in a better position to weather the storm.

The 2010's home construction went off the cliff. We built less homes in that decade than any other decade until you got back to the 1930's. The construction pace so far this decade is on the slower side as well with comparable to the 1960's. Population growth has slowed a bit but still is much higher than what we saw in 1930's with 9 million versus almost 23 million.

Higher interest rates will not solve anything. Higher interest rates are not just mortgage rates but mean higher credit card and vehicle loans. I work with a lot of first time homebuyers. I have done a lot of work to try to get FTHB's into homes. I even had a FB group with over 10K in it giving free guidance on credit score improvement with a focus on helping FTHB's (I saw had... I still have it, but FB algorithm changed for some reason and basically killed the group so I don't put much time into now). The two biggest issues I see for these FTHB's? Credit debt and car loans. Established homeowners are not the ones that generally are hurting on those as they have equity that they can tap into and bail out on it. Renters are screwed. Their rent is a sunk cost and they struggle to make progress. Then, once they do, they are still cash strapped because they have put all their money on paying down/off the credit card debt and not saving so they have very little resources to buy a home. Further, higher interest rates come due to one reason: high inflation. Inflation hits the poor and renters much harder than it does wealthier people and home owners. On top of that, interest rates being high fights inflation in one way: killing the economy, When the economy goes south, you get people without jobs and making less money which makes it harder for them to buy homes and which also tends to lower the construction of new build homes.

With the lack of housing, rent comps will continue to remain strong even with property values declining. They will be even more incentivized to hold their property and rent versus sell at a lower value. And in fact, lower property values will further incentivize investors to buy more property as it would be a temporary buying opportunity so that they can increase their portfolio.

The only thing that will actually help is that we build many more homes. That is something Trump pressured the home builders to do recently (last week I believe). High interest rates discourages more new builds while lower interest rates are incentive for builders to build more.

Do the tariffs impact new homebuilding at all?

 

[Chadstroma]

I get you want housing values to fall. I am asking what policy you want to see that would make this happen and then how do you see that playing out?

My point is that I don't want to see any government policies that help stoke demand or inflate housing prices. Prices are currently on a downward trajectory because prices are too high relative to incomes. I want to see them continue to fall to be more in line with incomes. I don't want them to be made "more affordable" artificially by lowering interest rates (stokes demand and causes rise in prices) or relaxing lending standards (we saw how this plays itself out in 2008) which is what I'm seeing voiced as solutions to the issue.

How do I see this playing out? Lower housing prices means higher affordability at existing interest rates. Investors, who have helped exacerbate price appreciation since Covid, will bail on their investments further increasing supply.

Will this mean pain for those of us who have housing assets? Yes, but we're in a better position to weather the storm.

The 2010's home construction went off the cliff. We built less homes in that decade than any other decade until you got back to the 1930's. The construction pace so far this decade is on the slower side as well with comparable to the 1960's. Population growth has slowed a bit but still is much higher than what we saw in 1930's with 9 million versus almost 23 million.

Higher interest rates will not solve anything. Higher interest rates are not just mortgage rates but mean higher credit card and vehicle loans. I work with a lot of first time homebuyers. I have done a lot of work to try to get FTHB's into homes. I even had a FB group with over 10K in it giving free guidance on credit score improvement with a focus on helping FTHB's (I saw had... I still have it, but FB algorithm changed for some reason and basically killed the group so I don't put much time into now). The two biggest issues I see for these FTHB's? Credit debt and car loans. Established homeowners are not the ones that generally are hurting on those as they have equity that they can tap into and bail out on it. Renters are screwed. Their rent is a sunk cost and they struggle to make progress. Then, once they do, they are still cash strapped because they have put all their money on paying down/off the credit card debt and not saving so they have very little resources to buy a home. Further, higher interest rates come due to one reason: high inflation. Inflation hits the poor and renters much harder than it does wealthier people and home owners. On top of that, interest rates being high fights inflation in one way: killing the economy, When the economy goes south, you get people without jobs and making less money which makes it harder for them to buy homes and which also tends to lower the construction of new build homes.

With the lack of housing, rent comps will continue to remain strong even with property values declining. They will be even more incentivized to hold their property and rent versus sell at a lower value. And in fact, lower property values will further incentivize investors to buy more property as it would be a temporary buying opportunity so that they can increase their portfolio.

The only thing that will actually help is that we build many more homes. That is something Trump pressured the home builders to do recently (last week I believe). High interest rates discourages more new builds while lower interest rates are incentive for builders to build more.

Do the tariffs impact new homebuilding at all?

Yes. Half of our lumber comes from Canada. I am sure that tariffs are a contributing factor but home building supplies are still way above pre-COVID levels and really have not come down at all. Tariffs are 100% not the cause as it was the case well before they came along but it certainly also isn't helping bring down the costs.

 

[The Z Machine]

Problem is that no one wants their homes (for the most part).

What data are you using to make this statement?

The last several hundred tenants I've worked with. If it doesn't have quartz and LVP then it might as well be a dog house.

LVP is gross

 

[BassNBrew]

Problem is that no one wants their homes (for the most part).

What data are you using to make this statement?

The last several hundred tenants I've worked with. If it doesn't have quartz and LVP then it might as well be a dog house.

LVP is gross

There's some really nice product now, but I swear in 10 years they'll link it to cancer.

 

[Captain Cranks]

I get you want housing values to fall. I am asking what policy you want to see that would make this happen and then how do you see that playing out?

My point is that I don't want to see any government policies that help stoke demand or inflate housing prices. Prices are currently on a downward trajectory because prices are too high relative to incomes. I want to see them continue to fall to be more in line with incomes. I don't want them to be made "more affordable" artificially by lowering interest rates (stokes demand and causes rise in prices) or relaxing lending standards (we saw how this plays itself out in 2008) which is what I'm seeing voiced as solutions to the issue.

How do I see this playing out? Lower housing prices means higher affordability at existing interest rates. Investors, who have helped exacerbate price appreciation since Covid, will bail on their investments further increasing supply.

Will this mean pain for those of us who have housing assets? Yes, but we're in a better position to weather the storm.

The 2010's home construction went off the cliff. We built less homes in that decade than any other decade until you got back to the 1930's. The construction pace so far this decade is on the slower side as well with comparable to the 1960's. Population growth has slowed a bit but still is much higher than what we saw in 1930's with 9 million versus almost 23 million.

Higher interest rates will not solve anything. Higher interest rates are not just mortgage rates but mean higher credit card and vehicle loans. I work with a lot of first time homebuyers. I have done a lot of work to try to get FTHB's into homes. I even had a FB group with over 10K in it giving free guidance on credit score improvement with a focus on helping FTHB's (I saw had... I still have it, but FB algorithm changed for some reason and basically killed the group so I don't put much time into now). The two biggest issues I see for these FTHB's? Credit debt and car loans. Established homeowners are not the ones that generally are hurting on those as they have equity that they can tap into and bail out on it. Renters are screwed. Their rent is a sunk cost and they struggle to make progress. Then, once they do, they are still cash strapped because they have put all their money on paying down/off the credit card debt and not saving so they have very little resources to buy a home. Further, higher interest rates come due to one reason: high inflation. Inflation hits the poor and renters much harder than it does wealthier people and home owners. On top of that, interest rates being high fights inflation in one way: killing the economy, When the economy goes south, you get people without jobs and making less money which makes it harder for them to buy homes and which also tends to lower the construction of new build homes.

With the lack of housing, rent comps will continue to remain strong even with property values declining. They will be even more incentivized to hold their property and rent versus sell at a lower value. And in fact, lower property values will further incentivize investors to buy more property as it would be a temporary buying opportunity so that they can increase their portfolio.

The only thing that will actually help is that we build many more homes. That is something Trump pressured the home builders to do recently (last week I believe). High interest rates discourages more new builds while lower interest rates are incentive for builders to build more.

We don't have a supply problem. We have an affordability problem. There are enough houses on the market to meet the demand, at least in the areas I'm referring to where affordability waved goodbye in late 2020. However, those looking to sell are still clinging to 2022/23 prices. The market is stuck because the remaining demand is too stretched to afford the current ask. Sellers need to reduce prices to meet what buyers can afford.

What's a better situation for a potential buyer: Use low interest debt to buy a $500,000 home only to see its value fall to $400,000 when a recession does occur, or wait for the market to correct and buy the same house for $400,000 at a future time?

 

[Captain Cranks]

Problem is that no one wants their homes (for the most part).

What data are you using to make this statement?

The last several hundred tenants I've worked with. If it doesn't have quartz and LVP then it might as well be a dog house.

LVP is gross

There's some really nice product now, but I swear in 10 years they'll link it to cancer.

We've got nice LVP which covered our hardwoods. Best decision we could have made with three dogs. I'm always getting compliments on the appearance too.