tarheel1unc
Footballguy
I learned that even if Michael Bennett is the ONLY rb on any team roster, DON'T draft him. 
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I know we're all sharks here but what... (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Franknbeans
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perry147
Footballguy
I disagree your honor I think Shermanator has it correct. In both my money leagues(6 points per TD) the winner had stud QB. Right now the hands down best QB in the league is P. Manning with Palmer a distant 2nd, then a bunch of them together (Bulger, Brady, Brees, etc..) I think if you miss on PM and CP then you can wait but if you get a chance to draft one of those two, even if you have to wait on another RB, do it.
BroadwayG
Footballguy
I learned (or relearned) several things:1. Place all people who misspell player names in the Shark Pool on my ignore list.2. Having a fantasy Super Bowl in week 17 stinks, even if I did win it.3. It feels good to come out ahead in net FF $s.4. Do not draft a QB in the first round 5. Redraft championships are won after round 6 and on the waiver wire.6. Being in over 15 leagues isn't worth the hassle.
5. Redraft championships are won after round 6 and on the waiver wire.6. Being in over 15 leagues isn't worth the hassle.
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Musesboy
Footballguy
1 - You can win with many different strategies. The key is not the strategy but drafting well.2 - Never start any defense against the Colts in any format.3 - Don't blindly start RB/RB unless you are confident in your choices and have reasons to back them up.4 - Win or lose by making your own choices. It takes something away if you win because of someone else's research and it sucks if you lose because you went with advice that conflicted with your own thoughts.
fightingillini
Footballguy
LJ is awesome, and should be the consensus 1st pick next year (assuming Priest doesn't cut into his load too much).Tiki won't be underrated anymore.Gates is definitely worth a 2nd round pick in a pt per catch, TE required league.Beware of anyone coming off of a career year. There are usually overvalued the next year.Don't forget older guys that can still produce.....like Dunn, R Smith, Galloway.You always need depth at RB and QB.....
Things I learned:1. In W/L, I can really get screwed by luck. I had the 2nd highest scoring team, but missed the playoffs. Everyone had great weeks against me.2. Top WRs used to be pretty stable, but there was a lot of churn this year, really making it a crap shoot.3. I am in a 10 team league that starts 3 wrs. We have 16 player rosters. I loaded up on rbs and took 2 defenses (defenses score big in our league). I ended up with only 4 wrs, which is a mistake. Since WRs are a crap shoot, it makes sense to load up on them late in the draft hoping 1 or 2 break out. 4. 5. Steve Smith is a stud and I overlooked him in draft day. I really wasn't in a position to draft him, but he never even entered my mind.Things I already knew:5. I drafted 3rd. The guy drafting 2nd did the delayed stud WR method and had the highest scoring team. He took Alexander, Chad Johnson, and Tory Holt. I took Holmes, Tiki (could not pass him up at 2.08) and was hoping a stud wr would drop to me (Chad, Holt, and Harrison were still on the board). Unfortuately, all were gone, so I took the top of the next tier, Javon Walker.Edited to add: also, going rb-rb really limits you later. In round 3, there was no value at wr, but I felt compelled to draft one.
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WarRedbirds
Footballguy
My favorite mantra
raft the system, not the player.In other words, wrap up the best running games...IE Priest/LJ instead of taking flyers on backup RB's for Houston, SF, Detroit.Drafting the system gets you Seattle and Indianapolis WR's instead of the Andre Johnson/Roy Williams of the world.
raft the system, not the player.In other words, wrap up the best running games...IE Priest/LJ instead of taking flyers on backup RB's for Houston, SF, Detroit.Drafting the system gets you Seattle and Indianapolis WR's instead of the Andre Johnson/Roy Williams of the world.
Nothing new here--but if you have an active league, stocking up on middle of the road RBs (this season) like Mewelde Moore, Deshaun, Droughns, Chris Brown will always make you a viable trading option and enable you to go get that TE or WR you need. These players are also especially useful during the bye weeks. I rather grab theese guys than gamble on the ronald curry's, ty calico, ferguson's and lloyd's that are often available and never work out. Lastly, if you draft a QB with a late bye week (in a start 1 QB league) keep an extra roster space availabel to take a shot on a sleeper/older player (think Glenn or Galloway). If they are unedrwhelming after a few weeks you have the ability to address your needs at that time. Dont want to give away all my hints....lest a leaguemate find them.
Darth Cheney
Footballguy
This is the way to go if you have one of the top three picks in a serpentine draft. I drafted 2nd and got Alexander. In the second and early third when people were taking the 12 - 13 - 14th best RB of the board I got Owens and Holt. Granted Owens attitdue cost me serious WR depth but I would make a grab at 2 of the top 5 WR's again in a second. In the later rounds I got Thomas Jones, FWP and Tatum Bell. I just missed by a couple of picks on Dunn, Foster and LJ. You will always find RB diamonds in the rough in the mid and later rounds. In the first 3 rounds.... take the best player available.
David Yudkin
Footballguy
Different strokes for different folks, but I was just about to post that this year proved to me that taking a QB early is about THE WORST thing to do for a multiplicitude of reasons.Even in a 6 point per TD league for passing TD, in most start 1 QB leagues there is not enough value in taking a QB early. There are A TON of guys that will be drafted ROUNDS AND ROUNDS later that will fare just as well if not better. And IMO QB are more susceptible to injury--making a long-term layoff more of a risk in such an early investment.
This year's Top 10 QB in my 6 pts per TD league this year (and where they were drafted) . . .
Palmer 8th rounder
Brady 7th rounder
PManning 1st rounder
Hasselbeck 8th rounder
EManning 18th rounder
Brees 9th rounder
Bledsoe Undrafted
Green 7th rounder
Collins 7th rounder
Plummer 6th rounder
Even if a QB has a good year, it's almost impossible to predict that he will be far above and beyond other QBs. For example, Manning had a good year but was no way worth a Top 5 pick.
IMO, passing on the early QB makes great sense and instead taking 3 guys later on will normally pay dividends.
Your bad week from Brunell could happen to any QB. Other QB that had a stinker in weeks 14-16 this year included single digit performances from Palmer, PManning (resting), EManning, Bledsoe, Collins, Vick, Favre, McNair, etc.
You can always find decent QB options later on. Late in the season this year, I was able to snag Brad Johnson, Warner, and Frerotte when all hope seemed to be lost.
I have found that it is much more difficult to find RB that get any amount of workload as the season goes on. Sure, there may be a Goings or Gado that comes along, but for the most part most RB are already rostered.
So I would much rather invest that early pick on a RB or WR (maybe even a TE) than a QB, as there will always be QB that won't kill you that are available on the waiver wire. Always. The same cannot be said for RB or WR.
The Duff Man
Footballguy
Stud WR worked well for me in a 12 team redraft (QB, RB, RB and 3 WR/TEs) and a 12 team, 3 keeper Antsports league (can't keep a player drafted in first 3 rounds, sacrifice a pick 2 rounds lower than the round your keeper was drafted)Redraft League - Superbowl Champ1.3 Holmes 2.10 C Johnson3.3 Owens4.10 Dunn5.3 Brown6.10 Moore7.3 Duckett8.10 Kennison9.3 PlummeretcKeeper League - 2nd Place (QB, RB, 2 WR, 1 Flex, TE)1.7 EDGE!2.6 Owens3.7 Coles4.6 Wayne (Keeper)5.7 M Anderson6.6 Benson7.7 Duckett8.6 Bryant9.7 Griese10.6 Delhomme (Keeper)11.7 Witten (Keeper)Key themes: Get your stud RB in rd 1 then a couple of stud WRs in rds 2/3. There are always underrated RBs available in Rds 4-6 like Dunn, Brown, Taylor that can start as your RB #2. These guys are often more of a sure thing than the WRs in these rounds who are often young guys who have "potential" to be top 10. I would do this strategy with every pick before 10th, after that I would probably go RB, WR, RB as the WRs left at the end of Rd 3 are of similar quality as guys available the next three rounds. QB can always wait.
Don't overrate players with "potential". Need to have talent and a good situation before moving a player up your draftboard
Jump on the breakout player as soon as possible. Whoever decided not to "waste" an early waiver pick on Joey Galloway, Willie Parker, Terry Glenn, etc. lost ground rapidly.
Finally, depth is overrated. It's great to cover your butt in case of injuries. But don't fool yourself into thinking that you can play the matchups and guess which of your "solid" players will have the big game this week. In a 2-WR starting lineup, three potential WR2s is no better than one.
Jump on the breakout player as soon as possible. Whoever decided not to "waste" an early waiver pick on Joey Galloway, Willie Parker, Terry Glenn, etc. lost ground rapidly.
Finally, depth is overrated. It's great to cover your butt in case of injuries. But don't fool yourself into thinking that you can play the matchups and guess which of your "solid" players will have the big game this week. In a 2-WR starting lineup, three potential WR2s is no better than one.
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HULLOBUDMAN
Footballguy
For every sucess story you list here there are just as many nightmares, especially in larger leagues. Instead of drafting the guys listed above, what would have happended if you went with a combo of a couple of these late round gems....Farve,Brooks,Harrington,Pennington,Carr,etc?I posted this in another thread similar to this one. For those "up and coming" sharks, ignore everything in this thread, the most important thing is to know your league rules.
Too many people draft by the so called sharks rules. Your starting lineup requirements, scoring and roster size play into the decision making more than anything. I am in a 16 team league that starts QB/RB/WR/WR/FLEX/TE/K/D and only allows 14 roster spots. You can't tell me that the same draft rules apply to that league as the 12 teamer I am in that starts QB/RB/RB/WR/WR/TE/K/D with 18 roster spots.
godeepthreatz1
Footballguy
My RB's were basically busts with McGahee,D.Davis and T.Bell my top 3 early on. I did acquire T.Jones and LJ around Week 6 so obviosuly I had a top RB for the second half of the season.My league starts 3 RB's so the thought for the last few years was get 3 top RB's early or keep all RB's and disregard WR's. Well in 2005 things changed. WR's took my team to the title. S.Smith, C.Johnson, T.Holt and R.Wayne were incredible for me. I knew I was getting a guaranteed 10 out of every WR this year. Gates at TE was proly more valuable than my top 2 RB's which is incredible. I can protect 4 guys and LJ and McGahee are locks but what do I do with my other 2??? I would love to keep Gates becuse he's such a diffrence maker at TE. I think 2 of Holt, Johnson and S.Smith will be the route I go though. I just can't belive how awesome these WR's were this year. My take is this 2005 has changed draft philsophies going into 2006. WR's getr upgraded alot of backs get downgraded.
I drafted WRs earlier and came back to the RB spot far later than normal. WOW I went a year without worrying about the WR position much at all. Any FFer knows this is part of their season, it was so sweet. In one league I lost Javon but....I don't think we ranked RBs correctly last year now. I'm not sure what to do differently.I had Hines Ward in all my leagues and Boldin in most too. In hindsight, I think how could I draft Holt, Ward, and Boldin? Ward's a pro bowler, Boldin's 100 catch guy. Smith and Moss were ranked far too low. Fitz seemed to really fluctuate on draftday IMO. We, everywhere I looked back at, ranked something wrong last year. If I had to guess, I'd say we had the 2nd round being too many RBs but then alot of people start their draft RB+RB so...not sure, curious what you guys think
Judge Smails
Footballguy
Like I said, no doubt Peyton and Carson owners rode them to the playoffs, but how many playoff games, let alone SuperBowls, did they win?
godeepthreatz1
Footballguy
I think with QB's there is about 8 guys that will post about the same numbers, i will make sure I grab 1 of the 8. I won't overvalue Manning or Palmer with TD's 4points in my league. I want 2 stud RB's and 2 stud WR's before my QB.
FinHead
Footballguy
1) My TE's ALWAYS suck. Three years ago, I played a different TE every week and would usually end up with under 1pt for that position. Last year I drated Todd Heap and he rode my bench all season. This year I drafted Gonzo and he was disappointing.2) The Jets really do hate Dolphin fans. I was down by .5 in my Super Bowl and had New England's Defense. All I needed was one more sack during the Jet's last drive, but they put in Vinny and he drove them down the field for a meaningless TD. Because of that ###munch, I lost to my long-time rival in my main league 
Wingnut
Footballguy
I learned:
Always throw trade offers out to desperate teams. You never know what theyll do when they start panicking.
The whole "Ride the hot hand" theory never works for me. I start a guy who has had 2 or 3 good weeks and he puts up a goosegg while the guy I benched scores. This is a guarantee.
I like to set my next weeks lineup on Monday night after the game. I feel at that time I have the best feel for next weeks games. Changing the lineup because of stuff you read throughout the week usually backfires. Unless its an injury substitution or something along those lines, always go with your first instinct on who to start. I cant count the times I switched out a player right before the lineup deadline bacause of something I read during the week, or because of someone's good argument on the forums of why this guy will blow up this week.
Always throw trade offers out to desperate teams. You never know what theyll do when they start panicking.
The whole "Ride the hot hand" theory never works for me. I start a guy who has had 2 or 3 good weeks and he puts up a goosegg while the guy I benched scores. This is a guarantee.
I like to set my next weeks lineup on Monday night after the game. I feel at that time I have the best feel for next weeks games. Changing the lineup because of stuff you read throughout the week usually backfires. Unless its an injury substitution or something along those lines, always go with your first instinct on who to start. I cant count the times I switched out a player right before the lineup deadline bacause of something I read during the week, or because of someone's good argument on the forums of why this guy will blow up this week.
Franknbeans
Footballguy
It really depends on your scoring system. My league scores 6 pts per passing TD but I managed to win the overall and Superbowl championships on the strength of my RB's and Wr's. My QB's performance was the worst in the league this year.
jeff_eaglz
Footballguy
Could not agree more.I've seen 8-14 team leagues on here, so that matters greatly. Talent obviously depletes fast in a 14 team league, not nearly as much (57% less rate, in fact) in 8 team leagues.
WR values increase greatly in PPR leagues. Rod Smith is excellent value in a PPR, despite his TD production (only 6).
Starting rosters matter greatly as well. 2 RB is typical - but do you have 3 WR slots to fill? A flex? A starting TE required? 2 flex? 2 QB?
WRs go up in value if you need 3 instead of 2. RBs go up vs. WRs if (1) no PPR and (2) only 2 WRs start, or (3) you have a flex (or two).
QB influence /value is dependent upon how they score relatively to the rest of your team. If a QB scores 6 for a TD, 1 pt/20 yds passing, and gets no negative points, his value is higher than a league where TDs are 4, INTs are -1, and you get 1pt/50 yds.
QBs are greatly underappreciated in a "start 2 QB" league - especially in leagues with 10+ teams. Finding 2 viable QBs, especially through the bye weeks, is tough.
VBD and DD are great apps - but I never let them dictate my pick. If an injury prone player is the top man on the board, I'll look at the Top 5 at the position I'm targeting and the Top 10 on the board for all positions before deciding.
Last point - hard to go wrong with targeting a Top 5 RB, another from the next 10, and another from the next 10 after that. #1 WRs are valuable - regardless of team.
Mr. Anonymous
Footballguy
You had three of the top four WRs in the league (if not 3 of top 3). In adopting a stud WR plan, I would make sure you take into your account whatever ability you have to repeat this astounding achievement.
Brock Middlebrook
Footballguy
picking the right starting lineup as opposed to the draft is a much bigger factor than I had originally thought.drafting good players, regardless of team/situation/coach is a good source of value. (ie Chambers)
Kit Fisto
Footballguy
"It all averages out".Brilliant post! That's what I was talking about in my post. I did chase points these past few years by playing the guy with the better matchup, or the guy who was ranked higher by so-called experts (who know just as much as I do BTW; they're just giving their opinions).
This past year I went back to a hybrid "consistency" theory like Gravity mentions. He's right. I'd rather have a steady 8 than a 16 one week followed by a 2 the next. End result: won the league.
salmonstud
Footballguy
-Don't draft Bell in the 4th round!-Focus on RB's in offenses that don't utilize RBBC. Grab a stud in the 1st round and take the backup late. LT/Turner, Alexander/Morris, etc., Portis/Betts, Edge/Rhodes, etc. This means you have to take a RB in the 1st round. There seems to be an increasing utilization of the RBBC...making those workhorse RB's that much more valuable.-Don't take a TE other than Gates before the 4th round. Guys like Troupe, LJ Smith will be better if selected after round 7 next year than Shockey, Heap or Gonzo in round 3 or 4.-Stock up on WR's ranked in the 10-40 range.....you will hit on a few like Rod Smith, Galloway, S.Moss did this year.-If you don't get Manning or Palmer in round 2 or McNabb in 3.....wait!-Always select 3 RB's in the 1st 5 rounds in start 2 RB leagues.
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Warpig
Footballguy
I learned not to ever draft any lions players named Kevin Jones, Roy Williams, and Marcus Pollard.I also learned not to draft QB's by the name of Brett Favre, Chad Pennington, or Kurt Warner.Injuries suck! (D-Jax AND T. Holt)Kickers suck! (Vinatieri, Bironas)Finishing the season 3 - 10 sucks and I blame it all on Millen and Mooch!
I learned again not to sacrifice that RB depth at the trade deadline. One 16 team league I moved a RB/QB to pair Steve Smith with Holt and have a tougher starting lineup for the playoffs. Between Edge/Taylor/Dunn, I figured I'd have 2 decent starters. Not once Indy lost.The other league I held off and kept my bench stacked with RB depth. Saved my bacon. Ended up winning this 2nd league.
I learned that once again having a "great draft" makes it very difficult to take fliers and be active on the waiver wire early in the season.Trying to figure out which slow starter or keeper prospect to drop in the first few weeks before injuries start happening is tough.And then I see bad teams hit the jackpot while I'm trying to stay patient with my projections.
Warpig
Footballguy
This is an excellent point. Every year I have great drafts with plenty of depth and atleast one of my players breaks out and seems to carry me. However, this year was my worst year ever (9 year vet). We do an auction style draft so I can pretty much get who I want but instead of dropping all my dough on one or two "studs", I conserve cash and spend wisely getting proven veterans with some "star potential" players to balance out. I drafted Kevin Jones as my #1 RB, Rudi Johnson #2, Chris Brown #3, Ronnie Brown #4, and Mewelde Moore #5...to ME this is a decent stable of backs. I also drafted Favre as my #1 QB, Pennington #2, and Kurt Warner as #3...again, to ME these are good picks for the money I spent on them. My WR's were strong as well: Torry Holt #1, Darrell Jackson #2, Roy Williams #3, and Eric Moulds #4. My TE's were McMichael #1 and Marcus Pollard #2. Kickers were Vinatieri, and my D/ST was Carolina. I didn't bother with waiver wire action because there weren't any players out there that I thought was an upgrade over what I already had (say Willie Parker for example). So I just sat there patiently waiting for my players to hit their strides...and it never happened and I missed out on the better waiver wire players. Ofcourse injuries hurt me (WR's), but stupid coaches (Mooch, Tice) hurt me too with their mind boggling player rotation. I have never had to rely on the waiver wire but it seems like this year that is exactly what I needed but by the time I got to pick, the "gems" were already snagged. Oh well, there's always next year.
Marc Levin
Hangs out with Oscar Zeta Acosta
only if you are in a PPR league does stud WR have a chance of working.Had you taken two of the top 5 WRs this year (TO and Moss being two of them) you'd have been sorely disappointed with your season. CJohn, Harrison and Holt lived up to expectations.
Having top WRs is a very important thing - esp. since th etop WRs distance themselves form th epack every year - but having two of them at the expense of your RB corps may still not be the best use of your high draft picks.
Wingnut
Footballguy
Not neccessarily. In non-pprs it can work, especially if you have a top 3 or 4 pick to secure an ELITE STUD RB. As long as your RB1 is one of the few that perform like 2 RBs (Shaun, LJ, LT, and maybe even Edge), it usually pays off (providing you choose the 2 WRs wisely and have a bit of luck).I took Shaun at pick 3, then took CJ and Walker, and followed those picks with Dunn and F Taylor. Having a top 3 RB allows you to wait a bit on RB2, and you can usually find a decent one in round 4 while everyone else is at the tail end of the WR run, at least thats my experience. Even though I lost Walker week 1, it didnt sting as bad as I thought it would thanks to Shaun's sick numbers. I traded for Branch, and Stallworth finally showed up this year, so my WR corps was still above average with one stud and 2 servicable WR2/3.
But you make a valid point about luck when drafting a supposed top 7 or so WR. I was debating between Horn and Walker, and no matter which one I took, it wouldnt have mattered.
jetpack
Footballguy
I read one piece of advise in the off season that really affected how I drafted. That is: In the first four rounds be sure to pick players who predicably succeed. Sure, sounds vague, but I think what it boils down to is to not pass up any player because you adhere to a particular theory (stud WR, stud RB or whatever) and of those players, be sure they have a history of consistent success. Here's my top 6 draft picks from this past season (drafting in the 3/10 slot):1. Priest Holmes2. Marvin Harrison3. Tory Holt4. Andre Johnson5. Larry Johnson6. Warrick DunnI went with people I felt were absolutely no risk in the first few rounds and skipped those like Moss, TO, Ahman Green, Portis, C-Pep and other standard picks I thought might not be in the best circumstances or on the best teams to succeed this year or might take a half a year to come around. Sure I whiffed on Johnson, but I think 5/6 is what you're gunning for.I used the remainder of my picks on some good risks: Willie Parker in the 9th, Donte Stallworth in the 10th, etc. Then I picked up Eli Manning off waiver wire. My team starter off slow, but I stayed the course and ended up making money by placing 2nd in the league. Anyways, that advise really stuck with me and payed off. I plan to apply it every year.
GregStarling
Footballguy
This is getting more play the 2nd time around
Here is my post from the original thread:
I think this season I've learned more about ff than any of my previous 13 seasons. I think playing in so many high stakes leagues like the WCOFF made me analyze and agonize over every decision I made. Here is my 2006 strategy, please shoot holes in it and post your own.
1. No QB before round 5. Obviously, had we done this last year, we would have an argument with Manning and CPep having such great years, but I think this year we had a regression to the mean. With guys like Palmer, Brunell, Plummer, etc available in the later rounds, I can't see risking a high pick on a QB.
2. Stockpile 2 midlevel QBs. I plan on drafting 2 QBs between rounds 6-12 then probably adding a 3rd veteran with some upside in the last round or two. Taking 2 QBs in this range doubles your chances at hitting on one of the QBs ranked 10-15 that emerge every year and end up in the top 5.
3. Take consistency over potential. For every Fitzgerald, there is a Steve Smith. For every Boldin there is a Glenn. There was a huge debate preseason over Lelie or Rod Smith. It was the classic young WR with upside vs. the old vetran that will give you steady performance argument. What I think is overlooked is that these tried and true players can still bust out late in their careers. ADP wise, Caddy, Arrington, and Dunn were all in the same spot. Caddy was a roller coaster, Arrington busted, and Dunn gave you steady points every week. The point is why take a chance on a rookie?
4. Avoid risky situations. The guys who took any RB on Denver or Minnesota either have been rewarded by guessing right, or, more likely, have had to make decisions with players they drafted in the first 4 rounds they shouldn't have to be making. Will Bell start? Will Anderson start? Well, Anderson is starting, is Bell worth starting too? The guy who drafted Benson in the 4th hopefully drafted Thomas Jones a few rounds later. If not, a wasted pick.
5. Avoid WRs in the first 2-3 rounds It's all about risk reward. You can get similar talent with much less risk in rounds 4-6.
6. Stockpile WRs late, but don't ignore the old guys. One thing I've noticed over the past few years is nearly as many retreads explode as do the young guys. Sure, a WR in year 3 is supposed to break out, but don't necessarily take this "sleeper" over someone who is older. Being in the league 5 or more years shouldn't be a strike against a WR, plenty of WRs who break out have been good for a lot of years before they are great.
7. Handcuff your 1st round RB and maybe even your 2nd and 3rd. Injuries happen, but the production from the #1 guy on a team to the #2 guy on a team is often not as big a drop off as imagined (Larry Johnson). Even when the drop off is significant, (Antowain Smith) he is often times much better than what can be had on the waiver wire. Losing my 1st round pick (McAllister) hasn't ruined my season in a very competitive league becuase I "wasted" a 17th round pick on a scrub. I'm heading into the championship game with Smith or Moats along with Portis. Not as sweet as McAllister and Portis, but I still have a shot because of a couple of backups (one I handcuffed the other I stole in the 20th round) will give me a legit shot in the championship game.
8. Ignore all the above if value presents itself. Obviously, if a player falls to you that has no business still being on the board, you take him. Your draft plan has to be adaptable to your paticular situation.
Here is my post from the original thread:
I think this season I've learned more about ff than any of my previous 13 seasons. I think playing in so many high stakes leagues like the WCOFF made me analyze and agonize over every decision I made. Here is my 2006 strategy, please shoot holes in it and post your own.
1. No QB before round 5. Obviously, had we done this last year, we would have an argument with Manning and CPep having such great years, but I think this year we had a regression to the mean. With guys like Palmer, Brunell, Plummer, etc available in the later rounds, I can't see risking a high pick on a QB.
2. Stockpile 2 midlevel QBs. I plan on drafting 2 QBs between rounds 6-12 then probably adding a 3rd veteran with some upside in the last round or two. Taking 2 QBs in this range doubles your chances at hitting on one of the QBs ranked 10-15 that emerge every year and end up in the top 5.
3. Take consistency over potential. For every Fitzgerald, there is a Steve Smith. For every Boldin there is a Glenn. There was a huge debate preseason over Lelie or Rod Smith. It was the classic young WR with upside vs. the old vetran that will give you steady performance argument. What I think is overlooked is that these tried and true players can still bust out late in their careers. ADP wise, Caddy, Arrington, and Dunn were all in the same spot. Caddy was a roller coaster, Arrington busted, and Dunn gave you steady points every week. The point is why take a chance on a rookie?
4. Avoid risky situations. The guys who took any RB on Denver or Minnesota either have been rewarded by guessing right, or, more likely, have had to make decisions with players they drafted in the first 4 rounds they shouldn't have to be making. Will Bell start? Will Anderson start? Well, Anderson is starting, is Bell worth starting too? The guy who drafted Benson in the 4th hopefully drafted Thomas Jones a few rounds later. If not, a wasted pick.
5. Avoid WRs in the first 2-3 rounds It's all about risk reward. You can get similar talent with much less risk in rounds 4-6.
6. Stockpile WRs late, but don't ignore the old guys. One thing I've noticed over the past few years is nearly as many retreads explode as do the young guys. Sure, a WR in year 3 is supposed to break out, but don't necessarily take this "sleeper" over someone who is older. Being in the league 5 or more years shouldn't be a strike against a WR, plenty of WRs who break out have been good for a lot of years before they are great.
7. Handcuff your 1st round RB and maybe even your 2nd and 3rd. Injuries happen, but the production from the #1 guy on a team to the #2 guy on a team is often not as big a drop off as imagined (Larry Johnson). Even when the drop off is significant, (Antowain Smith) he is often times much better than what can be had on the waiver wire. Losing my 1st round pick (McAllister) hasn't ruined my season in a very competitive league becuase I "wasted" a 17th round pick on a scrub. I'm heading into the championship game with Smith or Moats along with Portis. Not as sweet as McAllister and Portis, but I still have a shot because of a couple of backups (one I handcuffed the other I stole in the 20th round) will give me a legit shot in the championship game.
8. Ignore all the above if value presents itself. Obviously, if a player falls to you that has no business still being on the board, you take him. Your draft plan has to be adaptable to your paticular situation.
Marc Levin
Hangs out with Oscar Zeta Acosta
I completely agree - but this is very far from what is considered "stud-WR" theory.Generally, if oyu have a top-5 RB, taking two WRs is not that costly.
If you are drafting 10/11/12 in a 12 team, and you take two WRs, that is stud-WR theory.
I also believe stud WR theory works a little better in PPR leagues of 14 teams or more since the RB pool can become sketchy after RB 8/10 whie the top-5 WRs are generally a very safe bet.
Mr. Anonymous
Footballguy
Yes.
nerangers
Footballguy
Kit's comment hit me the most. The web is a great tool for helping those that need the info, but really can cause you to second guess yourself. This was my first year subscribing to a paid website for info...and there was just too much of it! Even this site can contridict itself, since it has so many different writers (I ended up mainly reading the passing and rushing matchups).
I did not learn anything new this year, but some I need to implement again.
1. Multiple League Play - If you play in multiple leagues, treat each league differently. Do not talk yourself out of playing a certain player just because you are going against him as well. Play each league as if it is the only league you are in.
2. Playoffs - Start planning accordingly for the playoffs around week 10 if you are going to make a run for them. I made the playoffs in my leagues this year, but struggled Week 16 (we only do FA pickups till week 14 in most of my leagues). Manning hurt week 16 in my dynasty league where we play multiple QBs. I should have grabbed Sorgi vs the QB I did (who ended up not starting that week at all!)
3. Consistency - Consistency is the key. Good players have the potential to do well no matter what the matchup is. Don't overthink the Match-up.
4. Luck! - There is a lot of luck in Fantasy Football...and not much you can do about it!!! For my Super Bowl week, I would have won on paper, but the game is played on the grid iron.
5. Waivers - Depending on your league size, you can always find a good matchup on the WW for Defense. (this year teams going against the Jets, Texans, and SF did well).
6. Veterans - For Dynasty and Keeper leagues, remember the final goal is still to win the Super Bowl the current year. Don't always be looking so far out that you let good Veterans go.
just my
I did not learn anything new this year, but some I need to implement again.
1. Multiple League Play - If you play in multiple leagues, treat each league differently. Do not talk yourself out of playing a certain player just because you are going against him as well. Play each league as if it is the only league you are in.
2. Playoffs - Start planning accordingly for the playoffs around week 10 if you are going to make a run for them. I made the playoffs in my leagues this year, but struggled Week 16 (we only do FA pickups till week 14 in most of my leagues). Manning hurt week 16 in my dynasty league where we play multiple QBs. I should have grabbed Sorgi vs the QB I did (who ended up not starting that week at all!)
3. Consistency - Consistency is the key. Good players have the potential to do well no matter what the matchup is. Don't overthink the Match-up.
4. Luck! - There is a lot of luck in Fantasy Football...and not much you can do about it!!! For my Super Bowl week, I would have won on paper, but the game is played on the grid iron.
5. Waivers - Depending on your league size, you can always find a good matchup on the WW for Defense. (this year teams going against the Jets, Texans, and SF did well).
6. Veterans - For Dynasty and Keeper leagues, remember the final goal is still to win the Super Bowl the current year. Don't always be looking so far out that you let good Veterans go.
just my
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David Yudkin
Footballguy
For better or for worse, I make the assumption that I will make the playoffs from before the season starts, so I plan accordingly and look at matchups for the playoffs as a consideration for who to draft.
nerangers
Footballguy
Agreed David...I was talking with regards to the Waiver Wires. We have about two weeks that if an injury or benching happens (games week 14 and 15), you can not just go out and pickup another player. With only one pickup a week, you really need to be thinking about this.
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ExaltedOne
Footballguy
Some random thoughts:I learned that injuries suck. At some point in this year I had the following players:Jamal Lewis, Carnell Williams, Domanick Davis, Brian Westbrook, Nate Burleson, and Javon WalkerTrades rule. I was still able to have a great season despite those guys and TO but it wasn't easy. Don't be afraid to send out alot of offers, you'd be surprised how silly some people can be.Luck has alot to do with it. Our champion this year inherited a team with LT2, Dillon, Barber, Anderson and Holt so he didn't really have to do much. Needless to say he stomped me in week 16.Donovan McNabb is injury prone. So is Domanick Davis.The sophomore slump is REAL.Don't draft anyone on the cover of Madden. If you have a guy on a dynasty team who makes the cover, trade him away ASAP.This year's top kicker will fall out of the top 10 next year. See Vinatieri and Feely from years past.You can get great kickers off of waivers, so wait until the last round to draft one.This doesn't apply to tight ends. There are only a few worth having and they make a difference.
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I learned that 2 RBs on good days (Tiki Barber and Mike Anderson, Week 15) can beat the team with the Best FF RB (Alexander) and the Best FF QB (Palmer). I won the regular season and led the league heading into the playoffs. In Week 15, I lost that game which was decided on a tie-breaker. I then headed to the consolation game which I easily won. Why couldn't the Chiefs tackle??? Why did they let Barber have 220 yards! I would've won had Barber ONLY had 200 yards. Why, Vermeil, Why?!?
