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IDP Projections are live (1 Viewer)

Aaron Rudnicki

Keep Walking™
Staff member
Dodds started a thread in the shark pool, but figured I'd get some discussion going here as well.

DL

LB

DB

feel free to offer any thoughtful critiques, or just get some discussion going on any players that might seem a little off to you.

 
Jason Taylor - Definitely has the talent to be #1, but there's an outside chance he could be coded as a LB in '06. This "outside chance" would make me hesitant to use an early pick to take him.

Kyle Vanden Bosch - Call me Mr Negativity but I just can't see Vanden Bosch repeating last year's numbers. Why? Three reasons: 1) he's rehabbing from a serious shoulder surgery, 2) he will be platooning with LaBoy and Odom and 3) he's no longer playing for a contract after signing his 4-year $22mm deal. I would honestly be surprised if Vanden Bosch topped 8 sacks.

Charles Grant - Good call on the rebound. Howard will no longer be platooning with both Grant and Smith.

James Hall - In five full NFL seasons, Hall has topped five sacks only once ('04). With Kalimba Edwards re-signed and Cory Redding taking some snaps at DE, I just don't see Hall netting nine sacks, let alone 70 tackles (career high of 62 tackles in '02). An outside factor could be Hall's role in the whole "Mangini works us too hard" situation we're currently in. If Hall gets on Mangini's bad side, the DE starters could be Redding and Edwards with Hall watching from the sidelines.

Will Smith - I could easily see him jumping into the Top-10. Howard is gone and the Saints' improved offense should force the opposition to play from behind more often in '06.

Erasmus James - Much like Charles Grant, I like the projection. He should easily crack the Top-30 this year.

Vonnie Holliday - I wouldn't dream of taking Holliday before guys like Alex Brown, Justin Smith, Javon Kearse, Travis LaBoy, Andre Carter, etc.

Bryan Thomas - Will probably be coded as a 3-4 OLB this year.

Travis LaBoy - I'm making the call...he will outperform Vanden Bosch this year.

Andre Carter - I would not be surprised if he sneaks into the Top-30 this year (...Top-20 if your league awards heavy for sacks).

Grant Wistrom - Nice ranking. This guy is toast and no longer belongs in the Top-40 of yesteryear.

Kevin Carter - This guy will outperform Holliday who's ranked 20-spots higher.

 
mario williams? is nowhere to be found, this has to be an over sight.

edit---that's more like it.....thanks

 
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Ray Lewis - Way to man up! I like the call. Don't cave when everybody starts complaining.

Lofa Tatupu - The Zach Thomas of the 21st Century has amazing instincts, but I think he played a little out of his league in '05. The addition of Julian Peterson and the rapid development of LeRoy Hill may hurt his stats this year. I'll probably regreat typing this, but I would grab a handful of guys before Tatupu.

Nick Barnett - He deserves a Top-10 slot but the drafting of Hawk and especially Hodge will cause me to shy away. If Hodge develops into the true MLB the Pack needs, Barnett will be moved to SLB and will be begging for a Top-20 finish in stats.

Gary Brackett - I just don't see it again. I know Thornton is gone and Brackett is a 3-down LB, but I just can't take this guy before the likes of Brooks, Morgan, Farrior, Spikes, Hawk, Pierce, etc.

Sam Cowart - No way! Ain't gonna happen. I don't see him finishing in the Top-30, let alone outscoring his 2-down LB counterpart, Trotter.

Karlos Dansby - Top-15 if moved to MLB.

Takeo Spikes - Top-15 if recovered from Achilles injury and playing WLB in the Bills' Cover-2.

Demorrio Williams - Bad info here. Great stats last year, but the guy was lost many times. He'll be riding the pine behind Brooking, Hartwell and Boley this year. If Hartwell doesn't rebound from his injury, Brooking will be moved to MLB and Williams will have Top-30 value again as the WLB.

Julian Peterson - I'm not sure if anybody knows the answer yet, but I would assume Peterson will play SLB while Hill plays WLB. If Peterson plays his normal SLB position, his estimated 110 tackles is incorrect. Peterson has never topped 100 tackles in his career, even when he was the 49ers only playmaker. Now...he much contend with Tatupu and Hill for the stats. I could, however, see Peterson having more than three sacks.

Cato June - I would honestly take this guy before Gary Brackett who's 20-spots higher.

Chad Greenway - I would take fellow rookie, Ernie Sims, before Greenway. Greenway isn't exactly competing against non-talented LB's on the Vikes roster (Henderson, D Thomas, Harris, Leber, etc).

Shelton Quarles - He'll probably finish in this area, but the presence of Barrett Rudd has to scare owners.

Lance Briggs - I don't see him falling out of the Top-30. He has had double-digits in PD's the last two years, but FBG's are projecting less than 1/2 this number ?!?!

Teddy Lehman - Will be begging to be Top-50 if he lands the SLB gig in DET. Sims and Boss will be engulfing all the stats from their WLB and MLB positions.

Keith Brooking - At #42 ?!?! Seriously ??

Derrick Johnson - This guy is too talented not to crack the Top-40.

James Allen - This guy probably won't even be starting in '06, let alone finishing #51 overall.

Boss Bailey - Yeah, he's fragile. But if he stays healthy and playing either MLB or WLB, a #56 ranking could be cut in half.

Matt McCoy - Currently sitting at #89, but could leap into the Top-40 if he lands the WLB and 3-down job in Philly.

Colby Bockwoldt - Currently sitting at #102. With Watson on his way out of town, Bockwoldt is the penciled starting MLB. I don't like Bockwoldt, but any starting MLB deserves to be ranked in the single-digits. I would take him near the Top-50 (IMO, replace James Allen with Bockwoldt).

 
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42 Bob Sanders IND 76 25 0.0 1 1 1 5 101.5

Sanders confuses me. People rank him very highly for dynasty rankings, then we see him projected as DB42 for this season.

Projecting LBs this early is a little weird since positions haven't shaken out yet.

 
some of these rankings are laughable.....seems like they were just run through a program that bumped up a certain % from last year

no chance that Demorrio Williams is at #26, unless you can predict some sort of injury. He'll be riding the pine all year.

 
Players I have ranked higher:

Quarles. In my IDP leagues' scoring system he was the #7 LB. In FBG's, he was 13th. Everyone said Ruud would put him on the bench last year... and it didn't happen. At #38, I think he's ranked too low, as I only see a small dropoff from last year to this. A drop to 20 to 25 seems more reasonable to me.

Thomas Howard- If he wins that WLB spot in Oakland, his numbers will be higher than Danny Clark's at the SLB spot. 99 for Howard just seems wat too low, considering Clark is at 52. Howard could crack the top thirty.

Peter Sirmon- The jury is still out, but if he wins that MLB spot, he's garanteed to be top thirty. He has competion, lots of it, and maybe that ranking of 73 is a hedge due to the uncertainty of the Titans' MLB spot.

Brooking- The guy is a stud, whether he's at MLB or WLB.... 42 is too low.

Players I have lower:

Vilma- I still believe his numbers will go down in the predominant 3-4 scheme the Jets will run. IF they use him like Miami uses Thomas, he may get enough big plays to offset the loss of tackle stats. I have him 6th until I see more in the preseason.

Trotter and Cowart- a couple of two down backers that won't attain those kind of numbers.

Brooking- As others have said, it looks likely he'll be collecting more splinters than tackles.

 
Expect many of the controversial players to be spotlighted or discussed in detail over the coming weeks.

Aaron posted the projections to get some discussion going. I appreciate the opinions on some of these players, but it'd be better for the discussion if those who agree/disagree provide opinions for discussion as Weiner Dog did rather than to say "some of them are laughable".

I am not involved in the projections in any way. I do a rough version every year to begin the ranking process, but I'm much more of a tier guy - especially since the total points column is so much more telling than the 1-50 ranking in my mind. Too often you'll look at the total points column to find that 5 tackles or 1 sack could alter a player's ranking quite a bit.

Some observations of mine.

DL

I think this is the season that both Terrell Suggs and Will Smith make the leap to stud status. Both should have healthy solid DE opposite to take some of the heat off. Again, the projections make them look worse than they appear. Swap a sack anywhere from 5-13 and the rankings are flipped upside down.

Watch out for Luis Castillo. Once Shawne Merriman entered the lineup on the same side in Week 7, Castillo began consistently producing very good numbers for a 3-4 DE. He may well be the next Aaron Smith, Orpheus Roye.

LB

Disagree with John on a lot of points here. I'm certainly not down on Ray Lewis, but I wouldn't project him well ahead of the second tier of backers. Scheme issues aside, I doubt he outtackles Vilma and Edwards. Agree on the comments about Cowart. The projection is possible if he stays healthy for a full season - which is what John is asked to do - but guh. Demorrio is defensible if you feel Hartwell won't recover but everything I've seen suggests he'll be cleared for camp. Strongly disagree on the 85 solo tackle projection for Julian Peterson. Even if he somehow aligns on the weak side frequently, I can't see more than 70. And Brooking is way, way, way too low. The WLB spot is the best fantasy spot in the Falcon defense, and Brooking should easily post 90 plus tackles there and contribute the same number of blitz/coverage stats he has in the past.

That said, as Tick brought up, it's nigh impossible to project LB stats at this stage with all the uncertainty right now due to recovering players, scheme changes, rookies pressing for time, etc.

DB

John has always been a safety guy and for the most part I agree with the overall picture and how the safeties broke down. But Nate Clements will be a top 15 DB this season in the Tampa-2 in nearly all scoring systems and I'd significantly bump Antoine Winfield and Terrence McGee for many of the same reasons. I also think that Lawyer Milloy will significantly outperform that projection. No reason he can't approach 75 solos with a sack or three as Bryan Scott did two years back. And I think Chris Gamble will continue to improve - he could hit 70 plus tackles as well.

 
Players I have ranked higher:

Quarles. In my IDP leagues' scoring system he was the #7 LB. In FBG's, he was 13th. Everyone said Ruud would put him on the bench last year... and it didn't happen. At #38, I think he's ranked too low, as I only see a small dropoff from last year to this. A drop to 20 to 25 seems more reasonable to me.

Thomas Howard- If he wins that WLB spot in Oakland, his numbers will be higher than Danny Clark's at the SLB spot. 99 for Howard just seems wat too low, considering Clark is at 52. Howard could crack the top thirty.

Peter Sirmon- The jury is still out, but if he wins that MLB spot, he's garanteed to be top thirty. He has competion, lots of it, and maybe that ranking of 73 is a hedge due to the uncertainty of the Titans' MLB spot.

Nah.  Won't be a three down player in all likelihood which severely limits his production.  I'm still interested in seeing what a solid MLB can do in Tennessee, but I don't think Sirmon is an obvious upgrade over Kassell, Boiman, Calmus, etc.

Brooking- The  guy is a stud, whether he's at MLB or WLB.... 42 is too low.

Players I have lower:

Vilma- I still believe his numbers will go down in the predominant 3-4 scheme the Jets will run. IF they use him like Miami uses Thomas, he may get enough big plays to offset the loss of tackle stats. I have him 6th until I see more in the preseason.

Trotter and Cowart- a couple of two down backers that won't attain those kind of numbers.

Brooking- As others have said, it looks likely he'll be collecting more splinters than tackles.

Assume you mean Demorrio Williams here.
All good points. Commented on Sirmon and Williams above. We'll still agree to disagree on Quarles. :)
 
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Players I have ranked higher:

Quarles. In my IDP leagues' scoring system he was the #7 LB. In FBG's, he was 13th. Everyone said Ruud would put him on the bench last year... and it didn't happen. At #38, I think he's ranked too low, as I only see a small dropoff from last year to this. A drop to 20 to 25 seems more reasonable to me.

Thomas Howard- If he wins that WLB spot in Oakland, his numbers will be higher than Danny Clark's at the SLB spot. 99 for Howard just seems wat too low, considering Clark is at 52. Howard could crack the top thirty.

Peter Sirmon- The jury is still out, but if he wins that MLB spot, he's garanteed to be top thirty. He has competion, lots of it, and maybe that ranking of 73 is a hedge due to the uncertainty of the Titans' MLB spot.

Nah.  Won't be a three down player in all likelihood which severely limits his production.  I'm still interested in seeing what a solid MLB can do in Tennessee, but I don't think Sirmon is an obvious upgrade over Kassell, Boiman, Calmus, etc.

Brooking- The  guy is a stud, whether he's at MLB or WLB.... 42 is too low.

Players I have lower:

Vilma- I still believe his numbers will go down in the predominant 3-4 scheme the Jets will run. IF they use him like Miami uses Thomas, he may get enough big plays to offset the loss of tackle stats. I have him 6th until I see more in the preseason.

Trotter and Cowart- a couple of two down backers that won't attain those kind of numbers.

Brooking- As others have said, it looks likely he'll be collecting more splinters than tackles.

Assume you mean Demorrio Williams here.
All good points. Commented on Sirmon and Williams above. We'll still agree to disagree on Quarles. :)
LOL! Yeah.... I meant Williams! I'm not really up on Sirmon as much as I'd like to be. I got him CHEAP this offseason, on the chance he would be the starting MLB. If he wins it, I hope he's a decent bye week fill-in. Jene, you think he's a two down backer at best if he starts at MLB? He was on the outside last year, if I'm not mistaken. Still, I think the Titans D spends a lot of time on the field this year. I've got one contract year left on Quarles! That particular team of mine has a real shot at the title this year. I hope, and pray, that yer wrong, Jene! If he can come close to last year's numbers.... however, I did have a great LB draft for that team.... Greenway, Lawson, Hodge.

 
LOL! Yeah.... I meant Williams! I'm not really up on Sirmon as much as I'd like to be. I got him CHEAP this offseason, on the chance he would be the starting MLB. If he wins it, I hope he's a decent bye week fill-in. Jene, you think he's a two down backer at best if he starts at MLB? He was on the outside last year, if I'm not mistaken. Still, I think the Titans D spends a lot of time on the field this year.

I've got one contract year left on Quarles! That particular team of mine has a real shot at the title this year. I hope, and pray, that yer wrong, Jene! If he can come close to last year's numbers.... however, I did have a great LB draft for that team.... Greenway, Lawson, Hodge.
Unfortunately, I'm wrong plenty. Now that I have to put up or shut up, I'm hoping I'm wrong less often.Sirmon was a three down guy last year, but I don't think he stays on the field over either Bulluck or Thornton. I also wouldn't be shocked to see Tulloch win that job relatively soon.

Quarles had as good a season last year as Hardy Nickerson did in his prime. I just don't think it's sustainable in that defense. I'd say the same about Gary Brackett as well. But with Brooks declining slightly, Quarles will be in position to make some plays he wouldn't otherwise. In any event, the difference between 25 and 35 isn't likely too many points in raw production terms.

 
Everyone said Ruud would put him on the bench last year... and it didn't happen.
I don't remember it that way... as I remember it, last year everyone was saying it would take a year before he pushed Quarles aside.
 
First of all I want to thank you guys for being civilized and constructive in all your comments. This is some good stuff! Our readers are some very tough cookies because you all know the game so well and are just plain sharp. I/we appreciate your feedback.

There are always a ton of adjustments and these are the first run after all. After reading everyone's comments I will take a longer look at many of the guys mentioned and want to thank you all for pointing out things that seem questionable. There is no doubt that I will be wrong about some guys but there are a lot I will be right about as well. Undoubtedly there will be a ton of tweaks between now and August as situations settle etc.

When you look at a ranking based strictly on projections keep in mind that it is not a true "ranking". It doesn't allow for consideration of extremely important things like how much confidence I have in a certain projection or the consistency of a player.

Let me address a few of the guys/comments.

It's been 3 years since Brooking reached 90 solo tackles so I think some of you may be a little too giddy about him. That said, I am a little low on his big play stats and would certainly draft him much higher than #42. That will be adjusted on the next run.

I completely disagree with the comments that Demorrio Williams looked lost last year. He was a rookie who made some mistakes but he made a lot of impressive plays and improved greatly as the season went on. I don't know or care if Hartwell comes back healthy. He totaled a whopping 16-6-0 in the five games he started last year and looked bad. Even if he is healthy he is a 2 down player while Williams will stay on the field in passing situations. This was happening last year even before Hartwell went down. I may back off a little on my projections for Williams but I believe (at least at this point) that he will be a top 30 LB again this season.

Sam Cowart is not a great player and is an injury risk but look at the situation. He's the MLB on a defense that is in transition and isn't very good on paper. He has a pair of solid tackles in front of him and only Wali Rainer behind him. Wong won't be a serious contender for a long while with the injury, Greenwood is no threat and Ryans is a WLB (though it wouldn't surprise me to see them move him inside). The Texans defenders were credited with 849 solo tackles last season. Even if they improve greatly there will probably be close to 800 again this year. I have to project SOMEONE to make them, and right now Cowart is in the spot most likely to do so.

If Mario William is missing there must be a glitch somewhere. I will have to check into that and see why he doesn't show up.

I don't believe Colby Bockwoldt will survive training camp as the starter and certainly not the entire season. Keep an eye on Fincher who was a tackling machine in college.

The Lions LB situation is a disaster to try and project right now. Even they don't know where anyone is going to play. Again I have to project someone to make the tackles. The rookie is the only one who hasn't proven to be injury prone and he doesn't seem a candidate for the SLB spot so he gets top billing... for now.

Derrick Johnson finished last year right around #40 in most scoring systems. He should improve but I wasn't high on him last year and I'm not high on him now. Belong in the top 40... yes he probably does...

Chad Greenway has all but been anointed the Vikings left (weak side) LB already. All the competition they are talking about is at the other two positions.

Lance Briggs is a solid and consistent LB3 but he doesn't make a lot of big plays and his upside is limited so long as Urlacher is there. I personally wouldn't take him as a top 30 LB but you have a good point on the PD numbers. I missed on that one. Good call.

I'm not high on Julian Peterson either but right now he is working at left (weak) OLB and if he stays there (and doesn't get hurt) he could very well meet my projections even with Lofa there. The Seahawks don't rush their WLB very often so if he switches positions (which could very well happen) the sacks will go up and the tackles will come down. You can't even look at his career numbers. He has been injured often while playing SLB in a 4-3 and then OLB in a 3-4. You are comparing apples to oranges. Look at the player himself and then the production that has come from the position he currently holds.

Takeo Spikes hasn't posted more than 70 solo stops since he came to Buffalo and he's coming off a serious injury. He might make the top 20 but I wouldn't bet on it. And he's inconsistent.

Karlos Dansby top 15 if moved to MLB... You Betcha! :yes: But right now he's still an SLB :cry:

Nothing has changed with the Indy front 7 so I see no reason for Brackett not to repeat. I like him better than June from a consistency standpoint but agree June should be closer.

Packers linebackers may present some interesting questions down the road but right now there is no reason at all to think Barnett will move from the middle. Hawks could put a dent in his numbers but the Packers scheme is still built around Barnett and the MLB position.

My Man Ray.. Don't worry, I won't back off this one. He is hacked off over hearing the doubters and has something to prove. He's a competitor and one of the best to ever play the game. Now that he has the big man up front that he lobbied for, there are no excuses and I don't think he will need to make any. (P.S. JB if you want to trade him back to me in NAFFA I'm game :shock: )

You rank Bob Sanders high because when he is healthy he is a very consistent producer. At the end of the year his totals may not look so huge but you can count on him to produce every time he plays. If only he can stay healthy!

"some of these rankings are laughable.....seems like they were just run through a program that bumped up a certain % from last year"

How else would you go about making projections? You look at history of the player, the position. Then you look at what has changed with him and/or around him. Then you make your projections up or down whatever % you deem fitting based upon all considerations. I find this statement a little "laughable".

"Trotter and Cowart- a couple of two down backers that won't attain those kind of numbers".

Twice in the past three years Trotter has broken the 90 solo make including 102 last year. Granted the Eagles should rebound and his numbers drop a little but he has been very productive for a "2 down LB" in the past. Incidentally the Eagles didn't pull him all the time on 3rd down last year and probably won't again this year so he isn't necessarily a 2 down LB.

It's way too early to get a good read on the Raiders LB situation. I agree with the comments about Howard but there are some speculating that they won't even start him this year and will continue to use their "big nickel" base defense with Gibson playing SS up in the box and Michael Huff replacing Renaldo Hill as the "floating safety". We'll have to see on this one.

Shelton Quarles will be 35 years old. In '05 he produced 29 more solo tackles than any other year of his career. It was a fluke, don't count on it happening again. Especially considering the Bucks love Ruud who is no longer a rookie.

I have to agree with JB to an extent on his comments about the group of cover 2 corners. Those guys should probably be bumped a little but corners are oh so inconsistent from year to year. Winfield for example, '02, 51 solo stops, '03, 94. '04, 64 solos, '05, 89. So is this a 66 year or a 90? You don't have that problem so much with good dependable safeties. Last year was the first time Nate Clements EVER reached 60 solo stops so should we trust him to hit 80+ again? I don't, cover 2 or not.

Thanks again to everyone for the comments. You have given me some things to chew on and study before the next update.

I'm already chomping for some :football:

 
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P.S. James Allen at #51 is a glitch. You are correct he doesn't belong there. I'll figure that one out for the update.

 
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Sam Cowart is not a great player and is an injury risk but look at the situation.

You rank Bob Sanders high because when he is healthy he is a very consistent producer. At the end of the year his totals may not look so huge but you can count on him to produce every time he plays. If only he can stay healthy!
Those seem like different approaches. If Sanders is knocked down due to fragility, why not Cowart?
 
Sam Cowart is not a great player and is an injury risk but look at the situation.

You rank Bob Sanders high because when he is healthy he is a very consistent producer. At the end of the year his totals may not look so huge but you can count on him to produce every time he plays. If only he can stay healthy!
Those seem like different approaches. If Sanders is knocked down due to fragility, why not Cowart?
I never said anything about knocking Sanders down. All I said is that he ranks higher than he projects because he is so consistent.
 
Sam Cowart is not a great player and is an injury risk but look at the situation.

You rank Bob Sanders high because when he is healthy he is a very consistent producer. At the end of the year his totals may not look so huge but you can count on him to produce every time he plays. If only he can stay healthy!
Those seem like different approaches. If Sanders is knocked down due to fragility, why not Cowart?
I never said anything about knocking Sanders down. All I said is that he ranks higher than he projects because he is so consistent.
Ah, I get it now. Thanks for the clarification.
 
I completely disagree with the comments that Demorrio Williams looked lost last year. He was a rookie who made some mistakes but he made a lot of impressive plays and improved greatly as the season went on. I don't know or care if Hartwell comes back healthy. He totaled a whopping 16-6-0 in the five games he started last year and looked bad. Even if he is healthy he is a 2 down player while Williams will stay on the field in passing situations. This was happening last year even before Hartwell went down. I may back off a little on my projections for Williams but I believe (at least at this point) that he will be a top 30 LB again this season.

All this happened as a starting player though. Unless he beats out Michael Boley for the SLB role or Hartwell isn't recovered enough to regain his 2 down MLB role, Williams will be a situational player. Hartwell may not be very effective but he'll be on the field if healthy. It sure looks like the coaching staff feels Boley is the better option on the strong side. Williams needs some breaks to get on the field. If he does, I agree, he's a top 30 player easily.

I don't believe Colby Bockwoldt will survive training camp as the starter and certainly not the entire season. Keep an eye on Fincher who was a tackling machine in college.

We'll see about this one. Buckwoldt, Grant/Smith (although drafting Bush may have spared Grant), and the corners have been the only ones to escape the wrath of the new coaching staff so far. I'd keep an eye on Fincher as well, but that guy couldn't beat out McKinnon last year so I'm much more skeptical than this time last season.

Lance Briggs is a solid and consistent LB3 but he doesn't make a lot of big plays and his upside is limited so long as Urlacher is there. I personally wouldn't take him as a top 30 LB but you have a good point on the PD numbers. I missed on that one. Good call.

I wouldn't sell Briggs too short here, John. His upside will be limited with Urlacher there. But he had over 80 solos, 2 sacks, 2 INT, and double digit passes defended in the Tampa-2. The defense tends to spill things to the weak side and with Lovie using Urlacher much more aggressively than the typical Tampa-2 Mike, he'll get plenty of opportunities all on three downs. Not a LB1, but I think you can easily double his PD numbers and draft him as a top 25-30 guy.

I'm not high on Julian Peterson either but right now he is working at left (weak) OLB and if he stays there (and doesn't get hurt) he could very well meet my projections even with Lofa there. The Seahawks don't rush their WLB very often so if he switches positions (which could very well happen) the sacks will go up and the tackles will come down. You can't even look at his career numbers. He has been injured often while playing SLB in a 4-3 and then OLB in a 3-4. You are comparing apples to oranges. Look at the player himself and then the production that has come from the position he currently holds.

Peterson is the WLB? Really? I missed that if true. And I'm pretty sure it's the right side backer that's aligned on the weak side anyway.

My Man Ray.. Don't worry, I won't back off this one. He is hacked off over hearing the doubters and has something to prove. He's a competitor and one of the best to ever play the game. Now that he has the big man up front that he lobbied for, there are no excuses and I don't think he will need to make any. (P.S. JB if you want to trade him back to me in NAFFA I'm game :shock: )

I'd deal him to you immediately - except I traded him for LT three years ago. :D Want Demorrio instead???

"some of these rankings are laughable.....seems like they were just run through a program that bumped up a certain % from last year"

How else would you go about making projections? You look at history of the player, the position. Then you look at what has changed with him and/or around him. Then you make your projections up or down whatever % you deem fitting based upon all considerations. I find this statement a little "laughable".

:goodposting: (JB)

It's way too early to get a good read on the Raiders LB situation. I agree with the comments about Howard but there are some speculating that they won't even start him this year and will continue to use their "big nickel" base defense with Gibson playing SS up in the box and Michael Huff replacing Renaldo Hill as the "floating safety". We'll have to see on this one.

I'd love to see this - Gibson's a tease and Hill put up pretty nice stats in that role last year. Huff would represent a big upgrade and be big value in dynasty leagues.

I have to agree with JB to an extent on his comments about the group of cover 2 corners. Those guys should probably be bumped a little but corners are oh so inconsistent from year to year. Winfield for example, '02, 51 solo stops, '03, 94. '04, 64 solos, '05, 89. So is this a 66 year or a 90? You don't have that problem so much with good dependable safeties. Last year was the first time Nate Clements EVER reached 60 solo stops so should we trust him to hit 80+ again? I don't, cover 2 or not.

Any RCB who's willing to hit in run support in a Tampa-2 defense should hit 75 solos easily. With Clements' ball skills and coverage/big play stats, that tackle number should make him a lock for the top ten. Winfield would've projected into the mid-70s in 2004 if he'd played two more games and he hasn't played in a Cover-2 scheme. He's slated to play on the left though. But both could be Barber or Tillman-esque this season.

I'm already chomping for some :football:

Got that right.
Awesome discussion BTW. Thanks for the additional thoughts.
 
Great post there, Mr Norton....points well taken. Hey, I said you had Trotter too high last year and I was wrong.... why throw a change-up now? Hartwell is a real question mark.... Cowart was a stud until he had the same injury. If he doesnt come back... then the Falcon LB rankings make more sense. But, how does anyone project that this early?

On the flip side... I earlier said "everyone" (which was a blatant overstatement), but many folks said Quarles would get cut after training camp last year! But, I kwow I'm on an island here with Quarles! I think he comes in around 15 in my scoring system, closer to 25 in FBG's scoring system.

 
Teddy Lehman and Ayodele ahead of Derrick Johnson? :no:

I would have thought that after the year Derrick Johnson had last year he'd be top 30...

 
Ahh, Dan Morgan at #16. I would never put him in the top 25 due to injuries. No way the guy plays more than 12 complete games. Also, I think he has lost more fantasy games for owners than any other IDP (has a solid 1Q and then sits) in the last 4 years.

 
I completely disagree with the comments that Demorrio Williams looked lost last year. He was a rookie who made some mistakes but he made a lot of impressive plays and improved greatly as the season went on. I don't know or care if Hartwell comes back healthy. He totaled a whopping 16-6-0 in the five games he started last year and looked bad. Even if he is healthy he is a 2 down player while Williams will stay on the field in passing situations. This was happening last year even before Hartwell went down. I may back off a little on my projections for Williams but I believe (at least at this point) that he will be a top 30 LB again this season.

All this happened as a starting player though.  Unless he beats out Michael Boley for the SLB role or Hartwell isn't recovered enough to regain his 2 down MLB role, Williams will be a situational player.  Hartwell may not be very effective but he'll be on the field if healthy.  It sure looks like the coaching staff feels Boley is the better option on the strong side.  Williams needs some breaks to get on the field.  If he does, I agree, he's a top 30 player easily.

I'm not sold on Boley and I just don't see them keeping Williams off the field. This is one of those situations that it's really too early to call.

I don't believe Colby Bockwoldt will survive training camp as the starter and certainly not the entire season. Keep an eye on Fincher who was a tackling machine in college.

We'll see about this one.  Buckwoldt, Grant/Smith (although drafting Bush may have spared Grant), and the corners have been the only ones to escape the wrath of the new coaching staff so far.  I'd keep an eye on Fincher as well, but that guy couldn't beat out McKinnon last year so I'm much more skeptical than this time last season.

Point well taken. Another situation that is far from resolved to say the least. Anthony Simmons may be the club's best linebacker.

Lance Briggs is a solid and consistent LB3 but he doesn't make a lot of big plays and his upside is limited so long as Urlacher is there. I personally wouldn't take him as a top 30 LB but you have a good point on the PD numbers. I missed on that one. Good call.

I wouldn't sell Briggs too short here, John.  His upside will be limited with Urlacher there.  But he had over 80 solos, 2 sacks, 2 INT, and double digit passes defended in the Tampa-2.  The defense tends to spill things to the weak side and with Lovie using Urlacher much more aggressively than the typical Tampa-2 Mike, he'll get plenty of opportunities all on three downs.  Not a LB1, but I think you can easily double his PD numbers and draft him as a top 25-30 guy.

I'll take a closer look here. I just can't get passed the vision of his '04 season with 102 solo stops but no sacks, no forced fumbles, no recoveries and just 1 interception.

I'm not high on Julian Peterson either but right now he is working at left (weak) OLB and if he stays there (and doesn't get hurt) he could very well meet my projections even with Lofa there. The Seahawks don't rush their WLB very often so if he switches positions (which could very well happen) the sacks will go up and the tackles will come down. You can't even look at his career numbers. He has been injured often while playing SLB in a 4-3 and then OLB in a 3-4. You are comparing apples to oranges. Look at the player himself and then the production that has come from the position he currently holds. 

Peterson is the WLB?  Really?  I missed that if true.  And I'm pretty sure it's the right side backer that's aligned on the weak side anyway.

You are correct, I had a brain cramp there. It is the right side that is usually weak. Shortly after Peterson signed I read that they were planning to play him on the right and keep Hill on the left. We'll have to see if they stick to that

My Man Ray.. Don't worry, I won't back off this one. He is hacked off over hearing the doubters and has something to prove. He's a competitor and one of the best to ever play the game. Now that he has the big man up front that he lobbied for, there are no excuses and I don't think he will need to make any. (P.S. JB if you want to trade him back to me in NAFFA I'm game  :shock: )

I'd deal him to you immediately - except I traded him for LT three years ago.  :D   Want Demorrio instead???

Since you think he's a backup on his own team the price would be real cheap right? :yes: .
 
I'd deal him to you immediately - except I traded him for LT three years ago.  :D   Want Demorrio instead???

Since you think he's a backup on his own team the price would be real cheap right? :yes: .

:no:

I'm just reporting the facts on Boley/Williams as I see/hear them. I really like Demorrio as a talent. And you know as well as anybody that I'm willing to waste valuable roster space on guys just like him (Bradie James, DJ Williams, Thomas Davis, Boss Bailey, and on and on and on).

That's how you gave me my sig BTW....

 
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even if Demorrio Williams starts at SLB, that's hardly the position to put up the same numbers as last year, and in order for your projection to hold true, he would have to produce the same if not better than last year.

I just don't see it, starting SLB or situational LB, just don't see it. Remember that the strong side backer isn't necessary the most talented LB, it's usually the one that has the speed and can cover the TE the best and be able to drop into coverage as well. So just cause D.Williams is talented, doesn't mean he's the right fit for the SLB.

He could beat out Hartwell for the WLB, but I highly doubt that since they have so much invested in Hartwell.

Just my 2 cents.

 
great discussion in this thread so far.

just a few comments I had while reading along:

Lance Briggs is just 25 years old and entering only his 4th year so he's still improving. He was named 1st team All-Pro last year while playing next to the defensive player of the year. Also, if they can't get him signed to a contract extension, he's going to become an unrestricted free agent after this year. We all know that motivation can lead to some monster numbers for players. I don't think his projections are that far off, but he put up 83 solos in 15 games last year and shouldn't have too much trouble hitting 90 this year.

Nate Clements has 17 interceptions in the past 4 years and has been a top-10 fantasy DB for 2 straight years. The change to a cover-2 should not have a negative impact on his fantasy value. He also signed a 1-year franchise tender and the Bills agreed not to use the tag on him again next year so he could be headed for free agency just like Briggs. He was inconsistent last year but I expect he'll be highly motivated to go out and erase all doubt that he deserves to be paid like one of the best CBs in the league.

a few other things that seemed off to me and might be worth looking into more closely:

Bills DT John McCargo with 37 solos and 4 sacks and DT Larry Tripplett with 26 solos and 2 sacks. The Bills signed Larry Tripplett to a pretty large contract and he will start at the under tackle position. McCargo is still considered a bit of a project and right now is expected to backup Tripplett and play on passing downs. Unless you really don't like Tripplett or just love McCargo, I think it would make sense to swap the projections for these two players.

Also, regarding the Bills, I probably would take away the tackles from Coy Wire and distribute them to CBs Eric King and Ashton Youboty. It would be hard to imagine Whitner not starting right away and Wire is unlikely to win a spot in the dime defense b/c he can't cover and doesn't make plays.

It looks like the two players I projected to start for the Dolphins at safety, Deke Cooper and Jason Allen, have no projected stats. I'm really not sure what they are going to do with their safety position, but I think those two safeties and Yeremiah Bell are all better options than Travares Tillman. I was really liking Hill's prospects for this year up until they drafted Jason Allen. I suppose Hill could take over the strong safety spot, but I think it's more likely that him and Allen split the FS/nickel back jobs somehow.

 
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even if Demorrio Williams starts at SLB, that's hardly the position to put up the same numbers as last year, and in order for your projection to hold true, he would have to produce the same if not better than last year.

I just don't see it, starting SLB or situational LB, just don't see it.  Remember that the strong side backer isn't necessary the most talented LB, it's usually the one that has the speed and can cover the TE the best and be able to drop into coverage as well.   So just cause D.Williams is talented, doesn't mean he's the right fit for the SLB. 

He could beat out Hartwell for the WLB, but I highly doubt that since they have so much invested in Hartwell.

Just my 2 cents.
my take on this situation:Brooking is the WLB and should be an everydown LB so he'll continue to be productive (has gone to 5 straight Pro Bowls). His solo numbers have dropped the past couple years to 86 and 89 but he's also added 5.5 sacks and 7 interceptions during that time and never misses a game. Projecting him for 84 solos, 1 sack, and 1 INT seems low to me as well.

Hartwell was signed to a big contract last year to come in and play MLB. He looked very good during his opportunities in Baltimore but struggled in Atlanta last year before getting injured. At a minimum, he should start in the middle and play on the early downs b/c he's capable of being a very effective run stopper despite his coverage limitations. Jordan Beck will likely back him up inside.

Michael Boley is expected to hold onto the starting SLB job. The injuries to Hartwell and Beck last year forced a lot of linebackers to play out of position, with Brooking moving back inside and Demorrio shifting to WLB. All reports this year seem to indicate that Boley will hold onto the SLB job after starting 11 games there as a rookie. He's also going to be not much more than a 2-down linebacker.

Demorrio Williams will see regular playing time as a nickel linebacker and also in some other packages but won't start. He should see a huge drop in his numbers unless someone else gets hurt or Boley just flops at SLB.

Here was a description of the role planned for Williams from a recent article (from 4/27/06):

Demorrio Williams, who started all 16 games, initially on the strong side, then at the weak side, will be used as a hybrid player, lining up as a fourth linebacker in some sets or a spy-type safety in others. Veteran Ike Reese will back up all three spots.
A healthy Hartwell and Beck will greatly improve the depth of this LB unit compared to a year ago, and Boley should show improvement in his 2nd year. There simply won't be as many opportunities for Williams when everybody is healthy. The best he can hope for is more problems for Hartwell and Beck inside, which would force the team to move Brooking again. I guess its also possible that he could beat out Boley for the starting SLB job and continue to play in the nickel package, but the team doesn't seem too thrilled with that option right now.
 
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This is some great conversation and everyone is making valid points.

I do want to point out one important factor on these initial projections. When I put them together I do it on a team by team basis and have no way to look at them sorted by position as they appear once they are posted. I would have liked to have seen them that way before they went live so I could have made some tweaks. Given the opportunity I would have adjusted several of the guys we are discussing (Brooking in particular) but unfortunately most of you saw them before I did.

I'll be working on an update today with those tweaks and will be taking a longer look at many of the guys you all have pointed out. We'll get that update posted ASAP.

Meanwhile keep in mind that these are projections and NOT RANKINGS. If you want to look at rankings go here http://www.footballguys.com/viewrankings.php

These ranking take everything into consideration including how much confidence the ranker has in the player and how consistent the player is.

Thanks again for all the feedback and food for thought.

 
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Patrick Kerney is going to be the biggest steal out of this entire group this year, IMO. With Abraham getting double teamed on the other side, Kerney should have a fabulous and similar season from two years ago.

 
I'd deal him to you immediately - except I traded him for LT three years ago.  :D   Want Demorrio instead???

Since you think he's a backup on his own team the price would be real cheap right? :yes: .

:no:

I'm just reporting the facts on Boley/Williams as I see/hear them. I really like Demorrio as a talent. And you know as well as anybody that I'm willing to waste valuable roster space on guys just like him (Bradie James, DJ Williams, Thomas Davis, Boss Bailey, and on and on and on).

That's how you gave me my sig BTW....
I understand and you guys may well be right. I completely agree that Williams is actually a better fit at WLB but I do like his talent a lot. I can see them moving Brooking back inside at some point, to get Williams on the field. Especially if Hartwell doesn't play much better than he did before the injury last year. Big money or not, the Falcons are looking to win and they will play their best three. I just think Williams is one of those three. Besides what fun would it be if we all agreed on everything ;)
 
Bills DT John McCargo with 37 solos and 4 sacks and DT Larry Tripplett with 26 solos and 2 sacks. The Bills signed Larry Tripplett to a pretty large contract and he will start at the under tackle position. McCargo is still considered a bit of a project and right now is expected to backup Tripplett and play on passing downs. Unless you really don't like Tripplett or just love McCargo, I think it would make sense to swap the projections for these two players.

I am not at all impressed with Triplett. He's not a bad player but is certainly nothing special. In 43 starts for the Colts over the past three years he totaled all of 81 solo tackles and 5 sacks. McCargo may be a rookie but he will start from day one and I believe he ultimately is much more talented and a bigger pass rush threat than Triplett. Neither of these guys are likely to have a big fantasy impact though.

Also, regarding the Bills, I probably would take away the tackles from Coy Wire and distribute them to CBs Eric King and Ashton Youboty. It would be hard to imagine Whitner not starting right away and Wire is unlikely to win a spot in the dime defense b/c he can't cover and doesn't make plays.

I'll take look here but if my feeble memory serves me I didn't project Wire with many tackles to begin with. Once I see Whitner claim the starting job for sure I'll be giving Wire even less consideration. I don't see King or Youboty being any factor at all unless there are a bunch of injuries

It looks like the two players I projected to start for the Dolphins at safety, Deke Cooper and Jason Allen, have no projected stats. I'm really not sure what they are going to do with their safety position, but I think those two safeties and Yeremiah Bell are all better options than Travares Tillman. I was really liking Hill's prospects for this year up until they drafted Jason Allen. I suppose Hill could take over the strong safety spot, but I think it's more likely that him and Allen split the FS/nickel back jobs somehow.

I'll go out on a strong limb here and say that barring injuries, Cooper will never start a regular season game. He's a backup quality specual teams guy. I do however agree with you on Tillman. I believe Hill will eventually migrate back to safety and claim a starting job. The bottom line is that Miami is hurting for a SS... I actually projected Allen to start at FS. Don't know why he didn't show up but I will look into it for the update. Possibly I had the player ID tag wrong? I dunno but we'll get it fixed.
 
I'm not really up on Sirmon as much as I'd like to be. I got him CHEAP this offseason, on the chance he would be the starting MLB. If he wins it, I hope he's a decent bye week fill-in. Jene, you think he's a two down backer at best if he starts at MLB? He was on the outside last year, if I'm not mistaken. Still, I think the Titans D spends a lot of time on the field this year.
With apologies for the hi-jack...here's the latest on Sirmon, Rovers. You probably won't like it.Tennessean.com via FFLiveWire

Still, Sirmon's far from a lock to be the starter in between Thornton and Keith Bulluck when the season starts.

Speed is not his forte, and getting faster has been a major point of emphasis for the Titans this offseason. Sirmon and Titans Coach Jeff Fisher both said the reconstructive knee surgery that cost him the entire 2004 season is no longer an issue.

Sirmon also isn't cheaply priced, and the Titans are going to approach him at some point about lowering a scheduled $2.4 million base salary, a big number even for a veteran in what isn't a full-time role in the defense.

The middle linebacker typically leaves the field in favor of an additional defensive back in clear-cut passing situations.

It's a job that might be better suited for a rookie such as Stephen Tulloch, drafted out of North Carolina State in the fourth round. Tulloch is faster and he certainly will be cheaper, and there won't be any reluctance on the part of the Titans in asking him to play a big role on special teams.
Back to the regularly scheduled debate...
 
I'd deal him to you immediately - except I traded him for LT three years ago. :D Want Demorrio instead???

Since you think he's a backup on his own team the price would be real cheap right? :yes: .

:no:

I'm just reporting the facts on Boley/Williams as I see/hear them. I really like Demorrio as a talent. And you know as well as anybody that I'm willing to waste valuable roster space on guys just like him (Bradie James, DJ Williams, Thomas Davis, Boss Bailey, and on and on and on).

That's how you gave me my sig BTW....
I understand and you guys may well be right. I completely agree that Williams is actually a better fit at WLB but I do like his talent a lot. I can see them moving Brooking back inside at some point, to get Williams on the field. Especially if Hartwell doesn't play much better than he did before the injury last year. Big money or not, the Falcons are looking to win and they will play their best three. I just think Williams is one of those three. Besides what fun would it be if we all agreed on everything ;)
Hey John,I felt the exact same as you on Williams at the end of last season. Maybe the best source for quick post season team reports is this page at USA Today. They do a great job analyzing the past season and interviewing staff while everything is still fresh. Unfortunately they continually update every report with breaking news and the juicy stuff gets deleted. Next year I will copy all of them very early because the info is so solid. Anyway, there was palpable dissatisfaction with Demorrio despite his numbers immediately following the season. And the initial report suggested what many here believe-- good chance he doesn't start next year. I'm on the fence, but I know the report was valid, not speculation. Just sayin'.

 
I'm not really up on Sirmon as much as I'd like to be. I got him CHEAP this offseason, on the chance he would be the starting MLB. If he wins it, I hope he's a decent bye week fill-in. Jene, you think he's a two down backer at best if he starts at MLB? He was on the outside last year, if I'm not mistaken. Still, I think the Titans D spends a lot of time on the field this year.
With apologies for the hi-jack...here's the latest on Sirmon, Rovers. You probably won't like it.Tennessean.com via FFLiveWire

Still, Sirmon's far from a lock to be the starter in between Thornton and Keith Bulluck when the season starts.

Speed is not his forte, and getting faster has been a major point of emphasis for the Titans this offseason. Sirmon and Titans Coach Jeff Fisher both said the reconstructive knee surgery that cost him the entire 2004 season is no longer an issue.

Sirmon also isn't cheaply priced, and the Titans are going to approach him at some point about lowering a scheduled $2.4 million base salary, a big number even for a veteran in what isn't a full-time role in the defense.

The middle linebacker typically leaves the field in favor of an additional defensive back in clear-cut passing situations.

It's a job that might be better suited for a rookie such as Stephen Tulloch, drafted out of North Carolina State in the fourth round. Tulloch is faster and he certainly will be cheaper, and there won't be any reluctance on the part of the Titans in asking him to play a big role on special teams.
Back to the regularly scheduled debate...
Thanks, Jene..... not really a hijack, as Sirmon's projections would go up significantly if he does in fact win the starting MLB spot, although it would most likely be as a two down backer. However, you didn't include the more posive notes on Sirmon in that article.....AP reports LB Peter Sirmon was upset when the Titans signed free-agent LB David Thornton to fill what had been his position. His initial reaction was to ask to be released. But more than two months later, Sirmon said he's feeling better about things, and he sounds like he'd like to be part of the defense the Titans roll out at the Coliseum in the season opener against the Jets on Sept. 10.

Sirmon, primarily a strong-side linebacker last season, has been working as the middle linebacker in recent practices. "One of the first things you've got to do in football is you've got to find your role, and as soon as you find your role, you've got to play to it," Sirmon said. "If they ask you to change that role or do something else, then you've got to adapt again. I think this is getting to be the role that I am probably going to play, and I am looking to play it well."

Rated as one of the smartest players on Tennessee's defense, the position switch isn't a major adjustment for Sirmon, who said he's already comfortable with different angles and reads. Still, Sirmon's far from a lock to be the starter in between Thornton and Keith Bulluck when the season starts.

I knew when I picked him up (cheaply) he wasn't a lock, but worth a flyer.... MLB's in 16 team leagues are a hot commodity! Since he knows the defense, and is a smart player.... that will help him against newly aquired players for the starting gig.

 
Hey John,

I felt the exact same as you on Williams at the end of last season. Maybe the best source for quick post season team reports is this page at USA Today. They do a great job analyzing the past season and interviewing staff while everything is still fresh. Unfortunately they continually update every report with breaking news and the juicy stuff gets deleted. Next year I will copy all of them very early because the info is so solid. Anyway, there was palpable dissatisfaction with Demorrio despite his numbers immediately following the season. And the initial report suggested what many here believe-- good chance he doesn't start next year. I'm on the fence, but I know the report was valid, not speculation. Just sayin'.
Thanks for the link. I'll be looking closer at this situation after this discussion.
 
Resolved the James Allen/Jason Allen problems. I had coded the players backwards. James Allen at #51 LB should have been Jason Allen the Miami safety. It will be fixed when the update is posted. Thanks for catching the error. :thumbup:

 
I am not at all impressed with Triplett. He's not a bad player but is certainly nothing special. In 43 starts for the Colts over the past three years he totaled all of 81 solo tackles and 5 sacks. McCargo may be a rookie but he will start from day one and I believe he ultimately is much more talented and a bigger pass rush threat than Triplett. Neither of these guys are likely to have a big fantasy impact though.

I'll take look here but if my feeble memory serves me I didn't project Wire with many tackles to begin with. Once I see Whitner claim the starting job for sure I'll be giving Wire even less consideration. I don't see King or Youboty being any factor at all unless there are a bunch of injuries
this is interesting to me.on the one hand, you are projecting that McCargo will beat out Tripplett for the starting UT job despite every single report this offseason suggesting Tripplett is a lock to start there. Tripplett was the team's biggest free agent signing this offseason and is a prototypical 3-technique tackle coming off his best season in Indy playing in the same defensive system. McCargo, meanwhile, is a 21-year old who came out after his junior year, missed half the season with an injury, and hasn't played in this system before. I'm not sure why you are so confident that McCargo will start from day one but I'd bet money against that. I expect the Bills starters will be Tripplett and Anderson with McCargo backing up Tripplett and coming in on passing downs. Kyle Williams will likely win the backup NT job. Best case scenario for McCargo, IMHO, is a 50/50 split with Tripplett.

Then, on the other hand, you are still giving Wire a chance to play at SS when the team went out and signed Bowen in free agency and then used a top-10 pick on a SS. They clearly don't have much faith in Wire's abilities. In fact, your argument about Deke Cooper being nothing more than a backup and special teams guy would fit Coy Wire perfectly. He's useless in coverage. As for King and Youboty, I guess we just disagree there. I think whoever winds up with the nickel job has a good chance to put up 25-30 solo tackles. I guess if they split that role (King early and Youboty late), neither will do much. But, the team likes King and Youboty was drafted as a potential replacement for Clements next year so I expect both to see regular playing time. More than Wire anyway.

btw, these are all very minor players so this isn't a big deal and I realize it's impossible to be up on every player and situation around the league. You did an awesome job here and I'm just trying to add my perspectives as a Bills homer who follows the team very closely. I just found it interesting that you are so much more confident about McCargo's starting prospects than Whitner, b/c I feel completely opposite there.

 
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I don't agree that the Buffalo safety situation is one of minor players. Whatever player wins that job could put up pretty good DB numbers. I agree, the FA aquisition of Bowen, and the drafting of Whitner says they aren't very confident in Wire at all. Even if they use some sort of rotation, I figure Wire is low man on the totem pole. Not only did they take Whitner, they LEAPED for him that high.

For a team with big questions on both the D and O lines..... the Whitner pick says to me Wire is hanging by a thread, so to speak!

 
I don't agree that the Buffalo safety situation is one of minor players. Whatever player wins that job could put up pretty good DB numbers. I agree, the FA aquisition of Bowen, and the drafting of Whitner says they aren't very confident in Wire at all. Even if they use some sort of rotation, I figure Wire is low man on the totem pole. Not only did they take Whitner, they LEAPED for him that high.

For a team with big questions on both the D and O lines..... the Whitner pick says to me Wire is hanging by a thread, so to speak!
Whitner is not a minor player, but Coy Wire, Eric King, and Ashton Youboty likely are for fantasy purposes this year.Wire is a very good special teams player, which will give him a decent chance to make the team. But, the secondary is going to be crowded this year and some good players are going to be let go:

CB - Clements, McGee, Youboty, King are all locks to make the team. Greer is a solid 5th CB and Kiwaukee Thomas has been in the league for 7 years so he can provide quality depth as well.

S - Whitner, Vincent, Bowen, Wire, Simpson, Baker are the top 6. Jim Leonhard made the team last year as a 5th safety but he looks like the 7th best for this year. If they keep 5 safeties again, Wire should make the team, but if they drop back down to 4, he could be the odd man out.

 
I don't agree that the Buffalo safety situation is one of minor players. Whatever player wins that job could put up pretty good DB numbers. I agree, the FA aquisition of Bowen, and the drafting of Whitner says they aren't very confident in Wire at all. Even if they use some sort of rotation, I figure Wire is low man on the totem pole. Not only did they take Whitner, they LEAPED for him that high.

For a team with big questions on both the D and O lines..... the Whitner pick says to me Wire is hanging by a thread, so to speak!
Whitner is not a minor player, but Coy Wire, Eric King, and Ashton Youboty likely are for fantasy purposes this year.Wire is a very good special teams player, which will give him a decent chance to make the team. But, the secondary is going to be crowded this year and some good players are going to be let go:

CB - Clements, McGee, Youboty, King are all locks to make the team. Greer is a solid 5th CB and Kiwaukee Thomas has been in the league for 7 years so he can provide quality depth as well.

S - Whitner, Vincent, Bowen, Wire, Simpson, Baker are the top 6. Jim Leonhard made the team last year as a 5th safety but he looks like the 7th best for this year. If they keep 5 safeties again, Wire should make the team, but if they drop back down to 4, he could be the odd man out.
My comment regarding Wire was directed at his playing time at safety.... not as to whether or not he'd make the roster. I think Whitner is most likely to start, with Bowen having an outside shot if Whitner struggles a bit in the transistion to the NFL, which I don't expect to see happen. If Whitner starts from week 1, I expect to see him put up some good numbers. Possible top 20 in the DB category, although top thirty may be more likely. Rookie safeties cracking the topo ten isn't all that rare though.... Coleman did it in 2004, Rhodes in 2005. M Williams is another. Could Whitner and Huff be next?

 
I am not at all impressed with Triplett. He's not a bad player but is certainly nothing special. In 43 starts for the Colts over the past three years he totaled all of 81 solo tackles and 5 sacks. McCargo may be a rookie but he will start from day one and I believe he ultimately is much more talented and a bigger pass rush threat than Triplett. Neither of these guys are likely to have a big fantasy impact though

I'll take look here but if my feeble memory serves me I didn't project Wire with many tackles to begin with. Once I see Whitner claim the starting job for sure I'll be giving Wire even less consideration. I don't see King or Youboty being any factor at all unless there are a bunch of injuries
this is interesting to me.on the one hand, you are projecting that McCargo will beat out Tripplett for the starting UT job despite every single report this offseason suggesting Tripplett is a lock to start there. Tripplett was the team's biggest free agent signing this offseason and is a prototypical 3-technique tackle coming off his best season in Indy playing in the same defensive system. McCargo, meanwhile, is a 21-year old who came out after his junior year, missed half the season with an injury, and hasn't played in this system before. I'm not sure why you are so confident that McCargo will start from day one but I'd bet money against that. I expect the Bills starters will be Tripplett and Anderson with McCargo backing up Tripplett and coming in on passing downs. Kyle Williams will likely win the backup NT job. Best case scenario for McCargo, IMHO, is a 50/50 split with Tripplett.

Who said anything about McCargo beating out Triplett? I expect him to beat out Anderson and start beside Triplett. Yes Triplett is a proven veteran, which is why he will see the double teams, not McCargo. Yes Triplett is coming off his best season ever. In the three years prior he had just one total sack. Last year he was in Indy who has Freeney, Mathis and Brock combining for 27 sacks. Meanwhile the Bills have Schobel with 12 and the next best guy with 4. Buffalo is a young club that needs experience. They didn't trade up for McCargo to have him sit and watch while the rest of their young guys get experience. If they were sold on Anderson they wouldn't have been so eager to go get McCargo.

Then, on the other hand, you are still giving Wire a chance to play at SS when the team went out and signed Bowen in free agency and then used a top-10 pick on a SS. They clearly don't have much faith in Wire's abilities. In fact, your argument about Deke Cooper being nothing more than a backup and special teams guy would fit Coy Wire perfectly. He's useless in coverage. As for King and Youboty, I guess we just disagree there. I think whoever winds up with the nickel job has a good chance to put up 25-30 solo tackles. I guess if they split that role (King early and Youboty late), neither will do much. But, the team likes King and Youboty was drafted as a potential replacement for Clements next year so I expect both to see regular playing time. More than Wire anyway.

I projected Wire with all of 21 tackles, he could have that many on special teams. So why are we even having this discussion? I never suggested he would have any shot at starting. All I said is that Whitner may not play full time from day one. When a rookie DT makes a mistake the runner gains 10-12 yards. When a rookie safety make a mistake it's a TD. With Bowen there I expect them to ease Whitner into the lineup slowly over the first month or two of the season.

btw, these are all very minor players so this isn't a big deal and I realize it's impossible to be up on every player and situation around the league. You did an awesome job here and I'm just trying to add my perspectives as a Bills homer who follows the team very closely. I just found it interesting that you are so much more confident about McCargo's starting prospects than Whitner, b/c I feel completely opposite there.
 
Who said anything about McCargo beating out Triplett? I expect him to beat out Anderson and start beside Triplett. Yes Triplett is a proven veteran, which is why he will see the double teams, not McCargo. Yes Triplett is coming off his best season ever. In the three years prior he had just one total sack. Last year he was in Indy who has Freeney, Mathis and Brock combining for 27 sacks. Meanwhile the Bills have Schobel with 12 and the next best guy with 4. Buffalo is a young club that needs experience. They didn't trade up for McCargo to have him sit and watch while the rest of their young guys get experience. If they were sold on Anderson they wouldn't have been so eager to go get McCargo.
interesting. I didn't realize you were projecting McCargo to start at nose tackle right away. My mistake. That doesn't really seem like a good fit for him right now, IMO and reports from the Bills after the draft have said "they think he can eventually develop into a nose tackle". Even after Tripplett was signed, the Bills made a strong effort to sign Ryan Pickett to play NT, and most Bills fans hoped/expected the Bills would draft a NT with their first round pick so I agree they are not sold on Tim Anderson. But, the McCargo pick shocked everybody b/c people don't think he's a legit nose tackle right now. I think Kyle Williams actually might have a better chance of beating out Anderson than McCargo for that spot. Maybe I'm underrating McCargo or overrating the need for a solid run defender at the NT spot in the Bills new scheme, but he seems like more of a speed guy who will be much more effective at the under tackle spot.
I projected Wire with all of 21 tackles, he could have that many on special teams. So why are we even having this discussion? I never suggested he would have any shot at starting. All I said is that Whitner may not play full time from day one. When a rookie DT makes a mistake the runner gains 10-12 yards. When a rookie safety make a mistake it's a TD. With Bowen there I expect them to ease Whitner into the lineup slowly over the first month or two of the season.
Yes, 21 tackles isn't much, but King had more than that last year and Youboty could put up 20+ solo tackles this year as well and they weren't listed. My initial comment suggested that you could probably give those 21 tackles from Wire to either King or Youboty, since I expect them to see a lot more playing time on defense. I was just trying to be helpful as I think they will both outproduce Wire this year, and as I posted above, I think there's a decent chance Wire doesn't even make the final roster. I don't disagree with you about them trying to ease Whitner in a bit, but I also think they'll probably just let him learn on the job. With good CBs in place and a vet like Troy Vincent behind him and Fletcher and Spikes in front of him, he shouldn't have to do too much. I guess we'll see how it works out.Like I said, these are almost all pretty minor players for fantasy purposes. I was just trying to help improve the overall quality of the projections by pointing out a couple things that seemed off to me. If you disagree with me and see things differently, no worries at all. Projecting performance for backups is obviously difficult as we don't have a good idea of how much playing time they will get.

Since we're on this topic already, do you normally project stats for the nickel back? With the way things are in the NFL these days, it certainly seems like nickel packages wind up spending a lot of time on the field. This is the reason why I thought King or Youboty should be included in your projections somehow. If the argument against including them is that we don't yet know who will be the nickel CB, then I agree. But, your statement that you don't expect either to be a factor unless there was a bunch of injuries threw me off a bit. Even the Bears last year, who had two great starting CBs in Tillman and Vasher, got 37 solos from #3 CB Jerry Azumah. Maybe that's not the best example since Azumah was a former starter, but I wonder how often the #3 CB on a team doesn't crack at least 20 solo tackles (which I agree isn't making an impact)?

btw, don't take any of this as criticism. I'm basically just thinking out loud a bit and offering my thoughts on the Bills as if I was projecting them myself.

 
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John,

From your projections it looks as if you see Coakley starting at WLB in StL over Brandon Chillar, a guy I feel could be a real steal this year.

Would you mind elaborating on that?

Thanks.

 
Yes, 21 tackles isn't much, but King had more than that last year and Youboty could put up 20+ solo tackles this year as well and they weren't listed. My initial comment suggested that you could probably give those 21 tackles from Wire to either King or Youboty, since I expect them to see a lot more playing time on defense. I was just trying to be helpful as I think they will both outproduce Wire this year, and as I posted above, I think there's a decent chance Wire doesn't even make the final roster. I don't disagree with you about them trying to ease Whitner in a bit, but I also think they'll probably just let him learn on the job. With good CBs in place and a vet like Troy Vincent behind him and Fletcher and Spikes in front of him, he shouldn't have to do too much. I guess we'll see how it works out.

Like I said, these are almost all pretty minor players for fantasy purposes. I was just trying to help improve the overall quality of the projections by pointing out a couple things that seemed off to me. If you disagree with me and see things differently, no worries at all. Projecting performance for backups is obviously difficult as we don't have a good idea of how much playing time they will get.

Since we're on this topic already, do you normally project stats for the nickel back? With the way things are in the NFL these days, it certainly seems like nickel packages wind up spending a lot of time on the field. This is the reason why I thought King or Youboty should be included in your projections somehow. If the argument against including them is that we don't yet know who will be the nickel CB, then I agree. But, your statement that you don't expect either to be a factor unless there was a bunch of injuries threw me off a bit. Even the Bears last year, who had two great starting CBs in Tillman and Vasher, got 37 solos from #3 CB Jerry Azumah. Maybe that's not the best example since Azumah was a former starter, but I wonder how often the #3 CB on a team doesn't crack at least 20 solo tackles (which I agree isn't making an impact)?

btw, don't take any of this as criticism. I'm basically just thinking out loud a bit and offering my thoughts on the Bills as if I was projecting them myself.
No offense taken Aaron, it's all good conversation. I generally try to project anyone that I feel will contribute more than a hand full of tackles or who may see some action in a relief role. You are closer to the Buffalo situation than I so you may well be right about King and Youboty. I was/am unsure who would land the nickel role. I figured Greer might get some of those snaps so I listed him, but also could see them sliding former corner Vincent over to cover the slot receiver with Whitner and Bowen at the safeties in the nickel. You make some valid points and this is a situation that I will be looking at a little closer down the road. On the McCargo thing, I don't expect them to play him as a true NT who would line up over the center. I believe they move the RDT around depending on the formation and line him up anywhere from the inside shoulder of the OT to the center/guard gap. Everyone agrees that drafting him as they did was a surprise and a reach but I think that will motivate them even more to get him on the field. They will want to show us that they knew what they were doing. Regardless of who officilally starts they will use a rotation. Unless he is a flop, I just see McCargo out producing Anderson by the end of the season. That said, neither guy is going to have much fantasy impact.

Here is the link to an article on the subject from buffalobills.com

http://www.buffalobills.com/news/news.jsp?news_id=3785

 
John,

From your projections it looks as if you see Coakley starting at WLB in StL over Brandon Chillar, a guy I feel could be a real steal this year.

Would you mind elaborating on that?

Thanks.
The only two things we know about the Rams linebackers at this point is that Witherspoon will start in the middle and Tinoisamoa will start somewhere. They paid Coakley a lot of money and he is a decent WLB. I projected him a little higher than Chillar only because the team currently has him listed as the starting WLB. To be honest it wouldn't surprise me to see them cut Coakley and recoup some money before the season opens. I don't know that he is a great fit in the new more physical scheme. If Chillar wins the WLB job he could have some value. I would project him higher than Coakley at the same position. This isn't the same old passive Rams defense.
 
Regardless of who officilally starts they will use a rotation. Unless he is a flop, I just see McCargo out producing Anderson by the end of the season. That said, neither guy is going to have much fantasy impact.

Here is the link to an article on the subject from buffalobills.com

http://www.buffalobills.com/news/news.jsp?news_id=3785
they will definitely use a rotation, but Tripplett should get the most playing time of all the DTs. That is why I said I thought you could swap the numbers for him and McCargo. Personally, I think McCargo is a bit of a project, but I hope you're right.Anyway, I'm working on my projections now myself so I definitely realize how difficult all of this can be.

 
Regardless of who officilally starts they will use a rotation. Unless he is a flop, I just see McCargo out producing Anderson by the end of the season. That said, neither guy is going to have much fantasy impact.

Here is the link to an article on the subject from buffalobills.com

http://www.buffalobills.com/news/news.jsp?news_id=3785
they will definitely use a rotation, but Tripplett should get the most playing time of all the DTs. That is why I said I thought you could swap the numbers for him and McCargo. Personally, I think McCargo is a bit of a project, but I hope you're right.Anyway, I'm working on my projections now myself so I definitely realize how difficult all of this can be.
LMAO! My skin is NOT thick enough to post projections! I'm much better at being a pot shot artist! :hey: That is not to say that's what anyone's done here, but I tend to tier players, and even that I'm afraid would not hold up very well to the sort of scrutiny that goes on here! I spend a ton of time looking around.... and then WHAM! I get hit between the eyes anyway. For instance, I did not know that S Dwight Smith was being shopped by N.O., but apparently, this is old news for well informed Saints fans. Now, what does THAT do to his projections? Most of my oversights and mistakes go largely unoticed, except by myself, and maybe one or two sharp league-mates.

I'll stay in the peanut gallery, and watch you guys stick yer necks out.... that's why you get the big bucks, right? :nerd:

 
Sporting News recently mentioned the possibility of the Saints trading Dwight Smith. Seems silly to me, as I thought he was one of their best defensive players last year, and he's versatile enough to play at several different positions. They like Bullocks from last year and drafted Roman Harper this year, but I don't see either player making Smith irrelevant for this season.

 
John,

From your projections it looks as if you see Coakley starting at WLB in StL over Brandon Chillar, a guy I feel could be a real steal this year.

Would you mind elaborating on that?

Thanks.
The only two things we know about the Rams linebackers at this point is that Witherspoon will start in the middle and Tinoisamoa will start somewhere. They paid Coakley a lot of money and he is a decent WLB. I projected him a little higher than Chillar only because the team currently has him listed as the starting WLB. To be honest it wouldn't surprise me to see them cut Coakley and recoup some money before the season opens. I don't know that he is a great fit in the new more physical scheme. If Chillar wins the WLB job he could have some value. I would project him higher than Coakley at the same position. This isn't the same old passive Rams defense.
WLB: ChillarMLB: Witherspoon

SLB: Tino

link:

http://www.stltoday.com/stltoday/sports/st...C7?OpenDocument

Rams defensive coordinator Jim Haslett flinched a bit Tuesday when informed that coach Scott Linehan, in the days leading up to the NFL draft, had jokingly referred to him as "the lobby king."

"We had 10 draft picks, and five were offense and five were defense," Haslett pointed out. "So it came out even."

True. But three of the team's first four picks were defenders - cornerback Tye Hill in the first round, and defensive tackle Claude Wroten and linebacker Jon Alston in the third. Plus, the bulk of the veteran players the Rams have signed in the offseason also play defense.

So, Haslett must have been effective in petitioning Linehan and the front-office brass for some new personnel with which to rebuild the defense. That unit sagged to 30th in the 32-team league last season, when the Rams went 6-10.

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"I think the whole defense has to play better than they played the last couple of years, especially on the run game," Haslett said. "I want our defensive team to be tough-minded and physical. But I also want them to be good (at) technique, smart, and I want them to be good tacklers. And I don't think it was a good tackling football team last year."

That was just one of the defense's problems in 2005, as the Rams yielded more yards on the ground than every other team in the NFC.

Defensive ends Leonard Little and Anthony Hargrove are expected to regain their jobs, Pisa Tinoisamoa isn't likely to be uprooted at strongside linebacker, and third-year pro Brandon Chillar appears to have the edge at weakside linebacker. The seven other spots could be filled with new starters by opening day - Sept. 2 vs. Denver.

Gone are tackles Ryan Pickett and Damione Lewis, safeties Adam Archuleta and Mike Furrey, linebacker Chris Claiborne and defensive end Tyoka Jackson. In addition to the draftees, new arrivals include tackle La'Roi Glover, linebackers Will Witherspoon and Raonall Smith, safety Corey Chavous and cornerback Fakhir Brown.

"The people that we brought in are quality guys," Haslett said. "They're tough individuals, they're tough-minded, they love football, and they're going to be good for this team." Among the holdovers, Haslett said he's detected a determination to pry themselves from near the bottom of the league's statistical standings.

"From being around them the last couple of months, I think first of all it's a smart football team defensively; they're quick learners," he said. "I think they want to do everything right, from what I've seen. They want to do things to please the coach and to please themselves."

Haslett, 50, is working just one side of the ball for the first time since 2000, when he was hired as the New Orleans Saints' head coach. He was fired Jan. 2 - the same day the Rams dismissed Mike Martz. Previously, Haslett, a former NFL linebacker, had been a defensive coordinator with the Saints (1996) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (1997-99).

The transition back to coordinator has been "all right," Haslett said. "I struggled a little bit early with it, but I think for the most part it's gone well. I just like coaching football. It doesn't make a difference what level it's at or what you're doing. I just like being around the players and working schemes."

And, despite his distaste for the term "lobby king," he said he likes working for Linehan.

"The reason I came here is because of Scott. I think Scott's got a good feel for this organization and this team, and has done a great job up to this point," Haslett said. "I think his best quality is, he's extremely smart. I think that'll show once we get going."

 
Sporting News recently mentioned the possibility of the Saints trading Dwight Smith. Seems silly to me, as I thought he was one of their best defensive players last year, and he's versatile enough to play at several different positions. They like Bullocks from last year and drafted Roman Harper this year, but I don't see either player making Smith irrelevant for this season.
I agree the "trade Dwight Smith" talk has me baffled also. When the Saints signed Smith, he was one of the best cover safeties in the NFL (played nickle CB for the Bucs). Sure...the entire Saints defense was porous, but I was shocked to see the Saints draft a Roman Harper in the 2nd AFTER netting Bryan Scott via trade. If I had to guess, Bullock swill be the starting SS while Harper and Scott will compete for the FS gig. It soulds as if Smith is all but out.
 
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I agree the "trade Dwight Smith" talk has me baffled also. When the Saints signed Smith, he was one of the best cover safeties in the NFL (played nickle CB for the Bucs). Sure...the entire Saints defense was porous, but I was shocked to see the Saints draft a Roman Harper in the 2nd AFTER netting Bryan Scott via trade. If I had to guess, Bullock swill be the starting SS while Harper and Scott will compete for the FS gig. It soulds as if Smith is all but out.
yeah, I forgot to mention Bryan Scott. He looked good early on in Atlanta, but they were pretty happy to be rid of him. :shrug:
 

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