All good points. Commented on Sirmon and Williams above. We'll still agree to disagree on Quarles.Players I have ranked higher:
Quarles. In my IDP leagues' scoring system he was the #7 LB. In FBG's, he was 13th. Everyone said Ruud would put him on the bench last year... and it didn't happen. At #38, I think he's ranked too low, as I only see a small dropoff from last year to this. A drop to 20 to 25 seems more reasonable to me.
Thomas Howard- If he wins that WLB spot in Oakland, his numbers will be higher than Danny Clark's at the SLB spot. 99 for Howard just seems wat too low, considering Clark is at 52. Howard could crack the top thirty.
Peter Sirmon- The jury is still out, but if he wins that MLB spot, he's garanteed to be top thirty. He has competion, lots of it, and maybe that ranking of 73 is a hedge due to the uncertainty of the Titans' MLB spot.
Nah. Won't be a three down player in all likelihood which severely limits his production. I'm still interested in seeing what a solid MLB can do in Tennessee, but I don't think Sirmon is an obvious upgrade over Kassell, Boiman, Calmus, etc.
Brooking- The guy is a stud, whether he's at MLB or WLB.... 42 is too low.
Players I have lower:
Vilma- I still believe his numbers will go down in the predominant 3-4 scheme the Jets will run. IF they use him like Miami uses Thomas, he may get enough big plays to offset the loss of tackle stats. I have him 6th until I see more in the preseason.
Trotter and Cowart- a couple of two down backers that won't attain those kind of numbers.
Brooking- As others have said, it looks likely he'll be collecting more splinters than tackles.
Assume you mean Demorrio Williams here.
LOL! Yeah.... I meant Williams! I'm not really up on Sirmon as much as I'd like to be. I got him CHEAP this offseason, on the chance he would be the starting MLB. If he wins it, I hope he's a decent bye week fill-in. Jene, you think he's a two down backer at best if he starts at MLB? He was on the outside last year, if I'm not mistaken. Still, I think the Titans D spends a lot of time on the field this year. I've got one contract year left on Quarles! That particular team of mine has a real shot at the title this year. I hope, and pray, that yer wrong, Jene! If he can come close to last year's numbers.... however, I did have a great LB draft for that team.... Greenway, Lawson, Hodge.All good points. Commented on Sirmon and Williams above. We'll still agree to disagree on Quarles.Players I have ranked higher:
Quarles. In my IDP leagues' scoring system he was the #7 LB. In FBG's, he was 13th. Everyone said Ruud would put him on the bench last year... and it didn't happen. At #38, I think he's ranked too low, as I only see a small dropoff from last year to this. A drop to 20 to 25 seems more reasonable to me.
Thomas Howard- If he wins that WLB spot in Oakland, his numbers will be higher than Danny Clark's at the SLB spot. 99 for Howard just seems wat too low, considering Clark is at 52. Howard could crack the top thirty.
Peter Sirmon- The jury is still out, but if he wins that MLB spot, he's garanteed to be top thirty. He has competion, lots of it, and maybe that ranking of 73 is a hedge due to the uncertainty of the Titans' MLB spot.
Nah. Won't be a three down player in all likelihood which severely limits his production. I'm still interested in seeing what a solid MLB can do in Tennessee, but I don't think Sirmon is an obvious upgrade over Kassell, Boiman, Calmus, etc.
Brooking- The guy is a stud, whether he's at MLB or WLB.... 42 is too low.
Players I have lower:
Vilma- I still believe his numbers will go down in the predominant 3-4 scheme the Jets will run. IF they use him like Miami uses Thomas, he may get enough big plays to offset the loss of tackle stats. I have him 6th until I see more in the preseason.
Trotter and Cowart- a couple of two down backers that won't attain those kind of numbers.
Brooking- As others have said, it looks likely he'll be collecting more splinters than tackles.
Assume you mean Demorrio Williams here.![]()
Unfortunately, I'm wrong plenty. Now that I have to put up or shut up, I'm hoping I'm wrong less often.Sirmon was a three down guy last year, but I don't think he stays on the field over either Bulluck or Thornton. I also wouldn't be shocked to see Tulloch win that job relatively soon.LOL! Yeah.... I meant Williams! I'm not really up on Sirmon as much as I'd like to be. I got him CHEAP this offseason, on the chance he would be the starting MLB. If he wins it, I hope he's a decent bye week fill-in. Jene, you think he's a two down backer at best if he starts at MLB? He was on the outside last year, if I'm not mistaken. Still, I think the Titans D spends a lot of time on the field this year.
I've got one contract year left on Quarles! That particular team of mine has a real shot at the title this year. I hope, and pray, that yer wrong, Jene! If he can come close to last year's numbers.... however, I did have a great LB draft for that team.... Greenway, Lawson, Hodge.
I don't remember it that way... as I remember it, last year everyone was saying it would take a year before he pushed Quarles aside.Everyone said Ruud would put him on the bench last year... and it didn't happen.
Those seem like different approaches. If Sanders is knocked down due to fragility, why not Cowart?Sam Cowart is not a great player and is an injury risk but look at the situation.
You rank Bob Sanders high because when he is healthy he is a very consistent producer. At the end of the year his totals may not look so huge but you can count on him to produce every time he plays. If only he can stay healthy!
I never said anything about knocking Sanders down. All I said is that he ranks higher than he projects because he is so consistent.Those seem like different approaches. If Sanders is knocked down due to fragility, why not Cowart?Sam Cowart is not a great player and is an injury risk but look at the situation.
You rank Bob Sanders high because when he is healthy he is a very consistent producer. At the end of the year his totals may not look so huge but you can count on him to produce every time he plays. If only he can stay healthy!
Ah, I get it now. Thanks for the clarification.I never said anything about knocking Sanders down. All I said is that he ranks higher than he projects because he is so consistent.Those seem like different approaches. If Sanders is knocked down due to fragility, why not Cowart?Sam Cowart is not a great player and is an injury risk but look at the situation.
You rank Bob Sanders high because when he is healthy he is a very consistent producer. At the end of the year his totals may not look so huge but you can count on him to produce every time he plays. If only he can stay healthy!
Awesome discussion BTW. Thanks for the additional thoughts.I completely disagree with the comments that Demorrio Williams looked lost last year. He was a rookie who made some mistakes but he made a lot of impressive plays and improved greatly as the season went on. I don't know or care if Hartwell comes back healthy. He totaled a whopping 16-6-0 in the five games he started last year and looked bad. Even if he is healthy he is a 2 down player while Williams will stay on the field in passing situations. This was happening last year even before Hartwell went down. I may back off a little on my projections for Williams but I believe (at least at this point) that he will be a top 30 LB again this season.
All this happened as a starting player though. Unless he beats out Michael Boley for the SLB role or Hartwell isn't recovered enough to regain his 2 down MLB role, Williams will be a situational player. Hartwell may not be very effective but he'll be on the field if healthy. It sure looks like the coaching staff feels Boley is the better option on the strong side. Williams needs some breaks to get on the field. If he does, I agree, he's a top 30 player easily.
I don't believe Colby Bockwoldt will survive training camp as the starter and certainly not the entire season. Keep an eye on Fincher who was a tackling machine in college.
We'll see about this one. Buckwoldt, Grant/Smith (although drafting Bush may have spared Grant), and the corners have been the only ones to escape the wrath of the new coaching staff so far. I'd keep an eye on Fincher as well, but that guy couldn't beat out McKinnon last year so I'm much more skeptical than this time last season.
Lance Briggs is a solid and consistent LB3 but he doesn't make a lot of big plays and his upside is limited so long as Urlacher is there. I personally wouldn't take him as a top 30 LB but you have a good point on the PD numbers. I missed on that one. Good call.
I wouldn't sell Briggs too short here, John. His upside will be limited with Urlacher there. But he had over 80 solos, 2 sacks, 2 INT, and double digit passes defended in the Tampa-2. The defense tends to spill things to the weak side and with Lovie using Urlacher much more aggressively than the typical Tampa-2 Mike, he'll get plenty of opportunities all on three downs. Not a LB1, but I think you can easily double his PD numbers and draft him as a top 25-30 guy.
I'm not high on Julian Peterson either but right now he is working at left (weak) OLB and if he stays there (and doesn't get hurt) he could very well meet my projections even with Lofa there. The Seahawks don't rush their WLB very often so if he switches positions (which could very well happen) the sacks will go up and the tackles will come down. You can't even look at his career numbers. He has been injured often while playing SLB in a 4-3 and then OLB in a 3-4. You are comparing apples to oranges. Look at the player himself and then the production that has come from the position he currently holds.
Peterson is the WLB? Really? I missed that if true. And I'm pretty sure it's the right side backer that's aligned on the weak side anyway.
My Man Ray.. Don't worry, I won't back off this one. He is hacked off over hearing the doubters and has something to prove. He's a competitor and one of the best to ever play the game. Now that he has the big man up front that he lobbied for, there are no excuses and I don't think he will need to make any. (P.S. JB if you want to trade him back to me in NAFFA I'm game)
I'd deal him to you immediately - except I traded him for LT three years ago.Want Demorrio instead???
"some of these rankings are laughable.....seems like they were just run through a program that bumped up a certain % from last year"
How else would you go about making projections? You look at history of the player, the position. Then you look at what has changed with him and/or around him. Then you make your projections up or down whatever % you deem fitting based upon all considerations. I find this statement a little "laughable".
(JB)
It's way too early to get a good read on the Raiders LB situation. I agree with the comments about Howard but there are some speculating that they won't even start him this year and will continue to use their "big nickel" base defense with Gibson playing SS up in the box and Michael Huff replacing Renaldo Hill as the "floating safety". We'll have to see on this one.
I'd love to see this - Gibson's a tease and Hill put up pretty nice stats in that role last year. Huff would represent a big upgrade and be big value in dynasty leagues.
I have to agree with JB to an extent on his comments about the group of cover 2 corners. Those guys should probably be bumped a little but corners are oh so inconsistent from year to year. Winfield for example, '02, 51 solo stops, '03, 94. '04, 64 solos, '05, 89. So is this a 66 year or a 90? You don't have that problem so much with good dependable safeties. Last year was the first time Nate Clements EVER reached 60 solo stops so should we trust him to hit 80+ again? I don't, cover 2 or not.
Any RCB who's willing to hit in run support in a Tampa-2 defense should hit 75 solos easily. With Clements' ball skills and coverage/big play stats, that tackle number should make him a lock for the top ten. Winfield would've projected into the mid-70s in 2004 if he'd played two more games and he hasn't played in a Cover-2 scheme. He's slated to play on the left though. But both could be Barber or Tillman-esque this season.
I'm already chomping for some![]()
Got that right.
I completely disagree with the comments that Demorrio Williams looked lost last year. He was a rookie who made some mistakes but he made a lot of impressive plays and improved greatly as the season went on. I don't know or care if Hartwell comes back healthy. He totaled a whopping 16-6-0 in the five games he started last year and looked bad. Even if he is healthy he is a 2 down player while Williams will stay on the field in passing situations. This was happening last year even before Hartwell went down. I may back off a little on my projections for Williams but I believe (at least at this point) that he will be a top 30 LB again this season.
All this happened as a starting player though. Unless he beats out Michael Boley for the SLB role or Hartwell isn't recovered enough to regain his 2 down MLB role, Williams will be a situational player. Hartwell may not be very effective but he'll be on the field if healthy. It sure looks like the coaching staff feels Boley is the better option on the strong side. Williams needs some breaks to get on the field. If he does, I agree, he's a top 30 player easily.
I'm not sold on Boley and I just don't see them keeping Williams off the field. This is one of those situations that it's really too early to call.
I don't believe Colby Bockwoldt will survive training camp as the starter and certainly not the entire season. Keep an eye on Fincher who was a tackling machine in college.
We'll see about this one. Buckwoldt, Grant/Smith (although drafting Bush may have spared Grant), and the corners have been the only ones to escape the wrath of the new coaching staff so far. I'd keep an eye on Fincher as well, but that guy couldn't beat out McKinnon last year so I'm much more skeptical than this time last season.
Point well taken. Another situation that is far from resolved to say the least. Anthony Simmons may be the club's best linebacker.
Lance Briggs is a solid and consistent LB3 but he doesn't make a lot of big plays and his upside is limited so long as Urlacher is there. I personally wouldn't take him as a top 30 LB but you have a good point on the PD numbers. I missed on that one. Good call.
I wouldn't sell Briggs too short here, John. His upside will be limited with Urlacher there. But he had over 80 solos, 2 sacks, 2 INT, and double digit passes defended in the Tampa-2. The defense tends to spill things to the weak side and with Lovie using Urlacher much more aggressively than the typical Tampa-2 Mike, he'll get plenty of opportunities all on three downs. Not a LB1, but I think you can easily double his PD numbers and draft him as a top 25-30 guy.
I'll take a closer look here. I just can't get passed the vision of his '04 season with 102 solo stops but no sacks, no forced fumbles, no recoveries and just 1 interception.
I'm not high on Julian Peterson either but right now he is working at left (weak) OLB and if he stays there (and doesn't get hurt) he could very well meet my projections even with Lofa there. The Seahawks don't rush their WLB very often so if he switches positions (which could very well happen) the sacks will go up and the tackles will come down. You can't even look at his career numbers. He has been injured often while playing SLB in a 4-3 and then OLB in a 3-4. You are comparing apples to oranges. Look at the player himself and then the production that has come from the position he currently holds.
Peterson is the WLB? Really? I missed that if true. And I'm pretty sure it's the right side backer that's aligned on the weak side anyway.
You are correct, I had a brain cramp there. It is the right side that is usually weak. Shortly after Peterson signed I read that they were planning to play him on the right and keep Hill on the left. We'll have to see if they stick to that
My Man Ray.. Don't worry, I won't back off this one. He is hacked off over hearing the doubters and has something to prove. He's a competitor and one of the best to ever play the game. Now that he has the big man up front that he lobbied for, there are no excuses and I don't think he will need to make any. (P.S. JB if you want to trade him back to me in NAFFA I'm game)
I'd deal him to you immediately - except I traded him for LT three years ago.Want Demorrio instead???
Since you think he's a backup on his own team the price would be real cheap right?.
my take on this situation:Brooking is the WLB and should be an everydown LB so he'll continue to be productive (has gone to 5 straight Pro Bowls). His solo numbers have dropped the past couple years to 86 and 89 but he's also added 5.5 sacks and 7 interceptions during that time and never misses a game. Projecting him for 84 solos, 1 sack, and 1 INT seems low to me as well.even if Demorrio Williams starts at SLB, that's hardly the position to put up the same numbers as last year, and in order for your projection to hold true, he would have to produce the same if not better than last year.
I just don't see it, starting SLB or situational LB, just don't see it. Remember that the strong side backer isn't necessary the most talented LB, it's usually the one that has the speed and can cover the TE the best and be able to drop into coverage as well. So just cause D.Williams is talented, doesn't mean he's the right fit for the SLB.
He could beat out Hartwell for the WLB, but I highly doubt that since they have so much invested in Hartwell.
Just my 2 cents.
A healthy Hartwell and Beck will greatly improve the depth of this LB unit compared to a year ago, and Boley should show improvement in his 2nd year. There simply won't be as many opportunities for Williams when everybody is healthy. The best he can hope for is more problems for Hartwell and Beck inside, which would force the team to move Brooking again. I guess its also possible that he could beat out Boley for the starting SLB job and continue to play in the nickel package, but the team doesn't seem too thrilled with that option right now.Demorrio Williams, who started all 16 games, initially on the strong side, then at the weak side, will be used as a hybrid player, lining up as a fourth linebacker in some sets or a spy-type safety in others. Veteran Ike Reese will back up all three spots.
I understand and you guys may well be right. I completely agree that Williams is actually a better fit at WLB but I do like his talent a lot. I can see them moving Brooking back inside at some point, to get Williams on the field. Especially if Hartwell doesn't play much better than he did before the injury last year. Big money or not, the Falcons are looking to win and they will play their best three. I just think Williams is one of those three. Besides what fun would it be if we all agreed on everythingI'd deal him to you immediately - except I traded him for LT three years ago.Want Demorrio instead???
Since you think he's a backup on his own team the price would be real cheap right?.
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I'm just reporting the facts on Boley/Williams as I see/hear them. I really like Demorrio as a talent. And you know as well as anybody that I'm willing to waste valuable roster space on guys just like him (Bradie James, DJ Williams, Thomas Davis, Boss Bailey, and on and on and on).
That's how you gave me my sig BTW....
Bills DT John McCargo with 37 solos and 4 sacks and DT Larry Tripplett with 26 solos and 2 sacks. The Bills signed Larry Tripplett to a pretty large contract and he will start at the under tackle position. McCargo is still considered a bit of a project and right now is expected to backup Tripplett and play on passing downs. Unless you really don't like Tripplett or just love McCargo, I think it would make sense to swap the projections for these two players.
I am not at all impressed with Triplett. He's not a bad player but is certainly nothing special. In 43 starts for the Colts over the past three years he totaled all of 81 solo tackles and 5 sacks. McCargo may be a rookie but he will start from day one and I believe he ultimately is much more talented and a bigger pass rush threat than Triplett. Neither of these guys are likely to have a big fantasy impact though.
Also, regarding the Bills, I probably would take away the tackles from Coy Wire and distribute them to CBs Eric King and Ashton Youboty. It would be hard to imagine Whitner not starting right away and Wire is unlikely to win a spot in the dime defense b/c he can't cover and doesn't make plays.
I'll take look here but if my feeble memory serves me I didn't project Wire with many tackles to begin with. Once I see Whitner claim the starting job for sure I'll be giving Wire even less consideration. I don't see King or Youboty being any factor at all unless there are a bunch of injuries
It looks like the two players I projected to start for the Dolphins at safety, Deke Cooper and Jason Allen, have no projected stats. I'm really not sure what they are going to do with their safety position, but I think those two safeties and Yeremiah Bell are all better options than Travares Tillman. I was really liking Hill's prospects for this year up until they drafted Jason Allen. I suppose Hill could take over the strong safety spot, but I think it's more likely that him and Allen split the FS/nickel back jobs somehow.
I'll go out on a strong limb here and say that barring injuries, Cooper will never start a regular season game. He's a backup quality specual teams guy. I do however agree with you on Tillman. I believe Hill will eventually migrate back to safety and claim a starting job. The bottom line is that Miami is hurting for a SS... I actually projected Allen to start at FS. Don't know why he didn't show up but I will look into it for the update. Possibly I had the player ID tag wrong? I dunno but we'll get it fixed.
With apologies for the hi-jack...here's the latest on Sirmon, Rovers. You probably won't like it.Tennessean.com via FFLiveWireI'm not really up on Sirmon as much as I'd like to be. I got him CHEAP this offseason, on the chance he would be the starting MLB. If he wins it, I hope he's a decent bye week fill-in. Jene, you think he's a two down backer at best if he starts at MLB? He was on the outside last year, if I'm not mistaken. Still, I think the Titans D spends a lot of time on the field this year.
Back to the regularly scheduled debate...Still, Sirmon's far from a lock to be the starter in between Thornton and Keith Bulluck when the season starts.
Speed is not his forte, and getting faster has been a major point of emphasis for the Titans this offseason. Sirmon and Titans Coach Jeff Fisher both said the reconstructive knee surgery that cost him the entire 2004 season is no longer an issue.
Sirmon also isn't cheaply priced, and the Titans are going to approach him at some point about lowering a scheduled $2.4 million base salary, a big number even for a veteran in what isn't a full-time role in the defense.
The middle linebacker typically leaves the field in favor of an additional defensive back in clear-cut passing situations.
It's a job that might be better suited for a rookie such as Stephen Tulloch, drafted out of North Carolina State in the fourth round. Tulloch is faster and he certainly will be cheaper, and there won't be any reluctance on the part of the Titans in asking him to play a big role on special teams.
Hey John,I felt the exact same as you on Williams at the end of last season. Maybe the best source for quick post season team reports is this page at USA Today. They do a great job analyzing the past season and interviewing staff while everything is still fresh. Unfortunately they continually update every report with breaking news and the juicy stuff gets deleted. Next year I will copy all of them very early because the info is so solid. Anyway, there was palpable dissatisfaction with Demorrio despite his numbers immediately following the season. And the initial report suggested what many here believe-- good chance he doesn't start next year. I'm on the fence, but I know the report was valid, not speculation. Just sayin'.I understand and you guys may well be right. I completely agree that Williams is actually a better fit at WLB but I do like his talent a lot. I can see them moving Brooking back inside at some point, to get Williams on the field. Especially if Hartwell doesn't play much better than he did before the injury last year. Big money or not, the Falcons are looking to win and they will play their best three. I just think Williams is one of those three. Besides what fun would it be if we all agreed on everythingI'd deal him to you immediately - except I traded him for LT three years ago.Want Demorrio instead???
Since you think he's a backup on his own team the price would be real cheap right?.
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I'm just reporting the facts on Boley/Williams as I see/hear them. I really like Demorrio as a talent. And you know as well as anybody that I'm willing to waste valuable roster space on guys just like him (Bradie James, DJ Williams, Thomas Davis, Boss Bailey, and on and on and on).
That's how you gave me my sig BTW....![]()
Thanks, Jene..... not really a hijack, as Sirmon's projections would go up significantly if he does in fact win the starting MLB spot, although it would most likely be as a two down backer. However, you didn't include the more posive notes on Sirmon in that article.....AP reports LB Peter Sirmon was upset when the Titans signed free-agent LB David Thornton to fill what had been his position. His initial reaction was to ask to be released. But more than two months later, Sirmon said he's feeling better about things, and he sounds like he'd like to be part of the defense the Titans roll out at the Coliseum in the season opener against the Jets on Sept. 10.With apologies for the hi-jack...here's the latest on Sirmon, Rovers. You probably won't like it.Tennessean.com via FFLiveWireI'm not really up on Sirmon as much as I'd like to be. I got him CHEAP this offseason, on the chance he would be the starting MLB. If he wins it, I hope he's a decent bye week fill-in. Jene, you think he's a two down backer at best if he starts at MLB? He was on the outside last year, if I'm not mistaken. Still, I think the Titans D spends a lot of time on the field this year.
Back to the regularly scheduled debate...Still, Sirmon's far from a lock to be the starter in between Thornton and Keith Bulluck when the season starts.
Speed is not his forte, and getting faster has been a major point of emphasis for the Titans this offseason. Sirmon and Titans Coach Jeff Fisher both said the reconstructive knee surgery that cost him the entire 2004 season is no longer an issue.
Sirmon also isn't cheaply priced, and the Titans are going to approach him at some point about lowering a scheduled $2.4 million base salary, a big number even for a veteran in what isn't a full-time role in the defense.
The middle linebacker typically leaves the field in favor of an additional defensive back in clear-cut passing situations.
It's a job that might be better suited for a rookie such as Stephen Tulloch, drafted out of North Carolina State in the fourth round. Tulloch is faster and he certainly will be cheaper, and there won't be any reluctance on the part of the Titans in asking him to play a big role on special teams.
Thanks for the link. I'll be looking closer at this situation after this discussion.Hey John,
I felt the exact same as you on Williams at the end of last season. Maybe the best source for quick post season team reports is this page at USA Today. They do a great job analyzing the past season and interviewing staff while everything is still fresh. Unfortunately they continually update every report with breaking news and the juicy stuff gets deleted. Next year I will copy all of them very early because the info is so solid. Anyway, there was palpable dissatisfaction with Demorrio despite his numbers immediately following the season. And the initial report suggested what many here believe-- good chance he doesn't start next year. I'm on the fence, but I know the report was valid, not speculation. Just sayin'.
this is interesting to me.on the one hand, you are projecting that McCargo will beat out Tripplett for the starting UT job despite every single report this offseason suggesting Tripplett is a lock to start there. Tripplett was the team's biggest free agent signing this offseason and is a prototypical 3-technique tackle coming off his best season in Indy playing in the same defensive system. McCargo, meanwhile, is a 21-year old who came out after his junior year, missed half the season with an injury, and hasn't played in this system before. I'm not sure why you are so confident that McCargo will start from day one but I'd bet money against that. I expect the Bills starters will be Tripplett and Anderson with McCargo backing up Tripplett and coming in on passing downs. Kyle Williams will likely win the backup NT job. Best case scenario for McCargo, IMHO, is a 50/50 split with Tripplett.I am not at all impressed with Triplett. He's not a bad player but is certainly nothing special. In 43 starts for the Colts over the past three years he totaled all of 81 solo tackles and 5 sacks. McCargo may be a rookie but he will start from day one and I believe he ultimately is much more talented and a bigger pass rush threat than Triplett. Neither of these guys are likely to have a big fantasy impact though.
I'll take look here but if my feeble memory serves me I didn't project Wire with many tackles to begin with. Once I see Whitner claim the starting job for sure I'll be giving Wire even less consideration. I don't see King or Youboty being any factor at all unless there are a bunch of injuries
Whitner is not a minor player, but Coy Wire, Eric King, and Ashton Youboty likely are for fantasy purposes this year.Wire is a very good special teams player, which will give him a decent chance to make the team. But, the secondary is going to be crowded this year and some good players are going to be let go:I don't agree that the Buffalo safety situation is one of minor players. Whatever player wins that job could put up pretty good DB numbers. I agree, the FA aquisition of Bowen, and the drafting of Whitner says they aren't very confident in Wire at all. Even if they use some sort of rotation, I figure Wire is low man on the totem pole. Not only did they take Whitner, they LEAPED for him that high.
For a team with big questions on both the D and O lines..... the Whitner pick says to me Wire is hanging by a thread, so to speak!
My comment regarding Wire was directed at his playing time at safety.... not as to whether or not he'd make the roster. I think Whitner is most likely to start, with Bowen having an outside shot if Whitner struggles a bit in the transistion to the NFL, which I don't expect to see happen. If Whitner starts from week 1, I expect to see him put up some good numbers. Possible top 20 in the DB category, although top thirty may be more likely. Rookie safeties cracking the topo ten isn't all that rare though.... Coleman did it in 2004, Rhodes in 2005. M Williams is another. Could Whitner and Huff be next?Whitner is not a minor player, but Coy Wire, Eric King, and Ashton Youboty likely are for fantasy purposes this year.Wire is a very good special teams player, which will give him a decent chance to make the team. But, the secondary is going to be crowded this year and some good players are going to be let go:I don't agree that the Buffalo safety situation is one of minor players. Whatever player wins that job could put up pretty good DB numbers. I agree, the FA aquisition of Bowen, and the drafting of Whitner says they aren't very confident in Wire at all. Even if they use some sort of rotation, I figure Wire is low man on the totem pole. Not only did they take Whitner, they LEAPED for him that high.
For a team with big questions on both the D and O lines..... the Whitner pick says to me Wire is hanging by a thread, so to speak!
CB - Clements, McGee, Youboty, King are all locks to make the team. Greer is a solid 5th CB and Kiwaukee Thomas has been in the league for 7 years so he can provide quality depth as well.
S - Whitner, Vincent, Bowen, Wire, Simpson, Baker are the top 6. Jim Leonhard made the team last year as a 5th safety but he looks like the 7th best for this year. If they keep 5 safeties again, Wire should make the team, but if they drop back down to 4, he could be the odd man out.
this is interesting to me.on the one hand, you are projecting that McCargo will beat out Tripplett for the starting UT job despite every single report this offseason suggesting Tripplett is a lock to start there. Tripplett was the team's biggest free agent signing this offseason and is a prototypical 3-technique tackle coming off his best season in Indy playing in the same defensive system. McCargo, meanwhile, is a 21-year old who came out after his junior year, missed half the season with an injury, and hasn't played in this system before. I'm not sure why you are so confident that McCargo will start from day one but I'd bet money against that. I expect the Bills starters will be Tripplett and Anderson with McCargo backing up Tripplett and coming in on passing downs. Kyle Williams will likely win the backup NT job. Best case scenario for McCargo, IMHO, is a 50/50 split with Tripplett.I am not at all impressed with Triplett. He's not a bad player but is certainly nothing special. In 43 starts for the Colts over the past three years he totaled all of 81 solo tackles and 5 sacks. McCargo may be a rookie but he will start from day one and I believe he ultimately is much more talented and a bigger pass rush threat than Triplett. Neither of these guys are likely to have a big fantasy impact though
I'll take look here but if my feeble memory serves me I didn't project Wire with many tackles to begin with. Once I see Whitner claim the starting job for sure I'll be giving Wire even less consideration. I don't see King or Youboty being any factor at all unless there are a bunch of injuries
Who said anything about McCargo beating out Triplett? I expect him to beat out Anderson and start beside Triplett. Yes Triplett is a proven veteran, which is why he will see the double teams, not McCargo. Yes Triplett is coming off his best season ever. In the three years prior he had just one total sack. Last year he was in Indy who has Freeney, Mathis and Brock combining for 27 sacks. Meanwhile the Bills have Schobel with 12 and the next best guy with 4. Buffalo is a young club that needs experience. They didn't trade up for McCargo to have him sit and watch while the rest of their young guys get experience. If they were sold on Anderson they wouldn't have been so eager to go get McCargo.
Then, on the other hand, you are still giving Wire a chance to play at SS when the team went out and signed Bowen in free agency and then used a top-10 pick on a SS. They clearly don't have much faith in Wire's abilities. In fact, your argument about Deke Cooper being nothing more than a backup and special teams guy would fit Coy Wire perfectly. He's useless in coverage. As for King and Youboty, I guess we just disagree there. I think whoever winds up with the nickel job has a good chance to put up 25-30 solo tackles. I guess if they split that role (King early and Youboty late), neither will do much. But, the team likes King and Youboty was drafted as a potential replacement for Clements next year so I expect both to see regular playing time. More than Wire anyway.
I projected Wire with all of 21 tackles, he could have that many on special teams. So why are we even having this discussion? I never suggested he would have any shot at starting. All I said is that Whitner may not play full time from day one. When a rookie DT makes a mistake the runner gains 10-12 yards. When a rookie safety make a mistake it's a TD. With Bowen there I expect them to ease Whitner into the lineup slowly over the first month or two of the season.
btw, these are all very minor players so this isn't a big deal and I realize it's impossible to be up on every player and situation around the league. You did an awesome job here and I'm just trying to add my perspectives as a Bills homer who follows the team very closely. I just found it interesting that you are so much more confident about McCargo's starting prospects than Whitner, b/c I feel completely opposite there.
interesting. I didn't realize you were projecting McCargo to start at nose tackle right away. My mistake. That doesn't really seem like a good fit for him right now, IMO and reports from the Bills after the draft have said "they think he can eventually develop into a nose tackle". Even after Tripplett was signed, the Bills made a strong effort to sign Ryan Pickett to play NT, and most Bills fans hoped/expected the Bills would draft a NT with their first round pick so I agree they are not sold on Tim Anderson. But, the McCargo pick shocked everybody b/c people don't think he's a legit nose tackle right now. I think Kyle Williams actually might have a better chance of beating out Anderson than McCargo for that spot. Maybe I'm underrating McCargo or overrating the need for a solid run defender at the NT spot in the Bills new scheme, but he seems like more of a speed guy who will be much more effective at the under tackle spot.Who said anything about McCargo beating out Triplett? I expect him to beat out Anderson and start beside Triplett. Yes Triplett is a proven veteran, which is why he will see the double teams, not McCargo. Yes Triplett is coming off his best season ever. In the three years prior he had just one total sack. Last year he was in Indy who has Freeney, Mathis and Brock combining for 27 sacks. Meanwhile the Bills have Schobel with 12 and the next best guy with 4. Buffalo is a young club that needs experience. They didn't trade up for McCargo to have him sit and watch while the rest of their young guys get experience. If they were sold on Anderson they wouldn't have been so eager to go get McCargo.
Yes, 21 tackles isn't much, but King had more than that last year and Youboty could put up 20+ solo tackles this year as well and they weren't listed. My initial comment suggested that you could probably give those 21 tackles from Wire to either King or Youboty, since I expect them to see a lot more playing time on defense. I was just trying to be helpful as I think they will both outproduce Wire this year, and as I posted above, I think there's a decent chance Wire doesn't even make the final roster. I don't disagree with you about them trying to ease Whitner in a bit, but I also think they'll probably just let him learn on the job. With good CBs in place and a vet like Troy Vincent behind him and Fletcher and Spikes in front of him, he shouldn't have to do too much. I guess we'll see how it works out.Like I said, these are almost all pretty minor players for fantasy purposes. I was just trying to help improve the overall quality of the projections by pointing out a couple things that seemed off to me. If you disagree with me and see things differently, no worries at all. Projecting performance for backups is obviously difficult as we don't have a good idea of how much playing time they will get.I projected Wire with all of 21 tackles, he could have that many on special teams. So why are we even having this discussion? I never suggested he would have any shot at starting. All I said is that Whitner may not play full time from day one. When a rookie DT makes a mistake the runner gains 10-12 yards. When a rookie safety make a mistake it's a TD. With Bowen there I expect them to ease Whitner into the lineup slowly over the first month or two of the season.
No offense taken Aaron, it's all good conversation. I generally try to project anyone that I feel will contribute more than a hand full of tackles or who may see some action in a relief role. You are closer to the Buffalo situation than I so you may well be right about King and Youboty. I was/am unsure who would land the nickel role. I figured Greer might get some of those snaps so I listed him, but also could see them sliding former corner Vincent over to cover the slot receiver with Whitner and Bowen at the safeties in the nickel. You make some valid points and this is a situation that I will be looking at a little closer down the road. On the McCargo thing, I don't expect them to play him as a true NT who would line up over the center. I believe they move the RDT around depending on the formation and line him up anywhere from the inside shoulder of the OT to the center/guard gap. Everyone agrees that drafting him as they did was a surprise and a reach but I think that will motivate them even more to get him on the field. They will want to show us that they knew what they were doing. Regardless of who officilally starts they will use a rotation. Unless he is a flop, I just see McCargo out producing Anderson by the end of the season. That said, neither guy is going to have much fantasy impact.Yes, 21 tackles isn't much, but King had more than that last year and Youboty could put up 20+ solo tackles this year as well and they weren't listed. My initial comment suggested that you could probably give those 21 tackles from Wire to either King or Youboty, since I expect them to see a lot more playing time on defense. I was just trying to be helpful as I think they will both outproduce Wire this year, and as I posted above, I think there's a decent chance Wire doesn't even make the final roster. I don't disagree with you about them trying to ease Whitner in a bit, but I also think they'll probably just let him learn on the job. With good CBs in place and a vet like Troy Vincent behind him and Fletcher and Spikes in front of him, he shouldn't have to do too much. I guess we'll see how it works out.
Like I said, these are almost all pretty minor players for fantasy purposes. I was just trying to help improve the overall quality of the projections by pointing out a couple things that seemed off to me. If you disagree with me and see things differently, no worries at all. Projecting performance for backups is obviously difficult as we don't have a good idea of how much playing time they will get.
Since we're on this topic already, do you normally project stats for the nickel back? With the way things are in the NFL these days, it certainly seems like nickel packages wind up spending a lot of time on the field. This is the reason why I thought King or Youboty should be included in your projections somehow. If the argument against including them is that we don't yet know who will be the nickel CB, then I agree. But, your statement that you don't expect either to be a factor unless there was a bunch of injuries threw me off a bit. Even the Bears last year, who had two great starting CBs in Tillman and Vasher, got 37 solos from #3 CB Jerry Azumah. Maybe that's not the best example since Azumah was a former starter, but I wonder how often the #3 CB on a team doesn't crack at least 20 solo tackles (which I agree isn't making an impact)?
btw, don't take any of this as criticism. I'm basically just thinking out loud a bit and offering my thoughts on the Bills as if I was projecting them myself.
The only two things we know about the Rams linebackers at this point is that Witherspoon will start in the middle and Tinoisamoa will start somewhere. They paid Coakley a lot of money and he is a decent WLB. I projected him a little higher than Chillar only because the team currently has him listed as the starting WLB. To be honest it wouldn't surprise me to see them cut Coakley and recoup some money before the season opens. I don't know that he is a great fit in the new more physical scheme. If Chillar wins the WLB job he could have some value. I would project him higher than Coakley at the same position. This isn't the same old passive Rams defense.John,
From your projections it looks as if you see Coakley starting at WLB in StL over Brandon Chillar, a guy I feel could be a real steal this year.
Would you mind elaborating on that?
Thanks.
they will definitely use a rotation, but Tripplett should get the most playing time of all the DTs. That is why I said I thought you could swap the numbers for him and McCargo. Personally, I think McCargo is a bit of a project, but I hope you're right.Anyway, I'm working on my projections now myself so I definitely realize how difficult all of this can be.Regardless of who officilally starts they will use a rotation. Unless he is a flop, I just see McCargo out producing Anderson by the end of the season. That said, neither guy is going to have much fantasy impact.
Here is the link to an article on the subject from buffalobills.com
http://www.buffalobills.com/news/news.jsp?news_id=3785
LMAO! My skin is NOT thick enough to post projections! I'm much better at being a pot shot artist!they will definitely use a rotation, but Tripplett should get the most playing time of all the DTs. That is why I said I thought you could swap the numbers for him and McCargo. Personally, I think McCargo is a bit of a project, but I hope you're right.Anyway, I'm working on my projections now myself so I definitely realize how difficult all of this can be.Regardless of who officilally starts they will use a rotation. Unless he is a flop, I just see McCargo out producing Anderson by the end of the season. That said, neither guy is going to have much fantasy impact.
Here is the link to an article on the subject from buffalobills.com
http://www.buffalobills.com/news/news.jsp?news_id=3785
WLB: ChillarMLB: WitherspoonThe only two things we know about the Rams linebackers at this point is that Witherspoon will start in the middle and Tinoisamoa will start somewhere. They paid Coakley a lot of money and he is a decent WLB. I projected him a little higher than Chillar only because the team currently has him listed as the starting WLB. To be honest it wouldn't surprise me to see them cut Coakley and recoup some money before the season opens. I don't know that he is a great fit in the new more physical scheme. If Chillar wins the WLB job he could have some value. I would project him higher than Coakley at the same position. This isn't the same old passive Rams defense.John,
From your projections it looks as if you see Coakley starting at WLB in StL over Brandon Chillar, a guy I feel could be a real steal this year.
Would you mind elaborating on that?
Thanks.
I agree the "trade Dwight Smith" talk has me baffled also. When the Saints signed Smith, he was one of the best cover safeties in the NFL (played nickle CB for the Bucs). Sure...the entire Saints defense was porous, but I was shocked to see the Saints draft a Roman Harper in the 2nd AFTER netting Bryan Scott via trade. If I had to guess, Bullock swill be the starting SS while Harper and Scott will compete for the FS gig. It soulds as if Smith is all but out.Sporting News recently mentioned the possibility of the Saints trading Dwight Smith. Seems silly to me, as I thought he was one of their best defensive players last year, and he's versatile enough to play at several different positions. They like Bullocks from last year and drafted Roman Harper this year, but I don't see either player making Smith irrelevant for this season.
yeah, I forgot to mention Bryan Scott. He looked good early on in Atlanta, but they were pretty happy to be rid of him.I agree the "trade Dwight Smith" talk has me baffled also. When the Saints signed Smith, he was one of the best cover safeties in the NFL (played nickle CB for the Bucs). Sure...the entire Saints defense was porous, but I was shocked to see the Saints draft a Roman Harper in the 2nd AFTER netting Bryan Scott via trade. If I had to guess, Bullock swill be the starting SS while Harper and Scott will compete for the FS gig. It soulds as if Smith is all but out.