IDP Scoring for Fumbles (1 Viewer)

[TheMathNinja]

Would love to hear your guys' thoughts on how to ideally score fumbles forced and recovered in fantasy. Currently, I tend toward a "big play" scoring system, where solo tackles are 1 and assisted tackles are 0.5, and INT's are 8 points total (2 for Pass Defensed + 6 for INT bonus). I like turnovers being so high because they really do change the face of the game.

Anyway, I'm currently using a system where Forced Fumbles are 4 points and Fumble Recoveries are 4 points. In my thinking, you need both to cause the turnover, so combined they ought to equal an interception (where one player "does it all" rather than two combining for a turnover). My question is this: have any of you found data on the percentage of forced fumbles that are recovered? In particular, if it turns out that 75% of fumbles forced by the defense are also recovered by the defense, that makes me think that the fumble forcer did 75% of the work, and so I would want to make forced fumbles 6 points, and recoveries 2 points, since the forcer performed an action that's, on average, worth 6 points in my 8-points-per-turnover scheme.

I can find data on what percentage of fumbles are forced, and also what percentage of fumbles are recovered by the defense, but for whatever reason I cannot find data on what percentage of forced fumbles are recovered by the defense (my intuition says that it's a higher percentage than unforced fumbles, but I'd like the hard facts on this one).

 

[TheMathNinja]

My league scores FF at 4 and FR at 2.

Do you know the reasoning behind this? I understand that forced fumbles are well-documented as more of a "skill" and more repeatable than recoveries, but what philosophical basis is given for their being more valuable? My thinking is that just because something is more random doesn't make it less valuable to your team, and fantasy points measure production, not skillfulness or talent.

 

[Jene Bramel]

Some numbers from Chase Stuart last October at Football Perspective.

http://www.footballperspective.com/the-definitive-analysis-of-offensive-fumbles/

 

[TheMathNinja]

Some numbers from Chase Stuart last October at Football Perspective.

http://www.footballperspective.com/the-definitive-analysis-of-offensive-fumbles/

Thanks for that, Jene. I've actually read that article (even commented on it at the bottom), but nowhere in that article is there discussion of forces vs. non-forces. Otherwise it would be a complete analysis, IMO. Still looking for answers here.

 

[dingwog]

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2013/06/27/the-pff-idp-scoring-system-revisited/

We moved to PFF IDP scoring a few years back and love it. This article came out as a revision and I adjusted mWe moved to PFF IDP scoring a few years back and love it. This article camps a revision and I adjusted my scoring rules accordingly. Yes you look at the numbers and they are surprising but if you plug them in, they make sense. JPP and J Allen had great seasons in 2011 and finished 26 & 24 overall in my scoring. Watt had an all time season and he was 8 overall. I think it's just as it should be.

This scoring correctly rewards defensive players and not just 3-down LBs. A guy like Peanut Tillman can finish in the top 8 for all defenders and that sounds perfect. In my other IDP dynasty with "normal" IDP scoring, Watt finished #60 Overall and Tilllman #56. What?

Try this. It works, correctly rewarding rush ends and backers, cover corners that make plays and the scoring rules accordingly. Yes you look at the numbers and they are surprising but if you plug them in, they make sense. JPP and J Allen had great seasons in 2011 and finished 26 & 24 overall in my scoring. Watt had an all time season and he was 8 overall. I think it's just as it should be.

This scoring correctly rewards defensive players and not just 3-down LBs. A guy like Peanut Tillman can finish in the top 8 for all defenders and that sounds perfect. In my other IDP dynasty with "normal" IDP scoring, Watt finished #60 Overall and Tilllman #56. What?

Try this. It works, correctly rewarding rush ends and backers, cover corners that make plays and the stud LBs.

 

[dingwog]

Oh and read the first article. Goes in to more detail on answers your looking for. I know your looking for data but that may be hard to find. An overall balanced system is what your looking for, yes?

 

[Jene Bramel]

Some numbers from Chase Stuart last October at Football Perspective.http://www.footballperspective.com/the-definitive-analysis-of-offensive-fumbles/

Thanks for that, Jene. I've actually read that article (even commented on it at the bottom), but nowhere in that article is there discussion of forces vs. non-forces. Otherwise it would be a complete analysis, IMO. Still looking for answers here.

I would check with Chase by email. Looks like FO offered data on breaking down his QB aborted run column. Depending on the percentage of those that are non-forced, which I'd guess would be pretty high, a rough estimate of the %rec in that column with the aborted snaps column should get you reasonably close to the correct answer.