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IDP - Under/Over valued players (1 Viewer)

podunker

Footballguy
Just thought it would be interesting to get the thoughts of some of you experts in this forum like they do for the offensive players in the Shark Pool. My thought probably don't mean much, but here goes anyway. UndervaluedDB's - S Knight, W Demps,C Woodson, D StarksLB's - Zach Thomas, Al Wilson, Trotter, Barrow, Kassel, Foote, CowartDL - G Wistrom, R Seymour, K Jenkins, A HaynesworthOvervaluedDB's - E Reed, S Taylor, R Harrison, Mike GreenLB's - J Vilma , DJ Williams, L Briggs, C JuneDL - Sapp, R Mathis, J Hall,C Griffin

 
Just thought it would be interesting to get the thoughts of some of you experts in this forum like they do for the offensive players in the Shark Pool. My thought probably don't mean much, but here goes anyway.

Undervalued

DB's - S Knight, W Demps,C Woodson, D Starks

LB's - Zach Thomas, Al Wilson, Trotter, Barrow, Kassel, Foote, Cowart

DL - G Wistrom, R Seymour, K Jenkins, A Haynesworth

Overvalued

DB's - E Reed, S Taylor, R Harrison, Mike Green

LB's - J Vilma , DJ Williams, L Briggs, C June

DL - Sapp, R Mathis, J Hall,C Griffin
On a couple of your overvalued list:I don't think there are many people around valueing Warren Sapp for much of anything - he's basically done might be worth a shot in a redraft, but no value in dynasty.

If it's dynasty, Vilma is pretty hard to overvalue amongst just IDP's - he's a guy who's proven he can play at a high level and is really young. If you start to see people trade him for LT or something then we might be getting crazy, but right now he should command a very nice offensive player in return straight up, even with the general bias against IDP's.

Taylor's value in the last few weeks has plummeted - I'd say he's too volatile to peg accurately right now - variation between league to league is likely very large.

 
Just thought it would be interesting to get the thoughts of some of you experts in this forum like they do for the offensive players in the Shark Pool. My thought probably don't mean much, but here goes anyway.

Undervalued

DB's - S Knight, W Demps,C Woodson, D Starks

LB's - Zach Thomas, Al Wilson, Trotter, Barrow, Kassel, Foote, Cowart

DL - G Wistrom, R Seymour, K Jenkins, A Haynesworth

Overvalued

DB's - E Reed, S Taylor, R Harrison, Mike Green

LB's - J Vilma , DJ Williams, L Briggs, C June

DL - Sapp, R Mathis, J Hall,C Griffin
On a couple of your overvalued list:I don't think there are many people around valueing Warren Sapp for much of anything - he's basically done might be worth a shot in a redraft, but no value in dynasty.

If it's dynasty, Vilma is pretty hard to overvalue amongst just IDP's - he's a guy who's proven he can play at a high level and is really young. If you start to see people trade him for LT or something then we might be getting crazy, but right now he should command a very nice offensive player in return straight up, even with the general bias against IDP's.

Taylor's value in the last few weeks has plummeted - I'd say he's too volatile to peg accurately right now - variation between league to league is likely very large.
:goodposting: I'm in 6 dynasty leagues and I'd be surprized if Sapp is rostered in more than one. I think he is either undervalued or worthless. Take your pick. I also agree with Steve on Vilma.I'm not sure that I agree with Wistrom and Seymour as undervalued. Maybe Wistrom belongs on your list and I am the prime example of someone that undervalues him. Seymour looks to be headed into a contract squabble. I think people are being cautious rather than undervaluing him.

Just my :2cents: ...

 
OvervaluedLB Will Witherspoon He put up big numbers when he got to play the middle for often injured Dan Morgan.He's penciled in at WLB but the Panthers aren't sure where there putting Thomas Davis.Davis looks like he will play SS on first and 2nd and in the Nickel and Dime replaceWitherspoon at LB.He is being ranked right where he finished last year around 17th which had alot to do with Morgan being out.Adding Thomas Davis and a healthy Morgan I see no value for him at all this year.

 
- I agree with you on Will Demps and Grant Wistrom being undervalued.- Not quite sure how you can include Rodney Harrison on your overvalued list. All he has done the past two seasons is post top 10 LB numbers from his SS slot. Meanwhile, he has been the highest scoring DB in most formats for 2 years running. He is like having an extra LB in your starting lineup each week.- Vilma has the look of the real deal. The list is pretty short of backers I would select before him.- How can Warren Sapp be overvalued? I would replace Warren Sapp on the overvalued list with Dwight Freeney. :banned:

 
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IMO you can pretty much add any DB who had a career year last year. McGee and Dunta Robinson come to mind. Great players, but still Corners.Also, T-New, Sean Jones, and Adam Jones.Also, Derrick Johnson and DJ Williams. I like the guys for their NFL teams, but I've seen them go as the 8th and 9th LBs, way too high for SLB's IMO.

 
I think we don't honestly know if that was Dunta's career year - it might be, but he's in a package where corners are asked to do run support.I do think it's unlikely he'll put up those numbers year after year, but I don't think we'll be able to value him in the sense of what he's worth in trade, because most people who snagged him aren't dealing him - especially in corner-required leagues.In general career years do cause players to become over-valued, unless the year in question is quickly shown NOT to be a career year - in which case it's too late to get them.I've been trying to figure out whether my young DB's acquired from last year - Boulware, Wilson, & Robinson - are really as good as they seem to be. It seems too good to be true, so it probably is.

 
Just thought it would be interesting to get the thoughts of some of you experts in this forum like they do for the offensive players in the Shark Pool. My thought probably don't mean much, but here goes anyway.

Undervalued

DB's - S Knight, W Demps,C Woodson, D Starks

LB's - Zach Thomas, Al Wilson, Trotter, Barrow, Kassel, Foote, Cowart

DL - G Wistrom, R Seymour, K Jenkins, A Haynesworth

Overvalued

DB's - E Reed, S Taylor, R Harrison, Mike Green

LB's - J Vilma , DJ Williams, L Briggs, C June

DL - Sapp, R Mathis, J Hall,C Griffin
UndervaluedDB- Fred Smoot in MIN

LB- Teddy Lehman in DET

DL- Will Smith in NO

Overvalued

DB-Corey Chavous

LB- Kailee Wong

DL-Bert Berry

Tom

 
Just thought it would be interesting to get the thoughts of some of you experts in this forum like they do for the offensive players in the Shark Pool. My thought probably don't mean much, but here goes anyway.

Undervalued

DB's - S Knight, W Demps,C Woodson, D Starks

LB's - Zach Thomas, Al Wilson, Trotter, Barrow, Kassel, Foote, Cowart

DL - G Wistrom, R Seymour, K Jenkins, A Haynesworth

Overvalued

DB's - E Reed, S Taylor, R Harrison, Mike Green

LB's - J Vilma , DJ Williams, L Briggs, C June

DL - Sapp, R Mathis, J Hall,C Griffin
good list, but id like to hear more about why you think these particular guys are over/under valued.my thoughts:

Knight, like all of the older safeties (dawkins, milloy, parrish for example) is undervalued. Like old WRs, these guys just keep producing because their position is based on knowledge and experience as much as physical ability.

Demps, Ive already started a thread on, i think he's probably the single most undervalued IDP right now.

Woodson, Im not sure about because whoever is opposite him will get picked on unmercifully. I actually like whoever the CB2 (washington?) is more than woodson for fantasy.

Starks is undervalued, but the NE CB situation is crowded with gay and samuel chad scott and tyrone pool all being able to contribute.

Wilson, Thomas and Trotter are going right where they should imo. You still have to use pretty high picks to get them.

Cowart and Barrow are tough. They are studs when healthy, but the when in when healthy has been rare lately. I think Cowart is slightly undervalued and Barrow is just right, mainly because Barrow still has not completely tested his knee. He could still get cut...

Foote is undervalued for this year as the 3-4 ILB produces nice numbers, but long term, Im not sure. Wallace could displace him real soon.

Haynesworth is undervalued, but you have to think that he'll double teams all day until the DEs develop.

Wistrom and Jenkins are undervalued because they're coming off of injuries, classic shark move to pick them up.

Seymour, Im not sure about - the pats corps of Dlinemen and OLB/DE tweeners is so deep that you have to think that they would be well-served to use that depth to keep everyone well-rested as the game goes on. I think he's solid, but as a 3-4 DE, his upside is limited. classic "better real football player than fantasy" guy

Reed, I totally agree with because of the switch to the 46

Taylor, not sure. he could be undervalued if this legal trouble blows over.

Harrison is not overvalued. He's the #1 safety on my board. no reason to predict a skill dropoff or a lack of big play opportunities in that excellent defense.

Green, i agree I wonder if bobby gray or todd johnson will ever get into the mix in chicago. i think they are both threats to green's playing time if he struggles, and one may even push him in camp.

The only one of your overvalued LBs i agree with is june. he may not even have a starting gig come september. the rest are going right where they should.

Hall and Mathis are definitely overvalued - where is lance johnstone going in your draft? thats where mathis should go. how about alex brown? thats where hall should go.

Sapp is barely even draftable in most formats.

Griffin I like as one of the DTs you snag if you dont get williams or henderson - not sure why you think he is overvalued.

 
overvalued:LB---1) James Farrior - runner up defensive player of the year but pretty pedestrain fantasy statistics. I expect the same level of solid NFL play this year but only top 20 fantasy performance. Getting drafted in the top 12 in most drafts I have seen.2) DJ Williams - move to SLB, return of Ian Gold, and the addition of 3-4 wrinkles will kill his fantasy value. Being drafted top 15 LB but I don't think he will live up to those expectations.3) Lavar Arrington - He is on the downside of his career IMO. With the injuries, contract disputes, etc. he will no live up to his top 15 LB drafting position.DL---1) Jason Taylor - All world talent but is getting a little long in the tooth. Also, the impending move to the 3-4 hurts his value alot. He is a speed rusher in the 4-3 and will not be effective in either the DE or OLB position in the 3-4. Getting drafted top 5 but I think he will perform around 12-15.2) Dwight Freeney - will never be a huge run stuffer and will not put up the tackles to justify his top 5 draft position.3) Michael Strahan - injuries will catch up with him. Still solid but not top 5 as he is being drafted.DB---1) Donavan Darius - the offseason hype has caused less informed owners to vault him into their top 15. Is only a top 30 DB.2) Dunta Robinson - his top 10 ranking of last season is the rookie CB phenomina. Will still probably be top 20 with the addition of Buchanon, but many people are valuing him top 10 again..3) Robert Griffith - I have seen him vault of up the draft boards because of the previous success of Dexter Jackson and the sagging performance of Adrian Wilson. Not sure I see a top 15 finish in him, as many people are prediciting.UndervaluedLB---1) Andra Davis - A huge afterthought to many people this season. Is a SOLID playmaker and will thrive in Cleveland. top 8 performance with a 12-15 price tag.2) Colby Bockwoldt - don't laugh. He carried me to a championship last season. Is a solid player who only got better towards the end of last season. He should finish the season as a top 25 player for a 30+ price tag.3) Ed Hartwell - Also an afterthough for many. But, will be solid in the Falcons middle. Potential top 15 performer for a 20+ price tag.DL---1) Adawale Ogunleye - an afterthought due to injury. Should bounce back with doubld digit sacks and 45+ tackles. Top 10 performance for a 15-20 price tag.2) Leonard Little - He was acquitted of homicide charges last season but because his is a dirtbag people seem to forget about him. Will be a solid producer and you may be able to sneak some value out of him3) Aaron Schobel - He keeps getting better and is a top 5 player IMO. His draft position has him somewhere around 8-12 which is a full tier and a half too low.DB---1) Antoine Winfield - This guy is a top 4 DB. Mark my words. He has performed at that level for the past 3 seasons and is a very sure tackler. The 5 yard rule and Smoot on the other side keeps his tackle numbers abouve the 85 mark. I have seen him fall to 15 in some leagues.2) Dwight Smith - the safeties in NO are tackling machines and with no changes in the coaching staff I expect this to stay the same.3) Adam Archuletta - the talk of moving him to FS scared a ton of people. This is NOT going to happen. Archuletta cannot cover and Martz needs to reconsider this statement. He is an in the box SS and will have to do a ton of run support with a relatively weak defense all around. His back is of some concern but should be able to tough it out for at least one more season. Top 7 guy here with a 15+ price tag.

 
overvalued:

2) DJ Williams - move to SLB, return of Ian Gold, and the addition of 3-4 wrinkles will kill his fantasy value. Being drafted top 15 LB but I don't think he will live up to those expectations.
The word is out on Williams as SLB. His valus is dropping as we speak and he's not at overvalued as you may think.Speaking of Seymour, if he reaches hold out status - look at Jarvis Green.

May be overvalued: Akin Ayodele - LB....apparently has fallen out of favor in Jax and is in the last year of his contract.

 
Bump. Any updates?

overvalued:

3) Robert Griffith - I have seen him vault of up the draft boards because of the previous success of Dexter Jackson and the sagging performance of Adrian Wilson. Not sure I see a top 15 finish in him, as many people are prediciting.
He's now listed as the starter ahead of Ohalete? Am I going to have to keep him on my roster another year? :o
 
Our Staff IDP sleepers article has been posted here: http://www.footballguys.com/05idpsleepers.php

also, check out the IDP Offseason Summary and Rookie Reviews for more sleeper picks. We tried to avoid redundancy but there are a few players who show up in more than one article.
A few of my sleepers are also mentioned in the above article, glad to see others share my thinkingMy undervalued

Mike Rucker -both he and Kris Jenkins back healthy will help him regain status as a top fantasy DL

Shaun Ellis-Abraham gets more pub, but Ellis is productive and on the field more

Usi Omenyiora (sp)

Cornelius Griffin-had I think 60 total tackles and 6 sacks and getting better

Ian Gold-healthy and playing weakside DJ will go before him (did in my draft yesterday)but produce less

Dre Bly-was hurt some last year, but puts up good tackle #s from CB spot and if your league counts pass defended, he seems to rack them up

 
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Just thought it would be interesting to get the thoughts of some of you experts in this forum like they do for the offensive players in the Shark Pool. My thought probably don't mean much, but here goes anyway.

Undervalued

DB's - S Knight, W Demps,C Woodson, D Starks

LB's - Zach Thomas, Al Wilson, Trotter, Barrow, Kassel, Foote, Cowart

DL - G Wistrom, R Seymour, K Jenkins, A Haynesworth

Overvalued

DB's - E Reed, S Taylor, R Harrison, Mike Green

LB's - J Vilma , DJ Williams, L Briggs, C June

DL - Sapp, R Mathis, J Hall,C Griffin
I have a problem with you overvaluing rodney harrison. THe guy is just plain solid from start to finish. Also, Jonathan Vilma is a force. Sapp is DONE. He hasn't been a real factor in the last 3 or 4 years. Just my $0.02

 
Ian Gold-healthy and playing weakside DJ will go before him (did in my draft yesterday)but produce less
I agree Gold has a nice opportunity to put up some good numbers, I am sure he is off the radar in most leagues.
 

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