If DWILL leaves, is J. Stew a top 2-3 pick in 2011? (1 Viewer)

[Concept Coop]

Simple question: If DeAngelo Williams leaves Carolina in the off season, what is Jonathan Stewarts value in a 2011 startup draft?

I personally would consider him on the same tier as AP and CJ. In non-PPR, I would consider him with the top pick. Carolina has a track record of running the ball consistantly well. Stewart is a talented, young, explosive back. Assuming CJ and AP put up around 1,500/15 each, where would you rank Stewart?

I think I would go:

1. CJ

2. JStew

3. ADP

EDIT: If the variables get in the way, assume that DWill had been traded to Seattle, this off season. Where would Stewart rank today?

 

[BRONG]

I would rank JStew just ahead JChar and JFor.

 

[Bayhawks]

Simple question: If DeAngelo Williams leaves Carolina in the off season, what is Jonathan Stewarts value in a 2011 startup draft?I personally would consider him on the same tier as AP and CJ. In non-PPR, I would consider him with the top pick. Carolina has a track record of running the ball consistantly well. Stewart is a talented, young, explosive back. Assuming CJ and AP put up around 1,500/15 each, where would you rank Stewart?I think I would go:1. CJ2. JStew3. ADP

Probably not. Chris Johnson, Peterson, Jones-Drew in some order. If DeAngelo Williams went to the right team, I feel he'd be in the discussion as well (say Miami if Brown leaves and Williams retires?). Stewart might be in the discussion after that, though. Obviously this would all be dependant on their health, team situation, and performances in 2010.Basically it's hard to say, because there are so many variables (do all the RBs stay healthy, where does Williams go, how do Mathews, Best, Spiller do this year, does Rice become the goal-line guy in Bal, does Atl get Turner involved in the passing game like they said, do all these backs continue to put up the numbers we expect, what changes happen to their respective teams, etc) to say.I think you just want to hear that Stewart is a top-3 RB, but we don't know. Many people think he could be, but we don't know.

 

[Concept Coop]

Simple question: If DeAngelo Williams leaves Carolina in the off season, what is Jonathan Stewarts value in a 2011 startup draft?I personally would consider him on the same tier as AP and CJ. In non-PPR, I would consider him with the top pick. Carolina has a track record of running the ball consistantly well. Stewart is a talented, young, explosive back. Assuming CJ and AP put up around 1,500/15 each, where would you rank Stewart?I think I would go:1. CJ2. JStew3. ADP

Probably not. Chris Johnson, Peterson, Jones-Drew in some order. If DeAngelo Williams went to the right team, I feel he'd be in the discussion as well (say Miami if Brown leaves and Williams retires?). Stewart might be in the discussion after that, though. Obviously this would all be dependant on their health, team situation, and performances in 2010.Basically it's hard to say, because there are so many variables (do all the RBs stay healthy, where does Williams go, how do Mathews, Best, Spiller do this year, does Rice become the goal-line guy in Bal, does Atl get Turner involved in the passing game like they said, do all these backs continue to put up the numbers we expect, what changes happen to their respective teams, etc) to say.I think you just want to hear that Stewart is a top-3 RB, but we don't know. Many people think he could be, but we don't know.

Fair enough. To remove a few variables, assume DWill was traded to Seatle THIS off season. You are now drafting tomorrow, where do you take him?

 

[az_prof]

Yes, he would.

 

[xenith]

I do not. Considering his recurring achilles problem, yet to be proven that it is resolved, just don't think I would trust him at that level yet. Yes he's never missed time because of it, but you just can't keep doing that long term, imo. top10? Yes! top3? nope

Top5:

CJ

ADP

MJD

Gore

Turner

Next5 (not ordering, just listing):

Rice (swap w/ Turner in PPR)

DWill

JStew

Greene

Mathews

Can't forget about (may be top10 next year too):

S-Jax

Mendenhall

Pierre

Wells

Moreno

Benson

and still others I didn't list who still have shots to breakout this year (McCoy, Charles, Best)

Point is, too many variables, most of all where does DWill go, who gets injured, and how do the rookies shake out from 2010 and rookies project in 2011? Guess this is why I don't play dynasty, I'm thinking redraft leagues.

 

[Bayhawks]

Simple question: If DeAngelo Williams leaves Carolina in the off season, what is Jonathan Stewarts value in a 2011 startup draft?I personally would consider him on the same tier as AP and CJ. In non-PPR, I would consider him with the top pick. Carolina has a track record of running the ball consistantly well. Stewart is a talented, young, explosive back. Assuming CJ and AP put up around 1,500/15 each, where would you rank Stewart?I think I would go:1. CJ2. JStew3. ADP

Probably not. Chris Johnson, Peterson, Jones-Drew in some order. If DeAngelo Williams went to the right team, I feel he'd be in the discussion as well (say Miami if Brown leaves and Williams retires?). Stewart might be in the discussion after that, though. Obviously this would all be dependant on their health, team situation, and performances in 2010.Basically it's hard to say, because there are so many variables (do all the RBs stay healthy, where does Williams go, how do Mathews, Best, Spiller do this year, does Rice become the goal-line guy in Bal, does Atl get Turner involved in the passing game like they said, do all these backs continue to put up the numbers we expect, what changes happen to their respective teams, etc) to say.I think you just want to hear that Stewart is a top-3 RB, but we don't know. Many people think he could be, but we don't know.

Fair enough. To remove a few variables, assume DWill was traded to Seatle THIS off season. You are now drafting tomorrow, where do you take him?

Me, personally? I don't know where I would take him, but I'd have him ranked slightly ahead of Mathews. He would be in a great situation as far as opportunity goes, and obviously he has talent, and he's shown the ability (on a limited basis) to do well in the NFL. However, he has NEVER been healthy. He is still feeling pain, and he had surgery MONTHS ago. He has never had more than 2 consecutive games with 20+ touches in the NFL. Therefore, I'd put Johnson, Peterson, Jones-Drew, Rice, Turner, Gore, and Williams ahead of him. I'd have Stewart ranked about the same as Jackson, with Mathews, Grant, and Mendenhall behind them.Could Stewart do better than some of the RBs I ranked ahead of him? Sure, but until he has proven it, on a consistent basis, like they have, I'd have them ranked higher.

 

[Tigerbot Hesh]

I can't imagine the Panthers letting Williams walk and giving a guy who has been chronically hurt his whole pro career the full load. I think they'd either draft a RB or sign a free-agent to continue to share time with Stewart. I could see Stewart picking up a bigger workload by default if the backup guy struggled, but I don't see the Panthers just running Stewart full-time if they have a choice not to.

If the new labor agreement keeps the franchise tag, I'd expect the Panthers to franchise Williams once or twice and keep the Williams-Stewart combo going for a few more years.

 

[Warrior]

I can't imagine the Panthers letting Williams walk and giving a guy who has been chronically hurt his whole pro career the full load. I think they'd either draft a RB or sign a free-agent to continue to share time with Stewart. I could see Stewart picking up a bigger workload by default if the backup guy struggled, but I don't see the Panthers just running Stewart full-time if they have a choice not to.

If the new labor agreement keeps the franchise tag, I'd expect the Panthers to franchise Williams once or twice and keep the Williams-Stewart combo going for a few more years.

You're joking, right? He's played 32 games over two seasons...hasn't missed a single game and he's been "chronically hurt his whole pro career"?

 

[Alfredo Garcia]

I know he's not gotten a full load for any length of time, but its important to remember that Stewart has **never** missed a game due to "chronic injuries"

 

[Tigerbot Hesh]

I can't imagine the Panthers letting Williams walk and giving a guy who has been chronically hurt his whole pro career the full load. I think they'd either draft a RB or sign a free-agent to continue to share time with Stewart. I could see Stewart picking up a bigger workload by default if the backup guy struggled, but I don't see the Panthers just running Stewart full-time if they have a choice not to.

If the new labor agreement keeps the franchise tag, I'd expect the Panthers to franchise Williams once or twice and keep the Williams-Stewart combo going for a few more years.

You're joking, right? He's played 32 games over two seasons...hasn't missed a single game and he's been "chronically hurt his whole pro career"?

I know he hasn't missed a game, but he's never been 100% healthy, either. Hence, he's been hurt his whole career. Maybe 'chronically' makes it sound like he has some kind of bone-on-bone knee problem, so maybe that's a poor choice of words there. But I would hate to count on a guy who has had toe/foot problems the two years he has been in the league as my A-1, bell cow, do-everything running back.

 

[Holy Schneikes]

I'd certainly consider him top 5. I don't know that I'd be willing to go top 2 or 3 quite yet based on what I know right now (next year at this time could be very different).

I'm a dynasty owner if it matters.

 

[sgtrobo]

this whole "never missed a game"

guys, do you pay attention to the injury reports enough? Stew is nicked up all the time. Love his talent, love his game, but as of yet, he hasn't maintained anything resembling complete health. I am VERY convinced that is why DWill hasn't gone anywhere just yet.

It's obvious that Stewie is a top RB when healthy, but his health is the true question.

 

[DropKick]

this whole "never missed a game"guys, do you pay attention to the injury reports enough? Stew is nicked up all the time. Love his talent, love his game, but as of yet, he hasn't maintained anything resembling complete health. I am VERY convinced that is why DWill hasn't gone anywhere just yet. It's obvious that Stewie is a top RB when healthy, but his health is the true question.

Never missed a game >>>>>> he was on the injury report.Also, don't think Stewart's physical status is the reason DeAngelo is a Panther.

 

[sgtrobo]

i think it helps make the decision a bit tougher.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

I would rank JStew just ahead JChar and JFor.

I knew you would be the 1st poster

 

[PlasmaDogPlasma]

Stewart's had to come out of games for good because of injury on multiple occasions. That's why Williams had some of his huge games down the stretch two years ago.

 

[Don't Noonan]

No question Stewart is a top 5 pick in that scenario. Top 3 pick very likely.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

Stewart's had to come out of games for good because of injury on multiple occasions. That's why Williams had some of his huge games down the stretch two years ago.

Ok, let's look at Carolina's games down the stretch 2 years ago.Week 14: - Deangelo has 19 carries for 186 yds and 2 TDs- Stewart has 15 carries for 115 yds and 2 TDsWeek 15: - Deangelo has 12 carries for 88 yds and 1 TD- Stewart has 16 carries for 52 yds and 1 TDWeek 16: - Deangelo has 24 carries for 108 yds and 4 TDs- Stewart has 9 carries for 29 yds and 0 TDsWeek 17: - Deangelo has 25 carries for 178 yds and 0 TDs- Stewart has 17 carries for 56 yds and 1 TDFinal 4 weeks total:- Deangelo has 80 carries for 560 yds and 7 TDs- Stewart has 57 carries for 252 yds and 4 TDsYep, it looks like Stewart was barely used down the stretch 2 years ago. That must be why Deangelo carried the ball a whopping 20 times per game.(btw - yes, I recognize that Deangelo was a stud down the stretch. But that wasn't the point of the previous post)

 

[sgtrobo]

Notice that DWill was averaging almost 7 YPC during that strength and Stew was barely averaging 4? Do you really think he's twice as talented?

course not

Stewie was knicked up. He wasn't "out", he was "knicked up"

I think that's all we're trying to get people to see. Stewie has had problems with his foot area pretty much chronically since he was first drafted.

Not saying he's doomed, just saying that he has been 'knicked up'. he toughs it out and a lot of the time it doesn't affect his production.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

Notice that DWill was averaging almost 7 YPC during that strength and Stew was barely averaging 4? Do you really think he's twice as talented?course notStewie was knicked up. He wasn't "out", he was "knicked up"I think that's all we're trying to get people to see. Stewie has had problems with his foot area pretty much chronically since he was first drafted. Not saying he's doomed, just saying that he has been 'knicked up'. he toughs it out and a lot of the time it doesn't affect his production.

Go back again and read Plasmadog's post, then tell me you two honestly meant the same things. He was very specific in his comment.Edit to add: Stewart wasn't "barely averaging 4". He averaged 4.4 yds per carry during that stretch. But nice attempt at distorting the stats.

 

[sgtrobo]

i wasn't trying to distort anything. I did the math rapidly in my head. I'll be sure to use a calculator from now on.

So let me get out my calculator....

With 23 extra carries during that stretch, DWill got an extra 308 yards. Does that represent their talent differential to you? It doesn't to me

Perhaps I'm misunderstanding you?

Regardless, Stewie has been knicked up on several occasions in his career. No, it doesn't keep him out of games (he's a gutsy dude) but it does limit his production. That's all I was trying to say, really.

 

[Bayhawks]

Stewart's had to come out of games for good because of injury on multiple occasions. That's why Williams had some of his huge games down the stretch two years ago.

Ok, let's look at Carolina's games down the stretch 2 years ago.Week 14:

- Deangelo has 19 carries for 186 yds and 2 TDs

- Stewart has 15 carries for 115 yds and 2 TDs

Week 15:

- Deangelo has 12 carries for 88 yds and 1 TD

- Stewart has 16 carries for 52 yds and 1 TD

Week 16:

- Deangelo has 24 carries for 108 yds and 4 TDs

- Stewart has 9 carries for 29 yds and 0 TDs

Week 17:

- Deangelo has 25 carries for 178 yds and 0 TDs

- Stewart has 17 carries for 56 yds and 1 TD

Final 4 weeks total:

- Deangelo has 80 carries for 560 yds and 7 TDs

- Stewart has 57 carries for 252 yds and 4 TDs

Yep, it looks like Stewart was barely used down the stretch 2 years ago. That must be why Deangelo carried the ball a whopping 20 times per game.

(btw - yes, I recognize that Deangelo was a stud down the stretch. But that wasn't the point of the previous post)

I'm not sure why we are limiting DeAngelo's stud performance to the last 4 games. The only reason I can think of is because Stewart's "stud" performance barely lasted 4 games last year, so Stewart backers are locked into that amount of games. But Williams' "studly" stretch performance wasn't a mere 4 games, it was the last nine games. During that period, DeAngelo averaged 19 carries/game for 1101 yards (122/game @ 6.5 YPC). During that 9-week span, in the games against GB AND the Giants, Stewart played in the games, but was removed because of injuries. There may have been more games, or maybe not. But I remember those 2 specifically, because Williams scored 4 TDs in both games, and the announcers during the games (& posters on these forums) both made note of the fact that Stewart was out, and that was why Williams was getting EVERY SINGLE goal-line carry.

Furthermore, I will ask this question again, because NOT ONE SINGLE STEWART SUPPORTER HAS DARED TO TRY TO ANSWER IT:

Williams, over NINE GAMES amassed 122 yards/game, with a 6.5 YPC and scored FIFTEEN TDs, yet John Fox did not increase his % of the RB carries the next season, so why should we expect Fox to increase Stewart's % of the carries with a less impressive THREE GAME stretch?

 

[Novice2]

Simple question: If DeAngelo Williams leaves Carolina in the off season, what is Jonathan Stewarts value in a 2011 startup draft?I personally would consider him on the same tier as AP and CJ. In non-PPR, I would consider him with the top pick. Carolina has a track record of running the ball consistantly well. Stewart is a talented, young, explosive back. Assuming CJ and AP put up around 1,500/15 each, where would you rank Stewart?I think I would go:1. CJSpiller2. JStew3. ADPEDIT: If the variables get in the way, assume that DWill had been traded to Seattle, this off season. Where would Stewart rank today?

Fixed

 

[DropKick]

i wasn't trying to distort anything. I did the math rapidly in my head. I'll be sure to use a calculator from now on.So let me get out my calculator....With 23 extra carries during that stretch, DWill got an extra 308 yards. Does that represent their talent differential to you? It doesn't to mePerhaps I'm misunderstanding you? Regardless, Stewie has been knicked up on several occasions in his career. No, it doesn't keep him out of games (he's a gutsy dude) but it does limit his production. That's all I was trying to say, really.

So, as a rookie, when the starting RB was on fire, Stewart had 57 carries for 252 yds and 4 TDs or a pace for a 228 carry, 1008 yard, 16 TD season?And this is bad?ETA: Many RBs leave games. Over the course of 2 seasons, maybe they ALL do?Stewart has been limited in preseason, etc. his whole career. This is how teams treat proven veterans. Maybe Carolina is comfortable with what they have? In any event, call me when he really misses time.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

Stewart's had to come out of games for good because of injury on multiple occasions. That's why Williams had some of his huge games down the stretch two years ago.

Ok, let's look at Carolina's games down the stretch 2 years ago.Week 14:

- Deangelo has 19 carries for 186 yds and 2 TDs

- Stewart has 15 carries for 115 yds and 2 TDs

Week 15:

- Deangelo has 12 carries for 88 yds and 1 TD

- Stewart has 16 carries for 52 yds and 1 TD

Week 16:

- Deangelo has 24 carries for 108 yds and 4 TDs

- Stewart has 9 carries for 29 yds and 0 TDs

Week 17:

- Deangelo has 25 carries for 178 yds and 0 TDs

- Stewart has 17 carries for 56 yds and 1 TD

Final 4 weeks total:

- Deangelo has 80 carries for 560 yds and 7 TDs

- Stewart has 57 carries for 252 yds and 4 TDs

Yep, it looks like Stewart was barely used down the stretch 2 years ago. That must be why Deangelo carried the ball a whopping 20 times per game.

(btw - yes, I recognize that Deangelo was a stud down the stretch. But that wasn't the point of the previous post)

I'm not sure why we are limiting DeAngelo's stud performance to the last 4 games. The only reason I can think of is because Stewart's "stud" performance barely lasted 4 games last year, so Stewart backers are locked into that amount of games. But Williams' "studly" stretch performance wasn't a mere 4 games, it was the last nine games. During that period, DeAngelo averaged 19 carries/game for 1101 yards (122/game @ 6.5 YPC). During that 9-week span, in the games against GB AND the Giants, Stewart played in the games, but was removed because of injuries. There may have been more games, or maybe not. But I remember those 2 specifically, because Williams scored 4 TDs in both games, and the announcers during the games (& these forums) both made note of the fact that Stewart was out, and that was why Williams was getting EVERY SINGLE goal-line carry.

Furthermore, I will ask this question again, because NOT ONE SINGLE STEWART SUPPORTER HAS DARED TO TRY TO ANSWER IT:

Williams, over NINE GAMES amassed 122 yards/game, with a 6.5 YPC and scored FIFTEEN TDs, yet John Fox did not increase his % of the RB carries the next season, why should we expect him to increase Stewart's % of the carries with a less impressive THREE GAME stretch?

Um.....look at the post I quoted. He specifically referred to DWill having big games "down the stretch." I take that to mean in the final few weeks of the season - you know, the way most people would describe the end of the season as "down the stretch."That was the rationale. Period. Directly responding to a poster's comment.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

i wasn't trying to distort anything. I did the math rapidly in my head. I'll be sure to use a calculator from now on.

So let me get out my calculator....

With 23 extra carries during that stretch, DWill got an extra 308 yards. Does that represent their talent differential to you? It doesn't to me

Perhaps I'm misunderstanding you?

Regardless, Stewie has been knicked up on several occasions in his career. No, it doesn't keep him out of games (he's a gutsy dude) but it does limit his production. That's all I was trying to say, really.

I didn't comment on anything other than your inability to do basic math.

 

[DropKick]

Furthermore, I will ask this question again, because NOT ONE SINGLE STEWART SUPPORTER HAS DARED TO TRY TO ANSWER IT:

Williams, over NINE GAMES amassed 122 yards/game, with a 6.5 YPC and scored FIFTEEN TDs, yet John Fox did not increase his % of the RB carries the next season, so why should we expect Fox to increase Stewart's % of the carries with a less impressive THREE GAME stretch?

It's not that hard a question. With two very good backs he may have a rough distribution in mind that he considers "ideal". That may have little to no correlation to the distribution used in the prior year. You don't need to correlate the percentage change with the previous season's performance.

 

[sgtrobo]

I didn't comment on anything other than your inability to do basic math.

no, you were nitpicking while completely avoiding what I asked, but it doesn't matter. Stewie has gotten nicked up and it affected his production. Believe or don't believe.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

I didn't comment on anything other than your inability to do basic math.

no, you were nitpicking while completely avoiding what I asked, but it doesn't matter. Stewie has gotten nicked up and it affected his production. Believe or don't believe.

I've never disputed that. You are creating fictitious comments to spar against. Priceless. Go back and read the trail of posts. Back to reality:

- Stewart has been injured the past 2 years. People disputing that - or ignoring it - are crazy.

- That said, if Deangelo left Carolina, Stewart would be very close to a top-5 dynasty pick.

- It's difficult to rank him ahead of CJ, AP, or MJD, so I fail to see how he is a surefire top-3 pick

 

[sgtrobo]

so...we are in 100% agreement then.

*scratches head*

so apparently I WAS misunderstanding you.

 

[Bayhawks]

Stewart's had to come out of games for good because of injury on multiple occasions. That's why Williams had some of his huge games down the stretch two years ago.

Ok, let's look at Carolina's games down the stretch 2 years ago.Week 14:

- Deangelo has 19 carries for 186 yds and 2 TDs

- Stewart has 15 carries for 115 yds and 2 TDs

Week 15:

- Deangelo has 12 carries for 88 yds and 1 TD

- Stewart has 16 carries for 52 yds and 1 TD

Week 16:

- Deangelo has 24 carries for 108 yds and 4 TDs

- Stewart has 9 carries for 29 yds and 0 TDs

Week 17:

- Deangelo has 25 carries for 178 yds and 0 TDs

- Stewart has 17 carries for 56 yds and 1 TD

Final 4 weeks total:

- Deangelo has 80 carries for 560 yds and 7 TDs

- Stewart has 57 carries for 252 yds and 4 TDs

Yep, it looks like Stewart was barely used down the stretch 2 years ago. That must be why Deangelo carried the ball a whopping 20 times per game.

(btw - yes, I recognize that Deangelo was a stud down the stretch. But that wasn't the point of the previous post)

I'm not sure why we are limiting DeAngelo's stud performance to the last 4 games. The only reason I can think of is because Stewart's "stud" performance barely lasted 4 games last year, so Stewart backers are locked into that amount of games. But Williams' "studly" stretch performance wasn't a mere 4 games, it was the last nine games. During that period, DeAngelo averaged 19 carries/game for 1101 yards (122/game @ 6.5 YPC). During that 9-week span, in the games against GB AND the Giants, Stewart played in the games, but was removed because of injuries. There may have been more games, or maybe not. But I remember those 2 specifically, because Williams scored 4 TDs in both games, and the announcers during the games (& these forums) both made note of the fact that Stewart was out, and that was why Williams was getting EVERY SINGLE goal-line carry.

Furthermore, I will ask this question again, because NOT ONE SINGLE STEWART SUPPORTER HAS DARED TO TRY TO ANSWER IT:

Williams, over NINE GAMES amassed 122 yards/game, with a 6.5 YPC and scored FIFTEEN TDs, yet John Fox did not increase his % of the RB carries the next season, why should we expect him to increase Stewart's % of the carries with a less impressive THREE GAME stretch?

Um.....look at the post I quoted. He specifically referred to DWill having big games "down the stretch." I take that to mean in the final few weeks of the season - you know, the way most people would describe the end of the season as "down the stretch."That was the rationale. Period. Directly responding to a poster's comment.

Um.....look at the post you quoted. He specifically referred to Stewart having to come out of games because of injury. But you didn't really directly respond to his comment. You showed stats, but no injury information. You showed carries, but you didn't show when they occurred, thus proving or disproving his statement. But, using your rationale, the "stretch" only applies to the last 4 games. That leaves us with one game that I know Stewart wasn't able to finish: week 16 against Carolina. That's 25% of the games that you selectively chose to use. Does a RB who can't finish 25% of his games qualify as "nicked up?" Or maybe, you selectively choose to use the last 5 games as the "stretch." That includes week 13, which is the second game that I know Stewart couldn't finish. That makes the percentage 40%. Does a RB who can't finish 40% of his games count as "nicked up?"

Bottom line is this: Stewart has spent over 75% of his NFL career on the injury report. He has NEVER been able to fully participate in off-season activities, there are AT LEAST 2 games from his rookie season where he was unable to finish the game, HE HAS NEVER HAD MORE THAN 2 CONSECUTIVE GAMES OF 20+ CARRIES, and he is still feeling pain from the achilles injury he dealt with all last year. To me (and any sane person), that would constitute someone who has dealt with nagging injuries.

Does that sound like a RB that an NFL team could feel 100% comfortable as their lead RB?

 

[Bayhawks]

Furthermore, I will ask this question again, because NOT ONE SINGLE STEWART SUPPORTER HAS DARED TO TRY TO ANSWER IT:

Williams, over NINE GAMES amassed 122 yards/game, with a 6.5 YPC and scored FIFTEEN TDs, yet John Fox did not increase his % of the RB carries the next season, so why should we expect Fox to increase Stewart's % of the carries with a less impressive THREE GAME stretch?

It's not that hard a question. With two very good backs he may have a rough distribution in mind that he considers "ideal". That may have little to no correlation to the distribution used in the prior year. You don't need to correlate the percentage change with the previous season's performance.

If it's not that hard, why didn't you answer it? I enlarged it for you, in case that helps.

 

[Carolina Hustler]

I didn't comment on anything other than your inability to do basic math.

no, you were nitpicking while completely avoiding what I asked, but it doesn't matter. Stewie has gotten nicked up and it affected his production. Believe or don't believe.

I've never disputed that. You are creating fictitious comments to spar against. Priceless. Go back and read the trail of posts. Back to reality:

- Stewart has been injured the past 2 years. People disputing that - or ignoring it - are crazy.

- That said, if Deangelo left Carolina, Stewart would be very close to a top-5 dynasty pick.

- It's difficult to rank him ahead of CJ, AP, or MJD, so I fail to see how he is a surefire top-3 pick

.... Strawman?.. lol

 

[Alex P Keaton]

I didn't comment on anything other than your inability to do basic math.

no, you were nitpicking while completely avoiding what I asked, but it doesn't matter. Stewie has gotten nicked up and it affected his production. Believe or don't believe.

I've never disputed that. You are creating fictitious comments to spar against. Priceless. Go back and read the trail of posts. Back to reality:

- Stewart has been injured the past 2 years. People disputing that - or ignoring it - are crazy.

- That said, if Deangelo left Carolina, Stewart would be very close to a top-5 dynasty pick.

- It's difficult to rank him ahead of CJ, AP, or MJD, so I fail to see how he is a surefire top-3 pick

.... Strawman?.. lol

I'm telling you dude, this #### happens constantly. At this point, I just chalk it up to poor reading comprehension.

 

[Carolina Hustler]

Without some major change in production from 09 to 10... I'd expect if Stewart became the lone back in 2010, for him to go top 5-6... If he can do some big damage in 09, then maybe better.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

Um.....look at the post you quoted. He specifically referred to Stewart having to come out of games because of injury. But you didn't really directly respond to his comment. You showed stats, but no injury information. You showed carries, but you didn't show when they occurred, thus proving or disproving his statement. But, using your rationale, the "stretch" only applies to the last 4 games. That leaves us with one game that I know Stewart wasn't able to finish: week 16 against Carolina. That's 25% of the games that you selectively chose to use. Does a RB who can't finish 25% of his games qualify as "nicked up?" Or maybe, you selectively choose to use the last 5 games as the "stretch." That includes week 13, which is the second game that I know Stewart couldn't finish. That makes the percentage 40%. Does a RB who can't finish 40% of his games count as "nicked up?"Bottom line is this: Stewart has spent over 75% of his NFL career on the injury report. He has NEVER been able to fully participate in off-season activities, there are AT LEAST 2 games from his rookie season where he was unable to finish the game, HE HAS NEVER HAD MORE THAN 2 CONSECUTIVE GAMES OF 20+ CARRIES, and he is still feeling pain from the achilles injury he dealt with all last year. To me (and any sane person), that would constitute someone who has dealt with nagging injuries.Does that sound like a RB that an NFL team could feel 100% comfortable as their lead RB?

Down the stretch. I take that to mean "down the stretch at the end of the season." And yeah, I selectively consider the final 25% of games "the stretch run." And yes, during those final 4 games, it appears Stewart received plenty of carries.If the original poster meant something more specific, perhaps he should do a better job of typing what he actually means.BTW - I really don't think we disagree on Stewart. Where we disagree is that you're distorting the meaning of someone else's post (to which I happened to reply directly).

 

[Bayhawks]

Down the stretch. I take that to mean "down the stretch at the end of the season." And yeah, I selectively consider the final 25% of games "the stretch run." And yes, during those final 4 games, it appears Stewart received plenty of carries.

If the original poster meant something more specific, perhaps he should do a better job of typing what he actually means.

BTW - I really don't think we disagree on Stewart. Where we disagree is that you're distorting the meaning of someone else's post (to which I happened to reply directly).

Here's his post:

Stewart's had to come out of games for good because of injury on multiple occasions. That's why Williams had some of his huge games down the stretch two years ago.

Stewart's had to come of games for good because of injury. How could he have done "a better job of typing" that? You showed stats for Stewart in your selective 4 games. Guess what? When a guy plays in a game, and the "has to come out of games for good because of injury," he can still put up stats. And of the 4 games you selectively chose, one of them was a game Stewart had to come out of for good, leading to Williams having the opportunity to put up 4 TDs.So tell me, how didn't he type exactly what he meant, and how did your selective game stats show he was wrong?

As I've shown, I didn't distort anything, you did.

 

[thatguy]

Honestly, if I knew that Williams would be gone next season and the job was entirely Stewart's, (they'd obviously give another back probably 5-10 carries per game), and was confident he would get 325+ touches per season, I'd strongly consider taking him first overall. The only backs I might take ahead of him would be Chris Johnson and Adrian Peterson. I would definitely take him ahead of Rice and MJD. He really is that good IMO. Remember, the guy is incredibly young still, too. Two years younger than AP and MJD, 1.5 years younger than CJ. For RBs, a position where you can reasonably expect to get at most 6-8 years of solid production, those extra 2 years are huge.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

Down the stretch. I take that to mean "down the stretch at the end of the season." And yeah, I selectively consider the final 25% of games "the stretch run." And yes, during those final 4 games, it appears Stewart received plenty of carries.

If the original poster meant something more specific, perhaps he should do a better job of typing what he actually means.

BTW - I really don't think we disagree on Stewart. Where we disagree is that you're distorting the meaning of someone else's post (to which I happened to reply directly).

Here's his post:

Stewart's had to come out of games for good because of injury on multiple occasions. That's why Williams had some of his huge games down the stretch two years ago.

Stewart's had to come of games for good because of injury. How could he have done "a better job of typing" that? You showed stats for Stewart in your selective 4 games. Guess what? When a guy plays in a game, and the "has to come out of games for good because of injury," he can still put up stats. And of the 4 games you selectively chose, one of them was a game Stewart had to come out of for good, leading to Williams having the opportunity to put up 4 TDs.So tell me, how didn't he type exactly what he meant, and how did your selective game stats show he was wrong?

As I've shown, I didn't distort anything, you did.

You win. "down the stretch" doesn't mean the end of the season.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

I'm not going to beat the dead horse about the injury reports and nicked up and all that. There is plenty of that in other threads. My comments here are assuming Stewart's offseason surgery corrected the problem long-term, which I believe is true. If others question it that's fine, but I'm not going to go back and forth on that in this thread. The original poster also asked us to assume that Williams is gone next year, so no point going back and forth on that either.

Basically, I believe if Stewart gets 325 carries (which he would with no D Will), then I would project at least 1500 total yards/15 TDs and he is at least in the conversation for the top 2 or 3 RBs. I think he is a clear top 5 stud waiting to happen should he get 300+ carries. I, for one, would give serious consideration to taking him first overall. Of course, this is without benefit of seeing this year play out. Remember we are predicting next year without seeing this one.

 

[Bayhawks]

You win. "down the stretch" doesn't mean the end of the season.

Dude, that's not my point. For someone who was ragging on another poster about poor reading comprehension, you don't seem very good at it.You said "Where we disagree is that you're distorting the meaning of someone else's post (to which I happened to reply directly)."

The post to which you were referring to was by PlasmaDogPlasma. Here's his post:

Stewart's had to come out of games for good because of injury on multiple occasions. That's why Williams had some of his huge games down the stretch two years ago.

He posted that Stewart had to come out of games for good because of injury, and that is partially responsible for his huge games down the stretch in 2008.You responded with:

Ok, let's look at Carolina's games down the stretch 2 years ago.

Week 14:

- Deangelo has 19 carries for 186 yds and 2 TDs

- Stewart has 15 carries for 115 yds and 2 TDs

Week 15:

- Deangelo has 12 carries for 88 yds and 1 TD

- Stewart has 16 carries for 52 yds and 1 TD

Week 16:

- Deangelo has 24 carries for 108 yds and 4 TDs

- Stewart has 9 carries for 29 yds and 0 TDs

Week 17:

- Deangelo has 25 carries for 178 yds and 0 TDs

- Stewart has 17 carries for 56 yds and 1 TD

Final 4 weeks total:

- Deangelo has 80 carries for 560 yds and 7 TDs

- Stewart has 57 carries for 252 yds and 4 TDs

Yep, it looks like Stewart was barely used down the stretch 2 years ago. That must be why Deangelo carried the ball a whopping 20 times per game.

(btw - yes, I recognize that Deangelo was a stud down the stretch. But that wasn't the point of the previous post)

Where in there did you address PlasmaDogPlasma's point that Stewart HAD TO COME OUT OF GAMES? You didn't, but you did throw in "Yep, it looks like Stewart was barely used down the stretch 2 years ago."So either you couldn't comprehend what you were reading in his post (Stewart had to COME OUT OF GAMES, not that he wasn't used), or you were distorting what he wrote to make your point (sarcasticly saying "Stewart was barely used.")

Either way, I responded to YOUR POST, which compared Stewart's and Williams' stats down the stretch in 2008, which you chose to mean the last 4 games.

So I wasn't distorting what you posted, and when you pointed out that you (were trying) to address a point in another poster's post, I discussed that point. My take is that "down the stretch" doesn't have to mean just 4 games, and that I know, for a fact, that 2 of the last 5 games in 2008, Jonathan Stewart started the games, but couldn't finish, thereby making PlasmaDogPlasma's point.

End hijack/

 

[Bayhawks]

I'm not going to beat the dead horse about the injury reports and nicked up and all that. There is plenty of that in other threads. My comments here are assuming Stewart's offseason surgery corrected the problem long-term, which I believe is true. If others question it that's fine, but I'm not going to go back and forth on that in this thread. The original poster also asked us to assume that Williams is gone next year, so no point going back and forth on that either.

Basically, I believe if Stewart gets 325 carries (which he would with no D Will), then I would project at least 1500 total yards/15 TDs and he is at least in the conversation for the top 2 or 3 RBs. I think he is a clear top 5 stud waiting to happen should he get 300+ carries. I, for one, would give serious consideration to taking him first overall. Of course, this is without benefit of seeing this year play out. Remember we are predicting next year without seeing this one.

Anthony, is this belief based on Fox no longer being the HC in Carolina? Because otherwise, it doesn't seem to be based in much fact or reality.Fox has NEVER given 1 RB 325 carries. He has always had a 2nd RB taking enough carries that RB1 doesn't get that heavy of a workload. If Williams leaves, (and Fox is still there), you'd have to expect that to continue. Goodson would get enough carries to keep Stewart under 325 (probably under 300). If not Goodson, Sutton. If not Sutton, a rookie or FA. I have no doubts that Stewart would be the lead dog in that RBBC, but it would still be enough of a split to keep him under that 325 number you post.

I believe Stewart has the talent to put up those kind of numbers. I'm not sure he would be able to stay healthy enough to hit them. I'm sure that (if Fox is still in Carolina) he is VERY UNLIKELY to ever get that opportunity.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

I'm not going to beat the dead horse about the injury reports and nicked up and all that. There is plenty of that in other threads. My comments here are assuming Stewart's offseason surgery corrected the problem long-term, which I believe is true. If others question it that's fine, but I'm not going to go back and forth on that in this thread. The original poster also asked us to assume that Williams is gone next year, so no point going back and forth on that either.

Basically, I believe if Stewart gets 325 carries (which he would with no D Will), then I would project at least 1500 total yards/15 TDs and he is at least in the conversation for the top 2 or 3 RBs. I think he is a clear top 5 stud waiting to happen should he get 300+ carries. I, for one, would give serious consideration to taking him first overall. Of course, this is without benefit of seeing this year play out. Remember we are predicting next year without seeing this one.

Anthony, is this belief based on Fox no longer being the HC in Carolina? Because otherwise, it doesn't seem to be based in much fact or reality.Fox has NEVER given 1 RB 325 carries. He has always had a 2nd RB taking enough carries that RB1 doesn't get that heavy of a workload. If Williams leaves, (and Fox is still there), you'd have to expect that to continue. Goodson would get enough carries to keep Stewart under 325 (probably under 300). If not Goodson, Sutton. If not Sutton, a rookie or FA. I have no doubts that Stewart would be the lead dog in that RBBC, but it would still be enough of a split to keep him under that 325 number you post.

I believe Stewart has the talent to put up those kind of numbers. I'm not sure he would be able to stay healthy enough to hit them. I'm sure that (if Fox is still in Carolina) he is VERY UNLIKELY to ever get that opportunity.

Largely agree with you on both points: 1) Fox typically doesn't give RB1 anywhere near 325 carries in a season, 2) until Stewart stays healthy in a timeshare, it's tough to believe that he can do it as the lead dog.Quick nit to pick: In 2004, John Fox gave Stephen Davis 318 carries in 14 games. (my memory is foggy on why Davis missed 2 games) In any event, 318 carries in 14 games is a) very close to 325, b) on a per game basis is more than 325 carries in 16 games. Again, I largely agree with your broader point.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

I'm not going to beat the dead horse about the injury reports and nicked up and all that. There is plenty of that in other threads. My comments here are assuming Stewart's offseason surgery corrected the problem long-term, which I believe is true. If others question it that's fine, but I'm not going to go back and forth on that in this thread. The original poster also asked us to assume that Williams is gone next year, so no point going back and forth on that either.

Basically, I believe if Stewart gets 325 carries (which he would with no D Will), then I would project at least 1500 total yards/15 TDs and he is at least in the conversation for the top 2 or 3 RBs. I think he is a clear top 5 stud waiting to happen should he get 300+ carries. I, for one, would give serious consideration to taking him first overall. Of course, this is without benefit of seeing this year play out. Remember we are predicting next year without seeing this one.

Anthony, is this belief based on Fox no longer being the HC in Carolina? Because otherwise, it doesn't seem to be based in much fact or reality.Fox has NEVER given 1 RB 325 carries. He has always had a 2nd RB taking enough carries that RB1 doesn't get that heavy of a workload. If Williams leaves, (and Fox is still there), you'd have to expect that to continue. Goodson would get enough carries to keep Stewart under 325 (probably under 300). If not Goodson, Sutton. If not Sutton, a rookie or FA. I have no doubts that Stewart would be the lead dog in that RBBC, but it would still be enough of a split to keep him under that 325 number you post.

I believe Stewart has the talent to put up those kind of numbers. I'm not sure he would be able to stay healthy enough to hit them. I'm sure that (if Fox is still in Carolina) he is VERY UNLIKELY to ever get that opportunity.

Stephen Davis had 318 in 14 games in 2003. Lamar Smith had 210 in 11 games in 2002 (pace for 305). There are two examples where he let a back carry the ball 20 times per game or close to it. Stephen Davis is the only RB they have had that was both big and talented. Davis also averaged 18 carries per game in the first 10 games in 2005 despite averaging 3.1 yards per carry. A higher YPC would have almost assuredly gotten him 300+ that year as well. Since then, he has never had a RB like Stewart, meaning a big back (with lots of talent) that wears out a defense as the game goes along. Maybe if he had, the carries would have been different. So yes, I do believe it at this time. However, assuming Williams leaves, it is impossible to really know this without knowing what other RBs are on the roster so all of us are guessing at this point. And this happens to be my guess and the past history has too many variables to just use it as the sole guide. In my opinion, the circumstances have been a major factor in the carry distribution if not the biggest. My belief is that Fox would give 300 carries to a big bruising talented RB like Stewart if Williams was gone. He did it with Davis and close to it with Lamar Smith. Like I said though...nobody knows for sure, but this is my opinion on the matter and I'll leave it at that.