If I could draft one WR first as of today... (1 Viewer)

[timschochet]

Steve Smith has been great the first 2 weeks (not last week) but Delhomme getting hurt downgrades him. Randy Moss has been phenomenal but you know Brady's going to spread the ball around more. Both Ocho Cinco and Harrison have to split receptions with a nearly as good WR on the other side.

That leaves T.O. He is clearly the main man in Dallas; so long as he stays healthy I believe he will be the most consistent performer at this position the rest of the way. Anyone disagree?

 

[Keys Myaths]

Yes.

I'll take the guy who's second in points scored to Moss.

TO? Sixth.

 

[Steelnation]

Moss all day

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Randy Moss or Chad Johnson...but I think TO will continue to score as the year progresses...not sure if CJ will see a slight decrease when Henry returns.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

Steve Smith has been great the first 2 weeks (not last week) but Delhomme getting hurt downgrades him. Randy Moss has been phenomenal but you know Brady's going to spread the ball around more. Both Ocho Cinco and Harrison have to split receptions with a nearly as good WR on the other side. That leaves T.O. He is clearly the main man in Dallas; so long as he stays healthy I believe he will be the most consistent performer at this position the rest of the way. Anyone disagree?

Right now, Roy Williams is looking awfully good...what with their 54/153 runass ratio and 30th ranked defense.

 

[Wally Cleaver]

I agree completely... Although there may be a case to be made for Chad Johnson the way that Cincy is slinging it this year... However, the Dallas offense has just enough weapons to keep defenses honest and Romo does a great job of buying that extra second to let TO break open. I am targetting him in 2 leagues and there is not a receiver in the league I would trade straight up for him... Moss looks great however later in the year when the weather gets cold I dont think Brady will be chucking it the way he is now... New England can win in so many ways...

Owens will probably not have any 170 and 3td games, but he will also not have any 10 yard games either.

 

[butcher boy]

I'd take Owens over Moss* too. New England* has certainly dominated early on, but I expect them to come back to earth, and I think this will hurt Moss'* consistency. I take Steve Smith after these two though.

 

[BigTex]

Roy in the 2nd, TO in the 3rd = outstanding value and I'll take it any day of the week and twice on Sundays.

 

[Bossman]

Spoken like a true TO owner.

 

[Resident A]

I agree 100% on TO. TO will easily be the most consistent, and he is the best bet to lead the league in TDs. TO plays indoors & has very few games which weather will be a factor. I really think TO will have close to 20 TDs.

Steve Smith is great too, but he is very streaky. He'll get 10 for 190 & 2 long TDs one game, and follow it up w/ a 3 for 29 game.

Chad is ceding a big chunk of production w/ Housh. He is also streaky.

ROY will have big games too, but has 3 other WRs to compete with for balls.

Moss has to deal w/ Brady spreading it around, and also bad weather for half the season.

 

[Keys Myaths]

I agree 100% on TO. TO will easily be the most consistent, and he is the best bet to lead the league in TDs. TO plays indoors & has very few games which weather will be a factor. I really think TO will have close to 20 TDs. Steve Smith is great too, but he is very streaky. He'll get 10 for 190 & 2 long TDs one game, and follow it up w/ a 3 for 29 game.Chad is ceding a big chunk of production w/ Housh. He is also streaky.ROY will have big games too, but has 3 other WRs to compete with for balls.Moss has to deal w/ Brady spreading it around, and also bad weather for half the season.

We've done the numbers over and over again in here. There's no way to predict "consistency" for WRs.

 

[Ghost Rider]

Moss has outscored Owens at this point, and New England is more likely to continue scoring at their current pace than Dallas is, so I would take Moss over Owens...in a heartbeat.

As for the "Brady will spread the ball around" crowd, why would he stop throwing to Moss when they are having this kind of success? The reason Brady always spread it around before this year is because he never had a true number 1 WR until Moss came to town.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Randy Moss is a great player.

 

[timschochet]

Moss has outscored Owens at this point, and New England is more likely to continue scoring at their current pace than Dallas is, so I would take Moss over Owens...in a heartbeat.As for the "Brady will spread the ball around" crowd, why would he stop throwing to Moss when they are having this kind of success? The reason Brady always spread it around before this year is because he never had a true number 1 WR until Moss came to town.

The reason Brady will spread it around more has less to do with Moss's talent as a true #1 and more to do with the type of team New England is. As the weather gets colder, you're going to see a lot more running by the Patriots and a lot more dumping off to the backs, and games won 17-3, with less scoring. This is simply the nature of cold weather teams; if you study the history of the NFL over the last two decades, you will find that NO teams playing back east with open stadiums are able to put up the same amount of points in the winter than they do in the fall. Moss will get his receptions, but overall, that team will slow down on offense, on purpose. Watch and see.On the other hand, Dallas and Indy play in a dome; their high-octane scoring patterns should stay consistent throughout the year. This is why I would tend to value Owens over Moss.

 

[swirvenirvin]

I what I thought after the draft reached fo him at 2.03, but I am happy that i did now

 

[RedmondLonghorn]

Moss has outscored Owens at this point, and New England is more likely to continue scoring at their current pace than Dallas is, so I would take Moss over Owens...in a heartbeat.As for the "Brady will spread the ball around" crowd, why would he stop throwing to Moss when they are having this kind of success? The reason Brady always spread it around before this year is because he never had a true number 1 WR until Moss came to town.

He is already spreading the ball around. Moss has basically the same number of targets as Welker and slightly more than half of the targets of the league leader (Housh). He is simply doing more with them. He is catching a very high percentage of the balls thrown his way (~88%) and is catching them well downfield. That makes him highly efficient.Is his efficiency bound to drop off a bit? Absolutely. He is not going to continue to catch virtually every ball thrown his way nor will he average 16+ yards per target over the full season. Does that mean his fantasy production is likely to drop off? It could, but that isn't necessarily the case. That will depend onon the run/pass mix and how the targets are divided up.Back to the topic of Brady's spreading around of the ball. Last season the Patriots threw only 51% of their passes toward WRs. That was very low. The league wide average last season was just under 60% (59.5%, to be exact). I think this was more out of necessity than by design.So far this season, they have targeted their wide receivers on 71% of their passes. Might that come down? It certainly could, but it isn't necessarily a certainty. The Bengals threw basically the same number of passes last year as the Patriots did and they targeted WRs on 74% of their passes.

 

[Tom Baker]

Moss has more receptions, more yards, and more TDs than Owens. Moss is a better receiver than Owens, plays on a better team than Owens, has a better QB than Owens. How is this even a debate?

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

Witten takes more TDs from TO than Welker takes from Moss.

 

[Cixelsyd]

I still go with Chad, but I like TO also...

Moss is interesting, he's been quiet while scoring bigtime... my fear with Moss is him getting hurt more then anything else.

I've never been a Steve Smith fan, but he seems to come up big... but I just can't make myself ever pick him over Chad or TO...

But if I were to draft today going forward, I couldn't see taking Moss 1st... probally Chad, TO, Moss

 

[SigEp316]

I think Moss' hammy will make another appearance this year...maybe when it starts getting cold, just a hunch.

I like T.O. for the whole year...Romo looks for him constantly.

 

[RedmondLonghorn]

Moss has more receptions, more yards, and more TDs than Owens. Moss is a better receiver than Owens, plays on a better team than Owens, has a better QB than Owens. How is this even a debate?

The bolded is very debatable, if we are looking at the last several years of productivity.

 

[BroadwayG]

I'm glad I was thinking this before preseason started.

 

[NoCheese]

Randy Moss is a great player.

:copyrightkarlgerbschmidt:

 

[Tom Baker]

Moss has more receptions, more yards, and more TDs than Owens. Moss is a better receiver than Owens, plays on a better team than Owens, has a better QB than Owens. How is this even a debate?

The bolded is very debatable, if we are looking at the last several years of productivity.

There were many receivers more productive than Moss while he was mired in that ####hole called Oakland. Are you going to argue that they're better receivers than Moss because they were in better situations? Didn't think so . . .

 

[timschochet]

Moss has more receptions, more yards, and more TDs than Owens. Moss is a better receiver than Owens, plays on a better team than Owens, has a better QB than Owens. How is this even a debate?

1. Moss has slightly more receptions, yards and TD's in the first 3 weeks, but TO has been highly productive as well.2. Moss is not a better receiver than Owens.3. Moss does play on a better team, but what does that have to do with fantasy? In the long run, this fact favors Owens, doesn't it? (As he will be involved in more games in the 4th qtr.)4. No question Brady is better than Romo. But again, doesn't that favor Owens? Romo, less experienced, is more likely to go to his main man on a higher percentage.Owens has to be rated above Moss. Has to be.

 

[maxwell1295]

Right now I'd rate them:

1. Moss

2. T.O.

3. Smith

4. CJ

5. Roy

I didn't have them ranked that way at the start of the season. I really screwed up with Moss, but ended up with 2 of the other 4 in a few leagues. Heck, I one league I ended up with CJ, T.O., and Roy.

 

[mbuehner]

Moss has got 5 TDs on 22 catches and he's catching 88% of the passes thrown his way. Anybody who thinks he can keep up that pace is in for it. Somebody is eventually going to decide to take their chances with Wes Welker beating them and take Moss out of the game. Brady isnt going to force him the ball the way Romo will.

 

[RedmondLonghorn]

Moss has more receptions, more yards, and more TDs than Owens. Moss is a better receiver than Owens, plays on a better team than Owens, has a better QB than Owens. How is this even a debate?

The bolded is very debatable, if we are looking at the last several years of productivity.

There were many receivers more productive than Moss while he was mired in that ####hole called Oakland. Are you going to argue that they're better receivers than Moss because they were in better situations? Didn't think so . . .

Cut the condescending act.I said it was debatable whether Moss or Owens is the better receiver, because it is.

 

[Wadsworth]

After 5 weeks last season Rex Grossman has 10 TDs and 3 INTs, and like 1200 yards and Reggie Williams had over 300 yards and 4 TDs. Things can change pretty fast and not that I'm comparing Randy Moss to Rex Grossman, but the fact that Moss has more right now isn't a strong argument that he'll end up with more. We've played 3 out 16. If you think Moss ends up fantasy WR1, then please give more of an argument than, "Well he has the most so far, so picking anyone else is stupud".

 

[gman8343]

Moss has more receptions, more yards, and more TDs than Owens. Moss is a better receiver than Owens, plays on a better team than Owens, has a better QB than Owens. How is this even a debate?

The bolded is very debatable, if we are looking at the last several years of productivity.

There were many receivers more productive than Moss while he was mired in that ####hole called Oakland. Are you going to argue that they're better receivers than Moss because they were in better situations? Didn't think so . . .

Cut the condescending act.I said it was debatable whether Moss or Owens is the better receiver, because it is.

I think Owens is a better all around WR than Moss.

 

[LHUCKS]

Owens was ranked #3 in my preseason rankings after Chad Johnson and Steve Smith.

 

[Tom Baker]

I said it was debatable whether Moss or Owens is the better receiver, because it is.

Not really. Watch a healthy, motivated Moss play some time. Like I said, not really a debate here . . .

 

[Wadsworth]

I said it was debatable whether Moss or Owens is the better receiver, because it is.

Not really. Watch a healthy, motivated Moss play some time. Like I said, not really a debate here . . .

Chocolate ice cream is better than vanilla ice cream. There's really no debate here.

 

[Tom Baker]

Moss has more receptions, more yards, and more TDs than Owens. Moss is a better receiver than Owens, plays on a better team than Owens, has a better QB than Owens. How is this even a debate?

1. Moss has slightly more receptions, yards and TD's in the first 3 weeks, but TO has been highly productive as well.

Since when is 6 fantasy points a game considered "slightly" better? That's pretty significant in my league.

 

[fflnut]

Moss has got 5 TDs on 22 catches and he's catching 88% of the passes thrown his way. Anybody who thinks he can keep up that pace is in for it. Somebody is eventually going to decide to take their chances with Wes Welker beating them and take Moss out of the game. Brady isnt going to force him the ball the way Romo will.

I agree that this will happen and Randy will put up below average (for him) numbers for that quarter, half, or possibly a full game. But, when it does happen, Welker, Gates, Maroney, other WRs will burn the hell out of that defense. They'll either adjust during the game and it'll open the field for Randy. If they don't, I think they'll get blown out. Other teams will see this and not make the same mistake.

 

[fflnut]

Moss has outscored Owens at this point, and New England is more likely to continue scoring at their current pace than Dallas is, so I would take Moss over Owens...in a heartbeat.As for the "Brady will spread the ball around" crowd, why would he stop throwing to Moss when they are having this kind of success? The reason Brady always spread it around before this year is because he never had a true number 1 WR until Moss came to town.

He is already spreading the ball around. Moss has basically the same number of targets as Welker and slightly more than half of the targets of the league leader (Housh). He is simply doing more with them. He is catching a very high percentage of the balls thrown his way (~88%) and is catching them well downfield. That makes him highly efficient.Is his efficiency bound to drop off a bit? Absolutely. He is not going to continue to catch virtually every ball thrown his way nor will he average 16+ yards per target over the full season. Does that mean his fantasy production is likely to drop off? It could, but that isn't necessarily the case. That will depend onon the run/pass mix and how the targets are divided up.Back to the topic of Brady's spreading around of the ball. Last season the Patriots threw only 51% of their passes toward WRs. That was very low. The league wide average last season was just under 60% (59.5%, to be exact). I think this was more out of necessity than by design.So far this season, they have targeted their wide receivers on 71% of their passes. Might that come down? It certainly could, but it isn't necessarily a certainty. The Bengals threw basically the same number of passes last year as the Patriots did and they targeted WRs on 74% of their passes.

I'd check, but not sure how really (also at work so can't attempt to either). What was the pass/run % for the Pats prior to last season? Last season the WRs were awful. Seasons prior they were better. Did they pass more then? I seem to remember a time that the Pats were pass first, run second, regardless of the cold weather.

 

[corpcow]

Randy Moss has been phenomenal but you know Brady's going to spread the ball around more.

Not to make this too much of a tangent, by why do we "know" this? Because he's spread the ball around in the past?People like to throw around stats that he's never had a x,xxx yard receiver, but he's never had a go-to stud WR like Moss before. Branch? Troy Brown? Jabar Gaffney? Give me a break.

I'm not saying, just saying.

 

[RedmondLonghorn]

I said it was debatable whether Moss or Owens is the better receiver, because it is.

Not really. Watch a healthy, motivated Moss play some time. Like I said, not really a debate here . . .

All you have proven here is that you can act like smug jackhole while bringing nothing of substance to the discussion.I am now remembering why I spend so little time in the the Shark Pool.

 

[Tom Baker]

I said it was debatable whether Moss or Owens is the better receiver, because it is.

Not really. Watch a healthy, motivated Moss play some time. Like I said, not really a debate here . . .

All you have proven here is that you can act like smug jackhole while bringing nothing of substance to the discussion.I am now remembering why I spend so little time in the the Shark Pool.

Here's some substance for you: Owens has caught 16 of 33 passes. My math says that's right around 48%. As has already been noted, Moss is close to 90%. So there's just one way in which Moss is a better receiver than Owens: he actually CATCHES the ball.

 

[corpcow]

Moss has outscored Owens at this point, and New England is more likely to continue scoring at their current pace than Dallas is, so I would take Moss over Owens...in a heartbeat.As for the "Brady will spread the ball around" crowd, why would he stop throwing to Moss when they are having this kind of success? The reason Brady always spread it around before this year is because he never had a true number 1 WR until Moss came to town.

He is already spreading the ball around. Moss has basically the same number of targets as Welker and slightly more than half of the targets of the league leader (Housh). He is simply doing more with them. He is catching a very high percentage of the balls thrown his way (~88%) and is catching them well downfield. That makes him highly efficient.Is his efficiency bound to drop off a bit? Absolutely. He is not going to continue to catch virtually every ball thrown his way nor will he average 16+ yards per target over the full season. Does that mean his fantasy production is likely to drop off? It could, but that isn't necessarily the case. That will depend onon the run/pass mix and how the targets are divided up.Back to the topic of Brady's spreading around of the ball. Last season the Patriots threw only 51% of their passes toward WRs. That was very low. The league wide average last season was just under 60% (59.5%, to be exact). I think this was more out of necessity than by design.So far this season, they have targeted their wide receivers on 71% of their passes. Might that come down? It certainly could, but it isn't necessarily a certainty. The Bengals threw basically the same number of passes last year as the Patriots did and they targeted WRs on 74% of their passes.

I'd check, but not sure how really (also at work so can't attempt to either). What was the pass/run % for the Pats prior to last season? Last season the WRs were awful. Seasons prior they were better. Did they pass more then? I seem to remember a time that the Pats were pass first, run second, regardless of the cold weather.

In 2006, they rushed 497 times to 526 pass attempts (1:1:05). They've had more pass attempts than rushing attempts every year since 2002 with the exception of 2004. This year, they've run 104 times and passed 88 times. In other words, they passed less so far this year - though that can probably be attributed to the fact that they've been in three blowouts. Troy Brown had 97 receptions in 2002, when they passed 588 times (the 11th most attempts for any team since 2002). Next highest was Branch with 78, and no one had more than 61 since that. (By the way, Randy Moss is on pace for 117/2150/27).The thing about Randy Moss is that while his targets are relatively low, we EXPECT him to do more with his receptions. He's aways been a deep threat and always been a red zone target. He's averaged 15.9ypc and averaged double digit TDs for his career. The real question was whether he still had it - physically and mentally.

 

[RedmondLonghorn]

I said it was debatable whether Moss or Owens is the better receiver, because it is.

Not really. Watch a healthy, motivated Moss play some time. Like I said, not really a debate here . . .

All you have proven here is that you can act like smug jackhole while bringing nothing of substance to the discussion.I am now remembering why I spend so little time in the the Shark Pool.

Here's some substance for you: Owens has caught 16 of 33 passes. My math says that's right around 48%. As has already been noted, Moss is close to 90%. So there's just one way in which Moss is a better receiver than Owens: he actually CATCHES the ball.

And over the previous five years, Owens caught 58% of passes thrown to him (389/674), while Moss caught 56% (368/660).FWIW, I would probably take Moss over Owens today as well. But your statements that there is no debate that Moss is the better receiver are assinine and your delivery sucks.

 

[Tom Baker]

Here's some substance for you: Owens has caught 16 of 33 passes. My math says that's right around 48%. As has already been noted, Moss is close to 90%. So there's just one way in which Moss is a better receiver than Owens: he actually CATCHES the ball.

And over the previous five years, Owens caught 58% of passes thrown to him (389/674), while Moss caught 56% (368/660).

Fair enough. I'm guessing those numbers are skewed by the debacle in Oakland; if I get a chance, I'll look it up at some point. I think, when placed in comparable situations, Moss is going to demonstrate decidedly better hands, and I don't think that's all too controversial of a statement, given Owens penchant for drops. We'll see how things turn out, though. At any rate, there will surely be one or two weeks when Owens outscores Moss this year and this thread will no doubt be bumped and I'll be called out . . .

 

[Ice Cream Man]

All you have proven here is that you can act like smug jackhole while bringing nothing of substance to the discussion.I am now remembering why I spend so little time in the the Shark Pool.

 

[RedmondLonghorn]

Here's some substance for you: Owens has caught 16 of 33 passes. My math says that's right around 48%. As has already been noted, Moss is close to 90%.

So there's just one way in which Moss is a better receiver than Owens: he actually CATCHES the ball.

And over the previous five years, Owens caught 58% of passes thrown to him (389/674), while Moss caught 56% (368/660).

Fair enough. I'm guessing those numbers are skewed by the debacle in Oakland; if I get a chance, I'll look it up at some point. I think, when placed in comparable situations, Moss is going to demonstrate decidedly better hands, and I don't think that's all too controversial of a statement, given Owens penchant for drops. We'll see how things turn out, though. At any rate, there will surely be one or two weeks when Owens outscores Moss this year and this thread will no doubt be bumped and I'll be called out . . .

Owens has had some nasty drops. But Owens has also demonstrated a willingness and ability to gain physical RAC yards and to run all of the routes in a WR's arsennal. Moss hadn't done either of those things in YEARS. He does seem to be doing them now though.

 

[SigEp316]

Here's some substance for you: Owens has caught 16 of 33 passes. My math says that's right around 48%. As has already been noted, Moss is close to 90%. So there's just one way in which Moss is a better receiver than Owens: he actually CATCHES the ball.

And over the previous five years, Owens caught 58% of passes thrown to him (389/674), while Moss caught 56% (368/660).

Fair enough. I'm guessing those numbers are skewed by the debacle in Oakland; if I get a chance, I'll look it up at some point. I think, when placed in comparable situations, Moss is going to demonstrate decidedly better hands, and I don't think that's all too controversial of a statement, given Owens penchant for drops. We'll see how things turn out, though. At any rate, there will surely be one or two weeks when Owens outscores Moss this year and this thread will no doubt be bumped and I'll be called out . . .

you can't simply dismiss those years in Oakland...and if so, should we dismiss T.O's number last year when he had a broken/pinned finger?

 

[Tom Baker]

Here's some substance for you: Owens has caught 16 of 33 passes. My math says that's right around 48%. As has already been noted, Moss is close to 90%.

So there's just one way in which Moss is a better receiver than Owens: he actually CATCHES the ball.

And over the previous five years, Owens caught 58% of passes thrown to him (389/674), while Moss caught 56% (368/660).

Fair enough. I'm guessing those numbers are skewed by the debacle in Oakland; if I get a chance, I'll look it up at some point. I think, when placed in comparable situations, Moss is going to demonstrate decidedly better hands, and I don't think that's all too controversial of a statement, given Owens penchant for drops. We'll see how things turn out, though. At any rate, there will surely be one or two weeks when Owens outscores Moss this year and this thread will no doubt be bumped and I'll be called out . . .

Owens has had some nasty drops. But Owens has also demonstrated a willingness and ability to gain physical RAC yards and to run all of the routes in a WR's arsennal. Moss hadn't done either of those things in YEARS. He does seem to be doing them now though.

Physicality is the one thing I'll give Owens over Moss.

 

[Assani Fisher]

Steve Smith has been great the first 2 weeks (not last week) but Delhomme getting hurt downgrades him. Randy Moss has been phenomenal but you know Brady's going to spread the ball around more. Both Ocho Cinco and Harrison have to split receptions with a nearly as good WR on the other side.

That leaves T.O. He is clearly the main man in Dallas; so long as he stays healthy I believe he will be the most consistent performer at this position the rest of the way. Anyone disagree?

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=333601

 

[Assani Fisher]

I'd take Owens over Moss* too. New England* has certainly dominated early on, but I expect them to come back to earth, and I think this will hurt Moss'* consistency. I take Steve Smith after these two though.

Next 3 games....Cincy: 266 pass yards allowed per game(23rd in league) and 2.66 pass TDs allowed per game(tied for 30th in league)

Clev:262 pass yards allowed per game(20th in league) and 3.66 pass TDs allowed per game(32nd in league)

Dal: 267 pass yards allowed per game(26th in league) and 2 pass TDs allowed per game(tied for 25th in league)

 

[Assani Fisher]

Moss has more receptions, more yards, and more TDs than Owens. Moss is a better receiver than Owens, plays on a better team than Owens, has a better QB than Owens. How is this even a debate?

The bolded is very debatable, if we are looking at the last several years of productivity.

There were many receivers more productive than Moss while he was mired in that ####hole called Oakland. Are you going to argue that they're better receivers than Moss because they were in better situations? Didn't think so . . .

Even taking situation fully into account, Randy Moss was not even a top 10 WR the past 2 years(NFL wise, not FF) yet alone better than T.O.

 

[Assani Fisher]

Moss has got 5 TDs on 22 catches and he's catching 88% of the passes thrown his way. Anybody who thinks he can keep up that pace is in for it. Somebody is eventually going to decide to take their chances with Wes Welker beating them and take Moss out of the game. Brady isnt going to force him the ball the way Romo will.

I can't find stats on % of passes caught for his career, but 5 TDs on 22 catches(22.7% of catches being TDs) is hardly anything new for Moss:1998: 17 TDs on 69 catches(24.6%)2000: 15 TDs on 77 catches(19.5%)2004: 13 TDs on 49 catches(26.5%)