If Stay At Home order lifted tomorrow, how would your behavior change? (1 Viewer)

[FBG26]

I went with "Some increase in activity, but stay home much more than usual (minimally affected area)". I think we're going to allow my parents to come over and see the kids shortly. Might let the kids use the nearby church playground that nobody ever uses but us. But we won't be doing malls, movies, restaurants (besides to-go), or anything like we did only to short months ago. 

 

[Johnny Rock]

I would go out to eat at a restaurant, go to a movie and a casino today if I could. #ReopenAmerica

 

[-OZ-]

"stay at home" order includes running and cycling outside. 

We'd go out to eat occasionally and I'd go back to the gym - pool only at first. 

Otherwise not much of a change except going back to the office.

 

[The Flying Turtle]

I'll get a freaking haircut as I'm starting to look ridiculous...after that, minimal changes.

I broke down and let my wife cut mine today. I was a little nervous, but she did a pretty good job.
 

In fact, my high school son saw my hair and he is CONSIDERING letting her cut his. That is quite the compliment since hair is pretty important to his image. 

 

[Zow]

I would do more boating, golfing and fishing, which are all shut down right now.   

Damn that sucks. Golfing has been my saving grace during all of this. Some significant restrictions but at least I can play and the slowing workload has allowed me to. 

 

[BobbyLayne]

"stay at home" order includes running and cycling outside. 

Interesting. You’re in Tennessee, right? Here at the epicenter cycling and running continued, albeit at reduced levels. Hiking & walking (while wearing PPE & practicing social distancing) is encouraged. Cuomo was gonna hit the Appalachian trail today with his daughters.

Good poll, for the most part I think people are not going to change much besides going to work if/when it’s safe. We’re going to need a lot more testing for antibodies to help manage how this is going to look over the next year until the vaccine is released.

I was just tested yesterday, pretty sure I had Covid 19 with mild symptoms early this month. Quarantined for 21 days, went back to volunteering at the food pantry today. Now I need to find a hair stylist who has had it lol.

 

[Judge Smails]

I'm curious to see the type of crowd that goes out.   With no carts, that's gonna be a lot of walking and I wonder if a lot of the normal folks will be up for it.

I went today. Had to try out my new pull cart. Just walk and have it whizzing in any direction up to 100 yards a way. Amazing. Thought I wouldn’t be as sore as when carrying a bag. I was whipped. It’s still a lot of miles. And it was Africa hot in So Cal today. Like heat stroke hot 

 

[TLEF316]

I'm pretty miserable right now, but if I could just play golf, (I walk/carry 90% of the time. Only time I'll walk is if its like 95+ degrees or its a sunday afternoon and I'm just totally wiped)  I'd be in such a better place. Haircut would be really nice too.

Right now its basically just log off work computer....watch TV/play video games for 7 hours/go to sleep/repeat over and over again. Once it gets a little warmer, I'll try to get outside more, but considering its in only in like the 40's/50's most days, I'm not even motivated to go out and walk a couple of miles.

 

[-OZ-]

Interesting. You’re in Tennessee, right? Here at the epicenter cycling and running continued, albeit at reduced levels. Hiking & walking (while wearing PPE & practicing social distancing) is encouraged. Cuomo was gonna hit the Appalachian trail today with his daughters.

Good poll, for the most part I think people are not going to change much besides going to work if/when it’s safe. We’re going to need a lot more testing for antibodies to help manage how this is going to look over the next year until the vaccine is released.

I was just tested yesterday, pretty sure I had Covid 19 with mild symptoms early this month. Quarantined for 21 days, went back to volunteering at the food pantry today. Now I need to find a hair stylist who has had it lol.

Northern Alabama, within running distance from Tennessee. 

We'd love to be tested to see if we had it, we had similar symptoms a while back 

 

[Otis]

Long Island NY. I think I would start seeing extended family a bit, backyard BBQ etc. Mostly stay outside, Disinfect the heck out of the bathrooms, be careful.   Might consider going to our favorite restaurant here and there, stores, but generally be smart about everything. I would still telecommute as long as I could; maybe start going into the office sporadically after a bit of everything still seems to be moving in the right direction. 

 

[Johnny Rock]

Would your answer move more toward “Return to normal” if you knew that “Social Distancing,” lockdowns and school closing have no real scientific basis and little to no effect?

https://www.dailywire.com/news/epidemiologist-warns-lockdown-policies-not-evidence-based-unsustainable-in-democracies

 

[Mr. Ected]

I would do more boating, golfing and fishing, which are all shut down right now.   

I'm curious to see the type of crowd that goes out.   With no carts, that's gonna be a lot of walking and I wonder if a lot of the normal folks will be up for it.

My BIL went golfing yesterday (He lives in WI a bit west of Green Bay). 

 

[gianmarco]

Would your answer move more toward “Return to normal” if you knew that “Social Distancing,” lockdowns and school closing have no real scientific basis and little to no effect?

https://www.dailywire.com/news/epidemiologist-warns-lockdown-policies-not-evidence-based-unsustainable-in-democracies

First, let's use this quote from him:

Giesecke estimated the fatality rate of the novel coronavirus to be somewhere around influenza levels, about .1%. What made the disease so scary was that it was new, he argued.

“Most people who get it will never even notice they were infected,” he said, adding that the fatality rate is likely “much, much lower” than what was initially thought.

“I think it would be like a severe influenza season,” Giesecke said, noting that we record COVID deaths more liberally than we would flu deaths.

Based on that alone, it's difficult to give much credibility to his argument when there is no basis to that statement.  Secondly, no, these policies aren't evidence-based.  Unfortunately, not everything can have significant evidence with use of proper studies and trials and reviews.  Especially something like this that is so extensive and without much to compare it to.  Not everything in medicine is evidence-based and that's when we work with consensus opinions from those that are experts in the field.  You then continue to reevaluate the results and the evidence and make changes. 

Using the argument that there's no evidence behind the policies is tenuous.  Because there's no possibility of there being evidence for any of our decisions so any choices or decisions or policies will lack proper evidence.  Doing nothing, however, is incredibly risky and dangerous and the idea that social distancing hasn't had an effect is just wrong.

He has the credentials to offer up valuable insight, but in this case, he's currently in the extreme minority and some of his statements simply don't make sense.

 

[Johnny Rock]

First, let's use this quote from him:

Giesecke estimated the fatality rate of the novel coronavirus to be somewhere around influenza levels, about .1%. What made the disease so scary was that it was new, he argued.

“Most people who get it will never even notice they were infected,” he said, adding that the fatality rate is likely “much, much lower” than what was initially thought.

“I think it would be like a severe influenza season,” Giesecke said, noting that we record COVID deaths more liberally than we would flu deaths.

Based on that alone, it's difficult to give much credibility to his argument when there is no basis to that statement.  Secondly, no, these policies aren't evidence-based.  Unfortunately, not everything can have significant evidence with use of proper studies and trials and reviews.  Especially something like this that is so extensive and without much to compare it to.  Not everything in medicine is evidence-based and that's when we work with consensus opinions from those that are experts in the field.  You then continue to reevaluate the results and the evidence and make changes. 

Using the argument that there's no evidence behind the policies is tenuous.  Because there's no possibility of there being evidence for any of our decisions so any choices or decisions or policies will lack proper evidence.  Doing nothing, however, is incredibly risky and dangerous and the idea that social distancing hasn't had an effect is just wrong.

He has the credentials to offer up valuable insight, but in this case, he's currently in the extreme minority and some of his statements simply don't make sense.

Don’t the high cases discovered through antibody testing and anecdotal evidence of thousands and thousands of people packing all the stores daily for 5 weeks yet death rates not skyrocketing provide some evidence? 

 

[gianmarco]

Don’t the high cases discovered through antibody testing and anecdotal evidence of thousands and thousands of people packing all the stores daily for 5 weeks yet death rates not skyrocketing provide some evidence? 

No, not really. Because there was clear exponential growth that slows everywhere at approximately the same time period after lockdown measures are implemented. If anything, it is evidence that it has worked. That doesn't mean it's the only way forward, but I don't think it's up for debate that the social distancing efforts have made a big difference.

As for his claim of 0.1% death rate, that is pretty much impossible.

The population of NYC is ~8,000,000. Let's assume every single last person in NYC has been infected (which is obviously not the case, but..). If you assume the death rate was 0.1%, then 8,000 people would be dead in NYC.

Except over 12,000 have already died in NYC. And that number is still growing. And it's only been a couple months. And, again, obviously not everyone has been infected.

So unless there's something especially virulent or different about Covid-19 in NYC that doesn't exist anywhere else, a death rate of only 0.1% is impossible.

 

[Tolstoy]

I still wouldn’t read the daily wire

 

[msommer]

I don't think it would change much for me. I might be able to convince the guys easier to meet and have a beer, but other than that I don't think I'd change anything. Don't wear a mask or gloves outside my home anyway

 

[Johnny Rock]

No, not really. Because there was clear exponential growth that slows everywhere at approximately the same time period after lockdown measures are implemented. If anything, it is evidence that it has worked. That doesn't mean it's the only way forward, but I don't think it's up for debate that the social distancing efforts have made a big difference.

As for his claim of 0.1% death rate, that is pretty much impossible.

The population of NYC is ~8,000,000. Let's assume every single last person in NYC has been infected (which is obviously not the case, but..). If you the death rate was 0.1%, then 8,000 people would be dead in NYC.

Except over 12,000 have already died in NYC. And that number is still growing. And it's only been a couple months. And, again, obviously not everyone has been infected.

So unless there's something especially virulent or different about Covid-19 in NYC that doesn't exist anywhere else, a death rate of only 0.1% is impossible.

Except the slowdown in growth happened in Sweden too which took a more open approach, although distancing was a part of their strategy too, which I hadn’t read before, so I give you that. Sweden is expecting to get to 30% herd immunity in May. 

The death rate won’t be exactly the same in all areas. Different populations, percentage of elderly, general health, socio-economic factors, density, etc. Some of the early antibody studies are showing that .1-.2% fatality number. 

 

[gianmarco]

Except the slowdown in growth happened in Sweden too which took a more open approach, although distancing was a part of their strategy too, which I hadn’t read before, so I give you that. Sweden is expecting to get to 30% herd immunity in May. 

The death rate won’t be exactly the same in all areas. Different populations, percentage of elderly, general health, socio-economic factors, density, etc. Some of the early antibody studies are showing that .1-.2% fatality number. 

Just an FYI (per Worldometer Coronavirus numbers):

Sweden sits right between Finland and Norway.  They have similar population types, similar climate, etc.  They differed in how they handled their response.

Finland deaths per 1 million population:  34
Norway deaths per 1 million population:  37
Sweden deaths per 1 million population:  225

One of those is not like the other.  Looks like lesser social distancing did them well. 

Look, no need to go back and forth anymore.  It's exhausting trying to have discussions when there's not even an agreement on clear facts.  The disease does not have a 0.1% fatality number.  It just doesn't.  And Sweden is a great example of how the lack of social distancing and lockdown enforced in other parts of the world has likely caused them to have a higher than needed fatality rate. 

I'm sure you'll have another attempted explanation for why Sweden has almost a 10 fold higher death rate than its neighbors.  I'm really not interested, though.

Good luck. 

 

[parasaurolophus]

Sweden sits right between Finland and Norway.  They have similar population types

I dont remember the specifics but from one of the threads in the PSF i remember being shocked at how different the populations of Sweden and the others are. 

If I remember correctly they have a higher percentage of foreign born population than we do. 

Your overall point doesnt change much(other than they probably had more people coming and going) just something I remember or mayne I am misremembering. 

 

[msommer]

Sweden is expecting to get to 30% herd immunity in May

After they pulled back those two studies with the calculation errors (e.g. counting Stockholm as if it had 6m inhabitants instead of 1.5m) IIRC they stated they had about 4% as of last week. Long way to 30 and their hospitals probably couldn't handle that influx

 

[gianmarco]

I dont remember the specifics but from one of the threads in the PSF i remember being shocked at how different the populations of Sweden and the others are. 

If I remember correctly they have a higher percentage of foreign born population than we do. 

Your overall point doesnt change much(other than they probably had more people coming and going) just something I remember or mayne I am misremembering. 

Sweden has about 25% of its population that is foreign-born.
Norway has about 14% of its population that is foreign-born.
Finland has about 7% of its population that is foreign-born.
USA has about 15% of its population that is foreign-born.

Interesting, yes, but you're right in that it doesn't change the overall point.  The 2 highest foreign born countries of origin are Syria and Iraq.  I had no idea and it's interesting that so many have sought Sweden as a destination to go to after leaving the Middle East.

 

[Johnny Rock]

Just an FYI (per Worldometer Coronavirus numbers):

Sweden sits right between Finland and Norway.  They have similar population types, similar climate, etc.  They differed in how they handled their response.

Finland deaths per 1 million population:  34
Norway deaths per 1 million population:  37
Sweden deaths per 1 million population:  225

One of those is not like the other.  Looks like lesser social distancing did them well. 

Look, no need to go back and forth anymore.  It's exhausting trying to have discussions when there's not even an agreement on clear facts.  The disease does not have a 0.1% fatality number.  It just doesn't.  And Sweden is a great example of how the lack of social distancing and lockdown enforced in other parts of the world has likely caused them to have a higher than needed fatality rate. 

I'm sure you'll have another attempted explanation for why Sweden has almost a 10 fold higher death rate than its neighbors.  I'm really not interested, though.

Good luck. 

If you offer the USA to give up 188 more fatalities per million (Sweden minus Norway) in order to keep trillions in GDP (less of a decrease than lockdown), much lower unemployment, greater freedom, better physical/mental health and much less financial ruin for individuals and businesses, I’d say the USA should take it.

There are trade-offs all the time in public policy and we’ve traded far too much for a very, very small difference.

Again, I would go to a Twins game tomorrow if you gave me tickets and I’ll probably go to a movie theater and buy popcorn and soda within the first day or two of them opening in my area.

 

[zftcg]

The first weekend after things starting shutting down in March, we went to the beach twice. It was really nice — the ones we went to weren’t crowded at all, so we could have our little spot in the sand and not interact with others. Then a couple days later all those images of idiot spring breakers were all over the news and Miami-Dade shut down all its beaches. If those reopened and they weren’t too crowded we would go back, but if they were packed we would turn right around and go home. 

If my office required us to go in I guess I’d do that, but I really hope that doesn’t happen as long as the schools are still closed.

The one thing I don’t see myself doing much more of is any sort of indoor activity. I don’t really do any of them now, and when I do I find it incredibly stressful. We’ve been doing all our shopping online for over a month now. The idea that Georgia reopened bowling lanes seems almost farcical to me. Hell, I was worried about how sanitary those places were before the pandemic. 

We have already started easing up on a couple things. The last few Sundays we’ve driven up to my in-laws and used their pool. I view that as slightly expanding our circle of trust. But to me the red line is situations where I’m in close quarters with people and I don’t know how many others they have been in contact with. 

 

[zftcg]

Hookers and cocaine... and 2 N95 masks

2 Girls, 1 N95 Mask

 

[TripItUp]

Zero fear, I’d go to a crowded restaurant and a baseball game tomorrow. 
 

if I’m the .01% of my demographic that dies from it, so be it. 

 

[msommer]

Sweden has about 25% of its population that is foreign-born.
Norway has about 14% of its population that is foreign-born.
Finland has about 7% of its population that is foreign-born.
USA has about 15% of its population that is foreign-born.

Interesting, yes, but you're right in that it doesn't change the overall point.  The 2 highest foreign born countries of origin are Syria and Iraq.  I had no idea and it's interesting that so many have sought Sweden as a destination to go to after leaving the Middle East.

I think the theory as it applies to recent immigrants is that they enter at the bottom of society (money wise) and are thus more likely to live in close quarters than more established citizens. There could also be cultural factors at play (multigenerational homes more frequent etc.).
Obviously it's easier to spread covid-19 if you live with a bunch of others than alone.
Not sure there's anything very controversial in that.
That said, I've only seen it alluded to in the media infrequently over here as something that ought to be looked into.

 

[msommer]

I had no idea and it's interesting that so many have sought Sweden as a destination to go to after leaving the Middle East.

Sweden has been a lot more open to receive immigrants than it's neighbors and a lot more open to family reunification.
It also has a welfare system that means you'll be able to have a place to live and not starve (along with free healthcare) even if you are unable to get a job.
In recent years (since the Syrian refugee crisis in 2015) some restrictions have been implemented, but nothing like e.g. Denmark that started out a lot more strict and tightened the restrictions even further in the wake of the 2015 crisis.