If you knew then, what you know now... (1 Viewer)

[nomarriage.com]

What are the top 24 picks in the draft if you knew the day of your draft, what you know as of 11/1/06

 

[nomarriage.com]

1.1 LT2

1.2 LJ

1.3 mcnabb? peyton?

does chicago D hit the first 24? I know a TON of the RB's predicted wouldn't hit it

 

[Mole]

Lamont Jordan

Daunte Culpepper

Derick Mason

 

[Warpig]

What are the top 24 picks in the draft if you knew the day of your draft, what you know as of 11/1/06

LTLJWestbrookMcNabbManningBradyManningGrossmanHoltColstonThere's my top 10

 

[tietzjd]

Top 30 In my leauge scoring * = My players

Tomlinson, LaDainian RB SD

Johnson, Larry RB KC

*McNabb, Donovan QB PHI (6th Round)

Manning, Peyton QB IND

Westbrook, Brian RB PHI

Bulger, Marc QB STL

Johnson, Andre WR HOU

Holt, Torry WR STL

Parker, Willie RB PIT

Brady, Tom QB NE

Brees, Drew QB NO

Kitna, Jon QB DET

Manning, Eli QB NYG

Jackson, Steven RB STL

Favre, Brett QB GB

Vick, Michael QB ATL

Jackson, Darrell WR SEA

*James, Edgerrin RB ARI (1st RD)

Johnson, Rudi RB CIN

*Jones, Kevin RB DET (5th)

*Wayne, Reggie WR IND (3rd)

Portis, Clinton RB WAS

Brown, Ronnie RB MIA

Winslow, Kellen TE CLE

Grossman, Rex QB CHI

Smith, Steve WR CAR

Gates, Antonio TE SD

Heap, Todd TE BAL

Rivers, Philip QB SD

Palmer, Carson QB CIN

Would draft them in this order.. No

 

[Fodasme69]

What are the top 24 picks in the draft if you knew the day of your draft, what you know as of 11/1/06

LTLJWestbrookMcNabbManningBradyManningGrossmanHoltColstonThere's my top 10

Every year DURING the season lists like this are put together and every year during Draft time we hear DO NOT draft QB's early. I do not believe a draft will EVER go like this. EVER! The 1st round will ALWAYS be RB heavy. JMHO!

 

[Warpig]

What are the top 24 picks in the draft if you knew the day of your draft, what you know as of 11/1/06

LTLJWestbrookMcNabbManningBradyManningGrossmanHoltColstonThere's my top 10

Every year DURING the season lists like this are put together and every year during Draft time we hear DO NOT draft QB's early. I do not believe a draft will EVER go like this. EVER! The 1st round will ALWAYS be RB heavy. JMHO!

Oh...I agree, but the question was "if you knew then what you know now"...so, since the guys above are the leading point scorers I'd want those guys.In contrast, I took Carson Palmer as the #9 pick in a 12 team redraft where all TD's are 6 pts(P. Manning was already gone). Lotta good that is doing me now. But it's not like any of the RB's that were available have really outscored him. I still ended up with Lamont Jordan in the 2nd rnd...and, well, we see what he's done so far. So far this season, the only RB's that have performed at their predicted level is LJ and LT. Westbrook has been a nice surprise. After that it's been a crap shoot. The leading scorers are QB's.

 

[djjosee]

Not pick Mr. Reliable at 1.01

 

[pigskinliquors]

1) LT

2) LJ

3) Westy

4) S-Jax

5) McNafro

6) Portis

7) K. Jones

8) Holt

9) Gore

10) Parker

11) P. Manning

12) Tiki

13) R. Wayne

14) S. Smith

15) R. Brown

16) Colston

17) Rudi

18) Julius

19) D-Jax

20) Da' Bears or Baltimore

Edited to add Baltimore w/ the Bears as both have been dominant (to say the least)

Also depending on scoring system, D's could be nowhere near here, or worth more, and either Gates or Alge should be added.

 

[SSOG]

Oh...I agree, but the question was "if you knew then what you know now"...so, since the guys above are the leading point scorers I'd want those guys.In contrast, I took Carson Palmer as the #9 pick in a 12 team redraft where all TD's are 6 pts(P. Manning was already gone). Lotta good that is doing me now. But it's not like any of the RB's that were available have really outscored him. I still ended up with Lamont Jordan in the 2nd rnd...and, well, we see what he's done so far. So far this season, the only RB's that have performed at their predicted level is LJ and LT. Westbrook has been a nice surprise. After that it's been a crap shoot. The leading scorers are QB's.

I'd suggest someone brush up on his VBD. Just because someone is the highest point scorer doesn't mean he's the most valuable player. Imagine a theoretical 2-person league with only 4 players, a QB who scores 100, a QB who scores 90, an RB who scores 25, and an RB who scores 10. You might think that the QB who scores 100 is the most valuable, but you'd be wrong, wrong, wrong. Whichever team gets the RB that scores 25 will win every single time.It's not about scoring, it's about scoring differential- the fact that there are so many QBs in the top 10 means that there's very little scoring differential between the top QBs (well, outside of Manning and McNabb), which means that QBs aren't as valuable as runningbacks or WRs.

 

[Cowboys#1]

if i knew then what i knew now..

1.01 lt2

1.02 lj

1.03 westbrook

1.04 jax

1.05 k. jones

1.06 f. gore

1.07 w. parker

1.08 t. barber

1.09 r. brown

1.10 c. portis

1.11 j. jones

1.12 r. johnson

2.01 t.holt

2.02 c. taylor

2.03 f. taylor

2.04 r. wayne

2.05 d. jackson

2.06 e. james

2.07 d. mcnabb

2.08 a. green

2.09 m. colston

2.10 a. johnson

2.11 w.dunn

2.12 p. manning

----

what i did was go back and just look at the positons taken in the first 2 rounds, and swap in the best player based on points that fit the position..

pretty crazy... only 3 players were drafted at the same position in both drafts... lt2, lj, and holt

 

[menobrown]

In a PPR league and I look at this as knowing what I know now but also projecting for the rest of the season:

1. LT

2. LJ

3. Kevin Jones(I would, I really would)

4. Steven Jackson

5. Donovan Mcnabb

6. Westbrook

7. Tiki Barber

8. Torry Holt

9. Andre Johnson

10.Willie Parker

11. Ronnie Brown

12. Frank Gore

 

[Fodasme69]

if i knew then what i knew now..1.01 lt21.02 lj1.03 westbrook1.04 jax1.05 k. jones1.06 f. gore1.07 w. parker1.08 t. barber1.09 r. brown1.10 c. portis1.11 j. jones1.12 r. johnson2.01 t.holt2.02 c. taylor2.03 f. taylor2.04 r. wayne2.05 d. jackson2.06 e. james2.07 d. mcnabb2.08 a. green2.09 m. colston2.10 a. johnson2.11 w.dunn2.12 p. manning----what i did was go back and just look at the positons taken in the first 2 rounds, and swap in the best player based on points that fit the position..pretty crazy... only 3 players were drafted at the same position in both drafts... lt2, lj, and holt

I'd suggest someone brush up on his VBD. Just because someone is the highest point scorer doesn't mean he's the most valuable player. Imagine a theoretical 2-person league with only 4 players, a QB who scores 100, a QB who scores 90, an RB who scores 25, and an RB who scores 10. You might think that the QB who scores 100 is the most valuable, but you'd be wrong, wrong, wrong. Whichever team gets the RB that scores 25 will win every single time.It's not about scoring, it's about scoring differential- the fact that there are so many QBs in the top 10 means that there's very little scoring differential between the top QBs (well, outside of Manning and McNabb), which means that QBs aren't as valuable as runningbacks or WRs.

VERY

 

[Darth Cheney]

If I knew then what I knew then.... I still wouldn't take McNabb in the first. He still would have slipped to me in the 4th. I might turn a few heads at the draft and take S.Jackson with the 3rd pick instead of Alexander though.

 

[secretid]

If we're assuming we literally know the pts scored for the first 8 weeks then I think you're just being stubborn if you don't take Chicago in the first round.

 

[SSOG]

if i knew then what i knew now..1.01 lt21.02 lj1.03 westbrook1.04 jax1.05 k. jones1.06 f. gore1.07 w. parker1.08 t. barber1.09 r. brown1.10 c. portis1.11 j. jones1.12 r. johnson2.01 t.holt2.02 c. taylor2.03 f. taylor2.04 r. wayne2.05 d. jackson2.06 e. james2.07 d. mcnabb2.08 a. green2.09 m. colston2.10 a. johnson2.11 w.dunn2.12 p. manning----what i did was go back and just look at the positons taken in the first 2 rounds, and swap in the best player based on points that fit the position..pretty crazy... only 3 players were drafted at the same position in both drafts... lt2, lj, and holt

I disagree with your methodology there. Part of the reason why certain positions are drafted so late (notably, Defenses, Wide Receivers, and Quarterbacks) is because there's a lot of uncertainty about who will perform where.If we held the draft again, Steve Smith and Torry Holt would both be no-brainer first-rounders. So would Manning and McNabb. Also, middling RBs like Fred Taylor, Chester Taylor, Edgerrin James, Ahman Green, Warrick Dunn, etc would all fall to the 3rd or 4th round to accomodate all of the "sure thing" producers that we now know about at WR, QB, and possibly even Defense (guys like Boldin, Wayne, Harrison, Bulger, Eli Manning, etc).

 

[pigskinliquors]

if i knew then what i knew now..1.01 lt21.02 lj1.03 westbrook1.04 jax1.05 k. jones1.06 f. gore1.07 w. parker1.08 t. barber1.09 r. brown1.10 c. portis1.11 j. jones1.12 r. johnson2.01 t.holt2.02 c. taylor2.03 f. taylor2.04 r. wayne2.05 d. jackson2.06 e. james2.07 d. mcnabb2.08 a. green2.09 m. colston2.10 a. johnson2.11 w.dunn2.12 p. manning----what i did was go back and just look at the positons taken in the first 2 rounds, and swap in the best player based on points that fit the position..pretty crazy... only 3 players were drafted at the same position in both drafts... lt2, lj, and holt

I disagree with your methodology there. Part of the reason why certain positions are drafted so late (notably, Defenses, Wide Receivers, and Quarterbacks) is because there's a lot of uncertainty about who will perform where.If we held the draft again, Steve Smith and Torry Holt would both be no-brainer first-rounders. So would Manning and McNabb. Also, middling RBs like Fred Taylor, Chester Taylor, Edgerrin James, Ahman Green, Warrick Dunn, etc would all fall to the 3rd or 4th round to accomodate all of the "sure thing" producers that we now know about at WR, QB, and possibly even Defense (guys like Boldin, Wayne, Harrison, Bulger, Eli Manning, etc).

They would only be "no-brainer first-rounders" if those you were drafting against had the same knowledge. McNabb was a late 5th round pick in most drafts = picking him in the 4th would make great sense. I posted my list above assuming that everyone had the same knowledge. IF I were the only one with the knowledge, the list would be VERY different.

 

[billyjoe]

I love how Manning jumps into everyone's first round.

Uh, he's only been a top 3 QB for what, 7 years? He's having an average year. And whoever put 4 qbs in the first round, um yah.

LT

LJ

SJAX

Westbrook

Portis

Tiki

Rudi

Gore

RB

KJ

SS

Holt

FWP

Taylor

Manning

AJ

Wayne

McNabb

Edge

McGahee

Harrison

Boldin

Green

So no, you don't go QB wild. There's still only 10-12 good RBs, you can't just go QB/WR nuts knowing half the season. I didn't really order the last 10-12 guys, but thats generally who I'd put in my top 24.

 

[Warpig]

Oh...I agree, but the question was "if you knew then what you know now"...so, since the guys above are the leading point scorers I'd want those guys.In contrast, I took Carson Palmer as the #9 pick in a 12 team redraft where all TD's are 6 pts(P. Manning was already gone). Lotta good that is doing me now. But it's not like any of the RB's that were available have really outscored him. I still ended up with Lamont Jordan in the 2nd rnd...and, well, we see what he's done so far. So far this season, the only RB's that have performed at their predicted level is LJ and LT. Westbrook has been a nice surprise. After that it's been a crap shoot. The leading scorers are QB's.

I'd suggest someone brush up on his VBD. Just because someone is the highest point scorer doesn't mean he's the most valuable player. Imagine a theoretical 2-person league with only 4 players, a QB who scores 100, a QB who scores 90, an RB who scores 25, and an RB who scores 10. You might think that the QB who scores 100 is the most valuable, but you'd be wrong, wrong, wrong. Whichever team gets the RB that scores 25 will win every single time.It's not about scoring, it's about scoring differential- the fact that there are so many QBs in the top 10 means that there's very little scoring differential between the top QBs (well, outside of Manning and McNabb), which means that QBs aren't as valuable as runningbacks or WRs.

I was going on the assupmtion that if I had my draft to do over again I would only get to pick two of the "updated" top 24. So depending on what fell to me I would want to make sure I got somebody off of that list and that is the list I would take to the draft with me. But I still think that after LT and LJ there is a logjam of similarly scoring RB's. I mean, how big of a difference is there in say KJ, Gore, and Dunn? Not a whole lot I assume...but I could be wrong. But I would certainly want one of those QB's and WR's!

 

[Cowboys#1]

even with the list i posted, everyone knowing their point totals etc.. i still dont think im spending a top 6 pick on mcnabb or manning.. ill wait till the 3rd round and grab bulger/vick.. id probably go rb/wr/qb/rb/rb with the depth at the position this year..

 

[minister]

If we're assuming we literally know the pts scored for the first 8 weeks then I think you're just being stubborn if you don't take Chicago in the first round.

Nothing to do with stubborn. Unless your crystal ball is also telling you that someone else will take Chicago before you pick again, you're passing on value.

 

[shadyridr]

if i knew then what i knew now..1.01 lt21.02 lj1.03 westbrook1.04 jax1.05 k. jones1.06 f. gore1.07 w. parker1.08 t. barber1.09 r. brown1.10 c. portis1.11 j. jones1.12 r. johnson2.01 t.holt2.02 c. taylor2.03 f. taylor2.04 r. wayne2.05 d. jackson2.06 e. james2.07 d. mcnabb2.08 a. green2.09 m. colston2.10 a. johnson2.11 w.dunn2.12 p. manning----what i did was go back and just look at the positons taken in the first 2 rounds, and swap in the best player based on points that fit the position..pretty crazy... only 3 players were drafted at the same position in both drafts... lt2, lj, and holt

Steve Smith down?

 

[Rogi]

Oh...I agree, but the question was "if you knew then what you know now"...so, since the guys above are the leading point scorers I'd want those guys.In contrast, I took Carson Palmer as the #9 pick in a 12 team redraft where all TD's are 6 pts(P. Manning was already gone). Lotta good that is doing me now. But it's not like any of the RB's that were available have really outscored him. I still ended up with Lamont Jordan in the 2nd rnd...and, well, we see what he's done so far. So far this season, the only RB's that have performed at their predicted level is LJ and LT. Westbrook has been a nice surprise. After that it's been a crap shoot. The leading scorers are QB's.

I'd suggest someone brush up on his VBD. Just because someone is the highest point scorer doesn't mean he's the most valuable player. Imagine a theoretical 2-person league with only 4 players, a QB who scores 100, a QB who scores 90, an RB who scores 25, and an RB who scores 10. You might think that the QB who scores 100 is the most valuable, but you'd be wrong, wrong, wrong. Whichever team gets the RB that scores 25 will win every single time.It's not about scoring, it's about scoring differential- the fact that there are so many QBs in the top 10 means that there's very little scoring differential between the top QBs (well, outside of Manning and McNabb), which means that QBs aren't as valuable as runningbacks or WRs.

I went with the VBD approach this year and right now I have a wonderful 2-6 record. My worst start. I thought I had an edge over the other teams in my league, but the guy that shows up and drafts by name recognition is even beating me. VBD is a good theory, but the major problem with it is NOBODY can accurately project statistics.Here's what my VBD team looked like after the draft:QBs: Plummer, Brooks RBs: Caddy, Julius Jones, AddaiWRs: Smith, T.O., Kennison, Matt Jones, Drew BennettK: Kaeding, Josh BrownDST: Bengals, VikingsI've wheeled and dealed some decent trades, plus Steve Smith is healthy, so my team is now competitive, but it is too little too late.

 

[AB in DC]

VBD is a good theory, but the major problem with it is NOBODY can accurately project statistics.

So, you know of a drafting theory that doesn't involve projecting players' stats? Do share.

 

[dawgtrails]

Dont know the exact order, but probably these 24 guys. Not much would be different I dont think...just the ordering of them.

QB-McNabb, Manning

Cant justify any other QBs going in the first 24 picks

RB-LT2, LJ, Westy, Jax, Barber, K Jones, R Brown, Portis, Gore, C Taylor, Parker, Rudi, Edge, F Taylor, J Jones, Tatum, McGahee, T Jones, A Green, Deuce.

I would still want to get 2 of these guys probably. There is not much beyond these guys.

WR-Holt, Smith

Only these 2 stick out enough to me. All you clowns who are saying Colston should go in the first 24 are whacked. The next 10-15 WRs are all close enough to each other if you ask me.

Tough ommisons would be Chicago, A Johnson, TO, Bulger, Boldin, Wayne, a few more probably.

There is still half the year left, and you would still need 2 solid running backs. We still have seen wideouts pop up here and there.

 

[HULLOBUDMAN]

Oh...I agree, but the question was "if you knew then what you know now"...so, since the guys above are the leading point scorers I'd want those guys.In contrast, I took Carson Palmer as the #9 pick in a 12 team redraft where all TD's are 6 pts(P. Manning was already gone). Lotta good that is doing me now. But it's not like any of the RB's that were available have really outscored him. I still ended up with Lamont Jordan in the 2nd rnd...and, well, we see what he's done so far. So far this season, the only RB's that have performed at their predicted level is LJ and LT. Westbrook has been a nice surprise. After that it's been a crap shoot. The leading scorers are QB's.

I'd suggest someone brush up on his VBD. Just because someone is the highest point scorer doesn't mean he's the most valuable player. Imagine a theoretical 2-person league with only 4 players, a QB who scores 100, a QB who scores 90, an RB who scores 25, and an RB who scores 10. You might think that the QB who scores 100 is the most valuable, but you'd be wrong, wrong, wrong. Whichever team gets the RB that scores 25 will win every single time.It's not about scoring, it's about scoring differential- the fact that there are so many QBs in the top 10 means that there's very little scoring differential between the top QBs (well, outside of Manning and McNabb), which means that QBs aren't as valuable as runningbacks or WRs.

We are playing the "if I knew then what I know now" game. You want to talk about scoring differential? How could you NOT include McNabb in your top 5? He has the 2nd best scoring differential in a 12 team, all TDs 6 points, ppr league(which I think is a pretty common scoring system these days).Edited to say: @nd best scoring differential vs. worst starter in 1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1TE, 1K, 1DEdited to added: I'm an idiot. I can't even remember my own scoring system only rewards .5 to the backs. Anyone have the top 24 point differentials in a ppr?

 

[freakshow]

I'll play...I'm not sure about having so many QBs at the top of lists. You could still get a good QB later and I don't think that the spread is so big once you get past the top two. If I can take Jon Kitna in the late rounds while someone else is drafting Grossman in the first, I'll take that any day. I'm not really a big fan of basing my team on a stud QB though, I would much rather get a solid QB in the mid-rounds.

1.1 LT2

1.2 LJ

1.3 Jackson

1.4 Westbrook

1.5 Tiki

1.6 K. Jones

1.7 Holt

1.8 Portis

1.9 Gore

1.10 McNabb

1.11 R. Johnson

1.12 S. Smith

2.1 Wayne

2.2 A. Johnson

2.3 Ronnie Brown

2.4 J. Jones

2.5 P. Manning

2.6 FWP

2.7 C. Taylor

2.8 E. James

2.9 TO

2.10 Colston

2.11 McGahee

2.12 D. Jax

 

[HULLOBUDMAN]

VBD is a good theory, but the major problem with it is NOBODY can accurately project statistics.

So, you know of a drafting theory that doesn't involve projecting players' stats? Do share.

Not everyone follows VBD. Some people still tier players and look for value based upon ADP. When you think about it, VBD is a bit idiotic. You project stats based upon past production, personell changes, new coaching staffs and assume a player is going to score X points. It comes your turn to draft and you pick a guy because his VBD ranking is +4 over player Y? No one gets rankings right. I would say that most people that do thier own ranking probably don't even get 1 players projections EXACTLY right much less two players and thier EXACT differential.However, I still would not draft a QB in the early rounds in smaller leagues(8-12 team).

 

[Rogi]

VBD is a good theory, but the major problem with it is NOBODY can accurately project statistics.

So, you know of a drafting theory that doesn't involve projecting players' stats? Do share.

What I've seen from VBD is it generally leads to drafting WRs early and QBs late. And no, I don't have a theory not involving projecting stats for drafting, but most of fantasy football is luck. I'm just saying, people can spend countless hours projecting stats and calculating VBD rankings, but you can probably get the same end result and save yourself a lot of time by printing up last years' (or 2 or 3 years') stats and making your adjustments based on injuries, schedules, and personnel changes before the draft. In my league, QBs get 6 pts per touchdown. Next year, after the top 3 RBs are gone, I'm going for a top tier QB despite the wait on a QB advice we all hear. There are weeks where a good QB will put up 30-40 points in my league, which can carry your team as long as some of the other players put up an average performance.

 

[cubbie5150]

Even drafting today, the first 24 picks would & should be RB heavy... Depth at RB is always key (meaning, it increases the PROBABILITY of a successful season). Besides, just b/c certain players have scored well to date, that isn't necessarily the same thing as guaranteeing they'll be at the top when it's all said & done...

 

[HULLOBUDMAN]

Even drafting today, the first 24 picks would & should be RB heavy... Depth at RB is always key (meaning, it increases the PROBABILITY of a successful season). Besides, just b/c certain players have scored well to date, that isn't necessarily the same thing as guaranteeing they'll be at the top when it's all said & done...

No offense but I think with the evolution of fantasy football scoring this has become a common misconception. There are so many leagues that have changed scoring so it doesn't favor running backs so much. Maybe it is just the leagues that I play in but I love guys like you that think they are better off going RB/RB at the bottom of a serpentine draft. Stud RB theory is dead.

 

[cubbie5150]

Even drafting today, the first 24 picks would & should be RB heavy... Depth at RB is always key (meaning, it increases the PROBABILITY of a successful season). Besides, just b/c certain players have scored well to date, that isn't necessarily the same thing as guaranteeing they'll be at the top when it's all said & done...

No offense but I think with the evolution of fantasy football scoring this has become a common misconception. There are so many leagues that have changed scoring so it doesn't favor running backs so much. Maybe it is just the leagues that I play in but I love guys like you that think they are better off going RB/RB at the bottom of a serpentine draft. Stud RB theory is dead.

My point isn't intended to be a blanket endorsement of the stud RB theory... Though the way I put it, to be fair, can be read as such. My intended point, which I think would happen more often than not, is that the top 24 would be comprised primarily (by a landslide) of RBs...I'm not saying I NECESSARILY go RB-RB...as always, it's all relative---depends on the players available when it's your turn to pick. It hasn't happened often, but I have gone QB-WR-RB before. It all comes down to value, of course. Sure, there have been plenty of league championships won by guys not taking 2 RBs in the first 3 rounds, but, I still believe a solid RB corps gives one a better chance at success over the long run. That's all I'm saying...

 

[SSOG]

What I've seen from VBD is it generally leads to drafting WRs early and QBs late.

Historically, preseason top-10 WRs have a much stronger history of finishing as solid fantasy forces than preseason top-10 RBs, and historically a huge chunk of the QB top-10 is composed of late-round QBs (Brady, Brees, Palmer, Kitna, Brunell, Bledsoe, etc, etc, etc). Seems like pretty solid advice to me.