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If You're Way Behind From Thursday (1 Viewer)

Neil Beaufort Zod

Neil Beaufort Zod

Footballguy
Just wondering if your philosophy changes if you got blasted Thursday (your opponent started Colts or you started Saints, or both). Are you more likely to take some risks with the rest of your lineup to catch up, or do you want to play it safe because you can't afford to misfire?

Also, if you're way AHEAD, does that change anything? Are you more likely to take a risk because you think you can afford it, or do you want to preserve your good start?

Or does it not change anything at all? This is one of a few times that owners will get a sneak peek at their team before setting the rest of their lineup. How do you handle it? Thanks.

 
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If I am in a league that pays $$$ for overall points, it doesn't change my strategy at all. If it is strictly head to head, I might insert a player with big play ability over just a consistent solid starter.

 
I'm down big and thinking about putting ADP in over Cadillac just for the hope that he'll break a couple long TD runs.

 
None of my starters have played yet but my team got a lift when Bush misfired for my opponent. Because of that I'm thinking of plugging in Housh over Portis as my flex because it's a little less risky. Ultimately I'll probably stick with Portis though.

 
had petyon going for me, and duece (that didn't help out much)

plugged in AD just cause.

 
I changed my lineup and added Portis, even though it's a little riskier. Off to a slow start with Bush.

 
It wouldn't change my approach at all - I choose the players that I think will perform the best that week. How some players did on Thursday night shouldn't change that.

 
It shouldn't change anything, it wouldn't for me. If you get so far behind because one of your qb, rb's, wr's or te has a lousy Thursday game, and you don't have the players to make up for it, I suggest playing in a real league with IDP's.

 
The Man With No Name said:
It shouldn't change anything, it wouldn't for me. If you get so far behind because one of your qb, rb's, wr's or te has a lousy Thursday game, and you don't have the players to make up for it, I suggest playing in a real league with IDP's.
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I bow down to such superior fantasy footballers such as yourself. I wish my fake leagues could compete with yours.
 
In week one it doesn't change my lineup at all. Depending on how my team pans out this answer will change as the season progresses.

 
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I am playing against wayne, and he exploded. The guy also has LT. I have my work cut our for me. I am countering with sjax, peterson, julius jones, roy williams to name only a few. I am not scared.

 
I have zero and my opponent has 47 (he had Manning and Wayne). The first half was great, but man that second half killed me. Not doing anything to my lineup because I think I picked the players that will score the most. I do have Adrian Peterson on the bench though and could see taking some risk to plug him in (still not sure how the split is going to be with Chester Taylor). I'm pretty conservative though -- but see how a huge deficit could make you change course for high risk / high potential return players. Anyway, it's Week 1 and we'll see how it works out -- it's a long season.

 
Depends on your league scoring.

We have double TD points for anything over 50 yds so if you are down by a bunch you'd be much better off throwing in a HR hitter like Berrian / Evans in hopes of the big points instead of an RB who will at best get you 100yds and a TD.

 
Your original selections are your best attempt at maximizing expected value. With no new information, you would be foolish to change it.

However, if you are way behind after Thursday, you have new information which may indicate that your lineup with the highest expected value is unlikely to outscore your opponent's new expected value. In other words, if this weekend's games were played 100 times, your current lineup might average a higher score than any other lineup you could start, but still lose to your opponent most of the time. In this situation, an alternative lineup with higher variance may give you a much better chance of outscoring your opponent (even though it might score fewer points than your previous starting lineup on average). When behind big, you should also try to select players whose performance is uncorrelated with your opponent's players.

So, what are the characteristics of a higher variance line-up?

1. Boom or bust players

2. Line-ups with QB-WR pairs from the same team (e.g. starting Roethlisberger and Holmes in the hopes of a few long Holmes TDs)

3. Line-ups with RBs from different teams than your starting QBs and WRs (there tends to be a ceiling on how many TDs any one team will score in a week--starting multiple players from one team therefore reduces upside relative to starting comparable players from multiple teams)

Player correlation:

If you are up big, starting players whose performance is correlated with your opponent's players is a good move. For example, you might start the QB from the team that your opponents top WR plays for. If both the QB and WR perform poorly, you maintain your lead. If the WR performs great, you are less likely to lose your lead since your QB is also therefore doing well.

If you are down big, the opposite holds true. If you have two WRs with relatively equal projections for the week (say Cotchery and Holmes) and your opponent is starting Roethlisberger, you are better off playing Cotchery.

Final note:

I think these strategies are helpful on the margin, but should never be used over common sense. For example, I would not suggest benching T.O. in favor of Eddie Kennison simply because you are down big and your opponent is starting Romo. These decisions only hold when the players in question have relatively equal projections for the coming week.

 
I'm down big after Thursday (my bro had Wayne, I had McAllister) and he has a pretty solid team. It's causing me to think about plugging in a homerun hitter as opposed to a consistent performer. My choice is basically Jerious Norwood or Jacoby Jones. I'm starting to lean going Jones....

Yes, I'm in trouble this week.

 
It definitely depends WHY you're ahead or down. If it's because 1 of Mannng/Wayne/Addai/Harrison go in the game and the other team had no one, it really changes things little. You expected good production from those guys going into the week, whether for you or against you.

If however, you faced Marlin Jackson & Freddy Keiaho in an IDP league, you might be nervous. (I wish I had started them) :rolleyes:

If where you are is about where you expected to be, no big deal. If it's unexpected, then you miht go for increasing or decreasing the variance plays as needed.

 
I am swapping out Hasselbeck for Delhomme. I can't see the Seahawks needing to air it out, I expect an efficient game. I am crossing my fingers that the Rams force a shootout.

Manning/Wayne have me in a huge hole.

 
toxic said:
However, if you are way behind after Thursday, you have new information which may indicate that your lineup with the highest expected value is unlikely to outscore your opponent's new expected value. In other words, if this weekend's games were played 100 times, your current lineup might average a higher score than any other lineup you could start, but still lose to your opponent most of the time. In this situation, an alternative lineup with higher variance may give you a much better chance of outscoring your opponent
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In other words, the "point" of this thread.
 
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