I'm thinking of going QB earlier this year (1 Viewer)

[HULLOBUDMAN]

I have almost always waited on QB until later in the draft but I read something on this board yesterday about QB getting 6 points for TDs that is making me rethink that strategy.

16 team league. 1QB/1RB/2WR/1TE/1Flex/K/D

QBs get 1 per 20 passing 6 for TDs

I think it was Evilgrin who posted that he thought that in this type of scoring format that a top tier QB is more important than the typical formats. It was an afterthought in his post but I thought it might warrant more discussion. Especially in a league this large, it is not really possible to go with a 3 QBBC so getting the right two is usually pretty difficult. I'm thinking of drafting a QB closer to the 4th or 5th rather than the 8th or 9th.

What do you say?

 

[bueno]

In a six point per TD league, QB obviously is more important. I still wouldn't grab a QB (except Manning) until at least the third round, and then only if your other owners are wise to the fact. Where will QBs be drafted on average in your league? Why pick up a Bulger in the third if you can get him in the 5th? Play to your opponents weaknesses.

 

[HULLOBUDMAN]

. And Carson Palmer sits there, tantalizing me with his possible 4,000 yard, 30+ TD season. Our league is a 6 pt/TD league for QBs, which doesn't make QBs more valuable in relation to one another, but I believe it makes them more valuable vs. other positions (though some argue this.)

Found that quote.

 

[HULLOBUDMAN]

In a six point per TD league, QB obviously is more important. I still wouldn't grab a QB (except Manning) until at least the third round, and then only if your other owners are wise to the fact. Where will QBs be drafted on average in your league? Why pick up a Bulger in the third if you can get him in the 5th? Play to your opponents weaknesses.

I appreciate your input.Have you ever played in a league so large? Last year by the end of the 5th there were 8 QBs taken. One owner actually ended up with 2 top 10 ranked QBs in the 7th by the time I picked my first.

Also, I was thinking about the 4th or 5th as stated in my first post so I guess we kind of agree here, although Bulger will most likely not be available on the 5th.

Thanks again.

 

[Aaronstory]

Don't be that guy.

 

[-OZ-]

In a six point per TD league, QB obviously is more important. I still wouldn't grab a QB (except Manning) until at least the third round, and then only if your other owners are wise to the fact. Where will QBs be drafted on average in your league? Why pick up a Bulger in the third if you can get him in the 5th? Play to your opponents weaknesses.

I appreciate your input.Have you ever played in a league so large? Last year by the end of the 5th there were 8 QBs taken. One owner actually ended up with 2 top 10 ranked QBs in the 7th by the time I picked my first.

Also, I was thinking about the 4th or 5th as stated in my first post so I guess we kind of agree here, although Bulger will most likely not be available on the 5th.

Thanks again.

The only leagues I've played in that large have been 3 dynasty leagues of 16, 20 and 24 teams. As you'd imagine, QBs are much more valuable in those formats, but that has as much to do with the dynasty part as the size of the league.I'd certainly put Peyton on my list in the late 1st / early 2nd, probably include Hasselbeck, McNabb and Brady in the 3rd. Maybe Palmer, but that depends on his health (I've not kept track). Look at the VBD, and I think we'll find a few QBs in the top 40 players. As always, don't reach for a position, but certainly don't rule one out either.

 

[H.K.]

I have almost always waited on QB until later in the draft but I read something on this board yesterday about QB getting 6 points for TDs that is making me rethink that strategy.

16 team league. 1QB/1RB/2WR/1TE/1Flex/K/D

QBs get 1 per 20 passing 6 for TDs

I think it was Evilgrin who posted that he thought that in this type of scoring format that a top tier QB is more important than the typical formats. It was an afterthought in his post but I thought it might warrant more discussion. Especially in a league this large, it is not really possible to go with a 3 QBBC so getting the right two is usually pretty difficult. I'm thinking of drafting a QB closer to the 4th or 5th rather than the 8th or 9th.

What do you say?

Two things:1) VBD still applies, so don't change strategy for changes sake.

2) Do a few Mocks to see what happens if you take a QB early vs. wait. I'll wager that one of the outcomes you'll like more than the other. This way you can rely on your personal preference and plan accordingly for the draft.

 

[MLBrandow]

Do it if you can grab Palmer/Manning in 2nd round, or a solid RB1 in the 2nd.

You HAVE to take a RB in one of the first two rounds, but grabbing a Manning/Palmer or even Bulger is invaluable in a 16-team league that rewards 6pt TDs.

 

[GregR_2]

2) Do a few Mocks to see what happens if you take a QB early vs. wait. I'll wager that one of the outcomes you'll like more than the other. This way you can rely on your personal preference and plan accordingly for the draft.

GB a very In my opinion if you aren't doing this already, you aren't preparing adequately for your league. Don't take this wrong, it is fun to sit around and talk FF about stuff like how early to take a QB... but you should never have to ask what you're asking in this thread. You should have found out the consequences in your draft preparation by actually trying it while doing mocks. No strategy or method (VBD, DVBD) can ever take into account everything you should consider. The only way to take everything into account is to have done it before and have a good feel for the consequences of each decision.

My on it anyway. YMMV.

 

[bueno]

In a six point per TD league, QB obviously is more important.  I still wouldn't grab a QB (except Manning) until at least the third round, and then only if your other owners are wise to the fact.  Where will QBs be drafted on average in your league?  Why pick up a Bulger in the third if you can get him in the 5th?  Play to your opponents weaknesses.

I appreciate your input.Have you ever played in a league so large? Last year by the end of the 5th there were 8 QBs taken. One owner actually ended up with 2 top 10 ranked QBs in the 7th by the time I picked my first.

Also, I was thinking about the 4th or 5th as stated in my first post so I guess we kind of agree here, although Bulger will most likely not be available on the 5th.

Thanks again.

I was thinking in terms of a 12 team league but the philosophy still stands. No sense getting a QB early if the rest of your owners haven't figured that out.In a 16 team league, you have to weigh the value of two good rbs and a mid-level qb against rb-qb-scrub rb (assuming start 2). Almost all the leagues I've been in place a premium on RBs - even ones that give 6 pts for a passing TD.

VBD might argue otherwise, but that is small consolation if you get to round three with Steven Jackson and Mark Bulger and the best RB available is TJ Duckett. I'd rather have Steven Jackson, Fred Taylor and Kurt Warner, wouldn't you?

 

[bueno]

I have almost always waited on QB until later in the draft but I read something on this board yesterday about QB getting 6 points for TDs that is making me rethink that strategy.

16 team league. 1QB/1RB/2WR/1TE/1Flex/K/D

QBs get 1 per 20 passing 6 for TDs

I think it was Evilgrin who posted that he thought that in this type of scoring format that a top tier QB is more important than the typical formats. It was an afterthought in his post but I thought it might warrant more discussion. Especially in a league this large, it is not really possible to go with a 3 QBBC so getting the right two is usually pretty difficult. I'm thinking of drafting a QB closer to the 4th or 5th rather than the 8th or 9th.

What do you say?

Two things:1) VBD still applies, so don't change strategy for changes sake.

2) Do a few Mocks to see what happens if you take a QB early vs. wait. I'll wager that one of the outcomes you'll like more than the other. This way you can rely on your personal preference and plan accordingly for the draft.

Generally good advice. I don't do mocks anymore though. I do models - I take ADP data and run a draft, taking into account the known tendencies of the other owners in my league. You might have a few guys that go off ADP or FBG rankings invariably, or some guys that have easy to spot tendencies. Mocks with total strangers are of limited value compared to the models you can build yourself.VBD is only a starting point. If I went strict VBD with my own prognostications, 4 wrs should have been taken in round 1. Well, no way that would happen in any of my leagues. One could buck the trend and go stud wr, but you wouldn't win your league with Deshaun Foster, Addai, Steve Smith and Terrell Owens.

 

[ookook]

Look at thet dropoff between your QB8 and QB16 and what does it tell you?

(Note that 6pt TD passes changes this LITTLE).

 

[H.K.]

Generally good advice.  I don't do mocks anymore though.  I do models - I take ADP data and run a draft, taking into account the known tendencies of the other owners in my league.  You might have a few guys that go off ADP or FBG rankings invariably, or some guys that have easy to spot tendencies.  Mocks with total strangers are of limited value compared to the models you can build yourself.

VBD is only a starting point.  If I went strict VBD with my own prognostications, 4 wrs should have been taken in round 1.  Well, no way that would happen in any of my leagues.  One could buck the trend and go stud wr, but you wouldn't win your league with Deshaun Foster, Addai, Steve Smith and Terrell Owens.

I do the same thing. In one of my leagues I have taken the most recent five years of data to determine how many of each position are taken in each round. If I know that based on historical averages I have a choice between RB17, QB4, WR6 or TE1 when my pick comes, it helps when I do my modeling.

Knowing draft order ahead of time allows projecting based on owner tendencies to load up on a position or favor a specific player and adjust accordingly. Last year I drafted a team that had 7 out of the 8 players I had forcasted to be on my roster through eight rounds, so this type of preparation really helped me. The true benefit to knowing this is to research the 2-3 players who are the logical selections for each round that should be avialable when its your turn to pick, and also easily identify a guy who slipped.

 

[HULLOBUDMAN]

2) Do a few Mocks to see what happens if you take a QB early vs. wait. I'll wager that one of the outcomes you'll like more than the other. This way you can rely on your personal preference and plan accordingly for the draft.

GB a very In my opinion if you aren't doing this already, you aren't preparing adequately for your league. Don't take this wrong, it is fun to sit around and talk FF about stuff like how early to take a QB... but you should never have to ask what you're asking in this thread. You should have found out the consequences in your draft preparation by actually trying it while doing mocks. No strategy or method (VBD, DVBD) can ever take into account everything you should consider. The only way to take everything into account is to have done it before and have a good feel for the consequences of each decision.

My on it anyway. YMMV.

Great advice. I usually do mock draft but it is especially difficult to find anyone to seriously pair with in a 16 team mock. If you can point me in the right direction, that would be appreciated.

 

[wannabee]

2) Do a few Mocks to see what happens if you take a QB early vs. wait. I'll wager that one of the outcomes you'll like more than the other. This way you can rely on your personal preference and plan accordingly for the draft.

GB a very In my opinion if you aren't doing this already, you aren't preparing adequately for your league. Don't take this wrong, it is fun to sit around and talk FF about stuff like how early to take a QB... but you should never have to ask what you're asking in this thread. You should have found out the consequences in your draft preparation by actually trying it while doing mocks. No strategy or method (VBD, DVBD) can ever take into account everything you should consider. The only way to take everything into account is to have done it before and have a good feel for the consequences of each decision.

My on it anyway. YMMV.

Great advice. I usually do mock draft but it is especially difficult to find anyone to seriously pair with in a 16 team mock. If you can point me in the right direction, that would be appreciated.

My advice would be to run the mocks on the Draft Dominator. I usually run up to 50 mocks per league using different scenarios. I do not know how familiar you are with the DD, but I drafts using ADP for the other owners, allowing you to make your team's picks.

 

[ookook]

I am drafting in a 12 team, 6pt per pass TD league right now and I fully intend to not take a QB until rounds 7 to 9.

So for 16 team, subtract a round and hold off until rounds 6 to 8.

Instead, get a better 3rd RB or another good WR.

Just my two cents.

 

[Mungo Burrows]

I have almost always waited on QB until later in the draft but I read something on this board yesterday about QB getting 6 points for TDs that is making me rethink that strategy.16 team league. 1QB/1RB/2WR/1TE/1Flex/K/DQBs get 1 per 20 passing 6 for TDsI think it was Evilgrin who posted that he thought that in this type of scoring format that a top tier QB is more important than the typical formats. It was an afterthought in his post but I thought it might warrant more discussion. Especially in a league this large, it is not really possible to go with a 3 QBBC so getting the right two is usually pretty difficult. I'm thinking of drafting a QB closer to the 4th or 5th rather than the 8th or 9th.What do you say?

Actually with 16 teams and only 1 required RB (and one flex) going QB a bit earlier than you normally see in other leagues might make some sense. It's usually the 2 required running backs that skew leagues that way so much. You'll still probably want to use a RB in that flex most times, but with 16 starting QBs every week and probably only mid-20s starting Rbs, the disparity is not nearly so great as most 1Q/2RB or worse yet 1Q/2Rb/1flex leagues.On the other hand, unless you really think you're getting an elite player at a good value (manning, a healthy palmer) don't overpay at the position. there does not appear to be that much difference in expectations between a QB5-QB10 guy like Bulger and a QB getting drafted in the mid-teens like Roethlisberger, Brooks and the like.

 

[HULLOBUDMAN]

Look at thet dropoff between your QB8 and QB16 and what does it tell you?

(Note that 6pt TD passes changes this LITTLE).

1. 1. Palmer, Carson CIN QB 356 2. 4. Brady, Tom NEP QB 329

3. 6. Manning, Peyton IND QB 327

4. 10. Hasselbeck, Matt SEA QB 301

5. 11. Manning, Eli NYG QB 299

6. 13. Brees, Drew NOS QB 284

7. 16. Bledsoe, Drew DAL QB 277

8. 17. Collins, Kerry FA QB 277

9. 18. Green, Trent KCC QB 277

10. 20. Plummer, Jake DEN QB 272

11. 21. Delhomme, Jake CAR QB 271

12. 24. Brunell, Mark WAS QB 260

13. 27. Vick, Michael ATL QB 258

14. 31. Favre, Brett GBP QB 237

15. 32. McNair, Steve TEN QB 234

16. 38. Frerotte, Gus STL QB 219

Dropoff from 8 to 16 is 58 points or 3.63 per game.

The dropoff from 24th WR vs 32nd WR is 40 points 2.5 per game.

The dropoff from the 24th RB and 32nd RB is 31 points or 1.94 per game.

Maybe I am looking at the wrong dropoffs here but that tells me QB is more important in this format. Please let me know where I am going wrong here.

 

[HULLOBUDMAN]

2) Do a few Mocks to see what happens if you take a QB early vs. wait. I'll wager that one of the outcomes you'll like more than the other. This way you can rely on your personal preference and plan accordingly for the draft.

GB a very In my opinion if you aren't doing this already, you aren't preparing adequately for your league. Don't take this wrong, it is fun to sit around and talk FF about stuff like how early to take a QB... but you should never have to ask what you're asking in this thread. You should have found out the consequences in your draft preparation by actually trying it while doing mocks. No strategy or method (VBD, DVBD) can ever take into account everything you should consider. The only way to take everything into account is to have done it before and have a good feel for the consequences of each decision.

My on it anyway. YMMV.

Great advice. I usually do mock draft but it is especially difficult to find anyone to seriously pair with in a 16 team mock. If you can point me in the right direction, that would be appreciated.

My advice would be to run the mocks on the Draft Dominator. I usually run up to 50 mocks per league using different scenarios. I do not know how familiar you are with the DD, but I drafts using ADP for the other owners, allowing you to make your team's picks.

I have been using the DD since it's inception and for some reason when I mock on it, it just never seems "right".

 

[Wingnut]

Ill try to be persuasive here...

DON'T DO IT!!!!!

 

[HULLOBUDMAN]

I have almost always waited on QB until later in the draft but I read something on this board yesterday about QB getting 6 points for TDs that is making me rethink that strategy.

16 team league. 1QB/1RB/2WR/1TE/1Flex/K/D

QBs get 1 per 20 passing 6 for TDs

I think it was Evilgrin who posted that he thought that in this type of scoring format that a top tier QB is more important than the typical formats. It was an afterthought in his post but I thought it might warrant more discussion. Especially in a league this large, it is not really possible to go with a 3 QBBC so getting the right two is usually pretty difficult. I'm thinking of drafting a QB closer to the 4th or 5th rather than the 8th or 9th.

What do you say?

Actually with 16 teams and only 1 required RB (and one flex) going QB a bit earlier than you normally see in other leagues might make some sense. It's usually the 2 required running backs that skew leagues that way so much. You'll still probably want to use a RB in that flex most times, but with 16 starting QBs every week and probably only mid-20s starting Rbs, the disparity is not nearly so great as most 1Q/2RB or worse yet 1Q/2Rb/1flex leagues.On the other hand, unless you really think you're getting an elite player at a good value (manning, a healthy palmer) don't overpay at the position. there does not appear to be that much difference in expectations between a QB5-QB10 guy like Bulger and a QB getting drafted in the mid-teens like Roethlisberger, Brooks and the like.

Thanks. Maybe people are not taking into account the starting lineup requirements. Maybe they are not taking into account the large league size. Maybe I am way off base here. I am not looking to draft QB in the first 3 rounds. Considering in the 3rd or 4th. I did win my league last year by starting 1 rb and 3 wr most of the year. I took the Priest/LJ combo in the 1st and 5th. Gates in the 2nd. Hit on Galloway and Engram came up huge for me as a late round flyer. Again, thanks everyone for the feedback.

Edited to add: I agree the projections to not show too much of a difference between 8 and 16 but historical data shows a much larger dispairity.

2004 75 4.63 ppg

2003 67 4.19 ppg

2002 65 4.06 ppg

 

[Wingnut]

I have almost always waited on QB until later in the draft but I read something on this board yesterday about QB getting 6 points for TDs that is making me rethink that strategy.

16 team league. 1QB/1RB/2WR/1TE/1Flex/K/D

QBs get 1 per 20 passing 6 for TDs

I think it was Evilgrin who posted that he thought that in this type of scoring format that a top tier QB is more important than the typical formats. It was an afterthought in his post but I thought it might warrant more discussion. Especially in a league this large, it is not really possible to go with a 3 QBBC so getting the right two is usually pretty difficult. I'm thinking of drafting a QB closer to the 4th or 5th rather than the 8th or 9th.

What do you say?

I also play in a 6pt for TD pass league.First of all, how long have you been in the league, and have you had any new owners recently?? This is important. Also, do you know what pick you have, and is it a serpentine, auction, or what???

Second of all, do you have a copy of the last few years drafts??? I always make a draft sheet with me to the draft and fill it in as the draft goes so Ill have it to prepare for next year. I actually have my leagues last 8 draftsheets, so I can take any sample size I need.

If you have this info, you can look back on the last few drafts and project how many at each position will be taken by each of your picks.

So, I have pick #1 this year. Looking at the past 3 years, I know that by these picks, approx. this many of each position will be taken by each of my picks. Ill show you what I mean:

quarterbacks (serpentine draft. swing picks every other round)

round - '04 - '04 - '05

Rnd 2/3: 5 - 2 - 2

Rnd 4/5: 10 - 6 - 5

Rnd 6/7: 15 - 12 - 9

Rnd 7/8: 17 - 13 - 11

So, the last few years has seen a drop in the number of QBs taken early, or a rise in the number of teams who wait longer to take a QB....Info like this is priceless if you have it. I know I can pretty much wait till wound 6 to get a QB if my league tendencies continue, and Ill still get a top 7-8 QB, or I know if I want a top 5 guy I should wait no longer than my swing picks in rounds 4/5.

If you dont have any past draft info, this year you should start. You wouldnt believe how much it helps.

 

[HULLOBUDMAN]

I have almost always waited on QB until later in the draft but I read something on this board yesterday about QB getting 6 points for TDs that is making me rethink that strategy.

16 team league. 1QB/1RB/2WR/1TE/1Flex/K/D

QBs get 1 per 20 passing 6 for TDs

I think it was Evilgrin who posted that he thought that in this type of scoring format that a top tier QB is more important than the typical formats. It was an afterthought in his post but I thought it might warrant more discussion. Especially in a league this large, it is not really possible to go with a 3 QBBC so getting the right two is usually pretty difficult. I'm thinking of drafting a QB closer to the 4th or 5th rather than the 8th or 9th.

What do you say?

I also play in a 6pt for TD pass league.First of all, how long have you been in the league, and have you had any new owners recently?? This is important. Also, do you know what pick you have, and is it a serpentine, auction, or what???

Second of all, do you have a copy of the last few years drafts??? I always make a draft sheet with me to the draft and fill it in as the draft goes so Ill have it to prepare for next year. I actually have my leagues last 8 draftsheets, so I can take any sample size I need.

If you have this info, you can look back on the last few drafts and project how many at each position will be taken by each of your picks.

So, I have pick #1 this year. Looking at the past 3 years, I know that by these picks, approx. this many of each position will be taken by each of my picks. Ill show you what I mean:

quarterbacks (serpentine draft. swing picks every other round)

round - '04 - '04 - '05

Rnd 2/3: 5 - 2 - 2

Rnd 4/5: 10 - 6 - 5

Rnd 6/7: 15 - 12 - 9

Rnd 7/8: 17 - 13 - 11

So, the last few years has seen a drop in the number of QBs taken early, or a rise in the number of teams who wait longer to take a QB....Info like this is priceless if you have it. I know I can pretty much wait till wound 6 to get a QB if my league tendencies continue, and Ill still get a top 7-8 QB, or I know if I want a top 5 guy I should wait no longer than my swing picks in rounds 4/5.

If you dont have any past draft info, this year you should start. You wouldnt believe how much it helps.

This league had been a 12 team league until 3 years ago. At that time it became a 16 team league. The draft tendencies stayed away from QBs the first year but the next 2 years, the amount of QBs drafted early has increased each year. The league is in it's 11th year. 11 or the 12 original owners are still in it. the other 4 owners have been in it for 3 years now. From what I saw tendencies are beginning to change. People realize you don't need 2 backs to win this league. It is becoming more and more difficult because people are changing (which is why we went to this format in the first place).

I'm glad some of the active message board guys(such as yourself) have checked in on this one. I mostly lurk on this board and have for years so I can appreciate people like Mungo, Wingnut, Wannabee, HK's opinions. (sorry if I left any out.).

Thanks for helping me think through this one.

 

[Chase Stuart]

I say Philip Rivers.

 

[Wingnut]

This league had been a 12 team league until 3 years ago. At that time it became a 16 team league. The draft tendencies stayed away from QBs the first year but the next 2 years, the amount of QBs drafted early has increased each year.

The league is in it's 11th year. 11 or the 12 original owners are still in it. the other 4 owners have been in it for 3 years now. From what I saw tendencies are beginning to change. People realize you don't need 2 backs to win this league. It is becoming more and more difficult because people are changing (which is why we went to this format in the first place).

I'm glad some of the active message board guys(such as yourself) have checked in on this one. I mostly lurk on this board and have for years so I can appreciate people like Mungo, Wingnut, Wannabee, HK's opinions. (sorry if I left any out.).

Thanks for helping me think through this one.

Well I really didnt give you any advice on whether or not you should take one earlier, but more of an idea of how to figure out the best time to take one based on your preference and past league history...I for one have taken QBs early and late, and Ive always liked the results better if I wait a bit, but not TOO late. Last year I hit the jackpot with Palmer as the 10th QB off the board, but usually I grab one after 5-8 are off the board, and am usually pleased with the result (barring injuries).

Like others have said, do some mocks and see what youd be looking at, and decide on what youd be happy with. G'luck.

 

[Mungo Burrows]

I have almost always waited on QB until later in the draft but I read something on this board yesterday about QB getting 6 points for TDs that is making me rethink that strategy.

16 team league. 1QB/1RB/2WR/1TE/1Flex/K/D

QBs get 1 per 20 passing 6 for TDs

I think it was Evilgrin who posted that he thought that in this type of scoring format that a top tier QB is more important than the typical formats. It was an afterthought in his post but I thought it might warrant more discussion. Especially in a league this large, it is not really possible to go with a 3 QBBC so getting the right two is usually pretty difficult. I'm thinking of drafting a QB closer to the 4th or 5th rather than the 8th or 9th.

What do you say?

I also play in a 6pt for TD pass league.First of all, how long have you been in the league, and have you had any new owners recently?? This is important. Also, do you know what pick you have, and is it a serpentine, auction, or what???

Second of all, do you have a copy of the last few years drafts??? I always make a draft sheet with me to the draft and fill it in as the draft goes so Ill have it to prepare for next year. I actually have my leagues last 8 draftsheets, so I can take any sample size I need.

If you have this info, you can look back on the last few drafts and project how many at each position will be taken by each of your picks.

So, I have pick #1 this year. Looking at the past 3 years, I know that by these picks, approx. this many of each position will be taken by each of my picks. Ill show you what I mean:

quarterbacks (serpentine draft. swing picks every other round)

round - '04 - '04 - '05

Rnd 2/3: 5 - 2 - 2

Rnd 4/5: 10 - 6 - 5

Rnd 6/7: 15 - 12 - 9

Rnd 7/8: 17 - 13 - 11

So, the last few years has seen a drop in the number of QBs taken early, or a rise in the number of teams who wait longer to take a QB....Info like this is priceless if you have it. I know I can pretty much wait till wound 6 to get a QB if my league tendencies continue, and Ill still get a top 7-8 QB, or I know if I want a top 5 guy I should wait no longer than my swing picks in rounds 4/5.

If you dont have any past draft info, this year you should start. You wouldnt believe how much it helps.

I do this as well. i have every draft pick in the league since 1999 in a spreadsheet with graphs tracking picks by position each year.

My league rules and rosters are very different from your "normal" league and my league-mates drafting tendencies have been farily consistent so ADP doesn't really help me as much as this type of data does. (Of course last year they changed to a more RB-heavy approach leaving me scrambling, but that happens)

The point is that ADP is a tool and it can be very helpful, but you have to understand its limitations. It's better to have a fairly good idea of who will be picked in your draft than it is to have a really good idea of who was picked in some other drafts.

 

[wannabee]

I play in a 14 and 16 team redraft leagues, and have for several years. THe hard thing to quantify is how the other owners will draft. Our leagues start 1 qb, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 K, and 1 D and all pass TDs are 6 points and is TD heavy scoring. Each year, there are 3-5 QBs taken in the first round. In my opinion, in my league, you either have to get Manning, or wait. The teams that get trounced are the ones that get an QB5-10 in round two. Last year I was able to get Palmer at 5.01 in the 16 teamer. I remember trying to decide between Palmer and Collins.

As you can imagine, the RBs go fast and furious with this scoring and lineup rules. I would say that only you have a feeling how your league drafts and that is why the DD does not come out like you think it should.

The one thing I do in these league to prepare is to identify a couple QBs and WRs in each round that would be a great value at my pick. If they are gone, I take the best RB on my board. I know this sounds backward (because I use DD, too), but this method seems to work for me in this league.

 

[HULLOBUDMAN]

I play in a 14 and 16 team redraft leagues, and have for several years. THe hard thing to quantify is how the other owners will draft. Our leagues start 1 qb, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 K, and 1 D and all pass TDs are 6 points and is TD heavy scoring. Each year, there are 3-5 QBs taken in the first round. In my opinion, in my league, you either have to get Manning, or wait. The teams that get trounced are the ones that get an QB5-10 in round two. Last year I was able to get Palmer at 5.01 in the 16 teamer. I remember trying to decide between Palmer and Collins.

As you can imagine, the RBs go fast and furious with this scoring and lineup rules. I would say that only you have a feeling how your league drafts and that is why the DD does not come out like you think it should.

The one thing I do in these league to prepare is to identify a couple QBs and WRs in each round that would be a great value at my pick. If they are gone, I take the best RB on my board. I know this sounds backward (because I use DD, too), but this method seems to work for me in this league.

Do you have somewhere you pull your 16 team ADP from specifically or do you convert the tradtional 12 man ADP to a 16 teamer? Once again, I find it difficult to find usefull 16 team mocks and ADP.

 

[bueno]

I am drafting in a 12 team, 6pt per pass TD league right now and I fully intend to not take a QB until rounds 7 to 9.

So for 16 team, subtract a round and hold off until rounds 6 to 8.

Instead, get a better 3rd RB or another good WR.

Just my two cents.

Be careful. Your league mates are lurking here!

 

[HULLOBUDMAN]

I say Philip Rivers.

I knew it would be one of the staff members that would contribute the most useful post in this thread!Thanks Chase!

 

[wannabee]

I play in a 14 and 16 team redraft leagues, and have for several years.  THe hard thing to quantify is how the other owners will draft.  Our leagues start 1 qb, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 K, and 1 D and all pass TDs are 6 points and is TD heavy scoring.  Each year, there are 3-5 QBs taken in the first round.  In my opinion, in my league, you either have to get Manning, or wait.  The teams that get trounced are the ones that get an QB5-10 in round two.  Last year I was able to get Palmer at 5.01 in the 16 teamer.  I remember trying to decide between Palmer and Collins. 

As you can imagine, the RBs go fast and furious with this scoring and lineup rules.  I would say that only you have a feeling how your league drafts and that is why the DD does not come out like you think it should. 

The one thing I do in these league to prepare is to identify a couple QBs and WRs in each round that would be a great value at my pick.  If they are gone, I take the best RB on my board.  I know this sounds backward (because I use DD, too), but this method seems to work for me in this league.

Do you have somewhere you pull your 16 team ADP from specifically or do you convert the tradtional 12 man ADP to a 16 teamer? Once again, I find it difficult to find usefull 16 team mocks and ADP.

I convert it and fudge the math from knowledge of the league

 

[HULLOBUDMAN]

I play in a 14 and 16 team redraft leagues, and have for several years.  THe hard thing to quantify is how the other owners will draft.  Our leagues start 1 qb, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 K, and 1 D and all pass TDs are 6 points and is TD heavy scoring.  Each year, there are 3-5 QBs taken in the first round.  In my opinion, in my league, you either have to get Manning, or wait.  The teams that get trounced are the ones that get an QB5-10 in round two.  Last year I was able to get Palmer at 5.01 in the 16 teamer.  I remember trying to decide between Palmer and Collins. 

As you can imagine, the RBs go fast and furious with this scoring and lineup rules.  I would say that only you have a feeling how your league drafts and that is why the DD does not come out like you think it should. 

The one thing I do in these league to prepare is to identify a couple QBs and WRs in each round that would be a great value at my pick.  If they are gone, I take the best RB on my board.   I know this sounds backward (because I use DD, too), but this method seems to work for me in this league.

Do you have somewhere you pull your 16 team ADP from specifically or do you convert the tradtional 12 man ADP to a 16 teamer? Once again, I find it difficult to find usefull 16 team mocks and ADP.

I convert it and fudge the math from knowledge of the league

Damn you! You can always PM me with your real sources if you won't post them here.

 

[wannabee]

I play in a 14 and 16 team redraft leagues, and have for several years.  THe hard thing to quantify is how the other owners will draft.  Our leagues start 1 qb, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 K, and 1 D and all pass TDs are 6 points and is TD heavy scoring.  Each year, there are 3-5 QBs taken in the first round.  In my opinion, in my league, you either have to get Manning, or wait.  The teams that get trounced are the ones that get an QB5-10 in round two.  Last year I was able to get Palmer at 5.01 in the 16 teamer.  I remember trying to decide between Palmer and Collins. 

As you can imagine, the RBs go fast and furious with this scoring and lineup rules.  I would say that only you have a feeling how your league drafts and that is why the DD does not come out like you think it should. 

The one thing I do in these league to prepare is to identify a couple QBs and WRs in each round that would be a great value at my pick.  If they are gone, I take the best RB on my board.   I know this sounds backward (because I use DD, too), but this method seems to work for me in this league.

Do you have somewhere you pull your 16 team ADP from specifically or do you convert the tradtional 12 man ADP to a 16 teamer? Once again, I find it difficult to find usefull 16 team mocks and ADP.

I convert it and fudge the math from knowledge of the league

Damn you! You can always PM me with your real sources if you won't post them here.

These draft on Labor Day weekend. if your draft is after that, I will be happy to send you the drafts.

 

[HULLOBUDMAN]

IThese draft on Labor Day weekend. if your draft is after that, I will be happy to send you the drafts.

This league actually drafts the Saturday after the Thursday games. Please do forward it on. I will have drafted in all my 12 man leagues by then and will have most of my research done by Labor Day but your actual drafts may help me clear some of the ?s in my mind.

I appreciate it.

 

[wannabee]

IThese draft on Labor Day weekend. if your draft is after that, I will be happy to send you the drafts.

This league actually drafts the Saturday after the Thursday games. Please do forward it on. I will have drafted in all my 12 man leagues by then and will have most of my research done by Labor Day but your actual drafts may help me clear some of the ?s in my mind.

I appreciate it.

please shoot me a pm then to remind me. I do the drafts on DD and would be easy to email

 

[eoMMan]

I'm in a 10 team league where all TD's (including passing) are 6 points and it usually makes sense to wait for you QB. The only years it really paid off was Manning's monster year 2 years ago and back when Warner has those couple of crazy years. It's usually better to wait, though.

I agree with the suggestion of doing some mock drafts.

 

[mbuehner]

The format certainly favors a QB, but I would be inclined to wait because there are several 2nd/3rd tier QBs i really like, while after Manning and Palmer the next few seem uncertain to me.

If it were me, i'd only take Manning or Palmer if i was at the turn, or with my 2nd. What you dont want is Warrick Dunn as your #1 RB in a 1 RB league.

If you miss on the big 2, you gotta figure with 16 teams some jackass is going to take Vick (who is awful in this format) which leave 13 teams one of which is you.

I dont want Brooks or Roethlisberger, but everybody else of the remaining 11 I could probably live with. Of those 11 there are 5 in the 2nd tier (Brady, Hassle, Eli, Bulger and McNabb) that could go in about any order, then the third tier 6 (Bledsoe, Delhomme, Plummer, Green, Favre, Culp) that could go in any order. Assuming things go worse case scenario the odds of 12 teams taking the 11 guys I like is pretty small. Personally i'm high on Bledsoe and Culpepper so if it starts getting down to the nitty gritty i would probably grab one of those two rather than gambling getting stuck with somebody out of my confort zone. But if they were taken too early and i had to gamble with Favre or Green being gone i would probably roll the dice. If i was blazing at every other position and had to splatter the wall for a QB because everybody else jumped the gun, so be it. You dont need a lot of depth so #2 QBs should be even easier to stockpile late in the draft if you got your other positions strong early. You might have a Warner/Kitna type thing that has a huge upside, and thats very worst case scenario.

 

[The Jerk]

Bud man,

I'm not interested in talking you out of it. I believe you should look for good value in every round at every position. If a QB represents a better value than a RB or WR as early as round 4, then I'd look hard at it (excepting Manning, who you can look for earlier).

I've not played in any league larger than 12, so the potential has always been there to wait into rounds 7-9 and take the 13th or so QB drafted. If I also quickly take a backup, I'll end up with two of the two 15-16 QBs, of which one typically performs somewhere between #6 and #10 among all QBs for the year. (Or last year, picking Hasselbeck in the 7th gave me top 5 performance.) The dynamics of a 16-team league make this strategy much more problematic. You might be selecting the 18th and 20th QBs and the outlook is not as promising.

I think there is some legitimacy to the argument of drafting a QB later, as I have had much success with that approach. However, it's hard to distinguish whether or not the success is due to waiting on a QB or to having superior drafting techniques, preparation and information. It very likely is a little of both.

Bottom line is you can draft a good FF team many ways, so you need to trust your instincts and know your league: number of owners, roster size, lineups, drafting tendencies, etc.

Edited for more detail

 

[GregR_2]

Great advice. I usually do mock draft but it is especially difficult to find anyone to seriously pair with in a 16 team mock. If you can point me in the right direction, that would be appreciated.

My advice would be to run the mocks on the Draft Dominator. I usually run up to 50 mocks per league using different scenarios. I do not know how familiar you are with the DD, but I drafts using ADP for the other owners, allowing you to make your team's picks.

I have been using the DD since it's inception and for some reason when I mock on it, it just never seems "right".

I would have suggested DD as well. You could also try mock drafts at antsports though I don't know if they have 16 team mocks or not.If what you're seeing in DD isn't matching what you think it would be, I would just do it myself by hand if need be. That's what I've done before DD came around. Each pick I look at that team and make my best choice for them I can. I figure if nothing else this gives me a worst case since everyone is taking players in the order I believe they should go.

Though if I know other team's tendencies I'd try to follow them. I mean, I want it to be as realistic as possible, but if I'm not sure, I'd err with taking the player I think is that team's best pick there, and then keep in mind I may get better options than my mock gave me.

 

[HULLOBUDMAN]

Great advice. I usually do mock draft but it is especially difficult to find anyone to seriously pair with in a 16 team mock. If you can point me in the right direction, that would be appreciated.

My advice would be to run the mocks on the Draft Dominator. I usually run up to 50 mocks per league using different scenarios. I do not know how familiar you are with the DD, but I drafts using ADP for the other owners, allowing you to make your team's picks.

I have been using the DD since it's inception and for some reason when I mock on it, it just never seems "right".

I would have suggested DD as well. You could also try mock drafts at antsports though I don't know if they have 16 team mocks or not.If what you're seeing in DD isn't matching what you think it would be, I would just do it myself by hand if need be. That's what I've done before DD came around. Each pick I look at that team and make my best choice for them I can. I figure if nothing else this gives me a worst case since everyone is taking players in the order I believe they should go.

Though if I know other team's tendencies I'd try to follow them. I mean, I want it to be as realistic as possible, but if I'm not sure, I'd err with taking the player I think is that team's best pick there, and then keep in mind I may get better options than my mock gave me.

Probably the best idea I've heard so far. Maybe draft me squad according to my rankings while using a combo of ADP and VBD straight from the FBG rankings along with my knowledge of how certain usually draft. It would take a lot of time and I think I would have to run 2 copies of the DD side by side but that may work.

 

[inca911]

1. 1. Palmer, Carson CIN QB 356

2. 4. Brady, Tom NEP QB 329

3. 6. Manning, Peyton IND QB 327

4. 10. Hasselbeck, Matt SEA QB 301

5. 11. Manning, Eli NYG QB 299

6. 13. Brees, Drew NOS QB 284

7. 16. Bledsoe, Drew DAL QB 277

8. 17. Collins, Kerry FA QB 277

9. 18. Green, Trent KCC QB 277

10. 20. Plummer, Jake DEN QB 272

11. 21. Delhomme, Jake CAR QB 271

12. 24. Brunell, Mark WAS QB 260

13. 27. Vick, Michael ATL QB 258

14. 31. Favre, Brett GBP QB 237

15. 32. McNair, Steve TEN QB 234

16. 38. Frerotte, Gus STL QB 219

6 point TDs make a negligible difference comparing across the QB pool. Top QBs throwing 25 TDs per year are gaining a few points over those lesser QBs throwing 15 TDs per year. 10 more TDs at 2 additional points per TD equates to only 20 total points for a year. As you spread these 20 points over 16 games, you're clearly not gaining much value due to the scoring change. In a league without flex positions, this QB scoring change doesn't alter the value of QBs against other positions.Your league, however, does have one flex position, so 6 point TDs will give a top QB 50 more points vs. other positions, and a lesser QB will gain 30 points. You'll need to do the math within your scoring system to see if getting a better QB for your flex position makes a difference. Only because of the flex position is there a chance that this change makes it getting a better flex QB worthwhile.

 

[David Yudkin]

16. 38. Frerotte, Gus STL QB 219

I don't even want to know . . .

 

[Chase Stuart]

16. 38. Frerotte, Gus STL QB 219

I don't even want to know . . .

That's just a list showing last year's stats with this year's team. Don't sweat that one.

 

[videoguy505]

Look at thet dropoff between your QB8 and QB16 and what does it tell you?

(Note that 6pt TD passes changes this LITTLE).

1. 1. Palmer, Carson CIN QB 356 2. 4. Brady, Tom NEP QB 329

3. 6. Manning, Peyton IND QB 327

4. 10. Hasselbeck, Matt SEA QB 301

5. 11. Manning, Eli NYG QB 299

6. 13. Brees, Drew NOS QB 284

7. 16. Bledsoe, Drew DAL QB 277

8. 17. Collins, Kerry FA QB 277

9. 18. Green, Trent KCC QB 277

10. 20. Plummer, Jake DEN QB 272

11. 21. Delhomme, Jake CAR QB 271

12. 24. Brunell, Mark WAS QB 260

13. 27. Vick, Michael ATL QB 258

14. 31. Favre, Brett GBP QB 237

15. 32. McNair, Steve TEN QB 234

16. 38. Frerotte, Gus STL QB 219

Dropoff from 8 to 16 is 58 points or 3.63 per game.

The dropoff from 24th WR vs 32nd WR is 40 points 2.5 per game.

The dropoff from the 24th RB and 32nd RB is 31 points or 1.94 per game.

Maybe I am looking at the wrong dropoffs here but that tells me QB is more important in this format. Please let me know where I am going wrong here.

Seems like you can't wait for QB16, unless you want to go QBBC, but "early" might not be correct. "Earlier than normal" could be, however. Seems like as long as you get someone in the 6-13 range you won't get too hurt. I think that's the tier to target--you can still grab some elite RBs and WRs and hold off on QB until Eli goes, then figure out the dropoff in QBs until your next pick comes around.

 

[Chase Stuart]

I say Philip Rivers.

I knew it would be one of the staff members that would contribute the most useful post in this thread!Thanks Chase!

I know you're being sarcastic but it's actually the truth. It's very rare that the collect fantasy market is off on a player. But I think it's happening with Rivers. And since you only start 1 QB, that changes your whole strategy.

 

[HULLOBUDMAN]

16. 38. Frerotte, Gus STL QB 219

I don't even want to know . . .

seems I am a huge fan of the staff today....David,

I would love to hear some input from you on this.

 

[David Yudkin]

16. 38. Frerotte, Gus STL QB 219

I don't even want to know . . .

seems I am a huge fan of the staff today....David,

I would love to hear some input from you on this.

I thought that Frerotte was someone's #16 ranked QB THIS year playing for STL. I didn't realize we we talking about LAST year's numbers.

 

[HULLOBUDMAN]

16. 38. Frerotte, Gus STL QB 219

I don't even want to know . . .

seems I am a huge fan of the staff today....David,

I would love to hear some input from you on this.

I thought that Frerotte was someone's #16 ranked QB THIS year playing for STL. I didn't realize we we talking about LAST year's numbers.

Actually, input about taking a QB in 4th or 5th instead of waiting in this scoring and league size. I understand that you thought those were rankings not last year's actual stats.

 

[Liquid Tension]

In a six point per TD league, QB obviously is more important.  I still wouldn't grab a QB (except Manning) until at least the third round, and then only if your other owners are wise to the fact.  Where will QBs be drafted on average in your league?  Why pick up a Bulger in the third if you can get him in the 5th?  Play to your opponents weaknesses.

I appreciate your input.Have you ever played in a league so large? Last year by the end of the 5th there were 8 QBs taken. One owner actually ended up with 2 top 10 ranked QBs in the 7th by the time I picked my first.

Also, I was thinking about the 4th or 5th as stated in my first post so I guess we kind of agree here, although Bulger will most likely not be available on the 5th.

Thanks again.

I started the thread about why Manning should be picked in the top 10 of a 6 pt TD league. Normally when you have so many teams the RB's take even more priority, but with you only starting 1 RB and 2 WR's (and the flex) the WR's actually take on a higher priority in the 1st round. Not sure where you pick but after the 1st 4-5 picks I would all over the Chad Johnson's, Steve Smiths, Torry Holts of the world and the I think Manning and Manning alone is worthy of a pick from 10-15. If you don't get Manning wait until the 50's to get your QB and if the next handful are gone wait some more.Good luck

 

[Gr00vus]

This is purely anecdotal, but one of the leagues I play in (which has been around for about 15 years and is very competitive/knowledgable) is very similar to the one you're looking at. In that league people start drafting their second quarterbacks starting in round 5. The top three or more qbs always go in round one. No kidding. The worst part is you can't afford to wait to analyze trends in different rounds of the draft and react, because if they happen while you're on the outside of the snake you're looking at trying to run a comittee of qbs from the guys ranked 20 and lower. Run that comittee badly and you're really behind the eight ball in comparison to teams who've got solid starters at qb.

In that league I don't usually start thinking about qb until round 4 (unless there's a screaming bargain, like the one year I took Hasselbeck in round 3 and he indeed lit it up). I ususaly have targeted guys in what ADPs around the web and other places have in the 16-30 range that I think are underrated and take whoever's at the top of my list still available at that point and probably do the same the next round or the one after that. Last year it didn't work out so well because everybody got hurt (another reason in that kind of league you need to take a qb much earlier and more often than you would in others, because there isn't going to be much on the waiver wire), but while he played Lefty, our 4th round pick, was doing just fine.

Like I said, it's anecdotal, this league I'm in may be outside the norm, but with your scoring and roster requirements I don't think it's going to be too far off the mark for your purposes. My advice would be run some mocks (as said before) and see what you think will be htere for you in rounds 4/5 - can you live with it or not? If not adjust your strategy and move up your target qb round accordingly. But I doubt you're going to be happy with your qb situation if you sleep on it past round 5 unless you've got some kind of time machine or are extremely lucky.

That said, like Chase already mentioned, a guy I'll be targeting down in the lower half of the qb ADPs this year is Philip Rivers.

Best of Luck!