Anarchy99
Footballguy
I keep hearing that the "master plan" from last year was really not expected to pay dividends until this year, as it was supposedly expected for the new faces to start to gel and come together in Year 2. The other component to this was to be in position to capitalize on Mac's rookie deal in years 3-5 of his contract. (To be clear, that is the narrative as being conveyed through the media, not something that I believe in or am concocting.) By definition, that means 2022 is another building block year. I somewhat can but into some of this, as they were still riding the Cam train up until the start of the season last year. Lots of trial by fire to get things to work together. Part of the reason I don't really buy in totally is they played great in the middle of the season and then fell apart.
As much as fans love splashy free agent signings, they generally don't pan out anywhere near as well as people think they do. There are now multiple advanced analytic sites that measure player performance and value. As I pointed out earlier, the Pats took a bath on production per dollar from some of their FA signings last year. The LAST THING people should want them to do is repeat that strategy again this year. I still think paying $15M for a player that delivers $5M in on-field is way worse than not having that $15M player at all and playing low dollar, average players instead. At least you would have more money to distribute at other positions.
The team(s) that end up being very competitive are the ones that get the most value from their players. If a team is loaded on under market players who produce top of the market value, those teams can afford to throw around big value contracts as their base production is already bought and paid for (the Rams say hi).
NE at this point has a very bad combination. Not enough low dollar players delivering high dollar production, and many high dollar players delivering below average production. Mac was such a steal on a value proposition that he covered up a lot of very poor signings. Hightower was a complete was given how much they paid. Big contract mixed with way below average production is what kills teams.
Looking at individual position groups . . .
What I don't get is how the AFC as a whole has way stronger teams now than all those years in the Brady era. If the AFC had been that good all along, NE wouldn't have won anywhere near as much as they did.
As much as fans love splashy free agent signings, they generally don't pan out anywhere near as well as people think they do. There are now multiple advanced analytic sites that measure player performance and value. As I pointed out earlier, the Pats took a bath on production per dollar from some of their FA signings last year. The LAST THING people should want them to do is repeat that strategy again this year. I still think paying $15M for a player that delivers $5M in on-field is way worse than not having that $15M player at all and playing low dollar, average players instead. At least you would have more money to distribute at other positions.
The team(s) that end up being very competitive are the ones that get the most value from their players. If a team is loaded on under market players who produce top of the market value, those teams can afford to throw around big value contracts as their base production is already bought and paid for (the Rams say hi).
NE at this point has a very bad combination. Not enough low dollar players delivering high dollar production, and many high dollar players delivering below average production. Mac was such a steal on a value proposition that he covered up a lot of very poor signings. Hightower was a complete was given how much they paid. Big contract mixed with way below average production is what kills teams.
Looking at individual position groups . . .
Not sure why or what people saw, but I am seeing a lot of talent evaluators and scouts within the league suggesting Jones really has a weak arm. They said he makes accurate throws, but defenders have a chance to get back into plays because he has not zip on the ball. The injury argument for me, while valid, applies to all 32 teams. No organization can sustain multiple injuries to the same position group and be expected to be very good. IMO, the concept of "more weapons" is more of a luxury than a necessity based on other team needs.QB-I love Mac and he should be one that takes that leap...that being said they have done absolutely nothing to help him out so far this offseason...add an injury or two to a Henry, Bourne or Meyer and their weapons could be beyond dreadful...not giving Mac more weapons is easily my #1 gripe because his development is by far the most important thing this year...if he develops, they have a future.
I have a different perspective here. The RBs are highly dependent on the OL. If the line is good (certainly now a question and concern when it maybe wasn't before), the RBs will be good. If White is healthy (that's not a given), he would really help on third downs (the other guys weren't in his league in that role last year).RB-Best unit on the team. just hope the D is could enough to be able to maximize their strengths.
They are no worse off than they were last year. Was the offense a joke last year? They were 6th in the league in scoring last season. They will do what they always do. They'll find an injured vet looking to rehab his value after an injury. They'll invite a guy that got cut from another team. They'll throw a dart in the draft on a developmental guy. They'll toy with some practice squad options. They'll be different options than what they have now . . . and none of them will move the needle much at all. I still see lots of drafts with NE taking a WR at 21. Still don't see it happening. The solution here is get more out of Agholor. They have to pay him anyway. As I already mentioned, get Bourne 2 more targets a game and he easily puts up WR1 numbers. And how is Harry still a member of the Patriots? LOL at the "teams are interested in Harry" reporting. What's his value? A compensatory 7th round pick?WR-subpar group and while I like Meyer and Bourne it is pushing it to count on them to take a big leap...Agholor could be better, but I don't see it being much better...if they don't add another quality WR (or two) either in the draft or free agency it will be a joke.
Henry was ok but not worth the money. Jonnu was a total waste last year and REALLY not worth the money. I put that on the coaches. I went back and watched some film of Smith on the Titans. He had many electric plays, many of them on simple routes. I can only conclude the Pats didn't use him properly. Lots of room for improvement from this group. Keene and Asiasi are gloried equipment handlers at this point. I wonder if they handle valet parking outside the stadium. You can't devote $32M to the TE position and only get the production they got last year. Dagger to their roster construction so far.TE-I really like Henry but Jonnu showed me nothing last year that says he can take a big leap forward...physical skills are there but he just doesn't seems to get it...I am not even sure Keene and Asiasi are real people at this point.
Not sure why you suggest the line underachieved last year. I believe they finished the season as PFF's #8 unit last year. Mason played very well, buy Owenu actually had a higher grade than Mason did. Karras by far had the lowest score of the starting unit. They will bring in someone else, and I fully believe they intend to bring in new recruits in the draft and sign an under the radar guy as a free agent. I thought they did fine last year. Not that worried about the OL (but do admit we shouldn't have had to worry about the line and now we do to a certain extent).O-Line-I thought this group underachieved last season and they have now lost lost two starters in Karras and Mason...there is some room for growth with Mike O but Wynn appears to be pretty much average and unreliable...if Brown goes down it could get real dicey...without Dante I just don't have faith they can just figure this position out like they used to.
I don't subscribe to a good offense beats a good offense. I firmly believe a good defense is needed to beat a good offense. This is why I think they need to worry way more about CB than they do WR. Jonathan Jones is coming back, and he was in elite CB territory grade wise by PFF in 2020. He was undrafted, as were J.C. Jackson and Malcolm Butler. I agree and disagree with your comments. I agree that just because they hit on nobodies in the past isn't a reliable strategy. But I do think BB has turned guys into productive players at the position several timesCB-losing Jackson really hurts...after him you have a solid/quality CB in Jones and just an average at best group...if Wade turns into something that would be a huge score...the JoJuan Williams pick really hurts this unit...I don't think the fact the Pats struck gold with Butler and Jackson can be counted on as a smart strategy that they will do it again...just don't see them being in a favorable position playing against legit QBs like Allen.
Not much to add. McCourty had a solid season last year. I don't mind bringing him back, but I don't love the way his contract is structured. He counts $5.7M against the cap this year . . . but will count $9.7M next year (essentially dead money since he is not signed to play next year). He didn't want to play anywhere else. They likely could have got him to play for less.Safety-Even with McCourty aging they have two good ones in the steady Phillips and Duggar who has a chance to be a real good one.
Best described as a work in progress. I give them credit for realizing old and big is not the way to go. Define "blue chip." None of these guys were Parsons level good, but McGrone and Perkins were all projected to have been drafted much earlier if not for injuries. I still think a Trey Flowers reunion is most likely in the cards (whether he counts as a LB or DL). Van Noy, Hightower, and Collins just not more than situational bit players these days. They need early season Judon back. Late season Judon was pretty invisible.LB-anyone who has a clue about this group is full of BS...it is a complete unknown outside of Judon...Bentley is serviceable, but Hightower (if he stays) is pretty much done...there are some intriguing youngsters like Uche, Jennings, Wilson, McMillan, McGrone and Perkins but they are all question marks and none were "blue chip" prospects coming into the NFL...this is the area I will be watching closest as it could be anything from a complete disaster to a real nice surprise that pushes the rebuild faster.
Barmore already is a stud. The other guys are pieces. Godchaux needs to deliver more than what they paid for him. NE is never going to play a pin your ears back and go after the QB style, so comparing them to teams that do is not really a fair comparison.D-Line-sneaky not good position...Barmore is a stud but after that it is an average at best group that doesn't have much upside IMO...guys like Wise, Cowart, Guy, Anderson and Godchaux simply are what they are.
I thought one of the biggest disappointments was special teams last year. Not Folk, as he was solid. But multiple blocked punts. Stupid penalties with opponents kicking the football. Not great decisions fielding kicks. Way too many holding calls on kick coverage. Just not good overall. It remains to be seen if BB's kids being on the staff are earning their keep. I still have a hard time deciphering how important any of the NE coaches are with BB as the leader and chief.Coaching staff-big questions here for the Assistants...great opportunity for some guys to advance their coaching career...I thought there were some real un-Patriot moments last season with regard to penalties, subbing and overall discipline...this group needs to tighten up.
It's clear they won't be serious contenders this year either. That is a tough pill to swallow after being legit SB contenders for years and years. Again, "key injuries" will derail all teams. I agree that too many injuries could make them end up with a not great record, but even without injuries their best-case scenario is a wildcard birth and an early exit. If they were to earn a postseason bid, there might be a slim chance they drew a team with an inexperienced coach and QB combo, so MAYBE they could sneak out one playoff win. But that's their upside this year. I still wonder what BB sees in the roster that the rest of us don't.Overall, I just don't see a path to being anything other than solid as the best case scenario (especially with a loaded AFC)...just too much has to go right and if they get some injuries to the wrong guys (ex. Henry, Trent Brown, Bourne, Barmore, Judon, Jonathan Jones) I just don't think they have the depth to recover from that...that being said I am good with that if they have another good draft, develop the youngsters currently on the team and are in a position to use next year's cap space to move forward and not to bandage holes left be bad drafting which was the case last season.
What I don't get is how the AFC as a whole has way stronger teams now than all those years in the Brady era. If the AFC had been that good all along, NE wouldn't have won anywhere near as much as they did.