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Indefinite New England Patriots Thread (2 Viewers)

I keep hearing that the "master plan" from last year was really not expected to pay dividends until this year, as it was supposedly expected for the new faces to start to gel and come together in Year 2. The other component to this was to be in position to capitalize on Mac's rookie deal in years 3-5 of his contract. (To be clear, that is the narrative as being conveyed through the media, not something that I believe in or am concocting.) By definition, that means 2022 is another building block year. I somewhat can but into some of this, as they were still riding the Cam train up until the start of the season last year. Lots of trial by fire to get things to work together. Part of the reason I don't really buy in totally is they played great in the middle of the season and then fell apart.

As much as fans love splashy free agent signings, they generally don't pan out anywhere near as well as people think they do. There are now multiple advanced analytic sites that measure player performance and value. As I pointed out earlier, the Pats took a bath on production per dollar from some of their FA signings last year. The LAST THING people should want them to do is repeat that strategy again this year. I still think paying $15M for a player that delivers $5M in on-field is way worse than not having that $15M player at all and playing low dollar, average players instead. At least you would have more money to distribute at other positions.

The team(s) that end up being very competitive are the ones that get the most value from their players. If a team is loaded on under market players who produce top of the market value, those teams can afford to throw around big value contracts as their base production is already bought and paid for (the Rams say hi).

NE at this point has a very bad combination. Not enough low dollar players delivering high dollar production, and many high dollar players delivering below average production. Mac was such a steal on a value proposition that he covered up a lot of very poor signings. Hightower was a complete was given how much they paid. Big contract mixed with way below average production is what kills teams.

Looking at individual position groups . . .
 

QB-I love Mac and he should be one that takes that leap...that being said they have done absolutely nothing to help him out so far this offseason...add an injury or two to a Henry, Bourne or Meyer and their weapons could be beyond dreadful...not giving Mac more weapons is easily my #1 gripe because his development is by far the most important thing this year...if he develops, they have a future.
Not sure why or what people saw, but I am seeing a lot of talent evaluators and scouts within the league suggesting Jones really has a weak arm. They said he makes accurate throws, but defenders have a chance to get back into plays because he has not zip on the ball. The injury argument for me, while valid, applies to all 32 teams. No organization can sustain multiple injuries to the same position group and be expected to be very good. IMO, the concept of "more weapons" is more of a luxury than a necessity based on other team needs.

RB-Best unit on the team. just hope the D is could enough to be able to maximize their strengths.
I have a different perspective here. The RBs are highly dependent on the OL. If the line is good (certainly now a question and concern when it maybe wasn't before), the RBs will be good. If White is healthy (that's not a given), he would really help on third downs (the other guys weren't in his league in that role last year).

WR-subpar group and while I like Meyer and Bourne it is pushing it to count on them to take a big leap...Agholor could be better, but I don't see it being much better...if they don't add another quality WR (or two) either in the draft or free agency it will be a joke.
They are no worse off than they were last year. Was the offense a joke last year? They were 6th in the league in scoring last season. They will do what they always do. They'll find an injured vet looking to rehab his value after an injury. They'll invite a guy that got cut from another team. They'll throw a dart in the draft on a developmental guy. They'll toy with some practice squad options. They'll be different options than what they have now . . . and none of them will move the needle much at all. I still see lots of drafts with NE taking a WR at 21. Still don't see it happening. The solution here is get more out of Agholor. They have to pay him anyway. As I already mentioned, get Bourne 2 more targets a game and he easily puts up WR1 numbers. And how is Harry still a member of the Patriots? LOL at the "teams are interested in Harry" reporting. What's his value? A compensatory 7th round pick?

TE-I really like Henry but Jonnu showed me nothing last year that says he can take a big leap forward...physical skills are there but he just doesn't seems to get it...I am not even sure Keene and Asiasi are real people at this point.
Henry was ok but not worth the money. Jonnu was a total waste last year and REALLY not worth the money. I put that on the coaches. I went back and watched some film of Smith on the Titans. He had many electric plays, many of them on simple routes. I can only conclude the Pats didn't use him properly. Lots of room for improvement from this group. Keene and Asiasi are gloried equipment handlers at this point. I wonder if they handle valet parking outside the stadium. You can't devote $32M to the TE position and only get the production they got last year. Dagger to their roster construction so far.

O-Line-I thought this group underachieved last season and they have now lost lost two starters in Karras and Mason...there is some room for growth with Mike O but Wynn appears to be pretty much average and unreliable...if Brown goes down it could get real dicey...without Dante I just don't have faith they can just figure this position out like they used to.
Not sure why you suggest the line underachieved last year. I believe they finished the season as PFF's #8 unit last year. Mason played very well, buy Owenu actually had a higher grade than Mason did. Karras by far had the lowest score of the starting unit. They will bring in someone else, and I fully believe they intend to bring in new recruits in the draft and sign an under the radar guy as a free agent. I thought they did fine last year. Not that worried about the OL (but do admit we shouldn't have had to worry about the line and now we do to a certain extent).

CB-losing Jackson really hurts...after him you have a solid/quality CB in Jones and just an average at best group...if Wade turns into something that would be a huge score...the JoJuan Williams pick really hurts this unit...I don't think the fact the Pats struck gold with Butler and Jackson can be counted on as a smart strategy that they will do it again...just don't see them being in a favorable position playing against legit QBs like Allen.
I don't subscribe to a good offense beats a good offense. I firmly believe a good defense is needed to beat a good offense. This is why I think they need to worry way more about CB than they do WR. Jonathan Jones is coming back, and he was in elite CB territory grade wise by PFF in 2020. He was undrafted, as were J.C. Jackson and Malcolm Butler. I agree and disagree with your comments. I agree that just because they hit on nobodies in the past isn't a reliable strategy. But I do think BB has turned guys into productive players at the position several times 

Safety-Even with McCourty aging they have two good ones in the steady Phillips and Duggar who has a chance to be a real good one.
Not much to add. McCourty had a solid season last year. I don't mind bringing him back, but I don't love the way his contract is structured. He counts $5.7M against the cap this year . . . but will count $9.7M next year (essentially dead money since he is not signed to play next year). He didn't want to play anywhere else. They likely could have got him to play for less.

LB-anyone who has a clue about this group is full of BS...it is a complete unknown outside of Judon...Bentley is serviceable, but Hightower (if he stays) is pretty much done...there are some intriguing youngsters like Uche, Jennings, Wilson, McMillan, McGrone and Perkins but they are all question marks and none were "blue chip" prospects coming into the NFL...this is the area I will be watching closest as it could be anything from a complete disaster to a real nice surprise that pushes the rebuild faster.
Best described as a work in progress. I give them credit for realizing old and big is not the way to go. Define "blue chip." None of these guys were Parsons level good, but McGrone and Perkins were all projected to have been drafted much earlier if not for injuries. I still think a Trey Flowers reunion is most likely in the cards (whether he counts as a LB or DL). Van Noy, Hightower, and Collins just not more than situational bit players these days. They need early season Judon back. Late season Judon was pretty invisible.

D-Line-sneaky not good position...Barmore is a stud but after that it is an average at best group that doesn't have much upside IMO...guys like Wise, Cowart, Guy, Anderson and Godchaux simply are what they are. 
Barmore already is a stud. The other guys are pieces. Godchaux needs to deliver more than what they paid for him. NE is never going to play a pin your ears back and go after the QB style, so comparing them to teams that do is not really a fair comparison.

Coaching staff-big questions here for the Assistants...great opportunity for some guys to advance their coaching career...I thought there were some real un-Patriot moments last season with regard to penalties, subbing and overall discipline...this group needs to tighten up.
I thought one of the biggest disappointments was special teams last year. Not Folk, as he was solid. But multiple blocked punts. Stupid penalties with opponents kicking the football. Not great decisions fielding kicks. Way too many holding calls on kick coverage. Just not good overall. It remains to be seen if BB's kids being on the staff are earning their keep. I still have a hard time deciphering how important any of the NE coaches are with BB as the leader and chief.

Overall, I just don't see a path to being anything other than solid as the best case scenario (especially with a loaded AFC)...just too much has to go right and if they get some injuries to the wrong guys (ex. Henry, Trent Brown, Bourne, Barmore, Judon, Jonathan Jones) I just don't think they have the depth to recover from that...that being said I am good with that if they have another good draft, develop the youngsters currently on the team and are in a position to use next year's cap space to move forward and not to bandage holes left be bad drafting which was the case last season.
It's clear they won't be serious contenders this year either. That is a tough pill to swallow after being legit SB contenders for years and years. Again, "key injuries" will derail all teams. I agree that too many injuries could make them end up with a not great record, but even without injuries their best-case scenario is a wildcard birth and an early exit. If they were to earn a postseason bid, there might be a slim chance they drew a team with an inexperienced coach and QB combo, so MAYBE they could sneak out one playoff win. But that's their upside this year. I still wonder what BB sees in the roster that the rest of us don't.

What I don't get is how the AFC as a whole has way stronger teams now than all those years in the Brady era. If the AFC had been that good all along, NE wouldn't have won anywhere near as much as they did. 

 
Malcolm Butler back. Sounds like two years at around the league minimum. Lots of incentives could push it to $9M total. 

 
Boston said:
Also, it feels like this solidifies that we will never truly find out why he got benched in the Super Bowl...gotta be the best kept secret of the 21st century.
I thought he was pretty bad that year (maybe not Crispy Canty bad, but bad). I was fine that he didn't start. I was surprised though, as the game went on, it didn't look like he was going to see the field at all. Must have really, really, angered Bill somehow to get "Jonas Gray" treatment. 

 
I thought he was pretty bad that year (maybe not Crispy Canty bad, but bad). I was fine that he didn't start. I was surprised though, as the game went on, it didn't look like he was going to see the field at all. Must have really, really, angered Bill somehow to get "Jonas Gray" treatment. 
I’ve always suspected he went on a bender and Bill couldn’t risk playing him. And he never talked about it because Bill actually cared about him and didn’t want to crush his contract opportunities. My theory. 

 
Pats signed S Jabrill Peppers to a one year prove it deal. On paper it's worth up to $5M, but I don't think that it will come in anywhere near that (ie, probably lots of incentives with a low base salary). These are the type of depth / versatile player signings we will likely see the rest of the way in free agency.

 
Casting Couch said:
Patriots acquire Devante Parker. 

Under the radar trade in division. I like it for New England, a big bodied WR who can take the place of the farce that is N'Keal Harry. Pats get a 5th this year, and give up a 3rd next year. 

https://www.patriots.com/news/patriots-acquire-wr-devante-parker-in-trade-with-miami
I read a lot of negativity about Parker but I always viewed him as a stud, and NE basically paid nothing to inherit his modest salary.  Undervalued win.

 
I read a lot of negativity about Parker but I always viewed him as a stud, and NE basically paid nothing to inherit his modest salary.  Undervalued win.
Parker is a big improvement over Harry but I wouldn't call him a stud. He's been near the bottom in terms of separation for at least 2 years in a row. OTOH, he's been near the tops in contested grabs, due to his size and good ball tracking skills. He's had a few big games but lots of duds with Tannehill, Fitzpatrick, and Tua at QB.  Can Mac Jones do better? I think with his accuracy, the upper limit is what Parker did in the 2019 season with Fitzpatrick,  1200 yard, 9 TDs. This is possible if the NE defense takes a step back and they're in more shootouts with the teams on their schedule such as GB, ARI, MIN, CIN, LV, CLE, IND, BUF (x2), and even improved MIA and NYJ. 

I thought Mac was accurate on many long passes, but he started throwing them into well covered receivers. I see more yards and TDs for Mac in 2022, and more INTs, some a result of 50-50 passes to a well-covered Parker. For fantasy, I think Parker and Mac might be under-rated. Parker also comes with an injury risk, mostly hamstring issues over the years.

 
They've been playing highlight reel clips and packages on tv since the trade, and to my eyes the "lack of separation" element is getting overblown. Many of the passes he caught in extremely tight windows were bang bang plays / quick hitters right off the line where the ball was thrown right next to (if not at) a defender. He fought off or through defenders and also used his body to shield defenders away from the ball. Those get recorded as plays with no separation, but those are exceptional catches, many times in must have situations (often with poor judgment on the QBs part). Fades deep in the red zone are always contested and jump balls, and Parker comes down with those grabs.

Overall, even with a poor end to the season last year, NE last year trended in the right direction. They were one of 6 teams to rank in the Top 10 in points scored and points allowed (along with DAL, TB, KC, BUF, and IND). I still think the solution to getting more out of the offense is getting more out of the guys already on the roster that they signed last year (and paid a lot of money for). They mostly ran a conservative offense with a rookie QB . . . so they will likely give Mac a little more leeway this year. I still think with more usage Bourne can be a #1 receiver . . . he's shifty, explosive, and gets a ton of YAC.

I also think BB is going to get to work on reconfiguring and reshaping the defense to be younger / faster / more explosive. If I had to guess, they will go LB, OL, CB in the draft (and a developmental WR in the middle rounds). Even though fans won't like to hear it, I think the offense falls in the "good enough" category, as BB would rather play ground and pound with play action and try to get back to being solid on defense. Yeah, I get it, the league is a 41-38 scoring league these days and the Pats couldn't stop the Bills (not even a little bit). But they aren't going to beat many top tier offense without a consistently strong defense. 

 
They've been playing highlight reel clips and packages on tv since the trade, and to my eyes the "lack of separation" element is getting overblown. Many of the passes he caught in extremely tight windows were bang bang plays / quick hitters right off the line where the ball was thrown right next to (if not at) a defender. He fought off or through defenders and also used his body to shield defenders away from the ball. Those get recorded as plays with no separation, but those are exceptional catches, many times in must have situations (often with poor judgment on the QBs part). Fades deep in the red zone are always contested and jump balls, and Parker comes down with those grabs.

Overall, even with a poor end to the season last year, NE last year trended in the right direction. They were one of 6 teams to rank in the Top 10 in points scored and points allowed (along with DAL, TB, KC, BUF, and IND). I still think the solution to getting more out of the offense is getting more out of the guys already on the roster that they signed last year (and paid a lot of money for). They mostly ran a conservative offense with a rookie QB . . . so they will likely give Mac a little more leeway this year. I still think with more usage Bourne can be a #1 receiver . . . he's shifty, explosive, and gets a ton of YAC.

I also think BB is going to get to work on reconfiguring and reshaping the defense to be younger / faster / more explosive. If I had to guess, they will go LB, OL, CB in the draft (and a developmental WR in the middle rounds). Even though fans won't like to hear it, I think the offense falls in the "good enough" category, as BB would rather play ground and pound with play action and try to get back to being solid on defense. Yeah, I get it, the league is a 41-38 scoring league these days and the Pats couldn't stop the Bills (not even a little bit). But they aren't going to beat many top tier offense without a consistently strong defense. 
Parker's lack of separation is also related to the defenders expectation that he won't blow by them vertically or laterally. His YAC isn't good either. In NE, maybe they will also scheme him open more than in Miami. The Dolphins schemed other players open more than Parker, inckuding Hollins. Wilson, and Ford., at least that was my impression. And they relied on Parker to position himself open. He was a 4.45 40 coming out of college, but I haven't seen him blow by defenders lately. 

 
Parker's lack of separation is also related to the defenders expectation that he won't blow by them vertically or laterally. His YAC isn't good either. In NE, maybe they will also scheme him open more than in Miami. The Dolphins schemed other players open more than Parker, inckuding Hollins. Wilson, and Ford., at least that was my impression. And they relied on Parker to position himself open. He was a 4.45 40 coming out of college, but I haven't seen him blow by defenders lately. 
There are a lot of things that go into whether someone has a role and value and how big an asset he is. For example, people have been quick to label Agholor as a bust in NE so far. He didn't put up big numbers, but WR / TE / RB on the team were glad to have him because he helped open up the field by drawing defenders and coverage downfield (and drew guys away from the LOS). That helped the offense overall, but that's not the same as if he put up 1000/8 for receiving totals.

The media here makes it out like Parker will be that deep threat, but I think he will be more of a sideline guy that can also work across the middle . . . with an occasional deeper route. In some ways, I don't think they will use him all that differently than Bourne, and overall, Parker / Bourne / Meyers could all put up ok / bland / tepid receiving numbers. Blending in Hunter and White out of the backfield (and Jonnu if they figure out how to better use him), the team totals might be ok, but individually the Patriots could have a lot of undesirable fantasy options this season. I still think with more targets Bourne could put up some really good numbers (like Deebo) . . . but who knows if they will try to up his usage this year.

 
There are a lot of things that go into whether someone has a role and value and how big an asset he is. For example, people have been quick to label Agholor as a bust in NE so far. He didn't put up big numbers, but WR / TE / RB on the team were glad to have him because he helped open up the field by drawing defenders and coverage downfield (and drew guys away from the LOS). That helped the offense overall, but that's not the same as if he put up 1000/8 for receiving totals.

The media here makes it out like Parker will be that deep threat, but I think he will be more of a sideline guy that can also work across the middle . . . with an occasional deeper route. In some ways, I don't think they will use him all that differently than Bourne, and overall, Parker / Bourne / Meyers could all put up ok / bland / tepid receiving numbers. Blending in Hunter and White out of the backfield (and Jonnu if they figure out how to better use him), the team totals might be ok, but individually the Patriots could have a lot of undesirable fantasy options this season. I still think with more targets Bourne could put up some really good numbers (like Deebo) . . . but who knows if they will try to up his usage this year.
Good analysis. I'm interested for fantasy in backup QBs in my big league of 16 teams, where there's value in getting one of the first backup QBs for bye week and injury. I think Mac Jones could be that guy, given the good QBs NE will face, and a possible decline in their defense; they may have to score more than in the past.  Bourne could be a sleeper WR if they use him more. Like you showed earlier, he was super efficient, and maybe Parker faces the best CB.

 
That was a gut punch pick. I demand to know what the f ‘he wasn’t going to last much longer’ actually means. Which team coveted him? Bill better love some dbs soon. Great draft by the Jets, Giants, Ravens and Eagles too. 
 

 
Slater is getting old...will probably use the next pick on his replacement so we can lock down the gunner position on special teams for the next 10 years...these other teams just don't get it...In Bill we Trust!

 
That was a gut punch pick. I demand to know what the f ‘he wasn’t going to last much longer’ actually means. Which team coveted him? Bill better love some dbs soon. Great draft by the Jets, Giants, Ravens and Eagles too. 
Connecting some dots, NE with Casario had scouted and were interested in Strange. But he got extra college eligibility and ended up playing for 6 years. Casario wanted him but he’s now in Houston. The Texans have the #37 pick. Speculation Houston had him on speed dial. 

 
Another reach for T. Thornton. And they traded up for him when he probably could have been secured a round or two later.

Don't get it.

And Mike Reiss already made the Bethel Johnson comparison which scares the hell out of me.

 
This draft is really the crossroads for the future of the Pats (insert dramatic music)...the Pats have zigged when everyone else is zagging...there is little doubt they have put themselves out on a limb with this draft as well as their entire offseason...if Strange is not a high level Guard that can start in his rookie year (he will be 24 in July) and Thornton is not a quality WR and that group of LBs they have collected does not perform well it is time to start thinking about whole sale changes in the front office because I will have lost faith that they can get them back to a high level...on the flipside if these picks works out and players like Duggar, Barmore, Onwenu, Wade and Stevenson continue to develop and they enter next offseason with that huge amount of cap space they have available I will gladly shut up and go back to saying "in Bill we Trust"...this year I am not worried about their record as I think the max they can get to is 9 wins, I am much more concerned that the foundation will have been built to become a legit contender again in 2023.

 
Obviously hope to be wrong but I’m feeling sick over these picks. I understand the appeal with each of the players. But It’s as if they have bad intel on how other teams are viewing ‘their guys.’ McDaniels and Caserio screwing with the old man? I don’t get it. 

 
Obviously hope to be wrong but I’m feeling sick over these picks. I understand the appeal with each of the players. But It’s as if they have bad intel on how other teams are viewing ‘their guys.’ McDaniels and Caserio screwing with the old man? I don’t get it. 


Not the first time I feel BB just likes to be different...I think he secretly listens to Talk Radio and then figures out how he can annoy people the most. 

 
Two running backs drafted. I know D. Harris is a free agent after the season. Wonder if Bill is thinking of pulling a Sony Michele on him.

Not surprised by the QB pick. Bill has done that many times before.

Hoping they snag Bo Melton WR out of Rutgers. 

 
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Two running backs drafted. I know D. Harris is a free agent after the season. Wonder if Bill is thinking of pulling a Sony Michele on him.

Not surprised by the QB pick. Bill has done that many times before.

Hoping they snag Bo Melton WR out of Rutgers. 


They lost Bolden so I am guessing (which is dicey with what they have been doing) the second pick may be filling that role...gotta believe the JJ Taylor experiment is officially over.

 
Damien Harris isn't a pass catching back ala Jonathan Taylor/Zeke so he probably isn't worth signing long term. Stevenson will always be a 100 carry back. Maybe Pierre Strong can be that Aaron Jones of this draft.

 
Damien Harris isn't a pass catching back
I don't have PFF anymore, so I can't pull the grades, but he looked fine to me. The knock on Taylor coming out of school was that he couldn't catch. Zeke has always been just serviceable, according to PFF grades for receiving. 

So probably not the best comps. 

 
Fantastic draft by BB and the Patriots staff.  

Just finished watching the highlights for UDFA D’Eriq King....how does this guy go undrafted?!

 
Fantastic draft by BB and the Patriots staff.  

Just finished watching the highlights for UDFA D’Eriq King....how does this guy go undrafted?!
What position would  D’Eriq King play in the NFL? He's just under 5'9" and not as fast as Murray and his arm isn't as good. He's does have a ton of Moxie.

 
What position would  D’Eriq King play in the NFL? He's just under 5'9" and not as fast as Murray and his arm isn't as good. He's does have a ton of Moxie.


My guess is he's a practice squad project they try to develop as a possible WR like Edelman or as 3rd QB who can do some wildcat.

https://www.masslive.com/patriots/2022/04/patriots-sign-miami-qb-deriq-king-a-potential-wr-as-undrafted-free-agent-report.html

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10034606-deriq-king-patriots-reportedly-agree-to-udfa-contract-after-2022-nfl-draft

 
There are a lot of things that go into whether someone has a role and value and how big an asset he is. For example, people have been quick to label Agholor as a bust in NE so far. He didn't put up big numbers, but WR / TE / RB on the team were glad to have him because he helped open up the field by drawing defenders and coverage downfield (and drew guys away from the LOS). That helped the offense overall, but that's not the same as if he put up 1000/8 for receiving totals.

The media here makes it out like Parker will be that deep threat, but I think he will be more of a sideline guy that can also work across the middle . . . with an occasional deeper route. In some ways, I don't think they will use him all that differently than Bourne, and overall, Parker / Bourne / Meyers could all put up ok / bland / tepid receiving numbers. Blending in Hunter and White out of the backfield (and Jonnu if they figure out how to better use him), the team totals might be ok, but individually the Patriots could have a lot of undesirable fantasy options this season. I still think with more targets Bourne could put up some really good numbers (like Deebo) . . . but who knows if they will try to up his usage this year.
Great info, as always. I thought Bourne looked great last year with limited targets.  So, when they're in 12 personnel, is it Meyers and Bourne on the field?  Or will it just be a revolving four-man rotation, more or less? Is there anyone who never leaves the field?

On the RB side, Harris is almost certainly gone after this year.  So does BB get everything he can from him and run him into the ground?  Or does Rhamondre get more of a chance this year? I gave up years ago on hoping a reliable high-end fantasy option would emerge but curious to hear if you think it's more or less 65/35 or so when all is said and done?

TIA.

 
As much as fans love splashy free agent signings, they generally don't pan out anywhere near as well as people think they do. There are now multiple advanced analytic sites that measure player performance and value. As I pointed out earlier, the Pats took a bath on production per dollar from some of their FA signings last year. The LAST THING people should want them to do is repeat that strategy again this year. I still think paying $15M for a player that delivers $5M in on-field is way worse than not having that $15M player at all and playing low dollar, average players instead. At least you would have more money to distribute at other positions.

The team(s) that end up being very competitive are the ones that get the most value from their players. If a team is loaded on under market players who produce top of the market value, those teams can afford to throw around big value contracts as their base production is already bought and paid for (the Rams say hi).

NE at this point has a very bad combination. Not enough low dollar players delivering high dollar production, and many high dollar players delivering below average production. Mac was such a steal on a value proposition that he covered up a lot of very poor signings. Hightower was a complete was given how much they paid. Big contract mixed with way below average production is what kills teams.


I've been pondering this.  To summarize, you state 1. NE is executing a 3-5 year strategy around Jones' rookie contract, and it takes time for this to gel, and 2. NE's problem is the FA acquisitions are returning low value per dollar.

But there's a logical fallacy here which is point 1 implies that value per dollar is dynamic and point 2 implies that its static.

There's no denying the rear-facing facts you present, but what happens going forward is tbd.

 
I've been pondering this.  To summarize, you state 1. NE is executing a 3-5 year strategy around Jones' rookie contract, and it takes time for this to gel, and 2. NE's problem is the FA acquisitions are returning low value per dollar.

But there's a logical fallacy here which is point 1 implies that value per dollar is dynamic and point 2 implies that its static.

There's no denying the rear-facing facts you present, but what happens going forward is tbd.
Obviously, it's total team production that matters. Each team has limited dollars to work with to produce the best product they can on the field. Last year, NE team rolled out a squad that ranked 6th in points scored, 2nd in fewest points allowed, and 3rd in point differential. Based on those numbers, they were projected to have had 12.5 wins last year. Of course, the numbers are skewed because they won 5 games by a combined score of 173-32 against bottom tier teams. Their differential for the year was +159 points. Those 5 games accounted for 141 of them. Their 5-7 regular season record in their other 12 games is probably a more accurate starting off point for the state of the team.

The reason I brought up the value vs. production of big contracts is those big dollar contracts hamstrung the team from doing much in free agency this offseason. That's why I have suggested that if the team is going to do better this season, it will have to do so holistically from within with the returning players from last year, as they couldn't add many impact pieces this offseason. 

One thing that I saw last week that was surprising is USA Today posted a list of the highest percentage of big plays / explosive plays for skill position players. I didn't expect much from New England players, but they had guys ranked way higher than I expected. Bourne was 5th at receiver. Agholor was 33rd and Meyers was 72nd. Newly added Devante Parker was 69th. Stevenson ranked 3rd and Harris 18th for RB's. Overall, I don't think the offense is as limited as some people are making it out to be.

I don't think the 2022 team will be dramatically different or better than last year, but they have redshirt guys and a new draft class to work with. Certainly, they can get more out of the guys they signed last year. On paper, lots of other teams in the AFC look to have gotten better, but just adding big name, big dollar pieces does not always have the impact as expected. I would guess their record will be similar to last year (9 or 10 wins). But if things don't go their way, they have a much lower floor this year than any of the Brady years.

Overall, NE has faced three critical issues all at once . . . 1) Brady moving on, 2) their better players aging out, and 3) multiple poor draft classes (without startable options to fill in for the outgoing vets). Brady and other key pieces couldn't play forever, and they should have been better prepared to overcome that. I hate to call a season a bridge year, but that essentially is what 2022 is going to end up being. See who can hack it in the NFL, get a lot of cap relief for next year, and hopefully have a core group to continue to build on with Mac being the next big thing at QB. At this point, I think they still have a lot of ground to cover to get back to being a legit contender. We could be saying the same thing next off season, which would be a huge disappointment if they don't look better this time next year.

 
The issue with $ is they had to go on the spree because they were drafting so badly…those signings were to cover holes, not to move forward…the hope in 2022 is the young players continue to develop so they can use their cap space this off-season to move forward not to make up for past mistakes…if they are gonna get back to being legit contenders the Uches, Stranges, Thorntons, McGrones, Stevensons, Onwenus, Perkins and Duggars need to become the foundation of the team…if that happens they will now be in a position to get back to being a legit contender.

 
One thing that I saw last week that was surprising is USA Today posted a list of the highest percentage of big plays / explosive plays for skill position players. I didn't expect much from New England players, but they had guys ranked way higher than I expected. Bourne was 5th at receiver. Agholor was 33rd and Meyers was 72nd. Newly added Devante Parker was 69th. Stevenson ranked 3rd and Harris 18th for RB's. Overall, I don't think the offense is as limited as some people are making it out to be.

Overall, NE has faced three critical issues all at once . . . 1) Brady moving on, 2) their better players aging out, and 3) multiple poor draft classes (without startable options to fill in for the outgoing vets). Brady and other key pieces couldn't play forever, and they should have been better prepared to overcome that. I hate to call a season a bridge year, but that essentially is what 2022 is going to end up being. See who can hack it in the NFL, get a lot of cap relief for next year, and hopefully have a core group to continue to build on with Mac being the next big thing at QB. At this point, I think they still have a lot of ground to cover to get back to being a legit contender. We could be saying the same thing next off season, which would be a huge disappointment if they don't look better this time next year.
The first and second paragraph are at odds....a little bit anyway.

As the eternal optimist, I "know" that Bill has a nasty surprise coming for the rest of the league and I "hope" it's this year vs next.

 
The issue with $ is they had to go on the spree because they were drafting so badly…those signings were to cover holes, not to move forward…the hope in 2022 is the young players continue to develop so they can use their cap space this off-season to move forward not to make up for past mistakes…if they are gonna get back to being legit contenders the Uches, Stranges, Thorntons, McGrones, Stevensons, Onwenus, Perkins and Duggars need to become the foundation of the team…if that happens they will now be in a position to get back to being a legit contender.
and that the realize a better return on investment on the TE/WR spending spree than realized in year 1.

 
and that the realize a better return on investment on the TE/WR spending spree than realized in year 1.
I have no issues with Henry, he was solid and I hope they use him more…Bourne was an excellent signing who is well worth his contract…Agholor is not worth the money but the good news is he only has one more year…I do think he can be more productive then last year but would be shocked if he played up to that contract…Jonnu is the x-factor…with that deal they have to get something out of him…he looks the part but he was just awful last year…he looked lost out there…I am beginning to think that while he is really athletic he’s never going to put it together…I hope I am wrong because that contract is an albatross right now.

 
I think everyone is overlooking the fact that it takes awhile before any player digests the Patriots playbook.

Mac Jones was the exception. Give all of them another season and then we can decide who is a bust.

Even Agholer at a "reasonable" $9 mill will need to show something. The TE contacts are backwards.

H Henry is signed to 2023 and J Smith to 2024. K Bourne is an absolute steal at $3.5 mill this year and

$4.75 mill in 2023. D Parker is good it at 5.6 mill then $5.7. That evens out the cost of all the pass catchers

from a salary cap standpoint.

 
The story all preseason so far has been what the heck is BB doing with his coaching staff. The sports media guys have been relentlessly banging the drum that the disconnect / disarray in the coaching staff will be a death knell to the franchise and will cause irreputable harm to Mac Jones' development. I guess we will have to see what impact the makeshift coaching staff will have on the team's success.

However, this will mark the third time (and fourth season) the Pats have gone without an offensive coordinator since Bill came to town. They didn't name an OC after Charlie Weiss left and after Josh McDaniels left the first time. After two seasons without an OC (2009 and 2010), Bill O'Brien got assigned the OC title. There was no OC in 2005 (Josh got the role in 2006).

Similarly, this will be the fifth season in a row that they haven't had a defensive coordinator. They didn't name one in BB's first season with the team and also when Dean Pees left as well. The position was vacant in 2010 and 2011 (and in 2000 as well).

Bill did something similar in his time with Cleveland, as he did not have an OC his first three years with the Browns. (He tabbed Steve Crosby as OC his final two seasons in CLE.)

The Patriots have seen a ton of secondary and lower- level coaches (also scouts and front office folks) move multiple times over the years. I agree that this year has a different feel to it, but they have seen a lot of coaches and staff plucked off over the past 20 years.

Maybe this year will be different, but in 2010, NE did not have an OC or a DC . . . and they went 14-2. Yeah, I get it. They had Brady and other notable coaches on staff then (Flores, Patricia, O'Brien, Fears, Scarnecchia, Adams). Yes, I would have put more faith in that group than Patricia and Judge coaching the offense this season. For now, I shrug this off and classify it as BB doing things differently than everyone else. No matter what coaches on staff have particular titles, BB is still the one pulling the strings.

 
The story all preseason so far has been what the heck is BB doing with his coaching staff. The sports media guys have been relentlessly banging the drum that the disconnect / disarray in the coaching staff will be a death knell to the franchise and will cause irreputable harm to Mac Jones' development. I guess we will have to see what impact the makeshift coaching staff will have on the team's success.

However, this will mark the third time (and fourth season) the Pats have gone without an offensive coordinator since Bill came to town. They didn't name an OC after Charlie Weiss left and after Josh McDaniels left the first time. After two seasons without an OC (2009 and 2010), Bill O'Brien got assigned the OC title. There was no OC in 2005 (Josh got the role in 2006).

Similarly, this will be the fifth season in a row that they haven't had a defensive coordinator. They didn't name one in BB's first season with the team and also when Dean Pees left as well. The position was vacant in 2010 and 2011 (and in 2000 as well).

Bill did something similar in his time with Cleveland, as he did not have an OC his first three years with the Browns. (He tabbed Steve Crosby as OC his final two seasons in CLE.)

The Patriots have seen a ton of secondary and lower- level coaches (also scouts and front office folks) move multiple times over the years. I agree that this year has a different feel to it, but they have seen a lot of coaches and staff plucked off over the past 20 years.

Maybe this year will be different, but in 2010, NE did not have an OC or a DC . . . and they went 14-2. Yeah, I get it. They had Brady and other notable coaches on staff then (Flores, Patricia, O'Brien, Fears, Scarnecchia, Adams). Yes, I would have put more faith in that group than Patricia and Judge coaching the offense this season. For now, I shrug this off and classify it as BB doing things differently than everyone else. No matter what coaches on staff have particular titles, BB is still the one pulling the strings.
I think the big issue is Patricia and Judge…those two potentially being his top two Assistants scares a lot of people.

 
I think the big issue is Patricia and Judge…those two potentially being his top two Assistants scares a lot of people.
I understand that folks cringe at the thought of those two leading the charge on offense based on their less than stellar results as head coaches (a combined 23-52-1 with a .309 winning percentage). It is what it is . . . and I am already tired of this as the primary storyline heading into the 2022 Patriots season. Locally or nationally, that's all we are getting for coverage on the Patriots. Nothing is going to change between now and 9/11 when the season starts. Hopefully, they come up with something else to talk about in the next three months.

As far as losing McDaniels goes, I think he was a good but not great coordinator. Bill had Josh follow the Weis system that was slot receiver driven when he took the reins. That system got upgraded when Randy Moss came to town. The two TE offense got installed when Bill O'Brien was around. By the time Josh became OC again, he inherited Brady in his prime, Gronk, Hernandez, Welker, and Edelman. Hard to muck that up. McDaniels did a good job with Jones last year. We'll have to see how much a role BB played in that. I think Bill will have a much more active role in the offense this season, even if Patricia and Judge are the ones that seem to be getting anointed as running the offense.

On an interesting side note, Bill thought the team did so well and worked so hard that he cancelled the last 3 days' worth of minicamp / OTAs. So much for no days off. That definitely sounds like a kinder, gentler head coach than the task master many have accused him of being. I admit, that seemed like an odd thing to do.

 
My hopeful though for the day:

BB knows exactly what he thinks will be successful for the offense. I don't think he cares that Judge or Patricia aren't particularly skilled at being head coaches. He doesn't need them to be. They need to understand what he wants them to do and execute. 

It seems as if the entire coaching staff involved in the offense decided that with McDaniel's departure, it was time for a bit of a refresh and a look around the league at what other ideas they felt they could incorporate successfully. (I'm cribbing a little bit from BSJ here). They updated some of the nomenclature, making it harder for people no longer in their system to know what they're doing. Fold in some new zone running stuff, deep passing concepts, call it a day. 

I'm more than a little reluctant to just say "I'm sure it'll all be fine" but stranger things have happened. 

Side note, still worried about the OLine and the D, quite a bit. 

 
Recent NFL power ranking has the Patriots near the bottom of the AFC ...
only ahead of HOU, JAX, and NYJ.
NFL Power Ranking 2022

Gotta say, I don't argue that spot after the way the defense finished last season.
Going to be pretty tough landing a playoff spot this year.
 
I posted in the Thornton thread about him being activated and how the Pats could’ve waited the whole 21 days to so if they wanted. Had every excuse to with them down to their third string rookie QB (and a likely heavy diet of run plays) and it sounds like Meyers should be ready to return to action today, giving them the full WR room available. But Thornton’s speed is intriguing enough that he may be put out there to keep the Lions defense honest. Can’t overcommit to defending the run if a guy like Thornton can burn you deep.

Seems very likely to me that Thornton will be involved today, the question is how much. And what will this mean to the other receivers? With Jonnu Smith’s injury, this likely puts Humphrey in more of a TE role. Do they still dress up all 5 of Meyers, Parker, Agholor, Bourne, and Thornton? I’m a little worried for Bourne to be honest. Not totally sure what he did/didn’t do to get in the doghouse, but for such an important part of last year’s offense he really hasn’t been used much so far this season.
 
Snap counts from today's game . . . Jakobi Meyers (49), Kendrick Bourne (33), DeVante Parker (31), Tyquan Thornton (24), Lil'Jordan Humphrey (14), Nelson Agholor (7).
 
Ram 2-3, Pats 2-3. B Belichick gets the last laugh over his first round pick. Rams can't run the ball
and aren't good against a good pass rush.

The Pats will face the Browns, Bears, Jets, Colts, Bye and then Jets. They split with the Jets
and they could be 6-4.
 
It's early for BB to take a victory lap and no one is fitting Jack Jones for a HOF jacket anytime soon, but so far this year . . .

Jack Jones, 90.4 PFF grade (signed for 4 years for $4.4 million)
J.C. Jackson, 35.7 PFF grade (signed by LAC for 5 years, $82.5 million).
 

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