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Right? you should know since you are probably a stud pro who normally runs for first downs in the NFL.
Dallas D looks atrocious. Sean Lee got hurt and left the game (I think). He was lost for the year last year among other injuries and Dallas' run D because one of the worst, if not the worst run Ds. Remember week 17 against the Redskins? RG3 was completely gimpy and they knew Morris was the entire Redskin offense and he ripped them completely apart for 233 yards and 3 TDs.
Eh, let's be real though Adam: Super low tread on PT's tires. I am lukewarm(er) on Ingram after tonight's game. I'll call it a step in the right direction.
I'm not a "tread on the tires" kind of guy. I believe that age, and not workload, is far and away the primary driver of RB decline.
What?? Tell that to Arian Foster. Or Larry Johnson.
What about them? Arian Foster has just 1100 career carries. (Compare to Peterson with 1900+ or Gore with 2000+). Larry Johnson was the supreme example of a low-workload guy; he was age 26 before he had a season with more than 120 carries. And he only had two seasons with over 200 carries in his career.
I don't feel confident one way or the other (age vs. mileage) but he's pretty obviously talking about high mileage over a short time span rather than career. It wasn't exactly a cryptic post.
Exactly. And, even if you want to argue that having a couple high workload seasons can negatively impact you, it has nothing to do with the fact that virtually ALL RBs decline with age and 29 years of age is approaching that wall. Little usage before then doesn't negate that. Plus, the guys that tend to be productive beyond that point tend to have higher workloads earlier in their career.
Maybe a crazy 450+ touch season like Foster had last year has an impact, but maybe not. Tomlinson and Emmitt Smith put up seasons like that on the regular. Terrell Davis had north of 500 touches in 1997 and was still halfway decent in 1998. Adrian Peterson has had seasons of 406 touches, 411 touches, and 411 touches, and emerged completely unscathed from all of them. In fact, his injury came the year after the lowest-workload season of his career, outside of his rookie year; he had just 319 touches in 2010.
The original context of the discussion was someone calling Pierre Thomas a low-mileage player. Clearly that was in reference to his entire career, not just his single-season usage in 2012.
This seems harsh. He's been a massive bust and this game doesn't mean he's turned the corner by any stretch, but it was a really good game for him. He would have "taken the game over" had they let him.
Just observations.
Agreed, but calbear wasn't replying to the Pierre Thomas mention. Obviously Foster and LJ didn't have large career totals, but did have large individual season totals.Adam Harstad said:
I agree to an extent, although I give him a little more credit than you do. I think he played very well, I just doubt the Saints are going to be running the ball 35+ times very often and he still only received around 30% of the RB touches in the game (amazing, the RBs had 52 touches last night). Barring injury, I wouldn't feel confident starting him at all.
There's no evidence (really, none) that large load in an individual season leads to increased likelihood of decline or injury in the subsequent season. Most running backs decline in subsequent seasons no matter what their load was. Certainly anyone who's had a record-breaking season is likely to have less of a record-breaking season the next year, again, regardless of number of touches. And of course one can always use multiple-endpoint fallacies to find a spot where it looks like there's a causal relationship between whatever statistic you choose (yardage gained, number of touches, yards per carry) and a decline in subsequent years, but that's simply a consequence of the bell curve at work. It doesn't have predictive value.
Sure, agreed. It seems unlikely that any workhorse-style running back in New Orleans will be particularly fantasy relevant; value there comes in the passing game. If it's not Thomas and Sproles it'll be other pass-catching backs.
I don't think New Orleans sees that as his game. If and when they shuffle off Sproles and Thomas I think they're likely to bring in similar backs.
I remember someone (Paine, maybe?) looking at it on a more granular level, looking if extreme workload during a very short stretch increased chances of injury immediately afterwards. Something like if a back gets 100 carries in a 3-week span, what's the likelihood that he declines in effectiveness or gets injured immediately thereafter. That was an interesting line of thought, although I don't recall whether he ever finished the analysis and offered his conclusions.
Quality perspectives both ways. I am not getting excited about pt and sproles age though. If they decline/leave he is equally as likely to get outperformed by some mid/late rounder or even udfa. Any NFL caliber back is probably enough to keep him from being too fantasy relevant
Tell you this much - the Saints offensive line looked awesome in that game. On Ingram's first good run, about 15 yards, in the 2nd quarter, they pretty much walled off the Cowboys whole first and second lines and drove them almost intop the sideline, Ware was left off by himself with no one around him, nice cutback by Ingram.
If anyone was angry here I think it was Payton after the Jets rushed all over the Saints.
The only value I see in Ingram is that there is a good chance he is the only one of the three to get resigned. I already think Robinson is the better player, so I would expect Khiry or some other back to take the lead. But there is likely a small window of opportunity for Ingram, even next year, as Sproles and Pierre are in decline because of their age. I don't own Ingram, but I would hold onto him rather than sell at the current price.FF Ninja said:
The best chance for a value bump for Ingram lies in the chance that he leaves New Orleans for a team that will commit to feeding him volume carries in a power running attack. If he somehow re-signs with the Saints, it hurts him. A ton.
