INJURY TRENDS > Do they exist? (1 Viewer)

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It seems a pretty big point of contention in Fantasy Football is that whether certain players are more likely to be injured again, based on past injury history. I've done a cursory search and can't seem to find anywhere with a decent NFL Injury Database. Does anyone have a suggestion? IMO this could be a pretty important study if we could find some viable data and use proper methodology in breaking it down.

IMO we should start with a definition of "injured" and I think that a good starting point would be a player who misses at least 1 game due to an injury sustained on the field. Thoughts?

Next step is to find a database of players' injuries and somehow break it down to assess the likelihood of "repeat injuries" once a player has been hurt once. I suppose this could be further refined to see if they are more likely to injure the same area vs just being injury prone (additional injuries to another part of the body). In a case by case basis I think it's tough to infer valid assumptions.... but given enough data I think we could begin to develop a decent idea of how likely some players are to be injury prone (or not).

Thoughts?

 

[butcher boy]

You also have to factor in how tough players are. Guys like Gore and Roethlisberger play through pain, while guys like Mathews develop reputations for taking themselves out of games at the first sign of it.

 

[MAC_32]

I've toyed with the idea, but there's so many variables that I can't come up with a good way to accumulate the info then translate it to a table indicating 'injury risk.'

The primary factors I consider are types of injuries, frequency of injuries, specific recovery time (everyone heals differently), and ability to practice vs. perform on Sunday. Problem is, each situation is different. Some guys rarely practice until Friday and continually tear it up come Sunday. Others are banged up all week then blow up in games you don't expect them to and lay an egg when you expect them to blow up, Beanie Wells is famous for this. Some suffer a modest injury and never get their legs back under them - Sam Bradford, others say shoot me up and go out there anyway - Tony Romo.

Just so many variables that makes it unquantifiable, just need to evaluate each case individually.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

I used to think that the idea of an injury prone player was a myth.

However, here's the list of players with a risk-adjusted draft position inside the first 100 picks (i.e. the NFL considered them to be pretty good talents) who have NFL quality physical tools (to cut out some of the guys who were just bums), but share the unfortunate combination of being both tall (over six feet) and having poor vision (my own metrics):

Brandon Jacobs

T.J. Duckett

Chris Perry

Kevin Jones

Chris Wells

Greg Jones

Eric Shelton

Justin Fargas

Toby Gerhart

Daniel Thomas

Kevan Barlow

Musa Smith

Chris Brown

That's damn near a who's who of players that were either constantly nicked up or suffered career ending injuries at a very young age.

Things are a bit harder to see if you include players who weren't as well regarded or who didn't have NFL quality tools because they often didn't get a chance to play enough to get banged up in the first place. But it looks like the guys who do play tend to share the same fate.

So I'd say that in general players who are both tall and don't have the vision to avoid the big hits are going to end up with more than their fair share of injuries and could fairly be described as 'injury prone.'

 

[Instinctive]

You also have to factor in how tough players are. Guys like Gore and Roethlisberger play through pain, while guys like Mathews develop reputations for taking themselves out of games at the first sign of it.

It amuses me that you point to Gore vs Mathews when Mathews has missed a grand total of ONE more game than Gore over the entire time their careers have overlapped.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

I used to think that the idea of an injury prone player was a myth.

However, here's the list of players with a risk-adjusted draft position inside the first 100 picks (i.e. the NFL considered them to be pretty good talents) who have NFL quality physical tools (to cut out some of the guys who were just bums), but share the unfortunate combination of being both tall (over six feet) and having poor vision (my own metrics):

Brandon Jacobs

T.J. Duckett

Chris Perry

Kevin Jones

Chris Wells

Greg Jones

Eric Shelton

Justin Fargas

Toby Gerhart

Daniel Thomas

Kevan Barlow

Musa Smith

Chris Brown

That's damn near a who's who of players that were either constantly nicked up or suffered career ending injuries at a very young age.

Things are a bit harder to see if you include players who weren't as well regarded or who didn't have NFL quality tools because they often didn't get a chance to play enough to get banged up in the first place. But it looks like the guys who do play tend to share the same fate.

So I'd say that in general players who are both tall and don't have the vision to avoid the big hits are going to end up with more than their fair share of injuries and could fairly be described as 'injury prone.'

those injuries were all from hits?

 

[butcher boy]

You also have to factor in how tough players are. Guys like Gore and Roethlisberger play through pain, while guys like Mathews develop reputations for taking themselves out of games at the first sign of it.

It amuses me that you point to Gore vs Mathews when Mathews has missed a grand total of ONE more game than Gore over the entire time their careers have overlapped.

The problem you're having with this is that you're trying to quantify toughness when combined with being injury prone. Give Mathews Gore's toughness and I assure you he plays through a lot of the injuries he's faced so far.

 

[Instinctive]

You also have to factor in how tough players are. Guys like Gore and Roethlisberger play through pain, while guys like Mathews develop reputations for taking themselves out of games at the first sign of it.

It amuses me that you point to Gore vs Mathews when Mathews has missed a grand total of ONE more game than Gore over the entire time their careers have overlapped.

The problem you're having with this is that you're trying to quantify toughness when combined with being injury prone. Give Mathews Gore's toughness and I assure you he plays through a lot of the injuries he's faced so far.

Toughness isn't part of this thread. It's about injury trends.

 

[Sabertooth]

Guys who come into the league as injury prone either become "not injury Prone" or become "not NFL players" pretty quickly. Ted Thompson's first draft pick with Green Bay is an example of the former. Shaun Rogers is an example of the latter.

 

[butcher boy]

You also have to factor in how tough players are. Guys like Gore and Roethlisberger play through pain, while guys like Mathews develop reputations for taking themselves out of games at the first sign of it.

It amuses me that you point to Gore vs Mathews when Mathews has missed a grand total of ONE more game than Gore over the entire time their careers have overlapped.

The problem you're having with this is that you're trying to quantify toughness when combined with being injury prone. Give Mathews Gore's toughness and I assure you he plays through a lot of the injuries he's faced so far.

Toughness isn't part of this thread. It's about injury trends.

Disagree. Toughness is one of the many variables to look at when determining how prone a guy is to miss time due to injury.

 

[MAC_32]

You also have to factor in how tough players are. Guys like Gore and Roethlisberger play through pain, while guys like Mathews develop reputations for taking themselves out of games at the first sign of it.

It amuses me that you point to Gore vs Mathews when Mathews has missed a grand total of ONE more game than Gore over the entire time their careers have overlapped.

The problem you're having with this is that you're trying to quantify toughness when combined with being injury prone. Give Mathews Gore's toughness and I assure you he plays through a lot of the injuries he's faced so far.

Toughness isn't part of this thread. It's about injury trends.

Toughness is a part of injury trends, it's why I've never drafted Beanie Wells since he got to the league. It's a lot harder to quantify so you have to be more careful and sometimes players characterized as soft that aren't come back with a vengance because they have a point to prove, but it's absolutely a part of this.

 

[habsfan]

You also have to factor in how tough players are. Guys like Gore and Roethlisberger play through pain, while guys like Mathews develop reputations for taking themselves out of games at the first sign of it.

It amuses me that you point to Gore vs Mathews when Mathews has missed a grand total of ONE more game than Gore over the entire time their careers have overlapped.

The problem you're having with this is that you're trying to quantify toughness when combined with being injury prone. Give Mathews Gore's toughness and I assure you he plays through a lot of the injuries he's faced so far.

Toughness isn't part of this thread. It's about injury trends.

Toughness is a part of injury trends, it's why I've never drafted Beanie Wells since he got to the league. It's a lot harder to quantify so you have to be more careful and sometimes players characterized as soft that aren't come back with a vengance because they have a point to prove, but it's absolutely a part of this.

I seem to recall Beanie playing hurt (and being reasonably productive) most of the year.

 

[MAC_32]

You also have to factor in how tough players are. Guys like Gore and Roethlisberger play through pain, while guys like Mathews develop reputations for taking themselves out of games at the first sign of it.

It amuses me that you point to Gore vs Mathews when Mathews has missed a grand total of ONE more game than Gore over the entire time their careers have overlapped.

The problem you're having with this is that you're trying to quantify toughness when combined with being injury prone. Give Mathews Gore's toughness and I assure you he plays through a lot of the injuries he's faced so far.

Toughness isn't part of this thread. It's about injury trends.

Toughness is a part of injury trends, it's why I've never drafted Beanie Wells since he got to the league. It's a lot harder to quantify so you have to be more careful and sometimes players characterized as soft that aren't come back with a vengance because they have a point to prove, but it's absolutely a part of this.

I seem to recall Beanie playing hurt (and being reasonably productive) most of the year.

He was banged up (again), rarely practiced, then sometimes played and sometimes didn't and when you expected him to have a big game he didn't and when you expected him to not have a big game he did (St. Louis withstanding). This is consistent with his game dating back to college.I don't know how hurt he really was last year, but I know he developed a reputation for over exaggerating his injuries in college and it seems like it's carried over to the pros as the same stuff he went through at Ohio St is similar to what I've read since he's gotten to Arizona. The problem is he can't rely on his superior ability in the pros as the playing field was leveled out. This is why he can't sustain a high level of play for an extended period of time. Just like every other year, I'll look for him over the bye weeks after his current owner dumps him, especially as I keep ending up with Ryan Williams late.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

So I'd say that in general players who are both tall and don't have the vision to avoid the big hits are going to end up with more than their fair share of injuries and could fairly be described as 'injury prone.'

True, Barry Sanders never had a serious injury. Short + great vision.

 

[flc735]

yes

is everyone exactly the same? does every one have the exact same bone strength, tendon strength, flexibility ect...? obviously no, they dont and that means some players are more prone to injury than others. there are other factors, like playing style, past injury history, freak events ect... so it's very tough to predict but you can make assumptions pretty accurately when there is an overwhelming amount of evidence like dmac, who seems to get hurt every year is more likely to get hurt than fitzgerald, who was never injured as far as i know

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

I think it was clinton portis who used to be described as injury prone until making it through a couple full seasons got him described as 'rock solid', or something like that, in fantasy drafts.

 

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Let's start here:

Are there any resources/databases that catalog injury types and weeks missed?

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

sounds like football outsiders keeps a database like that.

googled this:

http://www.esquire.com/cm/esquire/data/Dangers-of-the-Game-Draft-Esquire.pdf

 

[Fensalk]

Roethlisberger has been injury prone and rather brittle. He's missed many games to injury, and also attempted to play through concussions with awful results. Roethlisberger has only played in 16 regular season games once. Peyton Manning was an iron man until his neck injury by comparison.

Its safe to say Ben will probably miss a game this season yet again. His history is just that way.

 

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sounds like football outsiders keeps a database like that.googled this:http://www.esquire.com/cm/esquire/data/Dangers-of-the-Game-Draft-Esquire.pdf

Damn that was a cool read. Nice find. I wish we had access to the raw data in that database. This would be easy.... They assess the likelihood of retirement after injury, but they appear to have stopped short of breaking down the likelihood of repeat injury.