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Instinctive's Most Divergent Projections - Upside players to take a second look at (1 Viewer)

Just Win Baby

Footballguy
I think I agree, but it's another one I gotta look at. 

Two things are bugging me:

1. He was pretty up and down post-injury

2. I thought he only played like 13 games between COVID and injury

So on the one hand, I think the projection looks better when I see only 13 games...but on the other hand it was really like 4-5 good/great games and a bunch of duds, which feels like a miss versus the spirit of what I was forecasting to happen (a more consistent high-target role). 
He played 15 games.

 

LawFitz

Footballguy
Alright SP fam. It's been a while since I have done this exercise, what with finishing grad school and having a fairly time-intensive job, but I used a month of time off this year to get back to my old habits and create a full projection set for all 32 teams' QBs, 1-3 RBs, 2-3 WRs, and a TE. A couple teams I did with multiple QBs (SFO, CHI), some I only did one RB (e.g., TEN), some I did no TEs. For all teams, I project out total passing game stats and running game stats based on attempts/game and efficiency and then divvy it up amongst the fantasy players plus one player per team called "Other runners/receivers," so the totals make sense.

The efficiency stats are created through a combination of historical data for an individual player as well as their coach + NFL averages, focused on the last 3 years unless I see a reason for exception (rare but it happens).

I'm not great with college players and don't have a massive robust database or anything, so that's mostly what I think + the NFL averages for rookies in similar draft capital.

All that said: I tend to find my big outliers vs consensus and such with this exercise, and those guys become the people I revolve my drafts around. 14-4 years ago, it was the basis for about a decade of success in high stakes leagues that helped me pay for college. Some of these projections end up WAY OUT THERE - and rarely dead on. But they help really identify opportunities and I trust them in that sense. ALL of these are 16 game projections. They are NOT adjusted for the 17th game. All my historical data is in 16 game sets, so I stuck with that so I can compare them to old results. Also, NONE of this accounts for PPR. Because PPR is a stupid way to play. Come at me. 🔥 🔥 🔥

Without further ado, here are the highlights (no TEs - they pretty much ended up mirroring most rankings):

Quarterbacks:

I have two players that appear to be outliers as measured against FBG: Stafford high at #3 and Josh Allen low at #7.

1. Matt Stafford: 656 attempts, 5445 yards, 33 TDs, 13 INTs, 112 rush yards

The major driver here is Stafford's attempts, combined with an 8.3 YPA. This would be below the 8.6 career high YPA for Stafford and within striking distance of his recent top years with Bevell in the high 7s, and the 3rd most attempts he's ever had. It's just barely more attempts for McVay than the 2019 Rams. Without Akers, I think they have to tilt pass heavy and use the short passing game as a de facto run game. You'll see this key factor come up again later on. Includes a little regression to a more normal TD rate of 4%.

2. Josh Allen: 560 attempts, 4200 yards, 25 TDs, 11 INTs, 572 rush yards, 7 rush TDs

A little regression to 7.5 YPA here, and a very slight downtick in pass attempts (1/game), and a regression to a more normal TD rate of 4.5%. I am giving him a bit better YPC on the ground game and maintaining his fairly historic rate of rushing for TDs. Story here is pretty simple, and I wouldn't be that surprised if this is one of the bigger misses I have and Josh Allen is just that talented. But I think they had excellent playcalling and a pretty weak passing defense schedule, and those things are combined with a tougher slate this year and me just not 100% buying it.

Running Backs:

Some interesting choices here, with my #1 as Dalvin Cook, Antonio Gibson up at RB5, and CEH at RB7. I don't really have many guys down lower than consensus by much, and Cook is in basically everyone's top three anyway, so we'll look at Gibson and Clyde.

1. Antonio Gibson: 256 for 1254 yards, 12 TDs, 77 targets, 61 recs, 445 yards, and 2 more TDs

I've got Gibson with a big ole workload coming his way, and he maintains a crisp 4.9 YPC. Less than double the receiving load, and in line with roughly his last 8 games. I'm also taking into account the turf toe and improved QB play this year to give him more leads (thus more carries) and more efficiency (uncommon, but certainly both numbers well within realistic range).

2. Clyde Edwards-Helaire: 240 for 1224 yards, 10 TDs, 74 targets, 48 recs, 481 yards, and 2 more TDs

Post-hype sleeper syndrome for the big time here. Even FBG has this guy at RB16?!?!? Here's what I see in Kansas City; I see a highly pedigreed back with build and measurables similar to previous monster Andy Reid fantasy backs, I see a new and significantly improved offensive line, I see a fairly complex offensive system that now has a non-COVID offseason of work, and I see a ton of TD opportunity...plus he did it for like the first 6 games last year anyway! I think I may be underestimating TDs and he could lead the league in total TDs.

Wide Receivers:

Headline here is that my deal spit out Cooper Kupp as WR1 this year, then Mike Williams at WR7 (Keenan at WR6 too). I have Tyreek Hill all the way down at WR12 and Diggs at WR15 (both seem to be top 3 everywhere else). Diggs is low because of the same regression in Allen (minor) and a step back in targets from his 166 because Sanders is in town and Davis is good (low is still 140 targets for 98 recs, 1246 yards, and 8 TDs). Hill is purely TD regression, I have him at 9 instead of 15 (his career TD rate would be 10 TDs) as CEH gets to run a few more in. So we will focus on the two upside guys.

1. Cooper Kupp: 184 targets, 132/1690/13 line

Keeps his TD rate at 2018 and 2019 levels (so not a crazy outlier) and his YPT is jumping back up between 2018 (9.4) and 2019 (8.2) levels. This assumption is based on Kupp getting to play with Stafford instead of Goff. Most importantly, if the Rams throw the ball 650 times, Kupp's 28% target rate is the next biggest assumption. This is WAY out there, and I have Woods with a pretty big line on a 23% target share, but I'm seeing Kupp's opportunity to be huge here. I WANT pieces of the Rams this year.

2. Mike Williams: 150 targets, 90/1391/10 line

oooooo baby this guy. Everyone knows the issue is injuries. Guess what? They play football. Guys get hurt. And then they don't. If Herbert is as good as many think, or as decent as I think he'll be, there's a lot of room in this new offense with an improved line to boot. Parham seems to be well-liked, but he's not a target hog. I'm giving our boy Mike Williams 25% of the targets (less than Keenan, but admittedly still a lot, in part because they don't have much else outside of him, Allen, and Ekeler).

Discussion time - suggested topics:

So, let's see what people think here. Too many targets for the big wideouts? Where do you think those shares are for those teams? Who's getting the targets instead? Are YPT or YPC or YPA numbers off for folks in a way you can point to? Do you think any of these offenses are going to have a different amount of plays on the run or pass side?

Please don't bring up health. We get it, some of you think some guys are injury prone. My greatest strength in this hobby for over a decade has been assuming that injuries are distributed equally and acting accordingly.

Need your 2022 calls, please. 🙂
 

Instinctive

Footballguy
Alright SP fam. It's been a while since I have done this exercise, what with finishing grad school and having a fairly time-intensive job, but I used a month of time off this year to get back to my old habits and create a full projection set for all 32 teams' QBs, 1-3 RBs, 2-3 WRs, and a TE. A couple teams I did with multiple QBs (SFO, CHI), some I only did one RB (e.g., TEN), some I did no TEs. For all teams, I project out total passing game stats and running game stats based on attempts/game and efficiency and then divvy it up amongst the fantasy players plus one player per team called "Other runners/receivers," so the totals make sense.

The efficiency stats are created through a combination of historical data for an individual player as well as their coach + NFL averages, focused on the last 3 years unless I see a reason for exception (rare but it happens).

I'm not great with college players and don't have a massive robust database or anything, so that's mostly what I think + the NFL averages for rookies in similar draft capital.

All that said: I tend to find my big outliers vs consensus and such with this exercise, and those guys become the people I revolve my drafts around. 14-4 years ago, it was the basis for about a decade of success in high stakes leagues that helped me pay for college. Some of these projections end up WAY OUT THERE - and rarely dead on. But they help really identify opportunities and I trust them in that sense. ALL of these are 16 game projections. They are NOT adjusted for the 17th game. All my historical data is in 16 game sets, so I stuck with that so I can compare them to old results. Also, NONE of this accounts for PPR. Because PPR is a stupid way to play. Come at me. 🔥 🔥 🔥

Without further ado, here are the highlights (no TEs - they pretty much ended up mirroring most rankings):

Quarterbacks:

I have two players that appear to be outliers as measured against FBG: Stafford high at #3 and Josh Allen low at #7.

1. Matt Stafford: 656 attempts, 5445 yards, 33 TDs, 13 INTs, 112 rush yards

The major driver here is Stafford's attempts, combined with an 8.3 YPA. This would be below the 8.6 career high YPA for Stafford and within striking distance of his recent top years with Bevell in the high 7s, and the 3rd most attempts he's ever had. It's just barely more attempts for McVay than the 2019 Rams. Without Akers, I think they have to tilt pass heavy and use the short passing game as a de facto run game. You'll see this key factor come up again later on. Includes a little regression to a more normal TD rate of 4%.

2. Josh Allen: 560 attempts, 4200 yards, 25 TDs, 11 INTs, 572 rush yards, 7 rush TDs

A little regression to 7.5 YPA here, and a very slight downtick in pass attempts (1/game), and a regression to a more normal TD rate of 4.5%. I am giving him a bit better YPC on the ground game and maintaining his fairly historic rate of rushing for TDs. Story here is pretty simple, and I wouldn't be that surprised if this is one of the bigger misses I have and Josh Allen is just that talented. But I think they had excellent playcalling and a pretty weak passing defense schedule, and those things are combined with a tougher slate this year and me just not 100% buying it.

Running Backs:

Some interesting choices here, with my #1 as Dalvin Cook, Antonio Gibson up at RB5, and CEH at RB7. I don't really have many guys down lower than consensus by much, and Cook is in basically everyone's top three anyway, so we'll look at Gibson and Clyde.

1. Antonio Gibson: 256 for 1254 yards, 12 TDs, 77 targets, 61 recs, 445 yards, and 2 more TDs

I've got Gibson with a big ole workload coming his way, and he maintains a crisp 4.9 YPC. Less than double the receiving load, and in line with roughly his last 8 games. I'm also taking into account the turf toe and improved QB play this year to give him more leads (thus more carries) and more efficiency (uncommon, but certainly both numbers well within realistic range).

2. Clyde Edwards-Helaire: 240 for 1224 yards, 10 TDs, 74 targets, 48 recs, 481 yards, and 2 more TDs

Post-hype sleeper syndrome for the big time here. Even FBG has this guy at RB16?!?!? Here's what I see in Kansas City; I see a highly pedigreed back with build and measurables similar to previous monster Andy Reid fantasy backs, I see a new and significantly improved offensive line, I see a fairly complex offensive system that now has a non-COVID offseason of work, and I see a ton of TD opportunity...plus he did it for like the first 6 games last year anyway! I think I may be underestimating TDs and he could lead the league in total TDs.

Wide Receivers:

Headline here is that my deal spit out Cooper Kupp as WR1 this year, then Mike Williams at WR7 (Keenan at WR6 too). I have Tyreek Hill all the way down at WR12 and Diggs at WR15 (both seem to be top 3 everywhere else). Diggs is low because of the same regression in Allen (minor) and a step back in targets from his 166 because Sanders is in town and Davis is good (low is still 140 targets for 98 recs, 1246 yards, and 8 TDs). Hill is purely TD regression, I have him at 9 instead of 15 (his career TD rate would be 10 TDs) as CEH gets to run a few more in. So we will focus on the two upside guys.

1. Cooper Kupp: 184 targets, 132/1690/13 line

Keeps his TD rate at 2018 and 2019 levels (so not a crazy outlier) and his YPT is jumping back up between 2018 (9.4) and 2019 (8.2) levels. This assumption is based on Kupp getting to play with Stafford instead of Goff. Most importantly, if the Rams throw the ball 650 times, Kupp's 28% target rate is the next biggest assumption. This is WAY out there, and I have Woods with a pretty big line on a 23% target share, but I'm seeing Kupp's opportunity to be huge here. I WANT pieces of the Rams this year.

2. Mike Williams: 150 targets, 90/1391/10 line

oooooo baby this guy. Everyone knows the issue is injuries. Guess what? They play football. Guys get hurt. And then they don't. If Herbert is as good as many think, or as decent as I think he'll be, there's a lot of room in this new offense with an improved line to boot. Parham seems to be well-liked, but he's not a target hog. I'm giving our boy Mike Williams 25% of the targets (less than Keenan, but admittedly still a lot, in part because they don't have much else outside of him, Allen, and Ekeler).

Discussion time - suggested topics:

So, let's see what people think here. Too many targets for the big wideouts? Where do you think those shares are for those teams? Who's getting the targets instead? Are YPT or YPC or YPA numbers off for folks in a way you can point to? Do you think any of these offenses are going to have a different amount of plays on the run or pass side?

Please don't bring up health. We get it, some of you think some guys are injury prone. My greatest strength in this hobby for over a decade has been assuming that injuries are distributed equally and acting accordingly.

Need your 2022 calls, please. 🙂
You and me both. Started yesterday. It'll probably be a couple weeks unfortunately. Work absolutely insane.
 

tigerz

Footballguy
Alright SP fam. It's been a while since I have done this exercise, what with finishing grad school and having a fairly time-intensive job, but I used a month of time off this year to get back to my old habits and create a full projection set for all 32 teams' QBs, 1-3 RBs, 2-3 WRs, and a TE. A couple teams I did with multiple QBs (SFO, CHI), some I only did one RB (e.g., TEN), some I did no TEs. For all teams, I project out total passing game stats and running game stats based on attempts/game and efficiency and then divvy it up amongst the fantasy players plus one player per team called "Other runners/receivers," so the totals make sense.

The efficiency stats are created through a combination of historical data for an individual player as well as their coach + NFL averages, focused on the last 3 years unless I see a reason for exception (rare but it happens).

I'm not great with college players and don't have a massive robust database or anything, so that's mostly what I think + the NFL averages for rookies in similar draft capital.

All that said: I tend to find my big outliers vs consensus and such with this exercise, and those guys become the people I revolve my drafts around. 14-4 years ago, it was the basis for about a decade of success in high stakes leagues that helped me pay for college. Some of these projections end up WAY OUT THERE - and rarely dead on. But they help really identify opportunities and I trust them in that sense. ALL of these are 16 game projections. They are NOT adjusted for the 17th game. All my historical data is in 16 game sets, so I stuck with that so I can compare them to old results. Also, NONE of this accounts for PPR. Because PPR is a stupid way to play. Come at me. 🔥 🔥 🔥

Without further ado, here are the highlights (no TEs - they pretty much ended up mirroring most rankings):

Quarterbacks:

I have two players that appear to be outliers as measured against FBG: Stafford high at #3 and Josh Allen low at #7.

1. Matt Stafford: 656 attempts, 5445 yards, 33 TDs, 13 INTs, 112 rush yards

The major driver here is Stafford's attempts, combined with an 8.3 YPA. This would be below the 8.6 career high YPA for Stafford and within striking distance of his recent top years with Bevell in the high 7s, and the 3rd most attempts he's ever had. It's just barely more attempts for McVay than the 2019 Rams. Without Akers, I think they have to tilt pass heavy and use the short passing game as a de facto run game. You'll see this key factor come up again later on. Includes a little regression to a more normal TD rate of 4%.

2. Josh Allen: 560 attempts, 4200 yards, 25 TDs, 11 INTs, 572 rush yards, 7 rush TDs

A little regression to 7.5 YPA here, and a very slight downtick in pass attempts (1/game), and a regression to a more normal TD rate of 4.5%. I am giving him a bit better YPC on the ground game and maintaining his fairly historic rate of rushing for TDs. Story here is pretty simple, and I wouldn't be that surprised if this is one of the bigger misses I have and Josh Allen is just that talented. But I think they had excellent playcalling and a pretty weak passing defense schedule, and those things are combined with a tougher slate this year and me just not 100% buying it.

Running Backs:

Some interesting choices here, with my #1 as Dalvin Cook, Antonio Gibson up at RB5, and CEH at RB7. I don't really have many guys down lower than consensus by much, and Cook is in basically everyone's top three anyway, so we'll look at Gibson and Clyde.

1. Antonio Gibson: 256 for 1254 yards, 12 TDs, 77 targets, 61 recs, 445 yards, and 2 more TDs

I've got Gibson with a big ole workload coming his way, and he maintains a crisp 4.9 YPC. Less than double the receiving load, and in line with roughly his last 8 games. I'm also taking into account the turf toe and improved QB play this year to give him more leads (thus more carries) and more efficiency (uncommon, but certainly both numbers well within realistic range).

2. Clyde Edwards-Helaire: 240 for 1224 yards, 10 TDs, 74 targets, 48 recs, 481 yards, and 2 more TDs

Post-hype sleeper syndrome for the big time here. Even FBG has this guy at RB16?!?!? Here's what I see in Kansas City; I see a highly pedigreed back with build and measurables similar to previous monster Andy Reid fantasy backs, I see a new and significantly improved offensive line, I see a fairly complex offensive system that now has a non-COVID offseason of work, and I see a ton of TD opportunity...plus he did it for like the first 6 games last year anyway! I think I may be underestimating TDs and he could lead the league in total TDs.

Wide Receivers:

Headline here is that my deal spit out Cooper Kupp as WR1 this year, then Mike Williams at WR7 (Keenan at WR6 too). I have Tyreek Hill all the way down at WR12 and Diggs at WR15 (both seem to be top 3 everywhere else). Diggs is low because of the same regression in Allen (minor) and a step back in targets from his 166 because Sanders is in town and Davis is good (low is still 140 targets for 98 recs, 1246 yards, and 8 TDs). Hill is purely TD regression, I have him at 9 instead of 15 (his career TD rate would be 10 TDs) as CEH gets to run a few more in. So we will focus on the two upside guys.

1. Cooper Kupp: 184 targets, 132/1690/13 line

Keeps his TD rate at 2018 and 2019 levels (so not a crazy outlier) and his YPT is jumping back up between 2018 (9.4) and 2019 (8.2) levels. This assumption is based on Kupp getting to play with Stafford instead of Goff. Most importantly, if the Rams throw the ball 650 times, Kupp's 28% target rate is the next biggest assumption. This is WAY out there, and I have Woods with a pretty big line on a 23% target share, but I'm seeing Kupp's opportunity to be huge here. I WANT pieces of the Rams this year.

2. Mike Williams: 150 targets, 90/1391/10 line

oooooo baby this guy. Everyone knows the issue is injuries. Guess what? They play football. Guys get hurt. And then they don't. If Herbert is as good as many think, or as decent as I think he'll be, there's a lot of room in this new offense with an improved line to boot. Parham seems to be well-liked, but he's not a target hog. I'm giving our boy Mike Williams 25% of the targets (less than Keenan, but admittedly still a lot, in part because they don't have much else outside of him, Allen, and Ekeler).

Discussion time - suggested topics:

So, let's see what people think here. Too many targets for the big wideouts? Where do you think those shares are for those teams? Who's getting the targets instead? Are YPT or YPC or YPA numbers off for folks in a way you can point to? Do you think any of these offenses are going to have a different amount of plays on the run or pass side?

Please don't bring up health. We get it, some of you think some guys are injury prone. My greatest strength in this hobby for over a decade has been assuming that injuries are distributed equally and acting accordingly.

Need your 2022 calls, please. 🙂
You and me both. Started yesterday. It'll probably be a couple weeks unfortunately. Work absolutely insane.
Any insights for this year?
 

cloppbeast

Footballguy
I'm a relative newbie but here's my take:

Doing your own projections I'm sure historically gave you a big advantage but my hunch is that there's been a proliferation (in recent years) of data and scouting driven analysis that is catching up to the potential value in having good scouting and data analysis.

Just a quick question, who's the last WR you'd take before him?
I used to do projections like this when I played redraft. I think it's good for identifying outliers with volume, efficiency or tds. For teams like the Rams it works well because theyre a bunch of known commodities. But what about Green Bay? It's anybody's guess.

I think if you'd combine the film grinders scouting with a model such as this, you'd get the best results. The projections after all are a reflection of one's own input.
 

Instinctive

Footballguy
I'm a little over a third of the way through, but know some folks are drafting. Just looking at stats, without actually converting to fantasy points yet:

  • AJ Dillon is gonna be a beast
  • David Njoku is a really interesting play
  • DJ Moore is undervalued again
  • I think I'm gonna have a lot of Zach Ertz on my teams
 

pollardsvision

Footballguy
I'm a little over a third of the way through, but know some folks are drafting. Just looking at stats, without actually converting to fantasy points yet:

  • AJ Dillon is gonna be a beast
  • David Njoku is a really interesting play
  • DJ Moore is undervalued again
  • I think I'm gonna have a lot of Zach Ertz on my teams
I'd love for this to be the case. I'd love to get him. But he's going at WR14, best I can tell. Right behind Aj Brown, Higgins, Pittman, and Allen. My information could be off.

Which of those guys should not be going ahead of him?

I don't disagree. Just asking. I'm not seeing what others are on Brown and Higgins. I think I prefer DJ over them. I'm not sure I could put him over Pittman or Allen though (maybe Allen, but would just be because of age).

Also wondering what separates DJ from Terry McLaurin. Both productive young players going from atrocious QB's to almost serviceable QB's in terrible offenses.
 
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