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Interesting Move By Denver (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Toads
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David Yudkin
Footballguy
When has Shanny invested a first rounder in a RB?1988: 9-6 Reggie Ware RB Auburn
1989: 6-17 Doug Lloyd RB North Dakota State, 8-10 Derrick Gainer RB Florida A&M
1995: 6-25 Terrell Davis RB Georgia
1996: 3-4 Detron Smith RB Texas A&M, 7-26 L.T. Levine RB Kansas
1998: 4-4 Curtis Alexander RB Alabama, 5-5 Chris Howard RB Michigan
1999: 4-32 Olandis Gary RB Georgia
2000: 6-23 Mike Anderson RB Utah
2002: 2-19 Clinton Portis RB Miami (FL)
2003: 4-11 Quentin Griffin RB Oklahoma
2004: 2-9 Tatum Bell RB Oklahoma State, 7-46 Brandon Miree RB Pittsburgh
2005: 3-37 Maurice Clarett RB Ohio State
I'm not saying they WON'T take White (or any other RB), only that it has not been Shanny's M.O.
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perry147
Footballguy
You have to believe Denver wants a WR or TE, with the recent trade of Jeb Putzier they need to address this issue. Stephen Alexander is the 'other' TE on their roster but he is a backup and should not be the starter.Edit: ole Jeb was released not traded.Giving up the 29th pick in the first round, a third rounder in '06 and a fourth rounder in '07 in the Abraham to Atlanta trade.
They are looking hard at who for the 15th pick?
Who is Denver targeting at #15?
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LHUCKS
Footballguy
They can get either with the #22...White may not be there.You have to believe Denver wants a WR or TE, with the recent trade of Jeb Putzier they need to address this issue. Stephen Alexander is the 'other' TE on their roster but he is a backup and should not be the starter.Giving up the 29th pick in the first round, a third rounder in '06 and a fourth rounder in '07 in the Abraham to Atlanta trade.
They are looking hard at who for the 15th pick?
Who is Denver targeting at #15?
Toads
Footballguy
You have to believe that that is a true statement....that the #2 WR is available at #22 or the #2 TE (Pope?) is available at #22. In either case, the WR's in the first round of this year's draft would have been considered as second rounders in last year's draft. This is not a strong year for WR's and certainly not to considered at #15.This year's strength is RB, QB, TE, and LB and Huff.They can get either with the #22...White may not be there.You have to believe Denver wants a WR or TE, with the recent trade of Jeb Putzier they need to address this issue. Stephen Alexander is the 'other' TE on their roster but he is a backup and should not be the starter.Giving up the 29th pick in the first round, a third rounder in '06 and a fourth rounder in '07 in the Abraham to Atlanta trade.
They are looking hard at who for the 15th pick?
Who is Denver targeting at #15?
Denver is good a looking ahead a year in advance to access a future draft's strength. I'm thinking that they are looking at a position of strength in this draft and that the draft has some real difference makers in the top 12-15 picks.
massraider
Footballguy
I don't think they're targeting anyone. I think Atlanta offered them a value deal, and they took it.
A third and a 4th next year to go from 29 to 15? Too good a deal to pass up.
I'd be surprised if they kept both picks.
A third and a 4th next year to go from 29 to 15? Too good a deal to pass up.
I'd be surprised if they kept both picks.
UnknownCoach
Footballguy
It was really a move by Atlanta with Denver the beneficiary. Though Denver surely has their eye on a few players.
We know from the Ricky Williams and TO talk that they want an offensive playmaker. Vernon Davis or one of the RBs are both real possibilities. They could be going in another direction just as easily though. Denver does their own grading of players and they've made more than a few surprise picks before.
We know from the Ricky Williams and TO talk that they want an offensive playmaker. Vernon Davis or one of the RBs are both real possibilities. They could be going in another direction just as easily though. Denver does their own grading of players and they've made more than a few surprise picks before.
David Yudkin
Footballguy
I could see Denver packaging their first round picks to climb even higher in the first round for whomever they are targeting.Is it even conceivable they could get a lucrative enough package to make a run at Bush?
Toads
Footballguy
I would be surprise if they keep both picks too, especially considering their cap room and what it takes to sign two first rounders.My bet is that they will continue to trade up in a year where some of the #1-10 picks have new coaches with multiple holes to fill in what is shaping up to be a real strong and deep second round of the draft.
At the #15, ProFootball Weekly see's the straight player ranking, regardless of position, this way:
#12 Sims, LB #2
#13 Wembley, LB#3
#14 White, RB #2
#15 Jonathan Joseph, CB #2
#16 Maroney, RB#3
#17 Santonio Holmes, WR#1
#18 Kiwanuka, DL #4, DE#2
#19 Chad Greenway, LB #4
Denver is looking to fill DE bigtime and Wembly, White/Maroney or Holmes are gonna be there for Denver at #15. Maroney fit's Denver better than White fits Denver.....a zone blocker's dream.
If they have Holmes rated that highly, he's probably gonna be there...but I don't think that they do.
Kiwanuka seems the best bet as he's the #2 rated DE. If they figure that Wembley gets to the QB better than than Kiwanuka, it's Wembley.
#17
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UnknownCoach
Footballguy
I would think Bush does too much dancing and would cost too much for Denver. They havent given a RB a lucrative contract since TD.
Toads
Footballguy
That was actually a thought when I initially looked at it....KUBS takes the trade down and Shanny gets pick of the litter.When you think about it, many of the teams drafting in the 1-10 slots are probably going to be looking to trade down and DEN is in a position to trade up into any of those slots and really do some cherry picking at the top of this draft.
No.I still have several friends working in the industry either for NFL franchises and or as agents. After the Saints signed Brees, I spoke to someone that works on the football operations side of the house for that organization. The Saints have shopped their #2 overall pick. The asking price to move up from the 7-12 pick range was a legit/every down starting player paired with this year's first round draft pick. For a reference point think about the Lions at pick 9. It would take the Lions parting with Roy Williams and their #9 to get up to the #2. The Broncos would need to produce each of their first rounders; a future first rounder and a blue chip player to climb that high. I just do not see that happening. You do not trade out of the top 6 of this year's draft, given the talent available in V. Davis, Hawk; M. Williams; Hawk; Bush; QB, unless you are getting a known, young and talented player PLUS a truckload of picks. The difference between the player available from 1-6 and the guys between 12-20 is substantial especially this season. I just do not see it happening.
harrycarey
Footballguy
It could be possible for them to package some picks to jump into the top 10 for Mario Williams or Vernon Davis.ComebackKurt
Footballguy
You could be onto something here...According to the draft pick value chart(which isn' t the tell all, end all method) the value of the Broncos two first rounders is a combined 1830 pts(1050 for 15th, 780 for 22nd) which would nearly equal the value (1800) of the 4th overall selection in the first round(NY Jets). So it is possible for the Broncos to use these two picks to climb the ladder for a big run this year. The biggest question is if they trade up, WHOM do they climb the ladder to get?
Obviously at the 4 to 5 range includes all the afore mentioned guys like VYoung(maybe) Mario Williams, Vernon davis & they wouldn't need to trade up to get a guy like Deangelo Williams or L White(IMO) and don't have a need for Hawk. Dbrick might be a possibility.
Would it surprise anyone to see them throw a player or future first rounder to equal the value of getting to that top spot? Maybe not... bush is a possibility IMO.
Now smart money says that won't happen and if they trade up I think they are looking at someone who has slipped to 4 or 5, say d'brick or mwilliams... i think they stay put and take chad jackson at 15 and look at the penn state d-end at 22, just my 2 cents.
On a different note the draft pick value chart shows that the Broncos made out like a bandit in that Jets trade as we all have already agreed...
29th pick(640), 3rd rounder(128), future 4th(40-80) totals 810 - 850 pts
15 th pick totals 1050 pts
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Adrian Peterson
Footballguy
i think they go wr - chad jackson or santonio.
The Football Freak
Footballguy
I think they want V Davis. They need a playmaking TE and with all the bootlegs and roll outs that Plummer runs Davis would be money. I can also see a defensive pick to take their def from very good to dominant. AJ Hawk could be interesting as well as that stage of their defense could be improved a bit.
Kevin Ashcraft
Footballguy
The thing that makes this a coup for Denver is that they move just in front of two division rivals, SD and KC @ 19 and 20. Thats worth just as much as whoever they get. All three rivals have soem of teh same weaknesses, such as WR.
Barry Jive and The Uptown Five
Footballguy
Yes, the Broncos did make out well in the ATL deal. But it's not unprecedented.
From reviewing 1st RD trades using the Value chart, deals usually fall into a certain pattern:
1. Team moving up to target a player - This team usually pays a premium from the Pick value perspective (+ 10-20%)
2. Team looking to trade down (doesn't want to pay a first RD contract, looking to add extra picks, player valued at the current pick position is not an interst to the team, whatever) can usually find a trade partner, but they accept less than "face value." (- 10-20%)
I think this is where ATL was this year. They needed to move down to get a late 1st RD pick to facilitate the Abraham deal. They accepted a a trade with discounted value. This has happened more than once in recent history (since 2000).
some examples:
2003
(1) SD traded #15 to PHI for # 30 & #62 (2nd Rd)
SD gave 1050
PHI gave 940
-110 for SD
(2) KC gave #16 to PIT for #27/92/200
KC gave 1000
PIT gave 872
-128 for KC
2002
(3) WAS gave #21 to NE for #32/96/234
WAS gave 875
NE gave 716
-159 for KC
There are others, but it not completely uncommon. It's more about getting the "most value" you can given you needs / objectives.
There are as many examples of teams paying +200-ish points to move up as well as a bunch of trade that are within +/-50 on the value chart.
This deal was not a "raping". But instead a good deal where both teams got what they wanted.
From reviewing 1st RD trades using the Value chart, deals usually fall into a certain pattern:
1. Team moving up to target a player - This team usually pays a premium from the Pick value perspective (+ 10-20%)
2. Team looking to trade down (doesn't want to pay a first RD contract, looking to add extra picks, player valued at the current pick position is not an interst to the team, whatever) can usually find a trade partner, but they accept less than "face value." (- 10-20%)
I think this is where ATL was this year. They needed to move down to get a late 1st RD pick to facilitate the Abraham deal. They accepted a a trade with discounted value. This has happened more than once in recent history (since 2000).
some examples:
2003
(1) SD traded #15 to PHI for # 30 & #62 (2nd Rd)
SD gave 1050
PHI gave 940
-110 for SD
(2) KC gave #16 to PIT for #27/92/200
KC gave 1000
PIT gave 872
-128 for KC
2002
(3) WAS gave #21 to NE for #32/96/234
WAS gave 875
NE gave 716
-159 for KC
There are others, but it not completely uncommon. It's more about getting the "most value" you can given you needs / objectives.
There are as many examples of teams paying +200-ish points to move up as well as a bunch of trade that are within +/-50 on the value chart.
This deal was not a "raping". But instead a good deal where both teams got what they wanted.
Sinrman
Footballguy
White in a Denver uniform is just gold. I would take him #1 overall in rookie drafts if that were the case. Heck, I'd consider it NOW, even with us not knowing who drafts him. Bush has a ton of talent, but will be stuck in Houston, who is going nowhere right now. White will slip to the teens, and a stronger team will nab him. He will have a better start than Bush, and perhaps a better career overall. People forget that White was quite talented at USC as well, and scored quite a lot there.
But I agree with LHUCKS in that IF White were available at #15, and Denver hasn't traded that pick away, they go with White. He would be unreal in that offense. And poor, poor Tatum Bell owners will collectively cry themselves to sleep...
But I agree with LHUCKS in that IF White were available at #15, and Denver hasn't traded that pick away, they go with White. He would be unreal in that offense. And poor, poor Tatum Bell owners will collectively cry themselves to sleep...
Buckeyedawgs
Footballguy
I see Denver taking Davis with 15 if he is still there. Though he's not expected to get past Rams. A RB if not.
Gopher State
Footballguy
I see them taking Jackson first and then looking at TE
I think he's a near mortal lock to go the SF.I just can"t see them passing on the local kid, who would fit well into that system. Especially knowing that they made a real run at Jamal and let Anderson walk. That to me shows that Denver mgmnt feels they need to address the RB position.
After Bush goes, who would potentially be the two other teams that may snag DWill and LenDale before #15?
After Bush goes, who would potentially be the two other teams that may snag DWill and LenDale before #15?
Gold Plated Nails
Footballguy
#22 + #15 + 1st RD Pick 2007 = Reggie Bush = Super Bowl.
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Texasmouth
Footballguy
Clinton Portis part II.....maybe even better. With Dayne there, Bush doesn't have to be the savior like he would in Houston. Denver all ready has a solid team in place and he would be a perfect place.I think Bush in that offense would be ridiculous. I don't know that you could pass this deal up if you are the Texans, it just makes too much sense. I don't think this deal has even been discussed in real life though....
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
They trade their two first rounders to the Bills for the #8 and Eric Moulds. 
There are certain level of players you do not trade yourself out of getting. These are the athlete/football player/difference makers. A draft only has a finite number of these players. Usually, they are the top 3-5 picks. This year the draft has several at unique positions, MLB & TE, as well as a couple of usual suspects, OL; DE; RB and QB. QB is up for debate depending on your feelings about the individual players but let's stay on course.No team is going to move out of one of those spots for more picks especially if those picks are A.) Each out of the Top 10 B) Each out of the Top 15 C.) Each out of the Top 20. The players available at those picks, which is in theory, are good football players that meet a positional need as compared to the blue chip players that change the entire dynamic of a team and or game. There are busts and diamonds in the rough but hindsight is always 20-20. On the front end this is how talent and picks are evaluated. The Saints hold the #2 overall pick. A cornerstone, franchise player is available to them. For a minute forget the R. Leaf, A. Smith, C. Enis and other NFL busts. Forget your working knowledge of hindsight. Just for discussion sake agree the #2 is a legit player. That same player is not available this year at 7, 8, 9 nor is his value recouped by pairing picks 15 and 22 or 12 and 31, for example. I have seen the trade value and pick chart. I worked with the damn thing for a couple years. It is a tool used by a GM and or coach to augment their decision. It is not the end all be all. Basic premise and or feeling is that you draft difference makers every chance you get. Those players win games for you. Football players fill out your roster and compliment the effort. The Saints risk losing their chance to draft a difference maker the minute they find themselves drafting at a point outside of the range that would see them net Williams, Ferguson, Hawk, Davis and or Bush. That is not a slight against someone like M. Huff or anyone else in the draft. Those 5 players along with 1, 2 or 3 of the QB are the best football players in the draft. Thus, the Saints are only going to forfeit that opportunity to take a once in a 10 year prospect by asking for a hell of a lot in return. Could the Saints move down to the 4th, 5th or 6th spot? Yes, that is possible and the asking price will not be as high. Will they drop beyond that point without commanding a king's ransom? Absolutely not. Two mid to late first rounders DO NOT EQUAL the football player available with the #2 overall pick. This is not Madden nor is it a dynasty FF draft. However, a polished professional player would add tremendous value to such a trade. That player is a known quality that can contribute immediately, while filling a positional need and freeing up another draft pick. That is the only way a team like Houston and or the Saints trade beyond the 5th or 6th pick. If they can get a truck load of draft picks and a good/solid player in a package deal, then they consider moving down. If it is just a series of picks, there is no way I see it happen. Look at what it took the Giants to get E. Manning from the Chargers. The Chargers stayed at the very top of the draft and received more picks from the Giants. Some precedent was set with that move. It is not unrealistic to think the Saints are asking for a player along with a pick(s) to drop beyond a certain point, which I would identify as the 6th overall pick.
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
Actually, there's some evidence that the top players in the draft are not worth the huge contracts that they receive and are more of a detriment to the teams that draft them. So I would possibly dispute the notion that those top picks are so golden. Let's just look at the top 5 picks from 2001-2003 (I think this is fair since it allows us to evaluate how guys have panned out).Michael Vick (Arguably panned out although still overate IMO)
Leonard Davis (Bust)
Gerard Warren (Bust)
Justin Smith (Solid player)
Tomlinson (Stud)
David Carr (Bust)
Julius Peppers (Stud)
Joey Harrington (Bust)
Mike Williams (Bust)
Quentin Jammer (Highly overpaid at minimum, possibly a bust)
Carson Palmer (Stud)
Charles Rodgers (Bust)
Andre Johnson (Has shown flashes, but overall average production and overpaid)
Dewayne Robertson (I'll be honest, can't say here. I'd say solid but overpaid)
Terence Newman (Overated and overpaid)
Out of those 15 guys, I'd say 4 are difference makers, 3 or 4 are solid players and the rest are absolute busts. That's a lot of cash to guys that don't turn out to be difference makers. I would imagine the potential to score a stud in the top 5 probably is higher than any other grouping of 5 picks, but I doubt that it's that much higher than other positions in the first round and the risk is a LOT higher.
diesel7982
Footballguy
Id say your rating system is incredibly biased to your point. Vick's career winning percentage is well over 60% isnt it? And the top $$$ draw in the NFL?
Leonard Davis isnt a "bust", hes an excellent guard playing out of position at LT, where hes playing alright.
Gerard Warren just signed a huge deal to stay with the Broncos. Calling anyone drafted by the Browns under Butch Davis a "bust" is a disservice. That coaching staff was a nightmare.
Way Way too early to judge Carr
Way way WAY too early to judge Mike Williams.
Andre Johnson has shown he can be a dominant NFL WR when he gets the ball. Unfortunately he draws triple coverage with no other threat on the field and Carr is usually on his back.
Newman played pretty well last year.
Of the 15 you listed, 2 are obvious "Busts" (Harrington and Rogers)...and you might notice a slight connection between the two. I think its unfair to even use Rogers in the comparision, as his production has severely been affected by drug problems and injuries. Where he was drafted had no affect on his personality.
A better comparision might be to look at the draft from like 94-99 or so. All of those guys have had time to really establish what they are.
Chaos Commish
Footballguy
He played great and should have been in the pro bowl. After Champ no corner is playing better. Not McAlister, not Clements. No one. He was a great pick and he's paying dividends.
the hairy scotsman
Footballguy
Vince Young
If they want Young, they're gonna need to move up some more.Not in the habit of quoting myself but...For the sake of discussion and shedding some light on the topic at hand through personal experience as someone that worked in a scouting department and as a player rep I made this point during my reply.
It is VERY EASY to use hindsight and build an argument for and or against what I wrote. For example, I could dig up every Top 5 pick that had a career longer than the NFL average for his position; that never spent time on the injury report; contributed to the team and had an amazing ROI both on and off the field for the franchise. I could then do the same for players between picks 5-10; 11-15 and so on...Not sure it adds much value, as I forfeited the use of that maxim in the original reply.
An NFL team does not have the luxury of hindsight and to prove a point on why Madden trades do not work in the real football world I suggested the topic be brought along with the same limitation. More picks do not equal more value in an NFL trade. You are not increases your odds of finding the next great player by trading your #2 overall and picking up a pair of picks resting between 15-32. You are decreasing your chances or, at least, that is how a franchise looks at the equation.
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