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Iran Launches "Large Scale Attack" on Israel (?) (1 Viewer)

Dinsy Ejotuz

Dinsy Ejotuz

Footballguy
Iran has reportedly launched a big drone attack at Israel. To be confirmed, but seems ~solid.

ETA: seemingly confirmed by the Israelis, but since the drones (not missiles) were launched from Iran they will take hours [ETA2: 9 hours] to arrive (and loss of life should be limited).
 
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This is obviously just speculation, but I've seen quite a bit of scuttlebutt that the idea behind this is to use the drones to tie up Israel's missile defense, coordinated with conventional missile strikes. I don't know if such a thing is even possible, of course, but it sounds vaguely plausible to me. Otherwise this just seems like an empty gesture.
 
TLEF316 said:
Ugh. Here we go.
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Keep in mind that Iran made a very weak, half-hearted "attack" on a US military base after we assassinated their #2 military guy. Countries naturally feel obliged to respond to stuff, even when they don't want escalation. Sometimes you have to just let stuff like this go as long as it's mostly harmless.

Then there's events like 9/11 and 10/7 that you can't let go.

Obviously let's all hope for the former.
 
I think Noah Smith's recent article on the "WWIII" aspect of all of this is basically accurate. This one particular Iranian attack may end up not amounting to much, but it's part of a general global conflict that is already well underway even though we seem not to realize it.

Where I differ a little from Smith is that I tend to see China as the ringleader that is using expendable partners like Russia and Iran to hamstring the west. I think China is also paying very close attention to how the west handles Ukraine and Israel before it decides on what it wants to do with Taiwan and the south China sea. Ideally, we would like to be deterring further aggression while also not escalating things to the point that China decides that now is the time to take back some territory.
 
This is just a diplomatic middle finger from Iran in response. Israel has great defenses so I imagine these will get shot down but not great!
 
Totally unconfirmed right now, but Arab press is reporting a massive explosion in Tehran.

[ETA: the photos making the rounds are fake, so grain of salt.]
 
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Dinsy Ejotuz said:
Jimmy Rushton@JimmySecUK
U.S. official speaking to ABC News claims there will be between "400 to 500 drones and missiles" launched as part of Iran's attack against Israel.
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Iran said in August it had built an advanced drone, the Mohajer-10, with an operational range of 1,240 miles, according to the Times of Israel. They are capable of flying for up to 24 hours with loads as large as 660 pounds. Two US officials told CBS Friday that Iran could deploy as many as 100 drones.
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The scary part is if any Israeli civilians are killed. If that happens it will be difficult for Israel not to respond with some kind of strike in Iran.

Sometimes full scale war begins with this sort of thing. Hopefully this can be contained.
 
Joe Bryant said:
Please keep this to just the news like folks have done with the Ukraine thread. Thanks.
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It’s really too bad because there are two people that have already commented whose opinions I’d really love to read. (IK and Eephus, and I’m sorry to them for singling them out, but that’s just the truth.)

It’s a shame we can’t have nice things. I feel like something is irretrievably lost that way, and we’re worse off as a community for it. It’s on us, too, so this isn’t directed at you, Joe. It just didn’t work.

Prayers and thoughts for peace right now.
 
bcat01 said:
Capella said:
BREAKING: Iran's mission to the United Nations says military action can be 'deemed concluded'


/wipes hands emoji
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I think Israel will decide when it's done.
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Anything is possible but if Israel goes back at them after they clearly sent these with plenty of notice as a simple retaliation and the US helped clean it up than we got bigger problems.
 
Capella said:
bcat01 said:
Capella said:
BREAKING: Iran's mission to the United Nations says military action can be 'deemed concluded'


/wipes hands emoji
Click to expand...
I think Israel will decide when it's done.
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Anything is possible but if Israel goes back at them after they clearly sent these with plenty of notice as a simple retaliation and the US helped clean it up than we got bigger problems.
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Agree - Iran’s response to their embassy being bombed was basically a “hold me back” bro. If Israel goes back again…
 
jamny said:
Israel can't just let this go. There should be some targeted strikes in retaliation.
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Really, you think? I mean Iran either shadowboxed this attack and let Israel escape harm, or they are completely incompetent militarily. I think it would have been better to do nothing than have your attack extinguished like a match.
 
IvanKaramazov said:
jamny said:
Israel can't just let this go. There should be some targeted strikes in retaliation.
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I'm strongly pro-Israel, and I think they should just let this go. They hit an Iranian consulate intentionally -- that's fine under the circumstances, but you have to expect a response, and Iran gave you a very weak one. Just focus on clearing out Rafah.
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I never thought I would say this, as I am certainly not pro-Iran, but I’m feeling like Iran actually showed restraint here. They needed to show strength in response to the consulate attack, but did it in a way in which they knew would be easily overcome. This was not a surprise attack. The US and Israeli governments knew about the attack well in advance and had time to prepare. Pawn takes bishop, bishop takes rook, but thankfully no checkmate and the game continues.
 
IvanKaramazov said:
You know who really ended up on the wrong side of history? All those guys who thought they were being so clever when they made fun of missile defense systems as "Star Wars" fantasy. Never bet against engineering.
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The issue is that this defense cost Israel about 1B US for one night's action. We spend a ton to knock down drones that the Houthis are throwing at ships, as well. We/they need low cost drones to hunt low cost drones.

Continued prayers for all the hostages.
 
Looks like a whole lot of political theater. Israel continuing the charade would be really stupid, but it can't be ruled out. I was a big proponent of Israel for years. This latest series of events with Gaza lands me more centrist now. I am no longer "with them, no matter what". Clearly, they need guardrails.
 
Sand said:
IvanKaramazov said:
You know who really ended up on the wrong side of history? All those guys who thought they were being so clever when they made fun of missile defense systems as "Star Wars" fantasy. Never bet against engineering.
Click to expand...
The issue is that this defense cost Israel about 1B US for one night's action. We spend a ton to knock down drones that the Houthis are throwing at ships, as well. We/they need low cost drones to hunt low cost drones.

Continued prayers for all the hostages.
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Oh, I definitely get that. But the world is a much more peaceful place than it would be without Iron Dome, for example. Imagine if last night's attack had actually succeeded. (I understand the endogeneity issue - perhaps Iran wouldn't have attacked if they thought their attack might do real damage.)

Edit: In particular, I am extremely interested in learning more about how well US ABM defenses worked last night. And I imagine the US is very interested in making sure that that information is kept quiet, which is fine.
 
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Sparky Polastri said:
Looks like a whole lot of political theater. Israel continuing the charade would be really stupid, but it can't be ruled out. I was a big proponent of Israel for years. This latest series of events with Gaza lands me more centrist now. I am no longer "with them, no matter what". Clearly, they need guardrails.
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Israel and Iran are both big-boy countries, and they have a long history that didn't just start last night. Iran has been attacking Israel for decades - they just use proxies like Hezbollah, but everybody knows its them. At the same time, Iranian nuclear scientists have tragically fallen victim to random street crime and catastrophic explosive engine failure at rates much higher than you would expect by chance, and I'll bet Israel might know something about that. No need to pretend like these guys don't know what they're doing.
 
IvanKaramazov said:
You know who really ended up on the wrong side of history? All those guys who thought they were being so clever when they made fun of missile defense systems as "Star Wars" fantasy. Never bet against engineering.
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Makes one wonder how the U.S. missile defense system would compare, especially against hypersonic missiles. I just read that our interceptor missiles are launched from California and Alaska, and we have a heck of a lot more land to try to protect than Israel.
 
IvanKaramazov said:
Edit: In particular, I am extremely interested in learning more about how well US ABM defenses worked last night. And I imagine the US is very interested in making sure that that information is kept quiet, which is fine.
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Always fun to go down the rabbit hole of trying to find information/videos of these things. You can find some older videos of C-RAM systems in Afghanistan, would love to see what we have out there on the bleeding edge.
 
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