Is Bijon Robinson still worth a first round pick with rumors of Tylor alligeier getting a solid share of work ? (1 Viewer)

[Chaka]

Nothing burger. 150-170 opportunities is a "big role".

Sure was a something burger last year.

Allgeier is a weapon. They’d be silly to mothball him.

And as we all know, not all opportunities are created equal. What % of those opportunities are receptions? How many result in TDs?

It’s harder to predict results than opportunities, is all I’m saying. It creates some amount of ambiguity.

To me being a top 7 pick is about avoiding ambiguity. But to each their own, of course.

Tell it to the people deciding between Najee Harris & Jaylen Warren.

This is about Bijan who is objectively better than Najee, Warren & Allgeier and doesn't have Arthur Smith coaching him anymore.

Allgeier is a fine player and should get touches but, IMO, he isn't Michael Turner waiting in the wings to pop off a 1,600 yard season.

He's a thumper who is great to spell a lead back every third/fourth drive. But, again IMO, he's not pushing for a 50% timeshare under this new coaching staff.

Again, in context of taking a player between 4-7, I prefer Chase, JJ, ARSB, AJB

I feel the drop-off to the next tier of WR is steeper than the drop from Bijan to Henry, Etienne, KWIII, R. White, Stevenson, Kamara, Pacheco

Personal preference of course, but my comments have all been framed in that context.

If you believe Bijan is going to produce on par with that WR group, and you feel confident that your WRs will be just as good by taking a RB top 5-6-7, then by all means, you should take Bijan.

Are we discussing Bijan and Allgeier or your draft board.

Vastly different conversations.

Vis-a-vis top 7 picks Allgeier shouldn't be any more consideration than Braelon Allen.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Are we discussing Bijan and Allgeier or your draft board.

Vastly different conversations.

Vis-a-vis top 7 picks Allgeier shouldn't be any more consideration than Braelon Allen.

I’ve been discussing the topic at hand: taking Bijan as a 1st round pick. It’s right there in the topic title.

Has nothing to do with my draft board, and everything to do with ADP. If you are taking Bijan in the 1st round, you’re spending a top 7 pick on him. And likely top 5 based on the last 3 real drafts I’ve done (2x best ball, 1 redraft - he went 1.05 in all 3).

In that light, who I’d rather take, and where the positional drop-offs are in the later rounds seems highly relevant to the question at hand.

Allgeier is also relevant, and I would argue moreso than Allen. We haven’t heard the Jets talking about heavy usage from Allen, have we?

They’re all just data points my friend. We collect them and evaluate based on what we know, and occasionally we speculate on what we don’t know. It’s why everyone has different rankings and preferences. There are no right or wrong answers here - only personal preferences developed from the greater context.

So should we spend a 1st round pick on Bijan? If that means passing up ARSB, Chase, JJ, or Lamb (who went 1.06, after BIjan in tonight’s 17 team BB draft) I’m taking the WR.

But that’s my answer. If you have a different answer based on the same inputs, that’s ok too. It’s fun to discuss & get a feel for how everyone sees this situation.

Again, I may be completely wrong and missing out on the next LT2-level season. Absolutely on the spectrum of potential outcomes.

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

I think Hall, Bijan and Gibbs are being preferentially rated near their ceilings relative to the top backs. I don't want to invest in a top back based on their upside. I want safety.

 

[pinkstapler]

I think Hall, Bijan and Gibbs are being preferentially rated near their ceilings relative to the top backs. I don't want to invest in a top back based on their upside. I want safety.

This was my issue with just about all this years "top backs". Other than CMC and Achane, there really wasn't a back who, when taking their cost into consideration, was very appealing to me. Obviously this was also influenced by starting backs like Walker, Connor, Harris, and Brian Robinson all going at great values and projected to carry the majority of the workload and going several rounds later. Shout out JJZach and his ambiguous backfield back strategy which has been working out well for me the past couple years too. Not to say I think James Connor will finish ahead of Breece Hall or Bijan, but when I take take him in the 6th round and score maybe 2-3 pts less a week that those first round guys; I've found I've more than made up that differential by locking in multiple top WRs, and a top 5 TE with those picks instead.

 

[Jacob's Ladder]

I think Hall, Bijan and Gibbs are being preferentially rated near their ceilings relative to the top backs. I don't want to invest in a top back based on their upside. I want safety.

So what do you do with your first and maybe even second round picks? Just punt and trade down? Because I got news to you, you're paying a premium for every guy drafted that high. You need them to perform close to their ceiling for the pick not to hurt. So I guess my question to you is, where's the value up there? Where's the safety? Because all of them are drafted near their ceiling and all of them have significant risk in getting there.

 

[dmac37]

Respected Falcon beat writer D. Orlando Ledbetter was on SiriusXM a few days ago and stated Bijan will not be sharing the load. If I remember correctly, I think he said something like 25 touches will be something like 20 for Bijan and 5 for Alligeier.

 

[ericttspikes]

Dunno man. From a pure talent standpoint, he has some of the best tape I've seen since probably AP.

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That run vs GB at #4 is one of the most incredible things I've seen a RB do in many years. Different level.

Will Tyler Allgeier and his 3.7 ypc, keep Bijan on the bench enough to hurt his chances of being a top 3 back? I guess after seeing that happen last year I suppose it's a non-zero chance but I'm personally not buying it.

It simply cannot be overstated how crazy Arthur Smith used his players last year. I think there was a game that Jonnu Smith had more carries inside the 5 than Bijan did in the previous 9 games. Allgeier had 5x as many carries inside the 10 at one point. All that nuttiness got him fired. If Zac follows last year's blueprint fans will ride him out on a rail next. In my mind, there is just no way a competent offensive coordinator like Zac Robinson, watches a generational talent like Bijan run on tape and in practice and says "we need more Tyler Allgeier". From a business standpoint, how many season ticket holders are paying to see Tyler Allgeier get carries with Bijan on the bench? None.

Bijan tracked Christian McCaffrey's rookie production last year and I expect a similar year 2 jump. TD scoring is somewhat arbitrary, but the Falcons have by far the easiest schedule in the NFL which should lead to positive game scripts for running the ball.

I've taken Bijan #1 overall in several drafts, but I have a high risk tolerance and tend to take players on where I see them going vs. past performance.

CMC on paper is the "safest" pick, and have several teams with him, but he's a 28 year old RB coming off a huge workload season. He's been a player with injury issues in the past, coming off his second healthy year in a row after hitting double digit TDs in for only the second time in his career.

9ers are great, and CMC is a great player, but I don't think anybody at RB is a slam dunk to do it 2 years in a row. From a statistical perspective, that is really, really rare. Only 6 players since 1970 have ever done it. King Henry being the last. I personally would rather face plant betting on a young, generational talent ascending than a RB nearing the age cliff doing it again. I'm ok dying on that hill.

 

[Chaka]

Yeah, people are overthinking this one