cantstop1999
Footballguy
I’ve heard multiple reports of this on different expert podcast, so I’m wondering if anyone knows anything else now?
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Is Bijon Robinson still worth a first round pick with rumors of Tylor alligeier getting a solid share of work ? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter cantstop1999
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Pietaster2
Footballguy
Arthur Smith can’t hurt us anymore. Bijan will be fine as a first round pick.
Long Ball Larry
Footballguy
He was rb12 last year in his rookie season with sub-optimal usage. Hard to imagine anything being worse this year and a few of the guys ahead of him last year won’t be ahead this year. Trust the talent even if the situation doesn’t end up being perfect and he’s not rb1. Godspeed, friend.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
cantstop1999
Footballguy
That’s from last year, but have heard some experts talk about this, siriusxm, talking about coaches using Taylor a lot in certain situations, that’s scary to me, but I definitely love Bijon. Do you know the old saying you won’t win with your first pic but you could lose.- YouTube
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Deamon
Footballguy
Exactly... but Bijan's floor is very high and solid. Don't think you're going to lose your league by taking Bijan r1, he seems pretty damn safe to finish as an RB1 (he did last year and now has a way better offense and I doubt his share decreases this year)That’s from last year, but have heard some experts talk about this, siriusxm, talking about coaches using Taylor a lot in certain situations, that’s scary to me, but I definitely love Bijon. Do you know the old saying you won’t win with your first pic but you could lose.- YouTube
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cantstop1999
Footballguy
Offensive coordinator Zac Robinson said Tuesday that Allgeier "certainly is going to have a big role" again, Josh Kendall of The Athletic reports.
It's not what Bijan Robinson drafters want to hear, following a rookie season in which the 2023 eighth overall pick got only 28 more carries (214 to 186) than his backfield mate. Allgeier wasn't as efficient as he had been during his own rookie season the year prior, dropping from 4.9 yards per carry in 2022 to 3.7 YPC in 2023, but it sounds like the new coaching staff in Atlanta nonetheless views him as a big part of their plan on offense. While the workload figures to shift more in Robinson's favor this year, it might not be quite to the extent people are hoping for when they use a first-round fantasy pick on the 22-year-old.
Thoughts on this?
It's not what Bijan Robinson drafters want to hear, following a rookie season in which the 2023 eighth overall pick got only 28 more carries (214 to 186) than his backfield mate. Allgeier wasn't as efficient as he had been during his own rookie season the year prior, dropping from 4.9 yards per carry in 2022 to 3.7 YPC in 2023, but it sounds like the new coaching staff in Atlanta nonetheless views him as a big part of their plan on offense. While the workload figures to shift more in Robinson's favor this year, it might not be quite to the extent people are hoping for when they use a first-round fantasy pick on the 22-year-old.
Thoughts on this?
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
He was not an RB1 last season but I know we have different definitions.Exactly... but Bijan's floor is very high and solid. Don't think you're going to lose your league by taking Bijan r1, he seems pretty damn safe to finish as an RB1 (he did last year and now has a way better offense and I doubt his share decreases this year)That’s from last year, but have heard some experts talk about this, siriusxm, talking about coaches using Taylor a lot in certain situations, that’s scary to me, but I definitely love Bijon. Do you know the old saying you won’t win with your first pic but you could lose.- YouTube
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Just because a player ends up RB12 doesn't make them an RB1
There are not 12 RB1s in MoPs definition so again we are not going to see eye to eye on this
BS from the coach to keep the back up engaged. Bijan will be exceptional this year.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Mike McCarthy called Trey Lance a "Master" of the offense last Dec/Jan but low and behold he tosses 5 interceptions in a preseason game the other night
Coaches say a lot of things
Bijan was pulled back last year right before kickoff or Sunday Morning and when asked about it he acted clueless as if he had no idea why they did that.
And the Atlanta Falcons cannot be relied on to do the right thing, they handle their business oddly these days.
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Deamon
Footballguy
WutHe was not an RB1 last season but I know we have different definitions.Exactly... but Bijan's floor is very high and solid. Don't think you're going to lose your league by taking Bijan r1, he seems pretty damn safe to finish as an RB1 (he did last year and now has a way better offense and I doubt his share decreases this year)That’s from last year, but have heard some experts talk about this, siriusxm, talking about coaches using Taylor a lot in certain situations, that’s scary to me, but I definitely love Bijon. Do you know the old saying you won’t win with your first pic but you could lose.- YouTube
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Just because a player ends up RB12 doesn't make them an RB1
There are not 12 RB1s in MoPs definition so again we are not going to see eye to eye on this
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
You heard meWutHe was not an RB1 last season but I know we have different definitions.Exactly... but Bijan's floor is very high and solid. Don't think you're going to lose your league by taking Bijan r1, he seems pretty damn safe to finish as an RB1 (he did last year and now has a way better offense and I doubt his share decreases this year)That’s from last year, but have heard some experts talk about this, siriusxm, talking about coaches using Taylor a lot in certain situations, that’s scary to me, but I definitely love Bijon. Do you know the old saying you won’t win with your first pic but you could lose.- YouTube
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Just because a player ends up RB12 doesn't make them an RB1
There are not 12 RB1s in MoPs definition so again we are not going to see eye to eye on this
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I’ll be “that guy”, I guess.
I’m off Bijan at ADP. Traded my 1 dynasty share for Ja’Marr Chase, and haven’t drafted him in redraft in my 3 leagues. Still could on Saturday in my home league, but probably won’t.
Never say never, but I like some of the more proven commodities at his ADP.
I know it’s awesome to get a player in their breakout season, but there’s a lot of ambiguity with the Falcons right now. New QB, new coaching staff, defense looks improved but it’s kinda all TBD.
I’m not saying they won’t hit their ceiling. But I haven’t seen it yet, and Bijan’s price feels like we’re paying for that ceiling.
Just a lot of factors that can impact his production for my taste as a top ~7 pick, and too many proven guys I like there.
Again - certainly possible he crushes that ADP - not saying he can’t. And if he does I’ll happily pay up the top ~3 pick it’ll take to get him next year.
But that’s next year.
I’m off Bijan at ADP. Traded my 1 dynasty share for Ja’Marr Chase, and haven’t drafted him in redraft in my 3 leagues. Still could on Saturday in my home league, but probably won’t.
Never say never, but I like some of the more proven commodities at his ADP.
I know it’s awesome to get a player in their breakout season, but there’s a lot of ambiguity with the Falcons right now. New QB, new coaching staff, defense looks improved but it’s kinda all TBD.
I’m not saying they won’t hit their ceiling. But I haven’t seen it yet, and Bijan’s price feels like we’re paying for that ceiling.
Just a lot of factors that can impact his production for my taste as a top ~7 pick, and too many proven guys I like there.
Again - certainly possible he crushes that ADP - not saying he can’t. And if he does I’ll happily pay up the top ~3 pick it’ll take to get him next year.
But that’s next year.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I was enraged.
Cost me a win by 5 points. And missed the playoffs by 1 win in that league.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
And I like his talent, you were very much out in front on the Bijan bandwagon last year, I had him in a few leagues as well.
His ADP is outrageous
cantstop1999
Footballguy
I agree, I’m leaning Hall now but somewhat a little disappointed, really wanted Bijon, but I just don’t trust Atlanta
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Why Hall? That might be worse than Bijan?
What's your top 5?
I have Barkley after CMC, I have Gibbs in my top 5, why limit yourself to the ADP rankings? What spot are you picking?
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Yep - generational talent. You can’t help but get giddy watching his college film. Dude is a beast.
But Allgeier is also a very talent back, and he’s not going away.
I’ve seen not one, but a steady drumbeat of “we’re gonna ride Allgeier a lot” type quotes from their coaches. Ain’t no way it’s all just motivational coachspeak. Lot of smoke, likely some fire.
If he has say, 10% more production than last year he’s probably worth where he’s being picked. But I love me some of the WR there, and feel like the drop-off from an ARSB, AJB, JJ to the 2nd or 3rd round WR is probably greater than the drop-off from Bijan to KWIII, Stevenson, Kamara, etc, and I can get them in the 3rd/4th rounds.
For me it’s more about WR vs RB. I still think Bijan is a special talent, I just think my build will be better taking a WR in a 12-team redraft.
Deamon
Footballguy
But that's the exact definition of an RB1.You heard meWutHe was not an RB1 last season but I know we have different definitions.Exactly... but Bijan's floor is very high and solid. Don't think you're going to lose your league by taking Bijan r1, he seems pretty damn safe to finish as an RB1 (he did last year and now has a way better offense and I doubt his share decreases this year)That’s from last year, but have heard some experts talk about this, siriusxm, talking about coaches using Taylor a lot in certain situations, that’s scary to me, but I definitely love Bijon. Do you know the old saying you won’t win with your first pic but you could lose.- YouTube
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Just because a player ends up RB12 doesn't make them an RB1
There are not 12 RB1s in MoPs definition so again we are not going to see eye to eye on this
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I’m in on Hall. Other than playing on a cursed team, he’s shown me he can carry a roster. Certainly won me a ship last year with bubble gum & duct tape at QB.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Oh thank god, I thought it was just me - so everyone sees the YouTube descriptions in German?!I don’t listen to German analysts.- YouTube
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What is up with that?!
zamboni
Footballguy
Don’t know - it’s been a thing for a few weeks now.Oh thank god, I thought it was just me - so everyone sees the YouTube descriptions in German?!I don’t listen to German analysts.- YouTube
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What is up with that?!
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I think this is about where I am as well. Slightly different order, but it still puts Bijan closer to the 2-3-4 round backs than the 1st rounders.
And tiered it looks more like
CMC
Barkley
Hall
Gibbs
Taylor
Bijan
Henry (I have my concerns)
ETN
Pacheco
Kamara
KWIII
But that’s just, like, my opinion, maaaan.
So you have Gibbs in your top 5 (who shares with Montgomery), but you're worried about Bijan because of Alligeier??
Chaka
Footballguy
Nothing burger. 150-170 opportunities is a "big role".
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I’ve seen Gibbs put up top 5 numbers with Monty. Gibbs has game-breaking ability. Bijan is a spectacular RB, but to this point I’ve not seen him be elite. I feel like he needs more of a feature back role with a full compliment of touches while Gibbs can do the same on fewer.
Is it possible that Bijan takes a leap? Absolutely. Do I want to pay an early 1st round price to find out?
Not over some of the other early 1st round options, no. If he falls to the back of the 1st and I’m picking there, I’ll probably take him. Top half I’m likely going WR.
Personal presence, risk aversion, etc,
Just not as confident in him or ATL at the moment. And I could be tragically wrong, just to reiterate. I often am.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Sure was a something burger last year.
Allgeier is a weapon. They’d be silly to mothball him.
And as we all know, not all opportunities are created equal. What % of those opportunities are receptions? How many result in TDs?
It’s harder to predict results than opportunities, is all I’m saying. It creates some amount of ambiguity.
To me being a top 7 pick is about avoiding ambiguity. But to each their own, of course.
Long Ball Larry
Footballguy
Experts! Oh my godThat’s from last year, but have heard some experts talk about this, siriusxm, talking about coaches using Taylor a lot in certain situations, that’s scary to me, but I definitely love Bijon. Do you know the old saying you won’t win with your first pic but you could lose.- YouTube
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Long Ball Larry
Footballguy
What pick do you have?
Long Ball Larry
Footballguy
More like hot take guy, amirite?
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I have my moments.
And I do love me some Bijan. Put him in SF & he’s 1.01 on my board.
I’m just kinda waffling on him right now.
And honestly it’s more about the position, as I said. I like the RB I can get later more than the WR I can get later.
Long Ball Larry
Footballguy
Don’t know - it’s been a thing for a few weeks now.Oh thank god, I thought it was just me - so everyone sees the YouTube descriptions in German?!I don’t listen to German analysts.- YouTube
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What is up with that?!
Erhalte Boeringer und Bijan!!I don’t listen to German analysts.- YouTube
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Long Ball Larry
Footballguy
I have literally zero exposure To bijan right now, so idgaf. If I grab him in another draft, I will fight you to the death
jabarony
Footballguy
When I download the footballguys podcasts, I've recently been getting German insertion adds as well. I thought it was because of my Oktoberfest beer purchases being tracked. I guess it's something else.Oh thank god, I thought it was just me - so everyone sees the YouTube descriptions in German?!I don’t listen to German analysts.- YouTube
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What is up with that?!
fair point. he poached an awful lot of Bijans carries last year, but with a year of experience I'm pretty sure Bijans role will grow while Algeiers will shrink. its just a matter of how much and how quickly will it happen.
Id say its fair to tack some yardage onto last years totals but I wouldnt be saying hes a full on Bell cow. but last years totals were not all that bad. especially when you consider the limited volume he had. an extra 200-250 yards and an extra TD or two put him right up there with the big boys. the dynamic doesnt need to change a whole lot for him to have a very good year.
VikingFrog
Footballguy
I thought it was just me, as YouTube video d But maybe it’s a football guys thing.- YouTube
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Chaka
Footballguy
Tell it to the people deciding between Najee Harris & Jaylen Warren.
This is about Bijan who is objectively better than Najee, Warren & Allgeier and doesn't have Arthur Smith coaching him anymore.
Allgeier is a fine player and should get touches but, IMO, he isn't Michael Turner waiting in the wings to pop off a 1,600 yard season.
He's a thumper who is great to spell a lead back every third/fourth drive. But, again IMO, he's not pushing for a 50% timeshare under this new coaching staff.
Pip's Invitation
Footballguy
I had 1.6 in my money redraft (12-team PPR). Bijan was still there and Amon-Ra was gone. I took Jefferson. I would have taken Amon-Ra if he was there.
Part of it was because I think Jefferson is QB-proof and a top-3 talent.
Part of it was because I liked the second round RBs better than the second round WRs and wanted to go WR-RB. (I got Kyren.)
Part of it was that Bijan is assumed to be a Peterson-level talent, and his ADP sort of reflects that, but we haven't actually seen it yet. I know what Jefferson is.
BIRDGANG52
Footballguy
Yeah, kind of surprised people are acting like this. Allegier had a role last year and the year before.
I thought we all universally understood he would continue to get 150-200 touches. He's a great RB.
The season starts in 10 days and we're just now acknowledging that Bijan is in a RBBC? As for my take, Bijan is the consensus dynasty RB1 for a reason. Once he officially breaks out, he's going to continue to eat into Allegier's touches. Kind of like when Adrian Peterson phased out Chester Taylor.
He's too talented to worry about not getting enough carries.
Chaka
Footballguy
Well, to be fair I think Breece is in the conversation here.
If they're both on the table when you're on the clock I could see flip-flopping multiple times.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I would too.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Again, in context of taking a player between 4-7, I prefer Chase, JJ, ARSB, AJB
I feel the drop-off to the next tier of WR is steeper than the drop from Bijan to Henry, Etienne, KWIII, R. White, Stevenson, Kamara, Pacheco
Personal preference of course, but my comments have all been framed in that context.
If you believe Bijan is going to produce on par with that WR group, and you feel confident that your WRs will be just as good by taking a RB top 5-6-7, then by all means, you should take Bijan.
Also of note, we’ve seen Hall perform as a bell cow with an elite workload with absolute garbage at QB. He feels safer, IF I’m taking a RB top 7, and as mentioned, I prefer the 1st round WRs there.
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Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I’m not completely convinced by what we’ve seen so far, and I have no idea what to expect from the 2024 Cousins-led Falcons.
Bit of a black box at the moment. Could work out great. There are other possible outcomes. I’ve been excited about good players in new landscapes and been burned before.
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