Is Cam Newton the 1.01 pick in dynasty startups? (1 Viewer)

[EBF]

Cam Newton is in the midst of what will almost surely be the best rookie FF season by any NFL QB in league history.

There are a lot of things to like about him.

- He's a physical freak of nature. Tall. Fast. Strong. Rocket arm.

- He was a college superstar and the #1 overall draft pick.

- He's already a good passer. His 2011 completion percentage and yards per attempt average put him in a group with names like Roethlisberger, Romo, and Ryan.

- He's the best rushing QB in the league. Only two players (LeSean McCoy and Adrian Peterson) have more rushing TDs this season.

- He's already an impact player at a position where true FF difference-makers are rare.

- He plays a position with much better longevity potential than RB and WR. QBs often play well into their mid 30s and beyond.

- He plays a position where players often improve with experience. In other words, he still has upside.

Unless you think his numbers are a fluke and/or he's going to regress soon, there's no way you can't be bullish about his future. He appears to be the QB version of what Randy Moss was to the WR position: an instant star with once-per-decade abilities.

The question is...who would you rather have in a dynasty league?

There are a lot of great players in the NFL, but relatively few who possess unparalleled skills compared to the field. I suspect that some would rather have LeSean McCoy, Ray Rice, and Adrian Peterson, but I don't think I'd move Cam for any of those names. The only two players who seem to offer the same combination of instant dominance and long-term value potential are Aaron Rodgers and Calvin Johnson. Given that Rodgers is having a career year, is a finished product, is older than Newton, and does not have the potential to score as many points with his feet, I think you can make a credible case that Cam is the better dynasty play (not saying I would trade Rodgers for him, but I'd consider it).

What do you think? Is Cam Newton the most valuable player in dynasty leagues? Who would you rather have in a standard PPR format?

 

[biggamer3]

Rodgers/thread

 

[jon_mx]

Rodgers has many huge years left. Can't imagine another QB taken before him.

 

[fruity pebbles]

in a ppr calvin is my easy #1

 

[thriftyrocker]

We did this thread at least twice already.

 

[Dez]

No chance

 

[thriftyrocker]

His 2011 completion percentage ... put him in a group with names like Roethlisberger, Romo, and Ryan.

This is pretty wrong. Much closer to Rex Grossman and Jason Campbell. Don't know any leagues that use this stat anyway.

 

[EBF]

His 2011 completion percentage ... put him in a group with names like Roethlisberger, Romo, and Ryan.

This is pretty wrong. Much closer to Rex Grossman and Jason Campbell. Don't know any leagues that use this stat anyway.

Like yards per attempt, completion percentage is a decent indicator of QB performance. Good NFL QBs tend to become good FF QBs. Given that passing ability will be an important determinant of Cam's long-term prospects, I don't see any reason to disregard stats pertaining to it just because we "don't know any leagues that use this stat." As for the comparisons I made...

Completion Percentage

Tony Romo - 64.5

Ben Roethlisberger - 63.6

Philip Rivers - 61.1

Cam Newton - 61.0

Yards Per Attempt

Ben Roethlisberger - 8.0

Tony Romo - 8.0

Cam Newton - 7.9

Philip Rivers - 7.7

Pure passing ability was supposed to be one of the big question marks surrounding Cam when he entered the league, but he's already outperforming guys like Stafford, Flacco, Ryan, and Freeman in some key categories. Pretty amazing, really.

 

[thriftyrocker]

Like yards per attempt, completion percentage is a decent indicator of QB performance. Good NFL QBs tend to become good FF QBs. Given that passing ability will be an important determinant of Cam's long-term prospects, I don't see any reason to disregard stats pertaining to it just because we "don't know any leagues that use this stat."

As for the comparisons I made...

Completion Percentage

Tony Romo - 64.5

Ben Roethlisberger - 63.6

Philip Rivers - 61.1

Cam Newton - 61.0

Rex Grossman - 60.7Jason Campbell - 60.6

Cam's is not high. It is adequate.

Rivers' career mark is 63.3%. He is having a bad year and using that number without context also makes your argument weaker.

 

[EBF]

Like yards per attempt, completion percentage is a decent indicator of QB performance. Good NFL QBs tend to become good FF QBs. Given that passing ability will be an important determinant of Cam's long-term prospects, I don't see any reason to disregard stats pertaining to it just because we "don't know any leagues that use this stat."

As for the comparisons I made...

Completion Percentage

Tony Romo - 64.5

Ben Roethlisberger - 63.6

Philip Rivers - 61.1

Cam Newton - 61.0

Rex Grossman - 60.7Jason Campbell - 60.6

Their yards per attempt averages are well below Cam's. Even if you want to argue that Cam is a mediocre passer who will never get better, that doesn't appear to be an obstacle to FF stardom because he's putting up staggering FF numbers right now even with his current level of passing skills.

When you consider that he's only a rookie at a position where rookies typically struggle and that he may still have room for improvement, you start to see why he might be worthy of the 1.01 pick.

If he's already doing this, how good might he be 2-3 years from now when he's still in his physical prime and he has the benefit of experience?

 

[eakfootball]

Not 1.1. But top 10, yes.

 

[moderated]

The top 3 dynasty players are Rodgers, Calvin, and newton. I can see arguments for each of them but that's the clear top 3.

I remember after week 1 you made a post about newton and many on the board thought it was ridiculous at first, I have a feeling this may start the same but end up with many agreeing.

 

[bonesman]

Like yards per attempt, completion percentage is a decent indicator of QB performance. Good NFL QBs tend to become good FF QBs. Given that passing ability will be an important determinant of Cam's long-term prospects, I don't see any reason to disregard stats pertaining to it just because we "don't know any leagues that use this stat."

As for the comparisons I made...

Completion Percentage

Tony Romo - 64.5

Ben Roethlisberger - 63.6

Philip Rivers - 61.1

Cam Newton - 61.0

Rex Grossman - 60.7Jason Campbell - 60.6

Cam's is not high. It is adequate.

Rivers' career mark is 63.3%. He is having a bad year and using that number without context also makes your argument weaker.

Adequate when compared to established veterans. I would say that's more than adequate for a rookie who was supposed to struggle as a passer. I wait to see what records he takes as a first year passer.

 

[Banemorth]

The top 3 dynasty players are Rodgers, Calvin, and newton. I can see arguments for each of them but that's the clear top 3.I remember after week 1 you made a post about newton and many on the board thought it was ridiculous at first, I have a feeling this may start the same but end up with many agreeing.

Your list is invalid as you did not include Shady McCoy.

 

[BassNBrew]

I don't know EBF. I'd like to see some more before jumping him over Rodgers. Last year at this time people were talking about how Vick was the clear cut 1.1 in re-draft leagues.

I'd probably go CJ as the QB position appears to be getting deeper. I think your argument about Cam's great rookie year is somewhat lessen by the success of Ponder and Dalton. Next year you have Luck, Barkley, and Griffin 3 entering into the mix.

 

[Wadsworth]

I am a big supporter of Cam in keeper/dynasty formats but there is no way I take him over Rodgers at this point. Rodgers is playing at a very high level and already has several of his targets signed for years to come. Close, but no.

 

[Shutout]

Biggest potential difference maker at their position, given age: Calvin Johnson.

In a startup, I can pass on Cam and Rodgers and sniff out the next Matt Stafford. But I am less likely to be able to pass on a calvin type and then come back several rounds later and find the guy that consistently produces like him.

 

[Concept Coop]

Biggest potential difference maker at their position, given age: Calvin Johnson.

If he kicked field goals, maybe.I am not saying Newton is more valuable than Megatron now. In most formats, it is close, but there is a case for Calvin.But Newton is a QB that offers the potential to lead the league in rushing TDs. If we are talking about the biggest POTENTIAL difference maker, given age, that person is EASILY Cam.

 

[Concept Coop]

Cam Newton is in the midst of what will almost surely be the best rookie FF season by any NFL QB in league history. There are a lot of things to like about him.- He's a physical freak of nature. Tall. Fast. Strong. Rocket arm. - He was a college superstar and the #1 overall draft pick.- He's already a good passer. His 2011 completion percentage and yards per attempt average put him in a group with names like Roethlisberger, Romo, and Ryan.- He's the best rushing QB in the league. Only two players (LeSean McCoy and Adrian Peterson) have more rushing TDs this season. - He's already an impact player at a position where true FF difference-makers are rare. - He plays a position with much better longevity potential than RB and WR. QBs often play well into their mid 30s and beyond.- He plays a position where players often improve with experience. In other words, he still has upside. Unless you think his numbers are a fluke and/or he's going to regress soon, there's no way you can't be bullish about his future. He appears to be the QB version of what Randy Moss was to the WR position: an instant star with once-per-decade abilities. The question is...who would you rather have in a dynasty league? There are a lot of great players in the NFL, but relatively few who possess unparalleled skills compared to the field. I suspect that some would rather have LeSean McCoy, Ray Rice, and Adrian Peterson, but I don't think I'd move Cam for any of those names. The only two players who seem to offer the same combination of instant dominance and long-term value potential are Aaron Rodgers and Calvin Johnson. Given that Rodgers is having a career year, is a finished product, is older than Newton, and does not have the potential to score as many points with his feet, I think you can make a credible case that Cam is the better dynasty play (not saying I would trade Rodgers for him, but I'd consider it).What do you think? Is Cam Newton the most valuable player in dynasty leagues? Who would you rather have in a standard PPR format?

I like this thread.In a 4 pt passing, no-ppr league, Newton is the clear #1, in my opinion.In more standard, PPR leagues, I would go: ShadyFosterWith Calvin, Newton, and Rodgers very close together. Followed closely by the likes of McFadden and Adrian Peterson.The potential is unreal. He is on pace to outscore anything Aaron Rodgers has done - aside from this year...and he has thrown for 12 passing TDs. He is a rookie, with one above average receiving threat, no camp, one year of major college football (starting)...If everyone currently in the NFL reached their potential, or if we ranked players based on potential alone, Cam could be the best fantasy football player in my time watching the sport. Imagine his current numbers with a solid 20/8 TD/int ratio, which is reasonable down the road. My god. If he ever hits 30 passing TDs in one season (Matt Cassel threw for 27 last year)...

 

[Coeur de Lion]

At QB I'd take Rodgers, easily; I know with 100% certainty that barring catastrophic injury, he will be one of the best players in both FF and the NFL for a long time. And for all the talk of Cam's huge upside, uhh... Rodgers is lapping the field right now. He obviously has 50 passing / handful rushing upside which is no different than 30 passing / 12 rushing in most systems. Most HOF level QBs play well into their mid-30s, so for me the age difference is pretty negligible. Also, we've seen this (Cam type potential) before, or at least close to it - Steve Young, McNair, Vick, Culpepper. Obviously fantastic fantasy QBs, but good enough to take a 50% Steve Young (which sets the bar really effing high) over a 100% young prime Manning? Not for me.

Depending on scoring system (start 1 QB/3 WR, PPR, 6 pts TD pass is a common format) I take Calvin at 1.01 alot of times also.

 

[ivnabru]

Cam Newton is in the midst of what will almost surely be the best rookie FF season by any NFL QB in league history.

There are a lot of things to like about him.

- He's a physical freak of nature. Tall. Fast. Strong. Rocket arm.

- He was a college superstar and the #1 overall draft pick.

- He's already a good passer. His 2011 completion percentage and yards per attempt average put him in a group with names like Roethlisberger, Romo, and Ryan.

- He's the best rushing QB in the league. Only two players (LeSean McCoy and Adrian Peterson) have more rushing TDs this season.

- He's already an impact player at a position where true FF difference-makers are rare.

- He plays a position with much better longevity potential than RB and WR. QBs often play well into their mid 30s and beyond.

- He plays a position where players often improve with experience. In other words, he still has upside.

Unless you think his numbers are a fluke and/or he's going to regress soon, there's no way you can't be bullish about his future. He appears to be the QB version of what Randy Moss was to the WR position: an instant star with once-per-decade abilities.

The question is...who would you rather have in a dynasty league?

There are a lot of great players in the NFL, but relatively few who possess unparalleled skills compared to the field. I suspect that some would rather have LeSean McCoy, Ray Rice, and Adrian Peterson, but I don't think I'd move Cam for any of those names. The only two players who seem to offer the same combination of instant dominance and long-term value potential are Aaron Rodgers and Calvin Johnson. Given that Rodgers is having a career year, is a finished product, is older than Newton, and does not have the potential to score as many points with his feet, I think you can make a credible case that Cam is the better dynasty play (not saying I would trade Rodgers for him, but I'd consider it).

What do you think? Is Cam Newton the most valuable player in dynasty leagues? Who would you rather have in a standard PPR format?

Vick is still a much better rusher and it's not even close.If you mean from a fantasy perspective then Vick/Tebow/Cam are all close. Vick/Tebow will put up more yards per game started of course but Cam probably will have more TDs. Not definitely since Tebow is a pretty good redzone rusher.

 

[Sweet Love]

Personally, I would go Rodgers, Calvin, Rice and McCoy above him. One, I'd expect teams begin to adjust (somewhat effectively) to what he does. Two, Carolina is no closer to finding a running mate for Steve Smith than they have been over the past 7 years. Eventually, that will bite them like Manning has in Indy. Finally, I would still go Rodgers over him, as it would not surprise me at all if Rodgers ends up playing beyond Cam in the NFL (not just more years, but in the league beyond Cam's retirement).

I have definitely been wrong about Cam, but he is not going to last 7-8 more years at this pace. Doesn't mean he won't be great during that time, or that Carolina will won't greatly benefit from him during that time, but there is going to be a year where they have to hold him back from all the running, and even if he makes a nice adjustment to a pass first QB (which I think he is showing us he can), I doubt whether those numbers will equal those of Rodgers, even when he is in his early-mid 30s.

 

[two_dollars]

In dynasty you aren't looking at a 10 year window, you are looking at about a 4 year window. Thus I would take Rodgers. More stable situation with the personel and coaches, and better history of performance. Nothing against Cam, but I don't get fooled by flash.

 

[Sabertooth]

He wouldn't even be the first quarterback selected.

 

[EBF]

I have definitely been wrong about Cam, but he is not going to last 7-8 more years at this pace. Doesn't mean he won't be great during that time, or that Carolina will won't greatly benefit from him during that time, but there is going to be a year where they have to hold him back from all the running,

In most cases I would agree, but Cam is not built like your typical QB. He's huge and very strong. Actually bigger than a lot of the guys who will be trying to tackle him. He has only run the ball about 8 times per game this season. I think it's possible that he could sustain that workload for a long time. Of course his legs will go eventually, but that could be 6-7 years from now, if not more. As for Rodgers, I never said that I clearly had him ranked below Newton, but...he's in the midst of what certainly looks like a career year. Peyton Manning has only thrown for over 33 TDs (Rodgers's current mark) one time. Tom Brady has only done it once. It makes you wonder whether what Rodgers is doing right now is really sustainable. I mean, those are some of the best QBs ever and he's on pace to match their best seasons. If you remember what happened when Brady threw for 50 TDs and when Manning threw for 49 TDs, each player was overrated in the following season because people drafted those QBs expecting them to match a level of production that was not sustainable. Is that happening right now with Rodgers? Hard to say, but it's definitely possible that his numbers will drop back down to the level of a mere mortal in the near future. I mean, right now he's probably playing better than any QB ever. I fully expect him to remain an elite FF option, but I don't now if he'll be able to match his current pace ever again in his career. The same is true for Newton, but I think his rushing ability and his potential upside as a passer means it's less likely that his 2011 campaign represents his absolute peak than it is for Rodgers.

 

[Concept Coop]

Personally, I would go Rodgers, Calvin, Rice and McCoy above him. One, I'd expect teams begin to adjust (somewhat effectively) to what he does. Two, Carolina is no closer to finding a running mate for Steve Smith than they have been over the past 7 years. Eventually, that will bite them like Manning has in Indy. Finally, I would still go Rodgers over him, as it would not surprise me at all if Rodgers ends up playing beyond Cam in the NFL (not just more years, but in the league beyond Cam's retirement).I have definitely been wrong about Cam, but he is not going to last 7-8 more years at this pace. Doesn't mean he won't be great during that time, or that Carolina will won't greatly benefit from him during that time, but there is going to be a year where they have to hold him back from all the running, and even if he makes a nice adjustment to a pass first QB (which I think he is showing us he can), I doubt whether those numbers will equal those of Rodgers, even when he is in his early-mid 30s.

What makes you think Cam can't last more than 7-8 years? He isn't taking big hits at all. His rushing TDs are either sneaks, or he has been walking into the endzone. He is one of the best rushing QBs we have seen, when it comes to being smart about his body - he avoids hits by running out of bounds and by sliding.The one big hit I remember Cam taking was by Brian Orakpo. He was hit in the back, in the pocket, due to his LT. It made me think two things: 1. Cam doesn't take as many of those type of hits as other QBs do. Isn't that a good thing? And 2. Newton looked as big as Brian freaking Orakpo - All-Pro defensive end. Eye opening. I think the durability concerns have little foundation. They are based on the stereo-typical "running QB" and not Cam Newton.If Newton can keep his rushing numbers up - he is the best goal line option in the NFL, RBs included, so I think he can - he has the potential to account for 50+ TDs a season, for years during his career. *When I say Newton is the best, it is because offenses can play 11 on 11, when the QB runs the ball. Newton is scoring less than 3 points a game fewer than the best QB season of all time. That is 0.5 TD/game improvement. Surely he will do that very soon. That doesn't even account for his Ints dropping, which they will.

 

[Concept Coop]

In dynasty you aren't looking at a 10 year window, you are looking at about a 4 year window. Thus I would take Rodgers. More stable situation with the personel and coaches, and better history of performance. Nothing against Cam, but I don't get fooled by flash.

"Newton is scoring less than 3 points a game fewer than the best QB season of all time. That is 0.5 TD/game improvement. Surely he will do that very soon. That doesn't even account for his Ints dropping, which they will."The 4 year window is your personal outlook. But, even if we use it, the question is still very valid.

 

[Caveman_Nick]

Before I got to Cam Newton (in no particular order) I would be drafting:

Aaron Rodgers

Lesean McCoy

Calvin Johnson

Ray Rice

Matt Forte

Adrian Peterson

And if there is any scoring bump for TEs, Gronkowski and Graham.

That's just off the top of my head.

EDIT: I think I would have to consider DeMarco Murray, AJ Green, Mark Ingram, Julio Jones

 

[thriftyrocker]

I have definitely been wrong about Cam, but he is not going to last 7-8 more years at this pace.

In most cases I would agree, but Cam is not built like your typical QB. He's huge and very strong. Actually bigger than a lot of the guys who will be trying to tackle him.

They used to say at 6'4" 260 lbs Daunte had the size of a DE. No wonder he was able to survive the NFL without serious injury and remain productive well into his 30s.

 

[doowain]

No.

 

[FavreAndAwayAnIdiot]

After only 11 games? No. (SEE: 2010 Michael Vick-for-MVP campaign)

 

[Sweet Love]

I have definitely been wrong about Cam, but he is not going to last 7-8 more years at this pace. Doesn't mean he won't be great during that time, or that Carolina will won't greatly benefit from him during that time, but there is going to be a year where they have to hold him back from all the running,

In most cases I would agree, but Cam is not built like your typical QB. He's huge and very strong. Actually bigger than a lot of the guys who will be trying to tackle him. He has only run the ball about 8 times per game this season. I think it's possible that he could sustain that workload for a long time. Of course his legs will go eventually, but that could be 6-7 years from now, if not more. As for Rodgers, I never said that I clearly had him ranked below Newton, but...he's in the midst of what certainly looks like a career year. Peyton Manning has only thrown for over 33 TDs (Rodgers's current mark) one time. Tom Brady has only done it once. It makes you wonder whether what Rodgers is doing right now is really sustainable. I mean, those are some of the best QBs ever and he's on pace to match their best seasons. If you remember what happened when Brady threw for 50 TDs and when Manning threw for 49 TDs, each player was overrated in the following season because people drafted those QBs expecting them to match a level of production that was not sustainable. Is that happening right now with Rodgers? Hard to say, but it's definitely possible that his numbers will drop back down to the level of a mere mortal in the near future. I mean, right now he's probably playing better than any QB ever. I fully expect him to remain an elite FF option, but I don't now if he'll be able to match his current pace ever again in his career. The same is true for Newton, but I think his rushing ability and his potential upside as a passer means it's less likely that his 2011 campaign represents his absolute peak than it is for Rodgers.

I definitely get your point on Cam being different than the other running QBs we have seen (closest may be McNair, but he did breakdown and abandoned the running ways by year 7). I think the closest we have to Cam is Tebow, but when I think of the way Cam runs compared to other running QBs, it is like comparing the way Alsott ran versus Eric Pegram. Vick, Randall, Young and those other guys may have run first at some point in their careers, but they did so when the line opened up. Cam is running like a FB and blowing through people. In his first 4 years, Vick averaged 9.3, 6.9, 6.4 and 7.5 yards per carry (he was running when there was space). Newton is averaging 5.5, which is expected since he is running sneaks and short-yardage dives...not good for his long-term. Problem is, if you take that away from him, you may end up with a 20 TD passing guy when he is in his prime, and that won't get it done in fantasy.

 

[two_dollars]

Does Cam keep padding his FF numbers with double digit touchdown runs every year? Can he throw more tds than ints?

 

[Ray_T]

At QB I'd take Rodgers, easily; I know with 100% certainty that barring catastrophic injury, he will be one of the best players in both FF and the NFL for a long time. And for all the talk of Cam's huge upside, uhh... Rodgers is lapping the field right now. He obviously has 50 passing / handful rushing upside which is no different than 30 passing / 12 rushing in most systems. Most HOF level QBs play well into their mid-30s, so for me the age difference is pretty negligible. Also, we've seen this (Cam type potential) before, or at least close to it - Steve Young, McNair, Vick, Culpepper. Obviously fantastic fantasy QBs, but good enough to take a 50% Steve Young (which sets the bar really effing high) over a 100% young prime Manning? Not for me.Depending on scoring system (start 1 QB/3 WR, PPR, 6 pts TD pass is a common format) I take Calvin at 1.01 alot of times also.

Cam Newton is a fine young QB, but with a young player there is an element of risk.Note what happened to Sam Bradford this year. He had all the same hype that Newton is getting this year.I am not saying the same thing will happen to him but I am saying there is more risk with a young player like this than is typical.based on this, I would say he should go somewhere between pick #8 and pick #15.Keep in mind, just cuz he should go in this range doesnt mean he will.In my mind, the top 5 or 6 RB's in the league and top 3 or 4 QB's should go ahead of him. After that it's a bit of a crapshoot.

 

[Concept Coop]

I have definitely been wrong about Cam, but he is not going to last 7-8 more years at this pace.

In most cases I would agree, but Cam is not built like your typical QB. He's huge and very strong. Actually bigger than a lot of the guys who will be trying to tackle him.

They used to say at 6'4" 260 lbs Daunte had the size of a DE. No wonder he was able to survive the NFL without serious injury and remain productive well into his 30s.

Being 6'4" 240 makes you no more likely to tear 3 major knee ligaments. It does, however, make it easier to absorb routine tackles.

 

[EBF]

Note what happened to Sam Bradford this year. He had all the same hype that Newton is getting this year.

I get your point, but that's a bit of a stretch. Bradford was barely startable in FF leagues last year.What Newton is doing is more comparable to what Vick did in his first season as a starter, though I think it's much more impressive because his passing stats are a lot better. Vick was a top 10 pick in a lot of dynasty leagues the following year. Newton appears to be a bigger, slower Vick with MUCH better passing skills and character.

 

[Concept Coop]

Does Cam keep padding his FF numbers with double digit touchdown runs every year? Can he throw more tds than ints?

I think he is just as likely to double his TD total than cut his rushing TD total in half. If he did both, his numbers would improve.

 

[LittlePhatty]

I have Cam in a dynasty. I'd rather have Rodgers, but I'm not complaining much. Cam is easily a top 10 pick in a startup.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Cam and Aaron Rodgers have the exact same upside - 5000 total yard / 50 total TD all-world numbers. Rodgers is doing it now, Cam might do it someday if he hits his ceiling, but it's definitely unlikely for any player to do that even once, and HUGELY unlikely for anyone to ever be able to do that consistently. Rodgers' floor is what he did from 2008 - 2010 - 4000+ and 30ish passing, 300 and 4 rushing, QB 1 or 2 fantasy finish. Cam's floor, after 11 games, is Kordell Stewart's career. Not saying I think it will happen, but it absolutely could. He's somewhere on the Kordell - McNair - Culpepper - Young range; Rodgers has already proven to be at the Young / HOF level. This shouldn't be a discussion at all yet.

 

[doowain]

Little off topic here, but did anyone else see the exchange between Peyton and Cam after the game this week? Peyton had a genuine interest in talking with Cam, but you could see Cam couldn't wait to get out of there. Now, I have no idea what they say in those little huddles, but one of the best QBs in NFL history is trying to talk to you...making full eye contact...engaging you and you are like a cat on a hot tin roof trying to run away. It seemed, at the very least, disrespectful. I gotta imagine Manning is attempting to give him some kudos, tips, whatever and Cam didn't seem to want any part of it.

I could be reading too much into this. Just seemed off.

 

[Concept Coop]

Cam and Aaron Rodgers have the exact same upside - 5000 total yard / 50 total TD all-world numbers. Rodgers is doing it now, Cam might do it someday if he hits his ceiling, but it's definitely unlikely for any player to do that even once, and HUGELY unlikely for anyone to ever be able to do that consistently. Rodgers' floor is what he did from 2008 - 2010 - 4000+ and 30ish passing, 300 and 4 rushing, QB 1 or 2 fantasy finish. Cam's floor, after 11 games, is Kordell Stewart's career. Not saying I think it will happen, but it absolutely could. He's somewhere on the Kordell - McNair - Culpepper - Young range; Rodgers has already proven to be at the Young / HOF level. This shouldn't be a discussion at all yet.

When a rookie comes in a matches Rodger's career average, it is a discussion. If Trent Richardson scored as many points as Arian Foster (2010) next season, he would be the #1, no questions asked. And Kordell Stewart? Come on, man.And McNair? What does McNair have in common with Cam? McNair was NOT a rushing QB, despite what most seem to remember. HOF level does nothing to score FF points. We are not talking about who the better NFL QB is, or will be.

 

[Concept Coop]

Little off topic here, but did anyone else see the exchange between Peyton and Cam after the game this week? Peyton had a genuine interest in talking with Cam, but you could see Cam couldn't wait to get out of there. Now, I have no idea what they say in those little huddles, but one of the best QBs in NFL history is trying to talk to you...making full eye contact...engaging you and you are like a cat on a hot tin roof trying to run away. It seemed, at the very least, disrespectful. I gotta imagine Manning is attempting to give him some kudos, tips, whatever and Cam didn't seem to want any part of it.I could be reading too much into this. Just seemed off.

Cam is odd. Michael Jordan odd. The same thing that makes them push to be great, rubs people the wrong way - rightfully so in many cases.

 

[Reepicheep]

Cam and Aaron Rodgers have the exact same upside - 5000 total yard / 50 total TD all-world numbers. Rodgers is doing it now, Cam might do it someday if he hits his ceiling, but it's definitely unlikely for any player to do that even once, and HUGELY unlikely for anyone to ever be able to do that consistently. Rodgers' floor is what he did from 2008 - 2010 - 4000+ and 30ish passing, 300 and 4 rushing, QB 1 or 2 fantasy finish. Cam's floor, after 11 games, is Kordell Stewart's career. Not saying I think it will happen, but it absolutely could. He's somewhere on the Kordell - McNair - Culpepper - Young range; Rodgers has already proven to be at the Young / HOF level. This shouldn't be a discussion at all yet.

When a rookie comes in a matches Rodger's career average, it is a discussion. If Trent Richardson scored as many points as Arian Foster (2010) next season, he would be the #1, no questions asked. And Kordell Stewart? Come on, man.

And McNair? What does McNair have in common with Cam? McNair was NOT a rushing QB, despite what most seem to remember.

HOF level does nothing to score FF points. We are not talking about who the better NFL QB is, or will be.

That is so wierd I could have sworn he was a rushing QB. I wonder how he ended up being 5th all time in career rushing yards and 3rd in rushing TDs by a QB?

 

[Concept Coop]

Cam and Aaron Rodgers have the exact same upside - 5000 total yard / 50 total TD all-world numbers. Rodgers is doing it now, Cam might do it someday if he hits his ceiling, but it's definitely unlikely for any player to do that even once, and HUGELY unlikely for anyone to ever be able to do that consistently. Rodgers' floor is what he did from 2008 - 2010 - 4000+ and 30ish passing, 300 and 4 rushing, QB 1 or 2 fantasy finish. Cam's floor, after 11 games, is Kordell Stewart's career. Not saying I think it will happen, but it absolutely could. He's somewhere on the Kordell - McNair - Culpepper - Young range; Rodgers has already proven to be at the Young / HOF level. This shouldn't be a discussion at all yet.

When a rookie comes in a matches Rodger's career average, it is a discussion. If Trent Richardson scored as many points as Arian Foster (2010) next season, he would be the #1, no questions asked. And Kordell Stewart? Come on, man.

And McNair? What does McNair have in common with Cam? McNair was NOT a rushing QB, despite what most seem to remember.

HOF level does nothing to score FF points. We are not talking about who the better NFL QB is, or will be.

That is so wierd I could have sworn he was a rushing QB. I wonder how he ended up being 5th all time in career rushing yards and 3rd in rushing TDs by a QB?

Wow. I stand corrected (in a big way). I claim ingnorance due to age.

 

[thriftyrocker]

Little off topic here, but did anyone else see the exchange between Peyton and Cam after the game this week? Peyton had a genuine interest in talking with Cam, but you could see Cam couldn't wait to get out of there. Now, I have no idea what they say in those little huddles, but one of the best QBs in NFL history is trying to talk to you...making full eye contact...engaging you and you are like a cat on a hot tin roof trying to run away. It seemed, at the very least, disrespectful. I gotta imagine Manning is attempting to give him some kudos, tips, whatever and Cam didn't seem to want any part of it.I could be reading too much into this. Just seemed off.

Cam is odd. Michael Jordan odd. The same thing that makes them push to be great, rubs people the wrong way - rightfully so in many cases.

First of all comparing Cam to Jordan gets a big Beat someone other than John Beck and Curtis Painter first.Second of all, Jordan was shunned from his rookie year because the stars at the time hated how he became so big so fast. See 1985 All star game and his drive to embarrass guys after that. This is the complete opposite situation. You've got a top 5 all time player coming to shake your hand who didn't even play that day. But I wouldn't read too much into it.

 

[Boston]

I have zero issues with taking Cam #1...what he is doing as a rookie (who many said was not NFL-ready and would have a pretty long adjustment period) is pretty amazing...that being said I would probably go with Rodgers as you really aren't guessing about his future...he's an absolute-known commodity who is in his prime, is surrounded by a lot of offensive fire-power and has a coach who is known for his grasp of the offensive-side of the ball in the NFL and isn't afraid to have his team put up points...outside of injury there is almost no downside to Rodgers so why pass on that with the hope you're going to get maybe five more TDs a year at the most...you're not going to lose a fantasy title because you took Rodgers over Newton...

As for Newton the sky's the limit...the kid is a freak and he should be a fantasy-force for year's to come...I see a few issues (good and bad) that could influence his future...on the (potential) negative side defenses will be more prepared for him next year...doesn't mean they'll stop him but that is something to watch...the negative I do see is the rushing TDs...that's an area that seems to be in flux on a year-to-year basis with QBs...I do get nervous relying on that...on a positive note as long as the kid's head is on straight (and it appears to be) there's no telling how far his upside is...also, he's having a monster year with pretty pedestrian weapons outside of Steve Smith...you have to believe he's going to be playing with a lot more firepower in the upcoming years...the kids a stud and can easily be the centerpiece of a winning fantasy team for year's to come...

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Kordell, McNair, Vick, and Culpepper were all primary goal-line running weapons, along with providing solid to great passing #s at one point. Go ahead and look it up, Coop. Generally, as QBs develop, they rely less on their legs and more on their arm. If Cam learns to buy time and find the open guy in the red zone to the tune of 30+ passing TDs, then chances are he won't need take the beating involved in running 10+ TDs in himself. A realistic upside expectation is him settling in at 30 - 35 total TDs like other elite QBs. To expect more than that from ANYONE consistently is ridiculous. We know for a fact that Rodgers

WILL do that for the foreseeable future, barring injury. It's

also absurd to dismiss the bust risk involved with ANY player after 11 career starts when compared to a guy who has done it for 4 years.

 

[Concept Coop]

Little off topic here, but did anyone else see the exchange between Peyton and Cam after the game this week? Peyton had a genuine interest in talking with Cam, but you could see Cam couldn't wait to get out of there. Now, I have no idea what they say in those little huddles, but one of the best QBs in NFL history is trying to talk to you...making full eye contact...engaging you and you are like a cat on a hot tin roof trying to run away. It seemed, at the very least, disrespectful. I gotta imagine Manning is attempting to give him some kudos, tips, whatever and Cam didn't seem to want any part of it.I could be reading too much into this. Just seemed off.

Cam is odd. Michael Jordan odd. The same thing that makes them push to be great, rubs people the wrong way - rightfully so in many cases.

First of all comparing Cam to Jordan gets a big Beat someone other than John Beck and Curtis Painter first.Second of all, Jordan was shunned from his rookie year because the stars at the time hated how he became so big so fast. See 1985 All star game and his drive to embarrass guys after that. This is the complete opposite situation. You've got a top 5 all time player coming to shake your hand who didn't even play that day. But I wouldn't read too much into it.

I am comparing their personality types, not accomplishments. They both seemed to have exaggerated opinions of their abilities - Jordan spent his career proving more and more, when there was really, to most people, nothing left to prove. He still aims to prove his highschool coach wrong for cutting him, after proving to be the best player of all time. Cam is not the jerk that Jordan was (is), but he seems to share the chip on his shoulder, and the drive to be the best ever, not one of them. Cam, by breaking records and exceeding everyone's (but his) expectations, is only doing his job, in his mind. He is not impressed by what he has done, nor surprised by it. It is clear why Jordan was hated, and jealousy was only part of it: he didn't want to earn the praise of the greats before him; he wanted to destroy them; both those he played against and those he would soon be compaired from other eras.I am not claiming Peytong Manning is jealous. I am claiming that, yes, it was odd that Newton wasn't all about that conversation. That "odd" reminds me of Michael Jordan.

 

[Domination]

I do not doubt Cams's ability or immensly high ceiling. I also know that a young stud QB could carry your franchise for years. But QB seems very deep with already established guys and the Top 4 coming out of the draft next yr. I would have a hard time drafting him at 1.01, when I think I could solidify another position there, and come back with a comperable QB later.

Cam could be the best QB to ever have for fantasy, but I don't think that I would chance the next few years with the #1 pick, if he were to struggle as most young players do.

 

[ivnabru]

Does Cam keep padding his FF numbers with double digit touchdown runs every year? Can he throw more tds than ints?

I think he is just as likely to double his TD total than cut his rushing TD total in half. If he did both, his numbers would improve.

Cam is on pace for 32 total TDs this season.Over the last 6 years (since his 49 TD season) Peyton has averaged slightly less than 32 TDs (rush + pass) per year in an offense that was probably as good as what we can expect from the Carolina Panthers over the next 2-3 years. Over his 13 year career Peyton has averaged exactly 32 TDs/season (rush + pass) Do you really think it's a safe bet that Cam Newton will continue to score as many TDs on average as the most prolific touchdown scorer in the history of the NFL??? Favre by comparison only averaged 28 or so TDs (run and pass) per 16 game season.It's possible, but I'd say more likely than not Cam will end his career averaging less than 32 TDs per 16 games.