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Is David Wilson a sell-high? (1 Viewer)

I think it's still a good question. Gianmarco asked how much higher can he get? Well, FBGs has him ranked @ RB12. That's pretty damned high for a guy with no NFL resume other than being benched for a fumbling problem. I don't think an average showing would boost him much higher. He could be the next LeSean McCoy. He could also be the next Reggie Bush. But I know he's never going to be the next Adrian Peterson or Trent Richardson.
Yea isn't it a little early to declare Trent Richardson the next ADP???

 
At the same time they have a track record of RBBC
No they don't. See my post above.
Yes they do. I have been paying attention to Giants football for decades and Coughlin is still the coach. Not interested in a argument about semantics.
It's not an argument about semantics. 8 of the last 9 years, a NYG RB has had or was on pace to have (and didn't due to injury) 250+ carries while the second RB didn't have over 150. If you think that's RBBC, then we have completely different definitions.
 
As of now, I would rather have Wilson than any rookie running back for this season and in Dynasty.

What has Wilson been going for and been offered for in Dynasty?

 
At the same time they have a track record of RBBC
No they don't. See my post above.
Yes they do. I have been paying attention to Giants football for decades and Coughlin is still the coach. Not interested in a argument about semantics.
It's not an argument about semantics. 8 of the last 9 years, a NYG RB has had or was on pace to have (and didn't due to injury) 250+ carries while the second RB didn't have over 150.If you think that's RBBC, then we have completely different definitions.
Exactly. Which is why it is semantics. I had this argument with SSOG before and it was totally pointless then as well.

A true RBBC would rotate its RB every game. A lesser form would be based on opponent, some RB getting more action than others. Another form would be a RB rotation in planning but injuries cause one of the RB to be used more than if all of them had remained healthy. For team philosophy it would mean using a high pick on the RB position at least every 4 years with the intent to have some overlap in elite players at the position that will be in direct competition for carries. I see the Giants as a team that has followed that philosophy for a pretty long time. Even their best RB Tiki Barber had to share time for parts of his career. Is Wilson a talent equal to Barber that will break this philosophy? I don't think so. Wilson will likely have a high draft pick at RB competing with him as soon as next season. Things are certainly lined up for him to get the opportunity to be the feature RB this season. I have doubts about him being able to maintain that, but maybe he will if he is as good or better than Tiki Barber. That is a pretty tall order. I am skeptical.

As far as your criteria of there needing to be a RB who had 250 carries along side another RB who had 150 carries. I do not think that is a reasonable definition of a RBBC. The Giants have only had a RB get more than 250 carries 6 times since they drafted Tiki Barber. Barber had 5 of them and Bradshaw had one. So 6 times out of the last 16 seasons. Those 5 years of Barber doing so followed his 1st 5 seasons of not doing so, but having more than 150 carries twice in a time share with other RB. While Bradshaw has had over 150 carries 3 times compared to his one over 250.

Ron Dayne had 2 seasons over 150 carries before giving way to Barber. He still had 125 carries in 2002 which is the 1st time the Giants had a RB over 250 carries since Barber was drafted. Dayne also had 2 more seasons over 150 carries later on in his career with Houston.

Derrick Ward had one season over 150 carries and one other over 100 with the Giants. He got a starting opportunity with Tampa but couldn't stay healthy enough to keep it.

Brandon Jacobs had 4 seasons over 150 carries, another at 147 and one at 96 where he also scored 9TD.

So to sum up there have been 6 times out of 16 where there has been a RB over 250 carries. There has been 12-13 times where a RB gets more than 150 carries. So some form of time share is was present twice as often as it was not. By your own definition.

I think a player is missing from what the final Giants RB roster will look like on game day. They may add Bradshaw or Hightower or who knows? That may be a good reason to trade him right now because all signs are showing very little competition. If you add Bradshaw back to the mix then what would your expectations be for Wilson in 2013?

 
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http://espn.go.com/blog/nfceast/post/_/id/51480/twitter-mailbag-protecting-eli-manning

Twitter mailbag: Protecting Eli Manning
Excerpt:

@espn_nfceast a lot has been made of David Wilson's issues in pass protection, but how is Andre Brown at it? #nfceastmail

@ESPN_NFCEast: As those are the two backs most likely to handle the carries in the New York Giants' running game, this is a question the Giants coaches will spend the offseason trying to answer. If you look at the Pro Football Focus grades from last year, they gave Brown a grade of +1.2 as a blocker, which ranked him 25th among the 59 backs who played at least 25 percent of their teams' snaps. So, not bad. Wilson got a grade of -0.6, which would have ranked him 39th on that same list if he'd played enough snaps to qualify. The issue for the Giants isn't that Brown or Wilson is bad pass protection, because they're not. The issue is that Ahmad Bradshaw, who was released earlier in the offseason for injury and salary cap reasons, is the best back in the entire league in pass protection. Bradshaw's PFF blocking grade was a league-best 6.2 last year. The No. 2 back on the list, Washington's Alfred Morris, got a 3.8. After him, Green Bay's Alex Green came in third at 3.3. In 2011, Bradshaw pulled down a 3.7 in that same category, second in the league to Fred Jackson. In 2010, he got a 10.1, which led the league by a mile over Jackson's 5.4. There is, quite simply, absolutely no back in the league who picks up the blitz better than Bradshaw does. So the issue for the Giants is the extent to which they relied on that and whether they'll be able to even come close to replacing it. Wilson and Brown could have very good pass-protection seasons and still not offer what Bradshaw offered in that area. This is likely why you see the Giants interested in Tim Hightower, whose reputation is that of an excellent pass-blocking back. They can get by with what they have, but it's reasonable for them to fear what Bradshaw's departure will mean for their ability to protect Eli Manning.
 
I think it's still a good question. Gianmarco asked how much higher can he get? Well, FBGs has him ranked @ RB12. That's pretty damned high for a guy with no NFL resume other than being benched for a fumbling problem. I don't think an average showing would boost him much higher. He could be the next LeSean McCoy. He could also be the next Reggie Bush. But I know he's never going to be the next Adrian Peterson or Trent Richardson.
Yea isn't it a little early to declare Trent Richardson the next ADP???
Who did that?

 
monk said:
There's no player I have more question marks on than David Wilson.

The first game of his career, he fumbled. He's shown a lot of flash and ability on Kick Returns but then again so has Leon Washington. He is quick but I never see him make anybody miss, spin, or juke anyone out. He doesn't really have one "football move" that sticks out to me.

Wilson average 5.0 Yards Per Carry last-year which is promising, however Andre Brown ran for 5.3 Yard Per Carry on more carries.

Wilson had 71 carries and scored 4 Touchdowns.

Brown had 73 carries and scored 8 Touchdowns.

Personally, I thought David Wilson looked AWFUL catching passes last-year. Complete body-catcher. I give the guy a lot of credit he takes a lot of contact, has very good balance, and can hit the homerun.

His play reminds me a lot of Maurice Jones-Drew, they probably have about the same amount of breakaway speed. But when Wilson goes for contact, a lot of times he doesn't get any push forward.

Despite all this, people are willing to pay alot for this kid in Dynasty. I think I might be selling, thoughts?
Since it appears that you wrote this without ever seeing David Wilson play ... I will provide you with this link below.

No Forward Push? Ask Lofton and the Saints if they agree

No Jukes, No Spins, no ability to make people miss? Count em . ... there is more in his partial season highlights then most RBs career highlights

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uviR8HjLDxk
The Saints defense was dog#### last year.

EDIT: And I've definitely seen him play you fool. Again, isn't it peculiar most of his highlights came on kick returns? Sure, he looks like a man among boys because of his explosiveness on them.

But against normal defense he didn't "pop" off the screen to me. Sure, the few runs where he accelerated through the hole perfectly were nice. But those are the kinds of plays I want from my change-of-pace guy, not the guy getting the bulk of the carries.

...and also note that some of those runs in the highlights you posted came from preseason (when he's wearing #34).

 
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At the same time they have a track record of RBBC
No they don't. See my post above.
Yes they do. I have been paying attention to Giants football for decades and Coughlin is still the coach. Not interested in a argument about semantics.
It's not an argument about semantics. 8 of the last 9 years, a NYG RB has had or was on pace to have (and didn't due to injury) 250+ carries while the second RB didn't have over 150.If you think that's RBBC, then we have completely different definitions.
Sorry - then I am confused. Please clarify - the Giants have a record for drafting good RBs or injury prone ones? Or do we only look at "on pace for" stats now because they fit your point?

Here's another stat: for the past 6 years running (i.e. the non-Barber years) the lead back (which many are presuming will be Wilson - but we do not even know for sure) has averaged 219 carries per season. That would have been 20th last season.

In fact Bradhshaw's "big year" of 276 carries he finished RB 13, despite being top 10 in RB receptions too.

RB12 is what some have Wilson ranked - and if you can get higher value than that, I would move him. He's probably a borderline RB1 - but I would have reservations about valuing him much higher than that.

No one is saying "give hime away for nothing" - but selling high, especially if "high" is top 10 RB value or more (someone mentioned THE RB1 in dynasty) - easily, given his lack of track record and the crazy hype surrounding him and his value.

Oh, and listing height and weight of Barber and Bradshaw...really? Donald Brown is 5' 10" 210 too - and Giovani Bernard of Cincy is 5' 10" 205, and no one is calling for them to be a top 12 dynatsy RB. Oh...and before you say those are silly comparisons - Brown was drafted with 27th overall pick...Wilson 32nd.

 
At the same time they have a track record of RBBC
No they don't. See my post above.
Yes they do. I have been paying attention to Giants football for decades and Coughlin is still the coach. Not interested in a argument about semantics.
It's not an argument about semantics. 8 of the last 9 years, a NYG RB has had or was on pace to have (and didn't due to injury) 250+ carries while the second RB didn't have over 150.If you think that's RBBC, then we have completely different definitions.
Sorry - then I am confused. Please clarify - the Giants have a record for drafting good RBs or injury prone ones? Or do we only look at "on pace for" stats now because they fit your point?

Here's another stat: for the past 6 years running (i.e. the non-Barber years) the lead back (which many are presuming will be Wilson - but we do not even know for sure) has averaged 219 carries per season. That would have been 20th last season.

In fact Bradhshaw's "big year" of 276 carries he finished RB 13, despite being top 10 in RB receptions too.

RB12 is what some have Wilson ranked - and if you can get higher value than that, I would move him. He's probably a borderline RB1 - but I would have reservations about valuing him much higher than that.

No one is saying "give hime away for nothing" - but selling high, especially if "high" is top 10 RB value or more (someone mentioned THE RB1 in dynasty) - easily, given his lack of track record and the crazy hype surrounding him and his value.

Oh, and listing height and weight of Barber and Bradshaw...really? Donald Brown is 5' 10" 210 too - and Giovani Bernard of Cincy is 5' 10" 205, and no one is calling for them to be a top 12 dynatsy RB. Oh...and before you say those are silly comparisons - Brown was drafted with 27th overall pick...Wilson 32nd.
Bernard hasn't played a down and Brown has underwhelmed... If you want to bail on guys after their rookie season, you would miss out on the McCoys, Charles and Spillers of the league. I try to build my teams with promising young players. Once acquired, I like to hold them until things play out. I'm not going to dump them for a "proven" player with miles because things can change pretty fast in the NFL.

 
Oh, and listing height and weight of Barber and Bradshaw...really? Donald Brown is 5' 10" 210 too - and Giovani Bernard of Cincy is 5' 10" 205, and no one is calling for them to be a top 12 dynatsy RB. Oh...and before you say those are silly comparisons - Brown was drafted with 27th overall pick...Wilson 32nd.
Did you miss the context of why he posted the heights and weights of the three backs?
 
At the same time they have a track record of RBBC
No they don't. See my post above.
Yes they do. I have been paying attention to Giants football for decades and Coughlin is still the coach. Not interested in a argument about semantics.
Don't let facts sway your opinions.
I won't when they are contrived to present something other than the truth.
I think there's truth in both statements actually. The Giants certainly do use more than one RB, but generally there is one who is significantly more valuable than the others - Tiki & Jacobs, Bradshaw & Jacobs, Bradshaw & Brown, etc. I honestly think Wilson will be very good, but Brown if healthy will get a significant number of touches as he's a strong RB in his own right.

 
At the same time they have a track record of RBBC
No they don't. See my post above.
Yes they do. I have been paying attention to Giants football for decades and Coughlin is still the coach. Not interested in a argument about semantics.
Don't let facts sway your opinions.
I won't when they are contrived to present something other than the truth.
Dude, give it a rest. There's nothing "contrived".

I laid out year by year for the last 9 years the carry breakdown. There is zero question that one RB is leaned on much more heavily and that Coughlin has done this with multiple backs. Your point about them getting a new RB every few years is legit, but there's nothing "contrived" about my post whatsoever. Congrats on following the Giants so closely that only you seem to know what's going on there.

 
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I would be trying to use Wilson as a stepping stone to an established stud like McCoy right now. If you can do something like Wilson + a mid-low 2013 first to get up to a McCoy/Spiller type, that seems like a good use of Wilson's speculative value.

 
I would be trying to use Wilson as a stepping stone to an established stud like McCoy right now. If you can do something like Wilson + a mid-low 2013 first to get up to a McCoy/Spiller type, that seems like a good use of Wilson's speculative value.
I agree with this. By doing this, you're mitigating the risk of Wilson becoming a RB1, because you're already getting a guaranteed RB1. At the same time, you're relieving yourself of the risk of Wilson busting outright.

 
I would be trying to use Wilson as a stepping stone to an established stud like McCoy right now. If you can do something like Wilson + a mid-low 2013 first to get up to a McCoy/Spiller type, that seems like a good use of Wilson's speculative value.
Agreed. If you can sell Wilson for someone that IS an RB1, rather than hoping he will be someday. Especially if you are tossing in draft picks from this year's rookie draft (which is significantly weaker than last year's, imho).

 
I would be trying to use Wilson as a stepping stone to an established stud like McCoy right now. If you can do something like Wilson + a mid-low 2013 first to get up to a McCoy/Spiller type, that seems like a good use of Wilson's speculative value.
:goodposting:Definitely not a guy you want to just take anything to move, but seems like roughly half of the FF world has already annointed him as a sure thing stud. He's still just a prospect at this point -- a good prospect to be sure, but he still has a bunch of question marks re: usage (particularly as a receiver), durability, effectiveness, etc.
 
At the same time they have a track record of RBBC
No they don't. See my post above.
Yes they do. I have been paying attention to Giants football for decades and Coughlin is still the coach. Not interested in a argument about semantics.
Don't let facts sway your opinions.
I won't when they are contrived to present something other than the truth.
I thought facts were the truth

 
I would be trying to use Wilson as a stepping stone to an established stud like McCoy right now. If you can do something like Wilson + a mid-low 2013 first to get up to a McCoy/Spiller type, that seems like a good use of Wilson's speculative value.
:goodposting:Definitely not a guy you want to just take anything to move, but seems like roughly half of the FF world has already annointed him as a sure thing stud. He's still just a prospect at this point -- a good prospect to be sure, but he still has a bunch of question marks re: usage (particularly as a receiver), durability, effectiveness, etc.
I'm of the same mind. And I still haven't heard much mention of his fumble tendencies. He had incredible upside last year too, showing elite speed and quickness in training camp and preseason (heck, I thought he looked better than Doug Martin all the way up until the season kicked off), and throughout the year as a return man. But his fumbling kept him in the dog house; who's to say that his butterfinger tendencies don't keep him there this year (and beyond), despite all the promise he shows?

 
I would be trying to use Wilson as a stepping stone to an established stud like McCoy right now. If you can do something like Wilson + a mid-low 2013 first to get up to a McCoy/Spiller type, that seems like a good use of Wilson's speculative value.
:goodposting:Definitely not a guy you want to just take anything to move, but seems like roughly half of the FF world has already annointed him as a sure thing stud. He's still just a prospect at this point -- a good prospect to be sure, but he still has a bunch of question marks re: usage (particularly as a receiver), durability, effectiveness, etc.
I'm of the same mind. And I still haven't heard much mention of his fumble tendencies. He had incredible upside last year too, showing elite speed and quickness in training camp and preseason (heck, I thought he looked better than Doug Martin all the way up until the season kicked off), and throughout the year as a return man. But his fumbling kept him in the dog house; who's to say that his butterfinger tendencies don't keep him there this year (and beyond), despite all the promise he shows?
He fumbled once last year ... that is why you haven't heard much mention of his fumble tendencies

 
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I would be trying to use Wilson as a stepping stone to an established stud like McCoy right now. If you can do something like Wilson + a mid-low 2013 first to get up to a McCoy/Spiller type, that seems like a good use of Wilson's speculative value.
Trying is one thing, getting it done is another. No one in my leagues giving Spiller or McCoy for Wilson and low 1st.
 
As someone that has owned at least one Giants RB for each of the last 6 seasons, it surprises me that there is even a discussion being had as to whether or not the Giants have used a RBBC. I saw far too many points being scored while my RB was holding his helmet on the sidelines to believe it.

Here are the percentage of carries that the Giants' leading rusher has seen each of the last 6 years.

2012: 54%
2011: 41%
2010: 57%
2009: 50%
2008: 43%
2007: 44%

Perhaps even more damning is the fact that, in that same timeframe, the Giants second leading rusher each season has received a combined 842 carries. That is the 2nd most in the entire NFL, coming in just behind everyone's favorite RBBC in Carolina, which had 882.

Anyone arguing that NYG has not been a RBBC recently is arguing with an agenda, the same way that many people who liked Ingram twisted and turned reality to convince themselves that Sean Payton wanted nothing more than to have a feature back when there were clear indications otherwise.

David Wilson could very well change things, especially with another Andre Brown injury. He could also very well get enough touches to be a top 10 fantasy back even with a share similar to what the Giants have been doing recently. But to try and contend that they've used a RBBC in recent history is like arguing that Carolina hasn't used a RBBC recently. They've had one of the heaviest committee approaches in the NFL and have kept up with even the infamous Carolina RBBC almost stride for stride.
 
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2012: 54%2011: 41%2010: 57%2009: 50%2008: 43%2007: 44%.
That fails to take injuries into account. In 2007 and 2008 Jacobs missed 1/4 of the season. When he played he got 17.5 carries a game and close to 19 total touches.2010 was the only year you brought up the Giants feature back was on the field for all 16 games. 57% of a teams total carries is not a RBBC to me, especially if that RB is getting over 17 carries a game and over 20 total touches.Historically speaking the Giants under Coughlin typically get their lead runner about 16-18 carries and 19-20 total touches per game.That may not be a 350 carry workload but it's not a RBBC either.
 
2012: 54%2011: 41%2010: 57%2009: 50%2008: 43%2007: 44%.
That fails to take injuries into account.In 2007 and 2008 Jacobs missed 1/4 of the season. When he played he got 17.5 carries a game and close to 19 total touches.2010 was the only year you brought up the Giants feature back was on the field for all 16 games. 57% of a teams total carries is not a RBBC to me, especially if that RB is getting over 17 carries a game and over 20 total touches.Historically speaking the Giants under Coughlin typically get their lead runner about 16-18 carries and 19-20 total touches per game.That may not be a 350 carry workload but it's not a RBBC either.
And in 2010, despite 275+ carries and almost 50 receptions Bradshaw still finished - not RB1, not even top 10 - at RB13 . Why? Because Brandon Jacobs had 147 rushing attempts himself... and 1 more rushing TD than Bradshaw did. And, as you already pointed out, that is THE high water mark over the past 6 seasons. If RB13 is Wilson's ceiling (which is already presuming an awful lot - like he's the unquestioned lead runner, makes it all 16 games, etc.) and you can trade him for someone who is already proven he will be a true RB1 (i.e. top 10) - than you should clearly "sell high".

Many of those who have been on this board for years (and some who oddly are touting Wilson in this thread) have seen countless "bell cow" RB threads - and countless RBBC threads. And the NY football Giants RBs have almost always appeared in the latter, not the former. Now, simply because some of you own Wilson, you have decided to look back at the stats through rose-colored (and with "on pace for" or "if you don't count injuries") glasses...instead of looking at the actual stats and what they have meant in terms of actual production.

In my leagues, when RBs miss games, I don't get any points for the carries they would have had if they weren't hurt. I also don't get the points for TDs that Jacobs scored while Bradshaw sipped Gatorade. And Wilson owners won't get points while Andre Brown is diving into the endzone on 3rd and 1 from the 1 - or whoever is the "Thunder" to Wilson's "lightning".

Could Wilson prove to be more talented and more productive than Bradshaw was in his prime? Sure. But if you can trade a player for someone who already IS what you hope Wilson will become eventually, if everything breaks just perfectly, than you should. Again, I am not saying dump the guy for a WR2 - but if you can get any of the top 10-12 RBs for him - even if you have to include a 2013 1st rounder - I couldn't hit accept fast enough.

 
2012: 54%2011: 41%2010: 57%2009: 50%2008: 43%2007: 44%.
That fails to take injuries into account.In 2007 and 2008 Jacobs missed 1/4 of the season. When he played he got 17.5 carries a game and close to 19 total touches.2010 was the only year you brought up the Giants feature back was on the field for all 16 games. 57% of a teams total carries is not a RBBC to me, especially if that RB is getting over 17 carries a game and over 20 total touches.Historically speaking the Giants under Coughlin typically get their lead runner about 16-18 carries and 19-20 total touches per game.That may not be a 350 carry workload but it's not a RBBC either.
And in 2010, despite 275+ carries and almost 50 receptions Bradshaw still finished - not RB1, not even top 10 - at RB13 . Why? Because Brandon Jacobs had 147 rushing attempts himself... and 1 more rushing TD than Bradshaw did. And, as you already pointed out, that is THE high water mark over the past 6 seasons. If RB13 is Wilson's ceiling (which is already presuming an awful lot - like he's the unquestioned lead runner, makes it all 16 games, etc.) and you can trade him for someone who is already proven he will be a true RB1 (i.e. top 10) - than you should clearly "sell high".

Many of those who have been on this board for years (and some who oddly are touting Wilson in this thread) have seen countless "bell cow" RB threads - and countless RBBC threads. And the NY football Giants RBs have almost always appeared in the latter, not the former. Now, simply because some of you own Wilson, you have decided to look back at the stats through rose-colored (and with "on pace for" or "if you don't count injuries") glasses...instead of looking at the actual stats and what they have meant in terms of actual production.

In my leagues, when RBs miss games, I don't get any points for the carries they would have had if they weren't hurt. I also don't get the points for TDs that Jacobs scored while Bradshaw sipped Gatorade. And Wilson owners won't get points while Andre Brown is diving into the endzone on 3rd and 1 from the 1 - or whoever is the "Thunder" to Wilson's "lightning".

Could Wilson prove to be more talented and more productive than Bradshaw was in his prime? Sure. But if you can trade a player for someone who already IS what you hope Wilson will become eventually, if everything breaks just perfectly, than you should. Again, I am not saying dump the guy for a WR2 - but if you can get any of the top 10-12 RBs for him - even if you have to include a 2013 1st rounder - I couldn't hit accept fast enough.
2012: 54%2011: 41%2010: 57%2009: 50%2008: 43%2007: 44%.
That fails to take injuries into account.In 2007 and 2008 Jacobs missed 1/4 of the season. When he played he got 17.5 carries a game and close to 19 total touches.2010 was the only year you brought up the Giants feature back was on the field for all 16 games. 57% of a teams total carries is not a RBBC to me, especially if that RB is getting over 17 carries a game and over 20 total touches.Historically speaking the Giants under Coughlin typically get their lead runner about 16-18 carries and 19-20 total touches per game.That may not be a 350 carry workload but it's not a RBBC either.
And in 2010, despite 275+ carries and almost 50 receptions Bradshaw still finished - not RB1, not even top 10 - at RB13 . Why? Because Brandon Jacobs had 147 rushing attempts himself... and 1 more rushing TD than Bradshaw did. And, as you already pointed out, that is THE high water mark over the past 6 seasons. If RB13 is Wilson's ceiling (which is already presuming an awful lot - like he's the unquestioned lead runner, makes it all 16 games, etc.) and you can trade him for someone who is already proven he will be a true RB1 (i.e. top 10) - than you should clearly "sell high".

Many of those who have been on this board for years (and some who oddly are touting Wilson in this thread) have seen countless "bell cow" RB threads - and countless RBBC threads. And the NY football Giants RBs have almost always appeared in the latter, not the former. Now, simply because some of you own Wilson, you have decided to look back at the stats through rose-colored (and with "on pace for" or "if you don't count injuries") glasses...instead of looking at the actual stats and what they have meant in terms of actual production.

In my leagues, when RBs miss games, I don't get any points for the carries they would have had if they weren't hurt. I also don't get the points for TDs that Jacobs scored while Bradshaw sipped Gatorade. And Wilson owners won't get points while Andre Brown is diving into the endzone on 3rd and 1 from the 1 - or whoever is the "Thunder" to Wilson's "lightning".

Could Wilson prove to be more talented and more productive than Bradshaw was in his prime? Sure. But if you can trade a player for someone who already IS what you hope Wilson will become eventually, if everything breaks just perfectly, than you should. Again, I am not saying dump the guy for a WR2 - but if you can get any of the top 10-12 RBs for him - even if you have to include a 2013 1st rounder - I couldn't hit accept fast enough.
Those of us high on David Wilson are not high on him because we think we might have found the next Ahmad Bradshaw. So no I don't agree that RB13 is Wilson's ceiling and it's trivial to me where Bradshaw ranked.

I'm not looking through anything with rose colored glasses. I'm looking at actual numbers per games played to get a guage on usage.

As for looking through things with rose colored glasses. That's when someone does something like trot out the Giants RB usage the last 6 years. That's a rose colored glasses BS argument and you know it and anyone trying to pull a stunt like that to argue the Giants run a RBBC knows it. Tom Coughlins been there a lot longer than 6 years and there's a reason the argument the Giants are a RBBC was framed as 6 year look back and not more.

 
2012: 54%2011: 41%2010: 57%2009: 50%2008: 43%2007: 44%.
That fails to take injuries into account.In 2007 and 2008 Jacobs missed 1/4 of the season. When he played he got 17.5 carries a game and close to 19 total touches.2010 was the only year you brought up the Giants feature back was on the field for all 16 games. 57% of a teams total carries is not a RBBC to me, especially if that RB is getting over 17 carries a game and over 20 total touches.Historically speaking the Giants under Coughlin typically get their lead runner about 16-18 carries and 19-20 total touches per game.That may not be a 350 carry workload but it's not a RBBC either.
And in 2010, despite 275+ carries and almost 50 receptions Bradshaw still finished - not RB1, not even top 10 - at RB13 . Why? Because Brandon Jacobs had 147 rushing attempts himself... and 1 more rushing TD than Bradshaw did. And, as you already pointed out, that is THE high water mark over the past 6 seasons. If RB13 is Wilson's ceiling (which is already presuming an awful lot - like he's the unquestioned lead runner, makes it all 16 games, etc.) and you can trade him for someone who is already proven he will be a true RB1 (i.e. top 10) - than you should clearly "sell high".

Many of those who have been on this board for years (and some who oddly are touting Wilson in this thread) have seen countless "bell cow" RB threads - and countless RBBC threads. And the NY football Giants RBs have almost always appeared in the latter, not the former. Now, simply because some of you own Wilson, you have decided to look back at the stats through rose-colored (and with "on pace for" or "if you don't count injuries") glasses...instead of looking at the actual stats and what they have meant in terms of actual production.

In my leagues, when RBs miss games, I don't get any points for the carries they would have had if they weren't hurt. I also don't get the points for TDs that Jacobs scored while Bradshaw sipped Gatorade. And Wilson owners won't get points while Andre Brown is diving into the endzone on 3rd and 1 from the 1 - or whoever is the "Thunder" to Wilson's "lightning".

Could Wilson prove to be more talented and more productive than Bradshaw was in his prime? Sure. But if you can trade a player for someone who already IS what you hope Wilson will become eventually, if everything breaks just perfectly, than you should. Again, I am not saying dump the guy for a WR2 - but if you can get any of the top 10-12 RBs for him - even if you have to include a 2013 1st rounder - I couldn't hit accept fast enough.
>

2012: 54%2011: 41%2010: 57%2009: 50%2008: 43%2007: 44%.
That fails to take injuries into account.In 2007 and 2008 Jacobs missed 1/4 of the season. When he played he got 17.5 carries a game and close to 19 total touches.2010 was the only year you brought up the Giants feature back was on the field for all 16 games. 57% of a teams total carries is not a RBBC to me, especially if that RB is getting over 17 carries a game and over 20 total touches.Historically speaking the Giants under Coughlin typically get their lead runner about 16-18 carries and 19-20 total touches per game.That may not be a 350 carry workload but it's not a RBBC either.
And in 2010, despite 275+ carries and almost 50 receptions Bradshaw still finished - not RB1, not even top 10 - at RB13 . Why? Because Brandon Jacobs had 147 rushing attempts himself... and 1 more rushing TD than Bradshaw did. And, as you already pointed out, that is THE high water mark over the past 6 seasons. If RB13 is Wilson's ceiling (which is already presuming an awful lot - like he's the unquestioned lead runner, makes it all 16 games, etc.) and you can trade him for someone who is already proven he will be a true RB1 (i.e. top 10) - than you should clearly "sell high".

Many of those who have been on this board for years (and some who oddly are touting Wilson in this thread) have seen countless "bell cow" RB threads - and countless RBBC threads. And the NY football Giants RBs have almost always appeared in the latter, not the former. Now, simply because some of you own Wilson, you have decided to look back at the stats through rose-colored (and with "on pace for" or "if you don't count injuries") glasses...instead of looking at the actual stats and what they have meant in terms of actual production.

In my leagues, when RBs miss games, I don't get any points for the carries they would have had if they weren't hurt. I also don't get the points for TDs that Jacobs scored while Bradshaw sipped Gatorade. And Wilson owners won't get points while Andre Brown is diving into the endzone on 3rd and 1 from the 1 - or whoever is the "Thunder" to Wilson's "lightning".

Could Wilson prove to be more talented and more productive than Bradshaw was in his prime? Sure. But if you can trade a player for someone who already IS what you hope Wilson will become eventually, if everything breaks just perfectly, than you should. Again, I am not saying dump the guy for a WR2 - but if you can get any of the top 10-12 RBs for him - even if you have to include a 2013 1st rounder - I couldn't hit accept fast enough.
Those of us high on David Wilson are not high on him because we think we might have found the next Ahmad Bradshaw. So no I don't agree that RB13 is Wilson's ceiling and it's trivial to me where Bradshaw ranked.

I'm not looking through anything with rose colored glasses. I'm looking at actual numbers per games played to get a guage on usage.

As for looking through things with rose colored glasses. That's when someone does something like trot out the Giants RB usage the last 6 years. That's a rose colored glasses BS argument and you know it and anyone trying to pull a stunt like that to argue the Giants run a RBBC knows it. Tom Coughlins been there a lot longer than 6 years and there's a reason the argument the Giants are a RBBC was framed as 6 year look back and not more.
What percent of those carries also went to quarterbacks, running backs that weren't in the RBBC, and wide receivers? Just because the first back only received 50 percent of the carries doesn't mean he is in a full blown RBBC if 20 percent of the carries went to the other people and the other back had 30 percent.

 
I think the recent RBBC is more due to fumbling issues Jacobs and Bradshaw had. Both spent time in Coughlin's doghouse for that. And both had issues with staying healthy. If it wasn't for his feet, Bradshaw wouldn't have shared nearly as much of the load the last few years.

The bigger factor is the Giants Oline. It hasn't run blocked well, despite last years stats indicating that they were in the middle of the pack.

 
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Coughlin is old school to begin with and doesn't trust rookies if he has a choice. The fumbles & pass protection only further reinforced his decision to delay him from getting significant carries. The good news is fumbles and pass protection are skills that can be improved upon. While I don't think Wilson has a ridiculous top gear, his explosion is rare (think first 10 yards) and for his weight he runs with power. From a Dynasty perspective, hes still 22 on a team who invested a 1st round pick and historically provides good if not great fantasy RB production. To hit the homeruns, there has got to be a certain level of risk you take, if his risk is lack of opportunities...im all over him.

 
At the same time they have a track record of RBBC
No they don't. See my post above.
Yes they do. I have been paying attention to Giants football for decades and Coughlin is still the coach. Not interested in a argument about semantics.
Don't let facts sway your opinions.
I won't when they are contrived to present something other than the truth.
I thought facts were the truth
You are not new here or I would offer you that excuse. As you can see from this thread there are many "facts" that can tell a one sided story. A lawyer uses selective facts as evidence discarding any facts that are inconvenient to their argument or does not support their case. Does that make it true? I call that distorting the truth with facts.

Lucky for you and everyone else you can read ALL of the information and draw your own conclusion about which facts are relevant or true.

Fwiw I thought Garda nailed the main point I was trying to make. It certainly does look like Wilson will get the opportunity to start. The Giants RB coach has said they want to let the young players play, even with increased risk to Eli I guess although I do expect them to add another veteran RB. From what I have read they could get Bradshaw back for vet minimum so I am not sure why they would sign anyone else when they would not have to pay Bradshaw any more than they would pay Hightower. That is unless Bradshaws injuries will prevent him from playing much.

I think Wilson has a tremendous opportunity. I just have not seen enough from him to be confident he can hold down the feature RB position. Even in college he only had one good season. I went back and watched some of his highlights from 2011 again. He goes off on Wake Forest but beyond that I didn't see much that impressed me. He played with more power in college than I have seen from him as a pro at this point. Perhaps 4-5 games into the season I will be singing a different tune. I just think people should use caution with how they value Wilson right now due to the uncertainty. Of course that uncertainty does drive the buy/sell at this time.

It is ridiculous that any of you are arguing that the Giants have not used a RBBC. They have. That is a fact. Does that mean that they will with Wilson? Not at all. But there is no denying that the Giants have that history and that is relevant to ones evaluation of Wilsons value moving forward.

 
As of now, I would rather have Wilson than any rookie running back for this season and in Dynasty.

What has Wilson been going for and been offered for in Dynasty?
Received him for Ivory/1.06/2014 2nd (Well before Goodson's recent issues)
Non PPR: About a month ago I was offered Sproles and two 2nd Round Rookie picks (early to mid round) for Wilson and I politely declined.

 
I think there is plenty of upside at RB12. 12 takes the "risk" into account quite nicely. It is still possible he drops off the radar in a year or two, and you do have to weigh that.

ON THE OTHER HAND, he is one of the few guys I can think of that has the talent and situation needed to become the #1/#2 overall fantasy property. He's 22, on a good team that scores a lot, and has explosiveness few can match. Just like there is the possibility his value could seriously drop over the next year or two, there is also the possibility it goes through the roof, and he becomes unattainable.

The critics are totally right on the body catching though. It would be nice if he'd look a little bit more like a receiver at times. But for catching dump offs, that's not as much of a requirement.

It all depends on where your team is. Pretty deep and looking for a home run? Wilson is your guy. Young team looking to rebuild, ditto at his current price. If you are on the cusp and looking for a really good dependable #2, then maybe invest somewhere else.

 
Fantasy football, especially dynasty, is a good test at how a person views and manages risk. David Wilson is currently a good gauge.

For those that have discussed Wilson being risky and that he has not shown much, I ask this - how do you, as an owner, build your dynasty teams? Are you one to acquire older RBs and stream them year-to-year for current production? Or draft rookies and hold them for a few years with a decent success rate? Something else?

Looking at the overall range of possible outcomes, the payoff of Wilson 'hitting' and becoming a 23-24 YO top-5 dynasty asset outweighs the 'risk' of him being a middling RBBC member for a few years then tailing off in value after that.

As an example, take Mark Ingram's value since coming into the dynasty landscape. Since being a top-3 rookie pick, he has largely disappointed, yet, entering year 3, he is still a top-100 pick in startups despite a known committee.

Another example: Knowshon Moreno. Largely unimpressive, but retained good value for 3-4 years.

1st round backs will retain their value longer because we known they will get a longer leash than other backs at a very fungible position.

Compared to Ingram in Year 2, Wilson is going about about three rounds higher, so even with a disappointing season in 2013, I would expect Wilson's ADP a year from now to be higher than Ingram's current status around 90-100.

Not comparing skill sets as all three are different players, but more how dynasty owners value first round backs in their early years in the NFL, even while producing lackluster statistics.

 
I would be trying to use Wilson as a stepping stone to an established stud like McCoy right now. If you can do something like Wilson + a mid-low 2013 first to get up to a McCoy/Spiller type, that seems like a good use of Wilson's speculative value.
This is where I find myself standing as well. His value is at a weird spot for me. I'd rather pay more for McCoy or a whole hell of a lot less for Gio Bernard, who will also get a shot to start. I don't think he's a bust, but his price is too high for my tastes.

 
Chad Parsons said:
For those that have discussed Wilson being risky and that he has not shown much, I ask this - how do you, as an owner, build your dynasty teams? Are you one to acquire older RBs and stream them year-to-year for current production? Or draft rookies and hold them for a few years with a decent success rate? Something else?

Looking at the overall range of possible outcomes, the payoff of Wilson 'hitting' and becoming a 23-24 YO top-5 dynasty asset outweighs the 'risk' of him being a middling RBBC member for a few years then tailing off in value after that.
I don't think it's this black and white. This argument could be made for any 23 YO player with upside; it doesn't mean they are all good bets. Plenty went all in on Beanie, Brown, Knowshon, Mathews, Ingram et cetera. And next year there is likely to be another David Wilson or two.

I don't like that Wilson's ADP has jumped due to a poor crop. His ADP spiked greatly after a season in which the sample size was small and the production up and down. He rose because guys like MJD, DMC, Demarco, and Forte fell' because the crop is getting older and this year didn't provide any top options.

So it's not simply a matter of liking Wilson or thinking he is a good bet. When cost is accoutned for - why is he worth more than 2 of this years top 4? Because that's what his price suggests. Gio is 21 and was only picked 5 spots later than Wilson. I like Gio or Lacy in the 4th/5th more than Wilson in the 2nd.

 
Since 2007, the Giants have always had a featured back who barring injury was going to get 270 carries or more.

The only exception was 2009 when they were transitioning from Jacobs to Bradshaw

Since 2007, 270 carries has always been top 12 and often inside of the 10 RBs in terms of carries.

So barring injury .. I think you can expect to see Wilson get 270 plus carries which with his talent and the Giant offense that should put him in the top 8 rbs

 
Chad Parsons said:
For those that have discussed Wilson being risky and that he has not shown much, I ask this - how do you, as an owner, build your dynasty teams? Are you one to acquire older RBs and stream them year-to-year for current production? Or draft rookies and hold them for a few years with a decent success rate? Something else?

Looking at the overall range of possible outcomes, the payoff of Wilson 'hitting' and becoming a 23-24 YO top-5 dynasty asset outweighs the 'risk' of him being a middling RBBC member for a few years then tailing off in value after that.
I don't think it's this black and white. This argument could be made for any 23 YO player with upside; it doesn't mean they are all good bets. Plenty went all in on Beanie, Brown, Knowshon, Mathews, Ingram et cetera. And next year there is likely to be another David Wilson or two.

I don't like that Wilson's ADP has jumped due to a poor crop. His ADP spiked greatly after a season in which the sample size was small and the production up and down. He rose because guys like MJD, DMC, Demarco, and Forte fell' because the crop is getting older and this year didn't provide any top options.

So it's not simply a matter of liking Wilson or thinking he is a good bet. When cost is accoutned for - why is he worth more than 2 of this years top 4? Because that's what his price suggests. Gio is 21 and was only picked 5 spots later than Wilson. I like Gio or Lacy in the 4th/5th more than Wilson in the 2nd.
His usage seemed to be fairly typical for a Giant rookie under TC. His production, on the other hand, was not typical... the kid set two NYG records - total yards for a rookie, and total yards in a game by anyone. That's pretty impressive, no matter how you slice it. I don't see any bust risk here, and see a ton to be excited about. Wilson is not Bradshaw - he's better.

I agree his value is very, very high. I basically traded him for Foster in one league (and held him in two others). I have a feeling that Wilson's value will be far higher than Fosters two seasons from now.

 
His usage seemed to be fairly typical for a Giant rookie under TC. His production, on the other hand, was not typical... the kid set two NYG records - total yards for a rookie, and total yards in a game by anyone. That's pretty impressive, no matter how you slice it. I don't see any bust risk here, and see a ton to be excited about. Wilson is not Bradshaw - he's better.

I agree his value is very, very high. I basically traded him for Foster in one league (and held him in two others). I have a feeling that Wilson's value will be far higher than Fosters two seasons from now.
I don't play in return yardage leagues, so that production doesn't mean much to me. His RB production was a tad less impressive than Andre Brown's.

Next year there will be another David Wilson, and the year after that, and the year after that. Just becuase we had a down RB crop doesn't mean we should value Wilson as though he's a lock - he's not. Again - I understand that there is a lot to like. But his price is double that of Gio Bernard who, again, is also 21 and was drafted within 5 picks of Wilson. Gio's getting a shot too. I just don't like his price point, with that context.

Brandon Marshall (or Cruz, or Harvin, etc) is being drafted around David Wilson, but Marshall just scored over 20 points a game and is likely to be close to that again. Give me Marshall and Gio/Lacy over Wilson and the WR you take in the 4th.

ETA: He'll be a trade target in my running leagues if he starts slow or has any dip in value. Just don't like the start-up price.

 
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As a Jets fan who is so used to seeing, in contrast to my own team, great talent evaluation skills, I am a buyer of Wilson. Giants' team brass doesn't always get it right, but more often than not, they do. I am going to trust them on their evaluation of Wilson and what he can do.

 
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Looking at his work in college, I think people forget that he had a rushing QB that took a lot of the rushing yards. And the FB vultured a bunch of TDs.

 
His usage seemed to be fairly typical for a Giant rookie under TC. His production, on the other hand, was not typical... the kid set two NYG records - total yards for a rookie, and total yards in a game by anyone. That's pretty impressive, no matter how you slice it. I don't see any bust risk here, and see a ton to be excited about. Wilson is not Bradshaw - he's better.

I agree his value is very, very high. I basically traded him for Foster in one league (and held him in two others). I have a feeling that Wilson's value will be far higher than Fosters two seasons from now.
I don't play in return yardage leagues, so that production doesn't mean much to me. His RB production was a tad less impressive than Andre Brown's.

Next year there will be another David Wilson, and the year after that, and the year after that. Just becuase we had a down RB crop doesn't mean we should value Wilson as though he's a lock - he's not. Again - I understand that there is a lot to like. But his price is double that of Gio Bernard who, again, is also 21 and was drafted within 5 picks of Wilson. Gio's getting a shot too. I just don't like his price point, with that context.

Brandon Marshall (or Cruz, or Harvin, etc) is being drafted around David Wilson, but Marshall just scored over 20 points a game and is likely to be close to that again. Give me Marshall and Gio/Lacy over Wilson and the WR you take in the 4th.

ETA: He'll be a trade target in my running leagues if he starts slow or has any dip in value. Just don't like the start-up price.
That isn't what I meant. I don't play in KR yardage leagues either. I realize most of those yards were KR yards. But, for some players, we can use KR as at least somewhat of a barometer for talent. He clearly has it. He's a first round RB who set records for the NYG in his rookie year (I don't care that KR was part of it - it's impressive regardless). There's a lot to be excited about. Measurables, draft pedigree (let's not ignore being a round 1 rb), little competition for the rb job (they let Bradshaw go), and talent that has turned up on the field, in a fairly large way.

The comparisons to Gio are meaningless, imho. One guy hasn't played a down in the NFL. The other set records for one of the league's oldest franchises in his rookie year. I think the 2nd round startup price is fair.

 

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