Is David Wilson a sell-high? (1 Viewer)

[TheFanatic]

His usage seemed to be fairly typical for a Giant rookie under TC. His production, on the other hand, was not typical... the kid set two NYG records - total yards for a rookie, and total yards in a game by anyone. That's pretty impressive, no matter how you slice it. I don't see any bust risk here, and see a ton to be excited about. Wilson is not Bradshaw - he's better.

I agree his value is very, very high. I basically traded him for Foster in one league (and held him in two others). I have a feeling that Wilson's value will be far higher than Fosters two seasons from now.

I don't play in return yardage leagues, so that production doesn't mean much to me. His RB production was a tad less impressive than Andre Brown's.

Next year there will be another David Wilson, and the year after that, and the year after that. Just becuase we had a down RB crop doesn't mean we should value Wilson as though he's a lock - he's not. Again - I understand that there is a lot to like. But his price is double that of Gio Bernard who, again, is also 21 and was drafted within 5 picks of Wilson. Gio's getting a shot too. I just don't like his price point, with that context.

Brandon Marshall (or Cruz, or Harvin, etc) is being drafted around David Wilson, but Marshall just scored over 20 points a game and is likely to be close to that again. Give me Marshall and Gio/Lacy over Wilson and the WR you take in the 4th.

ETA: He'll be a trade target in my running leagues if he starts slow or has any dip in value. Just don't like the start-up price.

That isn't what I meant. I don't play in KR yardage leagues either. I realize most of those yards were KR yards. But, for some players, we can use KR as at least somewhat of a barometer for talent. He clearly has it. He's a first round RB who set records for the NYG in his rookie year (I don't care that KR was part of it - it's impressive regardless). There's a lot to be excited about. Measurables, draft pedigree (let's not ignore being a round 1 rb), little competition for the rb job (they let Bradshaw go), and talent that has turned up on the field, in a fairly large way.

The comparisons to Gio are meaningless, imho. One guy hasn't played a down in the NFL. The other set records for one of the league's oldest franchises in his rookie year. I think the 2nd round startup price is fair.

I understood what you meant with the KR yards and I also don't get the comparisons between Wilson and a 3rd down back. Talk to me in week three of the pre season. Barring Inury, it will be Law Firm getting the carries into the 3rd quarter. Gio is a COP, not a bell cow...

 

[Concept Coop]

That isn't what I meant. I don't play in KR yardage leagues either. I realize most of those yards were KR yards. But, for some players, we can use KR as at least somewhat of a barometer for talent. He clearly has it. He's a first round RB who set records for the NYG in his rookie year (I don't care that KR was part of it - it's impressive regardless). There's a lot to be excited about. Measurables, draft pedigree (let's not ignore being a round 1 rb), little competition for the rb job (they let Bradshaw go), and talent that has turned up on the field, in a fairly large way.

The comparisons to Gio are meaningless, imho. One guy hasn't played a down in the NFL. The other set records for one of the league's oldest franchises in his rookie year. I think the 2nd round startup price is fair.

I think there is room for rational minds to disagree, and I think we just do. I personally don't care about what he does as a return man, and wouldn't call Brown little competition. I understand that there is a lot to be excited about and agree that the future is likely bright for him. I just disagree on price. A 2nd round startup pick is just too much for me. We'll see.

 

[Concept Coop]

I understood what you meant with the KR yards and I also don't get the comparisons between Wilson and a 3rd down back. Talk to me in week three of the pre season. Barring Inury, it will be Law Firm getting the carries into the 3rd quarter. Gio is a COP, not a bell cow...

Can we go back in time and talk? To last season when Wilson was the 3rd back on his team and not a bell cow?

 

[jwb]

That isn't what I meant. I don't play in KR yardage leagues either. I realize most of those yards were KR yards. But, for some players, we can use KR as at least somewhat of a barometer for talent. He clearly has it. He's a first round RB who set records for the NYG in his rookie year (I don't care that KR was part of it - it's impressive regardless). There's a lot to be excited about. Measurables, draft pedigree (let's not ignore being a round 1 rb), little competition for the rb job (they let Bradshaw go), and talent that has turned up on the field, in a fairly large way.

The comparisons to Gio are meaningless, imho. One guy hasn't played a down in the NFL. The other set records for one of the league's oldest franchises in his rookie year. I think the 2nd round startup price is fair.

I think there is room for rational minds to disagree, and I think we just do. I personally don't care about what he does as a return man, and wouldn't call Brown little competition. I understand that there is a lot to be excited about and agree that the future is likely bright for him. I just disagree on price. A 2nd round startup pick is just too much for me. We'll see.

I agree - at this point, it's just we disagree on his value (and probably not by much). I know if I was in a startup, I'd be very ok going, say, WR1/Wilson in 1/2. I don't see the risk that others see, I guess.

Would you pay round 3 in a startup? Or is it 4 or higher for you?

 

[Concept Coop]

I agree - at this point, it's just we disagree on his value (and probably not by much). I know if I was in a startup, I'd be very ok going, say, WR1/Wilson in 1/2. I don't see the risk that others see, I guess.

Would you pay round 3 in a startup? Or is it 4 or higher for you?

3 is getting a lot closer for me, and he'd certainly be an option at that point. In round 2 he's just too close to the elite guys and too far from the guys at the bottom of that tier. I'd rather - as Bloom said - pay extra for McCoy, or much less for other options. Round 3 is a good middle ground.

And we could certainly agree on his value outside of a startup draft. I really do wish the hype was a bit more controlled so I could target him more. Again, I do like the talent and the upside is vast. I just think that statement also applies to guys a bit cheaper than him.

 

[Horses Mouth]

what kind of trade value is he going for now in dynasty? Chris Johnson and David Wilson about equal now?

 

[Concept Coop]

what kind of trade value is he going for now in dynasty? Chris Johnson and David Wilson about equal now?

Based on recent startups, I'd say Wilson is at least a round ahead of CJ, ADP wise.

 

[ConnSKINS26]

what kind of trade value is he going for now in dynasty? Chris Johnson and David Wilson about equal now?

Not sure many Wilson owners would move him straight up for Chris Johnson, even if their window was closing. I know I'm not.I have no QB right now due to recent moves in a rebuild, and I recently rejected Murray + Romo for Wilson. Might reconsider a similar deal if I can't cheaply fill my QB hole.

 

[Chad Parsons]

Just to put some names to the price range we are discussing....

Latest DLF startup ADP for RBs within 10 picks of D.Wilson (from low to high, top to bottom):

Forte

A.Morris

Wilson

C.Johnson

Murray

McFadden

MJD

So between early 2nd and late 3rd, here are the names an owner would be staring at in a startup. Assuming RB is the pick, any glaring names that you would clearly take Wilson over? Clearly take over Wilson?

Other positional players in this range....

Gronk, Cobb, Crabtree, Fitzgerald, Cruz, Hernandez, Nicks.

 

[Concept Coop]

Just to put some names to the price range we are discussing....

Latest DLF startup ADP for RBs within 10 picks of D.Wilson (from low to high, top to bottom):

Forte

A.Morris

Wilson

C.Johnson

Murray

McFadden

MJD

So between early 2nd and late 3rd, here are the names an owner would be staring at in a startup. Assuming RB is the pick, any glaring names that you would clearly take Wilson over? Clearly take over Wilson?

Other positional players in this range....

Gronk, Cobb, Crabtree, Fitzgerald, Cruz, Hernandez, Nicks.

Gronk and Cruz are easy for me - Graham too if he was an option. I'd take Morris over him too, but it's close. Crabtree, Cobb, Fitz, and Nicks are all on the same tier. I would likely take him over the other RBs, however.

 

[jwb]

Just to put some names to the price range we are discussing....

Latest DLF startup ADP for RBs within 10 picks of D.Wilson (from low to high, top to bottom):

Forte

A.Morris

Wilson

C.Johnson

Murray

McFadden

MJD

So between early 2nd and late 3rd, here are the names an owner would be staring at in a startup. Assuming RB is the pick, any glaring names that you would clearly take Wilson over? Clearly take over Wilson?

Other positional players in this range....

Gronk, Cobb, Crabtree, Fitzgerald, Cruz, Hernandez, Nicks.

I don't take any of those RB's over Wilson in a startup. The second group of players is far more interesting.

 

[Sabertooth]

At the same time they have a track record of RBBC

No they don't. See my post above.

Yes they do. I have been paying attention to Giants football for decades and Coughlin is still the coach. Not interested in a argument about semantics.

Don't let facts sway your opinions.

I won't when they are contrived to present something other than the truth.

I guess it comes down to your definition of RBBC.

 

[TheFanatic]

I understood what you meant with the KR yards and I also don't get the comparisons between Wilson and a 3rd down back. Talk to me in week three of the pre season. Barring Inury, it will be Law Firm getting the carries into the 3rd quarter. Gio is a COP, not a bell cow...

Can we go back in time and talk? To last season when Wilson was the 3rd back on his team and not a bell cow?

If you don't know the difference between a 3rd down back and the 3rd back on the team, then you need a new hobby. David Wilson was never thought of as a COP back. There is a heavy debate as to how Gio will be used and I'm in the camp of COP.

 

[Concept Coop]

If you don't know the difference between a 3rd down back and the 3rd back on the team, then you need a new hobby. David Wilson was never thought of as a COP back. There is a heavy debate as to how Gio will be used and I'm in the camp of COP.

I didn't suggest that he was a 3rd down back, seeing as how he wasn't on the field in passing situations. Just pointing out that not getting "bell cow" carries by pre-season game #3 also applied to David Wilson.

 

[Biabreakable]

At the same time they have a track record of RBBC

No they don't. See my post above.

Yes they do. I have been paying attention to Giants football for decades and Coughlin is still the coach. Not interested in a argument about semantics.

Don't let facts sway your opinions.

I won't when they are contrived to present something other than the truth.

I guess it comes down to your definition of RBBC.

Exactly. If one does not define the Giants RB rotation over the past 20 years or so as a RBBC then you must not see any other team using one either.

The way I use that term is speaking to depth and draft philosophy in addition to RB rotation. I see the Giants goal being a distribution similar to what they did last season. with the lead RB(s) getting 160-270 carries with 2 other RB getting 40-160 carries. I am not sure who that 3rd RB is going to be right now. I am sure that the Giants are not going to start the season with only Ward available for depth behind Wilson.

Any of the other RB on the roster we should be keeping an eye on? I think Brown is a quality RB while healthy. But he has a running style that I think will continue to add risk of injury with him. Just do not see him staying healthy enough to be in the mix all season. There is likely 100 or so touches still unaccounted for. I have not seen Wilson do much in the passing game at all and I am not sure which RB will be getting most of those looks there (if one does).

Cutting Ahmad Bradshaw when they did just didn't make a lot of sense to me. Still doesn't. I expect him back or another suitable player taking his place in the rotation. For long term consideration, I see the Giants making an investment into the RB position either in the draft or free agency next season and Wilson needing to fight off competition for touches.

The Giants averaged 410 rushing attempts the last 2 seasons including Eli. The last time they had a RB over 250RA was in 2010 and they ran the ball 480 times that season. I think they need to hit that higher rushing attempt number for any of the RB to get feature RB touches. With the personel in place I am not seeing Wilson being proven enough to expect that high of a workload that will lead them to running the ball 70 more times in 2013 than they did on average the last 2 seasons. That would be the ceiling projection I think with the floor being 400RA.

 

[Sabertooth]

That's a lot of explaination and well thought out. But if David Wilson becomes Lesean McCoy or Ray Rice in his second year, it won't matter who they bring in. He'll be a RB1

 

[Concept Coop]

Any of the other RB on the roster we should be keeping an eye on? I think Brown is a quality RB while healthy. But he has a running style that I think will continue to add risk of injury with him. Just do not see him staying healthy enough to be in the mix all season. There is likely 100 or so touches still unaccounted for. I have not seen Wilson do much in the passing game at all and I am not sure which RB will be getting most of those looks there (if one does).

I keep hearing this, and it could very well be true, but what are we basing this on? I only see two freak injuries and a concussion while on the kick return team. Is there any reason to think he can't stay healthy beyond that?

 

[Dr. Octopus]

At the same time they have a track record of RBBC

No they don't. See my post above.

Yes they do. I have been paying attention to Giants football for decades and Coughlin is still the coach. Not interested in a argument about semantics.

Don't let facts sway your opinions.

I won't when they are contrived to present something other than the truth.

I guess it comes down to your definition of RBBC.

Exactly. If one does not define the Giants RB rotation over the past 20 years or so as a RBBC then you must not see any other team using one either.

The way I use that term is speaking to depth and draft philosophy in addition to RB rotation. I see the Giants goal being a distribution similar to what they did last season. with the lead RB(s) getting 160-270 carries with 2 other RB getting 40-160 carries. I am not sure who that 3rd RB is going to be right now. I am sure that the Giants are not going to start the season with only Ward available for depth behind Wilson.

Any of the other RB on the roster we should be keeping an eye on? I think Brown is a quality RB while healthy. But he has a running style that I think will continue to add risk of injury with him. Just do not see him staying healthy enough to be in the mix all season. There is likely 100 or so touches still unaccounted for. I have not seen Wilson do much in the passing game at all and I am not sure which RB will be getting most of those looks there (if one does).

Cutting Ahmad Bradshaw when they did just didn't make a lot of sense to me. Still doesn't. I expect him back or another suitable player taking his place in the rotation. For long term consideration, I see the Giants making an investment into the RB position either in the draft or free agency next season and Wilson needing to fight off competition for touches.

The Giants averaged 410 rushing attempts the last 2 seasons including Eli. The last time they had a RB over 250RA was in 2010 and they ran the ball 480 times that season. I think they need to hit that higher rushing attempt number for any of the RB to get feature RB touches. With the personel in place I am not seeing Wilson being proven enough to expect that high of a workload that will lead them to running the ball 70 more times in 2013 than they did on average the last 2 seasons. That would be the ceiling projection I think with the floor being 400RA.

Ryan Torrain and Da'Rell Scott (plus a seventh round raft pick) are the only other backs on the Giants' roster right now. Tim Hightower has visited recently. The team has specifically said that Bradshaw will not be back.

 

[TheFanatic]

If you don't know the difference between a 3rd down back and the 3rd back on the team, then you need a new hobby. David Wilson was never thought of as a COP back. There is a heavy debate as to how Gio will be used and I'm in the camp of COP.

I didn't suggest that he was a 3rd down back, seeing as how he wasn't on the field in passing situations. Just pointing out that not getting "bell cow" carries by pre-season game #3 also applied to David Wilson.

And how well did that turn out for Wilson in 2012?

 

[Concept Coop]

If you don't know the difference between a 3rd down back and the 3rd back on the team, then you need a new hobby. David Wilson was never thought of as a COP back. There is a heavy debate as to how Gio will be used and I'm in the camp of COP.

I didn't suggest that he was a 3rd down back, seeing as how he wasn't on the field in passing situations. Just pointing out that not getting "bell cow" carries by pre-season game #3 also applied to David Wilson.

And how well did that turn out for Wilson in 2012?

You've lost me.

 

[TheFanatic]

If you don't know the difference between a 3rd down back and the 3rd back on the team, then you need a new hobby. David Wilson was never thought of as a COP back. There is a heavy debate as to how Gio will be used and I'm in the camp of COP.

I didn't suggest that he was a 3rd down back, seeing as how he wasn't on the field in passing situations. Just pointing out that not getting "bell cow" carries by pre-season game #3 also applied to David Wilson.

And how well did that turn out for Wilson in 2012?

You've lost me.

He didn't get the carries in the 3rd preseason game and did not get the carries for the majority of the season. Just like I expect Gio to do on both accounts...

 

[HPD]

Biggest impediments for Wilson are pass protect and pass catching technique. He's too much of a body catcher and he needs to learn to extend his arms. He's not an awful protector, and I think he can develop a good punch and become stronger there. He exhibits rare burst and excellent lateral agility. He defeats angles easily in open space. Wilson is elusive but he can deliver a blow when needed. He finishes and has great YAC. In 2011 he led the country with 990 YAC, 207 more yards than Richardson.

I see the sell high argument, but he's a very nice stock to own unless you can get a top 6 RB without adding much.

 

[netnalp]

For long term consideration, I see the Giants making an investment into the RB position either in the draft or free agency next season and Wilson needing to fight off competition for touches.

Doubtful. The Giants are cap strapped and in the next few years will have to re-sign or replace FA that will command a high price like Nicks, Linval Joseph, JPP, Prince. Plus Tuck and Kiwanuka don't have many years left with the team. Webster and Rolle need to be replaced soon too. They'll be looking to reload those areas.

Certainly, they will draft more RBs but it's unlikely that they'd invest an early draft pick on a RB unless Wilson is a bust or there's a guy they just can't pass up. Most RBs they get int he draft will be later round guys that are going to mostly be depth. Brown is the one that they will probably look to next years draft to replace. Brown only has a 1 yr contract and is 27 so he probably isn't going to develop any further.

 

[Wyld Stallyns]

Before reading this thread I was of the opinion that he he was a bit overpriced. Now I think he's definitely priced accordingly... I just personally wouldn't want to pay it. But then, I tend to be more risk-averse than other owners.

 

[Eminence]

I'm starting to warm up on Wilson. He's going to hit homeruns. Uber explosive.

Wish he had more wiggle. He's prone to bounce off a tackle than juke someone out.

But with a high volume of carries, there's a lot of upside here. Giants line opens gaping holes and Wilson burns the safety.

Beautiful.

 

[Biabreakable]

For long term consideration, I see the Giants making an investment into the RB position either in the draft or free agency next season and Wilson needing to fight off competition for touches.

Doubtful. The Giants are cap strapped and in the next few years will have to re-sign or replace FA that will command a high price like Nicks, Linval Joseph, JPP, Prince. Plus Tuck and Kiwanuka don't have many years left with the team. Webster and Rolle need to be replaced soon too. They'll be looking to reload those areas.

Certainly, they will draft more RBs but it's unlikely that they'd invest an early draft pick on a RB unless Wilson is a bust or there's a guy they just can't pass up. Most RBs they get int he draft will be later round guys that are going to mostly be depth. Brown is the one that they will probably look to next years draft to replace. Brown only has a 1 yr contract and is 27 so he probably isn't going to develop any further.

Yes I realize they do have other needs. Perhaps it will just be a 4th round pick on a player like Jacobs Speaking of which I guess the Giants talked to him recently as well.http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap1000000158563/article/ny-giants-reportedly-open-to-brandon-jacobs-return I guess that will depend on how this season goes also. I just don't see enough quality depth, or not the same depth that I am used to seeing at the RB position on the Giants roster at this time. They need a 3rd guy unless both Wilson and Brown are healthy all season.

 

[Biabreakable]

Any of the other RB on the roster we should be keeping an eye on? I think Brown is a quality RB while healthy. But he has a running style that I think will continue to add risk of injury with him. Just do not see him staying healthy enough to be in the mix all season. There is likely 100 or so touches still unaccounted for. I have not seen Wilson do much in the passing game at all and I am not sure which RB will be getting most of those looks there (if one does).

I keep hearing this, and it could very well be true, but what are we basing this on? I only see two freak injuries and a concussion while on the kick return team. Is there any reason to think he can't stay healthy beyond that?

Well because he has been in the league for about 4 seasons now and he hasn't been healthy enough to play a significant role for very long in any of them. The best he has done so far is put together a couple games before he seems to get dinged up and not be available again for awhile.

I went back and watched the games where Brown played Tampa and the Panthers week 2 and 3. He is not a patient runner and outruns his blockers too soon. He seeks contact instead of trying to avoid it and the LBers were more than happy to oblige him. So the running style combined with the injury history does not have me feeling confident in Brown staying healthy in a major role for very many games.

 

[monk]

Any of the other RB on the roster we should be keeping an eye on? I think Brown is a quality RB while healthy. But he has a running style that I think will continue to add risk of injury with him. Just do not see him staying healthy enough to be in the mix all season. There is likely 100 or so touches still unaccounted for. I have not seen Wilson do much in the passing game at all and I am not sure which RB will be getting most of those looks there (if one does).

I keep hearing this, and it could very well be true, but what are we basing this on? I only see two freak injuries and a concussion while on the kick return team. Is there any reason to think he can't stay healthy beyond that?

I'm a huge Giant fan and I like Andre Brown but let's all be real here folks ... the guy is depth and some goal line carries and that's it.

Brown has been in the league for 3 seasons now and has a total of 385 yards rushing. Aside from his injury history the guy has been bounced around rosters like a beach ball for 4 years.

David Wilson is a 1st round pick with sick talent and impressed the hell out of everyone last year. The clear intention is for Wilson to be the starter and barring injury he will get at least 270 carries which will put him in the top 10 or 12 rbs in terms of carries and top 8 in terms of production.

Browns TRANSACTIONS:

Originally a 4th round (129th pick overall) draft choice by the Giants in 2009…Waived by the Giants on Sept. 4, 2010…Awarded off waivers to the Denver Broncos on Sept. 5, 2010…Waived by the Broncos on Sept. 15, 2010…Signed to the Broncos’ practice squad on Sept. 17, 2010…Signed to their active roster on Sept. 21, 2010…Waived by the Broncos on Oct. 16, 2010…Awarded off waivers to the Indianapolis Colts on Oct. 18, 2010...Waived by the Colts on Nov. 1, 2010…Signed to the Colts’ practice squad on Nov. 3, 2010 and to their active roster on Nov. 6…Waived by the Colts on Nov. 8, 2010…Awarded off waivers to the Carolina Panthers on Nov. 9, 2010…Waived by the Panthers on Nov. 16, 2010...Re-signed to the Broncos’ practice squad on Nov. 18, 2010…Signed by the Washington Redskins on Nov. 25, 2010…Waived by the Redskins on July 29, 2011…Signed by the Giants on Aug. 2, 2011…Waived by the Giants on Sept. 3, 2011…Signed to the Giants’ practice squad on Sept. 4, 2011…Signed to the Giants’ active roster on Feb. 8, 2012.

 

[Concept Coop]

The clear intention is for Wilson to be the starter and barring injury he will get at least 270 carries which will put him in the top 10 or 12 rbs in terms of carries and top 8 in terms of production.

I don't know this to be fact at all. The Giants like what they have in Brown and he produced well and played over Wilson last year. If they didn't like Brown they'd have replaced him or provided him with competition as a backup, even. The Giants like to use 2+ RBs, whether we want to call that a RBBC or not.

I think Wilson is very likely to have more production than Brown, especially towards the end of the season, at least. But I don't know that they have any roles set in stone right now. I personally don't think Wilson is a lock for top 10-12 carries and wouldn't be surprised if Brown lines up as the week 1 starter.

 

[Concept Coop]

Well because he has been in the league for about 4 seasons now and he hasn't been healthy enough to play a significant role for very long in any of them. The best he has done so far is put together a couple games before he seems to get dinged up and not be available again for awhile.

I went back and watched the games where Brown played Tampa and the Panthers week 2 and 3. He is not a patient runner and outruns his blockers too soon. He seeks contact instead of trying to avoid it and the LBers were more than happy to oblige him. So the running style combined with the injury history does not have me feeling confident in Brown staying healthy in a major role for very many games.

Because he has been waived doesn't mean he's been injured. I could certainly be missing some, but, again - I count 3 injuries, two of which took place last season.

 

[gianmarco]

Any of the other RB on the roster we should be keeping an eye on? I think Brown is a quality RB while healthy. But he has a running style that I think will continue to add risk of injury with him. Just do not see him staying healthy enough to be in the mix all season. There is likely 100 or so touches still unaccounted for. I have not seen Wilson do much in the passing game at all and I am not sure which RB will be getting most of those looks there (if one does).

I keep hearing this, and it could very well be true, but what are we basing this on? I only see two freak injuries and a concussion while on the kick return team. Is there any reason to think he can't stay healthy beyond that?

I'm a huge Giant fan and I like Andre Brown but let's all be real here folks ... the guy is depth and some goal line carries and that's it.

Brown has been in the league for 3 seasons now and has a total of 385 yards rushing. Aside from his injury history the guy has been bounced around rosters like a beach ball for 4 years.

David Wilson is a 1st round pick with sick talent and impressed the hell out of everyone last year. The clear intention is for Wilson to be the starter and barring injury he will get at least 270 carries which will put him in the top 10 or 12 rbs in terms of carries and top 8 in terms of production.

Browns TRANSACTIONS:

Originally a 4th round (129th pick overall) draft choice by the Giants in 2009…Waived by the Giants on Sept. 4, 2010…Awarded off waivers to the Denver Broncos on Sept. 5, 2010…Waived by the Broncos on Sept. 15, 2010…Signed to the Broncos’ practice squad on Sept. 17, 2010…Signed to their active roster on Sept. 21, 2010…Waived by the Broncos on Oct. 16, 2010…Awarded off waivers to the Indianapolis Colts on Oct. 18, 2010...Waived by the Colts on Nov. 1, 2010…Signed to the Colts’ practice squad on Nov. 3, 2010 and to their active roster on Nov. 6…Waived by the Colts on Nov. 8, 2010…Awarded off waivers to the Carolina Panthers on Nov. 9, 2010…Waived by the Panthers on Nov. 16, 2010...Re-signed to the Broncos’ practice squad on Nov. 18, 2010…Signed by the Washington Redskins on Nov. 25, 2010…Waived by the Redskins on July 29, 2011…Signed by the Giants on Aug. 2, 2011…Waived by the Giants on Sept. 3, 2011…Signed to the Giants’ practice squad on Sept. 4, 2011…Signed to the Giants’ active roster on Feb. 8, 2012.

Aside from being a huge Giant's fan:

 

[Concept Coop]

Aside from being a huge Giant's fan:

This we can agree on.

 

[matttyl]

The Hynocerous was carted off the field earlier today with a non-contact injury. Wilson may have just lost his lead blocker for the year.

 

[monk]

The Hynocerous was carted off the field earlier today with a non-contact injury. Wilson may have just lost his lead blocker for the year.

That would suck really bad

 

[Biabreakable]

Well because he has been in the league for about 4 seasons now and he hasn't been healthy enough to play a significant role for very long in any of them. The best he has done so far is put together a couple games before he seems to get dinged up and not be available again for awhile.

I went back and watched the games where Brown played Tampa and the Panthers week 2 and 3. He is not a patient runner and outruns his blockers too soon. He seeks contact instead of trying to avoid it and the LBers were more than happy to oblige him. So the running style combined with the injury history does not have me feeling confident in Brown staying healthy in a major role for very many games.

Because he has been waived doesn't mean he's been injured. I could certainly be missing some, but, again - I count 3 injuries, two of which took place last season.

http://www.kffl.com/player/20789/nfl/injury_history/andre-brown Not sure what happened to him in 2011. He is not listed with any injury in 2011 but he also did not get a single catch or carry that season, so was he injured? I dunno I just know he didn't do anything. I believe he had injuries in college as well but have not looked into that.

 

[gianmarco]

First stint with the GiantsBrown was drafted by the New York Giants in the fourth round (129th overall) of the 2009 NFL Draft. He suffered a ruptured Achilles tendon during training camp on August 14, which forced him to miss his rookie season. He was placed on injured reserve on September 1, 2009. Brown was waived by the Giants on September 4, 2010.[1]

Denver BroncosOn September 5, 2010, Brown was claimed off waivers by the Denver Broncos, waived on September 15, and then signed to the Broncos' practice squad on September 17, 2010. On September 21, 2010 Brown was signed to the active roster, and Lance Ball was waived.[2] Brown himself was waived on October 16, 2010. In four regular season games with the Broncos, Brown played in three but only amassed statistics in one (two rushes for a total of minus one yard in a 31-17 road loss to the Baltimore Ravens on October 10, 2010).[3]

Indianapolis ColtsBrown was claimed off waivers by the Indianapolis Colts on October 18, 2010. Brown was moved to the Colts active roster on November 6, 2010, then waived on November 9, 2010. Brown did not amass any statistics in his only game with the Colts, a 26-24 road loss to the Philadelphia Eagles on November 7, 2010.[3]

Carolina PanthersBrown was claimed off waivers by the Carolina Panthers on November 9, 2010, and then waived on November 16, 2010.[1] Brown did not play in his only game with the Panthers, a 31-16 road loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on November 14, 2010.[3]

Washington RedskinsOn November 24, 2010, Brown was signed by the Washington Redskins and added to their active roster.[4] He was released on July 28, 2011.[5]

Second stint with the GiantsOn August 3, 2011, Brown re-signed with the New York Giants.[6] He was waived on September 3, but re-signed the next day to the practice squad. On February 5, 2012, Brown and the Giants won Super Bowl 46 against the New England Patriots. After the game Brown became known for his celebratory song, "I got a ring", he and his teammates sang on the plane ride home and at the parade the following week.

In March of 2012, Brown was hit with a four-game suspension by the NFL for violating the league's substance abuse policy. [7] He later claimed it was a result of Adderall use [8] and eventually won an appeal, having his suspension lifted. [9]

On September 16, after starter Ahmad Bradshaw was knocked out of the game with a neck injury, Brown rushed for 71 yards on 13 carries, converting a two-point conversion and scoring the game-winning touchdown against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.[10]

On September 20 of 2012, Brown stepped in as the starter for the Giants against the Carolina Panthers on Thursday Night Football. Brown rushed for 113 yards on 20 carries, scoring two rushing touchdowns. He also had 3 receptions for 17 yards.

On November 25, he suffered a broken fibula in the fourth quarter on a Sunday Night Football game against the Green Bay Packers at MetLife Stadium, effectively ending his season. He ended the season, where he participated in 10 games, with 73 carries for 385 yards, with a 5.3 yard per carry average, after only 2 carries in the previous 3 seasons. He was eventually placed on injured reserve.[11]

Brown is just a guy. He'll have a role, but he's certainly not someone I'd be too worried about as a Wilson owner.

 

[ConnSKINS26]

Well because he has been in the league for about 4 seasons now and he hasn't been healthy enough to play a significant role for very long in any of them. The best he has done so far is put together a couple games before he seems to get dinged up and not be available again for awhile.

I went back and watched the games where Brown played Tampa and the Panthers week 2 and 3. He is not a patient runner and outruns his blockers too soon. He seeks contact instead of trying to avoid it and the LBers were more than happy to oblige him. So the running style combined with the injury history does not have me feeling confident in Brown staying healthy in a major role for very many games.

Because he has been waived doesn't mean he's been injured. I could certainly be missing some, but, again - I count 3 injuries, two of which took place last season.

http://www.kffl.com/player/20789/nfl/injury_history/andre-brown Not sure what happened to him in 2011. He is not listed with any injury in 2011 but he also did not get a single catch or carry that season, so was he injured? I dunno I just know he didn't do anything. I believe he had injuries in college as well but have not looked into that.

I'm pretty sure it took him a very long time to fully recover from the Achilles injury. Which is normal.

 

[DoubleG]

Brown is just a guy. He'll have a role, but he's certainly not someone I'd be too worried about as a Wilson owner.

Wilson's stats last year: 71 carries for 358 (5.0 YPC) - 4 TDs. Receiving 4/34/1

Brown's stats last year: 73 carries for 385 (5.3 YPC) - 8 TDs. Receving 12/86/0

I know for some Wilson owners, they claim they "eyeball test" is what gives Wilson the huge edge. Try using those eyeballs to look at the actual production. Again, I'm not saying Wilson wont have a good year - but if you can move him for a real RB1, I would think long and hard about it. As long as Brown's around, I think he eats into Wilson's production just enough to keep him an RB2. And tha's presuming Wilson stays healthy, doesn't put the ball on the ground, and is the leader of the RBBC.

 

[gianmarco]

Brown is just a guy. He'll have a role, but he's certainly not someone I'd be too worried about as a Wilson owner.

Wilson's stats last year: 71 carries for 358 (5.0 YPC) - 4 TDs. Receiving 4/34/1

Brown's stats last year: 73 carries for 385 (5.3 YPC) - 8 TDs. Receving 12/86/0

I know for some Wilson owners, they claim they "eyeball test" is what gives Wilson the huge edge. Try using those eyeballs to look at the actual production. Again, I'm not saying Wilson wont have a good year - but if you can move him for a real RB1, I would think long and hard about it. As long as Brown's around, I think he eats into Wilson's production just enough to keep him an RB2. And tha's presuming Wilson stays healthy, doesn't put the ball on the ground, and is the leader of the RBBC.

I know the numbers. Brown is just a guy.

In his 4 years in the NFL, he's been on 6 different teams. He's been stuck on practice squads. He has 75 career attempts in 4 years.

Again, Brown is just a guy and will never be more than that. He may show some stuff over short stretches but, aside from having a defined role as a secondary back or coming in due to injury (ironic, if it happens), he won't ever become the lead RB and hold it for any significant amount of time. A team will never make him the lead RB and keep him there. The list of guys like Samkon Gado or Marcel Reece is incredibly long and it's the kind of list that Andre Brown belongs on. If he were to land the lead role due to injury and excel with it, it will only be a short matter of time before he is replaced.

It's more than just the "eyeball test" (even though Wilson absolutely smokes him in that). Wilson is a 1st round draft pick. If you don't think that matters, pull up a list of 1st round RBs and you'll see a very common theme. Guys on that list are given the opportunity to succeed as the main RB almost without exception and relatively early on.

There is exactly ZERO chance that Brown takes the starting job from Wilson and keeps it away from him. I'm willing to lay down any kind of odds and coin on that. Wilson will be the starter week 1. If by some chance it's Brown at that point, by year's end, it will most assuredly not be. Brown will get some carries, he may get some goalline work, and if Wilson were to get hurt for some reason, he might even start a few games and get a good number of carries and do well with it. And that'll be it.

 

[Yenrub]

Any of the other RB on the roster we should be keeping an eye on? I think Brown is a quality RB while healthy. But he has a running style that I think will continue to add risk of injury with him. Just do not see him staying healthy enough to be in the mix all season. There is likely 100 or so touches still unaccounted for. I have not seen Wilson do much in the passing game at all and I am not sure which RB will be getting most of those looks there (if one does).

I keep hearing this, and it could very well be true, but what are we basing this on? I only see two freak injuries and a concussion while on the kick return team. Is there any reason to think he can't stay healthy beyond that?

I'm a huge Giant fan and I like Andre Brown but let's all be real here folks ... the guy is depth and some goal line carries and that's it.

Brown has been in the league for 3 seasons now and has a total of 385 yards rushing. Aside from his injury history the guy has been bounced around rosters like a beach ball for 4 years.

David Wilson is a 1st round pick with sick talent and impressed the hell out of everyone last year. The clear intention is for Wilson to be the starter and barring injury he will get at least 270 carries which will put him in the top 10 or 12 rbs in terms of carries and top 8 in terms of production.

Browns TRANSACTIONS:

Originally a 4th round (129th pick overall) draft choice by the Giants in 2009…Waived by the Giants on Sept. 4, 2010…Awarded off waivers to the Denver Broncos on Sept. 5, 2010…Waived by the Broncos on Sept. 15, 2010…Signed to the Broncos’ practice squad on Sept. 17, 2010…Signed to their active roster on Sept. 21, 2010…Waived by the Broncos on Oct. 16, 2010…Awarded off waivers to the Indianapolis Colts on Oct. 18, 2010...Waived by the Colts on Nov. 1, 2010…Signed to the Colts’ practice squad on Nov. 3, 2010 and to their active roster on Nov. 6…Waived by the Colts on Nov. 8, 2010…Awarded off waivers to the Carolina Panthers on Nov. 9, 2010…Waived by the Panthers on Nov. 16, 2010...Re-signed to the Broncos’ practice squad on Nov. 18, 2010…Signed by the Washington Redskins on Nov. 25, 2010…Waived by the Redskins on July 29, 2011…Signed by the Giants on Aug. 2, 2011…Waived by the Giants on Sept. 3, 2011…Signed to the Giants’ practice squad on Sept. 4, 2011…Signed to the Giants’ active roster on Feb. 8, 2012.

Aside from being a huge Giant's fan:

No it’s not a good posting

Looking at the number of times the guy got cut is simply ridiculous. The guy was trying to come back from the torn Achilles. The Giants like the kid’s talent and skill set. He has good size and speed and can catch the ball. Now his injury history is well documented going all the way back to college so I understand being weary of him staying healthy but he always had the talent.

 

[DoubleG]

Brown is just a guy. He'll have a role, but he's certainly not someone I'd be too worried about as a Wilson owner.

Wilson's stats last year: 71 carries for 358 (5.0 YPC) - 4 TDs. Receiving 4/34/1

Brown's stats last year: 73 carries for 385 (5.3 YPC) - 8 TDs. Receving 12/86/0

I know for some Wilson owners, they claim they "eyeball test" is what gives Wilson the huge edge. Try using those eyeballs to look at the actual production. Again, I'm not saying Wilson wont have a good year - but if you can move him for a real RB1, I would think long and hard about it. As long as Brown's around, I think he eats into Wilson's production just enough to keep him an RB2. And tha's presuming Wilson stays healthy, doesn't put the ball on the ground, and is the leader of the RBBC.

I know the numbers. Brown is just a guy.

In his 4 years in the NFL, he's been on 6 different teams. He's been stuck on practice squads. He has 75 career attempts in 4 years.

Again, Brown is just a guy and will never be more than that. He may show some stuff over short stretches but, aside from having a defined role as a secondary back or coming in due to injury (ironic, if it happens), he won't ever become the lead RB and hold it for any significant amount of time. A team will never make him the lead RB and keep him there. The list of guys like Samkon Gado or Marcel Reece is incredibly long and it's the kind of list that Andre Brown belongs on. If he were to land the lead role due to injury and excel with it, it will only be a short matter of time before he is replaced.

It's more than just the "eyeball test" (even though Wilson absolutely smokes him in that). Wilson is a 1st round draft pick. If you don't think that matters, pull up a list of 1st round RBs and you'll see a very common theme. Guys on that list are given the opportunity to succeed as the main RB almost without exception and relatively early on.

There is exactly ZERO chance that Brown takes the starting job from Wilson and keeps it away from him. I'm willing to lay down any kind of odds and coin on that. Wilson will be the starter week 1. If by some chance it's Brown at that point, by year's end, it will most assuredly not be. Brown will get some carries, he may get some goalline work, and if Wilson were to get hurt for some reason, he might even start a few games and get a good number of carries and do well with it. And that'll be it.

You don't even read the post your responding to, do you? At no point did I say Brwon was the starter, in fact, I pointed out quite the opposite - that Wilson will be the lead back - and that Brown still would likely eat into his carries enough to take him out of RB1 rankings.

Again, I am not suggesting (nor have I yet) that you should dump Wilson for nothing - or even another RB2. But if you can trade for an RB1, do it.

 

[Ernol]

Brown is just a guy. He'll have a role, but he's certainly not someone I'd be too worried about as a Wilson owner.

Wilson's stats last year: 71 carries for 358 (5.0 YPC) - 4 TDs. Receiving 4/34/1

Brown's stats last year: 73 carries for 385 (5.3 YPC) - 8 TDs. Receving 12/86/0

I know for some Wilson owners, they claim they "eyeball test" is what gives Wilson the huge edge. Try using those eyeballs to look at the actual production. Again, I'm not saying Wilson wont have a good year - but if you can move him for a real RB1, I would think long and hard about it. As long as Brown's around, I think he eats into Wilson's production just enough to keep him an RB2. And tha's presuming Wilson stays healthy, doesn't put the ball on the ground, and is the leader of the RBBC.

I know the numbers. Brown is just a guy.

In his 4 years in the NFL, he's been on 6 different teams. He's been stuck on practice squads. He has 75 career attempts in 4 years.

Again, Brown is just a guy and will never be more than that. He may show some stuff over short stretches but, aside from having a defined role as a secondary back or coming in due to injury (ironic, if it happens), he won't ever become the lead RB and hold it for any significant amount of time. A team will never make him the lead RB and keep him there. The list of guys like Samkon Gado or Marcel Reece is incredibly long and it's the kind of list that Andre Brown belongs on. If he were to land the lead role due to injury and excel with it, it will only be a short matter of time before he is replaced.

It's more than just the "eyeball test" (even though Wilson absolutely smokes him in that). Wilson is a 1st round draft pick. If you don't think that matters, pull up a list of 1st round RBs and you'll see a very common theme. Guys on that list are given the opportunity to succeed as the main RB almost without exception and relatively early on.

There is exactly ZERO chance that Brown takes the starting job from Wilson and keeps it away from him. I'm willing to lay down any kind of odds and coin on that. Wilson will be the starter week 1. If by some chance it's Brown at that point, by year's end, it will most assuredly not be. Brown will get some carries, he may get some goalline work, and if Wilson were to get hurt for some reason, he might even start a few games and get a good number of carries and do well with it. And that'll be it.

You don't even read the post your responding to, do you? At no point did I say Brwon was the starter, in fact, I pointed out quite the opposite - that Wilson will be the lead back - and that Brown still would likely eat into his carries enough to take him out of RB1 rankings.

Again, I am not suggesting (nor have I yet) that you should dump Wilson for nothing - or even another RB2. But if you can trade for an RB1, do it.

This view, imo, is a short term one. You already assume that Wilson will be the lead back and yet are dissuaded from ranking him as an RB1 in dynasty due to the effect Brown may have to his 2013 numbers. Wilson is young, very young, and a timeshare for a year may be what the Giants have planned (then again, it may not). But unless you think that a timeshare will continue indefinitely, and there’s nothing that tells me that Brown has the talent to keep Wilson in a timeshare for too long, any effect Brown will have on Wilson’s numbers should not have a substantial effect on Wilson’s value in dynasty.

I’m not concerned about Brown in the least, nor was I concerned about Bradshaw before he got cut, but not because they won’t eat into Wilson’s production in 2013. Brown just might do that (and Bradshaw would have as well had he not gotten cut). I am not concerned about Brown (or Bradshaw before him) because 2013 doesn’t matter all that much in the grand scheme of Wilson's dynasty value as long as Wilson has a decent year. RB2 numbers in 2013 will vault Wilson, in most eyes, into the top 5 on its own. Next year, who would you rank ahead of a 23 year old Wilson if he produces as an RB2 in 2013. A 28 year old Arian Foster (ick)? A 29 year old Adrian Peterson?

Wilson has a window of 2-3 years to produce as an RB1. If he does so in any of the next 2-3 years (which I think he will), at the age of 24 or 25, his value will be at top 3 RB (where Spiller is now, only higher due to being younger) and potentially #1.

 

[Ernol]

I would be trying to use Wilson as a stepping stone to an established stud like McCoy right now. If you can do something like Wilson + a mid-low 2013 first to get up to a McCoy/Spiller type, that seems like a good use of Wilson's speculative value.

This is not bad, if you think McCoy himself is “safe”. However, I don’t view McCoy as being any safer than Wilson. For one, he is one more concussion away from a significant dip in value. Injuries are unpredictable, but having the concussion issue looming over a player makes me feel unsafe.

More importantly, while McCoy is among the younger of the elite or semi-elite RB crowd, Wilson is 3 years younger than McCoy with his value on the rise. McCoy has already experienced his peak in value as a RB (when he was once considered top 4 overall in dynasty), and he should now be more properly valued as an early 2nd in a startup imo.

David Wilson can put up modest numbers in a semi-timeshare in 2013 and STILL see his value increase to where McCoy’s perceived value is now. If McCoy puts up those same modest numbers, his value is sure to decrease in a big way. Too many factors can result in McCoy losing value (including the mere passing of time), while little has to occur for Wilson’s to go up. In that sense, I believe Wilson to be the safer dynasty asset than McCoy right now. Add a mid 1st to Wilson, and it’s a slam dunk trade.

Those cashing in on Wilson at this time, at a RB10-ish value, will regret it later imo.

 

[DoubleG]

Brown is just a guy. He'll have a role, but he's certainly not someone I'd be too worried about as a Wilson owner.

Wilson's stats last year: 71 carries for 358 (5.0 YPC) - 4 TDs. Receiving 4/34/1

Brown's stats last year: 73 carries for 385 (5.3 YPC) - 8 TDs. Receving 12/86/0

I know for some Wilson owners, they claim they "eyeball test" is what gives Wilson the huge edge. Try using those eyeballs to look at the actual production. Again, I'm not saying Wilson wont have a good year - but if you can move him for a real RB1, I would think long and hard about it. As long as Brown's around, I think he eats into Wilson's production just enough to keep him an RB2. And tha's presuming Wilson stays healthy, doesn't put the ball on the ground, and is the leader of the RBBC.

I know the numbers. Brown is just a guy.

In his 4 years in the NFL, he's been on 6 different teams. He's been stuck on practice squads. He has 75 career attempts in 4 years.

Again, Brown is just a guy and will never be more than that. He may show some stuff over short stretches but, aside from having a defined role as a secondary back or coming in due to injury (ironic, if it happens), he won't ever become the lead RB and hold it for any significant amount of time. A team will never make him the lead RB and keep him there. The list of guys like Samkon Gado or Marcel Reece is incredibly long and it's the kind of list that Andre Brown belongs on. If he were to land the lead role due to injury and excel with it, it will only be a short matter of time before he is replaced.

It's more than just the "eyeball test" (even though Wilson absolutely smokes him in that). Wilson is a 1st round draft pick. If you don't think that matters, pull up a list of 1st round RBs and you'll see a very common theme. Guys on that list are given the opportunity to succeed as the main RB almost without exception and relatively early on.

There is exactly ZERO chance that Brown takes the starting job from Wilson and keeps it away from him. I'm willing to lay down any kind of odds and coin on that. Wilson will be the starter week 1. If by some chance it's Brown at that point, by year's end, it will most assuredly not be. Brown will get some carries, he may get some goalline work, and if Wilson were to get hurt for some reason, he might even start a few games and get a good number of carries and do well with it. And that'll be it.

You don't even read the post your responding to, do you? At no point did I say Brwon was the starter, in fact, I pointed out quite the opposite - that Wilson will be the lead back - and that Brown still would likely eat into his carries enough to take him out of RB1 rankings.

Again, I am not suggesting (nor have I yet) that you should dump Wilson for nothing - or even another RB2. But if you can trade for an RB1, do it.

This view, imo, is a short term one. You already assume that Wilson will be the lead back and yet are dissuaded from ranking him as an RB1 in dynasty due to the effect Brown may have to his 2013 numbers. Wilson is young, very young, and a timeshare for a year may be what the Giants have planned (then again, it may not). But unless you think that a timeshare will continue indefinitely, and there’s nothing that tells me that Brown has the talent to keep Wilson in a timeshare for too long, any effect Brown will have on Wilson’s numbers should not have a substantial effect on Wilson’s value in dynasty.

I’m not concerned about Brown in the least, nor was I concerned about Bradshaw before he got cut, but not because they won’t eat into Wilson’s production in 2013. Brown just might do that (and Bradshaw would have as well had he not gotten cut). I am not concerned about Brown (or Bradshaw before him) because 2013 doesn’t matter all that much in the grand scheme of Wilson's dynasty value as long as Wilson has a decent year. RB2 numbers in 2013 will vault Wilson, in most eyes, into the top 5 on its own. Next year, who would you rank ahead of a 23 year old Wilson if he produces as an RB2 in 2013. A 28 year old Arian Foster (ick)? A 29 year old Adrian Peterson?

Wilson has a window of 2-3 years to produce as an RB1. If he does so in any of the next 2-3 years (which I think he will), at the age of 24 or 25, his value will be at top 3 RB (where Spiller is now, only higher due to being younger) and potentially #1.

The Giants have used RBBC for at least the last 6-7 years. And I don't suppose we can stop comparing Wilson to Spiller?

Spiller was the 9th overall pick and the 1st RB off the board in 2010. Wilson was the 32nd overall pick (meaning every team in the league passed on him until the Giants) - and the 3rd RB taken. Now, I realize it's tough to compare draft classes (even though many touting Wilson are doing that), but here are some other (Non-Spiller) 1st round RBs of recent vintage - just so we don't assume that first round RBs are automatic HOF players:

2011: Mark Ingram

2010: Ryan Matthews and Jahvid Best (Best was the 3rd RB taken and taken 30th overall - a similar spot to Wilson)

2009: Knowshon Moreno, Donald Brown AND Beanie Wells - a bumper crop there!

2008: Jonathtan Stewart, Felix Jones and Rashard Mendenhall (AND STOP!! We found one!!! Mendy was a top 5...oops, no RB8...well close enough...one time....)

But hey, feel free to keep drinking the "he was drafted in the first round, the Giants will suddenly stop running RBBC, A. Brown aint a threat to take carries" kool-aid. But keep in mind, that was ALL the 1st round backs (not just the 3rd RB taken).

 

[Ernol]

But hey, feel free to keep drinking the "he was drafted in the first round, the Giants will suddenly stop running RBBC, A. Brown aint a threat to take carries" kool-aid. But keep in mind, that was ALL the 1st round backs (not just the 3rd RB taken).

I didn't focus on any of those things in my post (in fact recognizing that Brown may in fact take carries away from Wilson in 2013) nor did I even mention his 1st round draft slot, so I think you have me confused with someone else.

As for my comparisons of Wilson to CJ Spiller, perhaps I am quick to make that comparison because the things I am saying now were the same things I said about Spiller in the past. For example, here is what I said in response to a poster indicating that in valuing Spiller so highly, people were not putting enough emphasis that FJax was still named the starter in 2012 even after Spiller's very good 6-game stretch in 2011.

I said:

"If people are not placing enough emphasis that FJax was the starter (he was at one time the top RB in 2011 after all), then they are making that mistake only in a redraft context, not dynasty. For dynasty, whether the Bills coaches elect to go committee when FJax returns is of little consequence to me in ranking Spiller in the top 5. Sooner or later (Fjax is getting long in the tooth), Spiller WILL take over as the unquestioned #1. The short term uncertainty is what presents the potential buying opportunity. Once Spiller becomes the unquestioned #1, he will join the group of nearly untradeables."

Replace Spiller and FJax then with Wilson and Brown now, an it is almost exactly what I am saying now about Wilson:

If people are not placing enough emphasis that Brown may take away carries from Wilson (he was last year very productive as well), then they are making that mistake only in a redraft context, not dynasty. For dynasty, whether the Giants coaches elect to go committee with Wilson/Brown is of little consequence to me in ranking Wilson in the top 5. Sooner or later, Wilson WILL take over as the unquestioned #1. The short term uncertainty is what presents the potential buying opportunity. Once Wilson becomes the unquestioned #1, he will join the group of nearly untradeables.

 

[msudaisy26]

Brown is just a guy. He'll have a role, but he's certainly not someone I'd be too worried about as a Wilson owner.

Wilson's stats last year: 71 carries for 358 (5.0 YPC) - 4 TDs. Receiving 4/34/1

Brown's stats last year: 73 carries for 385 (5.3 YPC) - 8 TDs. Receving 12/86/0

I know for some Wilson owners, they claim they "eyeball test" is what gives Wilson the huge edge. Try using those eyeballs to look at the actual production. Again, I'm not saying Wilson wont have a good year - but if you can move him for a real RB1, I would think long and hard about it. As long as Brown's around, I think he eats into Wilson's production just enough to keep him an RB2. And tha's presuming Wilson stays healthy, doesn't put the ball on the ground, and is the leader of the RBBC.

I know the numbers. Brown is just a guy.

In his 4 years in the NFL, he's been on 6 different teams. He's been stuck on practice squads. He has 75 career attempts in 4 years.

Again, Brown is just a guy and will never be more than that. He may show some stuff over short stretches but, aside from having a defined role as a secondary back or coming in due to injury (ironic, if it happens), he won't ever become the lead RB and hold it for any significant amount of time. A team will never make him the lead RB and keep him there. The list of guys like Samkon Gado or Marcel Reece is incredibly long and it's the kind of list that Andre Brown belongs on. If he were to land the lead role due to injury and excel with it, it will only be a short matter of time before he is replaced.

It's more than just the "eyeball test" (even though Wilson absolutely smokes him in that). Wilson is a 1st round draft pick. If you don't think that matters, pull up a list of 1st round RBs and you'll see a very common theme. Guys on that list are given the opportunity to succeed as the main RB almost without exception and relatively early on.

There is exactly ZERO chance that Brown takes the starting job from Wilson and keeps it away from him. I'm willing to lay down any kind of odds and coin on that. Wilson will be the starter week 1. If by some chance it's Brown at that point, by year's end, it will most assuredly not be. Brown will get some carries, he may get some goalline work, and if Wilson were to get hurt for some reason, he might even start a few games and get a good number of carries and do well with it. And that'll be it.

You don't even read the post your responding to, do you? At no point did I say Brwon was the starter, in fact, I pointed out quite the opposite - that Wilson will be the lead back - and that Brown still would likely eat into his carries enough to take him out of RB1 rankings.

Again, I am not suggesting (nor have I yet) that you should dump Wilson for nothing - or even another RB2. But if you can trade for an RB1, do it.

This view, imo, is a short term one. You already assume that Wilson will be the lead back and yet are dissuaded from ranking him as an RB1 in dynasty due to the effect Brown may have to his 2013 numbers. Wilson is young, very young, and a timeshare for a year may be what the Giants have planned (then again, it may not). But unless you think that a timeshare will continue indefinitely, and there’s nothing that tells me that Brown has the talent to keep Wilson in a timeshare for too long, any effect Brown will have on Wilson’s numbers should not have a substantial effect on Wilson’s value in dynasty.

I’m not concerned about Brown in the least, nor was I concerned about Bradshaw before he got cut, but not because they won’t eat into Wilson’s production in 2013. Brown just might do that (and Bradshaw would have as well had he not gotten cut). I am not concerned about Brown (or Bradshaw before him) because 2013 doesn’t matter all that much in the grand scheme of Wilson's dynasty value as long as Wilson has a decent year. RB2 numbers in 2013 will vault Wilson, in most eyes, into the top 5 on its own. Next year, who would you rank ahead of a 23 year old Wilson if he produces as an RB2 in 2013. A 28 year old Arian Foster (ick)? A 29 year old Adrian Peterson?

Wilson has a window of 2-3 years to produce as an RB1. If he does so in any of the next 2-3 years (which I think he will), at the age of 24 or 25, his value will be at top 3 RB (where Spiller is now, only higher due to being younger) and potentially #1.

The Giants have used RBBC for at least the last 6-7 years. And I don't suppose we can stop comparing Wilson to Spiller?

Spiller was the 9th overall pick and the 1st RB off the board in 2010. Wilson was the 32nd overall pick (meaning every team in the league passed on him until the Giants) - and the 3rd RB taken. Now, I realize it's tough to compare draft classes (even though many touting Wilson are doing that), but here are some other (Non-Spiller) 1st round RBs of recent vintage - just so we don't assume that first round RBs are automatic HOF players:

2011: Mark Ingram

2010: Ryan Matthews and Jahvid Best (Best was the 3rd RB taken and taken 30th overall - a similar spot to Wilson)

2009: Knowshon Moreno, Donald Brown AND Beanie Wells - a bumper crop there!

2008: Jonathtan Stewart, Felix Jones and Rashard Mendenhall (AND STOP!! We found one!!! Mendy was a top 5...oops, no RB8...well close enough...one time....)

But hey, feel free to keep drinking the "he was drafted in the first round, the Giants will suddenly stop running RBBC, A. Brown aint a threat to take carries" kool-aid. But keep in mind, that was ALL the 1st round backs (not just the 3rd RB taken).

Why do you leave off some of the backs that go against your point? Or fail to mention the other 2 backs taken in the first round the same year as Wilson, and compare him with Best who was a huge injury risk before he played in the NFL, but was very productive fantasy wise when he was on the field.

 

[Sabertooth]

Back to the original question "is David Wilson a sell high?"I I don't think he is. He hasn't really had an opportunity to start yet. He does now. There is a chance he flops but I don't see anything to indicate that is likely. The team has not given indications that they are displeased with him. He has high draft pedigree and nobody scratched their head when the pick was made. He has elite burst and speed. He is a powerful runner but not a punisher. He is still very young and plays for one of the best run organizations in the game.

I think he is a lock for a 1400 combined season within the next two years. I would think that alone would drive his value north of where it is today. He may not be a rb1 right now but if he pulls off a nice year his value will increase. He is more talented and has less injury risk than Bradshaw. I think he finishes somewhere in the top 15 within the next two seasons.

 

[gianmarco]

Brown is just a guy. He'll have a role, but he's certainly not someone I'd be too worried about as a Wilson owner.

Wilson's stats last year: 71 carries for 358 (5.0 YPC) - 4 TDs. Receiving 4/34/1

Brown's stats last year: 73 carries for 385 (5.3 YPC) - 8 TDs. Receving 12/86/0

I know for some Wilson owners, they claim they "eyeball test" is what gives Wilson the huge edge. Try using those eyeballs to look at the actual production. Again, I'm not saying Wilson wont have a good year - but if you can move him for a real RB1, I would think long and hard about it. As long as Brown's around, I think he eats into Wilson's production just enough to keep him an RB2. And tha's presuming Wilson stays healthy, doesn't put the ball on the ground, and is the leader of the RBBC.

I know the numbers. Brown is just a guy.

In his 4 years in the NFL, he's been on 6 different teams. He's been stuck on practice squads. He has 75 career attempts in 4 years.

Again, Brown is just a guy and will never be more than that. He may show some stuff over short stretches but, aside from having a defined role as a secondary back or coming in due to injury (ironic, if it happens), he won't ever become the lead RB and hold it for any significant amount of time. A team will never make him the lead RB and keep him there. The list of guys like Samkon Gado or Marcel Reece is incredibly long and it's the kind of list that Andre Brown belongs on. If he were to land the lead role due to injury and excel with it, it will only be a short matter of time before he is replaced.

It's more than just the "eyeball test" (even though Wilson absolutely smokes him in that). Wilson is a 1st round draft pick. If you don't think that matters, pull up a list of 1st round RBs and you'll see a very common theme. Guys on that list are given the opportunity to succeed as the main RB almost without exception and relatively early on.

There is exactly ZERO chance that Brown takes the starting job from Wilson and keeps it away from him. I'm willing to lay down any kind of odds and coin on that. Wilson will be the starter week 1. If by some chance it's Brown at that point, by year's end, it will most assuredly not be. Brown will get some carries, he may get some goalline work, and if Wilson were to get hurt for some reason, he might even start a few games and get a good number of carries and do well with it. And that'll be it.

You don't even read the post your responding to, do you? At no point did I say Brwon was the starter, in fact, I pointed out quite the opposite - that Wilson will be the lead back - and that Brown still would likely eat into his carries enough to take him out of RB1 rankings.

Again, I am not suggesting (nor have I yet) that you should dump Wilson for nothing - or even another RB2. But if you can trade for an RB1, do it.

This view, imo, is a short term one. You already assume that Wilson will be the lead back and yet are dissuaded from ranking him as an RB1 in dynasty due to the effect Brown may have to his 2013 numbers. Wilson is young, very young, and a timeshare for a year may be what the Giants have planned (then again, it may not). But unless you think that a timeshare will continue indefinitely, and there’s nothing that tells me that Brown has the talent to keep Wilson in a timeshare for too long, any effect Brown will have on Wilson’s numbers should not have a substantial effect on Wilson’s value in dynasty.

I’m not concerned about Brown in the least, nor was I concerned about Bradshaw before he got cut, but not because they won’t eat into Wilson’s production in 2013. Brown just might do that (and Bradshaw would have as well had he not gotten cut). I am not concerned about Brown (or Bradshaw before him) because 2013 doesn’t matter all that much in the grand scheme of Wilson's dynasty value as long as Wilson has a decent year. RB2 numbers in 2013 will vault Wilson, in most eyes, into the top 5 on its own. Next year, who would you rank ahead of a 23 year old Wilson if he produces as an RB2 in 2013. A 28 year old Arian Foster (ick)? A 29 year old Adrian Peterson?

Wilson has a window of 2-3 years to produce as an RB1. If he does so in any of the next 2-3 years (which I think he will), at the age of 24 or 25, his value will be at top 3 RB (where Spiller is now, only higher due to being younger) and potentially #1.

Couldn't have said this any better. And this is why I responded to that post stating that Brown is "just a guy". His impact on Wilson will be short-term and short-lived if it even amounts to anything significant.

 

[DoubleG]

The Giants have used RBBC for at least the last 6-7 years. And I don't suppose we can stop comparing Wilson to Spiller?

Spiller was the 9th overall pick and the 1st RB off the board in 2010. Wilson was the 32nd overall pick (meaning every team in the league passed on him until the Giants) - and the 3rd RB taken. Now, I realize it's tough to compare draft classes (even though many touting Wilson are doing that), but here are some other (Non-Spiller) 1st round RBs of recent vintage - just so we don't assume that first round RBs are automatic HOF players:

2011: Mark Ingram

2010: Ryan Matthews and Jahvid Best (Best was the 3rd RB taken and taken 30th overall - a similar spot to Wilson)

2009: Knowshon Moreno, Donald Brown AND Beanie Wells - a bumper crop there!

2008: Jonathtan Stewart, Felix Jones and Rashard Mendenhall (AND STOP!! We found one!!! Mendy was a top 5...oops, no RB8...well close enough...one time....)

But hey, feel free to keep drinking the "he was drafted in the first round, the Giants will suddenly stop running RBBC, A. Brown aint a threat to take carries" kool-aid. But keep in mind, that was ALL the 1st round backs (not just the 3rd RB taken).

Why do you leave off some of the backs that go against your point? Or fail to mention the other 2 backs taken in the first round the same year as Wilson, and compare him with Best who was a huge injury risk before he played in the NFL, but was very productive fantasy wise when he was on the field.

The only back I left off was Spiller - whom I was trying to point is not the only comparison. The other two taken earlier in the same draft (Richardson and Martin) is a silly comparison...of course they're better - that's why they were taken before him. And honestly, the odds that all 3 backs going in the first round last year are going to "grow up" to be studs are fairly slim - as such, arguing that Richardson and Martin are strong RB1s actually makes it more unlikely that Wilson will be too...not less.

Incidentally injury risk IS a possible reason Wilson would not live up to high expectations - that is the case with virtually every RB, but moreso with young RBs who haven't proven they can sustain productivity over the grind of a 16 game NFL season. There are times in dynasty where you overpay for potential at the risk of production. In Wilson's case, I am simply suggesting that it might be better to cash in on potential and instead find someone that has already proven production at the NFL level on a consistant basis...especially if you can trade potential RB1 for actual RB1.

There are owners seemingly convinced beyond reasonable doubt that Wilson is the next Spiller or (insert name of any RB1 here) - I am simply suggesting that it is equally (at least) possible that he is the next Knowshon Moreno, Donald Brown, Jonathan Stewart, Mark Ingram or Felix Jones - all guys that had similar hype surrounding them as rookies and 2nd year players. Some of you disagree - and that's fine. I am merely trying to point out why I would rather bet that he is not the next top 5 RB for years to come, rather that he is.

 

[Phenix]

No insight really, just the truth and this is not opinion here, lol...

The love for a Giants RB that was in the Dog House most last year needs to stop. He couldn't beat out Andre Brown last year, he will not do it this year either. He is nothing special as he had one good game, AGAINST THE SAINTS PUTRID DEFENSE. He benefited from injuries in front of him. What about the 2 carries for 4 yard game, or 3 carries for 6 yard game, or the 1 carry for 1 yard game, or the 4 for 9, or 6 for 13, or 1 for -2.

LMFAO, I am laughing at everyone who assumes Wilson is a stud. I saw him moved for ADP yesterday. WTF? You kidding me. What has he done, or what will he do in an offense that has a better RB in Brown, who by the way scored 8 tds on 73 carries last year, and that has always used a RBBC.

Do you research and let go of the FBG koolaid, this is laughable and not to many see it.