Is David Wilson a sell-high? (1 Viewer)

[Dr. Octopus]

the odds that all 3 backs going in the first round last year are going to "grow up" to be studs are fairly slim - as such, arguing that Richardson and Martin are strong RB1s actually makes it more unlikely that Wilson will be too...not less.

What?

 

[Sabertooth]

No insight really, just the truth and this is not opinion here, lol...

The love for a Giants RB that was in the Dog House most last year needs to stop. He couldn't beat out Andre Brown last year, he will not do it this year either. He is nothing special as he had one good game, AGAINST THE SAINTS PUTRID DEFENSE. He benefited from injuries in front of him. What about the 2 carries for 4 yard game, or 3 carries for 6 yard game, or the 1 carry for 1 yard game, or the 4 for 9, or 6 for 13, or 1 for -2.

LMFAO, I am laughing at everyone who assumes Wilson is a stud. I saw him moved for ADP yesterday. WTF? You kidding me. What has he done, or what will he do in an offense that has a better RB in Brown, who by the way scored 8 tds on 73 carries last year, and that has always used a RBBC.

Do you research and let go of the FBG koolaid, this is laughable and not to many see it.

Brown is 26 years old and has a total of 75 career carries. David Wilson is 21 years old and has a total of 56 career carries. What about those facts makes you think Brown has any kind of edge? He has less than 1 game's worth of full time carries logged more than Wilson does. Wilson may be unproven but I'd say Andre Brown is probably more unproven. Sure he had 8 touchdowns last season but it took him 4 years to log his third NFL carry. It is amazing that he's even still in the NFL.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

No insight really, just the truth and this is not opinion here, lol...

The love for a Giants RB that was in the Dog House most last year needs to stop. He couldn't beat out Andre Brown last year, he will not do it this year either. He is nothing special as he had one good game, AGAINST THE SAINTS PUTRID DEFENSE. He benefited from injuries in front of him. What about the 2 carries for 4 yard game, or 3 carries for 6 yard game, or the 1 carry for 1 yard game, or the 4 for 9, or 6 for 13, or 1 for -2.

LMFAO, I am laughing at everyone who assumes Wilson is a stud. I saw him moved for ADP yesterday. WTF? You kidding me. What has he done, or what will he do in an offense that has a better RB in Brown, who by the way scored 8 tds on 73 carries last year, and that has always used a RBBC.

Do you research and let go of the FBG koolaid, this is laughable and not to many see it.

Brown is 26 years old and has a total of 75 career carries. David Wilson is 21 years old and has a total of 56 career carries. What about those facts makes you think Brown has any kind of edge? He has less than 1 games worth of full time carries logged than Wilson does. Sheesh.

and if you want to disparage Wilson because he exploded againts the Saints, you may want to check out what most backs did against Carolina (the team than Brown exploded against).

 

[gianmarco]

No insight really, just the truth and this is not opinion here, lol...

The love for a Giants RB that was in the Dog House most last year needs to stop. He couldn't beat out Andre Brown last year, he will not do it this year either. He is nothing special as he had one good game, AGAINST THE SAINTS PUTRID DEFENSE. He benefited from injuries in front of him. What about the 2 carries for 4 yard game, or 3 carries for 6 yard game, or the 1 carry for 1 yard game, or the 4 for 9, or 6 for 13, or 1 for -2.

LMFAO, I am laughing at everyone who assumes Wilson is a stud. I saw him moved for ADP yesterday. WTF? You kidding me. What has he done, or what will he do in an offense that has a better RB in Brown, who by the way scored 8 tds on 73 carries last year, and that has always used a RBBC.

Do you research and let go of the FBG koolaid, this is laughable and not to many see it.

Brown is 26 years old and has a total of 75 career carries. David Wilson is 21 years old and has a total of 56 career carries. What about those facts makes you think Brown has any kind of edge? He has less than 1 games worth of full time carries logged than Wilson does. Sheesh.

Actually, Wilson has 71 career carries.

 

[Phenix]

No insight really, just the truth and this is not opinion here, lol...

The love for a Giants RB that was in the Dog House most last year needs to stop. He couldn't beat out Andre Brown last year, he will not do it this year either. He is nothing special as he had one good game, AGAINST THE SAINTS PUTRID DEFENSE. He benefited from injuries in front of him. What about the 2 carries for 4 yard game, or 3 carries for 6 yard game, or the 1 carry for 1 yard game, or the 4 for 9, or 6 for 13, or 1 for -2.

LMFAO, I am laughing at everyone who assumes Wilson is a stud. I saw him moved for ADP yesterday. WTF? You kidding me. What has he done, or what will he do in an offense that has a better RB in Brown, who by the way scored 8 tds on 73 carries last year, and that has always used a RBBC.

Do you research and let go of the FBG koolaid, this is laughable and not to many see it.

Brown is 26 years old and has a total of 75 career carries. David Wilson is 21 years old and has a total of 56 career carries. What about those facts makes you think Brown has any kind of edge? He has less than 1 games worth of full time carries logged than Wilson does. Sheesh.

Dude hasnt had the opportunity as he was not a high draft pick.

What part of Brown is better, his stat line of last year shows that, do you not get? Sheesh.

Not everyone cares about age in dynasty, trades and moves can be made to adjust. People put to much weight into age.

Oh and he has more fumbles then Brown too, not to mention you got Wilsons carries wrong, its 71! Remember coaches do not care about fantasy, its a full Blown RBBC.

 

[Concept Coop]

This is not bad, if you think McCoy himself is “safe”. However, I don’t view McCoy as being any safer than Wilson. For one, he is one more concussion away from a significant dip in value. Injuries are unpredictable, but having the concussion issue looming over a player makes me feel unsafe.

More importantly, while McCoy is among the younger of the elite or semi-elite RB crowd, Wilson is 3 years younger than McCoy with his value on the rise. McCoy has already experienced his peak in value as a RB (when he was once considered top 4 overall in dynasty), and he should now be more properly valued as an early 2nd in a startup imo.

David Wilson can put up modest numbers in a semi-timeshare in 2013 and STILL see his value increase to where McCoy’s perceived value is now. If McCoy puts up those same modest numbers, his value is sure to decrease in a big way. Too many factors can result in McCoy losing value (including the mere passing of time), while little has to occur for Wilson’s to go up. In that sense, I believe Wilson to be the safer dynasty asset than McCoy right now. Add a mid 1st to Wilson, and it’s a slam dunk trade.

Those cashing in on Wilson at this time, at a RB10-ish value, will regret it later imo.

McCoy did it an at NFL level - a huge question mark has been answered. He has two top 3 seasons in PPR formats, and is still very young. He's had one concussion and it wasn't Collie/Best level.

If Wilson is more valuable because he is 3 years younger, then you'll always be playing catch-up. By the time he has production close to McCoy's, it's time to sell him again for the next flashy 21 year old drafted in the first round.

Wilson's value went up for reasons beyond him answering questions - it went up because this rookie crop was weak, and it went up because Spiller blew up and people are now going to look for the next version of him. There might not be another Spiller in the league right now, or over the next 3-4 years, even.

Wilson is not safer than McCoy - at all. He hasn't proven to be a productive NFL RB yet, with any kind of workload. That the most important question a RB prospect can answer - McCoy answered it. In taking Wilson over McCoy - you're doing so to have an andvantage in 4-5 years time. I wouldn't call that safe.

 

[ducktales]

This is not bad, if you think McCoy himself is “safe”. However, I don’t view McCoy as being any safer than Wilson. For one, he is one more concussion away from a significant dip in value. Injuries are unpredictable, but having the concussion issue looming over a player makes me feel unsafe.

More importantly, while McCoy is among the younger of the elite or semi-elite RB crowd, Wilson is 3 years younger than McCoy with his value on the rise. McCoy has already experienced his peak in value as a RB (when he was once considered top 4 overall in dynasty), and he should now be more properly valued as an early 2nd in a startup imo.

David Wilson can put up modest numbers in a semi-timeshare in 2013 and STILL see his value increase to where McCoy’s perceived value is now. If McCoy puts up those same modest numbers, his value is sure to decrease in a big way. Too many factors can result in McCoy losing value (including the mere passing of time), while little has to occur for Wilson’s to go up. In that sense, I believe Wilson to be the safer dynasty asset than McCoy right now. Add a mid 1st to Wilson, and it’s a slam dunk trade.

Those cashing in on Wilson at this time, at a RB10-ish value, will regret it later imo.

Wilson is not safer than McCoy - at all. He hasn't proven to be a productive NFL RB yet, with any kind of workload. That the most important question a RB prospect can answer - McCoy answered it. In taking Wilson over McCoy - you're doing so to have an andvantage in 4-5 years time. I wouldn't call that safe.

McCoy hasn't proven to be a productive NFL RB for an entire season without vick, correct? Vick could be one concussion away from retirement, correct? Vick's QB replacement isn't proven for the majority of a season to be productive with McCoy, or any RB. Wilson isn't proven to be productive with Eli manning, but plenty of other RBs are, and being wilson showed flashes of excellence last year, and the fact that he is a 1st round pick makes me think he will be productive as well.

So both sides aren't safe, at this point, but its clear they both have huge upside. The question is, whats more of a risk to you, Vick getting injured and having unknown possibilities with his backup QB, or if wilson is able to start and succeed with Eli manning like so many other RBs have done in the past.

I would say since Vick's future is very bleak that Wilson is the safer option at this point.

 

[Concept Coop]

McCoy hasn't proven to be a productive NFL RB for an entire season without vick, correct? Vick could be one concussion away from retirement, correct? Vick's QB replacement isn't proven for the majority of a season to be productive with McCoy, or any RB. Wilson isn't proven to be productive with Eli manning, but plenty of other RBs are, and being wilson showed flashes of excellence last year, and the fact that he is a 1st round pick makes me think he will be productive as well.

So both sides aren't safe, at this point, but its clear they both have huge upside. The question is, whats more of a risk to you, Vick getting injured and having unknown possibilities with his backup QB, or if wilson is able to start and succeed with Eli manning like so many other RBs have done in the past.

I would say since Vick's future is very bleak that Wilson is the safer option at this point.

Have you looked at McCoy's stats without Vick? That should answer your question. McCoy is one of the best and most productive RBs in the NFL. We don't know if Wilson can be what McCoy IS. That's the biggest question a guy needs to answer; one of them has.

 

[Sabertooth]

No insight really, just the truth and this is not opinion here, lol...

The love for a Giants RB that was in the Dog House most last year needs to stop. He couldn't beat out Andre Brown last year, he will not do it this year either. He is nothing special as he had one good game, AGAINST THE SAINTS PUTRID DEFENSE. He benefited from injuries in front of him. What about the 2 carries for 4 yard game, or 3 carries for 6 yard game, or the 1 carry for 1 yard game, or the 4 for 9, or 6 for 13, or 1 for -2.

LMFAO, I am laughing at everyone who assumes Wilson is a stud. I saw him moved for ADP yesterday. WTF? You kidding me. What has he done, or what will he do in an offense that has a better RB in Brown, who by the way scored 8 tds on 73 carries last year, and that has always used a RBBC.

Do you research and let go of the FBG koolaid, this is laughable and not to many see it.

Brown is 26 years old and has a total of 75 career carries. David Wilson is 21 years old and has a total of 56 career carries. What about those facts makes you think Brown has any kind of edge? He has less than 1 games worth of full time carries logged than Wilson does. Sheesh.

Dude hasnt had the opportunity as he was not a high draft pick.

What part of Brown is better, his stat line of last year shows that, do you not get? Sheesh.

Not everyone cares about age in dynasty, trades and moves can be made to adjust. People put to much weight into age.

Oh and he has more fumbles then Brown too, not to mention you got Wilsons carries wrong, its 71! Remember coaches do not care about fantasy, its a full Blown RBBC.

Ok guy. We get it, you are a Brown owner.

 

[ducktales]

McCoy hasn't proven to be a productive NFL RB for an entire season without vick, correct? Vick could be one concussion away from retirement, correct? Vick's QB replacement isn't proven for the majority of a season to be productive with McCoy, or any RB. Wilson isn't proven to be productive with Eli manning, but plenty of other RBs are, and being wilson showed flashes of excellence last year, and the fact that he is a 1st round pick makes me think he will be productive as well.

So both sides aren't safe, at this point, but its clear they both have huge upside. The question is, whats more of a risk to you, Vick getting injured and having unknown possibilities with his backup QB, or if wilson is able to start and succeed with Eli manning like so many other RBs have done in the past.

I would say since Vick's future is very bleak that Wilson is the safer option at this point.

Have you looked at McCoy's stats without Vick? That should answer your question. McCoy is one of the best and most productive RBs in the NFL. We don't know if Wilson can be what McCoy IS. That's the biggest question a guy needs to answer; one of them has.

Oh, if we can use small samples of how McCoy played without Vick, then we should be able to use the small sample of Wilson succeeding with Eli, look what wilson did week 14 last year.

 

[Concept Coop]

Oh, if we can use small samples of how McCoy played without Vick, then we should be able to use the small sample of Wilson succeeding with Eli, look what wilson did week 14 last year.

I have no concern about McCoy without Vick. I personally don't udnerstand why anyone would. But, you're right, the sample size is only (I'm guessing) 7-8 games. But it's worth pointing out that he caught more balls when Vick was on the sideline.

 

[ducktales]

Oh, if we can use small samples of how McCoy played without Vick, then we should be able to use the small sample of Wilson succeeding with Eli, look what wilson did week 14 last year.

I have no concern about McCoy without Vick. I personally don't udnerstand why anyone would. But, you're right, the sample size is only (I'm guessing) 7-8 games. But it's worth pointing out that he caught more balls when Vick was on the sideline.

I have no concern about Wilson with Eli. I personally don't understand why anyone would.

 

[Sabertooth]

Oh, if we can use small samples of how McCoy played without Vick, then we should be able to use the small sample of Wilson succeeding with Eli, look what wilson did week 14 last year.

I have no concern about McCoy without Vick. I personally don't udnerstand why anyone would. But, you're right, the sample size is only (I'm guessing) 7-8 games. But it's worth pointing out that he caught more balls when Vick was on the sideline.

Is your name Concept Coop (koop) or Concept Coop (co-op)?

 

[Concept Coop]

Is your name Concept Coop (koop) or Concept Coop (co-op)?

Ha ha. Coop (koop), based on the last name (I think every Cooper in history had the nickname Coop in school). Concept based on a drunken rant years and years ago in which - not that I remember - I kept going on an no about a concept I had. Kind of stuck among my circle of friends.

 

[Concept Coop]

I have no concern about Wilson with Eli. I personally don't understand why anyone would.

I agree. If Wilson's the read deal it won't matter. If he's the real deal Andre Brown won't matter either.

 

[gianmarco]

This is not bad, if you think McCoy himself is “safe”. However, I don’t view McCoy as being any safer than Wilson. For one, he is one more concussion away from a significant dip in value. Injuries are unpredictable, but having the concussion issue looming over a player makes me feel unsafe.

More importantly, while McCoy is among the younger of the elite or semi-elite RB crowd, Wilson is 3 years younger than McCoy with his value on the rise. McCoy has already experienced his peak in value as a RB (when he was once considered top 4 overall in dynasty), and he should now be more properly valued as an early 2nd in a startup imo.

David Wilson can put up modest numbers in a semi-timeshare in 2013 and STILL see his value increase to where McCoy’s perceived value is now. If McCoy puts up those same modest numbers, his value is sure to decrease in a big way. Too many factors can result in McCoy losing value (including the mere passing of time), while little has to occur for Wilson’s to go up. In that sense, I believe Wilson to be the safer dynasty asset than McCoy right now. Add a mid 1st to Wilson, and it’s a slam dunk trade.

Those cashing in on Wilson at this time, at a RB10-ish value, will regret it later imo.

McCoy did it an at NFL level - a huge question mark has been answered. He has two top 3 seasons in PPR formats, and is still very young. He's had one concussion and it wasn't Collie/Best level.

If Wilson is more valuable because he is 3 years younger, then you'll always be playing catch-up. By the time he has production close to McCoy's, it's time to sell him again for the next flashy 21 year old drafted in the first round.

Wilson's value went up for reasons beyond him answering questions - it went up because this rookie crop was weak, and it went up because Spiller blew up and people are now going to look for the next version of him. There might not be another Spiller in the league right now, or over the next 3-4 years, even.

Wilson is not safer than McCoy - at all. He hasn't proven to be a productive NFL RB yet, with any kind of workload. That the most important question a RB prospect can answer - McCoy answered it. In taking Wilson over McCoy - you're doing so to have an andvantage in 4-5 years time. I wouldn't call that safe.

The consensus for those of you saying to sell Wilson for a "proven" RB1 is because Wilson isn't "safe" or because he carries "risk". The same thing keeps coming up over and over. "But what if he's like Moreno or Ingram or D. Brown".

If you're looking at just the names and context, then sure, I can understand why you might be worried. Sure, he could be another in the line of RBs to bust. "Move him for someone that Wilson hopes to become". These types of statements just indicate that you need to actually see him do it for an extended period of time before you'll believe it.

Well, there's nothing wrong with that if you aren't comfortable with what you see. If you're afraid of risk, then sure, sell Wilson now by adding to him to get your proven guy. But for those of you asking why some of us won't do that--the answer is because I don't need to see him to do that to know what he is. It's the same reason I didn't need to see Spiller do it to know what he was capable of. It's not just a matter of pimping any young RB that has a chance to start. I wasn't going nuts trying to get Moreno in every league I owned. Same with Ingram. There's a reason I bought Spiller everywhere I could and held, patiently waiting.

Some of you may not see the difference between an unproven Wilson and some of those other busts. To me and some others, that difference is clear as day and is the explanation for why the Wilson hype is so "out of control". Could I (and others) be wrong about him? Sure, it's possible. But I'm quite comfortable in what I've seen from him that he won't be a bust and his ascension into EVERYONE's top 5 will be happening sooner rather than later.

You didn't have to see AP run in the NFL to know he was going to be a stud. Same thing with Calvin. When Julio and AJG were coming in, you didn't need to do much convincing that they would become elite guys eventually even before they showed anything at the next level. For some of us, Wilson is just another in line with those guys that has the goods and it's not necessary to watch him do it for a full year before I come to that conclusion. If you wait until then, he'll be untouchable.

For those of you that don't see ir or just want to cash in early on your investment and go the safe route, then sell Wilson for low RB1 value or add to him to get McCoy or Peterson. Me, I'll take those guys and buy Wilson now and get some free stuff added in. In no time, I'm pretty comfortable saying he'll join that elite RB group at the top. As Ernol pointed out above, THAT is the similarity between Spiller and Wilson. The talent is pretty obvious, IMO, in both cases and this is before they actually "prove it". And FWIW, no, I'm not selling Spiller now for the next young RB. So it's not just a matter of waiting until he hits the promised land and then moving him for the next young toy.

 

[Concept Coop]

The consensus for those of you saying to sell Wilson for a "proven" RB1 is because Wilson isn't "safe" or because he carries "risk". The same thing keeps coming up over and over. "But what if he's like Moreno or Ingram or D. Brown".

If you're looking at just the names and context, then sure, I can understand why you might be worried. Sure, he could be another in the line of RBs to bust. "Move him for someone that Wilson hopes to become". These types of statements just indicate that you need to actually see him do it for an extended period of time before you'll believe it.

Well, there's nothing wrong with that if you aren't comfortable with what you see. If you're afraid of risk, then sure, sell Wilson now by adding to him to get your proven guy. But for those of you asking why some of us won't do that--the answer is because I don't need to see him to do that to know what he is. It's the same reason I didn't need to see Spiller do it to know what he was capable of. It's not just a matter of pimping any young RB that has a chance to start. I wasn't going nuts trying to get Moreno in every league I owned. Same with Ingram. There's a reason I bought Spiller everywhere I could and held, patiently waiting.

Some of you may not see the difference between an unproven Wilson and some of those other busts. To me and some others, that difference is clear as day and is the explanation for why the Wilson hype is so "out of control". Could I (and others) be wrong about him? Sure, it's possible. But I'm quite comfortable in what I've seen from him that he won't be a bust and his ascension into EVERYONE's top 5 will be happening sooner rather than later.

You didn't have to see AP run in the NFL to know he was going to be a stud. Same thing with Calvin. When Julio and AJG were coming in, you didn't need to do much convincing that they would become elite guys eventually even before they showed anything at the next level. For some of us, Wilson is just another in line with those guys that has the goods and it's not necessary to watch him do it for a full year before I come to that conclusion. If you wait until then, he'll be untouchable.

For those of you that don't see ir or just want to cash in early on your investment and go the safe route, then sell Wilson for low RB1 value or add to him to get McCoy or Peterson. Me, I'll take those guys and buy Wilson now and get some free stuff added in. In no time, I'm pretty comfortable saying he'll join that elite RB group at the top. As Ernol pointed out above, THAT is the similarity between Spiller and Wilson. The talent is pretty obvious, IMO, in both cases and this is before they actually "prove it". And FWIW, no, I'm not selling Spiller now for the next young RB. So it's not just a matter of waiting until he hits the promised land and then moving him for the next young toy.

I can respect that. A few years ago I took McCoy #1 in a startup and was laughed at. Peterson and CJ2K were the ADP options. I was laughed at again when I traded McCoy and Brady for Julio and Newton - both rookies at the time. I understand calling your shot and going all in on it, to a degree.

Here's what I don't understand - and this is an honest question and not rhetorical - where did you rank him last year? I don't understand how he goes from 5th round startup pick to 2nd round startup pick, based on 71 carries, most of the productive ones coming against poor defenses at the end of the season. If there were 2 or 3 1st round RBs in this last class who ran a 4.4, Wilson wouldn't be as unique in his youth and potential. It's going to happen next year, though, and likely the year after.

 

[Sabertooth]

I owned Wilson in two leagues. I packaged him with Sam Bradford in one league for Trent Richardson. I am holding him and counting on him as my RB2 in front of Jonathan Stewart and Daryl Richardson in the other. So I kind of diversified on him a little bit but I still want to hang onto him too. So I am hopefully having my cake and eating it too.

 

[gianmarco]

The consensus for those of you saying to sell Wilson for a "proven" RB1 is because Wilson isn't "safe" or because he carries "risk". The same thing keeps coming up over and over. "But what if he's like Moreno or Ingram or D. Brown". If you're looking at just the names and context, then sure, I can understand why you might be worried. Sure, he could be another in the line of RBs to bust. "Move him for someone that Wilson hopes to become". These types of statements just indicate that you need to actually see him do it for an extended period of time before you'll believe it. Well, there's nothing wrong with that if you aren't comfortable with what you see. If you're afraid of risk, then sure, sell Wilson now by adding to him to get your proven guy. But for those of you asking why some of us won't do that--the answer is because I don't need to see him to do that to know what he is. It's the same reason I didn't need to see Spiller do it to know what he was capable of. It's not just a matter of pimping any young RB that has a chance to start. I wasn't going nuts trying to get Moreno in every league I owned. Same with Ingram. There's a reason I bought Spiller everywhere I could and held, patiently waiting. Some of you may not see the difference between an unproven Wilson and some of those other busts. To me and some others, that difference is clear as day and is the explanation for why the Wilson hype is so "out of control". Could I (and others) be wrong about him? Sure, it's possible. But I'm quite comfortable in what I've seen from him that he won't be a bust and his ascension into EVERYONE's top 5 will be happening sooner rather than later. You didn't have to see AP run in the NFL to know he was going to be a stud. Same thing with Calvin. When Julio and AJG were coming in, you didn't need to do much convincing that they would become elite guys eventually even before they showed anything at the next level. For some of us, Wilson is just another in line with those guys that has the goods and it's not necessary to watch him do it for a full year before I come to that conclusion. If you wait until then, he'll be untouchable. For those of you that don't see ir or just want to cash in early on your investment and go the safe route, then sell Wilson for low RB1 value or add to him to get McCoy or Peterson. Me, I'll take those guys and buy Wilson now and get some free stuff added in. In no time, I'm pretty comfortable saying he'll join that elite RB group at the top. As Ernol pointed out above, THAT is the similarity between Spiller and Wilson. The talent is pretty obvious, IMO, in both cases and this is before they actually "prove it". And FWIW, no, I'm not selling Spiller now for the next young RB. So it's not just a matter of waiting until he hits the promised land and then moving him for the next young toy.

I can respect that. A few years ago I took McCoy #1 in a startup and was laughed at. Peterson and CJ2K were the ADP options. I was laughed at again when I traded McCoy and Brady for Julio and Newton - both rookies at the time. I understand calling your shot and going all in on it, to a degree. Here's what I don't understand - and this is an honest question and not rhetorical - where did you rank him last year? I don't understand how he goes from 5th round startup pick to 2nd round startup pick, based on 71 carries, most of the productive ones coming against poor defenses at the end of the season. If there were 2 or 3 1st round RBs in this last class who ran a 4.4, Wilson wouldn't be as unique in his youth and potential. It's going to happen next year, though, and likely the year after.

In the leagues that I'm in, there's a few players that seem to end up on most of my rosters. These are guys that I value far more than others and try to buy up when I can. As I don't often keep my rookie picks in leagues, it ends up being a situation where I have to trade for a guy after the fact. Wilson was going in the top 6-7 picks last year, and with rookie fever, it often costs more to obtain. The fact that he only had 71 carries and had to sit for most of the year was a Godsend. I saw this because I don't think I get most of those deals below if he played any significant amount of time. Even still, they held strong and I ended up having to pay a "premium". I put that in quotes because I overpaid by market value but still feel I underpaid overall. Here's a summary of a few leagues where I have him and how I got him: 1. Had the 1.2 and moved it for the 1.4/1.6. If I had kept the 1.2, I was taking Wilson. I moved down knowing I could get him at 1.4, which I did and then added Luck at 1.6.2. In a dev league, he was already rostered. I was lucky to make a move shortly afterward of S. Hill (with the hype) and Housler (1.5 ppr for TE league) for Wilson. This owner regrets the decision now but there were reasons for the trade at the time. In other leagues, the Wilson owners were particularly high on him (as they should be) and wouldn't move throughout the year. I kept trying over and over with above market offers and was repeatedly declined. As the year wore on, I realized that I needed to just pay and get it done because it was going to be too late if I didn't. 1) Moved Morris/Flacco for Wilson. This was after the season but was pretty easy to do.2) Moved the 1.1 this year in January straight up for him. Again, pretty easy to do.3) Moved Foster/Tate for Wilson/Bradshaw in January. This is one I know 98% of people will just shake their heads at. This is what it took to get him and wasn't an issue at all for me.4) Moved Harvin for Wilson/Jeffery. This was easily the hardest one for me as Harvin is a flat out stud. This is more of a gamble on Jeffery than it is the others. I wouldn't otherwise move Harvin for him, but I feel the gamble on Jeffery's upside made this worth it. This was more of a "push" for me with Jeffery's upside offsetting the risk of Wilson's value being lower than Harvin.5) Moved Calvin/Nicks for Julio/Wilson. This was another no-brainer for me as it combined 2 trades that I'd make. Calvin = Julio to me, but all things being equal, I'll actually take Julio at this point (discussed this elsewhere already and can link if you'd like). Moving Nicks for Wilson is easy. The funny thing is I ended up trading Wilson in this league to get DT a bit afterward so I'm not averse to moving him (even though I miss him already on that roster).6) In a league co-owned with someone else, we moved the sure thing of Ray Rice for DT/Wilson at the beginning of last year during the summer. We got roasted for that trade at the time. This was my co-owners idea but I had no problem with the move whatsoever. So to answer your question, I won't say I specifically had Wilson in my top 5 at the start of the year. But as things played themselves out, it became pretty evident that I felt more and more comfortable putting him up there and could still buy at lower prices. It didn't take much at the next level to confirm what I saw and just helped reinforce that I was making the right call. You wonder how only 71 carries could vault him up there. The simple answer is probably this: He was there all along for me and I just didn't realize it. Those 71 carries were more than enough to allow me to stick with what I thought.

 

[Ernol]

This is not bad, if you think McCoy himself is “safe”. However, I don’t view McCoy as being any safer than Wilson. For one, he is one more concussion away from a significant dip in value. Injuries are unpredictable, but having the concussion issue looming over a player makes me feel unsafe.

More importantly, while McCoy is among the younger of the elite or semi-elite RB crowd, Wilson is 3 years younger than McCoy with his value on the rise. McCoy has already experienced his peak in value as a RB (when he was once considered top 4 overall in dynasty), and he should now be more properly valued as an early 2nd in a startup imo.

David Wilson can put up modest numbers in a semi-timeshare in 2013 and STILL see his value increase to where McCoy’s perceived value is now. If McCoy puts up those same modest numbers, his value is sure to decrease in a big way. Too many factors can result in McCoy losing value (including the mere passing of time), while little has to occur for Wilson’s to go up. In that sense, I believe Wilson to be the safer dynasty asset than McCoy right now. Add a mid 1st to Wilson, and it’s a slam dunk trade.

Those cashing in on Wilson at this time, at a RB10-ish value, will regret it later imo.

McCoy did it an at NFL level - a huge question mark has been answered. He has two top 3 seasons in PPR formats, and is still very young. He's had one concussion and it wasn't Collie/Best level.

If Wilson is more valuable because he is 3 years younger, then you'll always be playing catch-up. By the time he has production close to McCoy's, it's time to sell him again for the next flashy 21 year old drafted in the first round.

Wilson's value went up for reasons beyond him answering questions - it went up because this rookie crop was weak, and it went up because Spiller blew up and people are now going to look for the next version of him. There might not be another Spiller in the league right now, or over the next 3-4 years, even.

Wilson is not safer than McCoy - at all. He hasn't proven to be a productive NFL RB yet, with any kind of workload. That the most important question a RB prospect can answer - McCoy answered it. In taking Wilson over McCoy - you're doing so to have an andvantage in 4-5 years time. I wouldn't call that safe.

McCoy suffered his concussion in Week 11. He didn’t play again until Week 16. As far as concussions go, that’s a fairly long period of time and reports throughout were not all that encouraging (and for a McCoy owner like me, downright scary). He’s back now and in the world of dynasty, he gets a free pass (for which I am thankful). But he’ll only get this one. Another concussion like that would crush his value imo. I’d much rather invest in a comparable asset that still has their free pass.

As for which asset is safer, my use of “safe” in this context is market value safety. It sounds like you are talking more about production safety. Two different ways of looking at the situation (although my view of Wilson’s production safety is probably quite different than yours as well).

As far as market value goes, David Wilson needs to do far less over the next two years to increase his value to McCoy’s level and beyond than McCoy does just to maintain his. It is entirely possible that McCoy will significantly outscore Wilson over the next year but still have a consensus market value at that time that is less than Wilson’s. The way I play dynasty, future market value and market safety are quite important.

There is a cost to that market safety, and that is expected current production. I think the cost in this case is worth it, but I can understand those that do not. Throw in a mid-1st with Wilson in order to adjust for current market value and you’ve got a really good deal imo.

 

[Concept Coop]

McCoy suffered his concussion in Week 11. He didn’t play again until Week 16. As far as concussions go, that’s a fairly long period of time and reports throughout were not all that encouraging (and for a McCoy owner like me, downright scary). He’s back now and in the world of dynasty, he gets a free pass (for which I am thankful). But he’ll only get this one. Another concussion like that would crush his value imo. I’d much rather invest in a comparable asset that still has their free pass.

As for which asset is safer, my use of “safe” in this context is market value safety. It sounds like you are talking more about production safety. Two different ways of looking at the situation (although my view of Wilson’s production safety is probably quite different than yours as well).

As far as market value goes, David Wilson needs to do far less over the next two years to increase his value to McCoy’s level and beyond than McCoy does just to maintain his. It is entirely possible that McCoy will significantly outscore Wilson over the next year but still have a consensus market value at that time that is less than Wilson’s. The way I play dynasty, future market value and market safety are quite important.

There is a cost to that market safety, and that is expected current production. I think the cost in this case is worth it, but I can understand those that do not. Throw in a mid-1st with Wilson in order to adjust for current market value and you’ve got a really good deal imo.

I have to question your stance on each player's market value. It's quite an anomoly for a player to be benched and in the doghouse for much of the season, and see his value rise. I don't expect that to hold as the norm, myself. He's two fumbles away from being right back in the doghouse, and he has a history of fumbling. He has work to do in pass protection and he won't be the starter until he's much better in that area. What happens to his market value if he finishes as RB 20+ and Brown finishes as RB 17 or so? Right now, he's not the 3rd down back and he's not the goal line back. Is 2 down work without GL work enough to keep his market value where it is, assuming he can get 60% of those carries, which isn't a given in my mind? He's not going to get the receptions to keep him floating in PPR leagues.

This dynasty RB class is very weak and old and I think Wilson is being valued higher because of that. He's a 22 YO 1st round pick with a solid shot at a solid job. That's rare right now. But next year it might not be. This years top 4 rookie RBs all have opportunity to shoot up rankings, and next years class will very likely provide another couple young, starting, taletned, 1st round backs too.

Go back 2-3 years and look at dynasty rankings - compared to today, we were spoiled. AP,CJ,Forte, Foster, MJD, Charles,Rice, McCoy, Stewart, Mendhenall, McFadden, etc. Plenty of 22-25 YO elite talents. Place Wilson in that group and his value plummets. He is rare right now, but might not be, even this time next year. If two of Lacy, Gio, Ball, Bell pan out, and next year provides 2 Wilson level options - he's now one of a sizable group who are young and very talented. On top of that, guys like Pead, Lattimore, Miller, etc, are young and have a shot to be worth a lot this time next year.

I don't think the market will be as kind to him as it was this year, without more reason to be so. Just my thoughts.

 

[gianmarco]

McCoy suffered his concussion in Week 11. He didn’t play again until Week 16. As far as concussions go, that’s a fairly long period of time and reports throughout were not all that encouraging (and for a McCoy owner like me, downright scary). He’s back now and in the world of dynasty, he gets a free pass (for which I am thankful). But he’ll only get this one. Another concussion like that would crush his value imo. I’d much rather invest in a comparable asset that still has their free pass.

As for which asset is safer, my use of “safe” in this context is market value safety. It sounds like you are talking more about production safety. Two different ways of looking at the situation (although my view of Wilson’s production safety is probably quite different than yours as well).

As far as market value goes, David Wilson needs to do far less over the next two years to increase his value to McCoy’s level and beyond than McCoy does just to maintain his. It is entirely possible that McCoy will significantly outscore Wilson over the next year but still have a consensus market value at that time that is less than Wilson’s. The way I play dynasty, future market value and market safety are quite important.

There is a cost to that market safety, and that is expected current production. I think the cost in this case is worth it, but I can understand those that do not. Throw in a mid-1st with Wilson in order to adjust for current market value and you’ve got a really good deal imo.

I have to question your stance on each player's market value. It's quite an anomoly for a player to be benched and in the doghouse for much of the season, and see his value rise. I don't expect that to hold as the norm, myself. He's two fumbles away from being right back in the doghouse, and he has a history of fumbling. He has work to do in pass protection and he won't be the starter until he's much better in that area. What happens to his market value if he finishes as RB 20+ and Brown finishes as RB 17 or so? Right now, he's not the 3rd down back and he's not the goal line back. Is 2 down work without GL work enough to keep his market value where it is, assuming he can get 60% of those carries, which isn't a given in my mind? He's not going to get the receptions to keep him floating in PPR leagues.

This dynasty RB class is very weak and old and I think Wilson is being valued higher because of that. He's a 22 YO 1st round pick with a solid shot at a solid job. That's rare right now. But next year it might not be. This years top 4 rookie RBs all have opportunity to shoot up rankings, and next years class will very likely provide another couple young, starting, taletned, 1st round backs too.

Go back 2-3 years and look at dynasty rankings - compared to today, we were spoiled. AP,CJ,Forte, MJD, Charles,Rice, McCoy, Stewart, Mendhenall, McFadden, etc. Plenty of 22-25 YO elite talents. Place Wilson in that group and his value plummets. He is rare right now, but might not be, even this time next year. If two of Lacy, Gio, Ball, Bell pan out, and next year provides 2 Wilson level options - he's now one of a sizable group who are young and very talented. On top of that, guys like Pead, Lattimore, Miller, etc, are young and have a shot to be worth a lot this time next year.

I don't think the market will be as kind to him as it was this year, without more reason to be so. Just my thoughts.

Again, you keep on comparing him to "this class" or "that class".

His value isn't high because of Wilson's current peers. His value is high because of Wilson. It's high because of his talent. You can drop him in the middle of the class 2-3 yrs ago and it doesn't change who he is as a runner and his potential because of what he's capable of. You (and others) are so fixated on numbers and carries and Brown and other rookies and you're ignoring what makes his value so high--Wilson himself. Spiller was in the middle of those guys 2-3 yrs ago. Did that change who he ended up being? Stop being so fixated on his relative value and just look at him as an elite prospect on his own merits. If you can't, that's fine, but that's exactly why those of us who like him value him where we do.

He is not two fumbles away from being in the doghouse again. Coughlin (like Fox) doesn't play rookies very much. But they have CLEARLY turned the keys over to him. As to what will happen to his value if Brown finishes slightly ahead of him or if Wilson doesn't get all the snaps? Very little or nothing. In fact, for anyone that has any hopes of buying him, they should be hoping that happens. He'll still be only 23 and will have the inside track to the starting job the following year if by some miracle he doesn't have it this year. Again, look at Spiller as he sat behind FJax. His owners didn't budge (except for a slight few that got impatient and sold early).

Wilson's value is about as bust-proof as you can get.

 

[Concept Coop]

Again, you keep on comparing him to "this class" or "that class".

His value isn't high because of Wilson's current peers. His value is high because of Wilson. It's high because of his talent. You can drop him in the middle of the class 2-3 yrs ago and it doesn't change who he is as a runner and his potential because of what he's capable of. You (and others) are so fixated on numbers and carries and Brown and other rookies and you're ignoring what makes his value so high--Wilson himself. Spiller was in the middle of those guys 2-3 yrs ago. Did that change who he ended up being? Stop being so fixated on his relative value and just look at him as an elite prospect on his own merits. If you can't, that's fine, but that's exactly why those of us who like him value him where we do.

He is not two fumbles away from being in the doghouse again. Coughlin (like Fox) doesn't play rookies very much. But they have CLEARLY turned the keys over to him. As to what will happen to his value if Brown finishes slightly ahead of him or if Wilson doesn't get all the snaps? Very little or nothing. In fact, for anyone that has any hopes of buying him, they should be hoping that happens. He'll still be only 23 and will have the inside track to the starting job the following year if by some miracle he doesn't have it this year. Again, look at Spiller as he sat behind FJax. His owners didn't budge (except for a slight few that got impatient and sold early).

Wilson's value is about as bust-proof as you can get.

Everything of value is such becuase of supply and demand. There is a very low supply of quality RBs under 25 years old. The lowest I can remember, actually. But that's likely to change. That's why I bring up other dynasty crops. I don't expect him to be as rare, even this time next year. I think a lot of his value is based on a lack of comparable profiles. That will change. If you don't value him more or less, that's fine. I am not in a position to tell you why you value him. But I think the market is influenced by this. 2-3 year ago he wouldn't be going in the 2nd round. Hell, last year he wasn't going in the 2nd round.

If you're 90% sure on him, I couldn't blame you for having him in your top 5. But I don't put that much stock in my own scouting ability. The professionals are wrong about players they draft in the first round 50% of the time. I account for that. He's not the first guy with a strong backing prior to production and won't be the last.

And it's not a matter of me, and others, being fixated on any single factor, any more than you are fixated on your stance on him and are certain of your reasoning. We all take these things into consideration and come to our own conclusions. I'm only sharing mine, just as you're sharing yours.

 

[griff321]

The consensus for those of you saying to sell Wilson for a "proven" RB1 is because Wilson isn't "safe" or because he carries "risk". The same thing keeps coming up over and over. "But what if he's like Moreno or Ingram or D. Brown".

If you're looking at just the names and context, then sure, I can understand why you might be worried. Sure, he could be another in the line of RBs to bust. "Move him for someone that Wilson hopes to become". These types of statements just indicate that you need to actually see him do it for an extended period of time before you'll believe it.

Well, there's nothing wrong with that if you aren't comfortable with what you see. If you're afraid of risk, then sure, sell Wilson now by adding to him to get your proven guy. But for those of you asking why some of us won't do that--the answer is because I don't need to see him to do that to know what he is. It's the same reason I didn't need to see Spiller do it to know what he was capable of. It's not just a matter of pimping any young RB that has a chance to start. I wasn't going nuts trying to get Moreno in every league I owned. Same with Ingram. There's a reason I bought Spiller everywhere I could and held, patiently waiting.

Some of you may not see the difference between an unproven Wilson and some of those other busts. To me and some others, that difference is clear as day and is the explanation for why the Wilson hype is so "out of control". Could I (and others) be wrong about him? Sure, it's possible. But I'm quite comfortable in what I've seen from him that he won't be a bust and his ascension into EVERYONE's top 5 will be happening sooner rather than later.

You didn't have to see AP run in the NFL to know he was going to be a stud. Same thing with Calvin. When Julio and AJG were coming in, you didn't need to do much convincing that they would become elite guys eventually even before they showed anything at the next level. For some of us, Wilson is just another in line with those guys that has the goods and it's not necessary to watch him do it for a full year before I come to that conclusion. If you wait until then, he'll be untouchable.

For those of you that don't see ir or just want to cash in early on your investment and go the safe route, then sell Wilson for low RB1 value or add to him to get McCoy or Peterson. Me, I'll take those guys and buy Wilson now and get some free stuff added in. In no time, I'm pretty comfortable saying he'll join that elite RB group at the top. As Ernol pointed out above, THAT is the similarity between Spiller and Wilson. The talent is pretty obvious, IMO, in both cases and this is before they actually "prove it". And FWIW, no, I'm not selling Spiller now for the next young RB. So it's not just a matter of waiting until he hits the promised land and then moving him for the next young toy.

I can respect that. A few years ago I took McCoy #1 in a startup and was laughed at. Peterson and CJ2K were the ADP options. I was laughed at again when I traded McCoy and Brady for Julio and Newton - both rookies at the time. I understand calling your shot and going all in on it, to a degree.

Here's what I don't understand - and this is an honest question and not rhetorical - where did you rank him last year? I don't understand how he goes from 5th round startup pick to 2nd round startup pick, based on 71 carries, most of the productive ones coming against poor defenses at the end of the season. If there were 2 or 3 1st round RBs in this last class who ran a 4.4, Wilson wouldn't be as unique in his youth and potential. It's going to happen next year, though, and likely the year after.

Easy, you had Bradshaw there and how the fact that most rookie RBs don't get a lot of play time with coughlin.

For the people that knew the writing was on the wall that you'd most likely have to sit on him for a year. I was raving about his talent last year but also cautioned people that they have to give this a year minimum. (LOOK AT ME!!)

 

[Concept Coop]

Easy, you had Bradshaw there and how the fact that most rookie RBs don't get a lot of play time with coughlin.

For the people that knew the writing was on the wall that you'd most likely have to sit on him for a year. I was raving about his talent last year but also cautioned people that they have to give this a year minimum. (LOOK AT ME!!)

I think that could be part of it. I don't think it's all of it, however. I don't think a 2-3 round bump in ADP can be explained by the replacement of Bradshaw with Brown. I think Spiller did wonders for his value, if I had to guess.

But this is all pointless, right now, I admit. He's a 2nd-3rd round startup pick, despite the reasons, and, hopefully, we'll get a shot to see if he lives up to it or not starting next year.

 

[DoubleG]

I owned Wilson in two leagues. I packaged him with Sam Bradford in one league for Trent Richardson. I am holding him and counting on him as my RB2 in front of Jonathan Stewart and Daryl Richardson in the other. So I kind of diversified on him a little bit but I still want to hang onto him too. So I am hopefully having my cake and eating it too.

Solid on both points. This is what I am talking about exactly. If you can move hime for a "true" RB1 - do so. If you can't, he will likely provide RB2 value moving forward.

 

[monk]

Brown is just a guy. He'll have a role, but he's certainly not someone I'd be too worried about as a Wilson owner.

Wilson's stats last year: 71 carries for 358 (5.0 YPC) - 4 TDs. Receiving 4/34/1

Brown's stats last year: 73 carries for 385 (5.3 YPC) - 8 TDs. Receving 12/86/0

I know for some Wilson owners, they claim they "eyeball test" is what gives Wilson the huge edge. Try using those eyeballs to look at the actual production. Again, I'm not saying Wilson wont have a good year - but if you can move him for a real RB1, I would think long and hard about it. As long as Brown's around, I think he eats into Wilson's production just enough to keep him an RB2. And tha's presuming Wilson stays healthy, doesn't put the ball on the ground, and is the leader of the RBBC.

I know the numbers. Brown is just a guy.

In his 4 years in the NFL, he's been on 6 different teams. He's been stuck on practice squads. He has 75 career attempts in 4 years.

Again, Brown is just a guy and will never be more than that. He may show some stuff over short stretches but, aside from having a defined role as a secondary back or coming in due to injury (ironic, if it happens), he won't ever become the lead RB and hold it for any significant amount of time. A team will never make him the lead RB and keep him there. The list of guys like Samkon Gado or Marcel Reece is incredibly long and it's the kind of list that Andre Brown belongs on. If he were to land the lead role due to injury and excel with it, it will only be a short matter of time before he is replaced.

It's more than just the "eyeball test" (even though Wilson absolutely smokes him in that). Wilson is a 1st round draft pick. If you don't think that matters, pull up a list of 1st round RBs and you'll see a very common theme. Guys on that list are given the opportunity to succeed as the main RB almost without exception and relatively early on.

There is exactly ZERO chance that Brown takes the starting job from Wilson and keeps it away from him. I'm willing to lay down any kind of odds and coin on that. Wilson will be the starter week 1. If by some chance it's Brown at that point, by year's end, it will most assuredly not be. Brown will get some carries, he may get some goalline work, and if Wilson were to get hurt for some reason, he might even start a few games and get a good number of carries and do well with it. And that'll be it.

You don't even read the post your responding to, do you? At no point did I say Brwon was the starter, in fact, I pointed out quite the opposite - that Wilson will be the lead back - and that Brown still would likely eat into his carries enough to take him out of RB1 rankings.

Again, I am not suggesting (nor have I yet) that you should dump Wilson for nothing - or even another RB2. But if you can trade for an RB1, do it.

This view, imo, is a short term one. You already assume that Wilson will be the lead back and yet are dissuaded from ranking him as an RB1 in dynasty due to the effect Brown may have to his 2013 numbers. Wilson is young, very young, and a timeshare for a year may be what the Giants have planned (then again, it may not). But unless you think that a timeshare will continue indefinitely, and there’s nothing that tells me that Brown has the talent to keep Wilson in a timeshare for too long, any effect Brown will have on Wilson’s numbers should not have a substantial effect on Wilson’s value in dynasty.

I’m not concerned about Brown in the least, nor was I concerned about Bradshaw before he got cut, but not because they won’t eat into Wilson’s production in 2013. Brown just might do that (and Bradshaw would have as well had he not gotten cut). I am not concerned about Brown (or Bradshaw before him) because 2013 doesn’t matter all that much in the grand scheme of Wilson's dynasty value as long as Wilson has a decent year. RB2 numbers in 2013 will vault Wilson, in most eyes, into the top 5 on its own. Next year, who would you rank ahead of a 23 year old Wilson if he produces as an RB2 in 2013. A 28 year old Arian Foster (ick)? A 29 year old Adrian Peterson?

Wilson has a window of 2-3 years to produce as an RB1. If he does so in any of the next 2-3 years (which I think he will), at the age of 24 or 25, his value will be at top 3 RB (where Spiller is now, only higher due to being younger) and potentially #1.

Wilson has already produced as a RB1 ...

Over his last 4 games he averaged 68 yds and a TD per game on 11 touches per game

Also averaged 110 kick return yds per game over those 4 games and returned 1 for a TD

He accounted for 178 yds and 1.25 tds per game over that span

Also led the NFL in kick Return Yardage ... I'd say he's arrived.

 

[monk]

The consensus for those of you saying to sell Wilson for a "proven" RB1 is because Wilson isn't "safe" or because he carries "risk". The same thing keeps coming up over and over. "But what if he's like Moreno or Ingram or D. Brown".

If you're looking at just the names and context, then sure, I can understand why you might be worried. Sure, he could be another in the line of RBs to bust. "Move him for someone that Wilson hopes to become". These types of statements just indicate that you need to actually see him do it for an extended period of time before you'll believe it.

Well, there's nothing wrong with that if you aren't comfortable with what you see. If you're afraid of risk, then sure, sell Wilson now by adding to him to get your proven guy. But for those of you asking why some of us won't do that--the answer is because I don't need to see him to do that to know what he is. It's the same reason I didn't need to see Spiller do it to know what he was capable of. It's not just a matter of pimping any young RB that has a chance to start. I wasn't going nuts trying to get Moreno in every league I owned. Same with Ingram. There's a reason I bought Spiller everywhere I could and held, patiently waiting.

Some of you may not see the difference between an unproven Wilson and some of those other busts. To me and some others, that difference is clear as day and is the explanation for why the Wilson hype is so "out of control". Could I (and others) be wrong about him? Sure, it's possible. But I'm quite comfortable in what I've seen from him that he won't be a bust and his ascension into EVERYONE's top 5 will be happening sooner rather than later.

You didn't have to see AP run in the NFL to know he was going to be a stud. Same thing with Calvin. When Julio and AJG were coming in, you didn't need to do much convincing that they would become elite guys eventually even before they showed anything at the next level. For some of us, Wilson is just another in line with those guys that has the goods and it's not necessary to watch him do it for a full year before I come to that conclusion. If you wait until then, he'll be untouchable.

For those of you that don't see ir or just want to cash in early on your investment and go the safe route, then sell Wilson for low RB1 value or add to him to get McCoy or Peterson. Me, I'll take those guys and buy Wilson now and get some free stuff added in. In no time, I'm pretty comfortable saying he'll join that elite RB group at the top. As Ernol pointed out above, THAT is the similarity between Spiller and Wilson. The talent is pretty obvious, IMO, in both cases and this is before they actually "prove it". And FWIW, no, I'm not selling Spiller now for the next young RB. So it's not just a matter of waiting until he hits the promised land and then moving him for the next young toy.

I can respect that. A few years ago I took McCoy #1 in a startup and was laughed at. Peterson and CJ2K were the ADP options. I was laughed at again when I traded McCoy and Brady for Julio and Newton - both rookies at the time. I understand calling your shot and going all in on it, to a degree.

Here's what I don't understand - and this is an honest question and not rhetorical - where did you rank him last year? I don't understand how he goes from 5th round startup pick to 2nd round startup pick, based on 71 carries, most of the productive ones coming against poor defenses at the end of the season. If there were 2 or 3 1st round RBs in this last class who ran a 4.4, Wilson wouldn't be as unique in his youth and potential. It's going to happen next year, though, and likely the year after.

I'm not sure what your point is but these were both bad trades and should be laughed at.

 

[tdmills]

Brown is just a guy. He'll have a role, but he's certainly not someone I'd be too worried about as a Wilson owner.

Wilson's stats last year: 71 carries for 358 (5.0 YPC) - 4 TDs. Receiving 4/34/1

Brown's stats last year: 73 carries for 385 (5.3 YPC) - 8 TDs. Receving 12/86/0

I know for some Wilson owners, they claim they "eyeball test" is what gives Wilson the huge edge. Try using those eyeballs to look at the actual production. Again, I'm not saying Wilson wont have a good year - but if you can move him for a real RB1, I would think long and hard about it. As long as Brown's around, I think he eats into Wilson's production just enough to keep him an RB2. And tha's presuming Wilson stays healthy, doesn't put the ball on the ground, and is the leader of the RBBC.

I know the numbers. Brown is just a guy.

In his 4 years in the NFL, he's been on 6 different teams. He's been stuck on practice squads. He has 75 career attempts in 4 years.

Again, Brown is just a guy and will never be more than that. He may show some stuff over short stretches but, aside from having a defined role as a secondary back or coming in due to injury (ironic, if it happens), he won't ever become the lead RB and hold it for any significant amount of time. A team will never make him the lead RB and keep him there. The list of guys like Samkon Gado or Marcel Reece is incredibly long and it's the kind of list that Andre Brown belongs on. If he were to land the lead role due to injury and excel with it, it will only be a short matter of time before he is replaced.

It's more than just the "eyeball test" (even though Wilson absolutely smokes him in that). Wilson is a 1st round draft pick. If you don't think that matters, pull up a list of 1st round RBs and you'll see a very common theme. Guys on that list are given the opportunity to succeed as the main RB almost without exception and relatively early on.

There is exactly ZERO chance that Brown takes the starting job from Wilson and keeps it away from him. I'm willing to lay down any kind of odds and coin on that. Wilson will be the starter week 1. If by some chance it's Brown at that point, by year's end, it will most assuredly not be. Brown will get some carries, he may get some goalline work, and if Wilson were to get hurt for some reason, he might even start a few games and get a good number of carries and do well with it. And that'll be it.

You don't even read the post your responding to, do you? At no point did I say Brwon was the starter, in fact, I pointed out quite the opposite - that Wilson will be the lead back - and that Brown still would likely eat into his carries enough to take him out of RB1 rankings.

Again, I am not suggesting (nor have I yet) that you should dump Wilson for nothing - or even another RB2. But if you can trade for an RB1, do it.

This view, imo, is a short term one. You already assume that Wilson will be the lead back and yet are dissuaded from ranking him as an RB1 in dynasty due to the effect Brown may have to his 2013 numbers. Wilson is young, very young, and a timeshare for a year may be what the Giants have planned (then again, it may not). But unless you think that a timeshare will continue indefinitely, and there’s nothing that tells me that Brown has the talent to keep Wilson in a timeshare for too long, any effect Brown will have on Wilson’s numbers should not have a substantial effect on Wilson’s value in dynasty.

I’m not concerned about Brown in the least, nor was I concerned about Bradshaw before he got cut, but not because they won’t eat into Wilson’s production in 2013. Brown just might do that (and Bradshaw would have as well had he not gotten cut). I am not concerned about Brown (or Bradshaw before him) because 2013 doesn’t matter all that much in the grand scheme of Wilson's dynasty value as long as Wilson has a decent year. RB2 numbers in 2013 will vault Wilson, in most eyes, into the top 5 on its own. Next year, who would you rank ahead of a 23 year old Wilson if he produces as an RB2 in 2013. A 28 year old Arian Foster (ick)? A 29 year old Adrian Peterson?

Wilson has a window of 2-3 years to produce as an RB1. If he does so in any of the next 2-3 years (which I think he will), at the age of 24 or 25, his value will be at top 3 RB (where Spiller is now, only higher due to being younger) and potentially #1.

Wilson has already produced as a RB1 ...

Over his last 4 games he averaged 68 yds and a TD per game on 11 touches per game

Also averaged 110 kick return yds per game over those 4 games and returned 1 for a TD

He accounted for 178 yds and 1.25 tds per game over that span

Also led the NFL in kick Return Yardage ... I'd say he's arrived.

Kick returns mean nothing in my league and no 68 yards + a TD do not= RB1

 

[tdmills]

The consensus for those of you saying to sell Wilson for a "proven" RB1 is because Wilson isn't "safe" or because he carries "risk". The same thing keeps coming up over and over. "But what if he's like Moreno or Ingram or D. Brown".

If you're looking at just the names and context, then sure, I can understand why you might be worried. Sure, he could be another in the line of RBs to bust. "Move him for someone that Wilson hopes to become". These types of statements just indicate that you need to actually see him do it for an extended period of time before you'll believe it.

Well, there's nothing wrong with that if you aren't comfortable with what you see. If you're afraid of risk, then sure, sell Wilson now by adding to him to get your proven guy. But for those of you asking why some of us won't do that--the answer is because I don't need to see him to do that to know what he is. It's the same reason I didn't need to see Spiller do it to know what he was capable of. It's not just a matter of pimping any young RB that has a chance to start. I wasn't going nuts trying to get Moreno in every league I owned. Same with Ingram. There's a reason I bought Spiller everywhere I could and held, patiently waiting.

Some of you may not see the difference between an unproven Wilson and some of those other busts. To me and some others, that difference is clear as day and is the explanation for why the Wilson hype is so "out of control". Could I (and others) be wrong about him? Sure, it's possible. But I'm quite comfortable in what I've seen from him that he won't be a bust and his ascension into EVERYONE's top 5 will be happening sooner rather than later.

You didn't have to see AP run in the NFL to know he was going to be a stud. Same thing with Calvin. When Julio and AJG were coming in, you didn't need to do much convincing that they would become elite guys eventually even before they showed anything at the next level. For some of us, Wilson is just another in line with those guys that has the goods and it's not necessary to watch him do it for a full year before I come to that conclusion. If you wait until then, he'll be untouchable.

For those of you that don't see ir or just want to cash in early on your investment and go the safe route, then sell Wilson for low RB1 value or add to him to get McCoy or Peterson. Me, I'll take those guys and buy Wilson now and get some free stuff added in. In no time, I'm pretty comfortable saying he'll join that elite RB group at the top. As Ernol pointed out above, THAT is the similarity between Spiller and Wilson. The talent is pretty obvious, IMO, in both cases and this is before they actually "prove it". And FWIW, no, I'm not selling Spiller now for the next young RB. So it's not just a matter of waiting until he hits the promised land and then moving him for the next young toy.

I can respect that. A few years ago I took McCoy #1 in a startup and was laughed at. Peterson and CJ2K were the ADP options. I was laughed at again when I traded McCoy and Brady for Julio and Newton - both rookies at the time. I understand calling your shot and going all in on it, to a degree.

Here's what I don't understand - and this is an honest question and not rhetorical - where did you rank him last year? I don't understand how he goes from 5th round startup pick to 2nd round startup pick, based on 71 carries, most of the productive ones coming against poor defenses at the end of the season. If there were 2 or 3 1st round RBs in this last class who ran a 4.4, Wilson wouldn't be as unique in his youth and potential. It's going to happen next year, though, and likely the year after.

I'm not sure what your point is but these were both bad trades and should be laughed at.

Julio>McCoy

Newton>Brady

In a dynasty, for me anyway

 

[Wyld Stallyns]

In the leagues that I'm in, there's a few players that seem to end up on most of my rosters. These are guys that I value far more than others and try to buy up when I can. As I don't often keep my rookie picks in leagues, it ends up being a situation where I have to trade for a guy after the fact. Wilson was going in the top 6-7 picks last year, and with rookie fever, it often costs more to obtain. The fact that he only had 71 carries and had to sit for most of the year was a Godsend. I saw this because I don't think I get most of those deals below if he played any significant amount of time. Even still, they held strong and I ended up having to pay a "premium". I put that in quotes because I overpaid by market value but still feel I underpaid overall. Here's a summary of a few leagues where I have him and how I got him: 1. Had the 1.2 and moved it for the 1.4/1.6. If I had kept the 1.2, I was taking Wilson. I moved down knowing I could get him at 1.4, which I did and then added Luck at 1.6.2. In a dev league, he was already rostered. I was lucky to make a move shortly afterward of S. Hill (with the hype) and Housler (1.5 ppr for TE league) for Wilson. This owner regrets the decision now but there were reasons for the trade at the time. In other leagues, the Wilson owners were particularly high on him (as they should be) and wouldn't move throughout the year. I kept trying over and over with above market offers and was repeatedly declined. As the year wore on, I realized that I needed to just pay and get it done because it was going to be too late if I didn't. 1) Moved Morris/Flacco for Wilson. This was after the season but was pretty easy to do.2) Moved the 1.1 this year in January straight up for him. Again, pretty easy to do.3) Moved Foster/Tate for Wilson/Bradshaw in January. This is one I know 98% of people will just shake their heads at. This is what it took to get him and wasn't an issue at all for me.4) Moved Harvin for Wilson/Jeffery. This was easily the hardest one for me as Harvin is a flat out stud. This is more of a gamble on Jeffery than it is the others. I wouldn't otherwise move Harvin for him, but I feel the gamble on Jeffery's upside made this worth it. This was more of a "push" for me with Jeffery's upside offsetting the risk of Wilson's value being lower than Harvin.5) Moved Calvin/Nicks for Julio/Wilson. This was another no-brainer for me as it combined 2 trades that I'd make. Calvin = Julio to me, but all things being equal, I'll actually take Julio at this point (discussed this elsewhere already and can link if you'd like). Moving Nicks for Wilson is easy. The funny thing is I ended up trading Wilson in this league to get DT a bit afterward so I'm not averse to moving him (even though I miss him already on that roster).6) In a league co-owned with someone else, we moved the sure thing of Ray Rice for DT/Wilson at the beginning of last year during the summer. We got roasted for that trade at the time. This was my co-owners idea but I had no problem with the move whatsoever. So to answer your question, I won't say I specifically had Wilson in my top 5 at the start of the year. But as things played themselves out, it became pretty evident that I felt more and more comfortable putting him up there and could still buy at lower prices. It didn't take much at the next level to confirm what I saw and just helped reinforce that I was making the right call. You wonder how only 71 carries could vault him up there. The simple answer is probably this: He was there all along for me and I just didn't realize it. Those 71 carries were more than enough to allow me to stick with what I thought.

I feel like David Wilson should maybe file a restraining order against you.

 

[TheFanatic]

I don't get this, Brown is just a guy. On similar carries he had a higher YPC carry than someone some are touting as a top 5 RB. If he is just a guy, why did Wilson, and all his god like talent, ride the pine behind Brown until the latter got injured?

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

I don't get this, Brown is just a guy. On similar carries he had a higher YPC carry than someone some are touting as a top 5 RB. If he is just a guy, why did Wilson, and all his god like talent, ride the pine behind Brown until the latter got injured?

because old coaches out think themselves sometimes? Rookies have trouble with pass protection and gameplans and playbooks?

 

[msudaisy26]

The Giants have used RBBC for at least the last 6-7 years. And I don't suppose we can stop comparing Wilson to Spiller?

Spiller was the 9th overall pick and the 1st RB off the board in 2010. Wilson was the 32nd overall pick (meaning every team in the league passed on him until the Giants) - and the 3rd RB taken. Now, I realize it's tough to compare draft classes (even though many touting Wilson are doing that), but here are some other (Non-Spiller) 1st round RBs of recent vintage - just so we don't assume that first round RBs are automatic HOF players:

2011: Mark Ingram

2010: Ryan Matthews and Jahvid Best (Best was the 3rd RB taken and taken 30th overall - a similar spot to Wilson)

2009: Knowshon Moreno, Donald Brown AND Beanie Wells - a bumper crop there!

2008: Jonathtan Stewart, Felix Jones and Rashard Mendenhall (AND STOP!! We found one!!! Mendy was a top 5...oops, no RB8...well close enough...one time....)

But hey, feel free to keep drinking the "he was drafted in the first round, the Giants will suddenly stop running RBBC, A. Brown aint a threat to take carries" kool-aid. But keep in mind, that was ALL the 1st round backs (not just the 3rd RB taken).

Why do you leave off some of the backs that go against your point? Or fail to mention the other 2 backs taken in the first round the same year as Wilson, and compare him with Best who was a huge injury risk before he played in the NFL, but was very productive fantasy wise when he was on the field.

The only back I left off was Spiller - whom I was trying to point is not the only comparison. The other two taken earlier in the same draft (Richardson and Martin) is a silly comparison...of course they're better - that's why they were taken before him. And honestly, the odds that all 3 backs going in the first round last year are going to "grow up" to be studs are fairly slim - as such, arguing that Richardson and Martin are strong RB1s actually makes it more unlikely that Wilson will be too...not less.

Incidentally injury risk IS a possible reason Wilson would not live up to high expectations - that is the case with virtually every RB, but moreso with young RBs who haven't proven they can sustain productivity over the grind of a 16 game NFL season. There are times in dynasty where you overpay for potential at the risk of production. In Wilson's case, I am simply suggesting that it might be better to cash in on potential and instead find someone that has already proven production at the NFL level on a consistant basis...especially if you can trade potential RB1 for actual RB1.

There are owners seemingly convinced beyond reasonable doubt that Wilson is the next Spiller or (insert name of any RB1 here) - I am simply suggesting that it is equally (at least) possible that he is the next Knowshon Moreno, Donald Brown, Jonathan Stewart, Mark Ingram or Felix Jones - all guys that had similar hype surrounding them as rookies and 2nd year players. Some of you disagree - and that's fine. I am merely trying to point out why I would rather bet that he is not the next top 5 RB for years to come, rather that he is.

You also left off Mcfadden.

How do you know they are better, Wilson hasn't had a chance yet and saying they are better because they were drafted higher doesn't make it so, and even if it did Martin was one pick higher so that would mean Martin is about .5 percent better than Wilson so you can bank on Wilson being a rb1.

Why are the odds against Wilson being a stud running back, because Martin and Richardson are great backs, how does that factor into whether Wilson will be a stud or a bust? What Martin and Richardson become has absoutley no affect on what Wilson does in his career.

Injury is a risk for everyone but Best already had a concussion history before he got into the league.

I am not sure if he is a sell high or not, but he has shown more than all those running backs did other than Stewart, but that is another story.

 

[Concept Coop]

I'm not sure what your point is but these were both bad trades and should be laughed at.

McCoy finished #2 in RB PPG that year. He's outscored Peterson in 2 of the last 3 seasons. He's 4 years younger. I'd still take him over Peterson in PPR formats.

McCoy and Julio both have 1st round startup ADPs. But Newton's is 2 rounds higher than Brady's.

 

[CR69]

I drafted him with the 1.06 last year in one league. I traded the 2.06 (he drafted Ryan Tannehill) last year and my 2013 1st (which ended up being 1.06) to get him during the rookie draft. I traded Morris/Bennett/2014 1st (should be late) for Wilson/Gordon/Marvin Jones in another league. I'm obviously a big believer, but think I got him at a pretty decent price in both deals.

It would take quite a bit to get him from me because there aren't many RBs in the tiers under him that I'm confident having as my RB2/3 and very few of them have the upside. There's little reward for the risk so I'd rather hang on to him unless I was stacked at RB and could afford to trade him for a top player at another position.

 

[DoubleG]

The Giants have used RBBC for at least the last 6-7 years. And I don't suppose we can stop comparing Wilson to Spiller?

Spiller was the 9th overall pick and the 1st RB off the board in 2010. Wilson was the 32nd overall pick (meaning every team in the league passed on him until the Giants) - and the 3rd RB taken. Now, I realize it's tough to compare draft classes (even though many touting Wilson are doing that), but here are some other (Non-Spiller) 1st round RBs of recent vintage - just so we don't assume that first round RBs are automatic HOF players:

2011: Mark Ingram

2010: Ryan Matthews and Jahvid Best (Best was the 3rd RB taken and taken 30th overall - a similar spot to Wilson)

2009: Knowshon Moreno, Donald Brown AND Beanie Wells - a bumper crop there!

2008: Jonathtan Stewart, Felix Jones and Rashard Mendenhall (AND STOP!! We found one!!! Mendy was a top 5...oops, no RB8...well close enough...one time....)

But hey, feel free to keep drinking the "he was drafted in the first round, the Giants will suddenly stop running RBBC, A. Brown aint a threat to take carries" kool-aid. But keep in mind, that was ALL the 1st round backs (not just the 3rd RB taken).

Why do you leave off some of the backs that go against your point? Or fail to mention the other 2 backs taken in the first round the same year as Wilson, and compare him with Best who was a huge injury risk before he played in the NFL, but was very productive fantasy wise when he was on the field.

The only back I left off was Spiller - whom I was trying to point is not the only comparison. The other two taken earlier in the same draft (Richardson and Martin) is a silly comparison...of course they're better - that's why they were taken before him. And honestly, the odds that all 3 backs going in the first round last year are going to "grow up" to be studs are fairly slim - as such, arguing that Richardson and Martin are strong RB1s actually makes it more unlikely that Wilson will be too...not less.

Incidentally injury risk IS a possible reason Wilson would not live up to high expectations - that is the case with virtually every RB, but moreso with young RBs who haven't proven they can sustain productivity over the grind of a 16 game NFL season. There are times in dynasty where you overpay for potential at the risk of production. In Wilson's case, I am simply suggesting that it might be better to cash in on potential and instead find someone that has already proven production at the NFL level on a consistant basis...especially if you can trade potential RB1 for actual RB1.

There are owners seemingly convinced beyond reasonable doubt that Wilson is the next Spiller or (insert name of any RB1 here) - I am simply suggesting that it is equally (at least) possible that he is the next Knowshon Moreno, Donald Brown, Jonathan Stewart, Mark Ingram or Felix Jones - all guys that had similar hype surrounding them as rookies and 2nd year players. Some of you disagree - and that's fine. I am merely trying to point out why I would rather bet that he is not the next top 5 RB for years to come, rather that he is.

You also left off Mcfadden.

How do you know they are better, Wilson hasn't had a chance yet and saying they are better because they were drafted higher doesn't make it so, and even if it did Martin was one pick higher so that would mean Martin is about .5 percent better than Wilson so you can bank on Wilson being a rb1.

I am not sure if he is a sell high or not, but he has shown more than all those running backs did other than Stewart, but that is another story.

You are correct - I left off McFadden. Not sure how I missed him. He would have been at the front of that 2008 class...and ironically, similar to Mendenhall has exactly 1 top 10 finish in 5 seasons. To be fair it was RB6 in 2010 (depending on your league's scoring, of course) - which kind of strengthens my point about injury.

Your point about Martin being exactly .5% better based on draft position makes absolutely no sense - nor does the comment about Wilson (with all 70+ of his NFL carries) showing more than all those other backs. Sure, in hindsight, that's easy to say - now do a search for "Mark Ingram" on these boards, or most of those other RBs and how they were hyped and ranked after their rookie campaigns.

In FF (especially in dynasty) there are 2 schools of thought - not intentionally, I just think people naturally fall into one or the other. One is that young players have as much upside as the best player with their skill set, until they prove otherwise. The other is that young players are no better than their stats until they prove otherwise. Both positions have their flaws. The first overpays for potential and overvalues youth, because players with less experience haven't "proven" they are not as good as their upside. The other tends to be behind the curve, having to overpay for players because they are now a known commodity - and a good one. All of use likely switch these mindsets - especially for certain players (especially if we drafted them). Simply put, it's called confirmation bias. Those who own Wilson see the upside they hope for (or hoped for when they drafted him). I am simply suggesting that as good FF owners, use confirmation bias to your advantage. Find the owner in your league (or another one if you are one) that sees Wilson as a sure-fire RB1 with top 5 upside...then trade him Wilson for an RB1 who has proven it. History suggests that in the long run you have a better chance of being the owner of an RB1 than he does with Wilson. 100%? Nope.

But look at that list of 1st round RBs (this time mentally adding McFadden back in). Now, not all were thought to a top 5 dynatsy RB - but many if not all were presumed to be an RB1 at some point. Most have failed...some spectacularly.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I don't get this, Brown is just a guy. On similar carries he had a higher YPC carry than someone some are touting as a top 5 RB. If he is just a guy, why did Wilson, and all his god like talent, ride the pine behind Brown until the latter got injured?

During the first game Wilson and Bradshaw were rotating in and out on every snap until Wilson fumbled. Coughlin then benched Wilson to "teach him a lesson." just the type of coach Coughlin is.Brown earned a bigger role with his performance once he saw the field. As far as who outperformed who based on the stats, by now we should all know the dangers of strictly looking at just ypc if we haven't delved any deeper than that. The Carolina game in particular was some of the worst run defense I have ever witnessed in all my years watching football.Brown is not a terrible back. He's solid. Wilson looked far more electric. There have been many recent rookies who didn't do much during thier first year in the league (McCoy, Mendenhall, Rice among others) that followed up with strong second seasons. We'll see what happens.

 

[Phenix]

No insight really, just the truth and this is not opinion here, lol...

The love for a Giants RB that was in the Dog House most last year needs to stop. He couldn't beat out Andre Brown last year, he will not do it this year either. He is nothing special as he had one good game, AGAINST THE SAINTS PUTRID DEFENSE. He benefited from injuries in front of him. What about the 2 carries for 4 yard game, or 3 carries for 6 yard game, or the 1 carry for 1 yard game, or the 4 for 9, or 6 for 13, or 1 for -2.

LMFAO, I am laughing at everyone who assumes Wilson is a stud. I saw him moved for ADP yesterday. WTF? You kidding me. What has he done, or what will he do in an offense that has a better RB in Brown, who by the way scored 8 tds on 73 carries last year, and that has always used a RBBC.

Do you research and let go of the FBG koolaid, this is laughable and not to many see it.

Brown is 26 years old and has a total of 75 career carries. David Wilson is 21 years old and has a total of 56 career carries. What about those facts makes you think Brown has any kind of edge? He has less than 1 games worth of full time carries logged than Wilson does. Sheesh.

Dude hasnt had the opportunity as he was not a high draft pick.

What part of Brown is better, his stat line of last year shows that, do you not get? Sheesh.

Not everyone cares about age in dynasty, trades and moves can be made to adjust. People put to much weight into age.

Oh and he has more fumbles then Brown too, not to mention you got Wilsons carries wrong, its 71! Remember coaches do not care about fantasy, its a full Blown RBBC.

Ok guy. We get it, you are a Brown owner.

Ummmm, and you are a Wilson owner, so? Funny, I own Brown in one of seven leagues, you own Wilson in two. What point are you trying to make with "Ok guy. We get it, you are a Brown owner."

Do you know how foolish that looks to blame someone for taking a stance for Brown, then you saying that you own Wilson. Pretty funny to laugh at your remarks as foolish, no?

I owned Wilson in two leagues. I packaged him with Sam Bradford in one league for Trent Richardson. I am holding him and counting on him as my RB2 in front of Jonathan Stewart and Daryl Richardson in the other. So I kind of diversified on him a little bit but I still want to hang onto him too. So I am hopefully having my cake and eating it too.

 

[Tau837]

In the leagues that I'm in, there's a few players that seem to end up on most of my rosters. These are guys that I value far more than others and try to buy up when I can. As I don't often keep my rookie picks in leagues, it ends up being a situation where I have to trade for a guy after the fact. Wilson was going in the top 6-7 picks last year, and with rookie fever, it often costs more to obtain. The fact that he only had 71 carries and had to sit for most of the year was a Godsend. I saw this because I don't think I get most of those deals below if he played any significant amount of time. Even still, they held strong and I ended up having to pay a "premium". I put that in quotes because I overpaid by market value but still feel I underpaid overall. Here's a summary of a few leagues where I have him and how I got him: 1. Had the 1.2 and moved it for the 1.4/1.6. If I had kept the 1.2, I was taking Wilson. I moved down knowing I could get him at 1.4, which I did and then added Luck at 1.6.2. In a dev league, he was already rostered. I was lucky to make a move shortly afterward of S. Hill (with the hype) and Housler (1.5 ppr for TE league) for Wilson. This owner regrets the decision now but there were reasons for the trade at the time. In other leagues, the Wilson owners were particularly high on him (as they should be) and wouldn't move throughout the year. I kept trying over and over with above market offers and was repeatedly declined. As the year wore on, I realized that I needed to just pay and get it done because it was going to be too late if I didn't. 1) Moved Morris/Flacco for Wilson. This was after the season but was pretty easy to do.2) Moved the 1.1 this year in January straight up for him. Again, pretty easy to do.3) Moved Foster/Tate for Wilson/Bradshaw in January. This is one I know 98% of people will just shake their heads at. This is what it took to get him and wasn't an issue at all for me.4) Moved Harvin for Wilson/Jeffery. This was easily the hardest one for me as Harvin is a flat out stud. This is more of a gamble on Jeffery than it is the others. I wouldn't otherwise move Harvin for him, but I feel the gamble on Jeffery's upside made this worth it. This was more of a "push" for me with Jeffery's upside offsetting the risk of Wilson's value being lower than Harvin.5) Moved Calvin/Nicks for Julio/Wilson. This was another no-brainer for me as it combined 2 trades that I'd make. Calvin = Julio to me, but all things being equal, I'll actually take Julio at this point (discussed this elsewhere already and can link if you'd like). Moving Nicks for Wilson is easy. The funny thing is I ended up trading Wilson in this league to get DT a bit afterward so I'm not averse to moving him (even though I miss him already on that roster).6) In a league co-owned with someone else, we moved the sure thing of Ray Rice for DT/Wilson at the beginning of last year during the summer. We got roasted for that trade at the time. This was my co-owners idea but I had no problem with the move whatsoever. So to answer your question, I won't say I specifically had Wilson in my top 5 at the start of the year. But as things played themselves out, it became pretty evident that I felt more and more comfortable putting him up there and could still buy at lower prices. It didn't take much at the next level to confirm what I saw and just helped reinforce that I was making the right call. You wonder how only 71 carries could vault him up there. The simple answer is probably this: He was there all along for me and I just didn't realize it. Those 71 carries were more than enough to allow me to stick with what I thought.

I feel like David Wilson should maybe file a restraining order against you.

 

[monk]

Brown is just a guy. He'll have a role, but he's certainly not someone I'd be too worried about as a Wilson owner.

Wilson's stats last year: 71 carries for 358 (5.0 YPC) - 4 TDs. Receiving 4/34/1

Brown's stats last year: 73 carries for 385 (5.3 YPC) - 8 TDs. Receving 12/86/0

I know for some Wilson owners, they claim they "eyeball test" is what gives Wilson the huge edge. Try using those eyeballs to look at the actual production. Again, I'm not saying Wilson wont have a good year - but if you can move him for a real RB1, I would think long and hard about it. As long as Brown's around, I think he eats into Wilson's production just enough to keep him an RB2. And tha's presuming Wilson stays healthy, doesn't put the ball on the ground, and is the leader of the RBBC.

I know the numbers. Brown is just a guy.

In his 4 years in the NFL, he's been on 6 different teams. He's been stuck on practice squads. He has 75 career attempts in 4 years.

Again, Brown is just a guy and will never be more than that. He may show some stuff over short stretches but, aside from having a defined role as a secondary back or coming in due to injury (ironic, if it happens), he won't ever become the lead RB and hold it for any significant amount of time. A team will never make him the lead RB and keep him there. The list of guys like Samkon Gado or Marcel Reece is incredibly long and it's the kind of list that Andre Brown belongs on. If he were to land the lead role due to injury and excel with it, it will only be a short matter of time before he is replaced.

It's more than just the "eyeball test" (even though Wilson absolutely smokes him in that). Wilson is a 1st round draft pick. If you don't think that matters, pull up a list of 1st round RBs and you'll see a very common theme. Guys on that list are given the opportunity to succeed as the main RB almost without exception and relatively early on.

There is exactly ZERO chance that Brown takes the starting job from Wilson and keeps it away from him. I'm willing to lay down any kind of odds and coin on that. Wilson will be the starter week 1. If by some chance it's Brown at that point, by year's end, it will most assuredly not be. Brown will get some carries, he may get some goalline work, and if Wilson were to get hurt for some reason, he might even start a few games and get a good number of carries and do well with it. And that'll be it.

You don't even read the post your responding to, do you? At no point did I say Brwon was the starter, in fact, I pointed out quite the opposite - that Wilson will be the lead back - and that Brown still would likely eat into his carries enough to take him out of RB1 rankings.

Again, I am not suggesting (nor have I yet) that you should dump Wilson for nothing - or even another RB2. But if you can trade for an RB1, do it.

This view, imo, is a short term one. You already assume that Wilson will be the lead back and yet are dissuaded from ranking him as an RB1 in dynasty due to the effect Brown may have to his 2013 numbers. Wilson is young, very young, and a timeshare for a year may be what the Giants have planned (then again, it may not). But unless you think that a timeshare will continue indefinitely, and there’s nothing that tells me that Brown has the talent to keep Wilson in a timeshare for too long, any effect Brown will have on Wilson’s numbers should not have a substantial effect on Wilson’s value in dynasty.

I’m not concerned about Brown in the least, nor was I concerned about Bradshaw before he got cut, but not because they won’t eat into Wilson’s production in 2013. Brown just might do that (and Bradshaw would have as well had he not gotten cut). I am not concerned about Brown (or Bradshaw before him) because 2013 doesn’t matter all that much in the grand scheme of Wilson's dynasty value as long as Wilson has a decent year. RB2 numbers in 2013 will vault Wilson, in most eyes, into the top 5 on its own. Next year, who would you rank ahead of a 23 year old Wilson if he produces as an RB2 in 2013. A 28 year old Arian Foster (ick)? A 29 year old Adrian Peterson?

Wilson has a window of 2-3 years to produce as an RB1. If he does so in any of the next 2-3 years (which I think he will), at the age of 24 or 25, his value will be at top 3 RB (where Spiller is now, only higher due to being younger) and potentially #1.

Wilson has already produced as a RB1 ...

Over his last 4 games he averaged 68 yds and a TD per game on 11 touches per game

Also averaged 110 kick return yds per game over those 4 games and returned 1 for a TD

He accounted for 178 yds and 1.25 tds per game over that span

Also led the NFL in kick Return Yardage ... I'd say he's arrived.

Kick returns mean nothing in my league and no 68 yards + a TD do not= RB1

Really ? Over 1000 yds and 16 TDs would put him right around TRich (8th) , Ridley, Gore and Jamal Charles last year and way ahead of Forte who was 12th in standard leagues. Oh yeah ... and that was on 11 touches per game and doesn't include his KRs

 

[Faust]

Just to throw a few more logs onto this fiery debate, here are a few items on Wilson from Rotoworld:

Special teams coach Tom Quinn believes David Wilson can handle an increased offensive role and kickoff returns.

Wilson was the Giants' primary kick returner last season, returning a league-high 57 kicks for an average of 26.9 yards. In Week 14 against the Saints, he returned a kick for a 97-yard score. With Ahmad Bradshaw out of the mix, Wilson is in line for a dramatically increased role on offense, sharing running back duties with Andre Brown. We're not convinced the Giants would risk such an important piece of their offense and doubt Wilson handles kickoffs in 2013.

May 11 - 12:16 PM

Source: Art Stapleton on Twitter

Giants RBs coach Jerald Ingram said David Wilson is showing improvement in pass protection.

The Giants' staff didn't trust Wilson as a blocker or in ball security as a rookie, so he got just 19 touches over the first 10 weeks. With Ahmad Bradshaw gone, the feature back job is Wilson's to lose. "We've tested him within the system, he did well a week ago, knowing what we’re doing and how to protect," Ingram said. "Now he's physically learned how to protect his quarterback, and he's looking forward to the challenge ... I'm pretty excited about where he is right now." Wilson is going to explode statistically as long as he hovers around the 17.4 touches per game Bradshaw received last year.

Apr 25 - 8:24 AM

Source: NJ.com

David Wilson is aiming to add five pounds of muscle in order to hold up in pass protection.

After playing at 205 as a rookie, Wilson is looking to play in the 208-210 range in 2013. The second-year back knows he must protect the quarterback better in order to stay on the field. "I feel more comfortable going into this season than I did last year, because I know the playbook a little bit more," said Wilson. He likely has an early leg up on Andre Brown for lead back duties.

Mar 21 - 1:17 PM

Source: Newark Star-Ledger

He will turn 22 years old on June 15th - so keep in mind that he was only 21 last year during his rookie season.

 

[Concept Coop]

Really ? Over 1000 yds and 16 TDs would put him right around TRich (8th) , Ridley, Gore and Jamal Charles last year and way ahead of Forte who was 12th in standard leagues. Oh yeah ... and that was on 11 touches per game and doesn't include his KRs

He looked good over the last 5-6 weeks But it's just not rational to project a 16 TD season for him, based on 4 games at the end of the last year, including one against--yardage wise--the worst defense in NFL history. He got 25% of his season total in yardage and 2 of his 5 TDs in that one game.

 

[Shanahanigans]

I don't get this, Brown is just a guy. On similar carries he had a higher YPC carry than someone some are touting as a top 5 RB. If he is just a guy, why did Wilson, and all his god like talent, ride the pine behind Brown until the latter got injured?

People are blinded by Wilson's draft position and youth. Seems like it could turn into a Laurence Maroney, Sammy Morris situation. I wouldn't be surprised if Wilson owners are left with their face in their palms when they see a guy they could have had for peanuts putting up the same stats as the anointed Wilson.

 

[ShaHBucks]

In the leagues that I'm in, there's a few players that seem to end up on most of my rosters. These are guys that I value far more than others and try to buy up when I can. As I don't often keep my rookie picks in leagues, it ends up being a situation where I have to trade for a guy after the fact. Wilson was going in the top 6-7 picks last year, and with rookie fever, it often costs more to obtain. The fact that he only had 71 carries and had to sit for most of the year was a Godsend. I saw this because I don't think I get most of those deals below if he played any significant amount of time. Even still, they held strong and I ended up having to pay a "premium". I put that in quotes because I overpaid by market value but still feel I underpaid overall. Here's a summary of a few leagues where I have him and how I got him: 1. Had the 1.2 and moved it for the 1.4/1.6. If I had kept the 1.2, I was taking Wilson. I moved down knowing I could get him at 1.4, which I did and then added Luck at 1.6.2. In a dev league, he was already rostered. I was lucky to make a move shortly afterward of S. Hill (with the hype) and Housler (1.5 ppr for TE league) for Wilson. This owner regrets the decision now but there were reasons for the trade at the time. In other leagues, the Wilson owners were particularly high on him (as they should be) and wouldn't move throughout the year. I kept trying over and over with above market offers and was repeatedly declined. As the year wore on, I realized that I needed to just pay and get it done because it was going to be too late if I didn't. 1) Moved Morris/Flacco for Wilson. This was after the season but was pretty easy to do.2) Moved the 1.1 this year in January straight up for him. Again, pretty easy to do.3) Moved Foster/Tate for Wilson/Bradshaw in January. This is one I know 98% of people will just shake their heads at. This is what it took to get him and wasn't an issue at all for me.4) Moved Harvin for Wilson/Jeffery. This was easily the hardest one for me as Harvin is a flat out stud. This is more of a gamble on Jeffery than it is the others. I wouldn't otherwise move Harvin for him, but I feel the gamble on Jeffery's upside made this worth it. This was more of a "push" for me with Jeffery's upside offsetting the risk of Wilson's value being lower than Harvin.5) Moved Calvin/Nicks for Julio/Wilson. This was another no-brainer for me as it combined 2 trades that I'd make. Calvin = Julio to me, but all things being equal, I'll actually take Julio at this point (discussed this elsewhere already and can link if you'd like). Moving Nicks for Wilson is easy. The funny thing is I ended up trading Wilson in this league to get DT a bit afterward so I'm not averse to moving him (even though I miss him already on that roster).6) In a league co-owned with someone else, we moved the sure thing of Ray Rice for DT/Wilson at the beginning of last year during the summer. We got roasted for that trade at the time. This was my co-owners idea but I had no problem with the move whatsoever. So to answer your question, I won't say I specifically had Wilson in my top 5 at the start of the year. But as things played themselves out, it became pretty evident that I felt more and more comfortable putting him up there and could still buy at lower prices. It didn't take much at the next level to confirm what I saw and just helped reinforce that I was making the right call. You wonder how only 71 carries could vault him up there. The simple answer is probably this: He was there all along for me and I just didn't realize it. Those 71 carries were more than enough to allow me to stick with what I thought.

I feel like David Wilson should maybe file a restraining order against you.

-_____- wow

 

[Faust]

Rotoworld:

ESPN New York confirms that Andre Brown is expected to be the Giants' goal-line back.
Brown seized the role last year, scoring eight touchdowns in just 10 games. Seven of those scores came in goal-to-go situations. Brown will serve as a handcuff to David Wilson, and will also give touchdown-seeking fantasy owners standalone value.


Source: ESPN New York

 

[bonesman]

I don't get this, Brown is just a guy. On similar carries he had a higher YPC carry than someone some are touting as a top 5 RB. If he is just a guy, why did Wilson, and all his god like talent, ride the pine behind Brown until the latter got injured?

People are blinded by Wilson's draft position and youth. Seems like it could turn into a Laurence Maroney, Sammy Morris situation. I wouldn't be surprised if Wilson owners are left with their face in their palms when they see a guy they could have had for peanuts putting up the same stats as the anointed Wilson.

But Wilson is gonna have so many more carries!!!!1!1

 

[ShaHBucks]

http://forensicfantasy.com/2013/05/fantasy-football-david-wilson-vs-andre-brown/

Nice article that kind of sums up what I think. I'd rather have the bigger/cheaper back that could get double digit TD's even as a compliment.

 

[JohnnyU]

http://forensicfantasy.com/2013/05/fantasy-football-david-wilson-vs-andre-brown/

Nice article that kind of sums up what I think. I'd rather have the bigger/cheaper back that could get double digit TD's even as a compliment.

I'll take potential stud RB over a guy wishing for goal line carries that may never come. Talent wins out in this one and Wilson will have first crack at it. I expect him to show us why he was a first rd pick.

 

[Winning IS Everything]

Just an example of how some value Wilson......

10 Team 10 player keeper league I was offered:

Greg Jennings and Darren Sproles for my David Wilson. It was a quick, easy decline for me for the following: I have AP and Spiller at RB 1&2 and prefer a home run threat at flex and I am set at WR too.

I could see a scenario where some would accept that though.