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Is Demaryius Thomas the 4th option for the Broncos? (1 Viewer)

T

Thumper

Footballguy
As a Thomas owner I'm starting to get a little concerned about the distribution of targets in Denver. In a game where P.Manning threw for over 400 yards and the team put up over 50 points, D.Thomas only had only 6 targets and 57 yards. If you look at his game logs this isn't a one time occurance.

To make matters worse W.Welker (7td's) and J.Thomas seem to be the guys that Denver looks for on the goaline...It's true Thomas has had a couple of big games this year, but it looks like his production is going to be very solid, but inconsistent.

Is he someone that one should consider trading if you are looking for consistency?

 
Why would you be worried when he had a 2Td game the week before. Manning will take what the defense is giving. Last week it was Welker and DT. This week it was Julius and Decker. I would bet that he and Welker do the deed this week. Plus, Dallas has been giving it up to every tight end they have played. Of course they would go to Julius.

 
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I own DT in 3 leagues (2 dynasty). On paper, he is the number 1 - and most talented - receiver in Denver. However, there will always be an open receiver with the number of options they have on offense and it's in the best interest of the defense that it's not Thomas.

I'm waiting on a big game to sell high on him in my redraft league (for the right price, of course) but will take the highs and lows in dynasty. In a couple of years, he will be on the end of Brock Osweiler's arm cannon when Manning, Welker and perhaps Decker are gone.

 
Thumper said:
As a Thomas owner I'm starting to get a little concerned about the distribution of targets in Denver. In a game where P.Manning threw for over 400 yards and the team put up over 50 points, D.Thomas only had only 6 targets and 57 yards. If you look at his game logs this isn't a one time occurance.

To make matters worse W.Welker (7td's) and J.Thomas seem to be the guys that Denver looks for on the goaline...It's true Thomas has had a couple of big games this year, but it looks like his production is going to be very solid, but inconsistent.

Is he someone that one should consider trading if you are looking for consistency?
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NM - thought this was about Julius Thomas.

 
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Who's more consistent that you'd rather have? Calvin Johnson is missing games, Julio is apparently hurt, Green has had 4 off games in a row, and Dez could do something extremely stupid at any moment and be suspended.

Crazy stat that should end this thread - DThomas has gone over 50 yards in every game this year. Only 4 other WRs can say the same - Julio (hurt), Torrey Smith, Antonio Brown and Garcon.

 
Just concerned about the seeming boom or bust aspect of his game. There may just be too many options in Denver for Thomas to give a consistent performace week by week.

 
I would say Brandon Carr was a factor here, with him being the only good DB in Dallas.

Wouldn't trade Demaryius, unless you're getting a stud back. Start him, every week. Gonna be ups and downs like every other WR out there, but he will get his. It's going to be a cyclical thing. As teams focus more on Welker and J.Thomas in the red-zone, expect the endzone fade routes to D.Thomas to come. As they pay more attention to Decker, expect D.Thomas to get some single coverage and burn it to the ground.

 
matttyl said:
Who's more consistent that you'd rather have? Calvin Johnson is missing games, Julio is apparently hurt, Green has had 4 off games in a row, and Dez could do something extremely stupid at any moment and be suspended.

Crazy stat that should end this thread - DThomas has gone over 50 yards in every game this year. Only 4 other WRs can say the same - Julio (hurt), Torrey Smith, Antonio Brown and Garcon.
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I'd take Dez over Demaryius in a heartbeat.

I'd still take Calvin as well, but missing games to injury does hurt.

And both Dez and Calvin laid eggs week 1. Also, as you say, Green hasn't been consistent. And now Julio may be done.

I have Demaryius in two of my three main leagues, and have been satisfied so far.

I'm happier in the league where I also have Welker, though!

 
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Snap Percentage

Demaryius Thomas - 96% - 95% - 95% - 84% - 96%

Eric Decker - 90% - 89%- 68% - 75% - 92%

Wes Welker - 79% - 65% - 67% - 64% - 92%

Targets

Demaryius Thomas - 11 - 6 - 11 - 10 - 6 (44 total)

Eric Decker - 7 - 13 - 8 - 7 - 8 (45 total)

Wes Welker - 11 - 8 - 8 - 9 - 6 (42 total)

* Julius Thomas - 7 - 9 - 4 - 4 - 12 (36 total)

* DEN RBs - (26 total)

Technically, no.

 
No, the three Denver WRs and Julius Thomas are options 1a, 1b, 1c, and 1d. If you have any of them on your team, you start them every week and take the occasional not-so great with the great.

 
early in the season, the studs will sometimes get less targets if the team can get away with it. I think you will see Thomas will get more targets in more important games going forward.

as mentioned in earlier posts. all Denver Receivers are must starts. Even against a good defense.

 
Looks like he is WR5 so far in non-ppr. Unfortunate that he isn't going to get 10+ targets a week like Calvin, but I am not looking to sell unless I get an offer that blows me away.

Peyton will throw to whoever is open, and with these receivers seems like someone always is - will probably be more weeks like this unfortunately.

IMO if you're gonna sell wait for another one of these big games - don't do it out of frustration after a week like this. He was projected as a near elite guy and is performing that way most weeks - don't sell low.

 
Thumper said:
Just concerned about the seeming boom or bust aspect of his game. There may just be too many options in Denver for Thomas to give a consistent performace week by week.
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He's the big play threat teams seem to focus on. Peyton will continue to throw to whomever is most likely to catch the ball. He hasn't had a bad game yet, just don't expect him to go over 100 every week.

 
Ghost Rider said:
No, the three Denver WRs and Julius Thomas are options 1a, 1b, 1c, and 1d. If you have any of them on your team, you start them every week and take the occasional not-so great with the great.
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:goodposting: Best approach is to own more than one.

 
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Ghost Rider said:
No, the three Denver WRs and Julius Thomas are options 1a, 1b, 1c, and 1d. If you have any of them on your team, you start them every week and take the occasional not-so great with the great.
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Yep. Given how Peyton is going crazy this year, the number of "not-so-great" games for any of them will be limited significantly.

 
even if it seems like addition of welker and julius thomas (not technically addition, but effectively same in break out year) gives him a smaller piece of pie (and even that was shown up thread to be myth), lets not forget this is shaping up to be the mother off all pies...

manning is on pace for 64 TDs, and as moleculo has noted a few times elsewhere, he is doing a lot of damage in halves... plus he is still in process of building chemistry and timing with new receiving weapons (!!!)... so while it seems like an unsustainable pace and probably is, we are in uncharted waters here... no offense has ever been better or QB more productive through first near third of season...

not as much chirping about impossible pace after five games as through two or three games...

what if he does sustain the pace?

even if thomas doesn't get more than a quarter of the TDs, but "only" a quarter, that is 16 TD...

i would go further and say that if manning does throw for 64, one of the four main options will exceed 16... and thomas is most likely...

he has to be between top 5-10 in virtually any format?

as alluded to, you probably can't get calvin for him... might rather have dez, it is close, julio looks done for year... AJ green not doing as well in recent weeks... who would you rather have?

if you want to play broncos sustaining historically improbable pace angle, and are convinced welker and julius thomas will end year similar to thomas, you could trade for them and probably get something else in return?

i'm not convinced that is the case, and therefore not looking to do that...

* 34-450-4 through five games projects to about 110-1,440-13...

 
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ryno1980 said:
Ghost Rider said:
No, the three Denver WRs and Julius Thomas are options 1a, 1b, 1c, and 1d. If you have any of them on your team, you start them every week and take the occasional not-so great with the great.
Click to expand...
:goodposting: Best approach is to own more than one.
Click to expand...
Best approach may be to own Peyton and none of the WR's.

I do own Peyton and don't have any of the WR's but if I could have any guy out of the 3 WR's it would be D Thomas, without a doubt. The guy is a monster once he gets the ball. None of the other guys on that roster offer the same combination of size, speed, and run after the catch ability. Thomas is a beast.

 
Peyton is going to throw towards the mismatch and open guy. Any guy could be the first or fourth option in any given week. Start your Broncos every week and enjoy the ride.

 
SportsGuru311 said:
Manning is an equal opportunity distributor of the ball. Thomas will get plenty of touches this year.
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Yep. There were some arguments that DT was a product of an ideal situation last season and this is partially why I didn't buy it. Manning doesn't lock onto his #1 guy like many QBs. He just takes what the defense gives him. Many times he doesn't even look DT's way. When the ball is thrown his way, they're usually good looks, but he doesn't quite get the volume of opportunities that he would with a lesser QB who just force fed him the ball all game.

 
Have a chance to trade Romo who is sitting behind Peyton for D.Thomas, was happy he had a slow week, great week to try and trade for him. One week Thomas is gonna have 4 TD, it's gonna happen.

 
EBF said:
SportsGuru311 said:
Manning is an equal opportunity distributor of the ball. Thomas will get plenty of touches this year.
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Yep. There were some arguments that DT was a product of an ideal situation last season and this is partially why I didn't buy it. Manning doesn't lock onto his #1 guy like many QBs. He just takes what the defense gives him. Many times he doesn't even look DT's way. When the ball is thrown his way, they're usually good looks, but he doesn't quite get the volume of opportunities that he would with a lesser QB who just force fed him the ball all game.
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though that said, harrison and wayne (once he was established) ALWAYS got theirs over course of a season...

other than the fact that pre-knee injury edge was light years beyond any RB on DEN roster, and dallas clark was pretty good move TE, i don't think manning ever had a 3 WR/1 TE set in IND as good as thomas, welker, decker and thomas in DEN...

so agreed, he is probably less likely to lock on to thomas like he used to seemingly lock on to harrison and wayne in IND...

as many recall, consensus was that welker would impact on decker more than thomas... that may be true... but from the vantage point of pre-season, i don't think anybody foresaw the extent to which julius thomas would break out...

due to the giant overall numbers, several will put up great season numbers... but because of the addition of TWO more targets into the mix relative to last year (welker plus julius thomas hadn't broken out yet), there may be more week-to-week volatility on TDs... though it was pointed out that DT was only four or five WRs in NFL this year to get at least 50-60 receiving yards in every game.

 
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Thumper said:
Just concerned about the seeming boom or bust aspect of his game. There may just be too many options in Denver for Thomas to give a consistent performace week by week.
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every wr is like that... this thread is stupid.... DT is a stud and will be top 5 or so.... CLOSE THREAD

 
matttyl said:
Who's more consistent that you'd rather have? Calvin Johnson is missing games, Julio is apparently hurt, Green has had 4 off games in a row, and Dez could do something extremely stupid at any moment and be suspended.

Crazy stat that should end this thread - DThomas has gone over 50 yards in every game this year. Only 4 other WRs can say the same - Julio (hurt), Torrey Smith, Antonio Brown and Garcon.
Click to expand...
This should really put it to bed.

Your perception that DT is "boom or bust" is off. It looks that way because it seems like every week, some Bronco (or two) has a gigantic game, and if it isn't your guy, you feel slighted. But even when it isn't DT, he's still producing something.

He hasn't been boom or bust at all. He's been boom or solid. And that's the best you can ever hope for unless you somehow drafted Jerry Rice from 1987.

 
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Bob Magaw said:
even if it seems like addition of welker and julius thomas (not technically addition, but effectively same in break out year) gives him a smaller piece of pie (and even that was shown up thread to be myth), lets not forget this is shaping up to be the mother off all pies...
Click to expand...
I think the Broncos should name their offense this.

 
Man of Zen said:
matttyl said:
Who's more consistent that you'd rather have? Calvin Johnson is missing games, Julio is apparently hurt, Green has had 4 off games in a row, and Dez could do something extremely stupid at any moment and be suspended.

Crazy stat that should end this thread - DThomas has gone over 50 yards in every game this year. Only 4 other WRs can say the same - Julio (hurt), Torrey Smith, Antonio Brown and Garcon.
Click to expand...
This should really put it to bed.

Your perception that DT is "boom or bust" is off. It looks that way because it seems like every week, some Bronco (or two) has a gigantic game, and if it isn't your guy, you feel slighted. But even when it isn't DT, he's still producing something.

He hasn't been boom or bust at all. He's been boom or solid. And that's the best you can ever hope for unless you somehow drafted Jerry Rice from 1987.
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Exactly.

A bad game for DT is 5 catches for 55 yds? I will take that.

As I said in a Jordy Nelson thread, great QBs exploit certain mismatches.......with Peyton, he can pick and choose that matchup. Sometimes it's going to Demariyus a lot. Another time it's going to Juilus. Or Welker. Or Decker. Or even the RBs. Just be lucky that the pie is SO large, that a bad game for DT is something like 5/55/0.

 
IN my standard PPR, Demaryius Thomas is WR3, Welker is WR4, and Decker is WR13 and if Julius Thomas was a WR, he would be WR6. Basically, you are getting what you paid for in a WR1 in Thomas. You just tend to feel the grass is greener when eye-balling the other guys who are getting WR1-2 stats out of their WRs that they drafted in the 3rd, 5th and 16th rounds.

 
Peyton will hit the open guy. But it's totally not unpredictable. Some teams reasonably contain wideouts but are susceptible over the middle to TE's or Welker/Cruz types. The Chargers/Gates had just torched the Cowboys. Easy so see that Peyton would salivate over the prospects of isolating Julius last week. Won't be the case every week. Defenses have to pick their poison.

 
How does this week shape up against the Jags? Anyone worried that this game will not likely be a shootout, hence keeping DT's numbers fairly low?

 
Sweet Love said:
IN my standard PPR, Demaryius Thomas is WR3, Welker is WR4, and Decker is WR13 and if Julius Thomas was a WR, he would be WR6. Basically, you are getting what you paid for in a WR1 in Thomas. You just tend to feel the grass is greener when eye-balling the other guys who are getting WR1-2 stats out of their WRs that they drafted in the 3rd, 5th and 16th rounds.
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Exactly.

In my main league (12, standard, 3-wide) I took D.Thomas 2.11 and Welker 4.11. I'm loving those two (obviously).

In another league (same setup) I took D.Thomas 3.04.

And my "feeling" about D.Thomas if much lower in the league where I took him 5 picks later. For precisely the reason you stated. I look at last week where Denver scored 51 points and ask why the heck Thomas scored <6 points. You just feel left out when your Denver WR (or Julius) gets left out of a massive week, even though that isn't really a fair way of looking at it.

 
Sweet Love said:
IN my standard PPR, Demaryius Thomas is WR3, Welker is WR4, and Decker is WR13 and if Julius Thomas was a WR, he would be WR6. Basically, you are getting what you paid for in a WR1 in Thomas. You just tend to feel the grass is greener when eye-balling the other guys who are getting WR1-2 stats out of their WRs that they drafted in the 3rd, 5th and 16th rounds.
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This sums up the psychology of it perfectly IMO. Receivers seem to generally be high variance from week to week - easy to be resentful when you are sitting and watching your early pick lose targets to someone who went 3-4 rounds later. It's pretty normal though.

It's funny to think about how many people try to avoid multiple receivers from the same team - imagine a team that was starting both Thomas's, Welker, and Decker every week.

 
Man of Zen said:
munygon2 said:
How does this week shape up against the Jags? Anyone worried that this game will not likely be a shootout, hence keeping DT's numbers fairly low?
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Somebody's got to reel in those five first-quarter TD receptions. :shrug:
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I actually like the WRs this week - Broncos treat them as an extension of the running game, with the short passes and screens. I'm more concerned with Julius Thomas than Demaryius this week.

 
munygon2 said:
How does this week shape up against the Jags? Anyone worried that this game will not likely be a shootout, hence keeping DT's numbers fairly low?
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I believe they will be in victory formation on offense mid-1st quarter. So I believe no Denver WRs should be started in this matchup.

 
Sinn Fein said:
Man of Zen said:
munygon2 said:
How does this week shape up against the Jags? Anyone worried that this game will not likely be a shootout, hence keeping DT's numbers fairly low?
Click to expand...
Somebody's got to reel in those five first-quarter TD receptions. :shrug:
Click to expand...
I actually like the WRs this week - Broncos treat them as an extension of the running game, with the short passes and screens. I'm more concerned with Julius Thomas than Demaryius this week.
Click to expand...
Why would you be concerned with jt?

 
weebs said:
Sinn Fein said:
Man of Zen said:
munygon2 said:
How does this week shape up against the Jags? Anyone worried that this game will not likely be a shootout, hence keeping DT's numbers fairly low?
Click to expand...
Somebody's got to reel in those five first-quarter TD receptions. :shrug:
Click to expand...
I actually like the WRs this week - Broncos treat them as an extension of the running game, with the short passes and screens. I'm more concerned with Julius Thomas than Demaryius this week.
Click to expand...
Why would you be concerned with jt?
Click to expand...
Just a gut feel that he won't be needed to move the chains. I think they will utilize the WRs in bubble screens, and quick slants to supplement the running game this week. I think they try to spread the field, and burn some clock on high-percentage short passes. Certainly possible that he gets a RZ look.

I'm starting J. Thomas over Gronk, but not expecting a big game: 4-40

 
I disagree, jt s thrown screens, quick routes, and flat routes. Jax is top 7 in points given up to te. 5-100-1

 
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