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Is it me, or are QBs very difficult to rank this year? (1 Viewer)

King of the Jungle

Footballguy
For me, it is Peyton Manning and then 31 question marks. Take FBGs top 15 (redraft) for example:

PEYTON MANNING

Matt Hasselbeck - DJ been hurt for extended time period, Hutch gone

Tom Brady - todays weapons: Reche Caldwell, Ben Watson, Troy Brown

Donovan McNabb - young weapons, no proven WRs, spare me the Baskett story

Eli Manning - extremely tough division, rapport with targets questionable

Carson Palmer - knee

Marc Bulger - first time out of the Martz system

Michael Vick -

Jake Delhomme - seems to be one of the safer picks

Drew Bledsoe - Tony Romo? Maybe not, but he may be on a short leash. TO = trouble

Daunte Culpepper - knee

Jake Plummer - Cutler keeps that up and he may be at the helm

Aaron Brooks - OAK looks like a girls flag football team trying to move the ball, WRs not liking Shell

Trent Green - herm edwards

Brett Favre - "Most talented team I have been on", Favres addicted to painkillers again

I think out of this mess I would target Delhomme in the 7th-8th in redraft.

Do you FBGers feel pretty solid about your rankings for QBs this season? I would love to hear about it.

 
Agreed. To me it seems as if there's a #1 and then a 6, 7, 8,... There definitely seems to be more uncertainty this year.

 
I would be curious to see who everyones top 10 is, and why. Post'em if you want.

For every top ten posted, I will donate a $1 towards my beer fund.

It is for a good cause people, let's see them!

 
I would be curious to see who everyones top 10 is, and why. Post'em if you want. For every top ten posted, I will donate a $1 towards my beer fund. It is for a good cause people, let's see them!
It's for a good cause...why not.1. duh2. Palmer3. Delhomme4. Hasselbeck5. Culpepper6. McNabb7. Bulger8. Bledsoe9. Brady10. Eli11. Plummer12. Brees
 
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ManningBradyPalmerCulpepperHassDelhommeVickBulgerPlummer BreesHonorable Mentions: Simms, Rivers, and Eli.
So you put Eli in HM? I know he's got a tough schedule, but didn't have an easy one last year and has a full year under his belt. I personally like him better than Vick, Plummer, Culpepper and Brees but that's just mud.
 
I can't believe how high people are ranking Culpepper. He sucked BEFORE getting hurt and suffered a very significant injury.

IMO safer picks (Hass, Delhomme etc) are the way to go this year, then maybe take a flyer on a higher upside guy like Eli (or, OK, Culpepper) second.

 
I'm seeing McNabb drop in most of my drafts. In my last draft I took him as QB #12 after he slipped to the end of the 6th round. I think rounds 6-7 is where you should draft a QB this year as guys like Bulger, McNabb, and Delhomme are slipping to that area.

 
1. Manning

2. Bulger

3. Hasselbeck

4. McNabb

5. Eli Manning

6. Brady

7. Palmer

8. Delhomme

9. Rivers

10. Plummer

 
I can't believe how high people are ranking Culpepper. He sucked BEFORE getting hurt and suffered a very significant injury.

IMO safer picks (Hass, Delhomme etc) are the way to go this year, then maybe take a flyer on a higher upside guy like Eli (or, OK, Culpepper) second.
I can't believe how low people are ranking him for exactly the same reasons. Yes, he is coming back from injury, but appears to be well on his way to recovery. Yes, he no longer is throwing to Randy Moss, but I don't think that is the sole reason for his drop in production last season. I am more apt to look at his historical body of evidence and see him as a good choice. For example, if you take his per game averages over his entire career (including last season), the numbers say he'll go:

320 for 512 for 3,968 yards, 26 TDs, and 16 INts

480 rush yards and 5 or 6 TDs.

Even 75% of those numbers would be a nice season, especially considering where he can be drafted...



3000 yards

20 TDs

12 Ints

360 rush yards and 3 or 4 TDs

 
Sorry but adding up career stats and dividing by # of years played is a meaningless stat. Based on that logic, Favre should be ranked top 3 easy.

What is meaningful is what he has done most recently and how his situation has changed and how that could/should impact him. ie here is what I consider meaningful:

- He suffered a VERY SERIOUS injury. Yeah he's looking great blah blah blah....they say that about nearly every player who suffers even a bad injury like this but rarely do they bounce right back the next year.

- Again, and probably most telling to me, he sucked before the injury. ie he has not really proven he can get it done w/o Moss. If anything, he's more proven the opposite.

- His OL is questionable.

Now in his favor he appear to have a good receiving corps (although I'm not yet sold on Chambers as much as most) and up n comer at RB as well. And Saban is a very good coach. But there's too much risk IMO to rank him anywhere near that high.

 
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Sorry but adding up career stats and dividing by # of years played is a meaningless stat. Based on that logic, Favre should be ranked top 3 easy.What is meaningful is what he has done most recently and how his situation has changed and how that could/should impact him. ie here is what I consider meaningful:- He suffered a VERY SERIOUS injury. Yeah he's looking great blah blah blah - they say that about nearly every player who suffers even a bad injury like this but rarely do they bounce right back the next year.- Again, he sucked before the injury. ie he has not really proven he can get it done w/o Moss. If anything, he's more proven the opposite.- His OL is questionable.Now in his favor he appear to have a good receiving corps (although I'm not yet sold on Chambers as much as most) and up n comer at RB as well. And Saban is a very good coach. But there's too much risk IMO to rank him anywhere near that high.
The numbers I was working with for my hypothesis don't just account for his best moments. I agree that extrapolating numbers and using that as meaningful prediction is silly, which is why I put in the 75% qualifier. If you think (1) being in a new system (2) having an injury and (3) not having Randy Moss will decrease his production vs. that of his career by greater than 25%, then we will have to agree to disagree. This is a guy that has finished 1st or 2nd among Qbs in 4 of the 6 years he's been a starter, and in one of the "missing" years, he was injured. I simply don't think missing Randy Moss and being in a new-ish system are enough to have him drop off the face of the earth.Colin
 
I would be curious to see who everyones top 10 is, and why. Post'em if you want.

For every top ten posted, I will donate a $1 towards my beer fund.

It is for a good cause people, let's see them!
My Top 10-1. Peyton Manning - By far, explosive offense, no injury concerns, easy #1.

2. Matt Hasselbeck - In my opinion, this is an easy pick for number 2. Was a top QB last season with Bobby Engram and JJ as his top receivers for a good chunck of the year. No way Alexander gets all those TD's again, he may be close to Manning in my opinion.

BIG GAP

3. Tom Brady - His WR's have never been that great, he will make do.

4. Eli Manning - Is starting to look earily similar to Peyton.

5. Donovan McNabb - Big question mark at WR, but is playing great so far with what he has.

6. Drew Bledsoe - With Owens, Glenn, and Wittin, could be a great value for someone. This offense is bound to get up and down the field.

7. Marc Bulger - Injuries are a concern but the defense will play bad enough to force him to keep the ball in the air.

8. Carson Palmer - These knee injuries scare me, especially first year back.

9. Michael Vick - Another year in the offense and I think he has his best year yet.

10. Jake Delhomme - With Johnson, this guy has every weapon he needs. Will they need to throw the ball with this defense?

 
It's just you.I really don't see it being any more difficult than any other year.
I think with the injuries, change of scenaries, it is more difficult. I am really changing my mindset to draft the "safer" pick this year (and focus on RB & WR) vs. the big names.
 
For me, it is Peyton Manning and then 31 question marks. Take FBGs top 15 (redraft) for example:PEYTON MANNINGMatt Hasselbeck - DJ been hurt for extended time period, Hutch gone
He lots a whole lot more than D-Jax last year. How'd he wind up doing?
Michael Vick -
I like the lack of questions. If he's healthy, I agree that there really aren't any questions surrounding Vick. He's the one QB who is least reliant on his supporting cast.
Jake Plummer - Cutler keeps that up and he may be at the helm
Cutler WILL NOT be at the helm this year, unless Denver is completely eliminated (and even then I don't think it's likely except maybe in week 17), or Plummer is hurt. Cutler is a complete 100% non-issue this season.
Brett Favre - "Most talented team I have been on", Favres addicted to painkillers again
Cute, but this is another situation where I really feel there are no real questions surrounding it.I've got Manning, Hass, Vick, Plummer, and Favre as pretty safe picks to perform to their average draft position (or, at worst, 2-3 slots lower). I'll add Brooks to that list, because while he has a lot of questions around him, his draft position is so low that it still shouldn't be much of a problem outperforming. I really think, of the bunch, Plummer's looking like the most undervalued commodity right now. I also don't get all the love for Delhomme. He's never finished higher than 7th.
 
For me, it is Peyton Manning and then 31 question marks. Take FBGs top 15 (redraft) for example:

PEYTON MANNING

Matt Hasselbeck - DJ been hurt for extended time period, Hutch gone
He lots a whole lot more than D-Jax last year. How'd he wind up doing?Not sure what you mean: "He lots a whole lot more (your quote)".. Anyway, they lost Jurevious, new Burelson, prolonged kneee injury to DJ, lost Hutch. Not hard to understand.

Michael Vick -
I like the lack of questions. If he's healthy, I agree that there really aren't any questions surrounding Vick. He's the one QB who is least reliant on his supporting cast.I was saving dessert for last and forgot to mention how I dont think Mike Vick is a sound NFL QB.

Jake Plummer - Cutler keeps that up and he may be at the helm
Cutler WILL NOT be at the helm this year, unless Denver is completely eliminated (and even then I don't think it's likely except maybe in week 17), or Plummer is hurt. Cutler is a complete 100% non-issue this season.Plummer has his least talented running game since he enetered Bronco country. He also has a 60 year old #1 WR, and a knee-rehabbing #2 (with little depth). I see the Broncos struggling this year and the future (Cutler) being introduced to the NFL.

Brett Favre - "Most talented team I have been on", Favres addicted to painkillers again
Cute, but this is another situation where I really feel there are no real questions surrounding it.Cute, fine, cute. BUT, Farve (IMO) is nearing the end of his career, his o-line is the worst it has ever been, his RBs are the worst they have ever been, his WRs are the worst they have ever been...do I need to continue?

I've got Manning, Hass, Vick, Plummer, and Favre as pretty safe picks to perform to their average draft position (or, at worst, 2-3 slots lower). I'll add Brooks to that list, because while he has a lot of questions around him, his draft position is so low that it still shouldn't be much of a problem outperforming. I really think, of the bunch, Plummer's looking like the most undervalued commodity right now. I also don't get all the love for Delhomme. He's never finished higher than 7th.
*refer to the bold & underlined
 
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Not sure what you mean: "He lots a whole lot more (your quote)".. Anyway, they lost Jurevious, new Burelson, prolonged kneee injury to DJ, lost Hutch. Not hard to understand.
It was a tpyo. I meant to say that he LOST a whole lot more than Jackson last year. I seem to recall them losing their entire WR corps to injury. I also think the fact that Hutch is gone is more than offset by the fact that Shaun Alexander isn't going to score nearly 30 TDs again this season. And Burleson being new is hardly a bad thing- if he's crap, the Seahawks can still roll out Jackson/Engram, which is an improvement over their WR corps of Jurevicious/Engram from last season... and if Burleson is any good at all, that's an automatic upgrade. I see this as a situation that has clearly and unequivocably (in my mind at least) improved from last year.
I was saving dessert for last and forgot to mention how I dont think Mike Vick is a sound NFL QB.
I don't think he's a sound NFL QB, either. I think he's a great fantasy QB though. He hasn't finished the season worse than 12th, and he HAS finished as high as 3rd. Plus, as I said, he's not reliant on the talent around him- he can take losses to his OL and WRs the best, because he has a source of fantasy production that's entirely independent of them.At the very least, there's no way in hell that Vick's position is worse than it was over the last two seasons when he finished 12th and 10th.
Plummer has his least talented running game since he enetered Bronco country. He also has a 60 year old #1 WR, and a knee-rehabbing #2 (with little depth). I see the Broncos struggling this year and the future (Cutler) being introduced to the NFL.
Actually, the least talented running game Plummer had was Droughns/Griffin. That was the season that Plummer threw for 4,000 yards and 27 scores (both Denver records). That 60 year old WR was a pro bowler last year, the rehabbing #2 has been looking PHENOMINAL and unbothered by the injury in the slightest, and if you'd been reading the camp reports you'd know that Denver is flush with more WR depth than they've probably ever had in their history, with Watts, Kircus, and Marshall all capable of being very credible #3s.As for Denver struggling... well, Denver's had one (barely) losing season under Shanahan- a year when the lost a HoF QB and a potential HoF RB, and started a first-year starting QB. And they still went 6-10. They're one of four teams to make the playoffs for three straight seasons (New England, Seattle, Indy). They were without question one of the three best teams last season, put up a 13-3 record despite facing one of the hardest schedules in the entire NFL (actually, THE hardest in terms of opponent winning percentage), and made it to the AFC Championship game. They've lost only Trevor Pryce, Mike Anderson, and Jeb Putzier from that team (and have added far more than that in return in Walker alone). Since coming to Denver, Plummer has more wins than any QB except Manning and Brady, despite missing time in his first season. I'd really like to hear your reasoning as to why Denver is going to be out of playoff contention before the last week or two of the season this year.In fact, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Plummer start and play the entire season for Denver next year, too. And if he doesn't, that means that this year is basically a contract year... and we know how much of a motivator contract years are.Actually, this whole spiel pretty nicely illustrates why I think that Plummer presents the best value on the entire board this year.
Cute, fine, cute. BUT, Farve (IMO) is nearing the end of his career, his o-line is the worst it has ever been, his RBs are the worst they have ever been, his WRs are the worst they have ever been...do I need to continue?
His RBs are better than they were last year. His WRs are just as good as they were last year. His OL is just as bad as it was last year. He still finished 13th in the NFL last year. I think you most certainly DO need to continue.
 
I think Bulger could be top three this year. Everyone forgets that Linehan throws insde the 10 (see Chambers red zone targets last year). Contrary to popular belief, Martz rushed more inside the 10.

This could translate to big numbers for Bulger.

 
For me, it is Peyton Manning and then 31 question marks. Take FBGs top 15 (redraft) for example:PEYTON MANNINGMatt Hasselbeck - DJ been hurt for extended time period, Hutch goneTom Brady - todays weapons: Reche Caldwell, Ben Watson, Troy BrownDonovan McNabb - young weapons, no proven WRs, spare me the Baskett storyEli Manning - extremely tough division, rapport with targets questionableCarson Palmer - kneeMarc Bulger - first time out of the Martz systemMichael Vick - Jake Delhomme - seems to be one of the safer picksDrew Bledsoe - Tony Romo? Maybe not, but he may be on a short leash. TO = troubleDaunte Culpepper - kneeJake Plummer - Cutler keeps that up and he may be at the helmAaron Brooks - OAK looks like a girls flag football team trying to move the ball, WRs not liking ShellTrent Green - herm edwardsBrett Favre - "Most talented team I have been on", Favres addicted to painkillers againI think out of this mess I would target Delhomme in the 7th-8th in redraft. Do you FBGers feel pretty solid about your rankings for QBs this season? I would love to hear about it.
I agree with you 100%. I've been thinking that I like Delhomme after Manning (not right after mind you). He could be the best bargain QB in FF this year. I do like Bulger. More worried about his injury history than a change in systems.
 
I think Bulger could be top three this year. Everyone forgets that Linehan throws insde the 10 (see Chambers red zone targets last year). Contrary to popular belief, Martz rushed more inside the 10.This could translate to big numbers for Bulger.
I completely agree. His ppg average is outstanding. And I think Linehan is better for him than Martz.
 
I think Linehan is going to go a long way towards making sure that Marc Bulger is still standing under his own power at the end of the season. I definitely like him this year, since he's going to have a coach that actually cares about protecting him.

I really don't get all of this Delhomme love, though. He's never in his career finished higher than 7th (he's finished 15th, 7th, and 12th). He's currently being drafted as the #9 overall QB. Yet somehow, everyone keeps identifying him as this great value pick? I just don't see it- ESPECIALLY not over Michael Vick, Aaron Brooks, and Jake Plummer (or even Trent Green, for that matter).

 
There is the belief out there that since Manning never actually finishes first, he can't or won't...again. But it's taken career years to beat him. Don't see that happening this year, I think he finishes first by a ways...

But yeah, after him, it's quite a muddled picture for me. :loco:

 
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I really don't get all of this Delhomme love, though. He's never in his career finished higher than 7th (he's finished 15th, 7th, and 12th). He's currently being drafted as the #9 overall QB. Yet somehow, everyone keeps identifying him as this great value pick? I just don't see it- ESPECIALLY not over Michael Vick, Aaron Brooks, and Jake Plummer (or even Trent Green, for that matter).
I'll venture to guess that it's because people finally believe in him as a WINNING quarterback. The guy almost won a Superbowl, and has since proved that was no fluke. He's made #1 WR's out of names people didn't think could get there. However, fantasy-wise you are right and that may be where the confusion lies in the masses, which is no surprise. Thinking of a reasonable comparison, and Aikman comes to mind (not that he is THAT good).
 
1. P Manning

2. Bledsoe

3. Hasselbeck

4. Brooks

5. Palmer

6. Delhomme

7. Brady

8. Rivers

9. E Manning

10. Bulger

11. Green

12. Vick

13. Brunell

14. Big Ben

15. Plummer

Edit: Left out McNabb by mistake. I put him in there at #10.

 
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1. Peyton Manning - He's the surest thing in all of Fantasy Football. Although, in 4-PPPT leagues, he's never been the best fantasy QB. Which is incredible if you think about it. This year, I do not see their defense being as good as last year with the losses of Thorton and Tripplet, which means more passing. Also, without James, they will be passing more in the red-zone.

2. Matt Hasslebeck - They still have a very easy schedule. The addition of Nate Burelson and the health of their other Receivers mean improved weapons for him to utilize. Finally, the loss of Hutchinson will make the running game less efficient, meaning a shift of the Touchdowns to the passing game.

3. Donovan McNabb - He's in the best shape of his career, so expect the rushing numbers to come back. He also has plenty of weapons to keep his passing totals up. Brown's finish was very strong, and should be the best WR he's had, except for "That Player." Overall, his supporting cast is stronger than the pre-'04 teams were, and McNabb is extra motivated.

4. Michael Vick - This is the first year that he's ever had a rapport with his Receivers, other than Crumpler. He's never had the same starting WRs in back to back seasons, which is truly astounding considering how important that is to a QB's development. Also, according to everything said out of the Falcons organization say they are going to open up the passing game, more shotgun, more aggressive, which is always good in Fantasy.

5. Daunte Culpepper - This move helped Culpepper's fantasy value so much. He's in a very familar offensive system, as Mularkey choose not to change from Linehan's system. He also has a very well coached O-Line. But most importantly, he has a stud WR who is an elite deep threat, and a stud Tight End. For his ADP, he is a tremendous value.

6. Jake Plummer - He has a very favorable schedule, he has two very good Wide Receivers, he also has a very athletic Tight End they brought in. Also, do not underestimate the "Jon Kitna/Drew Brees factor." With Cutler behind him as the so-called "QBotF," Plummer will be motivated, as the aformentioned Jon Kitna of '03 and Drew Brees of '04 were.

7. Marc Bulger - Linehan's offensive system is as productive as Martz's has been, without the crazy. He still has top notch weapons, plays in a dome. Except now he wont be killed by opposing defenses, and has good pass receiver Tight Ends.

8. Carson Palmer - Palmer himself has said he isn't 100%, he wont be 100% this season. With a rediculously difficult schedule, his knee, and the likely possibility of a more conservative offense to protect him, don't be the sucker who takes Palmer too early.

9. Jake Delhomme - He has very good Receivers, but he runs hot/cold. Which means, he'll help you win some weeks. In others he will have 3-turnovers. Either way, he should be better this year, than last, and would be a solid starter for the guy who waits on QB while loading up on WR/RB.

10. Tom Brady Last year was an abberation, mark my words. He's been a low-end #1 for all these years, then he unexpectedly becomes an elite Fantasy QB. Will he continue? No, and I have reasons. First and foremost, it is because he isn't in a situation that lends itself to big fantasy numbers. His passing weapons are mediocre at best, and he has two stud backs and a healthy O-Line. This has Power run game written all over it. He will be back to his merely okay numbers.

11. David Carr One word to descripe David Carr; underrated. Consider that in '04, a season of spiked QB numbers, he still finished 14th. He should easily put up better numbers than that year. Unlike that year he has a legitimate Receiver besides Andre Johnson (1), he has a legitimate pass catching Tight End (2), and is in a system that favors his talent, and will mask the O-Line, (3) which is better this year I might add (4).

12. Ben Roethlisberger - People look at his mediocre numbers, but fail to realize that in a full season he would have put up 27 Touchdowns and 3,200 total yards. Also, without "The Bus," the Steelers will be forced to do what Ben has asked for, a more diverse passing attack.

13. Drew Bledsoe - TO this, TO that. He isn't a good fit for the Cowboys offense, he is a prototype WCO receiver, in this offense he wont be able to rack up the "YAC" he's famous for. Not only that he hasn't even been able to learn the offense in Training Camp. Enough with TO, another concern; the O-Line is still awful. Bledsoe will continue to suffer, and commit tons of turnovers, and continue his momentum from last year where he struggled down the stretch.

14. Drew Brees - Joe Horn is slowing down, Stallworth and Henderson haven't impress, and the O-Line is terrible. What redeems Brees is that the defense is even worse, which means passing, passing and more passing. Also that Reggie Bush guy can catch the football, last time I checked.

15. Eli Manning - Talk about overrated here. He padded his stats last year with two feastings against the not so vaunted Charger and Ram secondaries. When he faced real defenses he was awful. His problem is not mental, it's mechanical, he isn't able to throw an accurate pass and it will take years to fine tune that. Also, if Tiki stumbles, watch out Brett Favre, we may have a new contender for most Interceptions. Against the strongest schedule in the NFL, the '06 Manning will look like the end of last season Eli Manning.

HM. Mark Brunell - He has nice weapons, and a stellar coordinator, just try not to rely on him as your starter. He'd be best used playing the matchups, in tandem with another QB.

Bust. Trent Green - Edwards' three yards and a cloud will hurt the passing game, the loss of Roaf will hurt the passing game. His yardage was the only thing that kept him from being mediocre, without Saunders, kiss Green's elite Fantasy Run goodbye.

 
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P Manning

Hasselbeck

McNabb

Brady

Bulger

Culpepper

Delhomme

Green

E Manning

Plummer

As you can see I'm more optimistic about Culpepper's health than I am about Palmer's...

 

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