Is it worth lusting after DEN RB in a dynasty league? (1 Viewer)

[JohnnyU]

Come on guys/gals, this is not rocket science, but if you guess right from one year to the next it could help you to a title, then go for it. I only play in dynasty leagues, so I can only offer my take from that perspective. In a dynasty league I don't think taking any Denver RB early is a wise move as long as Shanahan is the coach. Yes, if you can guess right in the later rounds it's a great move, but those of you who take Mike Bell in the 2nd or 3rd rd, or Bell in the 4th are fooling yourself. Even if Bell or Bell gets 1000 yds and 8 tds, you could find someone who looks just like them in the 2nd, 3rd, or 4th rd. This is not rocket science. I think those in redraft leagues has a better chance of getting lightning in a bottle with either Bell than those in dynasty leagues.

 

[Hellfire Snail]

Maybe.

 

[JohnnyU]

Big Mystery. Last year both Anderson and Bell are 1000 yd rushers, so the Denver RB has that much appeal to everyone. So if Mike Bell is the starter he has that appeal, and Tatum Bell will do no worse than he did last year, which is 1000 yds and x number of TDs. The only thing you don't care to remember is that Mike Bell was undrafted for a reason. He's slow and fumbles a lot. Don't tell me that an undrafted RB from Arizona is going to be a savior in Denver when they already have a RB that looks just like him only faster. Also, don't tell me that he will be the RB of choice in 2007 for Denver when it's a proven fact that their coach loves to add 50,000 new RBs every year.

 

[Portis 26]

This whole Shanahan-loves-a-different-RB-every-year thing actually is a fairly recent phenomenon. Before, Terrell Davis was his guy... until he got hurt. Then injuries to TD forced him to use Olandis Gary and Mike Anderson. But then once Clinton Portis came along, it seemed like the RB position in Denver would be set for years. Until he got traded, that is. I guess what I'm saying is, I don't think Shanahan goes with a different RB just for the sake of it. If he had a quality starter like Portis or Davis he would stick with them. It's because he doesn't have a clear #1 that he's forced to experiment. If the Broncos do manage to find a long-term successor to Davis and Portis, then there wouldn't be this annual trading camp circus.

 

[JohnnyU]

My guess is that this topic is the most serious topic in fantasy football, bar none. At least from all the Denver threads for both redraft and dynasty leagues it is. It is time we understand that maybe Denver RBs aren't worth it unless they are obtained cheap. I mean really cheap.

 

[JohnnyU]

This whole Shanahan-loves-a-different-RB-every-year thing actually is a fairly recent phenomenon. Before, Terrell Davis was his guy... until he got hurt. Then injuries to TD forced him to use Olandis Gary and Mike Anderson. But then once Clinton Portis came along, it seemed like the RB position in Denver would be set for years. Until he got traded, that is. I guess what I'm saying is, I don't think Shanahan goes with a different RB just for the sake of it. If he had a quality starter like Portis or Davis he would stick with them. It's because he doesn't have a clear #1 that he's forced to experiment. If the Broncos do manage to find a long-term successor to Davis and Portis, then there wouldn't be this annual trading camp circus.

Sure, it wasn't the initial intent, but that's the way it has become. I only know what I see, and I see a man obessed with proving that he can plug in my grandmother at RB to prove what a genius he is.

 

[The_U]

JU - I am absolutely killing my brain over this guy. I have the #3 pick in a keeper league that traditionally hoards rookie RBs (draft Sunday). With Bush and Maroney all but gone I am quickly running out of time and am uninspired by Addai, DeAngelo and LenDale.

Rookie RBs are worth more in this league than "just RBs". If you can stash the right guy, he's worth his weight in gold in trades mid-season where you can often catch a guy already in the hole ready to unload quality veterans for "the next great thing" at RB.

With little inspiration for the big trio of remaining rookies I am strongly leaning towards throwing caution to the wind and swinging for the fences with Mike Bell. Shanahan hasn't ruined one of my fantasy seasons in ages and dagnabbit, Bell looks downright awesome in that offense. Remember - there was was a day when people said, "Terrell WHO?" in regards to a Denver RB. Stranger things have happened in the NFL than Mike Bell erupting and setting the league on its ear. I also like to remember that one of the things that makes NFL coaches well, NFL coaches is their EGO, whether that ego be repressed or expressed, it exists. From Tony Dungy's mild-mannered approach to Bill Parcells' bravado, ego drives many if not all NFL head coaches.

I truly believe that Mike Shanahan fancies himself as a starmaker at RB, and few can argue. Outside of Portis, who is a special talent, no one who excelled in the Denver system went on to enjoy similar successes as they did in Denver. Sure Droughns is a solid NFL RB, but he'll never be as good as he was that one glorious season he was the Broncos lead dog. No one else has done anything outside of the Mile High City. Shanahan said something recently to the effect that it took Mike Bell about 1/6 of the time it took TD to gain his [shanny's] trust and he closed the statement by saying, "I trust Mike Bell."

Yes, we should all take that with a grain of salt - who hasn't been burned by Shanahan at one point or another? - but I do believe that one day he will pull a rabbit out of his hat again, and why not Mike Bell? Guys (and gals), the kid's looked great, he 'gets' the system - doesn't dance like Tatum and again, like another guy who once dominated the upper echelon of the fantasy RB rankings, he's all but unknown, and was certainly not awesome in college. I guess I'll play devil's advocate to the dynasty prognosticators, including Bloom, whose opinion I value HIGHLY, when it comes to Mike Bell: Why Mike Bell? Why NOT Mike Bell?

 

[Donnybrook]

I am really starting to wonder if it is worth it. Per KFFL:

Broncos | Team reportedly interested in R. Moats

Mon, 21 Aug 2006 21:46:36 -0700

Bob Brookover, of The Philadelphia Inquirer, reports the Denver Broncos are interested in Philadelphia Eagles RB Ryan Moats. It was previously reported that the Eagles had interest in Broncos WR Ashley Lelie and the Eagles could part with Moats if they are concerned WR Todd Pinkston (Achilles') will be unable to recover from his foot problems.

 

[brakeyawself]

I am really starting to wonder if it is worth it. Per KFFL:Broncos | Team reportedly interested in R. MoatsMon, 21 Aug 2006 21:46:36 -0700Bob Brookover, of The Philadelphia Inquirer, reports the Denver Broncos are interested in Philadelphia Eagles RB Ryan Moats. It was previously reported that the Eagles had interest in Broncos WR Ashley Lelie and the Eagles could part with Moats if they are concerned WR Todd Pinkston (Achilles') will be unable to recover from his foot problems.

I dont think Moats gets the nod over Bell or Bell honestly. Id actually be a little confused by this trade unless they want a new RB3, or Tatum isnt sticking around.

 

[No. 16]

Terrell Davis was a 6th round pick and wasn't even his college teams starting RB.

To dismiss Mike Bell because he is undrafted would be a huge mistake. That he holds the #1 RB position this close to the season is too tough to ignore.

 

[BL Titans]

roll the dice with Mike Bell .......... what have you got to lose ?

JJ Arrington is proof that even the can't miss ones ....... miss

 

[nygiants56]

I am really starting to wonder if it is worth it. Per KFFL:Broncos | Team reportedly interested in R. MoatsMon, 21 Aug 2006 21:46:36 -0700Bob Brookover, of The Philadelphia Inquirer, reports the Denver Broncos are interested in Philadelphia Eagles RB Ryan Moats. It was previously reported that the Eagles had interest in Broncos WR Ashley Lelie and the Eagles could part with Moats if they are concerned WR Todd Pinkston (Achilles') will be unable to recover from his foot problems.

I dont think Moats gets the nod over Bell or Bell honestly. Id actually be a little confused by this trade unless they want a new RB3, or Tatum isnt sticking around.

it's more a matter of Shanny knowing he's got a bust in the backfield named Ron Dayne, and Dayne's hurt.

 

[coolnerd]

I posted this same idea in another thread. If you have had some unhealthy fascination with getting the starting RBs in Denver your current RBs

Portis

Droughns

Tatum Bell

Mike anderson

Mike Bell (via dropping Q)

Is important that the RB stay in Denver or that he stay in the NFL?

 

[Brasco]

Personally, I think its pretty safe to assume that Mike Bell will start (barring injury) and at least be used similarly to how Mike Anderson was used last season. The staff still really likes Tatum, but they like him for 10-15 carries a game. He's their explosive/homerun back. Whether their evaluation of Tatum being unable to handle the full load is correct or not is irrelevant. Shanny believes he can't, and won't give him the full load unless injuries force him to.

In the past, Shanny was definitely a one back type guy. But, his system has proven to make solid backs into very good backs and good backs into great backs. That allows him to plug solid backs into his system and get good to great output. I think Shanny learned a lot from doling out superstar money to T. Davis and having it eat up his cap space while TD was hurt. It has a lot to do with why they traded Portis. Why pay superstar money to Portis, when you can get similar output from a couple of cheap(er) backs and utilize that cap space for other areas? Kubiak for Houston just made a comment the other day about the importance of being able to use and utilize multiple backs over a season. These guys believe full on in their system (the zone blocking running system) and its ability to put running backs in great situations to succeed. In a salary cap era, it makes more sense to them to use multiple solid backs for cheap, then to use one highly paid back.

 

[JohnnyU]

Terrell Davis was a 6th round pick and wasn't even his college teams starting RB.To dismiss Mike Bell because he is undrafted would be a huge mistake. That he holds the #1 RB position this close to the season is too tough to ignore.

Never hurts to have someone like Mike Bell on your team if you got him cheap (WW), but those who are drafting him high (5th rd or sooner), are taking a huge risk. Also, those in dynasty leagues are driven crazy by Shanahan, because you just know your Denver gold this year could turn into fools gold a year later.

 

[comfortably numb]

Terrell Davis was a 6th round pick and wasn't even his college teams starting RB.To dismiss Mike Bell because he is undrafted would be a huge mistake. That he holds the #1 RB position this close to the season is too tough to ignore.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

I guess I'll play devil's advocate to the dynasty prognosticators, including Bloom, whose opinion I value HIGHLY, when it comes to Mike Bell: Why Mike Bell? Why NOT Mike Bell?

Very simply, because he has no special tools or skills. He's competent. He clearly "gets" running in a zone blocking scheme. He's got some power at the end of his runs, but he's not a real bruiser. He gets up to speed quickly, but he's more of a one speed back, and certainly not a home run threat.The reality is that Mike's opportunity was created more by Dayne's turf toe and Tatum's shortcomings than by Mike just blowing them away at training camp. It's not hard to picture the Broncos drafting or signing someone next year that brings more to the table than Mike Bell. You should only count on his shelf life being one year - meaning he's a big sell high in dynasty leagues right now.

 

[jafo]

I guess I'll play devil's advocate to the dynasty prognosticators, including Bloom, whose opinion I value HIGHLY, when it comes to Mike Bell: Why Mike Bell? Why NOT Mike Bell?

Very simply, because he has no special tools or skills. He's competent. He clearly "gets" running in a zone blocking scheme. He's got some power at the end of his runs, but he's not a real bruiser. He gets up to speed quickly, but he's more of a one speed back, and certainly not a home run threat.The reality is that Mike's opportunity was created more by Dayne's turf toe and Tatum's shortcomings than by Mike just blowing them away at training camp. It's not hard to picture the Broncos drafting or signing someone next year that brings more to the table than Mike Bell. You should only count on his shelf life being one year - meaning he's a big sell high in dynasty leagues right now.

I believe the reality is that Mike Bell got the promotion before Dayne injured his toe.

August 7, 2006, 12:13

Broncos :: RB

RB M. Bell Starting?

Bill Williamson, Denver Post - [Full Article]

In a stunning development, Broncos RB Mike Bell has jumped into the starting lineup in Monday morning's practice. Bell has leapfrogged Ron Dayne and Tatum Bell. Bell remains the No. 2 back. Dayne has fallen from No. 1 to No. 3.

August 14, 2006, 06:59

Broncos :: RB

RB Dayne, FB C. Sapp Sit Out Practice

Bill Williamson, Denver Post - [Full Article]

RB Ron Dayne (toe) missed practice Sunday. HC Shanahan said Dayne may get some work today. FB Cecil Sapp aggravated his groin injury Sunday and left practice early.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

I believe the reality is that Mike Bell got the promotion before Dayne injured his toe.

Turf Toe is not something that happens overnight. My guess would be that the toe was affecting Dayne before he missed practice.My main point is that even when Bell has looked good this preseason, he hasn't looked like a real talent - more like a lunchpail guy. You don't stand pat with those types, especially when you're Mike Shanahan. Bell could put up Anderson's 2005 numbers this year, but to expect him (or anyone) to become the #1 for the long haul in Denver is foolish.

 

[jafo]

I believe the reality is that Mike Bell got the promotion before Dayne injured his toe.

Turf Toe is not something that happens overnight. My guess would be that the toe was affecting Dayne before he missed practice.My main point is that even when Bell has looked good this preseason, he hasn't looked like a real talent - more like a lunchpail guy. You don't stand pat with those types, especially when you're Mike Shanahan. Bell could put up Anderson's 2005 numbers this year, but to expect him (or anyone) to become the #1 for the long haul in Denver is foolish.

With Dayne it was just a matter of time before he lost the job. Injury or not IMO. It seemed like a feel good story but doesn't look like it is going to work out for him. Turf toe is a pain in the butt for fantasy owners. I was surprised to see Dayne drafted in a redraft league this past weekend. That is what you get for drafting out of a magazine I guess. What was funny is he went only 1 or 2 picks after I took Mike Bell in the sixth.I own Tatum Bell in a dynasy league and he's the guy to have IMO. We know he will get 10 carries a game that we can count on, anything more is a bonus. If you can get Mike Bell off the WW he is a good low risk, high reward guy, but you can't really count on him for next year.

 

[SSOG]

This whole Shanahan-loves-a-different-RB-every-year thing actually is a fairly recent phenomenon. Before, Terrell Davis was his guy... until he got hurt. Then injuries to TD forced him to use Olandis Gary and Mike Anderson. But then once Clinton Portis came along, it seemed like the RB position in Denver would be set for years. Until he got traded, that is. I guess what I'm saying is, I don't think Shanahan goes with a different RB just for the sake of it. If he had a quality starter like Portis or Davis he would stick with them. It's because he doesn't have a clear #1 that he's forced to experiment. If the Broncos do manage to find a long-term successor to Davis and Portis, then there wouldn't be this annual trading camp circus.

It may have SEEMED like Portis meant the RB situation was set for years, but it wasn't. Portis *DID* get traded. Shanahan has shown a very big willingness to let RBs go for compensation, or even just cap relief. Even if Shanny finds another Portis, do you honestly think he'd hesitate to trade him for another Champ Bailey?

This whole Shanahan-loves-a-different-RB-every-year thing actually is a fairly recent phenomenon. Before, Terrell Davis was his guy... until he got hurt. Then injuries to TD forced him to use Olandis Gary and Mike Anderson. But then once Clinton Portis came along, it seemed like the RB position in Denver would be set for years. Until he got traded, that is. I guess what I'm saying is, I don't think Shanahan goes with a different RB just for the sake of it. If he had a quality starter like Portis or Davis he would stick with them. It's because he doesn't have a clear #1 that he's forced to experiment. If the Broncos do manage to find a long-term successor to Davis and Portis, then there wouldn't be this annual trading camp circus.

Sure, it wasn't the initial intent, but that's the way it has become. I only know what I see, and I see a man obessed with proving that he can plug in my grandmother at RB to prove what a genius he is.

You're kidding, right? Shanahan's doing this to prove he's a genius? And here I thought he was doing this because he could get as much rushing production out of Anderson/TBell as he could out of Portis.Last season was Denver's best rushing season under Shanahan. Not only did they not LOSE anything by giving up Portis, they GAINED Champ Bailey, who was actually getting very strong DPoY consideration last year (didn't he finish 3rd in balloting?).If I told you that you could give me an RB without losing ANYTHING AT ALL- and actually IMPROVE your rushing game- and in exchange I'd give you perhaps the best defensive player in the entire NFL, would you take that trade? And if you took it, would it be to stoke your own ego?Let's look at the Reuben Droughns trade, too. Again, Denver didn't lose anything. Mike Anderson wound up producing better than Droughns, Denver's running game improved, and Denver got some solid contributors on its DLine in return.There hasn't been a single time that Shanny let an RB go without drastically improving his team. You can call that "ego" or "an attempt to prove what a genius he is". Personally, I call that ridiculously good GMing.

 

[hi1111]

Mike Bell has been impressive without doubt, I think he's starting simply because he obviously works hard and listens to everything, much like Davis

 

[Couch Potato]

I guess I'll play devil's advocate to the dynasty prognosticators, including Bloom, whose opinion I value HIGHLY, when it comes to Mike Bell: Why Mike Bell? Why NOT Mike Bell?

Very simply, because he has no special tools or skills. He's competent. He clearly "gets" running in a zone blocking scheme. He's got some power at the end of his runs, but he's not a real bruiser. He gets up to speed quickly, but he's more of a one speed back, and certainly not a home run threat.The reality is that Mike's opportunity was created more by Dayne's turf toe and Tatum's shortcomings than by Mike just blowing them away at training camp. It's not hard to picture the Broncos drafting or signing someone next year that brings more to the table than Mike Bell. You should only count on his shelf life being one year - meaning he's a big sell high in dynasty leagues right now.

I disagree with the last part of the last sentence. While he may well be a sell high candidate, M Bell's value is like a still-ripening fruit. It will not have matured until the masses accept him as the starting Denver RB and he has some solid regular season production under his belt. Those who want to sell, believing he'll have a one year shelf life, need to be very smart about their timing so they don't give him up too cheaply.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

I guess I'll play devil's advocate to the dynasty prognosticators, including Bloom, whose opinion I value HIGHLY, when it comes to Mike Bell: Why Mike Bell? Why NOT Mike Bell?

Very simply, because he has no special tools or skills. He's competent. He clearly "gets" running in a zone blocking scheme. He's got some power at the end of his runs, but he's not a real bruiser. He gets up to speed quickly, but he's more of a one speed back, and certainly not a home run threat.The reality is that Mike's opportunity was created more by Dayne's turf toe and Tatum's shortcomings than by Mike just blowing them away at training camp. It's not hard to picture the Broncos drafting or signing someone next year that brings more to the table than Mike Bell. You should only count on his shelf life being one year - meaning he's a big sell high in dynasty leagues right now.

I disagree with the last part of the last sentence. While he may well be a sell high candidate, M Bell's value is like a still-ripening fruit. It will not have matured until the masses accept him as the starting Denver RB and he has some solid regular season production under his belt. Those who want to sell, believing he'll have a one year shelf life, need to be very smart about their timing so they don't give him up too cheaply.

If the masses haven't accepted him yet, you're right. Most of the people I'm talking to have, so I'm a bit skewed here. Still, I would be eager to cash him in now because one injury, or one great Tatum Bell performance, and his value could go poof.

 

[The_U]

Good follow-up Bloom. Trust me, your opinion is always duly noted by The U when it comes to the kiddie crop. No one does it better. As stated, I felt compelled to play the other side of the coin when it came to Mike Bell, and again, stranger things have happened that this kid.

 

[SSOG]

I guess I'll play devil's advocate to the dynasty prognosticators, including Bloom, whose opinion I value HIGHLY, when it comes to Mike Bell: Why Mike Bell? Why NOT Mike Bell?

Very simply, because he has no special tools or skills. He's competent. He clearly "gets" running in a zone blocking scheme. He's got some power at the end of his runs, but he's not a real bruiser. He gets up to speed quickly, but he's more of a one speed back, and certainly not a home run threat.The reality is that Mike's opportunity was created more by Dayne's turf toe and Tatum's shortcomings than by Mike just blowing them away at training camp. It's not hard to picture the Broncos drafting or signing someone next year that brings more to the table than Mike Bell. You should only count on his shelf life being one year - meaning he's a big sell high in dynasty leagues right now.

I disagree with the last part of the last sentence. While he may well be a sell high candidate, M Bell's value is like a still-ripening fruit. It will not have matured until the masses accept him as the starting Denver RB and he has some solid regular season production under his belt. Those who want to sell, believing he'll have a one year shelf life, need to be very smart about their timing so they don't give him up too cheaply.

Actually, the best time to trade Denver RBs in dynasty, in my opinion, would be midway through the season. They will have already established their value, other owners will be thinking only about this year, some teams will have a clear and compelling need at RB (and even better, many of those teams with that need will be playoff hopefuls), and people will be less likely to think of just how much long-term value said Denver RB might hold. Plus you get at least half a season of production out of him, which is nothing to be sneezed at.

 

[mbuehner]

Turf Toe is not something that happens overnight. My guess would be that the toe was affecting Dayne before he missed practice.

Dayne seems to have developed it sometime around the year 2000. Its those lingering ones that get ya.I originally said i didnt think Denvers leading rusher was on the team yet but that window is closing pretty rapidly with the latest trades. Shanny has painted himself into a bit of a corner- you cant really ante up much in the way of trade bait when your MO is that you dont overpay running backs because you can groom sure winners. I still think there is a good possibility somebody comes out of left field, but no idea who that would be. Wait till the cuts start- the would be real Shannihan style.Hey The U, i dont care who you take on Sunday, but a week from tomorrow be a pal and dont let Barlow get away from you.

 

[JayMan]

The initial question asked if we should lurk for a Denver RB in a [DYNASTY] league or not... but I think the underlying quetion - and the correct question one has to ask himself is: Is this a talented young RB that will help my team for years to come, whether he's running for the Broncos or not?...

I'm saying this because Shanahan has only one goal - and it is to improve his football team... some call it ego - or wanting to prove that it's the system and not the RB - but it has to do with: Am I better with RB1 and no CB... or should I deal RB1 and play with RB2 if I can get a ProBowl CB?... if he thinks the second scenario is the best one - he will deal the "better RB" to improve his team...

Simply put - Shanahan doesn't want the best parts of a football team - he wants the best overall team he can get... and of course, that has to do with his own judgement - right or wrong...

With that in mind... The best player - at any given time - will have the opportunity to run in the zone blocking scheme of the Broncos...

Terrell Davis ran with it for a few tremendous years - then injuries meant that Orlandis Gary had his chances... Then came along Mike Anderson who was better suited for the job - he gets the nod... we have a star in Clinton Portis? here's the ball Clinton... We can get the best shutdown CB in the league for Portis? Well, we'll have to let a smurf run for a bit then let our fullback run for a 1,000 yards for a year before shipping him to Cleveland and improving the team again... Mike Anderson and Tatum Bell run for us... Now, why not try to go with Mike Bell?

We need to take into consideration the financial aspect of it all also... in improving the team, Shanahan is looking to get the best value for his bucks - and if he can have a rookie running for him (and we are talking an undrafted rookie here) for two-three years... this helps him in freeing money for other positions...

The simple fact that Shanahan will take any action that helps his team should defer the question: Should I draft Mike Bell for my [DYNASTY] roster? to: Is Mike Bell a good enough RB to help my [DYNASTY] team for years to come, whether he's in Denver or not...

Just insert the names: Orlandis Gary / Quentin Griffin / Clinton Portis in the paragraph above and you will have your answer...

The simple fact that Mike Bell went undrafted - that 32 scouting departments passed on him in April - couple with Bloom's posting here is more than enough, in my opinion...