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Is Kelce the 1.01 pick in redrafts next year? (1 Viewer)

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Pipes

Footballguy
His dominance over the rest of position is crazy. And other than a couple of others like Andrews no one else is in his stratosphere. With injuries and byes the TE's people are rolling out there Kelce is outscoring them 20-30 points every week, sometimes even more. I can find RB's and WR's on the waiver wire, that are in at least the same ballpark as RB1 and WR1 but TE not even close. Kelce is a cheat code, the biggest one I can ever remember in my 30 years of fantasy football. I know things change but as of right now I'd seriously consider him at 1.01
 
Kelce is good enough that exaggerations arent needed. He "only" scored 20+ points 60% of the time, so needless to say, your point differential every week is pretty widely exaggerated. It is fair to say that he nearly doubles the output of others.
Exaggeration number 2, where are you finding guys on the WW that put up WR1 or RB1 ball park numbers?
 
I mean he went third overall in my redraft this year. I wouldn't have picked him there at the time but definitely worth it. Huge advantage.
 
It'd be an interesting strategy to deploy. In a redraft if you have 1.01 in a (let's say) 12 teamer, you're getting #1, 24, and 25. So just figure by the time it gets to you in the second that the top 3 QBs, 9 RBs and 9 WRs (your league's milage may vary) are off the board and plan accordingly.

Edit to add: (math accounts for someone picking Andrews)

Every time - Every.Single.Time. I've reached for a TE it has been disastrous (enjoy retirement Gronk)
 
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I have been successfully drafting Kelce in the 1st for round for 3-4 years now. He’s a league winner, year in and year out. Drafted 5x last year, made the playoffs 4x. Drafted 4x this year and all 4 are in the running for the playoffs.
 
Guy in our league drafted him 1.11 and like other teams with a slow start is clawing back in it at 6-5 via waivers and Kelce - his top 5 draft order: Kelce, Jav. Williams, K. Allen, Dillon, G. Davis--so clearly, his waiver moves are saving him at least as much as having Kelce.
 
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Great question. That's why I subscribe to services that give me VBD numbers (like FBG). I doubt sincerely they have Kelce going #1 overall, even by VBD, as sick as he is. Did you happen to read my post in the other thread?

This year's PPR PPG:

Kelce - 22+
Andrews - 14.8
Kittle - 12.8
Goedert - 12.8
Hockenson - 12.1
Ertz - 11.8

The drop-off from there then commences. Kelce is so far above the next best at his position that it's ludicrous (as you point out). I still don't think he'll be the 1.01.
 
rockaction said:
Great question. That's why I subscribe to services that give me VBD numbers (like FBG). I doubt sincerely they have Kelce going #1 overall, even by VBD, as sick as he is. Did you happen to read my post in the other thread?

This year's PPR PPG:

Kelce - 22+
Andrews - 14.8
Kittle - 12.8
Goedert - 12.8
Hockenson - 12.1
Ertz - 11.8

The drop-off from there then commences. Kelce is so far above the next best at his position that it's ludicrous (as you point out). I still don't think he'll be the 1.01.
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He likely won’t be 1.01. Now that doesn’t mean that’s the correct thing to do. The consensus 1.01 seems to be a bust year after year. So what do we know.
 
Dickies said:
I'm curious about it. In both of my leagues the Kelce owner is in 1st place
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The Kelce owner is in 1st place in 2 of my 3 leagues, and the in the 3rd, the owner is going to the playoffs and has a legit shot at the title.. Being able to put 10 points as a floor at the TE position, and with upside to 30-35 points, is super valuable. Most TEs, you're happy with 10 points, usually you need a TD for that.

I assumed this year that Kelce would be double teamed and roughed up more now that Hill is in MIA. I was so wrong. Somehow I forgot how good Mahomes really is.
 
Cjw_55106 said:
Kelce is good enough that exaggerations arent needed. He "only" scored 20+ points 60% of the time, so needless to say, your point differential every week is pretty widely exaggerated. It is fair to say that he nearly doubles the output of others.
Exaggeration number 2, where are you finding guys on the WW that put up WR1 or RB1 ball park numbers?
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Guys like Elijah Mitchell, Isiah Pacheco, Tyler Algeier etc have been available on the waiver wire. Yes it's not RB1 numbers but much closer than the crap that's been available at TE. Most TEs on are waiver wire are barely putting up any points. We get extra points for longer TD's in my league so my bad should've looked at standard scoring but I still think my point holds water. The dropoff from Kelce to the Andrews tier is significant, the drop off after that is even worse.
 
Took him 1.5 this year and Mahomes in the 3rd. got made fun of for taking mahomes early but it sounded fun to pair them up and its definitely been fun

as good as the points have been a lot of come from behind 50-60 pt Sunday and Monday nights for the win (edit:) have been just as much fun. Great for trash talking lol

if he’s there in my redraft I’m taking him, 1.1 fine with me
 
He's already tied his season-long career high for TDs and will assuredly exceed his highs in receptions and yards.

Outside of Andrews returning to health next year, there doesn't seem to be another viable TE competitor to the top spot. Waller and Kittle aren't that guy and are not the youngest guys themselves, even if younger than Kelce, and who knows what Pitts will become in that offense.

All that said, I think the answer is no. While one certainly make the case that he will continue to offer the greatest relative advantage of any position, at some point the production will drop off and I doubt many will want to be left holding the bag using the 1.01 on him.
 
fightingillini said:
Dickies said:
I'm curious about it. In both of my leagues the Kelce owner is in 1st place
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I assumed this year that Kelce would be double teamed and roughed up more now that Hill is in MIA. I was so wrong. Somehow I forgot how good Mahomes really is.
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Yeah, either Kelce is the most amazing route runner ever or Andy Reid is the greatest play designer ever because Kelce runs totally free an awful lot. Seems like defensive coaches would pay a little more attention and realize that 87 is pretty good. I think I would take my chances with MVS or Juju.

Same thing with Adams in LV. Two wide open TDs this week when the Raiders literally have nobody else in the passing game. What are these D coordinators doing?
 
Consider their WR core and the litany of injuries they’ve had there. One can’t expect that to happen again (not to say it won’t).
 
zamboni said:
SoBeDad said:
He'll be 34 next year and 7 of his 11 TDs came in 2 games. No.
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The age I agree with, but he's also had a TD in 6 out of his 10 games so far. In any event, TDs are often variable year to year and thus hard to make an assessment.
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I replied before reading this - but you went even further to show why, even if that carried over that’s not the way you should be looking at that stat. Most people would take 1 TD in 6 of 10 games, and Kelce not only did that but in 2 of them he scored 3 TDs and 4 TDs and won you those weeks.
 
Army Eye said:
If you take him 1.01 you're basically betting on his current ABSURD touchdown production to continue. I for one wil be happy to fade that.
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People would have been shaking their heads this year as well. Wisdom of the crowd isn’t always correct. Actually, it’s usually wrong about the 1.01.

How many times have you had Kelce on your teams in the last 4-5 years?
 
The team in my 12 team IDP re-draft that took Kelce 1.09 & Mahomes 3.09 is three games back of his division and also three games back of the wildcard, and likely to miss the playoffs, so… Yeah, I would not take Kelce 1.01.

That said, it’s not absurd to consider it. The dude has been an absolute monster more often than not this year.

his age definitely concerns me, though from the Pitts topic, some believe it’s irrelevant.
 
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I would likely not take Kelce 1.01, but he's still a clear 1st round pick. Why not lock in the biggest advantage and look for RB/WR value later? It's not like the RB or WR you take in Round 1 is a mortal lock to produce 1st round value.
 
The consensus top 3 picks this year were probably Jonathon Taylor, CMC, and Kupp. It seems like most teams would have been better off taking Kelce 1.01, but of course it all depends on who you end up taking with your other picks.

With Hill going to Miami, it was pretty likely that Kelce would be even more of a focal point in the Chiefs offense as well, and this could very well continue next year. I don't think he will ever be the clear 1.01 pick, but there is certainly an argument to be made for taking him 1.01. We are actually in a rare period (as far as I can recall) where you could make a legitimate argument for either a RB, WR, or TE at 1.01, and it will most likely come down to each owner's preference without there being a clear correct or incorrect answer.
 
I mean how is he always left so damn wide open?? gronk wasnt even that dominant or tony g. that said no way toud take kelce at 1.1 your rb wr combos would be so very weak you wouldnt compete
 
GreenNGold said:
The consensus top 3 picks this year were probably Jonathon Taylor, CMC, and Kupp. It seems like most teams would have been better off taking Kelce 1.01, but of course it all depends on who you end up taking with your other picks.

With Hill going to Miami, it was pretty likely that Kelce would be even more of a focal point in the Chiefs offense as well, and this could very well continue next year. I don't think he will ever be the clear 1.01 pick, but there is certainly an argument to be made for taking him 1.01. We are actually in a rare period (as far as I can recall) where you could make a legitimate argument for either a RB, WR, or TE at 1.01, and it will most likely come down to each owner's preference without there being a clear correct or incorrect answer.
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Over the past couple years, I have seen him go #1 overall in the FBG TE premium.

Never me, but hard to argue based on this season
 
Kelce managers in first place in my ppr redraft and in my 14 team dynasty league. TE has been the bane of my existence in both leagues. Waller to Njoku to Tonyan to Moreau back to Njoku then he’s not practicing today 😆.

Knox and Kmet both dropping turds for 5 weeks and a lotta churning the waivers in dynasty. Johnston has been my only semi successful waiver guy.. mo Allie, pharaoh, brevin Jordan, granson, Bryant. Dropped Bellinger a week too soon. Now I’m starting two of em because my team is destroyed 🤣
 
efactor said:
GreenNGold said:
The consensus top 3 picks this year were probably Jonathon Taylor, CMC, and Kupp. It seems like most teams would have been better off taking Kelce 1.01, but of course it all depends on who you end up taking with your other picks.

With Hill going to Miami, it was pretty likely that Kelce would be even more of a focal point in the Chiefs offense as well, and this could very well continue next year. I don't think he will ever be the clear 1.01 pick, but there is certainly an argument to be made for taking him 1.01. We are actually in a rare period (as far as I can recall) where you could make a legitimate argument for either a RB, WR, or TE at 1.01, and it will most likely come down to each owner's preference without there being a clear correct or incorrect answer.
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Over the past couple years, I have seen him go #1 overall in the FBG TE premium.

Never me, but hard to argue based on this season
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I agree, but next season is, well, next season.

Skyy Moore is looking like a player on the rise, Juju is still pretty young - and who knows what the chiefs will do in free agency.

I’d suggest it’s too early to make this call.

If the Chiefs don’t add a WR in the off-season, then maybe it’s worth considering.
 
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