lod01
Footballguy
I own Cavlin in dynasty and would trade him & a 2015 1st rd pick instantly for Beckham. It's not just that he's older. It's that the Lions have been herminated.
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Is Now the Time to Sell Calvin Johnson? (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Ack88
- Start date
ghostguy123
Footballguy
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Blind squirrel finds a nut now and again. Broken clock is right twice a day. OBD got lucky on all those great plays, closing his eyes. Luckiest player ever
Jello_Biafra
Footballguy
Meatwad Reloaded
Footballguy
In dynasty, why would anyone ever trade you ODB for Calvin even straight up? Calvin is about two years away from becoming Larry Fitzgerald.lod01 said:
Meatwad Reloaded
Footballguy
Oh wait, my mistake...you are throwing in the pick. 
Still would not do it.
Still would not do it.
Shutout
Footballguy
So silly. I get the feeling FF is littered with guys who are on their 2nd and 3rd wives or don't stay in relationships very long. Every time something flashy catches your eye, what was the greatest thing since sliced bread (Calvin) is dumped quickly and unceremoniously for the shiny new thing (ODB).
ODB is like one of those Hobbit's rings...My precious..my precious. But then again, the NFL is littered with fake power rings. Some guys even still wear their TRICH & Jordan Cameron rings from last year.
ODB is like one of those Hobbit's rings...My precious..my precious. But then again, the NFL is littered with fake power rings. Some guys even still wear their TRICH & Jordan Cameron rings from last year.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
I love Calvin, and might be buying this off-season, but no way is he worth more than OBJr. after that rookie season.
steveski
Footballguy
Just curious, but have you actually watched OBJ (not ODB) play? Not just the highlights, but actually watch him play? I see a lot of people bring up that it's a fluke or that his numbers aren't that different than Keenan Allen's his rookie year. Yeah I get that just looking at numbers can make someone suspicious. But did you actually watch him? He is better than everybody else on the field and it's clear. He's not just super fast. He's not just a great route runner. He's not just great at jump balls. He's really good at everything. That's not going away. Sure, there's a chance he doesn't average the same numbers next year with a healthier and more balanced team around him, but he isn't going away. He is going to be a top WR in the league for a very long time. You'd be a fool to prefer Calvin over him in dynasty.
TRich never did anything special. He just had a ton of volume and that got him TD's. People that are or ever were on that train were just going off of what he was expected to be when he came into the league. He's never been impressive.
Jordan Cameron is a very good TE, but his career looks to be coming to a quick end due to injuries.
Maybe come up with a better comparison of someone who has looked this good early in his career and then went on to be nothing special? Keenan Allen has to be a good example, but then again, Keenan Allen isn't really that special of a player and never looked like it. He's a good route runner and happened to catch a lot of TD's on slants, etc. OBJ is breaking defenders ankles every play. When he's not, he's making circus catches in the endzone. When they decide to throw a slant to him, he's outrunning the defenders.
lod01
Footballguy
If they had a clue they wouldn't. I'm helping make his point. Even as an owner of Calvin, I would take Beckham if I got the chance.
msudaisy26
Footballguy
SproutDaddy
Footballguy
Michael Clayton says hi
SproutDaddy
Footballguy
Obviously I can see why people would trade Calvin for Odell. No way in HELL I'd make that trade straight up. I'd consider swapping the 2 , but the trade would have to include other parts. I'd have to have another piece or two to offset things. You can say Odell is the next coming, but the bottom line is Calvin is the more proven and consistent commodity.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
There are a ton of differences between Clayton/Allen and OBJr. Big, obvious differences.
msudaisy26
Footballguy
So does AJ Green.
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Warhogs
Footballguy
I agree with this. Sure there is a risk that OBJ is a flash in the pan but I don't see that as a very likely outcome. Age will soon start catching up with the great Calvin Johnson. Understand that I still see Megatron as a valuable WR but in dynasty I would take OBJ over Megatron right now.
SproutDaddy
Footballguy
SproutDaddy
Footballguy
Hu-Tang Clan
Footballguy
Warhogs
Footballguy
With Calvin being 29 I think you will get similar production over the next 2-3 years. If you look at a 2-3 year window I can see some feeling better about taking the proven Megatron. There are still a lot of owners that look beyond the 2-3 years and they would most likely pay more for OBJ. If you are a 2-3 year window guy trading away OBJ is probably the way to go.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
OBJr was both a first round pick and has truly outstanding physical abilities. Clayton and Allen both lack any dominant tools. And Allen was a 3rd round pick.
Additionally, OBJr had about 50% more yards/game than Clayton or Allen, with nearly double the TD rate.
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msudaisy26
Footballguy
It can, but OBJ passes the eye ball test. Clayton never did. Green did as wellSproutDaddy said:
Shutout
Footballguy
Short answer: was busy at work when I posted and didn't notice the typo.Yes, watched him. Was on record saying he made amazing plays and produced. But it's the nfl. Lots of guys, especially lots of wr Giants over the past few years (remember, Steve smith..not THE steve Smith but the other guy?) have had awesome short bursts. The NfL adjusts. Nobody and I mean nobody can possibly sustain the production and the perch some of you guys are putting him on.steveski said:
It's easy for you or anyone to say what they want about trich today but if we must, I can go back and pull the pages and pages of threads on trich just two years ago, after his rookie season where everyone was talking about him being a top 3 dynasty rb, how some would take him over Peterson even then, how he and Norv turner together were going to destroy fantasy records.
And it wasn't long ago how people talked about Jordan Cameron, about rg 3, about Kaep, about Hakeem nicks, about Steve smith who dominated out the slot, about Djax...Peyton Hillis and his dominant year. On and on and on.
The NFL does adjust.
My point has never been that he isn't good/great. Won't be elite or a top wr. My point is some of you guys are talking him up so big that he will not justify the price you ultimately set as his market value when you pay for him next season.
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georg013
Footballguy
Surprised with his amazing skill set he wasnt the first receiver taken. Many of you should be scouts since you saw what teams couldnt. Lots of great scouts in here. I will definitely be picking your collective brains for my upcoming draft! Who would of thought there are so many great eyeball testers in the pool. Color me blessed! Moving Alshon, DT, and Calvin for ODB as we speak. His production will be enough!Im convinced. He is worth the 1.01 and probably a little more.
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SproutDaddy
Footballguy
That is simply opinion. Did you see Clayton his rookie year?
ghostguy123
Footballguy
He is, until he isnt. Thats called pro football.SproutDaddy said:
ghostguy123
Footballguy
No one is this stupid.SproutDaddy said:
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Its hilariously stupid to compare OBJ to some of these other guys. Clayton??? REALLY????. Nothing is similar between the two.
Touchdown Syndrome
Footballguy
"When I watch football, I admit I don't know what I'm looking at! Therefore my opinion on this topic is sub-worthless! I still feel the need to share that opinion. 'Merica, amirite?"SproutDaddy said:
CalBear
Footballguy
Yeah, like going into 2006 when he was coming off two seasons in a row over 400 touches, and was getting old for a RB. On the downside of his career. I'm sure some people traded him then and missed out on the greatest fantasy season of all time (by VBD). Or they traded him after that season (he can't possibly reproduce it, right?) and missed out on another #1 RB performance in 2007 and 166 VBD points in 2007.
Here's my prediction: Barring injury, Calvin Johnson will have at least two more seasons with 100+ VBD points. Is that true of the guy you can trade him for?
Warhogs
Footballguy
Isn't this the big dynasty question we face all the time? No doubt, Megatron could put up huge numbers the next two years, but then is what's his value at 31? The question we always face is when to sell off for what future value we can get and when to hold. We know Megatron can be great for two more years but the big variable is how much each is willing to spend or would need to cash in that two years for picks and players for future production. He is a higher level Anquan Boldin. I have held Boldin for several years now because nobody is willing to pay enough for him for me to want to part with 1000 yards and 8 touchdowns each and every year.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
I am perfectly ok trading away a guy who has 2-3 more super stud years if I am getting a guy who gives me 10 stud years.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Right. Since most people believe Calvin will put up really big numbers for a while longer, that is the only reason you can get the stud WRs who are in their early-mid 20s.
Well, you COULD anyway, not now. I am not giving up Dez or Julio for Calvin. Or OBJ
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ghostguy123
Footballguy
And to answer the OP question, the answer is no, "right now today" is not the time to sell Calvin because (in the majority of cases) you will not get nearly the value back you would have a year ago.
Based on what most NON Calvin owners are willing to pay right now, I see Calvin as more of a "hold"
Based on what most NON Calvin owners are willing to pay right now, I see Calvin as more of a "hold"
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
I think Calvin has definitely moved into the "hold" category. If you've got him now, ride him until he drops and hope that his exceptional size and explosion give him a long, slow fade -- T.O. style.
No one's going to trade you OBJr, DT, AJG or Julio for him at this point.
No one's going to trade you OBJr, DT, AJG or Julio for him at this point.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
He is probably a hold for like 2-3 years, and if at that point you are a non-playoff team or a bottom level playoff team, that would be a good time (at age 31 or so) to deal him away for a single 1st rounder that you think would be a high pick, or some sort of package of young unproven guys you think have a bright future.
Otherwise if you are a good team, as you said, ride him till he dies
CalBear
Footballguy
Well, duh. There just aren't many of those around.
Prior to the 2006 season you almost certainly could have traded Tomlinson for Shaun Alexander, Larry Johnson, or Steven Jackson. That would have been a mistake.
Prior to the 2007 season you had those guys, Reggie Bush, Joe Addai, and Frank Gore. Even though Tomlinson only had one 100+ VBD season left in him (2007), only one of the six plausible "top dynasty RBs" you might have traded him for would have been a decent trade (Gore). And even then, Gore never had a season as good as Tomlinson's 2007.
Now, if you were really prescient, you could have traded him for Adrian Peterson or Marshawn Lynch that year, but would you have? Would you have traded Calvin for ODB prior to this season?
Going into 2008, Tomlinson's value had fallen enough that you couldn't get Peterson and maybe not Lynch either. The point being, there are a lot more flavor-of-the-day players than studs, so giving up a proven stud for uncertain production is a a risky proposition at best, and throwing good money after bad at worst.
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msudaisy26
Footballguy
Right now Calvin is a hold unless your team is a train wreck. When the OP asked the question I think he was a sell.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Since I view RBs (both ranking and trade philosophy) completely different than WRs, I can't really comment on any of that.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Yep, he wrote it before this past season.
At that time, you could probably have gotten almost twice as much for Calvin as you can right now. Which is EXACTLY WHY he was definitely a "sell" at that time. Which was predicted by many of us, even if Calvin had a good year.
msudaisy26
Footballguy
Yeah, I sold him right before the trade deadline in my league that I had him. I got Tre Mason, Cooks, and 2 first rounders in 2015. Ended up being 1.06 and 1.10
CalBear
Footballguy
Well, OK, who is your example WR who looks like Calvin Johnson? I'll leave Rice out, but let's talk about TO, who's probably a pretty good comp in terms of talent and the way they play.ghostguy123 said:
Let's say it's 2003, and TO will be 30 years old, coming off a down year (60 VBD) after three straight 100-VBD seasons. In dynasty there are three big WRs, Harrison, Owens, and Moss, and no one will give you Harrison or Moss for Owens in 2003. So who do you have as options? The next three ranked WRs by ADP in 2003 are Eric Moulds, Plaxico Burress, and Hines Ward. Then it's Joe Horn, who's even older, and Torry Holt, who his owner probably was in love with but you might have been able to get him for TO. After that, David Boston, Peerless Price, Donald Driver, Laverneus Coles, Chad Johnson.
For the rest of his career, TO generated 364 VBD points, including three seasons over 75 and one over 100 (2007 with Dallas). Torry Holt generated 386 points, with one season over 100, no others over 75 (two over 70). None of the other players on the list came anywhere close to providing the value that a 30-year-old TO did in 2003.
So, if you'd managed to move TO for the absolute best option available, you would have wound up with an essentially equivalent player, and any other move would have resulted in losing out on three top-5 fantasy finishes.
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ghostguy123
Footballguy
It depends on which young WRs are available.
If I can deal Calvin right now and get back OBJ, Julio, or Dez I will do it even if I have to add something.
I dont even particularly care to look at the past anyway. I look at Calvin, and I look at which young studly looking WRs are out there. If I think any of them are rather surefire studs for many years to come, I will go after them. OBJ is one of them. Julio and Green were after their rookie years IMO also. Dez I felt good enough about to take him #1 in my rookie draft the year he came out, and felt very good enough him after his rookie year. If any of OBJ, Dez, green, or Julio (heading into their 2nd years) were there, I would definitely deal Calvin for them. I also would deal him for Watkins, and maybe Evans.
A lot of people like to look at players in the past, but I prefer to spend my time and energy on the here and now and how confident I am about certain players to score at a high level for years to come. Horn, Holt, Johnson, and others do nothing to tell me how well OBJ, Green, Watkins, or Evens will do.
I felt very good about Keenan Allen after last year (still think he will be very good), but not to the level of how I feel about OBJ. I also made sure to sell high on Allen in a league last year when I had the opportunity.
CalBear
Footballguy
The thing is, the vast majority of promising young players will never put up the kinds of seasons Calvin Johnson has. A solid majority will never get to the top tier. It is likely that the rest of Johnson's career will look something like the after-age-29 careers of other recent Hall of Fame-level receivers (Rice, Moss, Owens, Harrison), all of which include multiple top-5 fantasy finishes. You're not going to be able to move Johnson for young guys who've already had top-5 finishes like OBJ or Green. You could probably get Watkins or Evans for him, but will they ever have a top-5 WR finish? The odds are against them, while the odds are pretty good that Johnson manages it again.
Tau837
Footballguy
Much of the recent discussion here has been about preferring Julio, Dez, Beckham, etc. to Calvin. Those positions are debatable.
But I'd rather have Calvin (and 3 other rostered players) than the group you got in your trade.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
I wouldnt say the odds are against Watkins or Evans to EVER have a top 5 finish.
Calvin is a super star like we have never seen before, but he is still human, and dealing with more injuries than we ever saw out of the other guys like Owens and Moss.
Also, just because Calvin is a super stud and the best in the game doesnt mean his longevity will be that of Rice and Owens. It doesnt work that way.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Yeah, he didnt sell high.Much of the recent discussion here has been about preferring Julio, Dez, Beckham, etc. to Calvin. Those positions are debatable.
But I'd rather have Calvin (and 3 other rostered players) than the group you got in your trade.
That return would be debatable right NOW.
