I'm going to call Emmitt, Faulk, Tomlinson and Martin HOFers for the purpose of this post.
Terrell Davis is, IMO, the most deserving HOF not yet in Canton. Priest Holmes is #2. Both of these guys have "system" questions, where they played on teams with great rushing systems and dominant OLs. Their teams replaced their backs with other backs who were terrific, although neither were as good for as long. In both cases, though, the replacement RBs were elite talent RBs. Jim Brown was replaced by Leroy Kelly, a HOFer. Johnson and Portis have HOF type talent, so it's hard to really separate out how much of an impact the lines/system for those two guys had. Either way, I think it's a moot point for asking the question "will these guys make the HOF?" Because the HOF largely ignores these things. Whether or not they should make the Hall is another question.
When you include post-season success, TD is a no brainer. I think he's borderline if he never played a playoff game but -- and once again, if you ignore system effects -- he's a top 10 RB of all time if you count the post-season. Seeing as how everyone counts the post-season, this isn't too controversial.
Holmes has a great cases than probably the majority of RBs in the HOF, but that's not a good litmus test. He was more dominant than Dorsett or Kelly or Harris or Riggins or Allen, and a lot more dominant than guys like Hornung or Matson. But the HOF test was different back then, so I don't think we can do an apples to apples comparison.
Holmes in 2002 had one of the greatest five seasons in RB history. He had 163.1 yards from scrimmage per game, the most ever. He had just one fumble. He had 1.7 touchdowns per game, the fifth most ever. He missed two games that season, and I can't help but wonder if he would have won the MVP had he not missed those games. Even with the missed games, it's a top 5 season of all time. His 2003 season was awesome, a top 25 season of all time. In 2001 he had another top 75 season of all time. That's one GOAT season, one historically great season and one awesome season.
That's more than most HOFers. That's more than Edge, or Tiki, or Shaun Alexander. It's more than Portis, Watters, Westbrook or Bettis. The guy Holmes could be compared to is Campbell. Totally different styles of runners and Campbell was on bad offensive teams -- he would have killed for a Green or a Gonzo. But Campbell and Holmes match up very well historically.
Campbell's 1980 was crazy, all time great good. He had over 1900 rushing yards in 14 games, missed one game and missed almost all of another. That matches Holmes' 2002.
Holmes '03 was an all time great season, as was Campbell's 1979.
Holmes '01 was terrific; so was Campbell in '78.
Campbell in '83 had one last good season; Holmes was dominant in 2004 but only for 8 games. Campbell has one more good year in '81 that Holmes can't match, but Holmes had a slightly better season at each level that I'd call that a wash.
So I think TD is an obvious "yes" and Holmes is a borderline candidate but should be in. That said, Holmes had a chance to make this obvious.
If he never got hurt in '02 (his best season, could have put up GOAT numbers) or '04 (big season but missed 8 games), you couldn't ignore his numbers:
If you pro-rate his 54 games to 64, you get 1370 carries, 6497 rushing yards, 83 rushing TDs, 267 receptions, 2564 receiving yards and 7 receiving TDs with only 12 fumbles. That's a seasonal average of 343/1624/21 and 67/641/2 with three fumbles. Four straight years of that!
If you pro-rate his numbers in his two missed seasons (instead of prorating his weighted average), you'd get:
349/1651/22 and 64/612/2 with 3.5 fumbles per year. I'm not sure which way is more appropriate, but either way we're talking over 100 yards rushing a game, huge receiving numbers and 1.5 TDs a game.
In terms of peak production, Holmes is a no brainer. And longevity is discussed all the time on this board, but the HOF hasn't often made that a key factor.