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Is the passing game out of control? (1 Viewer)

Has it gone too far?


  • Total voters
    174
I'm just curious to see what other NFL fans think of the passing numbers that are being thrown up early this season. For me personally it's gone a little too far. Mediocre QB's are routinely delivering 300 yard performances, 400+ yards seems to be the new standard for a 'good game', and the NFL record isn't on pace to be broken, but shattered.
I don't know why anyone would complain about this. Just up your *benchmark* a little bit. Not that hard to do. The passing game is just so much more efficient than the running game and schematically causes defenses fits. It's any wonder why it took us this long to get here in the first place.Plus, we get the added bonus of throwing a wrench in the RB-RB-RB- scheme, which has, for years, been the single dumbest thing going in FF. QB is the most important single position in the game, yet they've been an afterthought in most FF leagues for decades. Now, with the potential for Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees numbers, and some leagues tweaking the rules a little bit, they're getting somewhat of their just due.
 
This is what the NFL wants. Fast paced, higher scoring games. Quickest way to get that is encourage passing. We are witnessing a new breed of NFL. More concerning is how the NFL is overprotecting the offense. It's almost impossible to stop the offenses now with all the new rules and phony roughing the passer calls if you stare at Tom Brady's Beiber hair too long.
This is completely false, and based more on ESPN cliches than reality:
It could be that Gillman passing concepts radically reduced interceptions (timing routes, etc...) and Walsh concepts radically increased completion % (horizontal game), both of these factors happen to cause a rise in passer rating (Walsh concepts are built off of Gillman concepts).Passer rating does not measure the quality of the passer, it measures the effectiveness of his average pass. The passing game has become more effective over time as these schematic concepts have filtered through the league. It took to the 90's until Gillman concepts reached league-wide saturation, and to the 00's until Walsh concepts reached league wide saturation.And this fact is readily visible given that the lineage of Walsh QB's, prior to widespread dissemination of his concepts, utterly dominate the NFL in the rating statistic from the point where he is elevated to offensive designer in the late 60's.Yet some are so convinced that rules are the culprit for the change in stats. The passing game has become more and more effective over time because of advances in passing, not because rules are making it easier. It should be no surprise that a statistic meant to measure pass effectiveness is rising over time given that advances in passing are making passing attacks more effective.The QB explosion of the 80's (Marino does not own the record for passing yards per game, that honor goes to Fouts in the strike shortened 1982) has a lot to do with passing rule changes. For bulk stats it also happens that the LBE rule changes correspond with an extra 2 games a year. But it also has a lot to do with the fact that NFL defenses in the 1980's had some serious structural flaws that were easily exploited by creative offensive coordinators.There has been this pervasive run to win concept in the NFL among coaches and talking heads forever. A lot of coaches are overly conservative by nature. Passing has been the most effective way to move the ball going back to the 1940's. In the 70's this whole run first philosophy really took over the NFL. The run pass ratio flipped in the 80's but had been trending that way since the 40's. However the flip almost occurred in the late 60's, for some reason there was a strong regression to the run in the 70's.Born in the 70's (at the pro level) were the over/undershifted 4-3, the fairbanks bullogh 3-4, and the 46. All 3 were designed primarily to stop the run. By the 80's the F-B 3-4 rose as the dominant defense in the NFL. Defenses didn't really use sub-packages much at all. When Fouts came out 4 wide with his Super Chargers offense he was able to slice through run defenses of the day like they weren't even there. Same thing with Marino and his passing attack and Montana and his.Defenses in the early-mid 80's had no answer for teams that based their offense on non-play action passing. Defenses were designed to stop the run and the play action pass that comes with it. Too many analysts (and coaches) are still stuck in this stupid rut that the 70's created where the whole of their understanding revolves around the run and the play action pass. At first DC's had no answer for teams who based their offensive attack around the pass, pass to run teams. They adapted over time.While the rule changes certainly played a big role in the passing explositon of the 80's, just as much to blame is the strange tactics of the 70's and how ######ed it made some coaches, and how easily some creative coaches (and their QB's) were able to slice through the things they were doing.
There is way too much focus on "rule changes" as the engine of change and too little focus on the evolution of tactics and strategy.For example, in Luckman's day, pass defense was a relatively new concept.In the early-mid 80's, specialized situational pass defenses were not all that evolved and were barely used. Fouts was able to slice through defenses like they didn't exist because the predominantely run focused defenses of the day had little answer for his aerial attack.Passer rating is not rising because of "rule changes". Precision timing passing, the fast horizontal game, and players trickling up that have been in pass heavy systems their whole life (the switch to pass first offenses at the college, HS, and pee wee levels is a very recent phenomenon) have significantly decreased the rate of interceptions and increased completion % at the pro level, likewise rating has risen. Some of the rule changes/emphasis in the last decade may have tweaked things slightly, but they are a very small piece of why things are occurring, even though some believe that the evil Goodell's rule changes or the Manning rules are solely to blame, which is very incorrect.
 
QB drops back on his own 30 and launches a deep pass into opposing defence side of the field.

Possible outcomes:

1. Incomplete pass

2. Completed pass

3. Defensive pass interference

4. Offensive pass interference

5. Interception

The worst thing that could happen is #5, and if it happens, who cares. You just give the ball back to the other team deep in their zone.

If you don't achieve the objective of #2, then there is statistically a good chance of getting outcome #3.

Very HIGH REWARD, and very LOW RISK in throwing the deep ball.

Over time, I think that defenses will evolve and adapt to stop high powered offences. It's evolution, and cyclical. Don't be surprised if 10 years from now defense will dominate the NFL.

 
Take this history from the NHL:

Throughout the entire 1980s and early 1990s, offences dominated hockey. Powerfull offences existed and championships were won based on offensive domination. Defense did not win championships during this period.

Late 90s and throughout most of the 2000's, defense started to take over and teams mastered a defensive style called the "neutral zone trap".

A very boring, but EXTREMELY effective means of suffocating offences. The strategy was proven to work as several teams won championships employing this strategy.

Therefore, defensive coaches and strategists will get creative and find ways to stop offences in the NFL. It's simply evolution.

ANd it's cyclical in some respects.

 

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