Is the 2024 RB Class really that bad? (1 Viewer)

[JoeJoe88]

If you didn't shore up your RB position in the (dynasty) offseason... there's not a ton of help here. This was a pretty brutal RB fantasy draft (I'm looking at you, Dallas).

I think it’s better than you think.

It always is.

But it’s also a total crap shoot.

I don’t know. Opportunity is huge. I don’t think Brooks will be full strength until next year but I do think he will be game ready to start the season. So he should get plenty of opportunities.

Vidal should win the starting job though Gus Bus could battle for it so training camp will be interesting and important.

I assume you have seen the quotes from the Rams about Corum. I believe that he is the best back in this class and I would have preferred he ended up in Dallas. I think Kyren is decent in short yardage but Corum is exceptional.

3-4 will produce top 24 numbers this year.

Trey Benson Arizona
Ray Davis Buffalo
Marshawn Lloyd Green Bay
Tyrone Tracy New York Giants

This seems extremely optimistic.

Maybe. How many do you think will finish in the Top 24?

I’m not sure. But considering last years class was much stronger at the position and it only had 3(I believe Achane was barely top 24), forecasting this one to eclipse last years seems optimistic.

Connor is still a Cardinal, James Cook is still a Bill, and Jacobs is now a Packer. I can understand being optimistic about some of these guys long-term, but I don’t see a path to RB2 production for most of them out of the gate, barring injury.

Gun to my head, I’d guess one of them finishes top 24, but your guess is as good as mine as to who that is.

 

[JohnnyU]

Clean ACL tear and no damage to other ligaments. No worries

Questionable talent level tho.

Ok

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Clean ACL tear and no damage to other ligaments. No worries

Questionable talent level tho.

Ok

Actually he’s my favorite RB in this draft. The wink was to indicate sarcasm. Irritated he went to CAR.

 

[@GregoryLKellogg]

If you didn't shore up your RB position in the (dynasty) offseason... there's not a ton of help here. This was a pretty brutal RB fantasy draft (I'm looking at you, Dallas).

I think it’s better than you think.

It always is.

But it’s also a total crap shoot.

I don’t know. Opportunity is huge. I don’t think Brooks will be full strength until next year but I do think he will be game ready to start the season. So he should get plenty of opportunities.

Vidal should win the starting job though Gus Bus could battle for it so training camp will be interesting and important.

I assume you have seen the quotes from the Rams about Corum. I believe that he is the best back in this class and I would have preferred he ended up in Dallas. I think Kyren is decent in short yardage but Corum is exceptional.

3-4 will produce top 24 numbers this year.

Trey Benson Arizona
Ray Davis Buffalo
Marshawn Lloyd Green Bay
Tyrone Tracy New York Giants

I’m nowhere near as confident as you are with the bolded. I see a lot of role players and committees.

I’m more confident that a couple of these dudes will cap the ceiling of some of the players dynasty managers were counting on for big seasons.

I appreciate your enthusiasm for what I see as a very sub-par RB class.

I understand your reticence. I agree that most people think this is a subpar class. I just think that if these rookie backs are so bad, how are they going to cut into the other backs’ production? If they suck, they won’t play. If they play, they have to produce to stay on the field. Pretty much every year you have 3-4 rookie backs who produce. I don’t think this year is any different.

See, there’s the disconnect,

Respectfully, I’m not saying they’re bad, or that they suck. Far from it. I believe they have skills.

Anyone with enough skill to get drafted doesn’t suck. But the skills they do have can be used in roles.

Take the dude in BUF, for example. 20 lbs heavier than Cook. The Bills have shown a propensity for bringing in mediocre “size RBs”, whether it’s to keep Cook fresh, or spare Allen a little wear and tear in short yardage, that is a role.

And those are potentially touches that Cook won’t get. And some of them will be high leverage touches, like RZ/GL.

So yeah - dude doesn’t suck. He’s unlikely to be a 3-down back any time soon, but he can sure hurt Cook’s FF value.

NFL is all about role players at RB now. Wave of the future (and largely present)

These dudes might be good receivers, or good short yardage, or good as scat backs.

There’s only one football.

True but most backs have shared the ball for at least five and likely 10 years. Most teams carry four backs. That’s 128 RBs. Using Detroit as an example, they spent a first round pick on a RB last year.

Detroit had 500 rushing attempts last year. 13 players had at least one carry. But sticking only with the RB, Detroit had six backs carry the ball. Here was their distribution.

Montgomery 219 (49%)
Gibbs 182 (41%)
Reynolds 41 (9%)
Knight 3 (<1%)
Ozigbo 3 (<1%)
Cabinda 1 (<1%)

Cabinda is a FB. And those are RB carries only. There were 51 non RB carries.

Who is a true bellcow RB now? CMC? Henry?

Henry 280 (63% - 23%)
McCaffrey 272 (55% - 15%)
White 272 (62% - 7%)
Etienne 267 (59% - 11%)

The percentages are for the player listed and the second most used RB. For the Jags, QB Trevor Lawrence had the second most carries not Tank Bigsby who got 11% of the carries.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Who is a true bellcow RB now? CMC? Henry?

Henry 280 (63% - 23%)
McCaffrey 272 (55% - 15%)
White 272 (62% - 7%)
Etienne 267 (59% - 11%)

The percentages are for the player listed and the second most used RB. For the Jags, QB Trevor Lawrence had the second most carries not Tank Bigsby who got 11% of the carries.

Making even more of a case why these rookies won’t crack the top 24 this year.

 

[@GregoryLKellogg]

Who is a true bellcow RB now? CMC? Henry?

Henry 280 (63% - 23%)
McCaffrey 272 (55% - 15%)
White 272 (62% - 7%)
Etienne 267 (59% - 11%)

The percentages are for the player listed and the second most used RB. For the Jags, QB Trevor Lawrence had the second most carries not Tank Bigsby who got 11% of the carries.

Making even more of a case why these rookies won’t crack the top 24 this year.

I have to disagree - vehemently. More committees means a lower threshold for top 24. Last year RB24 scored 190.7 points (Achane). There were an additional five backs within 10 points. Since injures (and week 18) factor in, looking at ppg shows De’Andre Swift at #24 with 12.5 ppg. Another eight players were within 1 ppg of the spot.

Four years ago, the 24th best RB scored 13.5 ppg (176.0 - one less game). Sleeper only goes back to 2020 but I would bet you an adult beverage that if you went back to 2013 you would find several fewer backs within striking distance of RB24 and a bigger split between 1 and 24.

 

[KellysHeroes]

not sure if it was brought up already, but aren't the big time College RBs staying in school because they make so much NIL money? If thats the case I can't blame them since the NFL is being so cheap with its vet RBs

 

[@GregoryLKellogg]

not sure if it was brought up already, but aren't the big time College RBs staying in school because they make so much NIL money? If thats the case I can't blame them since the NFL is being so cheap with its vet RBs

Corum had to come out - his eligibility was up. His NIL was $325K.

Players picked in the third round can expect to make between $5.5 million and $6 million in their rookie deals, which also include an option for a fifth year.

So no, I don’t think money is the determining issue for players who expect to be drafted in the first two days.

Heck, even sixth round picks can expect about $1/year.

Fourth-round picks can expect deals between $4.5 million and $4.8 million, while players selected in the sixth round of the NFL Draft can expect to earn around $4 millionover their four-year contracts.

 

[32 Counter Pass]

Who is a true bellcow RB now? CMC? Henry?

Henry 280 (63% - 23%)
McCaffrey 272 (55% - 15%)
White 272 (62% - 7%)
Etienne 267 (59% - 11%)

The percentages are for the player listed and the second most used RB. For the Jags, QB Trevor Lawrence had the second most carries not Tank Bigsby who got 11% of the carries.

Making even more of a case why these rookies won’t crack the top 24 this year.

I have to disagree - vehemently. More committees means a lower threshold for top 24. Last year RB24 scored 190.7 points (Achane). There were an additional five backs within 10 points. Since injures (and week 18) factor in, looking at ppg shows De’Andre Swift at #24 with 12.5 ppg. Another eight players were within 1 ppg of the spot.

Four years ago, the 24th best RB scored 13.5 ppg (176.0 - one less game). Sleeper only goes back to 2020 but I would bet you an adult beverage that if you went back to 2013 you would find several fewer backs within striking distance of RB24 and a bigger split between 1 and 24.

You can drill further using fftoday stats feature.

 

[massraider]

How does what we know now changes things for this class?

Tex

It appears that yes, this class is that bad.

In general, I didn't feel like the possible marriages that could have gotten me excited happened.

Jonathan Brooks to CAR, OK.

Corum, Lloyd, Wright, all not great spots. All the jibber jabber about them, they were brought in to be the 2nd or 3rd guy in the rotation.

If we talking about Ray Davis here, then this class does not look very helpful at the current moment

 

[Wigglytuff's Gruff]

I thought we'd end up with a handful of guys in the mid 2nd round (single QB) worth taking a flyer on. I think they'd basically all be a reach there now outside of Benson, who probably goes a bit earlier than that anyway.

Brooks to the Panthers is a good landing spot. I like it anyway. Clear RB1 path, team made a move to get him, solid draft capital in a range where you often get top 12 performers.

A very easy selection for me at 1.05 in a 14 team standard anyway

 

[@GregoryLKellogg]

Who is a true bellcow RB now? CMC? Henry?

Henry 280 (63% - 23%)
McCaffrey 272 (55% - 15%)
White 272 (62% - 7%)
Etienne 267 (59% - 11%)

The percentages are for the player listed and the second most used RB. For the Jags, QB Trevor Lawrence had the second most carries not Tank Bigsby who got 11% of the carries.

Making even more of a case why these rookies won’t crack the top 24 this year.

I have to disagree - vehemently. More committees means a lower threshold for top 24. Last year RB24 scored 190.7 points (Achane). There were an additional five backs within 10 points. Since injures (and week 18) factor in, looking at ppg shows De’Andre Swift at #24 with 12.5 ppg. Another eight players were within 1 ppg of the spot.

Four years ago, the 24th best RB scored 13.5 ppg (176.0 - one less game). Sleeper only goes back to 2020 but I would bet you an adult beverage that if you went back to 2013 you would find several fewer backs within striking distance of RB24 and a bigger split between 1 and 24.

You can drill further using fftoday stats feature.

Please do

 

[TheWinz]

# of rookies in top 24 PPR (total points, not PPG)
2023 - 2
2022 - 1
2021 - 2
2020 - 5
2019 - 3
2018 - 3
2017 - 4
2016 - 2
2015 - 3
2014 - 1

 

[Soulfly3]

yes, it stinks. but 1-2 guys will emerge and be good for fantasy just because that's how it works.

problem is im not willing to waste either of my first 2rnds of picks to find out which one that'll be.

2.5 months ago and this rings as true, or truer than ever.

my man in CAR the likeliest to be good... but I legitimately couldn't tell you who will emerge, because you're couting competely on an injury to the current starter.
my 1.07 will be spent on a WR, even tho I do have a bit of a need at RB

 

[Ben & Jerry's]

not sure if it was brought up already, but aren't the big time College RBs staying in school because they make so much NIL money? If thats the case I can't blame them since the NFL is being so cheap with its vet RBs

Corum had to come out - his eligibility was up. His NIL was $325K.

Players picked in the third round can expect to make between $5.5 million and $6 million in their rookie deals, which also include an option for a fifth year.

So no, I don’t think money is the determining issue for players who expect to be drafted in the first two days.

Heck, even sixth round picks can expect about $1/year.

Fourth-round picks can expect deals between $4.5 million and $4.8 million, while players selected in the sixth round of the NFL Draft can expect to earn around $4 millionover their four-year contracts.

The 5th year option is only for players drafted in Round 1

 

[SoBeDad]

Corum, Lloyd, Wright, all not great spots. All the jibber jabber about them, they were brought in to be the 2nd or 3rd guy in the rotation.

Jaylen Wright is a hold for 2025 when he could share duties with Achane, assuming Mostert at age 33 will be gone. He could have a KO return role this year if Barrios gets cut or is inactive due to the emergence of Ezukanma or one of the late round WRs, or even OBJ which I think is unlikely.

He was a value pick, in the mid 4th round. He's more than just a straight speed guy, he has very good vision. The forgotten guy may be Chris Brooks who had a great 2023 preseason and did well in limited carries. At 223 lbs, I thought he was a good future complement to Achane. For a tradeup into the 4th round, I thought there was better value at S, CB.

 

[@GregoryLKellogg]

# of rookies in top 24 PPR (total points, not PPG)
2023 - 2
2022 - 1
2021 - 2
2020 - 5
2019 - 3
2018 - 3
2017 - 4
2016 - 2
2015 - 3
2014 - 1

PPR?

 

[@GregoryLKellogg]

not sure if it was brought up already, but aren't the big time College RBs staying in school because they make so much NIL money? If thats the case I can't blame them since the NFL is being so cheap with its vet RBs

Corum had to come out - his eligibility was up. His NIL was $325K.

Players picked in the third round can expect to make between $5.5 million and $6 million in their rookie deals, which also include an option for a fifth year.

So no, I don’t think money is the determining issue for players who expect to be drafted in the first two days.

Heck, even sixth round picks can expect about $1/year.

Fourth-round picks can expect deals between $4.5 million and $4.8 million, while players selected in the sixth round of the NFL Draft can expect to earn around $4 millionover their four-year contracts.

The 5th year option is only for players drafted in Round 1

Just copied that from Google. It came from this Forbes article.

NFL Draft: Here’s How Much Second And Third-Round Picks Will Make In Rookie Contracts

The top pick in the NFL draft is estimated to make over $38.5 million in their rookie contract.

www.forbes.com

 

[KellysHeroes]

not sure if it was brought up already, but aren't the big time College RBs staying in school because they make so much NIL money? If thats the case I can't blame them since the NFL is being so cheap with its vet RBs

Corum had to come out - his eligibility was up. His NIL was $325K.

Players picked in the third round can expect to make between $5.5 million and $6 million in their rookie deals, which also include an option for a fifth year.

So no, I don’t think money is the determining issue for players who expect to be drafted in the first two days.

Heck, even sixth round picks can expect about $1/year.

Fourth-round picks can expect deals between $4.5 million and $4.8 million, while players selected in the sixth round of the NFL Draft can expect to earn around $4 millionover their four-year contracts.

The 5th year option is only for players drafted in Round 1

Just copied that from Google. It came from this Forbes article.

NFL Draft: Here’s How Much Second And Third-Round Picks Will Make In Rookie Contracts

The top pick in the NFL draft is estimated to make over $38.5 million in their rookie contract.

www.forbes.com

thats great and all, and I'm glad they make good money... but the problem is when they try to get that 2nd contract and owners nickel an dimed them; plus with RBs there is no big "3rd" contract. So Yeah, their going to get millions entering the draft but if they stay an extra yr in school they'll make some extra cash anyway because they know once they hit age 26ish owners will be bullish on their needs.

 

[Bazinga!]

yes, it stinks. but 1-2 guys will emerge and be good for fantasy just because that's how it works.

problem is im not willing to waste either of my first 2rnds of picks to find out which one that'll be.

2.5 months ago and this rings as true, or truer than ever.

my man in CAR the likeliest to be good... but I legitimately couldn't tell you who will emerge, because you're couting competely on an injury to the current starter.
my 1.07 will be spent on a WR, even tho I do have a bit of a need at RB

Brooks should be the pick if he is there at 1.7, especially if you need RB help

 

[Soulfly3]

yes, it stinks. but 1-2 guys will emerge and be good for fantasy just because that's how it works.

problem is im not willing to waste either of my first 2rnds of picks to find out which one that'll be.

2.5 months ago and this rings as true, or truer than ever.

my man in CAR the likeliest to be good... but I legitimately couldn't tell you who will emerge, because you're couting competely on an injury to the current starter.
my 1.07 will be spent on a WR, even tho I do have a bit of a need at RB

Brooks should be the pick if he is there at 1.7, especially if you need RB help

I've considered it, but I'm just not sold. Maybe that'll change, but maybe not...

I have saquon, jacobs, jerome ford and then some meddlers... So i do need some depth, but I feel the WRs are just a better buy at that price

 

[Bazinga!]

yes, it stinks. but 1-2 guys will emerge and be good for fantasy just because that's how it works.

problem is im not willing to waste either of my first 2rnds of picks to find out which one that'll be.

2.5 months ago and this rings as true, or truer than ever.

my man in CAR the likeliest to be good... but I legitimately couldn't tell you who will emerge, because you're couting competely on an injury to the current starter.
my 1.07 will be spent on a WR, even tho I do have a bit of a need at RB

Brooks should be the pick if he is there at 1.7, especially if you need RB help

I've considered it, but I'm just not sold. Maybe that'll change, but maybe not...

I have saquon, jacobs, jerome ford and then some meddlers... So i do need some depth, but I feel the WRs are just a better buy at that price

I have 1.8 in one league and I am praying the 1.5, 1.6 and 1.7 owners all feel the same way.

 

[TheWinz]

# of rookies in top 24 PPR (total points, not PPG)
2023 - 2
2022 - 1
2021 - 2
2020 - 5
2019 - 3
2018 - 3
2017 - 4
2016 - 2
2015 - 3
2014 - 1

PPR?

Points per reception

 

[nightmare]

I've been playing in dynasty since 1993.
I have the 2.01(no first) in a draft and will not be taking ANY RB that "falls" to me.
The WR's and a few QB's are too strong this year to say "do not reach".

Carolina will have a decent run game and Brooks was a legit later 2nd round pick,
so 2.14 wasn't that much of a stretch. In the 1st and 2nd round of drafts you take the
talent and KNOW you will get rewarded sooner or later.

There are only 4 players drafted ahead of him- Nix, Polk, Legette, and Penix that I would pass up
for Brooks. Brooks will be gone before this pick and for that I'll say "thank you" to whomever takes him.

 

[Ilov80s]

I've been playing in dynasty since 1993.
I have the 2.01(no first) in a draft and will not be taking ANY RB that "falls" to me.
The WR's and a few QB's are too strong this year to say "do not reach".

Carolina will have a decent run game and Brooks was a legit later 2nd round pick,
so 2.14 wasn't that much of a stretch. In the 1st and 2nd round of drafts you take the
talent and KNOW you will get rewarded sooner or later.

There are only 4 players drafted ahead of him- Nix, Polk, Legette, and Penix that I would pass up
for Brooks. Brooks will be gone before this pick and for that I'll say "thank you" to whomever takes him.

If I couldn’t get one top QBs (I’ll let each person decide for themselves where that line is drawn), Bowers or big 3 WRs, I would be looking to just trade out of this draft completely. It’s not a strong class at RB and the non Harrison, Nabers, Odunze WRs are overrated.

 

[Ben & Jerry's]

yes, it stinks. but 1-2 guys will emerge and be good for fantasy just because that's how it works.

problem is im not willing to waste either of my first 2rnds of picks to find out which one that'll be.

2.5 months ago and this rings as true, or truer than ever.

my man in CAR the likeliest to be good... but I legitimately couldn't tell you who will emerge, because you're couting competely on an injury to the current starter.
my 1.07 will be spent on a WR, even tho I do have a bit of a need at RB

Brooks should be the pick if he is there at 1.7, especially if you need RB help

I've considered it, but I'm just not sold. Maybe that'll change, but maybe not...

I have saquon, jacobs, jerome ford and then some meddlers... So i do need some depth, but I feel the WRs are just a better buy at that price

I would grab Marshawn Lloyd if you can

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

It's not that the RBs are that bad, it's that it is now firmly a passing league. When players like Mcaffrey and Henry are considered role players who can make a contribution to an offense, you know times have changed.

The bell cow is dead.

 

[Ilov80s]

It's not that the RBs are that bad, it's that it is now firmly a passing league. When players like Mcaffrey and Henry are considered role players who can make a contribution to an offense, you know times have changed.

The bell cow is dead.

I don’t think I would call players with 300 touches role players

 

[@GregoryLKellogg]

yes, it stinks. but 1-2 guys will emerge and be good for fantasy just because that's how it works.

problem is im not willing to waste either of my first 2rnds of picks to find out which one that'll be.

2.5 months ago and this rings as true, or truer than ever.

my man in CAR the likeliest to be good... but I legitimately couldn't tell you who will emerge, because you're couting competely on an injury to the current starter.
my 1.07 will be spent on a WR, even tho I do have a bit of a need at RB

Brooks should be the pick if he is there at 1.7, especially if you need RB help

I've considered it, but I'm just not sold. Maybe that'll change, but maybe not...

I have saquon, jacobs, jerome ford and then some meddlers... So i do need some depth, but I feel the WRs are just a better buy at that price

I would grab Marshawn Lloyd if you can

Corum for me. Corum is bigger and faster than Williams. And Williams missed five weeks (four games) in the middle of last season (broken hand required surgery). I can see a committee approach to save wear and tear on both guys.

 

[JohnnyU]

yes, it stinks. but 1-2 guys will emerge and be good for fantasy just because that's how it works.

problem is im not willing to waste either of my first 2rnds of picks to find out which one that'll be.

2.5 months ago and this rings as true, or truer than ever.

my man in CAR the likeliest to be good... but I legitimately couldn't tell you who will emerge, because you're couting competely on an injury to the current starter.
my 1.07 will be spent on a WR, even tho I do have a bit of a need at RB

Brooks should be the pick if he is there at 1.7, especially if you need RB help

I've considered it, but I'm just not sold. Maybe that'll change, but maybe not...

I have saquon, jacobs, jerome ford and then some meddlers... So i do need some depth, but I feel the WRs are just a better buy at that price

I would grab Marshawn Lloyd if you can

Corum for me. Corum is bigger and faster than Williams. And Williams missed five weeks (four games) in the middle of last season (broken hand required surgery). I can see a committee approach to save wear and tear on both guys.

I'm thinking you may be right about RBBC to some extent for these two, but McVay has shown that once he has trust in a RB he gives them anywhere from 75% to 80% of the touches. That may not change in 2024 barring injury to Kyren Williams. If that percentage drops significantly it can't be good for Williams and probably hurts both for fantasy.

 

[Soulfly3]

I like Corum, but at 1.07? I can't be pulling moves like that

 

[Wigglytuff's Gruff]

yeah no chance at 1.07

 

[Tau837]

Vidal should win the starting job though Gus Bus could battle for it so training camp will be interesting and important.

Just ran across this thread. As a Chargers fan, I doubt Vidal will win the starting job coming out of training camp.

I think Vidal could be a solid long term fantasy RB, but not in 2024, barring injuries ahead of him. Dobbins is only under contract for 2024, and both Edwards and Spiller can be released next offseason with a minimal cap hit. So if Vidal impresses in 2024, he may have a great opportunity in 2025.

But in 2024, Vidal is going to enter training camp 3rd or 4th in the RB pecking order. Given the history OC Roman has with Edwards, I expect him to lead the team in RB snaps and touches if he stays healthy. If Dobbins gets and stays healthy, the rest will likely be a messy committee. If Dobbins isn't healthy, Vidal may be the clear RB2. It remains to be seen how valuable that will be in the 2024 version of the Harbaugh/Roman offense.

 

[zamboni]

It's not that the RBs are that bad, it's that it is now firmly a passing league. When players like Mcaffrey and Henry are considered role players who can make a contribution to an offense, you know times have changed.

The bell cow is dead.

The bell cow isn’t dead, but definitely much fewer of them - for good reason given the pounding the position takes.

 

[Ilov80s]

It's not that the RBs are that bad, it's that it is now firmly a passing league. When players like Mcaffrey and Henry are considered role players who can make a contribution to an offense, you know times have changed.

The bell cow is dead.

The bell cow isn’t dead, but definitely much fewer of them - for good reason given the pounding the position takes.

Which makes the few bell cows who do exist more valuable than ever

 

[massraider]

I look at those backs scheduled to go in the 2nd round of rookie drafts, and I could see any back after Benson getting their value wiped out by one of the huge crop of good RBs next year.

I know it is a fool's errand to plan on something like that, but I am guessing there will always be a WR I like more than whatever top back is there.

Imma grab me some Tyrone Tracey tho