Is there a clear #1 this year (1 Viewer)

[The Jacket]

Again, for the record, I have Shaun Alexander as my #1 fantasy player for 2006 and have revised my predictions for Larry Johnson.

My above comments are simply beliefs which lead me to thinking that he'll have a very nice season, with numbers similar to (or better) than last season. What I don't get is the "likeliness" that he's going to lose so many as 250+ yards and five+ touchdowns. That just doesn't make sense to me.

If it were Trent Green or one of the Chiefs' wide receivers we were talking about, fine. But the very thing people knock Edwards with and use against the Chiefs as a team offense is the thing that would propel Johnson to a dominant 2006.

 

[PahtyTom]

One thing I realized when doing research was that LT and SA's goal to go stats were much better than LJs. LJ's were certainly above average, but LT's were great and SA's were through the roof. LJ had like 35 carries for 10 tds and 65 yards, LT had 32 for 15 tds and 78 yards, and SA had 35 for 21 tds and 80 yards. I don't want to delve too deeply in to what could be a fairly non-important stat difference, but I could see LJ be used as a decoy at the goal line more this year because he wasn't always money in the bank down there (albeit he was good, just not great). And I know he'll have a full season this year which means more chances in goal to go which will mean more tds etc, but if you look at his number of carries, 336, how many more carries do you really think he's going to get? LT had 339 and he started every game last year. I would say maximum another 35 for 370 total. Yes he only started 9 games last year or whatever, but he got a seasons workload in one way or another and those were his stats. They were awesome stats, but its foolish to think he can improve on them simply because he will start more games this year.

 

[joffer]

And I know he'll have a full season this year which means more chances in goal to go which will mean more tds etc, but if you look at his number of carries, 336, how many more carries do you really think he's going to get? LT had 339 and he started every game last year. I would say maximum another 35 for 370 total.

i'd say that's about right, 365-375

Yes he only started 9 games last year or whatever, but he got a seasons workload in one way or another and those were his stats. They were awesome stats, but its foolish to think he can improve on them simply because he will start more games this year.

how is it foolish to think his totals will be better when he's starting almost twice as many games? i'd say it's foolish to expect the same per game numbers, but 1800/20 is about a 25% reduction in his per game scoring.

 

[CalBear]

1.) Where did you get the numbers for Gonzalez' targets?

Data Dominator.

2.) Are you suggesting that the Chiefs will shy away from Johnson in the redzone because, (a) Tony Gonzalez will bounce back and take a lot of touches from him; or (b) the Chiefs will simply not run the ball in the red zone as much (as they didn't from 2002-2004, as you pointed out)?

It is very likely that LJ will have fewer red zone rushes and targets in 2006 than he did in 2005; that will affect his TD numbers.

If true, I concur. But I fail to see why it is "very likely" that Johnson's red zone numbers will decrease.He's going to get a similar amount of carries as he did last year; he has less competition for red zone touches than last year; and his coach puts more of an emphasis on the running game than last year's regime did.

There is no way that Edwards puts more of an emphasis on the running game than Vermeil did in KC. KC ranked in the top 7 in rushing attempts in each of the past two years, and top 5 in red zone rushing attempts; the Jets ranked 27th in rushing attempts in 2005. (They ranked third in 2004 when Martin won the rushing title, but 29th in 2003 and 27th in 2002). The most red zone carries Martin ever got was in 2004, when he had 51 carries and 3 targets; the rest of his time under Edwards, he hasn't had more than 42 red zone carries. There are very few coaches who will give a running back the opportunity to score 20 TDs; Herm Edwards does not appear to be one of them.

 

[joffer]

anyone know the details of LJ's current contract?

 

[The Jacket]

anyone know the details of LJ's current contract?

Rookie contract, 7-years, $8.847 million with a $3.31 million signing bonus. If he reaches certain playing time benchmarks, the deal voids to five years and is worth $6.7 million. He has annual workout bonuses of $50,000.