Is there a real chance LJ holds out? (1 Viewer)

[Dirty Weasel]

In a few recent mocks, LJ has slid as far as 8th. It made me wonder if vet RB's ever hold out. It's common for rookies to wait for that huge first contract, but what about vets? If history is on LJ's side, here is one example I found...

Emmitt Smith - Held out the first 2 games in 1993 (Dallas lost both games), then signed the largest RB contract of his generation (4 years, $13.6 million), and went on to win the rushing title (1486 yards). He finished as the top RB in fantasy football. And, oh yeah, it was his only year above 5 yards per carry (he finished at 5.3). He also won the MVP.

Can you think of any other big name vet RB's to holdout?

 

[doomsdaydoc]

cannot think of another, but this is a unique situation. He has so much to lose by not getting a new contract- if he gets hurt this season, he will lose out on what may be his only chance for a huge payday. It is very unusual for a player of his stature to be so underpaid.

 

[Colin Dowling]

"Not really"

 

[Dirty Weasel]

cannot think of another, but this is a unique situation. He has so much to lose by not getting a new contract- if he gets hurt this season, he will lose out on what may be his only chance for a huge payday. It is very unusual for a player of his stature to be so underpaid.

This is not a unique situation at all. It happens all the time. That's why I wanted to see if anyone could name a few vets that actually held out.

 

[Dirty Weasel]

This thread has 64 views and no one can name another bigtime vet RB to hold out in the last 15 years (and that was only for 2 games)? I am beginning to think LJ's holdout is gonna become fantasy gold for someone at around pick 1.6 or later in many drafts.

 

[[icon]]

I am beginning to think LJ's holdout is gonna become fantasy gold for someone at around pick 1.6 or later in many drafts.

Let's keep our babymakers in our pants here fellas. "Fantasy Gold?"At 1.6 or later?LJ has been considered 1.3-1.6 from go. So he drops to 1.8? Hoo-#######-ray. I've gained a whopping 0.25 fantasy points per game. I better PM BGP.....

 

[Micon]

I am beginning to think LJ's holdout is gonna become fantasy gold for someone at around pick 1.6 or later in many drafts.

Let's keep our babymakers in our pants here fellas. "Fantasy Gold?"At 1.6 or later?LJ has been considered 1.3-1.6 from go. So he drops to 1.8? Hoo-#######-ray. I've gained a whopping 0.25 fantasy points per game. I better PM BGP.....

Where do you get .25 fantasy PPG? Hes been about 6 Fantasy PPGs ahead of the #7 fantasy RB for the last 2 years, which is pretty significant.

 

[David Dodds]

I definitely think he holds out UNLESS the Chiefs offer him something close to market value. His case is very unique in that most teams try to lock up top talent like LJ. The Chiefs however realize that they are rebuilding and don't want to pay him what he is worth. No way will LJ come in and play for his regular contract (will just show up week 10 so that he accrues the needed year of service).

People looking at history are missing a few key points:

- LJ is grossly underpaid.

- NFL contracts are sky-rocketing

- LJ increases his contract substantially by changing teams.

- Carl Peterson handles all of his star contracts like this. Remember when he was being harsh to Tony Gonzalez and/or Priest Holmes? The difference is those players wanted to stay in Kansas City. I don't think LJ does (This team is rebuilding, line is much worse, new QB, bad receivers, aging TE, etc). So unless KC is offering market value +, I don't see LJ getting remotely excited.

Most players of LJ's status would have been asking for a raise before last season. He has treated this with as much professionalism as possible. He now has back-to-back huge seasons and wants to get paid. Kansas City has NO LEVERAGE here. If they allow LJ to sit until week 10, the only option they have left going forward is to franchise LJ for 2008. But the fans won't want him back if he holds out until week 10. He will essentially force a trade as the owners will not want to pay the price of a franchised RB in 2008 on a rebuilding team.

Let someone else take LJ in the first round. I think this pick is high risk, minimal reward personally.

 

[DLeo]

this situation is between two very stubborn men..LJ is extremely stubborn and so is Peterson. LJ says he wants LT type money and that's it. Peterson says no way in he can or will give him that much money. So what else is their? A trade? Well KC wants a lot for LJ with 2 first rounds picks being first in any deal from what been talked about so far. No team is willing to give up 2 #1 picks for starters AND pay LJ what he wants....yes this has all the makings of a major hold up IMO. Peterson must know his team is not going to win the SB this year so its not like LJ is going to cost them a SB either. And by the time KC is ready to make a SB run LJ would likely be past his prime..this has all the makings of a hold out into the season and possibly until week 10 unless LJ comes down with his price. I don't know how much pressure the KC fans can or will put on the team about this. They will sell out every game with or without LJ and probably are sold out for their already..so what now? LJ must come down in price or else. I think KC should have put LJ on the block and got as much as they could have for him this off season when he still had the highest value. Their must be another owner like Snyder who will pay him what he wants..to bad for LJ the Danny boy already has to stud RBs or he would be OK maybe? LOL

 

[DLeo]

I definitely think he holds out UNLESS the Chiefs offer him something close to market value. His case is very unique in that most teams try to lock up top talent like LJ. The Chiefs however realize that they are rebuilding and don't want to pay him what he is worth. No way will LJ come in and play for his regular contract (will just show up week 10 so that he accrues the needed year of service).People looking at history are missing a few key points:- LJ is grossly underpaid.- NFL contracts are sky-rocketing- LJ increases his contract substantially by changing teams.- Carl Peterson handles all of his star contracts like this. Remember when he was being harsh to Tony Gonzalez and/or Priest Holmes? The difference is those players wanted to stay in Kansas City. I don't think LJ does (This team is rebuilding, line is much worse, new QB, bad receivers, aging TE, etc). So unless KC is offering market value +, I don't see LJ getting remotely excited. Most players of Lj status would have been asking for a raise before last season. He has treated this with as much professionalism as possible. He now has back-to-back huge seasons and wants to get paid. Kansas City has NO LEVERAGE here. If they allow LJ to sit until week 10, the only option they have left going forward is to franchise LJ for 2008. But the fans won't want him back if he holds out until week 10. He will essentially force a trade as the owners will not want to pay the price of a franchised RB in 2008 on a rebuilding team.Let someone else take LJ in the first round. I think this pick is high risk, minimal reward personally.

wow David, looks like me and you were on the same page at the exact same time..i do like the way you put things though! LOLt just below yours..this situation is between two very stubborn men..LJ is extremely stubborn and so is Peterson. LJ says he wants LT type money and that's it. Peterson says no way in hell can or will he can him that much money. So what else is there? A trade? Well KC wants a lot for LJ with 2 first rounds picks being first in any deal from what been talked about so far. No team is willing to give up 2 #1 picks for starters AND pay LJ what he wants....yes this has all the makings of a major hold up IMO. Peterson must know his team is not going to win the BB this year so its not like LJ is going to cost them a SB. And by the time KC is ready to make a SB run LJ would likely be past his prime..this has all the makings of a hold out into the season and possibly until week 10 unless LJ comes down with his price. I don't know how much pressure the KC fans can or will put on the team about this. They will sell out every game with or without LJ and probably are sold out for their already..so what now? LJ must come down in price or else.

 

[DLeo]

Also do not forget the just terrible stats for any RB who has had 370 plus touches the year before..none as is ZERO have had nearly as good a year after that many touches...well ONE had way back to Eric Dickerson has any RB repeated his numbers after a 370 carry season and most have been hurt the following year to boot. I for one am not touching LJ this season no matter where the pick may be and i play in at least 40-50 cash leagues.

 

[bcr8f]

In a few recent mocks, LJ has slid as far as 8th. It made me wonder if vet RB's ever hold out. It's common for rookies to wait for that huge first contract, but what about vets? If history is on LJ's side, here is one example I found...Emmitt Smith - Held out the first 2 games in 1993 (Dallas lost both games), then signed the largest RB contract of his generation (4 years, $13.6 million), and went on to win the rushing title (1486 yards). He finished as the top RB in fantasy football. And, oh yeah, it was his only year above 5 yards per carry (he finished at 5.3). He also won the MVP.Can you think of any other big name vet RB's to holdout?

Emmitt did 2 games, but then Haley smashed his helmet into the wall and started yelling at JJ. I doubt KC allows that. Michael Bennett is not a starting RB. LJ said the other day he misses TC. I got him at 1.08 recently.

 

[Dirty Weasel]

I definitely think he holds out UNLESS the Chiefs offer him something close to market value. His case is very unique in that most teams try to lock up top talent like LJ. The Chiefs however realize that they are rebuilding and don't want to pay him what he is worth. No way will LJ come in and play for his regular contract (will just show up week 10 so that he accrues the needed year of service).People looking at history are missing a few key points:- LJ is grossly underpaid.- NFL contracts are sky-rocketing- LJ increases his contract substantially by changing teams.- Carl Peterson handles all of his star contracts like this. Remember when he was being harsh to Tony Gonzalez and/or Priest Holmes? The difference is those players wanted to stay in Kansas City. I don't think LJ does (This team is rebuilding, line is much worse, new QB, bad receivers, aging TE, etc). So unless KC is offering market value +, I don't see LJ getting remotely excited. Most players of LJ's status would have been asking for a raise before last season. He has treated this with as much professionalism as possible. He now has back-to-back huge seasons and wants to get paid. Kansas City has NO LEVERAGE here. If they allow LJ to sit until week 10, the only option they have left going forward is to franchise LJ for 2008. But the fans won't want him back if he holds out until week 10. He will essentially force a trade as the owners will not want to pay the price of a franchised RB in 2008 on a rebuilding team.Let someone else take LJ in the first round. I think this pick is high risk, minimal reward personally.

David,That was very well put. I, along with everyone else here, value your opinion highly. I do not own LJ, but your response certainly begs the question - if LJ does not get market value + as you said, then whoever gets the bulk of the RB duties is being grossly overlooked/undervalued, right?At the FF Calculator mock site, in 15-round, 12-team drafts from July 31st thru August 2nd, LJ's ADP is still 1.3, while Michael Bennett is at 13.6, Priest Holmes is at 13.11, and Kolby Smith didn't even make the cut . At the Ansports mock site, in 20-round, 12-team drafts from July 29th thru August 4th, LJ is still at 1.3 (and has only fallen to 1.7 at the lowest in 61 drafts), Priest Holmes is at 12.5, Michael Bennett is at 15.3, and Kolby Smith didn't even make the cut.I'm not saying if LJ holds out that someone will come in and tear up the FF world. But, given your stance that you think LJ will hold out, who do you think is the smart choice for redraft leagues between the other RB's? The FBG depth chart, current as of August 4th, has LJ at RB1, Priest Holmes at RB2, Michael Bennett at RB3, and Kolby Smith at RB4.I'm sure many people who have upcoming drafts would love to hear your response to this, so please chime in when you have time, thank you.

 

[Routilla]

My draft is Sat. the 11th. I can keep 1 guy and planned on LJ. Now I'm trying to decide between the 3 rookies I drafted in Addai, Maroney and MJD. If there had been ANY dialogue between LJ and KC recently I would be optimistic a deal may get done. But zero news has me buggin'. I believe the proper word here is Crapola!

 

[fsufan]

this is why you need to draft as close to the start of the regular season as possible. my league drafts Sept. 4.

 

[phthalatemagic]

Kansas City has NO LEVERAGE here.

I don't understand this. I think KC has plenty of leverage. KC can go without Johnson and move on, but they still own rights to him, right? If Larry Johnson wants to play football for a living he must play for KC, or until KC allows him to play for another team. It's just a year or two rebuilding for KC, which all teams go through, but for Larry Johnson this is his life.

 

[Bayhawks]

I for one am not touching LJ this season no matter where the pick may be and i play in at least 40-50 cash leagues.

Not to hijack, but you play in 40-50 cash leagues? How the hell do you keep up with that many leagues, or for that matter, enjoy watching the games on Sunday?

 

[Kevin Ashcraft]

Kansas City has NO LEVERAGE here.

I don't understand this. I think KC has plenty of leverage. KC can go without Johnson and move on, but they still own rights to him, right? If Larry Johnson wants to play football for a living he must play for KC, or until KC allows him to play for another team. It's just a year or two rebuilding for KC, which all teams go through, but for Larry Johnson this is his life.

Exactly...Larry Johnson can be here in KC for 4 more seasons if the Chiefs so desire. A player can be franchised up to 3 times, IIRC, so to me it looks like Larry is at the disadvantage. Now, could Larry become the most pissed off man in America if the Chiefs do franchise him? Sure, but he still has to play by week 10 every season.And it is not as if KC has trouble finding RBs...look at who is in camp right now.Priest HolmesMichael BennettKolby SmithThose guys can get the job done for 10 weeks, and then let LJ run angry for awhile.One question though...In week 10 when he would have to report, what if he reports and refuses to play? What is KC's recourse?

 

[Raptors]

Why is the question limited to the RB position? Keenan McCardell held out into the season until he was traded/cut by the Bucs (I can't recall which it was atm).

But to answer the original question, I believe Emmitt was the only one.

There will be many more in the near future though if teams fail to recognize a player's future value. Rookie contracts are grossly underpaid (unless you're one of the very top picks), so it's likely that those playing under these contracts who have produced will be looking to sit out and sacrifice up to a $1mil to potentially get that extra $20+mil signing bonus. Look what happened to Javon Walker when he decided to end his holdout 2 years ago. Yes, he still got decent money from DEN, but the injury most certainly cost him millions. Financially, he would have been better off sticking to his guns.

I own LJ so I don't want him to hold-out into the season, but it's a very real possibility given the circumstances here. Name me 5 others RBs in the past 15 years that can even remotely be compared to his situation. It's a very small sample size.

 

[fatness]

Larry Johnson can be here in KC for 4 more seasons if the Chiefs so desire. A player can be franchised up to 3 times, IIRC, so to me it looks like Larry is at the disadvantage. Now, could Larry become the most pissed off man in America if the Chiefs do franchise him? Sure, but he still has to play by week 10 every season.

Theoretically that could happen but it won't because it's not realistic. The Chiefs will not franchise Johnson for 3 straight years for top-5-RB-money, and watch him sit out 10 games each of those years and play the last 6. That's throwing money in a hole, and it's not like the team doesn't have other needs.

 

[phthalatemagic]

One question though...In week 10 when he would have to report, what if he reports and refuses to play? What is KC's recourse?

That's a good question. I haven't read the rules on that, but I'm sure someone has. I'm certain it's been spelled out, right? It would be crazy if that were looked over.The only way I see LJ has having the leverage is complete nuclear war between himself and the Chiefs, where he retires and stops playing football. I know he is from a wealthy family and he made a decent chunk of money as a football player up until now. I do not know if he'd do that or not, considering he knows what sort of talent he has.It's interesting to see if that new football league gets going quickly - maybe LJ decides to play for them and ends up being the league's marquee player? Maybe the league would gain talent credibility by not enforcing legal rules and allowing guys like Pacman Jones and Mike Vick to play for them... I know hijack and pie in the sky ideas, but crazier things have happened. I give it a .000001% chance of happening.

 

[phthalatemagic]

Theoretically that could happen but it won't because it's not realistic. The Chiefs will not franchise Johnson for 3 straight years for top-5-RB-money, and watch him sit out 10 games each of those years and play the last 6. That's throwing money in a hole, and it's not like the team doesn't have other needs.

It's pro-rated money, so he isn't getting 16 games worth of pay for 6 games worth of play. THAT would be crazy!

 

[Domination]

Theoretically that could happen but it won't because it's not realistic. The Chiefs will not franchise Johnson for 3 straight years for top-5-RB-money, and watch him sit out 10 games each of those years and play the last 6. That's throwing money in a hole, and it's not like the team doesn't have other needs.

It's pro-rated money, so he isn't getting 16 games worth of pay for 6 games worth of play. THAT would be crazy!

You are correct, but I think at a Top 5 average being paid, LJ would play for the Chiefs. He might not be happy, but he will at least be getting paid close to what he is worth. The Chiefs wouldn't do that though, because if they were going to pay him that much, they would just do it now. On a side note: if people say he runs angry now, just wait til he plays with this going on.

 

[Ozymandias]

Theoretically that could happen but it won't because it's not realistic. The Chiefs will not franchise Johnson for 3 straight years for top-5-RB-money, and watch him sit out 10 games each of those years and play the last 6. That's throwing money in a hole, and it's not like the team doesn't have other needs.

It's pro-rated money, so he isn't getting 16 games worth of pay for 6 games worth of play. THAT would be crazy!

You are correct, but I think at a Top 5 average being paid, LJ would play for the Chiefs. He might not be happy, but he will at least be getting paid close to what he is worth. The Chiefs wouldn't do that though, because if they were going to pay him that much, they would just do it now. On a side note: if people say he runs angry now, just wait til he plays with this going on.

By 2008 I would imagine the average for the top five would be between $10 and $15 million a year.

 

[DBIsports]

Is there a chance that King Carl is just playing the waiting game until the 13th hour? He really has nothing to lose by icing LJ ,while making sure he is fresh to start the season; we know from the following quote Herm feels this way,any chace Carl feels the same way?................If he stays out for a while (in the preseason), it’s not going to matter,” Edwards said as he relaxed on a bench in the University of Wisconsin-River Falls hockey arena following a morning practice earlier this week. “At the end of the day, whether he comes in tomorrow or next week or next month, he’s going to carry the ball 25 times (a game).

“He knows the plays. He’s going to be in shape. He doesn’t have to get hit. He has to get in condition to run with the ball. But he can get that done. It’s no big deal. We’re just going to move on here and see what happens. I’m not in the negotiations, so I don’t know where that’s at. But I anticipate him being here (when the season starts).”

Johnson, who is coming off back-to-back 1,700-yard rushing seasons, and carried the ball an NFL-record 416 times last year, is entering the final year of his contract. He is scheduled to earn $1.7 million.

 

[gianmarco]

One question though...In week 10 when he would have to report, what if he reports and refuses to play? What is KC's recourse?

That's a good question. I haven't read the rules on that, but I'm sure someone has. I'm certain it's been spelled out, right? It would be crazy if that were looked over.The only way I see LJ has having the leverage is complete nuclear war between himself and the Chiefs, where he retires and stops playing football. I know he is from a wealthy family and he made a decent chunk of money as a football player up until now. I do not know if he'd do that or not, considering he knows what sort of talent he has.It's interesting to see if that new football league gets going quickly - maybe LJ decides to play for them and ends up being the league's marquee player? Maybe the league would gain talent credibility by not enforcing legal rules and allowing guys like Pacman Jones and Mike Vick to play for them... I know hijack and pie in the sky ideas, but crazier things have happened. I give it a .000001% chance of happening.

He could always go out on the field and just keep fumbling or not block until they were forced to pull him out. That would be hilarious to watch, actually.

 

[DLeo]

I for one am not touching LJ this season no matter where the pick may be and i play in at least 40-50 cash leagues.

Not to hijack, but you play in 40-50 cash leagues? How the hell do you keep up with that many leagues, or for that matter, enjoy watching the games on Sunday?

I do it as if were a job and just get it done, but keeping up is the hard part. Watching the games is no problem at all.

 

[DLeo]

Kansas City has NO LEVERAGE here.

I don't understand this. I think KC has plenty of leverage. KC can go without Johnson and move on, but they still own rights to him, right? If Larry Johnson wants to play football for a living he must play for KC, or until KC allows him to play for another team. It's just a year or two rebuilding for KC, which all teams go through, but for Larry Johnson this is his life.

Exactly...Larry Johnson can be here in KC for 4 more seasons if the Chiefs so desire. A player can be franchised up to 3 times, IIRC, so to me it looks like Larry is at the disadvantage. Now, could Larry become the most pissed off man in America if the Chiefs do franchise him? Sure, but he still has to play by week 10 every season.And it is not as if KC has trouble finding RBs...look at who is in camp right now.Priest HolmesMichael BennettKolby SmithThose guys can get the job done for 10 weeks, and then let LJ run angry for awhile.One question though...In week 10 when he would have to report, what if he reports and refuses to play? What is KC's recourse?

he wont refuse to play becasue ot would cause him to lose a year of his seinority and thats is why they come back week at for.

 

[DLeo]

Is there a chance that King Carl is just playing the waiting game until the 13th hour? He really has nothing to lose by icing LJ ,while making sure he is fresh to start the season; we know from the following quote Herm feels this way,any chace Carl feels the same way?................If he stays out for a while (in the preseason), it’s not going to matter,” Edwards said as he relaxed on a bench in the University of Wisconsin-River Falls hockey arena following a morning practice earlier this week. “At the end of the day, whether he comes in tomorrow or next week or next month, he’s going to carry the ball 25 times (a game).“He knows the plays. He’s going to be in shape. He doesn’t have to get hit. He has to get in condition to run with the ball. But he can get that done. It’s no big deal. We’re just going to move on here and see what happens. I’m not in the negotiations, so I don’t know where that’s at. But I anticipate him being here (when the season starts).”Johnson, who is coming off back-to-back 1,700-yard rushing seasons, and carried the ball an NFL-record 416 times last year, is entering the final year of his contract. He is scheduled to earn $1.7 million.

He will not get the money he is asking for now in KC, its just that simple. So no there is no chance Peterson is waiting it out and then give him what he wants

 

[One]

Also do not forget the just terrible stats for any RB who has had 370 plus touches the year before..none as is ZERO have had nearly as good a year after that many touches...well ONE had way back to Eric Dickerson has any RB repeated his numbers after a 370 carry season and most have been hurt the following year to boot. I for one am not touching LJ this season no matter where the pick may be and i play in at least 40-50 cash leagues.

 

[Nookular Power]

Does a guy like LJ really need camp? I admire him if he says he misses it...but for all the concern that he was overworked last year, maybe skipping camp (at least, a good chunk of it, and assuming he's working out on his own) is for the best. I remember the Bears when Walter was getting up there...he'd hardly play at all in the pre-season. Perhaps this is how he managed to stay at the top of his game for so long. Further, it was pointed out that Emmitt had his best year after his hold-out. For a good RB, it's not about timing, it's about instincts. At this point in his career, LJ has nothing new to learn in camp, and a lot to lose by risking injury. For my part, I'd be willing to bet on him, if he misses a good chunk of camp, doing *better* than he might otherwise. May just keep him fresher. Thoughts?

 

[The Kansas Comet]

Also do not forget the just terrible stats for any RB who has had 370 plus touches the year before..none as is ZERO have had nearly as good a year after that many touches...well ONE had way back to Eric Dickerson has any RB repeated his numbers after a 370 carry season and most have been hurt the following year to boot. I for one am not touching LJ this season no matter where the pick may be and i play in at least 40-50 cash leagues.

There are 4 other backs in history who have had 400 carry seasons: Eddie George, Jamal Anderson, James Wilder, and Eric Dickerson. In looking at their situations, I don't think you can determine that LJ will break down, because the situations aren't really similar. Citing Eddie George as a cautionary tale didn't apply accurately because George had carried/caught the ball 1474 times before his 400 carry season, plus another 683 rushes at Ohio State. By comparison, LJ has carried/caught the ball 989 times in the NFL to go with 460 rushes at Penn State. So George had twice the workload in his career compared to LJ. Jamal Anderson blew out his knee the next season - does an ACL injury happen because of a 400 carry season? That could have happened just as easily during his record season. ACL injuries happen all the time to players at different positions, some caused by contact, some not caused by contact. I can't see someone predicting LJ will do the same because it happened to Anderson.

James Wilder was the closest in comparison, having 1001 touches after 4 seasons - I think the problem was he was given another huge workload the next year (365 carries & 53 receptions). He also averaged under 4 yards per carry in each of those two seasons, which suggests he was taking a severe beating week in and week out. Not many runs where he burst into the secondary untouched, I imagine. LJ has had an easier go of it in terms of punishment to this point.

And Dickerson continued a Hall of Fame career after being traded to the Colts.

So can we please stop just saying "Ooh, a 400 carry season means LJ will have a terrible year next year"? f LJ struggles next season, I think it will be due to the fact that he is playing for a team with an unimaginative coach in Edwards, a rebuilding o-line, a very shaky quarteback spot, and only one receiving threat (Gonzalez), not because he had a 400 carry season. However, looking at those factors, I don't see the QB situation as being any worse than last year, I think the o-line may actually be better (yes, I know Will Shields is gone, but I think KC improved at both tackles), and adding Bowe (if they get him signed) couldn't hurt the passing game, even though he is a rookie.

As far as holding out, I imagine Peterson will eventually come to his senses and pay LJ something around $20-25 million in guaranteed money once he sees that Priest Holmes is nowhere close to the player he was 3 years ago, because otherwise he's lost all credibility with his fan base and his players, basically saying, "I think we're going to suck this year, so no sense paying a guy what he's worth. Instead, let's get a nice high draft pick and pay him more for having done nothing!" That would be tanking the Celtics and Grizzlies could be proud of.

 

[[icon]]

I am beginning to think LJ's holdout is gonna become fantasy gold for someone at around pick 1.6 or later in many drafts.

Let's keep our babymakers in our pants here fellas. "Fantasy Gold?"

At 1.6 or later?

LJ has been considered 1.3-1.6 from go. So he drops to 1.8? Hoo-#######-ray. I've gained a whopping 0.25 fantasy points per game. I better PM BGP.....

Where do you get .25 fantasy PPG? Hes been about 6 Fantasy PPGs ahead of the #7 fantasy RB for the last 2 years, which is pretty significant.

Past results to not redict future occurences. Looking at most projections for this year LJ is firmly entrenched in the gut of tier #2.

Taking FBG projections into account for this year the #2 thru #8 RB are seperated by less than 10 points. They might not fall in line like that (likely a greater dispersion) but the point of the message was that you're talking about a pretty minimal increase in "value" at that point... at least not what you would call "fantasy gold". Fantasy gold is getting MJD late last year...etc

 

[joffer]

Also do not forget the just terrible stats for any RB who has had 370 plus touches the year before..none as is ZERO have had nearly as good a year after that many touches...well ONE had way back to Eric Dickerson has any RB repeated his numbers after a 370 carry season and most have been hurt the following year to boot. I for one am not touching LJ this season no matter where the pick may be and i play in at least 40-50 cash leagues.

There are 4 other backs in history who have had 400 carry seasons: Eddie George, Jamal Anderson, James Wilder, and Eric Dickerson. In looking at their situations, I don't think you can determine that LJ will break down, because the situations aren't really similar. Citing Eddie George as a cautionary tale didn't apply accurately because George had carried/caught the ball 1474 times before his 400 carry season, plus another 683 rushes at Ohio State. By comparison, LJ has carried/caught the ball 989 times in the NFL to go with 460 rushes at Penn State. So George had twice the workload in his career compared to LJ. Jamal Anderson blew out his knee the next season - does an ACL injury happen because of a 400 carry season? That could have happened just as easily during his record season. ACL injuries happen all the time to players at different positions, some caused by contact, some not caused by contact. I can't see someone predicting LJ will do the same because it happened to Anderson.

James Wilder was the closest in comparison, having 1001 touches after 4 seasons - I think the problem was he was given another huge workload the next year (365 carries & 53 receptions). He also averaged under 4 yards per carry in each of those two seasons, which suggests he was taking a severe beating week in and week out. Not many runs where he burst into the secondary untouched, I imagine. LJ has had an easier go of it in terms of punishment to this point.

And Dickerson continued a Hall of Fame career after being traded to the Colts.

So can we please stop just saying "Ooh, a 400 carry season means LJ will have a terrible year next year"? f LJ struggles next season, I think it will be due to the fact that he is playing for a team with an unimaginative coach in Edwards, a rebuilding o-line, a very shaky quarteback spot, and only one receiving threat (Gonzalez), not because he had a 400 carry season. However, looking at those factors, I don't see the QB situation as being any worse than last year, I think the o-line may actually be better (yes, I know Will Shields is gone, but I think KC improved at both tackles), and adding Bowe (if they get him signed) couldn't hurt the passing game, even though he is a rookie.

it's easier just for everyone to say, 400 carries = sucks the next year and repeating what you've heard from others. i even caught this little gem from a rival FF website talking about the four >400 carry seasons:

Eric Dickerson, LA, 1986 – Through Dickerson’s first four seasons (this his 4th), he had just less than 7000 yards and 55 TDs. After he broke 400 carries, he played just 12 games in the next two injury-plagued seasons and had just 6300 yards in his remaining eight seasons. He broke 1000 yards just two more times and double-digit TDs once before retiring at age 33.

the exaggeration has really gotten ridiculous

 

[CalBear]

Also do not forget the just terrible stats for any RB who has had 370 plus touches the year before..none as is ZERO have had nearly as good a year after that many touches...well ONE had way back to Eric Dickerson has any RB repeated his numbers after a 370 carry season and most have been hurt the following year to boot.

Well, good thing Larry Johnson only had 369 touches in 2005! If he had one more, he never would have been able to finish as RB#2 in 2006!LT has had more than 370 touches every season of his career. His second-best season so far was in 2003, when he was coming off 372 carries and 79 receptions.Players tend to regress to the mean; that doesn't mean that LJ will. If you ran away from LT after his 372-carry season, you missed possibly the greatest fantasy run in history.

 

[phthalatemagic]

Eric Dickerson, LA, 1986 – Through Dickerson’s first four seasons (this his 4th), he had just less than 7000 yards and 55 TDs. After he broke 400 carries, he played just 12 games in the next two injury-plagued seasons and had just 6300 yards in his remaining eight seasons. He broke 1000 yards just two more times and double-digit TDs once before retiring at age 33.

the exaggeration has really gotten ridiculous

12 games in two seasons? Really? I don't think that is true.

 

[moondawg]

Eric Dickerson, LA, 1986 – Through Dickerson’s first four seasons (this his 4th), he had just less than 7000 yards and 55 TDs. After he broke 400 carries, he played just 12 games in the next two injury-plagued seasons and had just 6300 yards in his remaining eight seasons. He broke 1000 yards just two more times and double-digit TDs once before retiring at age 33.

the exaggeration has really gotten ridiculous

12 games in two seasons? Really? I don't think that is true.

True - he played 12 games but in 1987. split between Rams and Indy. from www.profootball-reference.com - Doug Drinen's site

+--------------------------+-------------------------+

| Rushing | Receiving |

+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+

| Year TM | G | Att Yards Y/A TD | Rec Yards Y/R TD |

+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+

| 1983 ram | 16 | 390 1808 4.6 18 | 51 404 7.9 2 |

| 1984 ram | 16 | 379 2105 5.6 14 | 21 139 6.6 0 |

| 1985 ram | 14 | 292 1234 4.2 12 | 20 126 6.3 0 |

| 1986 ram | 16 | 404 1821 4.5 11 | 26 205 7.9 0 |

| 1987 ind | 9 | 223 1011 4.5 5 | 13 133 10.2 0 |

| 1987 ram | 3 | 60 277 4.6 1 | 5 38 7.6 0 |

| 1988 ind | 16 | 388 1659 4.3 14 | 36 377 10.5 1 |

| 1989 ind | 15 | 314 1311 4.2 7 | 30 211 7.0 1 |

| 1990 ind | 11 | 166 677 4.1 4 | 18 92 5.1 0 |

| 1991 ind | 10 | 167 536 3.2 2 | 41 269 6.6 1 |

| 1992 rai | 16 | 187 729 3.9 2 | 14 85 6.1 1 |

| 1993 atl | 4 | 26 91 3.5 0 | 6 58 9.7 0 |

+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+

| TOTAL | 146 | 2996 13259 4.4 90 | 281 2137 7.6 6 |

+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+

 

[The Kansas Comet]

Eric Dickerson, LA, 1986 – Through Dickerson’s first four seasons (this his 4th), he had just less than 7000 yards and 55 TDs. After he broke 400 carries, he played just 12 games in the next two injury-plagued seasons and had just 6300 yards in his remaining eight seasons. He broke 1000 yards just two more times and double-digit TDs once before retiring at age 33.

the exaggeration has really gotten ridiculous

12 games in two seasons? Really? I don't think that is true.

It isn't - the guy who made that statement misread Dickerson's stats which had a '87 listing for 9 games for Indy and 3 games for the Rams ('87 was a strike-shortened season). At first glance, it looks like he played 9 games one season and 3 the next. @Joffer - Thanks for the quote - I'll laughing about that one for a while.

 

[CalBear]

Eric Dickerson, LA, 1986 – Through Dickerson's first four seasons (this his 4th), he had just less than 7000 yards and 55 TDs. After he broke 400 carries, he played just 12 games in the next two injury-plagued seasons and had just 6300 yards in his remaining eight seasons. He broke 1000 yards just two more times and double-digit TDs once before retiring at age 33.

the exaggeration has really gotten ridiculous

12 games in two seasons? Really? I don't think that is true.

True - he played 12 games but in 1987. split between Rams and Indy.

Also, 1987 was a strike year. So Dickerson played the whole season, and finished #2 in rushing yards for the year with a slightly higher yards per carry, despite switching teams during the season.

 

[coachjim]

this is why you need to draft as close to the start of the regular season as possible. my league drafts Sept. 4.

I agree. In my high dollar league we have our draft in Vegas on the Saturday after the first Thursday game. This has worked out great for the past 4 years. The main reason is that Vegas is a mad house over the Labor Day Weekend so we pushed it to the following weekend, this tear September 8th..

 

[Joe Bryant]

So can we please stop just saying "Ooh, a 400 carry season means LJ will have a terrible year next year"? f LJ struggles next season, I think it will be due to the fact that he is playing for a team with an unimaginative coach in Edwards, a rebuilding o-line, a very shaky quarteback spot, and only one receiving threat (Gonzalez), not because he had a 400 carry season. However, looking at those factors, I don't see the QB situation as being any worse than last year, I think the o-line may actually be better (yes, I know Will Shields is gone, but I think KC improved at both tackles), and adding Bowe (if they get him signed) couldn't hurt the passing game, even though he is a rookie.As far as holding out, I imagine Peterson will eventually come to his senses and pay LJ something around $20-25 million in guaranteed money once he sees that Priest Holmes is nowhere close to the player he was 3 years ago, because otherwise he's lost all credibility with his fan base and his players, basically saying, "I think we're going to suck this year, so no sense paying a guy what he's worth. Instead, let's get a nice high draft pick and pay him more for having done nothing!" That would be tanking the Celtics and Grizzlies could be proud of.

Thank you KC. I think you're on it here.The 380 carry thing is becoming one of those things I see people parroting without thinking it through. I agree that his biggest problems this year will be an unimaginative head coach and an offensive line that's a shadow of it's former self. And a totally green QB (not named green) with a passing game that scares no one. I too think the Chiefs will come to their senses. As they did with Gonzalez. I said it a while back but the day you stop playing tough with Larry Johnson was the day you hand over the offense to Brodie Croyle / Damon Huard. But it's also fair to say they have a million dollars worth of leverage. Sure it's not the huge dollars that a Chicago or New England could hold out over Lance Briggs and Asante Samuel, but it's still a sizable chunk of money. I think he'll get in there. But it's definitely a risk and a worry right now. I'm shying away.J

 

[shadow2k]

I think KC improved at both tackles), and adding Bowe (if they get him signed) couldn't hurt the passing game, even though he is a rookie.

Thank you for being the only person not just saying the line is in shambles because Shields is gone. Shields wasn't the same last year, and they've definitely improved the line...overall...from last year. Everyone talks like LJ had huge holes all the time last year, but the truth is, he was making something out of nothing most of the time against 9-men in the box who weren't scared of Huard at all.FYI: Bowe signed today.

 

[Dancing Bear]

Two points.

a) Risk

Every player you draft is a "risk".

Two years ago, Javon Walker is out for the season in the first quarter of Green Bay's very first game.

Frank Gore has a history of being fragile; he had one good year. Now he has a broken bone in the hand he carries the ball.

Sure it is a risk to take LJ with a Top 5 pick; Gore, Parker and Westbrook were all 4 ppg less than LJ last year! Alexander was 7 ppg less ...

b) Money

Sure LJ may hold out, but I doubt it. Peterson has signed every worthwhile player to long-term contracts since Gonzalez. LJ is also running out of money. At this point he has lost nearly 10% of this year's projected salary in fines already; with 3 more weeks of Training Camp to go his total in fines alone will go over 25% of his proposed salary. How long do you think he will honestly continue this without a paycheck?

How many of you could loose 10% of your present salary in the span of a couple of weeks and still have the ability to meet your existing financial commitments? Even if LJ was frugal and did not take on a big mortgage and buy expense cars and other toys, do you really believe he is in a position to go through the next 3 months without a salary without loosing his home, cars, toys?

 

[Bluetooth]

I think Joey Galloway did it to the Seahawks a while back. Held out for the first 10 games, came back to get credit for the year, then was traded to the Cowboys. Unless I am remembering this all wrong, the blueprint is there for LJ.

 

[Joe Bryant]

Certainly Errict Rhett didn't dominate like Johnson but he was a high 2nd round pick and had a great start in the league before holding out. http://pewterpirates.blogspot.com/2005/11/...ll-of-fame.html

For what it's worth.

J

 

[jabarony]

I definitely think he holds out UNLESS the Chiefs offer him something close to market value. His case is very unique in that most teams try to lock up top talent like LJ. The Chiefs however realize that they are rebuilding and don't want to pay him what he is worth. No way will LJ come in and play for his regular contract (will just show up week 10 so that he accrues the needed year of service).People looking at history are missing a few key points:- LJ is grossly underpaid.- NFL contracts are sky-rocketing- LJ increases his contract substantially by changing teams.- Carl Peterson handles all of his star contracts like this. Remember when he was being harsh to Tony Gonzalez and/or Priest Holmes? The difference is those players wanted to stay in Kansas City. I don't think LJ does (This team is rebuilding, line is much worse, new QB, bad receivers, aging TE, etc). So unless KC is offering market value +, I don't see LJ getting remotely excited. Most players of Lj status would have been asking for a raise before last season. He has treated this with as much professionalism as possible. He now has back-to-back huge seasons and wants to get paid. Kansas City has NO LEVERAGE here. If they allow LJ to sit until week 10, the only option they have left going forward is to franchise LJ for 2008. But the fans won't want him back if he holds out until week 10. He will essentially force a trade as the owners will not want to pay the price of a franchised RB in 2008 on a rebuilding team.Let someone else take LJ in the first round. I think this pick is high risk, minimal reward personally.

wow David, looks like me and you were on the same page at the exact same time..i do like the way you put things though! LOLt just below yours..this situation is between two very stubborn men..LJ is extremely stubborn and so is Peterson. LJ says he wants LT type money and that's it. Peterson says no way in hell can or will he can him that much money. So what else is there? A trade? Well KC wants a lot for LJ with 2 first rounds picks being first in any deal from what been talked about so far. No team is willing to give up 2 #1 picks for starters AND pay LJ what he wants....yes this has all the makings of a major hold up IMO. Peterson must know his team is not going to win the BB this year so its not like LJ is going to cost them a SB. And by the time KC is ready to make a SB run LJ would likely be past his prime..this has all the makings of a hold out into the season and possibly until week 10 unless LJ comes down with his price. I don't know how much pressure the KC fans can or will put on the team about this. They will sell out every game with or without LJ and probably are sold out for their already..so what now? LJ must come down in price or else.

Maybe H. Carl Peterson is taking the Denver approach - Pay everyone but the RBs as they are a dime-a-dozen. Now granted LJ is obviously better than M. Bennet, but does he deserve LT money? I don't believe so. He's above average, but not in LT's league when it comes to pure talent. Maybe Peterson is thinking he could get guys of comparable talent (Ahman Green, Rudi Johnson, Ronnie Brown, Kevin Jones, etc.) for 75% of LJ's asking price. Not that these guys are currently available, but you get the idea. Both Holmes and LJ turned out to be a hit. What's to say Peterson doesn't think he can score another bargain?

 

[David Dodds]

David,That was very well put. I, along with everyone else here, value your opinion highly. I do not own LJ, but your response certainly begs the question - if LJ does not get market value + as you said, then whoever gets the bulk of the RB duties is being grossly overlooked/undervalued, right?At the FF Calculator mock site, in 15-round, 12-team drafts from July 31st thru August 2nd, LJ's ADP is still 1.3, while Michael Bennett is at 13.6, Priest Holmes is at 13.11, and Kolby Smith didn't even make the cut . At the Ansports mock site, in 20-round, 12-team drafts from July 29th thru August 4th, LJ is still at 1.3 (and has only fallen to 1.7 at the lowest in 61 drafts), Priest Holmes is at 12.5, Michael Bennett is at 15.3, and Kolby Smith didn't even make the cut.I'm not saying if LJ holds out that someone will come in and tear up the FF world. But, given your stance that you think LJ will hold out, who do you think is the smart choice for redraft leagues between the other RB's? The FBG depth chart, current as of August 4th, has LJ at RB1, Priest Holmes at RB2, Michael Bennett at RB3, and Kolby Smith at RB4.I'm sure many people who have upcoming drafts would love to hear your response to this, so please chime in when you have time, thank you.

I am still have big doubts that Priest will play. If he does play, I doubt he will be the full-time starter. I am guessing this would be a full-blown RBBC situation and we would see Bennett, Smith and Holmes all in spurts. If LJ does not report until week 10, all will liklely have some value. But none of these guys will put up anything close to LJs numbers. Kolby Smith is the most intriguing as he is the biggest unknown.

 

[Keith Lewis]

I definitely think he holds out UNLESS the Chiefs offer him something close to market value. His case is very unique in that most teams try to lock up top talent like LJ. The Chiefs however realize that they are rebuilding and don't want to pay him what he is worth. No way will LJ come in and play for his regular contract (will just show up week 10 so that he accrues the needed year of service).People looking at history are missing a few key points:- LJ is grossly underpaid.- NFL contracts are sky-rocketing- LJ increases his contract substantially by changing teams.- Carl Peterson handles all of his star contracts like this. Remember when he was being harsh to Tony Gonzalez and/or Priest Holmes? The difference is those players wanted to stay in Kansas City. I don't think LJ does (This team is rebuilding, line is much worse, new QB, bad receivers, aging TE, etc). So unless KC is offering market value +, I don't see LJ getting remotely excited. Most players of Lj status would have been asking for a raise before last season. He has treated this with as much professionalism as possible. He now has back-to-back huge seasons and wants to get paid. Kansas City has NO LEVERAGE here. If they allow LJ to sit until week 10, the only option they have left going forward is to franchise LJ for 2008. But the fans won't want him back if he holds out until week 10. He will essentially force a trade as the owners will not want to pay the price of a franchised RB in 2008 on a rebuilding team.Let someone else take LJ in the first round. I think this pick is high risk, minimal reward personally.

wow David, looks like me and you were on the same page at the exact same time..i do like the way you put things though! LOLt just below yours..this situation is between two very stubborn men..LJ is extremely stubborn and so is Peterson. LJ says he wants LT type money and that's it. Peterson says no way in hell can or will he can him that much money. So what else is there? A trade? Well KC wants a lot for LJ with 2 first rounds picks being first in any deal from what been talked about so far. No team is willing to give up 2 #1 picks for starters AND pay LJ what he wants....yes this has all the makings of a major hold up IMO. Peterson must know his team is not going to win the BB this year so its not like LJ is going to cost them a SB. And by the time KC is ready to make a SB run LJ would likely be past his prime..this has all the makings of a hold out into the season and possibly until week 10 unless LJ comes down with his price. I don't know how much pressure the KC fans can or will put on the team about this. They will sell out every game with or without LJ and probably are sold out for their already..so what now? LJ must come down in price or else.

Maybe H. Carl Peterson is taking the Denver approach - Pay everyone but the RBs as they are a dime-a-dozen. Now granted LJ is obviously better than M. Bennet, but does he deserve LT money? I don't believe so. He's above average, but not in LT's league when it comes to pure talent. Maybe Peterson is thinking he could get guys of comparable talent (Ahman Green, Rudi Johnson, Ronnie Brown, Kevin Jones, etc.) for 75% of LJ's asking price. Not that these guys are currently available, but you get the idea. Both Holmes and LJ turned out to be a hit. What's to say Peterson doesn't think he can score another bargain?

One huge difference between KC and Denver. KC stinks, Denver is a good team. If he wants to copy Denvers approach, then he should put together a good team as the #1 priority. By starting his "Denver approach" by being a cheapskate I don't think it bodes well for the team and the season ticket holders and the rest of the fans.

 

[Dirty Weasel]

David,That was very well put. I, along with everyone else here, value your opinion highly. I do not own LJ, but your response certainly begs the question - if LJ does not get market value + as you said, then whoever gets the bulk of the RB duties is being grossly overlooked/undervalued, right?At the FF Calculator mock site, in 15-round, 12-team drafts from July 31st thru August 2nd, LJ's ADP is still 1.3, while Michael Bennett is at 13.6, Priest Holmes is at 13.11, and Kolby Smith didn't even make the cut . At the Ansports mock site, in 20-round, 12-team drafts from July 29th thru August 4th, LJ is still at 1.3 (and has only fallen to 1.7 at the lowest in 61 drafts), Priest Holmes is at 12.5, Michael Bennett is at 15.3, and Kolby Smith didn't even make the cut.I'm not saying if LJ holds out that someone will come in and tear up the FF world. But, given your stance that you think LJ will hold out, who do you think is the smart choice for redraft leagues between the other RB's? The FBG depth chart, current as of August 4th, has LJ at RB1, Priest Holmes at RB2, Michael Bennett at RB3, and Kolby Smith at RB4.I'm sure many people who have upcoming drafts would love to hear your response to this, so please chime in when you have time, thank you.

I am still have big doubts that Priest will play. If he does play, I doubt he will be the full-time starter. I am guessing this would be a full-blown RBBC situation and we would see Bennett, Smith and Holmes all in spurts. If LJ does not report until week 10, all will liklely have some value. But none of these guys will put up anything close to LJs numbers. Kolby Smith is the most intriguing as he is the biggest unknown.

Thanx for the reply. As I doubt LJ signs before my draft, I'll be snagging Kolby while others go after Priest and Bennett many rounds earlier. Not much risk in a 16-18th round pick. If he doesn't pan out, you can just drop him and seek the WW for a new sleeper.

 

[shadow2k]

One huge difference between KC and Denver. KC stinks, Denver is a good team. If he wants to copy Denvers approach, then he should put together a good team as the #1 priority. By starting his "Denver approach" by being a cheapskate I don't think it bodes well for the team and the season ticket holders and the rest of the fans.

KC stinks, but made the playoffs.Denver is good...and didn't?Odd.