Is there a real chance LJ holds out? (1 Viewer)

[Keith Lewis]

One huge difference between KC and Denver. KC stinks, Denver is a good team. If he wants to copy Denvers approach, then he should put together a good team as the #1 priority. By starting his "Denver approach" by being a cheapskate I don't think it bodes well for the team and the season ticket holders and the rest of the fans.

KC stinks, but made the playoffs.Denver is good...and didn't?Odd.

Tell you what, $1000 bet that Denver has a better record than KC this season, you game?

 

[Routilla]

One huge difference between KC and Denver. KC stinks, Denver is a good team. If he wants to copy Denvers approach, then he should put together a good team as the #1 priority. By starting his "Denver approach" by being a cheapskate I don't think it bodes well for the team and the season ticket holders and the rest of the fans.

KC stinks, but made the playoffs.Denver is good...and didn't?Odd.

That does seem to be a paradox, does it not?

 

[Family Matters]

I've been thinking about this alot lately and what strikes me is that I may have been quilty of over thinking this one through. Several times I've asked homers to chime in about the love affair that existed between LJ and the ownership/management of KC from the past. When LJ was drafted he was held in high regard and drafted over Vermeil's objections. That's how bad they wanted him and how highly they thought of him.

Considering his performance the last 2 years, KC has been rewarded with outstanding results from LJ. And yes we're talking near LT type performance. So he's proven his worth to KC.

LJ has made some demands. KC has said they want to pay less than what he wants and have attempted to justify their position by suggesting he's not worth LT type money. It's still very early in the negotiation phase so there is alot of posturing right now which is normal.

But KC is in a bit of a desperate situation right now. In the court of public opinion LJ looks like he's being treated unfairly. KC is losing their starting and beloved QB and perhaps starting a rookie QB which means to fans that they will suffer until he gets some time under center. Many think they are falling apart as they have lost a couple of lineman as well.

I think we can all (or most of us) agree that LJ deserves a new contract and to be paid as one of the best RB's. I really do not think KC feels he's not worth it. They may not want to pay it but they know he's due. And I think they will do all they can to shave a mil here and there before they get a deal done. But they will get a deal done before week 1. LJ isn't going to miss anything. He knows the plays. And he can step right in with no problem.

So at the end of the day you have ask yourself, "Why wouldn't KC sign him?" They have everything to gain and nothing to lose. Letting him sit or not play is the worse thing that could happen to KC and their fans. It's also the worse thing that could happen to Peterson as a GM. Considering they lost their beloved owner, 2 lineman and their beloved QB, well it's time to have something positive for KC. Signing LJ would provide some positive news indeed. I say this will get done, because it makes sense for everyone.

 

[Da Guru]

I've been thinking about this alot lately and what strikes me is that I may have been quilty of over thinking this one through. Several times I've asked homers to chime in about the love affair that existed between LJ and the ownership/management of KC from the past. When LJ was drafted he was held in high regard and drafted over Vermeil's objections. That's how bad they wanted him and how highly they thought of him.Considering his performance the last 2 years, KC has been rewarded with outstanding results from LJ. And yes we're talking near LT type performance. So he's proven his worth to KC.LJ has made some demands. KC has said they want to pay less than what he wants and have attempted to justify their position by suggesting he's not worth LT type money. It's still very early in the negotiation phase so there is alot of posturing right now which is normal.But KC is in a bit of a desperate situation right now. In the court of public opinion LJ looks like he's being treated unfairly. KC is losing their starting and beloved QB and perhaps starting a rookie QB which means to fans that they will suffer until he gets some time under center. Many think they are falling apart as they have lost a couple of lineman as well.I think we can all (or most of us) agree that LJ deserves a new contract and to be paid as one of the best RB's. I really do not think KC feels he's not worth it. They may not want to pay it but they know he's due. And I think they will do all they can to shave a mil here and there before they get a deal done. But they will get a deal done before week 1. LJ isn't going to miss anything. He knows the plays. And he can step right in with no problem.So at the end of the day you have ask yourself, "Why wouldn't KC sign him?" They have everything to gain and nothing to lose. Letting him sit or not play is the worse thing that could happen to KC and their fans. It's also the worse thing that could happen to Peterson as a GM. Considering they lost their beloved owner, 2 lineman and their beloved QB, well it's time to have something positive for KC. Signing LJ would provide some positive news indeed. I say this will get done, because it makes sense for everyone.

Sitting hurts LJ in his prime

 

[buckyben]

I've been thinking about this alot lately and what strikes me is that I may have been quilty of over thinking this one through. Several times I've asked homers to chime in about the love affair that existed between LJ and the ownership/management of KC from the past. When LJ was drafted he was held in high regard and drafted over Vermeil's objections. That's how bad they wanted him and how highly they thought of him.Considering his performance the last 2 years, KC has been rewarded with outstanding results from LJ. And yes we're talking near LT type performance. So he's proven his worth to KC.LJ has made some demands. KC has said they want to pay less than what he wants and have attempted to justify their position by suggesting he's not worth LT type money. It's still very early in the negotiation phase so there is alot of posturing right now which is normal.But KC is in a bit of a desperate situation right now. In the court of public opinion LJ looks like he's being treated unfairly. KC is losing their starting and beloved QB and perhaps starting a rookie QB which means to fans that they will suffer until he gets some time under center. Many think they are falling apart as they have lost a couple of lineman as well.I think we can all (or most of us) agree that LJ deserves a new contract and to be paid as one of the best RB's. I really do not think KC feels he's not worth it. They may not want to pay it but they know he's due. And I think they will do all they can to shave a mil here and there before they get a deal done. But they will get a deal done before week 1. LJ isn't going to miss anything. He knows the plays. And he can step right in with no problem.So at the end of the day you have ask yourself, "Why wouldn't KC sign him?" They have everything to gain and nothing to lose. Letting him sit or not play is the worse thing that could happen to KC and their fans. It's also the worse thing that could happen to Peterson as a GM. Considering they lost their beloved owner, 2 lineman and their beloved QB, well it's time to have something positive for KC. Signing LJ would provide some positive news indeed. I say this will get done, because it makes sense for everyone.

You make some good points, but I think I disagree. I guess I feel that RB is one of those positions where you should never pay huge money long term on a 2nd or 3rd contract (with very few exceptions, i.e. LT). More than any other position, RBs seem interchangeable. Indy dropped Edge and Addai stepped right in and they won the Super Bowl. The Colts save about 6 million a year, get a younger player and do not have a lot of money tied up with a really long term contract with a bunch of upfront money. Many other teams have made similar moves and come out ahead. Denver has not needed to have a top back to end up in the top 5 in the NFL in rushing. Same with Pittsburgh. The Bengals didn't miss a beat when Dillon left, etc.Maybe KC feels like it is too risky to put down 30 million upfront. Maybe they feel like they would better be served by using that cap space to improve the shaky O line. Maybe they remember how big the numbers that Priest Holmes put up and realize that the system may have more to do with things than the general public realizes.

 

[DLeo]

Also do not forget the just terrible stats for any RB who has had 370 plus touches the year before..none as is ZERO have had nearly as good a year after that many touches...well ONE had way back to Eric Dickerson has any RB repeated his numbers after a 370 carry season and most have been hurt the following year to boot. I for one am not touching LJ this season no matter where the pick may be and i play in at least 40-50 cash leagues.

There are 4 other backs in history who have had 400 carry seasons: Eddie George, Jamal Anderson, James Wilder, and Eric Dickerson. In looking at their situations, I don't think you can determine that LJ will break down, because the situations aren't really similar. Citing Eddie George as a cautionary tale didn't apply accurately because George had carried/caught the ball 1474 times before his 400 carry season, plus another 683 rushes at Ohio State. By comparison, LJ has carried/caught the ball 989 times in the NFL to go with 460 rushes at Penn State. So George had twice the workload in his career compared to LJ. Jamal Anderson blew out his knee the next season - does an ACL injury happen because of a 400 carry season? That could have happened just as easily during his record season. ACL injuries happen all the time to players at different positions, some caused by contact, some not caused by contact. I can't see someone predicting LJ will do the same because it happened to Anderson.

James Wilder was the closest in comparison, having 1001 touches after 4 seasons - I think the problem was he was given another huge workload the next year (365 carries & 53 receptions). He also averaged under 4 yards per carry in each of those two seasons, which suggests he was taking a severe beating week in and week out. Not many runs where he burst into the secondary untouched, I imagine. LJ has had an easier go of it in terms of punishment to this point.

And Dickerson continued a Hall of Fame career after being traded to the Colts.

So can we please stop just saying "Ooh, a 400 carry season means LJ will have a terrible year next year"? f LJ struggles next season, I think it will be due to the fact that he is playing for a team with an unimaginative coach in Edwards, a rebuilding o-line, a very shaky quarteback spot, and only one receiving threat (Gonzalez), not because he had a 400 carry season. However, looking at those factors, I don't see the QB situation as being any worse than last year, I think the o-line may actually be better (yes, I know Will Shields is gone, but I think KC improved at both tackles), and adding Bowe (if they get him signed) couldn't hurt the passing game, even though he is a rookie.

As far as holding out, I imagine Peterson will eventually come to his senses and pay LJ something around $20-25 million in guaranteed money once he sees that Priest Holmes is nowhere close to the player he was 3 years ago, because otherwise he's lost all credibility with his fan base and his players, basically saying, "I think we're going to suck this year, so no sense paying a guy what he's worth. Instead, let's get a nice high draft pick and pay him more for having done nothing!" That would be tanking the Celtics and Grizzlies could be proud of.

it was 370 plus touches in a year and nobody but Eric Dickerson preformed the same way the year after. Thats a fact.

 

[DLeo]

Also do not forget the just terrible stats for any RB who has had 370 plus touches the year before..none as is ZERO have had nearly as good a year after that many touches...well ONE had way back to Eric Dickerson has any RB repeated his numbers after a 370 carry season and most have been hurt the following year to boot.

Well, good thing Larry Johnson only had 369 touches in 2005! If he had one more, he never would have been able to finish as RB#2 in 2006!LT has had more than 370 touches every season of his career. His second-best season so far was in 2003, when he was coming off 372 carries and 79 receptions.Players tend to regress to the mean; that doesn't mean that LJ will. If you ran away from LT after his 372-carry season, you missed possibly the greatest fantasy run in history.

talk all you want..LJ is headed fpr a lousey year and not just becasue he was used so much last year. I can think of many reasons and now with him holding out it's juat another big reason to stay away..whats that stat about players who hold out and struggle terribly because of it? lol...If you can't see this below average year coming from LJ then I don't know what to say. Now maybe he wil get traded to GB and change the trends and karma..never know.

 

[DLeo]

Two points.a) RiskEvery player you draft is a "risk".Two years ago, Javon Walker is out for the season in the first quarter of Green Bay's very first game.Frank Gore has a history of being fragile; he had one good year. Now he has a broken bone in the hand he carries the ball.Sure it is a risk to take LJ with a Top 5 pick; Gore, Parker and Westbrook were all 4 ppg less than LJ last year! Alexander was 7 ppg less ...b) MoneySure LJ may hold out, but I doubt it. Peterson has signed every worthwhile player to long-term contracts since Gonzalez. LJ is also running out of money. At this point he has lost nearly 10% of this year's projected salary in fines already; with 3 more weeks of Training Camp to go his total in fines alone will go over 25% of his proposed salary. How long do you think he will honestly continue this without a paycheck?How many of you could loose 10% of your present salary in the span of a couple of weeks and still have the ability to meet your existing financial commitments? Even if LJ was frugal and did not take on a big mortgage and buy expense cars and other toys, do you really believe he is in a position to go through the next 3 months without a salary without loosing his home, cars, toys?

Doubt this is a problem for him i would guess his borrowing power is still extremely high and he could ge as much as he needed or wanted from just about any Bank his agent hooked him up with....this running out of cash is not an issue at all hear i would bet I mean come on he is aboit to het 30 mill guarenteed cash any day week month now...$$ is not his problem..his agent will give him all he needs and then some..no worries here.

 

[CalBear]

it was 370 plus touches in a year and nobody but Eric Dickerson preformed the same way the year after. Thats a fact.

No, it's not a fact.

+--------------------------+-------------------------+				   |		  Rushing		 |		Receiving		|  +----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+  | Year  TM |   G |   Att  Yards	Y/A   TD |   Rec  Yards   Y/R   TD |  +----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+  | 2002 sdg |  16 |   372   1683	4.5   14 |	79	489   6.2	1 |  | 2003 sdg |  16 |   313   1645	5.3   13 |   100	725   7.2	4 |

And even if it were a fact, you'd still have to prove that Larry Johnson can't be an exception, since there are known to be exceptions. You can't just assert it.Would you have given up on Tomlinson after 2002?

 

[Truman]

Not even close actually, there are many exceptions.

Also do not forget the just terrible stats for any RB who has had 370 plus touches the year before..none as is ZERO have had nearly as good a year after that many touches...well ONE had way back to Eric Dickerson has any RB repeated his numbers after a 370 carry season and most have been hurt the following year to boot. I for one am not touching LJ this season no matter where the pick may be and i play in at least 40-50 cash leagues.

Wilder| 1984 tam | 16 | 407 1544 3.8 13 | 85 685 8.1 0 || 1985 tam | 16 | 365 1300 3.6 10 | 53 341 6.4 0 Smith| 1992 dal | 16 | 373 1713 4.6 18 | 59 335 5.7 1 || 1993 dal | 14 | 283 1486 5.3 9 | 57 414 7.3 1Tomlinson| 2002 sdg | 16 | 372 1683 4.5 14 | 79 489 6.2 1 || 2003 sdg | 16 | 313 1645 5.3 13 | 100 725 7.2 4 Payton| 1984 chi | 16 | 381 1684 4.4 11 | 45 368 8.2 0 || 1985 chi | 16 | 324 1551 4.8 9 | 49 483 9.9 2 Riggins| 1983 was | 15 | 375 1347 3.6 24 | 5 29 5.8 0 || 1984 was | 14 | 327 1239 3.8 14 | 7 43 6.1 0

 

[Mr. Bill O'Reilly]

Yes he may hold out and if I was advising him or was him I'd hold out until I got a long-term deal that was fair... The guy is arguably the best RB in the game and this would seem to be his only chance to cash in as a long-term deal now would be his last major deal.

 

[Dirty Weasel]

Let me chime in with a list of players who have had decent seasons after a 370+ touch season...

Walter Payton - 383 touches in 1978 - went on to record 4 more 370+ touch seasons, his last one being in 1985

Earl Campbell - 384 touches in 1979 - 370+ touches the next 2 years, even increased his ypc in 1980

Ottis Anderson - 372 touches in 1979 - next 2 years with 337/379 touches & increased rushing TD's, had 353-touch season 10 years later

Tony Dorsett - 374 touches in 1981 - next 4 years all good, beat his rushing TD total 6 more times

William Andrews - 370 touches in 1981 - strike-shortened season in 1982, 390-touch season in 1983

John Riggins - 187 touches in strike-shortened 1982, next 2 seasons were best of his career

Marcus Allen - 198 touches in strike-shortened 1982 as a rookie, I'm pretty sure his whole career wasn't a bust, hit 447 touches in 1985

Eric Dickerson - 441 touches in 1983 as a rookie, the rest is history

Curt Warner - 377 touches in 1983 as a rookie, 360 touches and higher ypc in 1986

James Wilder - followed up his 492-touch season in 1984 with 418 touches in 1985

Gerald Riggs - 395 touches in 1984 - 430 in 1985, 367 in 1986

Thurman Thomas - 370 touches in 1992 - 403 touches in 1993

Barry Sanders - 383 touches in 1991 - next 7 seasons he was among, if not the best, RB in the NFL

Jerome Bettis - 390 touches in 1997 - 368 touches in 2000 with more rushing TD's

Marshall Faulk - 410 touches in 1998 - his next 3 years were his FF heyday

Terry Allen - i know he doesn't qualify, but only by 1 touch, 369 in 1995, monster season the following year with 379 touches

Rickey Watters - 399 touches in 1995 - 404 the following year, to go along with 5 more great seasons

Terrell Davis - 381 touches in 1986 - over 400 touches each of next 2 monster seasons

Eddie George - 385 touches in 1998 - broke 370 2 more times, including 453-touch 2000 season

Edgerrin James - 431 touches in 1999 as a rookie - even better in 2000 with 450 touches and improved statline

Stephen Davis - 384 touches in 2001 - increased ypc by .5 and TD's by 3 in 2003 with 332 touches

Curtis Martin - 398 touches in 1995 as a rookie - he had quite a career, huh?

Corey Dillon - 374 touches in 2001 - 2 more seasons with 350+ touches, had 3 more seasons with more rushing TD's

LaDainian Tomlinson - 398 touches as a rookie - looks to be having a great career thus far

Priest Holmes - 389 touches in 2001 - his next 2 seasons were among the best ever

Ricky Williams - 373 touches in 2001 - his next 2 seasons he beat that number... in carries alone!

Shaun Alexander - 376 touches in 2004 - 385 touches in 2005, to go along with 27 rushing TD's

Deuce McAllister - 372 touches in 2002 - 420 touches in 2003, over 2000 total yards

Tiki Barber - 372 touches in 2002 - 4 more great seasons to finish off his career

Fred Taylor - 393 touches in 2003 - increased ypc in 2 of next 3 seasons (yeah, he's a stretch for this list)

Rudi Johnson - 376 touches in 2004 - nearly identical seasons in 2005 and 2006

Clinton Portis - 383 touches in 2004 - 382 touches in 2005, with .5ypc increase and double his TD output

Steven Jackson - 436 touches in 2006 - I doubt he is a dud in 2007

Frank Gore - 373 touches in 2006 - look out, track wreck ahead

Larry Johnson himself - you already know his last 2 seasons

I just went down the complete list of all 370+ touch RB's I could find. Amazingly, most of them had very productive seasons after their initial 370-touch season. As a matter of fact, the odds are in favor of a RB doing well, not falling on his face.

 

[Dancing Bear]

Doubt this is a problem for him i would guess his borrowing power is still extremely high and he could ge as much as he needed or wanted from just about any Bank his agent hooked him up with....this running out of cash is not an issue at all hear i would bet I mean come on he is aboit to het 30 mill guarenteed cash any day week month now...$$ is not his problem..his agent will give him all he needs and then some..no worries here.

Unless he has enough assets to put up as collateral against a loan, there is not a bank in the world that would give you money in this situation.He is walking a dangerous line IMHO. No money coming in ... Financial commitments that won't go away ... On top of the fact that he is getting fined each week!I have also said it in other threads, but I'll reiterate it here.LJ does not have reasonable representation. His original contract should have stipulated extra $ for performance criteria met against say the Top 3 RB's of the league. The fact that he has not been paid top $ for his top performance the past 1-1/2 years is only his fault, it is not Kansas City's. His agent [the same agent now negotiating for his future] did not get him any sort of clauses to pay him as an elite back. Asking KC to "pay me now for what I did for you yesterday" is not going to significantly happen. LJ needs to set up a contract that gives him the potential to earn $ if he continues to perform on an elite level.Additionally, to me he has no reasonable claim against LT's overall performance or contract. LT has done it for 5 straight years. LJ has only done it for 1-1/2 or maybe if you stretch it 2 years with two partial 1/2's. It is not LJ's fault that Priest Holmes and Derrick Blaylock were both there when he was drafted by KC, but he has to face the fact that he has not produced like LT.

 

[Tau837]

Is there any reasonable possibility of a trade happening before the season? How soon would it have to happen for it to make sense for the other team...? That is, how many weeks of preseason would the other team want at minimum for LJ to learn the offense?

 

[Truman]

Let me chime in with a list of players who have had decent seasons after a 370+ touch season...Walter Payton - 383 touches in 1978 - went on to record 4 more 370+ touch seasons, his last one being in 1985Earl Campbell - 384 touches in 1979 - 370+ touches the next 2 years, even increased his ypc in 1980Ottis Anderson - 372 touches in 1979 - next 2 years with 337/379 touches & increased rushing TD's, had 353-touch season 10 years laterTony Dorsett - 374 touches in 1981 - next 4 years all good, beat his rushing TD total 6 more timesWilliam Andrews - 370 touches in 1981 - strike-shortened season in 1982, 390-touch season in 1983John Riggins - 187 touches in strike-shortened 1982, next 2 seasons were best of his careerMarcus Allen - 198 touches in strike-shortened 1982 as a rookie, I'm pretty sure his whole career wasn't a bust, hit 447 touches in 1985Eric Dickerson - 441 touches in 1983 as a rookie, the rest is historyCurt Warner - 377 touches in 1983 as a rookie, 360 touches and higher ypc in 1986James Wilder - followed up his 492-touch season in 1984 with 418 touches in 1985Gerald Riggs - 395 touches in 1984 - 430 in 1985, 367 in 1986Thurman Thomas - 370 touches in 1992 - 403 touches in 1993Barry Sanders - 383 touches in 1991 - next 7 seasons he was among, if not the best, RB in the NFLJerome Bettis - 390 touches in 1997 - 368 touches in 2000 with more rushing TD'sMarshall Faulk - 410 touches in 1998 - his next 3 years were his FF heydayTerry Allen - i know he doesn't qualify, but only by 1 touch, 369 in 1995, monster season the following year with 379 touchesRickey Watters - 399 touches in 1995 - 404 the following year, to go along with 5 more great seasonsTerrell Davis - 381 touches in 1986 - over 400 touches each of next 2 monster seasonsEddie George - 385 touches in 1998 - broke 370 2 more times, including 453-touch 2000 seasonEdgerrin James - 431 touches in 1999 as a rookie - even better in 2000 with 450 touches and improved statlineStephen Davis - 384 touches in 2001 - increased ypc by .5 and TD's by 3 in 2003 with 332 touchesCurtis Martin - 398 touches in 1995 as a rookie - he had quite a career, huh?Corey Dillon - 374 touches in 2001 - 2 more seasons with 350+ touches, had 3 more seasons with more rushing TD'sLaDainian Tomlinson - 398 touches as a rookie - looks to be having a great career thus farPriest Holmes - 389 touches in 2001 - his next 2 seasons were among the best everRicky Williams - 373 touches in 2001 - his next 2 seasons he beat that number... in carries alone!Shaun Alexander - 376 touches in 2004 - 385 touches in 2005, to go along with 27 rushing TD'sDeuce McAllister - 372 touches in 2002 - 420 touches in 2003, over 2000 total yardsTiki Barber - 372 touches in 2002 - 4 more great seasons to finish off his careerFred Taylor - 393 touches in 2003 - increased ypc in 2 of next 3 seasons (yeah, he's a stretch for this list)Rudi Johnson - 376 touches in 2004 - nearly identical seasons in 2005 and 2006Clinton Portis - 383 touches in 2004 - 382 touches in 2005, with .5ypc increase and double his TD outputSteven Jackson - 436 touches in 2006 - I doubt he is a dud in 2007Frank Gore - 373 touches in 2006 - look out, track wreck aheadLarry Johnson himself - you already know his last 2 seasonsI just went down the complete list of all 370+ touch RB's I could find. Amazingly, most of them had very productive seasons after their initial 370-touch season. As a matter of fact, the odds are in favor of a RB doing well, not falling on his face.

A touch does not equal a carry.

 

[gump]

A touch does not equal a carry.

I think the list was referring to this statement:

it was 370 plus touches in a year and nobody but Eric Dickerson preformed the same way the year after. Thats a fact.

 

[Family Matters]

I've been thinking about this alot lately and what strikes me is that I may have been quilty of over thinking this one through. Several times I've asked homers to chime in about the love affair that existed between LJ and the ownership/management of KC from the past. When LJ was drafted he was held in high regard and drafted over Vermeil's objections. That's how bad they wanted him and how highly they thought of him.Considering his performance the last 2 years, KC has been rewarded with outstanding results from LJ. And yes we're talking near LT type performance. So he's proven his worth to KC.LJ has made some demands. KC has said they want to pay less than what he wants and have attempted to justify their position by suggesting he's not worth LT type money. It's still very early in the negotiation phase so there is alot of posturing right now which is normal.But KC is in a bit of a desperate situation right now. In the court of public opinion LJ looks like he's being treated unfairly. KC is losing their starting and beloved QB and perhaps starting a rookie QB which means to fans that they will suffer until he gets some time under center. Many think they are falling apart as they have lost a couple of lineman as well.I think we can all (or most of us) agree that LJ deserves a new contract and to be paid as one of the best RB's. I really do not think KC feels he's not worth it. They may not want to pay it but they know he's due. And I think they will do all they can to shave a mil here and there before they get a deal done. But they will get a deal done before week 1. LJ isn't going to miss anything. He knows the plays. And he can step right in with no problem.So at the end of the day you have ask yourself, "Why wouldn't KC sign him?" They have everything to gain and nothing to lose. Letting him sit or not play is the worse thing that could happen to KC and their fans. It's also the worse thing that could happen to Peterson as a GM. Considering they lost their beloved owner, 2 lineman and their beloved QB, well it's time to have something positive for KC. Signing LJ would provide some positive news indeed. I say this will get done, because it makes sense for everyone.

You make some good points, but I think I disagree. I guess I feel that RB is one of those positions where you should never pay huge money long term on a 2nd or 3rd contract (with very few exceptions, i.e. LT). More than any other position, RBs seem interchangeable. Indy dropped Edge and Addai stepped right in and they won the Super Bowl. The Colts save about 6 million a year, get a younger player and do not have a lot of money tied up with a really long term contract with a bunch of upfront money. Many other teams have made similar moves and come out ahead. Denver has not needed to have a top back to end up in the top 5 in the NFL in rushing. Same with Pittsburgh. The Bengals didn't miss a beat when Dillon left, etc.Maybe KC feels like it is too risky to put down 30 million upfront. Maybe they feel like they would better be served by using that cap space to improve the shaky O line. Maybe they remember how big the numbers that Priest Holmes put up and realize that the system may have more to do with things than the general public realizes.

Just wanted to respond on a couple of your points. I realize how you feel about paying RB's but I really don't think that's a prevailing thought in the NFL. More on that in a moment.Your comment about finding players to plug in like Addai to save money is not quite what it seems. Addai was drafted in the 1st round so he's being paid decent money. And when he continues to play he'll be in the same boat LJ is today, demanding a better deal. We've seen this quite a few times before.Now about paying LT money. What you have to realize is that finances and cap space for teams have changed dramatically since LT got his deal. LJ will be paid as much or maybe more than LT because the NFL has more money to pay out now. So it's not really a question of is LJ worth what LT is? It's a matter that the salries are on the rise and LJ will be paid as 1 of the best RB's that he is. LT not withstanding. LT has little to so with what LJ will be paid.Teams that don't havew a stud RB are teams left in constant flux of finding one. When Denver traded away their last stud, Portis, they've been left juggling RB's since. I think they have someone again this year. But to say they've done just fine therefore the system works isn't always easily applied to other teams. Denver has a great system and leveradges that to their advantage. But they still could use a great RB to make it better.Lastly, if teams only paid on the first contract like you're suggesting then only high end 1st rounders would be paid anything big. That doesn't make much sense. Of course paying rookies big money without ever playing a down in the NFL doesn't make much sense either but it's the system they use.

 

[Family Matters]

Doubt this is a problem for him i would guess his borrowing power is still extremely high and he could ge as much as he needed or wanted from just about any Bank his agent hooked him up with....this running out of cash is not an issue at all hear i would bet I mean come on he is aboit to het 30 mill guarenteed cash any day week month now...$$ is not his problem..his agent will give him all he needs and then some..no worries here.

Unless he has enough assets to put up as collateral against a loan, there is not a bank in the world that would give you money in this situation.He is walking a dangerous line IMHO. No money coming in ... Financial commitments that won't go away ... On top of the fact that he is getting fined each week!I have also said it in other threads, but I'll reiterate it here.LJ does not have reasonable representation. His original contract should have stipulated extra $ for performance criteria met against say the Top 3 RB's of the league. The fact that he has not been paid top $ for his top performance the past 1-1/2 years is only his fault, it is not Kansas City's. His agent [the same agent now negotiating for his future] did not get him any sort of clauses to pay him as an elite back. Asking KC to "pay me now for what I did for you yesterday" is not going to significantly happen. LJ needs to set up a contract that gives him the potential to earn $ if he continues to perform on an elite level.Additionally, to me he has no reasonable claim against LT's overall performance or contract. LT has done it for 5 straight years. LJ has only done it for 1-1/2 or maybe if you stretch it 2 years with two partial 1/2's. It is not LJ's fault that Priest Holmes and Derrick Blaylock were both there when he was drafted by KC, but he has to face the fact that he has not produced like LT.

There's a lot about your comments that can't or won't play out in the NFL world. Contracts typically aren't written against what the top 3 did or are doing. Too many logistical issues in doing that including the ever changing cap size and market place. Teams don't just give contracts that speak to league leading performance to all players. I think you have to be a high draft pick to get that kind of deal in the first place. And no it's not his fault that hasn't been paid big money. You really need to understand how the NFL world does their contracts to realize why it's not his fault.Also you're being contradictive in saying it's his fault that he didn't get paid before and now that he's trying to get paid your saying it's fault that he asking to be paid. Sounds like you just don't like LJ and it's LJ's fault.The issue about the LT comparisons are really for the fans and media. It's likely not any part of any serious discussions taking place between KC and LJ's agent IMO. There's little realavence to the comparison. They are both top notch backs and should paid like it. It's fairly simple really.

 

[Family Matters]

Is there any reasonable possibility of a trade happening before the season? How soon would it have to happen for it to make sense for the other team...? That is, how many weeks of preseason would the other team want at minimum for LJ to learn the offense?

I think it's possible but as each week passes the odds drop more than 20%. You can't wait late and expect a guy to come in a learn your playbook and be effective in blitz pick ups and such. That's part of the reason few trades are done late pre-season.I also think that if KC wanted to trade LJ they would have. I think they want and need him and plan to get something done. LJ missing some time right now isn't hurting them too much but they need him soon if they are to have a successful start.

 

[Snotbubbles]

I can't imagine that people think LJ doesn't deserve a new contract. Here goes some of the people who made more money than LJ last season:

Terrelle Smith

Chris Hetherington

Rock Cartwright

Chris Massey

Verron Hayes

Corey Schlesinger

Dan Kreider

Obafemi Ayavadejo

Brad Hoover

Marshall Faulk

Aaron Stecker

Brian Calhoun

Damion Shelton

William Henderson

Chad Morton

Nick Goings

Marcel Shipp

Jason McKie

Mike Karney

Adrian Peterson (Bears)

Kevan Barlow

Jameel Cook

Derrick Blaylock

Shawn Bryson

Jeremi Johnson

Domanick Williams

Cedrick Benson

DeShaun Foster

 

[massraider]

Be strong, LJ! Don't cave in!

 

[texasheat]

I'm still waiting to see an interview in the next week or so where he claims he is just trying to put food on the table.

 

[Dancing Bear]

Family Matters,

Who is contradicting oneself?

LJ is one of the top RB's in the league. Therefore his contract should fall into the category of incentives based on his peers.

Also for reference, if memory serves me Fred Taylor, Ricky Williams and Edgerrin James have had contracts with this sort of incentive.

It's easy to setup, easy to track and minimizes the financial risk of the team if you ask me ... Don't give me this concern over "cap" stuff either. Do you honestly believe that it is easier to budget the $30 Million in guaranteed money that LJ is looking for versus the possible equivalent in performance incentives? Any team would love to have that sort of setup; performance begets compensation. It's the real world ...

I am a firm believer in LJ; I just don't think he or his agent is approaching this in the right manner. He should be in Camp; honoring his contract. Working on a deal which is equitable based on being compensated for his future performance.

If we want Football to succeed, then the players will have to take on contracts with performance as a criterion. How many Ryan Leaf-like busts do you really think the NFL and Ownership can absorb?

 

[Family Matters]

Family Matters,Who is contradicting oneself?LJ is one of the top RB's in the league. Therefore his contract should fall into the category of incentives based on his peers.Also for reference, if memory serves me Fred Taylor, Ricky Williams and Edgerrin James have had contracts with this sort of incentive.It's easy to setup, easy to track and minimizes the financial risk of the team if you ask me ... Don't give me this concern over "cap" stuff either. Do you honestly believe that it is easier to budget the $30 Million in guaranteed money that LJ is looking for versus the possible equivalent in performance incentives? Any team would love to have that sort of setup; performance begets compensation. It's the real world ...I am a firm believer in LJ; I just don't think he or his agent is approaching this in the right manner. He should be in Camp; honoring his contract. Working on a deal which is equitable based on being compensated for his future performance.If we want Football to succeed, then the players will have to take on contracts with performance as a criterion. How many Ryan Leaf-like busts do you really think the NFL and Ownership can absorb?

I can agree with where I think you are coming from but the Ryan Leaf example has no merit to this case in any way shape or form. Here's what I agree witho not pay large guarenteed money to unproven rookies. Pay for performance sounds like a great solution.But we live in a different world that is rules by the CBA. Therefore you must play by the CBA rules. It doesn't really matter if we like it or not. LJ and his agent can't change it so they have to abide by it.Honor the contract? Well that's fine if the owners would ablige as well. They can cut a player anytime they like. Even if they have 10 years remaining on their contract. So It would be nice if they both had the same set of rules in the contract then it would be more fair. But we're just dreaming.....right?