J. Addai (1 Viewer)

[Tau837]

Recent post on Addai:

...As for Addai, here is an interesting look at his performance:1st 8 games: 105/490/2 rushing (4.7 ypc), 19/144/1 receiving (7.6 ypr) on 26 targets, 10.2 fppg (no PPR)2nd 8 games: 121/591/5 rushing (4.9 ypc), 21/181/0 receiving (8.6 ypr) on 24 targets, 13.4 fppg (no PPR)4 playoff games: 76/294/2 rushing (3.9 ypc), 22/118/0 receiving (5.4 ypr) on 23 targets, 13.3 fppg (no PPR)First off, he averaged double figure fantasy points in each stretch... very solid. Secondly, look at how he improved his ypc and ypr in the second half as his workload increased, albeit slightly.Also, look at how his carries and targets went up in the playoffs:13.1 carries per game in 1st 8 games, 15.1 carries per game in second 8 games, 19 carries per game in the playoffs3.3 targets per game in 1st 8 games, 3.0 targets per game in second 8 games, 5.8 targets per game in the playoffsCould this carry over? Probably not at these levels--19 carries and 5.8 targets per game would be 304 carries and 93 receptions... but his usage could certainly go up given the success he had this year, even if Rhodes stays.ETA: For those who might criticize his ypc and ypr in the playoffs, I meant to mention that he played KC, BAL, NE, CHI. Given that, his performance is pretty impressive IMO.

Obviously, this was all *with* Rhodes, so I think Addai can provide great value even if Indy brings in someone else.

 

[Burning Sensation]

If Addai is the next top 5 back.....why couldn't he seem to keep Rhodes off the field more last year?

According to Dungy and team brass, they didn't want to rush Addai in there when they had a capable player in Rhodes to take some of the load. They run a pretty complex offense, but Addai took to it rather quickly.

What would you expect Indy brass to say?....."Our new starting RB since Rhodes left via free agency just couldn't take over the starting job last year....Rhodes did many things better than Addai......we hope that Addai can handle the load this year."

Um, yes, if it were true.

 

[mlball77]

There have been some very good points in this thread, enough to slightly alter my view on Addai for 07. I still think his odds for top 5 are pretty low, but after reading much of this thread I’ll concede it seems possible. I still think #8-#12 seems much more realistic, but his upside is greater than I originally commented.

Here are a few reasons for my opinion on the 8-12 range:

1) Although Addai was very productive with 54% the RB touches for INDY in 06 and his touches should increase, I feel that with his increased role his production per touch is likely to drop off a bit. His overall production is likely to increase, but probably not by as much as many here are thinking. I don’t think its realistic to say he got 1400 yards on 54% of the touches and since he is likely to get 70% in 07 he will post around 1815 total yards. I don’t (yet) see him as a guy that gets stronger and more productive as the game wears on and he gets a ton of touches… but maybe I’m wrong??

2) I’m not saying he is incapable of carrying the load for an entire year, but my personal projections for him will be slightly tempered until I get a stronger feeling that he can. The same argument has been made about Benson (or Chester Taylor last year). And while it’s not the strongest argument, I think it often has at least touch of validity.

3) My positional rankings for any player are not only influenced by said player’s production, but also others at that position. So ranking Addai at #10 wouldn’t exclusively be a statement about my beliefs about his production in 07.

I personally like Addai, but I guess I’m simply not as high on him as many others are. No doubt he is in a good position to succeed in 07 (in FF terms). In my preliminary RB tiers I will gladly admit that after my top 7 there are ton of guys that are all lumped together that I am having trouble separating from one another (and Addai is in that group for me… but maybe some of the points in this thread will bump him to the top of that group for me now). Hopefully I’ll see and read much more about Addai this off season and in the upcoming preseason to get a better handle on what to expect from him in 07.

 

[Tau837]

way to I take Bush over Addai

I don't necessarily disagree, but here is a previous post on Bush:

Assuming Deuce is in NO in 07, it will be very interesting to see where Bush & Deuce are drafted next year. As has been said, in ppr Bush is already a top 10 back. But if he keeps running the ball as well as he did this week in the playoffs, I can see him taking over more & more of Deuce's carries next year.Though I suppose the flip to that is if it ain't broke don't fix it, so NO might not change the mix up much. Either way, as a Bush fan & owner, I've been more than pleased with this second half of the season and am excited to watch him play for years to come.

Agree that it will be very interesting. In my non-PPR league, after week 16 McAllister is ranked 10th and Bush is 14th. In my 0.5 PPR league, after week 16, Bush is ranked 10th and McAllister is 11th.Here is McAllister's base salary info from nflpa.org:2006 1450000.00 2007 2600000.00 2008 3600000.00 2009 5200000.00 2010 6200000.00 2011 7100000.00 2012 8100000.00 I think it's obvious he won't see the last 3-4 years of those salaries, but next season's number looks fine. And, being under contract until 2012, he probably has enough bonus money that hasn't yet hit the cap that cutting/trading him soon would be a substantial cap hit.So assuming both of them are around next season, and further noting how successful the combination was this year, I think the Saints would be smart to keep things largely the same, maybe slide a small amount of Deuce's touches to Bush. Of course, Bush could easily be more productive with his touches from the beginning of next season, so he could have a better fantasy season even if he doesn't get more touches.Take a look at Bush's splits:Games 1-8 (8 games): 80/200/0 rushing (2.5 ypc) and 47/318/0 (6.8 ypr) receiving on 60 targets = 51.8 fantasy pointsGames 9-15 (7 games): 71/338/5 rushing (4.8 ypc) and 40/417/2 (10.2 ypr) receiving on 59 targets = 117.5 fantasy pointsProject his games 9-15 to 16 games and you get 162/771/11.4 rushing and 91/948/4.6... over 1700 total yards and 16 TDs, plus 91 catches for those in PPR leagues. That's 264 fantasy points (no PPR), which in the past 5 complete seasons would have ranked no lower than tied for RB7, and as high as tied for RB3.Do I think Bush will produce like the past 7 games for all of next season? No, this probably represents his upside... but he will certainly be better than he was in the first 8 games this year... and all of this assumes he gets no more touches.I hope all the talk next preseason is that things stay the same, and that causes Bush to offer some value.

He has plenty of upside too, even if his situation (McAllister) doesn't change.

 

[djcolts]

Some guy on the Indystar.com Colts forum posted this:

Colts | Team interested in BarlowTue, 3 Apr 2007 13:20:47 -0700Tom Pelissero, of the Green Bay Press Gazette, reports the Indianapolis Colts have shown interest in unrestricted free-agent RB Kevan Barlow (Jets), according to his agent

Even though I've not been impressed with Barlow - he would fit the need of a bigger back.

 

[switz]

If Addai is the next top 5 back.....why couldn't he seem to keep Rhodes off the field more last year?

According to Dungy and team brass, they didn't want to rush Addai in there when they had a capable player in Rhodes to take some of the load. They run a pretty complex offense, but Addai took to it rather quickly.

What would you expect Indy brass to say?....."Our new starting RB since Rhodes left via free agency just couldn't take over the starting job last year....Rhodes did many things better than Addai......we hope that Addai can handle the load this year."

Um, yes, if it were true.

AQnd considering the Colts had said they didn't want to rush Addai in, before last season even started, I'd say Dungy's words have a ring of truth. And the fact they gave Addai all the starts in the playoffs indicates he did beat out Rhodes for the job.

 

[zadok]

Food for thought: Take away Addai's monster game against a pathetic Eagles run defense, and you get over the other 15 games:

202 carries for 910 yds (4.5 ypc) 3 TDs, 38 receptions for 288 yds (7.6 ypr) 1 TD.

144 fantasy points / 15 games = 9.6 ppg

Color me unimpressed.

Granted, he did have a good Wild Card game and Super Bowl.

 

[Burning Sensation]

Food for thought: Take away Addai's monster game against a pathetic Eagles run defense, and you get over the other 15 games:

202 carries for 910 yds (4.5 ypc) 3 TDs, 38 receptions for 288 yds (7.6 ypr) 1 TD.

144 fantasy points / 15 games = 9.6 ppg

Color me unimpressed.

Granted, he did have a good Wild Card game and Super Bowl.

These is easily my pet peeve when analyzing players. Take away his worst game and give me his average points per game.P.S. 4.5 YPC after taking out his best game is still pretty impressive.

 

[zadok]

These is easily my pet peeve when analyzing players. Take away his worst game and give me his average points per game.

Are you saying his numbers against the Eagles were not a fluke?

 

[Burning Sensation]

These is easily my pet peeve when analyzing players. Take away his worst game and give me his average points per game.

Are you saying his numbers against the Eagles were not a fluke?

Are you saying his worst game of the season was not a fluke?

 

[zadok]

These is easily my pet peeve when analyzing players. Take away his worst game and give me his average points per game.

Are you saying his numbers against the Eagles were not a fluke?

Are you saying his worst game of the season was not a fluke?

Which one? He had games (fantasy points) of 4.8, 2.8, 5.7, 6.7, 3.6, and a 6.1 in the playoffs. Those are all much closer to 9.6 ppg than the 44.8 game against the Eagles. He never even broke 20 during the regular season - and only barely during the playoffs. Considering he had 6 games of 7 points or less, and only 2 of 20+, which would you eliminate as a fluke?

 

[roarlions]

I would remove the NYG, Jax, and Cincy games as flukes on the low side (no more than 8 carries in any of those games) and the Philly and KC games on the high side (24 and 25 carries in those games).

 

[BigSteelThrill]

I would remove the NYG, Jax, and Cincy games as flukes on the low side (no more than 8 carries in any of those games) and the Philly and KC games on the high side (24 and 25 carries in those games).

But...Are you expecting him to have a better chance at having games with 8 or less carries in '07?And/or...Are you expecting him to have a better chance at having games with 24+ carries in'07?

 

[Burning Sensation]

I would remove the NYG, Jax, and Cincy games as flukes on the low side (no more than 8 carries in any of those games) and the Philly and KC games on the high side (24 and 25 carries in those games).

But...Are you expecting him to have a better chance at having games with 8 or less carries in '07?And/or...Are you expecting him to have a better chance at having games with 24+ carries in'07?

I certainly expect him to have at least 15-18 touches in every game in 2007. So take all the games where he did so in 2006, and give me his per game average in FF points. That is pretty much what i expect out of him this year barring injury.

 

[roarlions]

I certainly expect him to have at least 15-18 touches in every game in 2007. So take all the games where he did so in 2006, and give me his per game average in FF points. That is pretty much what i expect out of him this year barring injury.

I actually think he will have about 15 - 18 rushes per game and then another 3 or 4 receptions per game. So I expect touches to be in the 18 - 22 range.

 

[Keith Lewis]

Colts looking at Barlow? — Running back Kevan Barlow, who played with the New York Jets last season, has reportedly drawn some interest from several NFL teams, including Indianapolis. Buffalo and Tennessee may be in the mix as well.

 

[switz]

Colts looking at Barlow? — Running back Kevan Barlow, who played with the New York Jets last season, has reportedly drawn some interest from several NFL teams, including Indianapolis. Buffalo and Tennessee may be in the mix as well.

Backup fodder

 

[LBH]

being in that offense makes me think Addai will be a solid rb1 for a long time. I cnat imagine his touches and stats are going to go down from last year especially with Rhodes out of the picture

 

[Burning Sensation]

Colts looking at Barlow? — Running back Kevan Barlow, who played with the New York Jets last season, has reportedly drawn some interest from several NFL teams, including Indianapolis. Buffalo and Tennessee may be in the mix as well.

Barlow to the Colts is an Addai owners ultimate situation.Addai may not be the most talented back in the league, and is not great at any one thing, but he is good at everything. With Barlow his only competition for touches on the best offensive team in the league he is primed for a big year.

 

[Keith Lewis]

I agree about Barlow being ideal for an Addai owner.

What do you all think if the Colts drafted Brian Leonard? I've seen quite a few mocks with him going to Indy, what would happen to Addai stats, would this also be ideal for Addai, I don't know much about Leonard.

 

[Burning Sensation]

I agree about Barlow being ideal for an Addai owner. What do you all think if the Colts drafted Brian Leonard? I've seen quite a few mocks with him going to Indy, what would happen to Addai stats, would this also be ideal for Addai, I don't know much about Leonard.

Anyone other than Dillon, Turner, Peterson, and Lynch is a good thing for Addai.

 

[switz]

I agree about Barlow being ideal for an Addai owner. What do you all think if the Colts drafted Brian Leonard? I've seen quite a few mocks with him going to Indy, what would happen to Addai stats, would this also be ideal for Addai, I don't know much about Leonard.

Anyone other than Dillon, Turner, Peterson, and Lynch is a good thing for Addai.

Anyone other than Turner and Peterson are good for Addai. And please, none of the RBs you listed are even remote interests of the Colts. Additionally, Dillon and Lynch would not be any competition to Addai.

 

[NattyDread]

I'm wondering if the NFL draft has changed any minds around here. The Colts went through 9 picks without selecting a running back. That would seem to suggest that the team has a lot of confidence in Addai. And the free agents left at the position are less than awe-inspiring (Chris Brown, Corey Dillon, etc.).

The knock on Addai in this thread has generally been along the lines of he's not durable or he's never carried the load. As mentioned in an earlier post, the not durable tag could be applied to many top picks, including Westbrook, Gore, and Maroney. Gore especially has had some serious injuries and loses Norv. As far as not carrying the load, we'll have to see. For me, that question is one questionable minus in a sea of clear plusses from the dynasty perspective:

1. Lead RB for the Colts O

2. Young

3. No big threats for touches

4. Unlikely to face 8 man fronts

5. Four years away from free agency

6. Should be good for at least 50 receptions after hauling in 40 last year while splitting time

7. With so much invested in Peyton, Wayne, Harrison, and Freeney, the Colts are unlikely to be able (capwise) to sign or draft a big name runner to compete any time in the near future.

The Colts appear ready to ratchet up his touches. Here's a excerpt from an interview with Tony Dungy on the Colts website at http://mirror.colts.com/sub.cfm?page=artic...00-c0031351b861

Q: The Colts enter the rookie mini-camp with DeDe Dorsey and Kenton Keith as the backup running backs. What makes you feel comfortable about those guys?

A: With DeDe, I remember (then-Minnesota Vikings Head Coach) Denny Green telling me when he was getting ready to play (quarterback) Daunte Culpepper. He hadn’t actually played him in a game, but Denny had watched him on the scout team. Denny used to run the scout team the same way I do. Denny would say, ‘He’s ready to go.’ He just knew. DeDe’s the same way. Just from having him and being in the huddle with him, questions that he asked and the way he would do things for us on the scout team, I’ve got a lot of confidence in him. I feel like he’s going to be ready to go. Kenton, I don’t know as much about, but (Colts Scout) Cal Murphy – our guy up in Canada – has said, ‘This guy can play.’ Between the three of those guys (second-year veteran Joseph Addai is the starter), I think we’re going to be in pretty good shape.

Q: Joseph was asked recently, ‘Can you carry the load?’ He said, ‘Ask me when the year’s over.’

A: Joseph is going to be fine. I think we did it the right way in terms of giving him 200 carries during the course of the year. Maybe he has to pick that up a little bit. He’s going to be ready to go. I don’t think it’s going to be the type of thing where Joseph’s going to go from 14 carries a game to 30. He might go from 14 carries to 18 or 19, then we’ll find 10 carries from some other people. We feel like we can make improvements in-house. That’s one way to do it. Our guys will.

 

[Carter_Can_Fly]

In dynasty, the more I evaluate RB situations I don't see why he isin't one of the lead guys in the class right after the big 3.

Barring injury Addai is in for a big fantasy year.

 

[LBH]

The only thing from stopping addai from having a big fantasy year is an injury

 

[switz]

1) Although Addai was very productive with 54% the RB touches for INDY in 06 and his touches should increase, I feel that with his increased role his production per touch is likely to drop off a bit. His overall production is likely to increase, but probably not by as much as many here are thinking. I don’t think its realistic to say he got 1400 yards on 54% of the touches and since he is likely to get 70% in 07 he will post around 1815 total yards. I don’t (yet) see him as a guy that gets stronger and more productive as the game wears on and he gets a ton of touches… but maybe I’m wrong??

YPC < 15 carries 4.9YPC >= 15 carries 4.7not much difference... maybe a small drop off.The Colts had 413 rush attempts last year between Rhodes and Addai. Assuming Addai only gets 80% of that. it's still 330 (20/game), and if you take his 4.7 average on that, it's 1550 yards, plus receptions. I don't reaqlly see the downside.

 

[Carter_Can_Fly]

The only thing from stopping addai from having a big fantasy year is an injury

I agree; if the season were to start tomorrow barring injury he would be as close to a lock to finish in the top 10 in fantasy and that is not just RB's. The only thing that may hurt Addai is Indy brining in a goaline guy like Dillon. But I don't see this as the case as Addai was quite effective last year scoring TD's.

 

[NattyDread]

Just taking a look at some of the startup dynasty league drafts posted in the Shark Pool, and Addai seems to be consistently going in the top 10 overall. Are these folks and many in this thread (me included) just being too bullish? The composite staff dynasty rankings have Addai at #15 RB, #18 overall. I guess I just fundamentally don't understand the discrepancy.

 

[switz]

Just taking a look at some of the startup dynasty league drafts posted in the Shark Pool, and Addai seems to be consistently going in the top 10 overall. Are these folks and many in this thread (me included) just being too bullish? The composite staff dynasty rankings have Addai at #15 RB, #18 overall. I guess I just fundamentally don't understand the discrepancy.

The staff is not the best at ranking dynasty talent. Neither is the group concensus.My personal opinion - sometimes people take a stand on players and refuse to change their opinion regardless. That's what happened with Addai. Too many predicted he'd stink to now admit he's great.I guarantee he'll finish a top-10 RB.

 

[LBH]

Just taking a look at some of the startup dynasty league drafts posted in the Shark Pool, and Addai seems to be consistently going in the top 10 overall. Are these folks and many in this thread (me included) just being too bullish? The composite staff dynasty rankings have Addai at #15 RB, #18 overall. I guess I just fundamentally don't understand the discrepancy.

The staff is not the best at ranking dynasty talent. Neither is the group concensus.My personal opinion - sometimes people take a stand on players and refuse to change their opinion regardless. That's what happened with Addai. Too many predicted he'd stink to now admit he's great.I guarantee he'll finish a top-10 RB.

I dont know how it could be any more obvious why Addai should be considered a top 10 dynasty rb