Jabar Gaffney (1 Viewer)

[frogpond11]

Gaffney's stat lines from the final 2 games last season:

Week 16 vs PHI: 7 catches for 69 yards + 2 TDs

Week 17 vs KC: 14 catches for 213 yards + 0 TDs

I actually started Gaffney in my league championship game last season and benefited greatly from that 213 yard performance..

Question is...is there a DEN WR worth owning this year? I know they drafted Demariyus Thomas and Eddie Royal is still around as well. I'm just curious as to how all of that will shake out.

Denver's passing stats from 2009:

341 completions on 558 attempts(61.1%) for 3,627 yards, 21 TDs, and 13 INTs

The Broncos actually attempted more passes than the Saints(544), Giants(542), "pass-happy" Steelers(536), and slight more than both the Cowboys(550) and the Packers(553).

I was just wondering what "the pool" had to say about the Denver WR situation and who might be a viable candidate this season.. so who ya got?

Eddie Royal

Jabar Gaffney

Demariyus Thomas

???????????????????????

Justin

 

[frogpond11]

Just read this article on the topic...

http://www.gazette.com/sports/broncos-9935...ney-option.html

Gaffney could be Broncos' top receiving option

Comments 0 | Recommend 0

May 25, 2010 1:20 PM

FRANK SCHWAB

THE GAZETTE

ENGLEWOOD – After Brandon Marshall was traded, the Denver Broncos needed a new go-to receiver. Eddie Royal is still a popular name among fans. Then first-round pick Demaryius Thomas was tabbed as Marshall’s replacement, because of physical similarities.

None of this should surprise, or seems to matter, to Jabar Gaffney. He’ll turn 30 years old in December but has never led a team in receiving over his eight seasons. Yet, he seems the clear choice to be the Broncos’ leading receiver this year.

Gaffney had more than twice as many yards as Royal last year, even though for most of the season Royal had a bigger role in the offense. Thomas hasn’t even practiced yet as he recovers from foot surgery, and the track record for rookie receivers isn’t great.

Gaffney has a great opportunity in the post-Marshall era, but he isn’t getting too excited about it.

“It’s another chance to go out here and play the game,” Gaffney said. “Hopefully I can go out and get a couple more plays or whatever, but I just love to go out and play regardless.”

Gaffney was probably underutilized last season. He was mostly a third receiver behind Marshall and Royal for 14 weeks. Then in the final two weeks, with Royal out of both games and Marshall deactivated for the finale, he had 21 catches for 282 yards and two touchdowns. In 14 games, Royal had 345 yards and no touchdowns.

Gaffney won’t produce at that pace over a full season, but he could easily beat his career best of 732 yards set last year. His first 1,000-yard season seems like a possibility in an offense that relied almost exclusively on Marshall over the second half of last season. Gaffney’s 213-yard game against the Chiefs in the finale, 1 yard short of tying Shannon Sharpe’s franchise record, showed what he is capable of.

“The last two I just went out like I do every game,” Gaffney said. “I got a couple more opportunities, especially the last game with Brandon and Eddie not playing, and tried to take advantage of it.”

Whether any Broncos receiver will get to 1,000 yards is up for debate, however. The Broncos like to use multiple receivers, and when Josh McDaniels’ offense is running as it should, nobody hogs the catches as Marshall did last year.

“I hope that we have a lot of guys that end up being our No. 1 receiver at different times during the year,” McDaniels said. “A tight end that catches 10 balls, two different receivers that can catch that many balls during the course of the season on a certain week.”

The Broncos might not revert to forcing the ball to one receiver, as they did when Marshall caught 68 balls and nobody else got more than 19 over Marshall’s final eight games. But if Gaffney can replicate what he did against the Chiefs, he’ll have plenty of chances.

“I always felt like I can play in this league and am capable of games like that,” Gaffney said. “If situations call for it, I hope I can go out and duplicate that success.”

 

[Sweet Love]

He has Eddie Kennison written all over him: Guy who you (I) will not draft and puts up good WR3 numbers. Even after writing this, I will forget about him come draft time and pass and wonder "why did I not take him"...So is my obesssion with "upside".

 

[Tchula]

if nothing else, ill be targeting him as bye week filler

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Jeff Tefertiller has been banging this drum for awhile now, I quickly started playing the bongos alongside. I'll try and find a link but if you do a search there is a fairly lengthy thread on this. Gaffney is gonna be a solid WR this year and most are gonna sleep on him and watch him go right by. Gaffney should allow owners to take big chances on upside guys earlier in the draft.

30+ year old WRs get very little love but they are very productive and relible. I have a short list of guys that will likely out perform their slots. Gaffney isn't 30 until December but close enough.

Denver Passing game

Try that link, you should enjoy. JT posts in there too...we are definitely in the minority for the moment. NTTAWWT

 

[baconisgood]

In a word- no.

He is starting the year as the "number 1 option" right?

They had an average to below average offense last year with

1. a healthy LT- not this year as Clady tore his ACL- won't be 100% if he plays

2. a 2 time pro bowl WR. Ok Marshall is gone and replaced by a rookie coming off a foot injury entering a notoriously complicated offense

3. a solid receiving TE- replaced by ???

4. a solid FB- replaced by ???

This team is looking like a bottom of the barrel offense this year.

Then lets look at Gaffney.

In 8 years in the league he

has once caught more than 2 TDs- he managed to snag 5 in a record setting season for his offense

has never had more than 55 receptions in a season

Has never had 800 yards in a season

Then his competition

Eddie Royal- for as bad as he was last year his rookie season was still MUCH better than Gaffney's BEST season

A rookie who could well be getting looks early in the season.

Gaffney's number 1 asset- his knowledge of the system- is a declining asset relatively speaking. His 4 years in the system give him an advantage that declines with every rep and snap that other players on the team take.

And lastly- Gaffney had 87 targets last season to Stokelys 33- and yet they had the same # of RZ targets (8) and Stokely had 2 more TDs. Gaffney will not be a serious RZ threat and he is unlikely to be a serious yardage threat.

 

[Steed]

Jabar Gaffney will not win you fantasy football.

 

[Zimm]

Jabar Gaffney will not win you fantasy football.

I would stick with Bey Bey if you want a Denver WR or even in deeper dynasties i would consider Decker.

 

[Cecil Lammey]

Right now Jabar Gaffney is the only part of the Broncos passing game I want on my fantasy team in a redraft league.

I'll be out at training camp every day, reporting from the sidelines and in the media room, locker room, and this will be one of the main things I'll keep an eye on in August.

Eddie Royal was the 100th best fantasy WR last year, simply put the worst starting receiver in the league. I love Eddie, great guy, great in the community, but he's failed to recognize zone/man coverages for two years now, and last year his head was swimming trying to learn three different WR positions. This season he should be in for a bounce back season, but I don't believe he'll ever put up numbers like he did during his rookie season.

Demaryius Thomas ran only a small handful of routes in college at GaTech. Mainly he ran "9" routes (go routes) down the sideline. GaTech averaged 12 passing attempts per game running that wishbone offense. So they would run, run, run, then a couple of times a quarter they would play action and guess what ?? - Thomas would be open against single coverage down the sideline.

Scouts described Thomas' game to me like this - 'he's Calvin Johnson minus the hands' Russ Lande, my good friend from Sporting News, absolutely LOVES the upside from Thomas, but admits that he must become a more sophisticated route runner.

McDaniels offense will take a year or two for him to master, so I'm not expecting much from him although I feel he could be a prime red zone target for Orton because of his size, ability to box out defenders, and leaping ability.

Thomas has looked fantastic in limited reps during minicamp as he comes back from that foot injury. He even burned Champ for a touchdown during practice. The upside is definitely there, but he'll have to develop over time.

Gaffney looked really good last year filling in for Brandon Marshall. He knows the offense like the back of his hand, and has clearly earned the trust of Kyle Orton. Gaffney's been like another coach out on the practice field to the other receivers. Solid yet unspectacular numbers are what I'd expect from Gaffney. WR3 numbers with a few big games here and there. Marshall's targets have to go somewhere, and the first guy to get a chance at 'em will be Gaffney.

Of course, you can check out my training camp reports right here in the SP come August. We'll see if Royal or Thomas stands out to me!

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

I'm an Decker fan in this WR battle personally.

 

[treat88]

Jabar Gaffney will not win you fantasy football.

See I think he's just the opposite.While I agree he's not a guy that I would invest in heavily in a dynasty format, he's exactly the type of late round pick that can become an every week starter for a team. If he does flame out, the cost is so minimal that it's not that painful to absorb. If he runs with the opportunity and puts up an 80 catch season then, to me, that's the kind of pick that does win leagues.

 

[jeter23]

Jabar Gaffney will not win you fantasy football.

See I think he's just the opposite.While I agree he's not a guy that I would invest in heavily in a dynasty format, he's exactly the type of late round pick that can become an every week starter for a team. If he does flame out, the cost is so minimal that it's not that painful to absorb. If he runs with the opportunity and puts up an 80 catch season then, to me, that's the kind of pick that does win leagues.

I agree. Gaffney won't put up his week 17 numbers every week, obviously, and he won't have the same stats as Marshall did, but at his ADP (WR63) he is behind guys like Burleson, Floyd, Gonzalez, Bay Bay etc. Why would you not take a shot on him in the 15th round?

 

[Ministry of Pain]

In a word- no.

He is starting the year as the "number 1 option" right? Wouldn't this contradict the one word you just said?

They had an average to below average offense last year with

1. a healthy LT- not this year as Clady tore his ACL- won't be 100% if he plays

2. a 2 time pro bowl WR. Ok Marshall is gone and replaced by a rookie coming off a foot injury entering a notoriously complicated offense

You don't replace Marshall, and Thomas is not likely to be starting week 1, he's already behind because of nagging injuries

3. a solid receiving TE- replaced by ???

And that would take targets away form whom?

4. a solid FB- replaced by ???

Not following this so much

This team is looking like a bottom of the barrel offense this year. Perhaps, but they still are gonna throw the ball

Then lets look at Gaffney.

In 8 years in the league he

has once caught more than 2 TDs- he managed to snag 5 in a record setting season for his offense

has never had more than 55 receptions in a season

Has never had 800 yards in a season

But he smoked it the final 2 weeks last year in place of Marshall...pretty jaw dropping stats. And McDaniel likes him so he is gonna see plenty of targets. He might only get 6/70 most weeks but as a WR3 you can snare late, I'll take that anyday in PPR.

Then his competition ??? What competition ???

Eddie Royal- for as bad as he was last year his rookie season was still MUCH better than Gaffney's BEST season.

Shanahan isn't the coach anymore, many of his guys have been run out of town, things don't look good long term for Royal who is not much better than Davonne Bess from Miami.

A rookie who could well be getting looks early in the season.

Rookie sums that up pretty well.

Gaffney's number 1 asset- his knowledge of the system- is a declining asset relatively speaking. His 4 years in the system give him an advantage that declines with every rep and snap that other players on the team take.

And lastly- Gaffney had 87 targets last season to Stokelys 33- and yet they had the same # of RZ targets (8) and Stokely had 2 more TDs. Gaffney will not be a serious RZ threat and he is unlikely to be a serious yardage threat.

Gaffney isn't sexy, has limited upside for sure, but you can do much worse than him as a WR3/4 this season. I'm betting you hate Chris Chambers too, another 30+ age WR that isn't sexy but gets the job done. Cheers and GL

 

[Creed Bratton]

I agree with the posters who say that Gaffney is someone to keep your eye on in drafts this year. 30+ year old wide receivers who look like they are gonna get a lot of targets are undervalued in fantasy year after year, especially in PPR leagues. I think it's a pretty good strategy to go after the high upside guys first and get the veteran receivers like Gaffney that nobody wants at dirt cheap prices.

 

[Steed]

I agree with the posters who say that Gaffney is someone to keep your eye on in drafts this year. 30+ year old wide receivers who look like they are gonna get a lot of targets are undervalued in fantasy year after year, especially in PPR leagues. I think it's a pretty good strategy to go after the high upside guys first and get the veteran receivers like Gaffney that nobody wants at dirt cheap prices.

This line of thinking applies to the Driver's, Ward's, and Mason's of the league. Guys with proven track records year over year. Gaffney has only proven that he's decidedly mediocre year over year. Remember when he was on the Pats with all-world Tom Brady throwing to him before Moss and Welker? How'd that work out?

 

[gandalas]

I just took him in the 48TH round, pick 472 overall, as WR95 in my most recent Dynasty startup draft. He was the 7th or 8th WR I took, but at that pick, I figured he was DEFINITELY worth a shot. PPR league too, so I think he could finish as a top 40 WR, no problem...

 

[Creed Bratton]

I agree with the posters who say that Gaffney is someone to keep your eye on in drafts this year. 30+ year old wide receivers who look like they are gonna get a lot of targets are undervalued in fantasy year after year, especially in PPR leagues. I think it's a pretty good strategy to go after the high upside guys first and get the veteran receivers like Gaffney that nobody wants at dirt cheap prices.

This line of thinking applies to the Driver's, Ward's, and Mason's of the league. Guys with proven track records year over year. Gaffney has only proven that he's decidedly mediocre year over year. Remember when he was on the Pats with all-world Tom Brady throwing to him before Moss and Welker? How'd that work out?

I think that line of thinking applies to anybody who looks like they could be the only fantasy viable receiver on a team that looks like it could be losing games this season. And as the previous poster pointed out, his ADP is ridiculously low for a starting receiver with almost no competition for targets. I mean there's going to be 60-70 WRs off the board before Gaffney according to the latest FBG's ADP data. If Mike Furrey can get 98 catches because he got targets and knew the system, then it's not out of the realm of possibility for relatively untalented receivers to put up fantasy relevant seasons.

 

[Lott's Fingertip]

I was very happy to get Gaffney in a recent dynasty startup auction.

I spent good money on my top two WRs, then had to neglect the position to cobble together a RB corps... Gaffney was the last WR I acquired, but I expect he is more likely to stick than much of the rest of the WR stuff I am throwing against the wall.

Possibly very good stopgap PPR WR this year... we aren't talking about a high upside guy, but a guy with good WR3 possibility.

70/800/5 would have been good for overall WR 27 last year... those number are not crazy, and are in line for a PPR fantasy WR3.

(edit to fix ranking)

 

[J-Dawg]

Jabar Gaffney to me is definitely a guy I would take a flier on in a redraft league. In dynasty, probably not since I expect him to be replaced in time by Thomas or Decker or both. However, both the Denver rookies won't be major factors in the offence this season so somebody's gotta catch the ball for the Broncos. A late round pick invested in Gaffney could get you a very serviceable WR3 and a solid WR4 at a fraction of the price you'd be paying for a younger higher upside player. He's on my radar for sure.

 

[baconisgood]

In a word- no.

He is starting the year as the "number 1 option" right? Wouldn't this contradict the one word you just said?

They had an average to below average offense last year with

1. a healthy LT- not this year as Clady tore his ACL- won't be 100% if he plays

2. a 2 time pro bowl WR. Ok Marshall is gone and replaced by a rookie coming off a foot injury entering a notoriously complicated offense

You don't replace Marshall, and Thomas is not likely to be starting week 1, he's already behind because of nagging injuries

3. a solid receiving TE- replaced by ???

And that would take targets away form whom?

4. a solid FB- replaced by ???

Not following this so much

This team is looking like a bottom of the barrel offense this year. Perhaps, but they still are gonna throw the ball

Then lets look at Gaffney.

In 8 years in the league he

has once caught more than 2 TDs- he managed to snag 5 in a record setting season for his offense

has never had more than 55 receptions in a season

Has never had 800 yards in a season

But he smoked it the final 2 weeks last year in place of Marshall...pretty jaw dropping stats. And McDaniel likes him so he is gonna see plenty of targets. He might only get 6/70 most weeks but as a WR3 you can snare late, I'll take that anyday in PPR.

Then his competition ??? What competition ???

Eddie Royal- for as bad as he was last year his rookie season was still MUCH better than Gaffney's BEST season.

Shanahan isn't the coach anymore, many of his guys have been run out of town, things don't look good long term for Royal who is not much better than Davonne Bess from Miami.

A rookie who could well be getting looks early in the season.

Rookie sums that up pretty well.

Gaffney's number 1 asset- his knowledge of the system- is a declining asset relatively speaking. His 4 years in the system give him an advantage that declines with every rep and snap that other players on the team take.

And lastly- Gaffney had 87 targets last season to Stokelys 33- and yet they had the same # of RZ targets (8) and Stokely had 2 more TDs. Gaffney will not be a serious RZ threat and he is unlikely to be a serious yardage threat.

Gaffney isn't sexy, has limited upside for sure, but you can do much worse than him as a WR3/4 this season. I'm betting you hate Chris Chambers too, another 30+ age WR that isn't sexy but gets the job done. Cheers and GL

What job has Gaffney ever gotten done? Chambers' 2nd worst year is about as good as Gaffney's BEST year. In Fact Chambers' half season with KC from last year is as good as Gaffney's best year.

70/800/5 would have been good for overall WR 27 last year... those number are not crazy, and are in line for a PPR fantasy WR3.

PPR he is certainly a better option and sure take him with the 6th 7th WR spot on a deep team- but ask yourself this- if Gaffney does end up as the Broncos #1 how ####ty does their offense look? Bad offenses lead to limited TD opportunities and erratic play from a guy you need to be steady.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

PPR he is certainly a better option and sure take him with the 6th 7th WR spot on a deep team- but ask yourself this- if Gaffney does end up as the Broncos #1 how ####ty does their offense look? Bad offenses lead to limited TD opportunities and erratic play from a guy you need to be steady.

I don't play in any leagues where there isn't PPR, so maybe I'm skewed a bit. Can you project how many passing yds Denver will have this year? They had 3,800 last year and the same QB is gonna start with the same coaching staff mostly, same system...do you see them throwing for less than 3,200 yds? That's 200 a game.

If they throw for 600 yds less, where does that 3,200 get sliced up between? Work it out and I think you'll find Gaffney has a decent chance to put up solid numbers. I see him in the 65-75 catch range and probably about 850-1,000 yds...Tds are hard to predict and very few NFL WRs despite playing in a pass friendly league manage to eclipse double digit Tds.

Is 70-900-6Tds, is that outrageous?

 

[baconisgood]

PPR he is certainly a better option and sure take him with the 6th 7th WR spot on a deep team- but ask yourself this- if Gaffney does end up as the Broncos #1 how ####ty does their offense look? Bad offenses lead to limited TD opportunities and erratic play from a guy you need to be steady.

I don't play in any leagues where there isn't PPR, so maybe I'm skewed a bit. Can you project how many passing yds Denver will have this year? They had 3,800 last year and the same QB is gonna start with the same coaching staff mostly, same system...do you see them throwing for less than 3,200 yds? That's 200 a game.

If they throw for 600 yds less, where does that 3,200 get sliced up between? Work it out and I think you'll find Gaffney has a decent chance to put up solid numbers. I see him in the 65-75 catch range and probably about 850-1,000 yds...Tds are hard to predict and very few NFL WRs despite playing in a pass friendly league manage to eclipse double digit Tds.

Is 70-900-6Tds, is that outrageous?

They threw for 925 yards against KC last year- the addition of Eric Berry could cost them 100 yards itself Seriously teams don't lose 3 of their top 4 offensive players and just keep on humming- and the Broncos offense wasn't exactly a finely tuned machine last year. 3,200-3,400 yards passing sounds about right to me. As for splits I think this could be the type of team where 4-5 players have 500-750 yards receiving each- when Brady was throwing for 3,600-3,800 yards a year before Moss and Welker showed up he had ONE 1,000 yard receiver (his first year starting) even though he threw for 4,100 yards in one of those seasons, this offense is very friendly to spreading the ball around. Royal in the slot instead of learning 3 positions and just using his athleticism/hands could be good for 600 yards, Thomas could grab 400-800 (so freaking hard to project rookies), then you have 2 pass catching backs for 400-500 yards, 400 to the TEs and you have ~800-1,200 yards left over for Gaffney + 4th-5th WRs. That puts Gaffney's ceiling at ~ 900 yards in this offense. Something has to seriously click for them to be significantly better than this.

More importantly this is Gaffney's ceiling IF he grabs and holds the starting job. There are at least 2 WRs on this team significantly more physically gifted than Gaffney and he has never had 6 TDs. Even last year when he had 87 targets he still only got 2 TDs- 2 fewer than Stokely.

Then of course is thepossibility that Clady's injury throws the O-line into disarray and Orton gets banged up and Quinn or Tebow is out there- and we know what an offense run by Quinn looks like.

 

[Kit Fisto]

Jabar Gaffney will not win you fantasy football.

See I think he's just the opposite.

While I agree he's not a guy that I would invest in heavily in a dynasty format, he's exactly the type of late round pick that can become an every week starter for a team. If he does flame out, the cost is so minimal that it's not that painful to absorb. If he runs with the opportunity and puts up an 80 catch season then, to me, that's the kind of pick that does win leagues.

I can't agree with you more. See the Chaz Schilens thread. Same philosophy here. Can't tun your nose up at him because he's "Jabar Gaffney". Like you say, don't invest heavily, but he could outproduce a lot of higher-pedigreed WRs. A lot.

 

[Steed]

If you don't turn your nose upto Gaffney, then who do you turn your nose to?

I don't see the point by mentioning Chaz Schilens. He's still a relative unknown, where as Gaffney is a known underproducer.

This reminds me of the Torry Holt thread when he signed on to NE. There's some guys that don't present value no matter where you take them. 70/800/4 can be cobbled together off the WW so I don't see the point in drafting such a low upside guy.

 

[Kit Fisto]

If you don't turn your nose up to Gaffney, then who do you turn your nose to?

I don't see the point by mentioning Chaz Schilens. He's still a relative unknown, where as Gaffney is a known underproducer.

This reminds me of the Torry Holt thread when he signed on to NE. There's some guys that don't present value no matter where you take them. 70/800/4 can be cobbled together off the WW so I don't see the point in drafting such a low upside guy.

Guys with "higher upside" based on their draft status, #4 WRs on their teams who'll only catch about 25-30 balls; compared to Gaffney's 80.Gaffney is available in every dynasty league I play in. Once all the "big name rookies" are gone, I'll be targeting him in the later rounds to stash in my 8 spot.

One thing fantasy players tend to forget is this: You play to win championships (ie money), not to assemble the best looking team on paper. If Jabar Gaffney and Chaz Schilens are what puts me over the top, then so be it, I'll take it.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

If you don't turn your nose up to Gaffney, then who do you turn your nose to?

I don't see the point by mentioning Chaz Schilens. He's still a relative unknown, where as Gaffney is a known underproducer.

This reminds me of the Torry Holt thread when he signed on to NE. There's some guys that don't present value no matter where you take them. 70/800/4 can be cobbled together off the WW so I don't see the point in drafting such a low upside guy.

Guys with "higher upside" based on their draft status, #4 WRs on their teams who'll only catch about 25-30 balls; compared to Gaffney's 80.Gaffney is available in every dynasty league I play in. Once all the "big name rookies" are gone, I'll be targeting him in the later rounds to stash in my 8 spot.

One thing fantasy players tend to forget is this: You play to win championships (ie money), not to assemble the best looking team on paper. If Jabar Gaffney and Chaz Schilens are what puts me over the top, then so be it, I'll take it.

Vintage Kit Fisto here...been awhile since I've seen you amigo

 

[Todem]

Jabar Gaffney will not win you fantasy football.

No but taking late late flyers on a guy like him can help put you over the top if he indeed ends up as the WR1 in Denver this year. Guy's like him, Patrick Jeffers....you know one and dones. As a WR4 (as he should be drafted as and not any higher) he may end up providing WR2 numbers if he get's ton's of targets.I personally don't care for him and don't think he has the talent to be a #1 and when teams game plan to put their best DB on him...the truth comes out.....but sometimes...sometimes strange stuff happens in fantasty football and guy's like him can actually seal a championship for you.I have seen it too many times over the past 20 years playing this silly game.

 

[Phurfur]

Jabar Gaffney will not win you fantasy football.

I would stick with Bey Bey if you want a Denver WR or even in deeper dynasties i would consider Decker.

Neither will anyone else drafted at his ADP which is 150 on CBS Sportsline right now. He is only being drafted in 27.3% of the drafts. I know it is early but when you get to these picks it is about value. He could show some great late round value in your draft.

 

[fightingillini]

If you don't turn your nose upto Gaffney, then who do you turn your nose to?I don't see the point by mentioning Chaz Schilens. He's still a relative unknown, where as Gaffney is a known underproducer.This reminds me of the Torry Holt thread when he signed on to NE. There's some guys that don't present value no matter where you take them. 70/800/4 can be cobbled together off the WW so I don't see the point in drafting such a low upside guy.

Not everyone can have the upside to be a WR1.....so I am not sure what you expect.Gaffney's ADP currently is WR63. In my projections, the WR63 is 40-560-4 range. He's a lock to shatter that. Look at the FBG projections - the average of Dodds/Henry/Wood/Tremblay for Gaffney is 65/850/5. That's around WR30 numbers in a PPR league.Now I understand that Gaffney will almost certainly not post WR1 type numbers in DEN's offense. But the targets that went to Brandon Marshall have to go somewhere. I can see DEN wanting to pass less and run more, but DEN's defense is not all that great, so they could be playing from behind quite often. Gaffney could get 120+ targets. With 125 targets and a 60-65% catch ratio, Gaffney has the upside to catch 75-80 passes. I can't see him scoring more than 7 TDs, but numbers like 80-1050-6 is WRs type numbers. The acid test in drafting a player is asking yourself "Could I start this player under certain circumstances?" With Gaffney, the answer is yes......he should perform like a WR3 and has upside to be a WR2. Now with Torry Holt, the answer is no......he'll post 30-50 yds each week at best and will score maybe 4 TDs....in this case, you're better off rolling the dice with a high risk high reward guy.