Jayrod
Footballguy
My point is that you overreacted to "garbage TDs" by pointing to the week 2 game when clearly the post was about your week 1 TD's.Keep up the good work, Jahvid, but try to stay healthy. Think of the children.
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Jahvid Best (1 Viewer)
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Happy Ragnarok
Footballguy
Rather than pick out a specific bit of this, I want to reply to it all at once for the sake of convenience.I DON'T think the Bush concerns are totally irrelevant. Obviously, they're also not totally RELEVANT. But on both sides of the coin, it's mostly because Best hasn't built up much history yet.The reason the Bush analogy has at least a little ring of truth is this: in limited returns, Best has shown at least SOME trouble running tough, getting reliable positive yardage on the ground, and breaking tackles. He's had a couple nice runs. But mostly, he's had a whole bunch of runs where he looked a lot more overwhelmed than overwhelming. Also, the flip side of that is that when he's looked his absolute, studly, let's-bet-he'll-become-a-stud best has been when he was used over and over again in the passing game, getting into space where he could use his quickness and speed.This is an extremely limited history to build any kind of opinion on, but with this limited sample of looks, his scouting profile for what he does well, and doesn't do so well, at the NFL level, looks an awful lot like Reggie Bush's would.Can we deduce from this that like Bush, he'll always have trouble being an effective between the tackles runner, who ultimately loses touches in the running game because of this? Of course not. But if you're heavily invested in Best, and aren't at least keeping an eye on this, then you're doing yourself a disservice.I personally think he'll be fine, and that the stutter-start against the Bears is going to look a lot better in retrospect, once the season plays out and it turns out the Bears were a damn good run D. But I'd like to see some reliable 5, 5, 4, 6, 5 yd type production from him before I feel really good about his potential as the sort of true every down back that can keep a reliable plodder on the bench. I was surprised when Chris Johnson proved he was able to do this, but by golly he was. Bush never did. Best is still to be determined.
I understand you have to place your chips now in a lot of cases. And I'd advise betting on him, but I wouldn't go so far as to suggest the bet's a sure thing.
mlball77
Footballguy
Haha, that probably isn't possible until we get folks projecting his floor this year to be something like 1800 total yards (rush + rec) with 13 TDs and something like 2500 total yards with 20 TDs as attainable based on his skill set...
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This and the other topics are dumb.
Best has performed well and above expectations, whether he can sustain it is a completely different discussion what makes anyone think this season is gonna be any harder for Best than it will be for CJ3k and ADP?
Its too early to tell whether he will be great, but right now I think he will be a top 5 back, he has a very soft schedule and almost no competition in the backfield (LOL @ K. Smith stealing carries talk...)
31/98/4 Rushing
14/170/1 Receiving
Its nothing to scoff at or trivialize.
Best has performed well and above expectations, whether he can sustain it is a completely different discussion what makes anyone think this season is gonna be any harder for Best than it will be for CJ3k and ADP?
Its too early to tell whether he will be great, but right now I think he will be a top 5 back, he has a very soft schedule and almost no competition in the backfield (LOL @ K. Smith stealing carries talk...)
31/98/4 Rushing
14/170/1 Receiving
Its nothing to scoff at or trivialize.
Happy Ragnarok
Footballguy
I'm not at all sure I agree with the bolded.
Clifford
Footballguy
Obviously you missed the game. Don't let a bit of hyperbole make you not believe your eyes.
Im basing most of my D/ST opinions off of performance from week 1/2 the only 2 games id even consider benching him for are the Week 8-9 both at home against the Skins and the Jets, Id still most likely start him.May have been a little too enthusiastic in my wording, I guess relatively soft is more appropriate.
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and how they are "lucky" ?let's take MJD, a consensus top 5 pick this year.let's look at his touchdowns and see which ones are 'lucky', shall we? out of his 15 rushing TDs, guess how many came from within 8 yards ?9. out of these, around 5 or so came within 4 yards. so Im guessing MJD was lucky to have those as well according to your logic, correct ?
CalBear
Footballguy
I don't really agree with that. Reggie Bush's use in the passing game is basically on screens and possession routes. He's averaged just 7.4 yards per reception for his career. That's well below Kevin Faulk. So even in the passing game, Bush has never put up explosive numbers; he's just gotten a lot of targets. In his 4+ year career Bush has had just nine games where he averaged more than 10 yards per reception, and has just three games with 100 yards receiving. Before the above-cited week 12 game of his rookie season, Bush had 11 weeks of pedestrian performance, scoring just one rushing TD and no receiving TDs on 173 touches. So by the time Bush put up that game that looks a bit comparable to Best's week 2, he had already established a reputation as something less than explosive, and his week 12 was the aberration.
David Dodds
Administrator
Pro-rated over a full season, Best is on pace to produce this:
248 rushes, 784 yards rushing, 32 rushing TDs
112 catches, 1,360 yards receiving, 8 receiving TDs
but since game 2 was much better than game 1, I think a linear pro-ration is likely severely lowering his expected production.
My best guess here:
2,400 combined yards and 43 TDs and barely edging Jermichael Finley for MVP honors this season.
248 rushes, 784 yards rushing, 32 rushing TDs
112 catches, 1,360 yards receiving, 8 receiving TDs
but since game 2 was much better than game 1, I think a linear pro-ration is likely severely lowering his expected production.
My best guess here:
2,400 combined yards and 43 TDs and barely edging Jermichael Finley for MVP honors this season.
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CalBear
Footballguy
I don't see a single TD that Best has scored which counts as garbage. Every one was in a competitive game and only one was even in the fourth quarter.
Happy Ragnarok
Footballguy
I suspect part of his logic in calling those scores "lucky" had to do with how fortunate it was for Best that the team was even IN scoring position, which they were not because of, but DESPITE his production during the drives. Apart from the two TD runs, Best had 12 carries for 10 yards on the day. On how many of the drives of MJD's you're talking about was he so inept that he produced less than a yard per carry during the march?Best was lucky in the sense that a Goalline Back is often considered lucky. That he got scores on drives that he contributed nothing positive to.
This topic is a failure. What is the point of trying to compare him to Bush, CJ2, or AP?
Whoever you have, he is not getting traded.
When you combine his college career, the preseason, and the first two games, this kid looks like a bonifide STUD. If you are going to argue against that, you are not good at player evaluation. Any person who has Best would not in their right minds trade him for anything except maybe CJ2 or AP...guess what? Nobody is trading either one of those two guys for another running back, so it is a moot point. Now, I can see somebody offering MJD or Ray Rice after this week, but would a sane person take that offer after watching those two teams? No.
In ppr, this kid will probably level off to a solid 13 - 18 points per game, every week, with a few 30 point blasts sprinkled in. That is high rb#1 production. Bush's problem has always been twofold: injury and playing on a loaded team where he is a third down specialist, so comparing those two situations is asinine. So long as Best isn't hurt he will continue to be a beast.
Also, at people who chastise him for 'garbage' touchdowns...as a Ray Rice owner, I know that I was pretty peeved last week when McGahee took RR's garbage score...I am also pretty certain AP scored from one yard out yesterday, that still counted for 6 points right?
Whoever you have, he is not getting traded.
When you combine his college career, the preseason, and the first two games, this kid looks like a bonifide STUD. If you are going to argue against that, you are not good at player evaluation. Any person who has Best would not in their right minds trade him for anything except maybe CJ2 or AP...guess what? Nobody is trading either one of those two guys for another running back, so it is a moot point. Now, I can see somebody offering MJD or Ray Rice after this week, but would a sane person take that offer after watching those two teams? No.
In ppr, this kid will probably level off to a solid 13 - 18 points per game, every week, with a few 30 point blasts sprinkled in. That is high rb#1 production. Bush's problem has always been twofold: injury and playing on a loaded team where he is a third down specialist, so comparing those two situations is asinine. So long as Best isn't hurt he will continue to be a beast.
Also,
at people who chastise him for 'garbage' touchdowns...as a Ray Rice owner, I know that I was pretty peeved last week when McGahee took RR's garbage score...I am also pretty certain AP scored from one yard out yesterday, that still counted for 6 points right?I don't see how this is a bad thing though. basically, despite not doing much on the ground, the Lions were able to get their offense within the red zone (against a decent Bears D), and Best got tons of looks there and is the goal-line back. this is actually a great thing for best, at least in my opinion. even if he doesn't have a great game, his offense might be good enough to get him in scoring situations. All backs get crappy games (look at Gore last week), so I dont see how this is against Best in fantasy at all.
CalBear
Footballguy
Best's scores week 1 were not one-yard plunges from the goal line. The four-yard score was straight up the gut with a spin move to get to the stripe, and the seven-yarder was an explosive cut to the outside and burst through a hole off-tackle. Neither was a pedestrian TD.
Happy Ragnarok
Footballguy
I didn't say this was a bad thing. I said I suspected this was why he called them "lucky" scores.Being a team's GL back is a wonderful thing for FF purposes, and no doubts about it. I'm just saying it doesn't really change the fact the Best was terrible on balance in game one. That he had a decent fantasy week was, in a sense, "lucky." But since GL scores are part of the game, you can expect plenty of that kind of luck for any RB who remains his team's GL back.
I'm just not crazy about the people who are starting to show up and paint the situation as "two GREAT weeks". It wasn't. And I'm kind of amazed at how many people were in full panic mode about best just 48 hours ago, yet how many people are now ready to anoint him the next coming of Marshall Faulk or whatever.It's a strange hobby.
Hoss_Cartwright
Footballguy
mods, please merge the two Jahvid Best threads, thanks.
Wyld Stallyns
Footballguy
Pro-rated over a full season, Best is on pace to produce this:248 rushes, 784 yards rushing, 32 rushing TDs112 catches, 1,360 yards receiving, 8 receiving TDsbut since game 2 was much better than game 1, I think a linear pro-ration is likely severely lowering his expected production.My best guess here: 2,400 combined yards and 43 TDs and barely edging Jermichael Finley for MVP honors this season.
Happy Ragnarok
Footballguy
Right. That's why I mentioned that he had 12 carries for 10 yards other than the TD's. I guess I forgot the one was a review and they credited him the extra yard. So really, 12 carries for 9 yards other than the TD's.TD's are great. Good production during drives is a more reliable indicator of future FF success. So far, he's hit and miss on that. I like his chances moving forward, but let's not credit him for great play retrospectively in situations where he really didn't play very well.
Johnny Ice
Footballguy
Best haters =
Sorry, I have to stop lurking for a moment to weigh in on this one. The thing most are discounting too easily is that fact that Jahvid plays for the Lions. They aren't allowed to have any good fortune by the football gods. Hell, the only thing they lead the league in is patent applications for new ways to lose - and even those don't get granted.
To my eyes, and I'd argue the majority of those that watched the games, Best has "it". But playing on the Lions is enough to negate that. I can't tell you exactly what will go wrong, but I assure you that something will. That's just how the Lions roll...
That being said, the fact that he has done what he has done for the Lions (albeit 2 games) is also proof of his innate talent. Takes a lot to overcome that poor OL. So ride him while you can and enjoy the show. At least he makes it fun (OK, bearable) to watch Lions games again. But let's not annoint the guy quite yet. Let's see what happens now that defenses are going to scheme specifically to stop him. It isn't like that passing game is scaring anyone until Stafford comes back.
Back to lurking now...thanks for the entertainment and info.
To my eyes, and I'd argue the majority of those that watched the games, Best has "it". But playing on the Lions is enough to negate that. I can't tell you exactly what will go wrong, but I assure you that something will. That's just how the Lions roll...
That being said, the fact that he has done what he has done for the Lions (albeit 2 games) is also proof of his innate talent. Takes a lot to overcome that poor OL. So ride him while you can and enjoy the show. At least he makes it fun (OK, bearable) to watch Lions games again. But let's not annoint the guy quite yet. Let's see what happens now that defenses are going to scheme specifically to stop him. It isn't like that passing game is scaring anyone until Stafford comes back.
Back to lurking now...thanks for the entertainment and info.
Mister CIA
Footballguy
You're farting in the wind. After two weeks Jahvid Best is the #1 overall player in all my leagues (PPR and non-PPR). No evaluation required. There is no hyperspace button in FF to move from behind the curve to ahead of the curve (not without the use of hookers and/or alcohol).Believe me.I KNOW. Anyone who watched the game on Sunday can see his talent clear as day. I just noticed there's a certain hysteria going on around these parts. I'm not going against it, BUT:I know damn well everyones going to try to point me out as a Best hater and belittle my post.
Like I said. Best is talented; but there seems to be nothing but optimism surrounding the kid. I'm just reminding everyone that:
To be an effective Fantasy Football player and a shark; you must play devil's advocate and evaluate both sides of the argument.
Rather than pick out a specific bit of this, I want to reply to it all at once for the sake of convenience.I DON'T think the Bush concerns are totally irrelevant. Obviously, they're also not totally RELEVANT. But on both sides of the coin, it's mostly because Best hasn't built up much history yet.The reason the Bush analogy has at least a little ring of truth is this: in limited returns, Best has shown at least SOME trouble running tough, getting reliable positive yardage on the ground, and breaking tackles. He's had a couple nice runs. But mostly, he's had a whole bunch of runs where he looked a lot more overwhelmed than overwhelming. Also, the flip side of that is that when he's looked his absolute, studly, let's-bet-he'll-become-a-stud best has been when he was used over and over again in the passing game, getting into space where he could use his quickness and speed.This is an extremely limited history to build any kind of opinion on, but with this limited sample of looks, his scouting profile for what he does well, and doesn't do so well, at the NFL level, looks an awful lot like Reggie Bush's would.Can we deduce from this that like Bush, he'll always have trouble being an effective between the tackles runner, who ultimately loses touches in the running game because of this? Of course not. But if you're heavily invested in Best, and aren't at least keeping an eye on this, then you're doing yourself a disservice.I personally think he'll be fine, and that the stutter-start against the Bears is going to look a lot better in retrospect, once the season plays out and it turns out the Bears were a damn good run D. But I'd like to see some reliable 5, 5, 4, 6, 5 yd type production from him before I feel really good about his potential as the sort of true every down back that can keep a reliable plodder on the bench. I was surprised when Chris Johnson proved he was able to do this, but by golly he was. Bush never did. Best is still to be determined.I understand you have to place your chips now in a lot of cases. And I'd advise betting on him, but I wouldn't go so far as to suggest the bet's a sure thing.
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two_dollars
Footballguy
I would hold out for Rodgers/AJ/Finley and a bottle of Dom.
rocketsauce
Footballguy
In my PPR re-draft, now in its 10th year, this dude just put up 50 pts. In this past offseason I was compiling a list of the best fantasy performances of the decade for a blog I was contributing too.
There were a handful of 50 pt games by RBs, maybe 10-15. You know the names on the list? Priest Holmes, Marshall Faulk, Ladainian Tomlinson, Shaun Alexander, Clinton Portis, Chris Johnson, etc.
Just saying, when you have a guy with the potential to put up a 50 pt game, he wins your week for you. This is a guy I want on my team, regardless of his YPC. And historically in fantasy, a RB who does this isn't a flash in the pan, and we can expect to see some more explosions in the future.
There were a handful of 50 pt games by RBs, maybe 10-15. You know the names on the list? Priest Holmes, Marshall Faulk, Ladainian Tomlinson, Shaun Alexander, Clinton Portis, Chris Johnson, etc.
Just saying, when you have a guy with the potential to put up a 50 pt game, he wins your week for you. This is a guy I want on my team, regardless of his YPC. And historically in fantasy, a RB who does this isn't a flash in the pan, and we can expect to see some more explosions in the future.
you might wanna watch those "easy" TDs again.It seemed like he's had a couple of easy TDs where there was a defensive breakdown. If we take a couple of those away, he's averaging one per game. Not exactly unheard of
Exactly, just look at how many players scored 16 TD's last year. Rice, MJD, and CJ. And who would want that on their team?It seemed like he's had a couple of easy TDs where there was a defensive breakdown. If we take a couple of those away, he's averaging one per game. Not exactly unheard of
unckeyherb
Footballguy
does your league score 'easy' TDs differently? I don't think that these were easy TD's by any means, however, all RB's and WR's benefit from missed assignments, blown coverage, guys tripping etc. You can't project that stuff, but to write it off makes no sense either.It seemed like he's had a couple of easy TDs where there was a defensive breakdown. If we take a couple of those away, he's averaging one per game. Not exactly unheard of
urbanhack
Fight The Power!
Did you summon Jesus for this information?
Happy Ragnarok
Footballguy
My commish refused to credit me with all 16 of Rice's TD's.Exactly, just look at how many players scored 16 TD's last year. Rice, MJD, and CJ. And who would want that on their team?It seemed like he's had a couple of easy TDs where there was a defensive breakdown. If we take a couple of those away, he's averaging one per game. Not exactly unheard of
sho nuff
Footballguy
Or just moderated?
fightingillini
Footballguy
Doesn't even have to be a 50 pt game.....anytime a RB goes for over 30, you win the vast majority of the time.....especially since many took Best in the 3rd or 4th round and stacked up on other positions. (I took Best in the 4th in one league....after I drafted Rodgers, Austin and R White).And in PPR, Best is going to have a high floor as well, even if he only averages 3-4 yards per rush. Getting 4-5 receptions a game keeps his baseline points at 13-14, before adding in TDs or any big plays.
Johnny Ice
Footballguy
It seemed like he's had a couple of easy TDs where there was a defensive breakdown. If we take a couple of those away, he's averaging one per game. Not exactly unheard of
LittlePhatty
Footballguy
I love this game.For example, if you take away one of Jahvid's legs he would have to hop down the field instead of run. Then the Eagles D might have caught up with him on that 75 yard catch-and-score where he was clearly twice as fast as everyone else on the field.a couple of easy TDs. . . . If we take a couple of those away. . . .
Perspective indeed.
Happy Ragnarok
Footballguy
Jerome Harrison...Mike Anderson...
switz
Footballguy
I may be wrong, I know Best just had his coming out party. But to me, from my admittedly limited knowledge of him, he seems like Michael Bennett. Give him a huge hole, and he has great straight line speed, but he doesn't seem "fast" in and out of his cuts, nor shifty. He doesn't seem to be able to do much unless there is a really big hole. I dunno, I probably need to watch him more to have a better perspective, but so far, he doesn't measure up at all to the Sanders comparisons.
Matt Waldman
Footballguy
Best had the best patience of any runner in this draft class. What stands out is his willingness to take runs in directions for hard gains of 1-3 yards rather than freelance the run in a direction that might yield a 30-yarder but more likely cost the team 4-6 yards in losses. It's these 1-3 yard gains that often turn into much bigger ones as the defense wears down and the offensive line gets into a rhythm. Just like a running back, offensive lines also need to get into a rhythm which is part of the reason why one of the cliches about football is that defenses wear down and runners get stronger as the game progresses.
I think a better comparison for Best is along the lines of Marshall Faulk. He's not that good, but he belongs more on that spectrum of player.
unckeyherb
Footballguy
I admittedly have only really seen highlight clips of him and his first two NFL games, so my knowledge is limited. Everything I have seen of him shows him to be not only extremely fast but also very patient and able to make ankle-breaking cuts. He makes the tough runs up the middle and as someone else said, he doesn't try to push everything to the outside with the hopes that his speed will make up for lack of vision. He seems to be the real deal to me, not Michael Bennett.
CaptainHook
Footballguy
there was one cut he made that made my eyeballs pop out but i cant find it on any of his highlight videos. i think it was a sweep to the left side but might have been a screen pass
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