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Janikowski may finally be worth that 1st-round pick (1 Viewer)

Raider Nation

Devil's Advocate
SeaBass is about to set a new NFL record for most touchbacks in a single season. Book it.

Huge advantage making the opposing team start at their own 20 nearly every time. :thumbup:

He'll send it into the stands at Invesco!

 
SeaBass is about to set a new NFL record for most touchbacks in a single season. Book it.
This will be the most exciting thing that's happened to the Raiders since Ray Guy kicked the ball out of bounds at the 5 yard line.Except that the Raiders will only get three or four kickoffs per game.
 
To make it interesting, the NFL should make a related rules change. If you split the uprights on a kickoff, it's 3 points. That would make Seabass the NFL MVP. He'd score over 200 points and break every record in the book.

 
If he were kicking 70+ yard field goals with regularity then maybe he would have been worth a first round kick. IMO, moving up the kickoffs hurts his value compared to the rest of the league. There will be plenty of other kickers that will get a lot of touchbacks. Lots of guys have big legs these days.

From what I have seen so far in the preseason, it's the guys that kick it deep but DON'T kick it out of the end zone that will be the most valuable. I have seen plenty of returners already think that they have the stones to bring it out of the end zone . . . only to get pummeled at the 10 or 12 yard line. It will be interesting to see if their coaches would rather start on the 20 or hope they can break free for a big play.

 
Disagree, the risk/reward of things that are positive that can happen vs things that are negative is vastly overrated. Ask any NFL GM if he'd like the certaintude of the opponents starting on the 20, and do a poll. It'd be a landslide in favor of touchbacks.

 
From what I have seen so far in the preseason, it's the guys that kick it deep but DON'T kick it out of the end zone that will be the most valuable. I have seen plenty of returners already think that they have the stones to bring it out of the end zone . . . only to get pummeled at the 10 or 12 yard line. It will be interesting to see if their coaches would rather start on the 20 or hope they can break free for a big play.
I know exactly what you mean, and I don't necessarily disagree. However, for every guy who gets tackled at the 12, another one may return it to the 42. I'll take the guy who will almost guarantee the other team has to go 80 yards every time.
 
As for the kickoff rules, once the NFL realizes how drastically down scoring is this season from last, they will drop back to the 35 again. Safety be damned if they lose the sexy point scoring. Not that I think this makes things any safer.

 
As for the kickoff rules, once the NFL realizes how drastically down scoring is this season from last, they will drop back to the 35 again. Safety be damned if they lose the sexy point scoring. Not that I think this makes things any safer.
Of course this will make things safer. The new rule will result in far fewer returns. Far fewer returns equals far fewer injuries on special teams.

 
Wouldnt moving the kickoff in 5 yds make Seabass less valuable since more kickers can reach the endzone now? :shrug:
More kickers can. But Janikowski will do it on the regular. Spinning this as anything other than an advantage for the Raiders is incorrect.
No, you're wrong. Moving the kickoffs up off-sets the advantage that Janikowski's stronger leg gave him over most other kickers. Now his strong leg is negated, as his kickoffs will go through the endzone (still just a touchback), while the other kicker's kickoffs that would have been caught at the 5, 4, 3, 2, or 1 yard line will be likely to result in a touchback.
 
Wouldnt moving the kickoff in 5 yds make Seabass less valuable since more kickers can reach the endzone now? :shrug:
More kickers can. But Janikowski will do it on the regular. Spinning this as anything other than an advantage for the Raiders is incorrect.
No, you're wrong. Moving the kickoffs up off-sets the advantage that Janikowski's stronger leg gave him over most other kickers. Now his strong leg is negated, as his kickoffs will go through the endzone (still just a touchback), while the other kicker's kickoffs that would have been caught at the 5, 4, 3, 2, or 1 yard line will be likely to result in a touchback.
:confused: Janikowski had just 29 touchbacks on 93 kickoffs in 2010, which is a 31.2% rate.

That percentage should now climb to nearly 75%, if that's what Oakland decides they want him to do.

 
Except that the Raiders will only get three or four kickoffs per game.
#6 scoring offense last season, with all offensive pieces returning this year. This league changes fast, bud. Try to keep up.
Speaking to the perspective of a niner fan, that's a lot to ask.
The board's Niner fans would be amused to hear me described as one of them.Wanna bet that the team runs for 4.9 yards per carry again? They were 23rd in passing offense.
 
Ravens K Billy Cundiff actually led the league in touchbacks last season, with a whopping 40 of 79 (50.6%). Nobody else was close. New England's Stephen Gostkowski was second at 35.7%. Cundiff could probably now kick touchbacks at a 85% clip if he wanted to. There will be times with strong winds and snow when it's just impossible.

 
As for the kickoff rules, once the NFL realizes how drastically down scoring is this season from last, they will drop back to the 35 again. Safety be damned if they lose the sexy point scoring. Not that I think this makes things any safer.
Of course this will make things safer. The new rule will result in far fewer returns. Far fewer returns equals far fewer injuries on special teams.
Kickers will learn that higher hang time means that their guys can reach a returner inside the 10 consistently. We will see by mid season many kickers trying to pin a team deep on kickoffs through high hang time. This will lead to the same number of collisions and worse field position.
 
the owners didnt do this for safety alone, they did it to save a Mil or 2 at a position that they dont want to spend money on... the value of kick returners will decrease dramatically and they will be able to use that money on more important positions

/conspiracy theory

 
The way I read it is Upgrade Oakland IDPs. If other teams will score on them, they will need to go further, that means more defensive plays. I reckon this will be similar in most of NFL and even perhaps itself out from an IDP perspective. Still, that was the first thing that went through my head.

 
Except that the Raiders will only get three or four kickoffs per game.
#6 scoring offense last season, with all offensive pieces returning this year. This league changes fast, bud. Try to keep up.
Zach MillerRobert Gallery?You're right. Offensive Juggernaut.
I thought I heard they only had two returning offensive linemen. Either way, sounds like LawFitz is the one who needs to keep up.
 
Except that the Raiders will only get three or four kickoffs per game.
#6 scoring offense last season, with all offensive pieces returning this year. This league changes fast, bud. Try to keep up.
Zach MillerRobert Gallery?

You're right. Offensive Juggernaut.
I thought I heard they only had two returning offensive linemen. Either way, sounds like LawFitz is the one who needs to keep up.
The Raiders kicked the ball off on avg 4.75 times per game last season without including kickoffs to open halves.The most important offensive pieces in order were:

Hue Jackson

Darren McFadden

Jacoby Ford

Jared Veldheer

Michael Bush

Marcel Reece

Zach Miller

Jason Campbell

I'm not going to say there weren't other contributors, but everyone else on offense was marginal/expendable/replaceable. Now please explain to me why they're suddenly going to score half as many times this season, despite upgrading the OL and WR this offseason? I like Zach Miller as much as anybody, but he accounted for 5 TDs last season. This is not Antonio Gates we're talking about. Boss will pick up most of Zach's production, especially in the run game.

Hue Jackson did wonders last season. And barring some major injuries, I don't see why they can't be as good or better this season. I have yet to hear one good argument otherwise. Only the same tired Raider haterade.

 
As for the kickoff rules, once the NFL realizes how drastically down scoring is this season from last, they will drop back to the 35 again. Safety be damned if they lose the sexy point scoring. Not that I think this makes things any safer.
Of course this will make things safer. The new rule will result in far fewer returns. Far fewer returns equals far fewer injuries on special teams.
Kickers will learn that higher hang time means that their guys can reach a returner inside the 10 consistently. We will see by mid season many kickers trying to pin a team deep on kickoffs through high hang time. This will lead to the same number of collisions and worse field position.
This was my first reaction, too. And I think it supports the claim that Janikowski gains value.
 
http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009/09/value-of-touchback.html

good article from a couple years ago on this topic.

I still don't see how the rule change makes Janikowski more valuable relative to his peers. Touchbacks will become easier for everyone so his advantage will probably not be as significant.

As for setting the record, seems like they'd need to score a lot of points for that to happen.

 
I still don't see how the rule change makes Janikowski more valuable relative to his peers. Touchbacks will become easier for everyone so his advantage will probably not be as significant.
I would assume the idea is that gaining 5 yards on your kicks isn't equally valuable for everyone.If you have a guy that was typically kicking it to the 5 yard line then it doesn't make that big of a difference since guys will run it back from the goaline anyway. If you have a guy that typically kicked it to the goaline then it makes a bigger difference because 5 yards deep in the endzone is almost always a touchback.
 
I still don't see how the rule change makes Janikowski more valuable relative to his peers. Touchbacks will become easier for everyone so his advantage will probably not be as significant.
I would assume the idea is that gaining 5 yards on your kicks isn't equally valuable for everyone.If you have a guy that was typically kicking it to the 5 yard line then it doesn't make that big of a difference since guys will run it back from the goaline anyway. If you have a guy that typically kicked it to the goaline then it makes a bigger difference because 5 yards deep in the endzone is almost always a touchback.
there's diminishing returns here though. at some point, you can't gain any advantage by kicking it farther than everyone else.kicking it through the uprights isn't really much of an advantage if half of the league's kickers can kick it to the goalline or beyond.I don't know what the stats on touchbacks are, but it seems likely that he might go from being one of the top 2 or 3 kickers in terms of touchbacks to being one of the top 10 or so. That would indicate that his relative value has decreased as a result of the rule change.
 
Why won't the coaches insist that the kickers pooch kick the ball to inside the 5 and try to pin the team inside the 20? They'll already be 5 yards closer. it should be easier than before.

 
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Should implement kicking it through the uprights as a modified touchback, starting at the 15 instead of the 20.

Making special teams completely useless. Why not go all the way?

 
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If you have a kicker who is deadly accurate but doesn't have a huge leg (like a Gary Anderson or Matt Bahr back in the day), I would go as far as giving a roster spot to a guy who only kicks off. A professional soccer player maybe. Anyone who can blast the ball through the end zone every time. That gives your defense an enormous advantage.

 
If you have a kicker who is deadly accurate but doesn't have a huge leg (like a Gary Anderson or Matt Bahr back in the day), I would go as far as giving a roster spot to a guy who only kicks off. A professional soccer player maybe. Anyone who can blast the ball through the end zone every time. That gives your defense an enormous advantage.
plenty of teams have done this already.Bills used to employ Brad Daluiso with Scott Norwood back in the Super Bowl days.
 
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If you have a kicker who is deadly accurate but doesn't have a huge leg (like a Gary Anderson or Matt Bahr back in the day), I would go as far as giving a roster spot to a guy who only kicks off. A professional soccer player maybe. Anyone who can blast the ball through the end zone every time. That gives your defense an enormous advantage.
plenty of teams have done this already.Bills used to employ Brad Daluiso with Scott Norwood back in the Super Bowl days.
Seems especially important now. I'm sure there will still be some kickers who can't reach the end zone even from the 35.
 
If I am missing the sarcasm, my apologies. But you Raiders fans can't be serious, right? Janikowski, and kickers like him, had their value hurt almost as much as kick returners did. A lot more place kickers will be able to get touchbacks, making those that could before, less of a rarity, less of an asset. Simple supply and demand, really.

 
If you have a kicker who is deadly accurate but doesn't have a huge leg (like a Gary Anderson or Matt Bahr back in the day), I would go as far as giving a roster spot to a guy who only kicks off. A professional soccer player maybe. Anyone who can blast the ball through the end zone every time. That gives your defense an enormous advantage.
plenty of teams have done this already.Bills used to employ Brad Daluiso with Scott Norwood back in the Super Bowl days.
Seems especially important now. I'm sure there will still be some kickers who can't reach the end zone even from the 35.
why would it be more important now? they used to kickoff from the 35 before 1994.I don't really understand the logic you're using in this thread.
 
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If I am missing the sarcasm, my apologies. But you Raiders fans can't be serious, right? Janikowski, and kickers like him, had their value hurt almost as much as kick returners did. A lot more place kickers will be able to get touchbacks, making those that could before, less of a rarity, less of an asset. Simple supply and demand, really.
Let's step out of the world of fantasy football and pretend for a second that meaningless stats like kickoff touchbacks mattered. Now consider games going into the 4th quarter and a team that has just scored and has a FG or less lead inside 2 minutes is kicking off. To force the other team have to go at least 50 yards for a reasonable shot at a FG is nice. Very nice. A good DC can gameplan around that advantage. No last minute drama and cheap come from behind wins on sloppy kick coverage. I think anyone who has a strong footed kicker has a key strategial advantage.
 
Now consider games going into the 4th quarter and a team that has just scored and has a FG or less lead inside 2 minutes is kicking off. To force the other team have to go at least 50 yards for a reasonable shot at a FG is nice. Very nice. A good DC can gameplan around that advantage. No last minute drama and cheap come from behind wins on sloppy kick coverage. I think anyone who has a strong footed kicker has a key strategial advantage.
Strategial? I didn't know George W. Bush used footballguys.Yes, it is better to boot it into the end zone than to have someone return it. This is not news. It is also a relatively minor effect on the overall game.
 
If you have a kicker who is deadly accurate but doesn't have a huge leg (like a Gary Anderson or Matt Bahr back in the day), I would go as far as giving a roster spot to a guy who only kicks off. A professional soccer player maybe. Anyone who can blast the ball through the end zone every time. That gives your defense an enormous advantage.
plenty of teams have done this already.Bills used to employ Brad Daluiso with Scott Norwood back in the Super Bowl days.
Seems especially important now. I'm sure there will still be some kickers who can't reach the end zone even from the 35.
why would it be more important now? they used to kickoff from the 35 before 1994.I don't really understand the logic you're using in this thread.
Let's use Jason Hanson as an example.In 1993, kicking off from the 35, 59% of his kickoffs resulted in a touchback.

In 1994, kicking off from the 30, only 13.2% of his kickoffs resulted in a touchback.

That five yards, clearly, is gigantic. However, even though teams kicked off from the 35 in 1993, MOST kickers had a touchback percentage between 20-35%. So I fail to see how this rule helps "every" kicker, as someone mentioned. It will only help the kickers who have big legs to begin with. And for the people who still don't get why it's a ridiculously huge advantage to make other teams start from their own 20, further explanation will likely not help.

 
That five yards, clearly, is gigantic. However, even though teams kicked off from the 35 in 1993, MOST kickers had a touchback percentage between 20-35%. So I fail to see how this rule helps "every" kicker, as someone mentioned. It will only help the kickers who have big legs to begin with. And for the people who still don't get why it's a ridiculously huge advantage to make other teams start from their own 20, further explanation will likely not help.
two things:1st. ridiculously huge advantage? compared to what?

2nd. even if it doesn't help "every kicker", it's going to help a lot more than just 1.

let's take your example.

In 1993, 17 kickers had 15 touchbacks or more.

In 1994, 1 kicker had 15 touchbacks or more.

That 1 kicker was Brad Daluiso. Do you think he was more valuable in 1993 or 1994?

 
If you have a kicker who is deadly accurate but doesn't have a huge leg (like a Gary Anderson or Matt Bahr back in the day), I would go as far as giving a roster spot to a guy who only kicks off. A professional soccer player maybe. Anyone who can blast the ball through the end zone every time. That gives your defense an enormous advantage.
:lmao:
 
If I am missing the sarcasm, my apologies. But you Raiders fans can't be serious, right? Janikowski, and kickers like him, had their value hurt almost as much as kick returners did. A lot more place kickers will be able to get touchbacks, making those that could before, less of a rarity, less of an asset. Simple supply and demand, really.
You obviously don't know any Raider fans in real life. These clowns will be engraving rings next week.
 
1st. ridiculously huge advantage? compared to what?
Compared, obviously, to allowing the opposing team to get a big return. Even if it's not a "big" return, wouldn't you agree that MOST times a kickoff is returned, the drive starts beyond the 20?
2nd. even if it doesn't help "every kicker", it's going to help a lot more than just 1.

let's take your example.

In 1993, 17 kickers had 15 touchbacks or more.

In 1994, 1 kicker had 15 touchbacks or more.

That 1 kicker was Brad Daluiso. Do you think he was more valuable in 1993 or 1994?
I don't think your question, as stated, is a fair one.Daluiso wasn't merely "one of 17 kickers to have 15 touchbacks"... he had 39 touchbacks! SeaBass and Cundiff will provide similar advantages.

 
If you have a kicker who is deadly accurate but doesn't have a huge leg (like a Gary Anderson or Matt Bahr back in the day), I would go as far as giving a roster spot to a guy who only kicks off. A professional soccer player maybe. Anyone who can blast the ball through the end zone every time. That gives your defense an enormous advantage.
:lmao:
Something about my post obviously amused you. Please elaborate.
 

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