My question is, what have we seen to indicate that Turner is done? Rodgers may get some additional reps to keep Turner fresh. Turner may not 20 carries a game like he has in his time in ATL, but he could still get 16-18. Unless people think Turner will get hurt, I don't quite understand why the Falcons would bench Turner. Turner still had a 4.5 ypc last season.
For me, the clear indicator that he is done is that he is getting on in age. I am trying to buy Rodgers now so I have him when Turner hits the wall, which history indicates is coming within the next few seasons at best. I'm banking that by the end of this year, Rodgers will be scoring in the Top 30 backs. At his current price, that's a value. I don't think Turner is done, but the fat lady is certainly clearing her throat for that last song.
It's likely that Turner has had more solid seasons in the past than he will have in the future, but I am not sure I am ready to stick a fork in him. From what I have seen, the Falcons will be passing more and running less these days, so that alone may take some carries away from Turner. He's never been a force receiving, so that would start to reduce his time on the field as well.
He didn't play all that much in SD, so it's not like he's had 2500 career carries. In the past 15 years, we've seen 30+ year old RBs score 200 fantasy points 15 times and another 24 score at least 150. A lot of backs seem to hit a wall around 30, but several have been able to play productively into their early 30s.
I agree that Turner COULD lose it quickly, but I would think that he will be the huge majority ball carrier this year again and Rodgers will be a complimentary piece. We will need to see how this year goes before moving on to predictions for next season.
