Jason Witten, TE, Dallas Cowboys (1 Viewer)

[netnalp]

No, many people will see many targets.But you said they need to keep the secondary players happy, I disagree, secondary players are a vital role of a game as they fill many roles...Special teams, specialty packages, and other instances like that....but to say you have to put them in there and let them get targets to keep them happy is wrong. If they put them in there on certain plays, they are putting them in there for the benefit of the team, not the benefit to keep them happy. I think you know that, but you just said it wrong.Secondary players are hardly enough to take targets away from Witten in my opinion.Again 3 years straight his targets have not decreased, just gained each year, even if only a few...no matter what the situation, a new coach, new runner blah, it dont matter now as it hasnt mattered before. So if anyone can project a down year because of some factors that have not mattered before or of your gut feeling....then you have a mirror ball. Wittens biggest problem for the next couple years will be himself, or injury. No one can forsee that, so for projection purposes, nothing can dispute that a reasonable projection is between 85-90 catches at a minimum.

For Witten to catch 85-90 passes, he's going to need at least 125 targets. Romo will likely pass the ball 550 times. You have to assume 90-100 targets to the backs and 90-100 more targets goes to the other WRs/TEs, which leaves about 350-360 targets for Witten, Austin and Bryant. If Witten gets his 125-130 targets, that leaves only 225-230 targets for Austin and Bryant combined. If that's your distribution, then you must think one of Austin or Byrant is going to seriously bust.

Witten has had 121, 123, 125 targets each of the last 3 years and caught 90 balls each of the last 2 years, its the same argument and point that must be taken into account that I've been making. I see no reason what so ever from my point of view why his targets would decrease. And we are talking about targets, when in actuallity, targets or not...he performs. He has great hands and can make big plays when ever he has the ball. I dont see why a WR who didnt play a factor much last year, is gonna play a bigger factor now.So..yes I believe Bryant has a good chance to bust, Not saying he will, but who knows with this guy. Why is everyone so sure Bryant wont get in trouble again?...he does have a injury history too.

I suspect, being in the same division, there might be some thinking that Dez is physically more talented than Nicks, and Nicks is doing really well so Dez should at least do that. It's possible Dez flops like Crabtree did his 2nd year, or he plays really well but there isn't enough targets to gain big numbers. I think Austin and Dez will water each other down, the one that is open when Romo makes his read, gets the ball, if neither are he's dumping it to Witten.

 

[netnalp]

This article indicates that in his 8 games as head coach, Garrett's offense targetted the WRs less than any other coaches target theirs and Garrett's offense targets TE's more than anyone else. Targets to the TE increased to 34.2% of passing attempts compared to 29.9% when Garrett was the OC.

http://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2011/06/09/fantasy-head-coach-offensive-coordinator-trends/

 

[Unwrittenlaw]

In 6 games with Romo at the helm last year

Witten 51 targets/Austin 44 targets/Bryant 36 targets

Witten 32 rec/Austin 36 rec/Bryant 22 rec

Witten 405 yds/Austin 524 yds/Bryant 265 yds

Prorate over a 16 game season and you get for Witten:

131 targets

85 rec

1080 yds - possible but it seems 11 yds/rec seems to be his norm so it'll probably be around in the 920-950 range

Prorate over a 16 game season and you get for Austin

117 targets

96 rec

1397 yds - very possible because that yds/rec seems to be a little below his norm

Prorate over a 16 game season and you get for Bryant

96 targets

59 rec

706 yds - possible because 12 yds/rec seems to be his norm

 

[ThePittbully]

I think the real questions are:1)How quickly if at all does Tyron Smith turn into a starting quality RT?2)Does Doug Free continue his above average play at LT?If these guys are able to consistently win match-ups 1:1 then Witten will release into the pattern more frequently than he did early on last season. If this is the case, I'd expect his targets/yards to align very closely with last season despite the return of Dez.Additionally, I have to wonder if Witten's performance late in the season doesn't cause Garrett to rethink how red-zone priorities get distributed. Witten was very effective in that area in the second half of 2010 and I can't see the wisdom in simply going away from something that worked so well.I think that Witten's showing in the second half springboards him into increased 1st and 2nd down looks and a higher priority read in the red zone. With Dez factored back into the equation, I'd guess he ends up with what has been an about average season for him 3 of the last 4 years with a slight bump to his TD's.95ish catches, 1000ish yards, 7 TDs

Id say 90 rec 1100 yards 7 TDs

 

[Go deep]

In 6 games with Romo at the helm last year

Witten 51 targets/Austin 44 targets/Bryant 36 targets

Witten 32 rec/Austin 36 rec/Bryant 22 rec

Witten 405 yds/Austin 524 yds/Bryant 265 yds

Prorate over a 16 game season and you get for Witten:

131 targets

85 rec

1080 yds - possible but it seems 11 yds/rec seems to be his norm so it'll probably be around in the 920-950 range

Prorate over a 16 game season and you get for Austin

117 targets

96 rec

1397 yds - very possible because that yds/rec seems to be a little below his norm

Prorate over a 16 game season and you get for Bryant

96 targets

59 rec

706 yds - possible because 12 yds/rec seems to be his norm

Austin actually had 54 targets not 44. In addition, Romo barely played the 6th game, so i would only count the first 5 games. Which the targets/receptions/yards looked like this:

Austin - 46/33/486

Witten - 38/23/270

Bryant - 29/18/211

Prorated over 16 games:

Austin - 147 targets, 106 rec, 1555 yards

Witten - 122 targets, 74 rec, 864

Bryant - 93 targets, 58 rec, 675 yards

Im sure that is going to shift some from Austin to Bryant, but anyone thinkng Bryant is going to be the #1 WR in Dallas this season is

Wittens numbers should be pretty close.

 

[treat88]

This article indicates that in his 8 games as head coach, Garrett's offense targetted the WRs less than any other coaches target theirs and Garrett's offense targets TE's more than anyone else. Targets to the TE increased to 34.2% of passing attempts compared to 29.9% when Garrett was the OC.http://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2011/06/09/fantasy-head-coach-offensive-coordinator-trends/

This seems a little silly. He was the OC before HC, so any changes to the offense were made due to personel changes, not because he became head coach. When he gets Romo back I expect the offense will change a little from his 8 games as HC with Kitna.

Does it not also seem a little silly to valuate Witten based largely on the 5 games in 2010 prior to Romo going down when we have 3 previous entire seasons worth of data with Romo at the helm indicating how he will use Witten?I'm not suggesting this is what you have done MrTwo, but several in this thread have.Unless someone sees signs of major physical decline in Witten or projects Dallas' OL to be significantly worse at the tackle spots I just don't see good reason to project Witten's numbers to change drastically in comparison to the prev. 4 seasons. I understand the mouths to feed argument but I don't think the WR position steals significant numbers of targets from the TE position regardless of who the WR's are. Austin and Bryant may battle amongst themselves for those targets, but Witten's skillset is unique amongst Dallas' receivers and the types of patterns and reads that they target him on likely won't change unless his blocking assignments change.

 

[netnalp]

This article indicates that in his 8 games as head coach, Garrett's offense targetted the WRs less than any other coaches target theirs and Garrett's offense targets TE's more than anyone else. Targets to the TE increased to 34.2% of passing attempts compared to 29.9% when Garrett was the OC.http://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2011/06/09/fantasy-head-coach-offensive-coordinator-trends/

This seems a little silly. He was the OC before HC, so any changes to the offense were made due to personel changes, not because he became head coach. When he gets Romo back I expect the offense will change a little from his 8 games as HC with Kitna.

It mainly shows that Garrett didn't change how much the TE once he had final say on the matter as HC. Romo's injury didn't have much of an effect on Witten, it was once Bryant got hurt that Witten's TD numbers saw a boost. What that means is Witten should see about the same amount of targets, just his TDs will be down while Bryant is healthy.

 

[LHUCKS]

This article indicates that in his 8 games as head coach, Garrett's offense targetted the WRs less than any other coaches target theirs and Garrett's offense targets TE's more than anyone else. Targets to the TE increased to 34.2% of passing attempts compared to 29.9% when Garrett was the OC.http://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2011/06/09/fantasy-head-coach-offensive-coordinator-trends/

This seems a little silly. He was the OC before HC, so any changes to the offense were made due to personel changes, not because he became head coach. When he gets Romo back I expect the offense will change a little from his 8 games as HC with Kitna.

It mainly shows that Garrett didn't change how much the TE once he had final say on the matter as HC. Romo's injury didn't have much of an effect on Witten, it was once Bryant got hurt that Witten's TD numbers saw a boost. What that means is Witten should see about the same amount of targets, just his TDs will be down while Bryant is healthy.

Your post is assuming that the pass/run balance remains the same...not a safe assumption.

 

[treat88]

This article indicates that in his 8 games as head coach, Garrett's offense targetted the WRs less than any other coaches target theirs and Garrett's offense targets TE's more than anyone else. Targets to the TE increased to 34.2% of passing attempts compared to 29.9% when Garrett was the OC.http://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2011/06/09/fantasy-head-coach-offensive-coordinator-trends/

This seems a little silly. He was the OC before HC, so any changes to the offense were made due to personel changes, not because he became head coach. When he gets Romo back I expect the offense will change a little from his 8 games as HC with Kitna.

It mainly shows that Garrett didn't change how much the TE once he had final say on the matter as HC. Romo's injury didn't have much of an effect on Witten, it was once Bryant got hurt that Witten's TD numbers saw a boost. What that means is Witten should see about the same amount of targets, just his TDs will be down while Bryant is healthy.

Your post is assuming that the pass/run balance remains the same...not a safe assumption.

But isn't your post assuming that pass/run balance is somehow projectable rather than driven primarily by game context?

 

[Football Critic]

This article indicates that in his 8 games as head coach, Garrett's offense targetted the WRs less than any other coaches target theirs and Garrett's offense targets TE's more than anyone else. Targets to the TE increased to 34.2% of passing attempts compared to 29.9% when Garrett was the OC.http://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2011/06/09/fantasy-head-coach-offensive-coordinator-trends/

This seems a little silly. He was the OC before HC, so any changes to the offense were made due to personel changes, not because he became head coach. When he gets Romo back I expect the offense will change a little from his 8 games as HC with Kitna.

It mainly shows that Garrett didn't change how much the TE once he had final say on the matter as HC. Romo's injury didn't have much of an effect on Witten, it was once Bryant got hurt that Witten's TD numbers saw a boost. What that means is Witten should see about the same amount of targets, just his TDs will be down while Bryant is healthy.

Your post is assuming that the pass/run balance remains the same...not a safe assumption.

But isn't your post assuming that pass/run balance is somehow projectable rather than driven primarily by game context?

Its LHucks, he dont even know what he means.Fact: Witten is elite, nothing proves or shows, that he will not be elite again this year. For projection sake, he has to be projected as an elite, if not...your going off a hunch. And as far as hunches go, thats no real good insight.I noticed a post above saying Witten and the TEs were used more with Garrett at the Helm. I see all the naysayers about Witten not getting his because of Garrett say nothing or respond.

 

[Go deep]

This article indicates that in his 8 games as head coach, Garrett's offense targetted the WRs less than any other coaches target theirs and Garrett's offense targets TE's more than anyone else. Targets to the TE increased to 34.2% of passing attempts compared to 29.9% when Garrett was the OC.

http://www.profootba...dinator-trends/

This seems a little silly. He was the OC before HC, so any changes to the offense were made due to personel changes, not because he became head coach. When he gets Romo back I expect the offense will change a little from his 8 games as HC with Kitna.

It mainly shows that Garrett didn't change how much the TE once he had final say on the matter as HC. Romo's injury didn't have much of an effect on Witten, it was once Bryant got hurt that Witten's TD numbers saw a boost. What that means is Witten should see about the same amount of targets, just his TDs will be down while Bryant is healthy.

Your post is assuming that the pass/run balance remains the same...not a safe assumption.

But isn't your post assuming that pass/run balance is somehow projectable rather than driven primarily by game context?

Its LHucks, he dont even know what he means.Fact: Witten is elite, nothing proves or shows, that he will not be elite again this year. For projection sake, he has to be projected as an elite, if not...your going off a hunch. And as far as hunches go, thats no real good insight.

I noticed a post above saying Witten and the TEs were used more with Garrett at the Helm. I see all the naysayers about Witten not getting his because of Garrett say nothing or respond.

Let me get this straight, so if a player has been elite in the past i am suppose to asume he is going to be elite forever unless i get clear cut proof otherwise? Also, cant someone think he wont be as good this season as he has in the past without being a nasayer?

I own Witten in two of my four dynasty leagues, and i hope im wrong, but there are quite a few factors that lead me to believe he isnt going to do as well this season.

 

[Football Critic]

This article indicates that in his 8 games as head coach, Garrett's offense targetted the WRs less than any other coaches target theirs and Garrett's offense targets TE's more than anyone else. Targets to the TE increased to 34.2% of passing attempts compared to 29.9% when Garrett was the OC.

http://www.profootba...dinator-trends/

This seems a little silly. He was the OC before HC, so any changes to the offense were made due to personel changes, not because he became head coach. When he gets Romo back I expect the offense will change a little from his 8 games as HC with Kitna.

It mainly shows that Garrett didn't change how much the TE once he had final say on the matter as HC. Romo's injury didn't have much of an effect on Witten, it was once Bryant got hurt that Witten's TD numbers saw a boost. What that means is Witten should see about the same amount of targets, just his TDs will be down while Bryant is healthy.

Your post is assuming that the pass/run balance remains the same...not a safe assumption.

But isn't your post assuming that pass/run balance is somehow projectable rather than driven primarily by game context?

Its LHucks, he dont even know what he means.Fact: Witten is elite, nothing proves or shows, that he will not be elite again this year. For projection sake, he has to be projected as an elite, if not...your going off a hunch. And as far as hunches go, thats no real good insight.

I noticed a post above saying Witten and the TEs were used more with Garrett at the Helm. I see all the naysayers about Witten not getting his because of Garrett say nothing or respond.

Let me get this straight, so if a player has been elite in the past i am suppose to asume he is going to be elite forever unless i get clear cut proof otherwise? [bNot forever, but until he shows signs that he will not be elite. If no reason is out there to think otherwise, and their is not one...remember this thread is about projection. How can you project lower if no reason is out there to say or think he will get lower production.Also, cant someone think he wont be as good this season as he has in the past without being a nasayer? No, thats the point of naysayer. Here is the definition - a person who habitually expresses negative or pessimistic views: Despite a general feeling that things were going well, a few naysayers tried to cast gloom. ...Things are and have been going well for Witten, to think otherwise is casting gloom.

I own Witten in two of my four dynasty leagues, and i hope im wrong, but there are quite a few factors that lead me to believe he isnt going to do as well this season. Would it be the ones that have been shot down by facts and stats above?...Please share your reasons!

My answers bolded above.Yes I am all over Witten, no reason for me to assume, think, or predict otherwise. Its not about him having a bad season, that is very possible. But if you are assuming he will perform bad this year because of track record, age, offense, coach, or QB...facts say there is not one single reason to think he will not perform. So if you do, it is based off your own opinion, and nothing concrete but your gut. If your gut feeling or opinion is going to be taken seriously, it needs to be backed up with some sort of reason. And the reason people have stated are not correct in factual content... nothing says Garrett will have a negative impact, nothing says the added runner will have a negative impact, nothing says Romo will have a negative impact, his current track record says he will not have a negative impact since he has played thru a few injuries. He will sart going in the wrong direction...once he shows signs, and that has not happened yet.

Can he underperform yes, but I think people are missing the point. Witten has so many factors for him, and so very few against him, so how can he be projected for less?

 

[netnalp]

Has there every been a team in history that had 2 1k WRs and a 1k TE? I know it never happened with Clark, Wayne, Harrison. Never happened with Shannon Sharpe, Rod Smith & McCaffery (though they did have a season where both WRs had 1k and Sharpe had 10 TDs with 700+ yds I believe). I can't think of one instance of it ever occurring. Odds that all three of Miles Austin, Dez Bryant and Jason Witten meet expectations seems incredibly slim.

Once.1980 Jefferson 82/1340/13, Joiner 71/1132/4, Winslow 89/1290/9

 

[5Rings]

I'm down on Witten this year due to increased competition for targets and what I expect to be an improved Dalas Defense under new HC Garret. Witten is going way too early in drafts.

80 receptions

880 yards

5 TDs

Do yourself a favor pass on Witten this year and draft Kellen Winslow several rounds later to get the exact same production, if not better.

Those numbers you're projecting (which are fine ultimately) represent a significant regression for Witten, and a marked improvement for Winslow. Again, I'm not suggesting you'll be proven wrong, but you came across as though Winslow is consistently on par with Witten when, in fact, he's not. Witten has been the 1st or 2nd best fantasy TE in three of the last four seasons yet ROUTINELY goes behind the likes of Dallas Clark, Antonio Gates and the athletic flavor of the week (Jermichael Finley and Vernon Davis being recent examples).

I think VD has established himself as a bit more than an athletic flavor of the week. Witten was 1, Davis 3 in 2010

Witten was 9, Davis 2 in 2009

 

[Football Critic]

I'm down on Witten this year due to increased competition for targets and what I expect to be an improved Dalas Defense under new HC Garret. Witten is going way too early in drafts.

80 receptions

880 yards

5 TDs

Do yourself a favor pass on Witten this year and draft Kellen Winslow several rounds later to get the exact same production, if not better.

Those numbers you're projecting (which are fine ultimately) represent a significant regression for Witten, and a marked improvement for Winslow. Again, I'm not suggesting you'll be proven wrong, but you came across as though Winslow is consistently on par with Witten when, in fact, he's not. Witten has been the 1st or 2nd best fantasy TE in three of the last four seasons yet ROUTINELY goes behind the likes of Dallas Clark, Antonio Gates and the athletic flavor of the week (Jermichael Finley and Vernon Davis being recent examples).

I think VD has established himself as a bit more than an athletic flavor of the week. Witten was 1, Davis 3 in 2010

Witten was 9, Davis 2 in 2009

In what scoring system?

 

[geoff8695]

Has there every been a team in history that had 2 1k WRs and a 1k TE? I know it never happened with Clark, Wayne, Harrison. Never happened with Shannon Sharpe, Rod Smith & McCaffery (though they did have a season where both WRs had 1k and Sharpe had 10 TDs with 700+ yds I believe). I can't think of one instance of it ever occurring. Odds that all three of Miles Austin, Dez Bryant and Jason Witten meet expectations seems incredibly slim.

Once.1980 Jefferson 82/1340/13, Joiner 71/1132/4, Winslow 89/1290/9

Witten is right there with Winslow, Gonzo, and Gates as the clear-cut best pass catching TEs in NFL history, and only Winslow found himself in an offense with a terrific QB and two WRs as talented as Austin and Bryant(Jefferson/Joiner).IMO the Cowboys pass offense is a very unique situation, and 2011 is as good a bet for lightning to strike twice as we may ever see...

 

[Ministry of Pain]

He's been a turd as of late but his last 4 games at home vs Philly look something like this in PPR leagues...2007, 2008, 2009, and 2010...18, 19, 19, 20...he should be money this weekend. I have him and Aaron Hernandez, been rolling Hernandez the past 2-3 weeks but going to swing back towards Witten this week.