Jason Witten (1 Viewer)

[hunter1]

I'm sure this has been discussed here somewhere already, but what's up w/ Witten? Will he be asked to stay in and block? Last year, he was going in the 2nd round. This year, most experts have him as the 5th - 7th TE, behind the likes of Jermichael Finley. What gives? Anyone? Thanks.

 

[Sup_Yo]

Dez.

 

[Garts]

Dez.

might actually help Witten too...no?maybe a few less targets..maybe more tds

 

[thecardiackid]

My guess is that he only found the endzone about 2 or 3 times last season.

 

[vandyt]

I'm sure this has been discussed here somewhere already, but what's up w/ Witten? Will he be asked to stay in and block? Last year, he was going in the 2nd round. This year, most experts have him as the 5th - 7th TE, behind the likes of Jermichael Finley. What gives? Anyone? Thanks.

Say what?

 

[humpback]

I'm sure this has been discussed here somewhere already, but what's up w/ Witten? Will he be asked to stay in and block? Last year, he was going in the 2nd round. This year, most experts have him as the 5th - 7th TE, behind the likes of Jermichael Finley. What gives? Anyone? Thanks.

I don't necessarily agree with it, but it's mostly because he had 2 TDs last year, and Dallas drafted Dez so there will be less catches to go around. I still have him around #4, but I had him higher last year and it didn't work out that way. He should be top 10 for sure, but he could fall anywhere within that range IMO. He was tied for 8th in most non-PPR leagues, having him ranked #5-#7 doesn't seem far fetched.

 

[road warrior]

I'm seeing a few less targets but a few more TD's. Should balance out. That said, of the 2 TD's he did score last year, IIRC, 1 was in week 17 vs. Philly when most leagues were finished.

 

[Garts]

I'm seeing a few less targets but a few more TD's. Should balance out. That said, of the 2 TD's he did score last year, IIRC, 1 was in week 17 vs. Philly when most leagues were finished.

Witten had a monster game in week 16 I believe..no td's but a lot of yards and catches if I recall.

 

[Bankerguy]

As a Cowboys fan who watches every play and has an affinty for Witten, I can honestly say that he looked like he lost a step last year. I am not sure if he was injured and it was kept quiet, but to me he looked slower and heavier. The low TD's didn't bother as much as TD's are always hard to predict.

The Cowboys are an interesting team this off-season as far as the offense goes. The only true upgrade at this point is Romo who I am very high on for the coming Fantasy Football season. For Witten, I do think conservative projections are the way to go:

Rec- 84

Yards- 920

TD's- 5

 

[road warrior]

I'm seeing a few less targets but a few more TD's. Should balance out. That said, of the 2 TD's he did score last year, IIRC, 1 was in week 17 vs. Philly when most leagues were finished.

Witten had a monster game in week 16 I believe..no td's but a lot of yards and catches if I recall.

Yeah, and he had another great game vs. the Raiders on Thanksgiving.... but once agian, no TD's. I can easily see him targeted more in the red-zone this year with the organization phasing out Roy.

 

[Michael Fox Fan]

quote name='road warrior' post='11832361' date='May 13 2010, 10:38 AM']I'm seeing a few less targets but a few more TD's. Should balance out. That said, of the 2 TD's he did score last year, IIRC, 1 was in week 17 vs. Philly when most leagues were finished.

TDs are quite volatile from game-to-game, so I'm not sure why you are putting so much emphasis on one of Witten's TDs coming in week 17.

 

[glumpy]

I'm seeing a few less targets but a few more TD's. Should balance out. That said, of the 2 TD's he did score last year, IIRC, 1 was in week 17 vs. Philly when most leagues were finished.

TDs are quite volatile from game-to-game, so I'm not sure why you are putting so much emphasis on one of Witten's TDs coming in week 17.

I think the point was that more people might not take that 2nd TD into account for their rankings since it was after their fantasy seasons. I know when I'm evaluating previous years productions I frequently discount week 17 as well--because many teams are sitting starters in preparation for upcoming playoffs. Haven't looked to see if that game qualifies.

 

[David Yudkin]

He ranked 8th last year, so there clearly were several guys that did better than he did. Not saying I agree, but there are other options these days . . .

 

[karmarooster]

Witten isn't going to be a big TD guy because he never has been and never will be. He's still a dead lock for 70-95 catches and 800-1100 yards, but his career high in TDs 7. 27 TDs for his career on over 500 catches. He is what he is. Adding Dez isn't going to give him more TDs. The one thing it may do is increase his YPC a bit.

IMO he only holds elite value in PPR leagues, where he's very consistent - had at least 4 catches every week. But he doesn't have the upside of someone like Clark, Finley, or Gates who can go for multiple TDs most any week. Witten is going to get you 8-16 points or so in PPR almost every week, but he won't win the week for you. Those 7-10 point games really stink when you consider what you have to spend to get him.

I'll pass and be looking for Winslow or Zach Miller later.

 

[JetMaxx]

I'm seriously thinking of keeping of Celek instead of him.

 

[Birdie048]

I am surprised nobody mentioned that Martellus Bennett has looked very good (again). Jerry Jones was boasting that Bennett and his off season work. Maybe this has some small part in his dropped value to go with Dez's arrival. With Roy boasting this will be his year, maybe they are just lowering Witten's overall targets as a result.

http://www.star-telegram.com/2010/05/12/21...to-concede.html

Note: I am a Bennett owner and see him as worth holding. I don't know what Witten's contract situation is, but maybe Bennett could emerge in 2011.

 

[Ridgelake]

Lots of good points in this thread.

Witten's value is consistency in PPR. He won't score many TDs. He did look slow last year as Bankerguy indicated. Hope this is more injury related than age-related.

Lets be clear though. He is Romo's favorite target. Security blanket. And while Bennett and Phillips are improved, Witten is under no threat to these guys yet.

Fantasy Footballers may not appreciate the depth of his game. He had the best blocking metrics of any TE in the NFL last year. He was a monster in the run game. What this is saying is that he's not going to be sitting unless its a bad injury.

 

[Holy Schneikes]

As a Cowboys fan who watches every play and has an affinty for Witten, I can honestly say that he looked like he lost a step last year. I am not sure if he was injured and it was kept quiet, but to me he looked slower and heavier. The low TD's didn't bother as much as TD's are always hard to predict.

The Cowboys are an interesting team this off-season as far as the offense goes. The only true upgrade at this point is Romo who I am very high on for the coming Fantasy Football season. For Witten, I do think conservative projections are the way to go:

Rec- 84

Yards- 920

TD's- 5

That isn't really a conservative projection for Witten. The stats you project would be above his career averages in each category even if you ignore his rookie season. His value now is about right, and he was WAY over-valued last year after his one excellent season. It's all about the short memory.There was a thread last year entitled "Any chance Gates outperforms Witten this year?". I just laughed at the phrasing because there was every PROBABILITY that would happen vs some slim chance the topic name made it out to be (though to be fair the OP did prefer Gates).

He's solid, and I wouldn't mind having him in the right scenario, but I don't think he's really undervalued right now.

 

[gianmarco]

"Lost a step", huh? Martellus Bennett, huh?

2009 -- 94 receptions (2 away from career high) and 1030 yards (2nd highest career total). I couldn't care less if my TE "lost a step" if he's catching almost 100 balls and getting over 1000 yds. Only Gates and D. Clark had over 1000 yds. Only Dallas Clark had over 94 receptions.

The ONLY reason Witten had a "down" year was his 2 TDs. That's an anomaly even though he's never been a huge TD total guy anyway. He's still only 28. Witten will be fine.

 

[David Yudkin]

The real development is not so much that Witten is any worse than in the past, but that there are now several decent TE options fantasy wise. So that should serve to devalue Witten, as there are now a pack of high scoring fantasy tight ends to choose from. That being the case, Witten should see his ADP going down as the value add in taking him early appears to have disipated. A lot will depend on whether people see the other guys repeating their lofty numbers from last year and if Witten's consistency is worth paying more to obtain him.

 

[karmarooster]

The ONLY reason Witten had a "down" year was his 2 TDs. That's an anomaly even though he's never been a huge TD total guy anyway. He's still only 28. Witten will be fine.

An anomaly? Sure, slightly. Through 7 season's he's averaged 3.8 TDs per year. 523 career catches/27 TDs = 19.4 catches/TD. Nothing elite about that. Even if Witten catches 100, he's still only looking at 5ish TDs for the season.In contrast, for example, Visanthe Shiancoe has 18 TDs in the past two years 98 catches. 5.4 catches/TD. I'm not advocating Shiancoe... just for comparison's sake.as I stated above, you can get TEs who will see lots of targets, receptions, and yards with few TDs much later. Two examples i offered are Winslow and Zach Miller, who both should have about 70 catches and 900 yards to go with mediocre (4-8) TD totals. Current ADPs from fantasyfootballcalculator.com:Witten - #59Winslow - #98Shiancoe - #104Miller - #142"He'll be fine," sure, but I just don't see the value in Witten. Someone brought up Bennett, and while he's not a major factor, he's one of many.... Dez, Austin in year 2 as a starter, Roy, the 3-headed RB monster... unless you can be certain Witten will have another 98/1150 season (which he won't), then he's just not worth it. Projections: Witten - 85/950/5 = 210 fantasy points = 13.1 ppgWinslow/Miller - 75/850/4 = 184 fp = 11.5 ppg

 

[Bankerguy]

As a Cowboys fan who watches every play and has an affinty for Witten, I can honestly say that he looked like he lost a step last year. I am not sure if he was injured and it was kept quiet, but to me he looked slower and heavier. The low TD's didn't bother as much as TD's are always hard to predict.

The Cowboys are an interesting team this off-season as far as the offense goes. The only true upgrade at this point is Romo who I am very high on for the coming Fantasy Football season. For Witten, I do think conservative projections are the way to go:

Rec- 84

Yards- 920

TD's- 5

That isn't really a conservative projection for Witten. The stats you project would be above his career averages in each category even if you ignore his rookie season. His value now is about right, and he was WAY over-valued last year after his one excellent season. It's all about the short memory.There was a thread last year entitled "Any chance Gates outperforms Witten this year?". I just laughed at the phrasing because there was every PROBABILITY that would happen vs some slim chance the topic name made it out to be (though to be fair the OP did prefer Gates).

He's solid, and I wouldn't mind having him in the right scenario, but I don't think he's really undervalued right now.

Well I believe that the Dallas offense will be pretty formidable. It's just hard to project where the yards and TD's will go. Therefore, I don't believe my projection at just above career average is anything but conservative. . He could also be a monster and the hands down #1 TE next year.

 

[Holy Schneikes]

As a Cowboys fan who watches every play and has an affinty for Witten, I can honestly say that he looked like he lost a step last year. I am not sure if he was injured and it was kept quiet, but to me he looked slower and heavier. The low TD's didn't bother as much as TD's are always hard to predict.

The Cowboys are an interesting team this off-season as far as the offense goes. The only true upgrade at this point is Romo who I am very high on for the coming Fantasy Football season. For Witten, I do think conservative projections are the way to go:

Rec- 84

Yards- 920

TD's- 5

That isn't really a conservative projection for Witten. The stats you project would be above his career averages in each category even if you ignore his rookie season. His value now is about right, and he was WAY over-valued last year after his one excellent season. It's all about the short memory.There was a thread last year entitled "Any chance Gates outperforms Witten this year?". I just laughed at the phrasing because there was every PROBABILITY that would happen vs some slim chance the topic name made it out to be (though to be fair the OP did prefer Gates).

He's solid, and I wouldn't mind having him in the right scenario, but I don't think he's really undervalued right now.

Well I believe that the Dallas offense will be pretty formidable. It's just hard to project where the yards and TD's will go. Therefore, I don't believe my projection at just above career average is anything but conservative. . He could also be a monster and the hands down #1 TE next year.

So could 5 other guys (give or take), and the Dallas O was formidable last year. I don't think your numbers are crazy (your guess is as good as mine), I just don't think they are conservative. Anything OVER career averages AND over the previous year's numbers, when the only significant change in situation (Dez) could be viewed as a negative as easily as a positive, can't realistically be called conservative IMO. Just semantics though really, my projection wouldn't be THAT far off from yours. I could just also easily see a reasonable projection being much lower as well.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

I think he was highly overvalued last year and there are just a lot of good te options nowadays, so you'd really better be getting an elite one if you draft high.

 

[Chase Stuart]

I do think he's on pace to be a Hall of Famer; it's easy to forget how good Witten really is.

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=2958

The TDs haven't always come, but I still think that's probably a product of bad luck and having some TD vultures in guys like Owens, Barber, Williams. It wouldn't shock me at all if Witten had a 10-TD season one of these years.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

I do think he's on pace to be a Hall of Famer; it's easy to forget how good Witten really is.

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=2958

The TDs haven't always come, but I still think that's probably a product of bad luck and having some TD vultures in guys like Owens, Barber, Williams. It wouldn't shock me at all if Witten had a 10-TD season one of these years.

would you draft him a round or two higher than which of these guys?:VD

clark

gates

celek

gonzalez

finley

daniels

and you could maybe even throw in winslow, miller, or whoever

he might be hall of fame good, but he's probably a bottom half starter in typical leagues, and if he nabs 10 td's it'll be very good luck, rather than 4 being the converse.

 

[Bob Henry]

Having just completed my projections (should be posted soon), here are my thoughts on Witten:

Dez Bryant

Lack of consistent red zone presence (re: Bryant, Barber, Austin as other solid options)

Improved strength of position, utilization of TEs across the league

The first two don't hurt Witten's numbers as much as they explain why he hasn't always been a consistent TD scorer and might not be in 2010.

The third is really the key thing that affects not just Witten, but other TEs that once were in the elite TE range (Gates, Gonzo, Clark, Witten). The number of pass catching TEs that produce WR-like numbers continues to grow. Last year, Vernon Davis and Jermichael Finley joined that group. One might argue that Owen Daniels would be (or is part of that group) in the mix if not for his injury.

Winslow, Gonz, Witten, Daniel, Celek and others all have solid value, but compared to their peers, the delta has flatten quite a bit. No longer is there a huge disparity between the top 2 or 3 TEs and TE10, TE11, TE12, etc.

In the past couple of years, players like Gates that might have went in the 2nd/3rd round because they were so much better than their peers, now can easily slide into the 4th/5th/6th rounds.. or, even if they don't, comparable players will so why take one early when you get a similar player later and use that higher pick for an elite WR, QB or additional backs.

Witten hasn't regressed as a player. Other tight ends are getting better.

 

[Sputnikv8]

Looked slow last year? He always looks slow. He's a big lumbering, pass-catching machine though. When watching him in a game I always laugh at the first reception because I forget just how slow he always looks. He produces though, no denying that.

 

[Bankerguy]

Looked slow last year? He always looks slow. He's a big lumbering, pass-catching machine though. When watching him in a game I always laugh at the first reception because I forget just how slow he always looks. He produces though, no denying that.

Most Cowboy fans who watch religously (like I do) tend to agree that he appeared to have lost a step (yes despite never being THAT fast to begin with) or was hiding an injury. Thanks to Ridgelake for backing me up on this one.

 

[Phurfur]

Dez.

might actually help Witten too...no? maybe a few less targets..maybe more tds

He had 2 last year.

 

[Novice2]

Cause that top 5 WR Austin and Randy Moss 2 DeZ will catch 90% of Romos balls.

 

[Mikey16x]

I'm actually giving him a bump for this season. I'm not sure how they are going to use Bryant his rookie season.. I think they are going to cut R. Williams after he produces another dud season. But Romo loves him some Witten and I expect Witten to be 2nd in targets this season behind Austin and Bryant after him. If I can make a bold Witten prediction this season- 75 catches/850 yards/8 TD's... which would still put him in the top 5 TE range.

 

[David Yudkin]

I'm actually giving him a bump for this season. I'm not sure how they are going to use Bryant his rookie season.. I think they are going to cut R. Williams after he produces another dud season. But Romo loves him some Witten and I expect Witten to be 2nd in targets this season behind Austin and Bryant after him. If I can make a bold Witten prediction this season- 75 catches/850 yards/8 TD's... which would still put him in the top 5 TE range.

You are predicting a career high for TD and a drop off of nearly 20 receptions and 200 yards compared to last year. That's great if he can get that many TD, but the other numbers alone would make me think twice about wanting to take him where he will likely get drafted.