Jeremy Maclin's Value (1 Viewer)

[LTDynasty]

So I'm wondering: if DeSean Jackson is no longer an Eagle next season, how does this affect the prospects of Jeremy Maclin in the short term (2012) and the long term? Can Maclin be a WR1 in the Eagles offense? (and is he already their WR1?)

And there are many interrelated questions. Surely, the team adds a replacement, through free agency and/or the draft, but perhaps they go with Maclin, Cooper, and Avant for a year? And obviously, much of his value is tied to the success of Vick and McCoy, so implicit in this is how would the loss of Jackson affect the Eagles offense and Maclin's production more specifically?

Thoughts?

 

[Gandalf]

I think Maclin can be an legit #1 for Philly. If Desean leaves, I'd expect his targets to increase. I'd also expect defenses to pay more attention to him so not sure how he will respond to that. Overall, I think he is progressing as a player and think he can handle being a #1 and I think he numbers will increase especially because red zone targets likely will rise without Desean there. That should translate into more fantasy points. That said, it would be nice for them to bring in another free agent as a #2 to take some of the pressure off of him.

 

[Shane Falco]

Maclin already is the #1. DJax leaving and not being replaced with a down-field threat could hurt Maclin and cause him to see more double teams. Otherwise Cooper will move into the #2 and Avant will stay as #3/slot guy. They still spread the ball around a lot so its doubtful anyone gets much over 80 receptions that offense.

But Maclin is a #1 IMO

 

[fruity pebbles]

if you look deeper into the numbers last year, Maclin had a largely #1 WR type year. First game he was limited, got hurt midway through the season and played sparingly in two games in addition to the three games he missed. He basically put up over 800 yards and 5 TDs in 10 games.

 

[Bigboy10182000]

if you look deeper into the numbers last year, Maclin had a largely #1 WR type year. First game he was limited, got hurt midway through the season and played sparingly in two games in addition to the three games he missed. He basically put up over 800 yards and 5 TDs in 10 games.

And don't forget he missed almost everything due to an illness in the off-season.

 

[comfortably numb]

if you look deeper into the numbers last year, Maclin had a largely #1 WR type year. First game he was limited, got hurt midway through the season and played sparingly in two games in addition to the three games he missed. He basically put up over 800 yards and 5 TDs in 10 games.

And don't forget he missed almost everything due to an illness in the off-season.

Good point, I almost forgot about the AIDS

 

[ConnSKINS26]

if you look deeper into the numbers last year, Maclin had a largely #1 WR type year. First game he was limited, got hurt midway through the season and played sparingly in two games in addition to the three games he missed. He basically put up over 800 yards and 5 TDs in 10 games.

And don't forget he missed almost everything due to an illness in the off-season.

Which made him come in 20+ lbs under weight.

 

[_lurker_]

I think a more valuable question is... who takes the #2 role in PHI? Avant is a very good role player, but can he do it? Steve Smith, is he healthy and will he be there? Riley Cooper looks like a good prospect. Is Jeremy Williams still on the practice squad cuz I thought he was a good prospect too. Does PHI go FA or draft?

 

[hostile]

Any of you guys thinking that Cooper is #2 or moves into the starting lineup in any way didnt watch the guy play this year. He was exposed for what he is - not very good, doesnt fight for the ball, and should be a career #4 /5/special teamer. He was terrible.

Avant will most likely remain the slot guy.

Rumors are Plax wants to come to Philly, which could work as a RZ specialist, but the guy is over-the-hill b/t the 20's.

Look for Philly to draft/sign someone if DJax leaves (which is not necessarily a foregone conclusion).

 

[Kenny Powers]

I think Maclin is a better FF value if DJax stays instead of leaves next year

 

[Sabertooth]

I don't think Desean's 50 catches per season have that much impact at all on Maclin.

 

[CentralPA]

DeSean was supposedly franchised so unless the Eagles trade I think Maclin's production hopefully stays on par if not increase next year. DeSean's spead makes corners play deep so iun a PPR league Maclin will get most of the underneath stuff. Other than Celek and McCoy he is also the Eagles red zone target as well.

 

[finito]

I don't think Desean's 50 catches per season have that much impact at all on Maclin.

I think his presence helps open up the field -- they have to game plan DJax's speed game which opens up the middle to a certain extent for Maclin. So I think Maclin benefits from DJax staying.

 

[_lurker_]

I don't think Desean's 50 catches per season have that much impact at all on Maclin.

50 catches doesn't sound like too much, but he gets 100 targets.

DeSean was supposedly franchised...

Officially franchise tagging a player can't happen for another week.

 

[Shane Falco]

I don't think Desean's 50 catches per season have that much impact at all on Maclin.

50 catches doesn't sound like too much, but he gets 100 targets.

DeSean was supposedly franchised...

Officially franchise tagging a player can't happen for another week.

the report is out there that they will franchise him. Week early or not...

 

[_lurker_]

I don't think Desean's 50 catches per season have that much impact at all on Maclin.

50 catches doesn't sound like too much, but he gets 100 targets.

DeSean was supposedly franchised...

Officially franchise tagging a player can't happen for another week.

the report is out there that they will franchise him. Week early or not...

Right, I forgot, reports are never wrong. Thanks for that. I'm just sayin', tagging can't be done and I believe the window to do so is Feb. 20 - Mar. 5. If it isn't done officially, then things can change, right?

 

[Shane Falco]

I don't think Desean's 50 catches per season have that much impact at all on Maclin.

50 catches doesn't sound like too much, but he gets 100 targets.

DeSean was supposedly franchised...

Officially franchise tagging a player can't happen for another week.

the report is out there that they will franchise him. Week early or not...

Right, I forgot, reports are never wrong. Thanks for that. I'm just sayin', tagging can't be done and I believe the window to do so is Feb. 20 - Mar. 5. If it isn't done officially, then things can change, right?

SureI don't feel like getting into a pi$$ing match about what the Eagles organization does and how they operate.So you are right :backpat:

 

[Sabertooth]

I don't think Desean's 50 catches per season have that much impact at all on Maclin.

50 catches doesn't sound like too much, but he gets 100 targets.

DeSean was supposedly franchised...

Officially franchise tagging a player can't happen for another week.

I know, but it isn't like this is ever going to be a Roddy White situation here where one guy hogs almost every single target. Meaning if Desean left, Maclin still wouldn't see a jump of say 50 in targets for a season.

 

[Concept Coop]

I don't think Desean's 50 catches per season have that much impact at all on Maclin.

Not the case at all - it makes a huge impact.When Jackson goes deep, two defenders go deep with him, more often than not. Maclin owners should be hoping that Jackson is back with the Eagles.

 

[Sabertooth]

I don't think Desean's 50 catches per season have that much impact at all on Maclin.

Not the case at all - it makes a huge impact.When Jackson goes deep, two defenders go deep with him, more often than not.

Maclin owners should be hoping that Jackson is back with the Eagles.

Sounds like a very broad based assumption. I was going to go back and watch some film on Desean to see if what you say is true but game rewind doesn't seem to be working right now. I can only access the playoffs and Super Bowl.

 

[CentralPA]

The two deep coverage may or may not have an impact with Maclin. Hard to tell. I think he has the talent to be a pretty good receiver even if they play him tight. He's a very good route runner has great hands (except for the atlanta game, grrrrrr)

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

I don't think Desean's 50 catches per season have that much impact at all on Maclin.

Not the case at all - it makes a huge impact.When Jackson goes deep, two defenders go deep with him, more often than not. Maclin owners should be hoping that Jackson is back with the Eagles.

None of this matters if Vick is getting hit/pressured constantly.

 

[Concept Coop]

The two deep coverage may or may not have an impact with Maclin. Hard to tell. I think he has the talent to be a pretty good receiver even if they play him tight. He's a very good route runner has great hands (except for the atlanta game, grrrrrr)

Pretty good, no doubt. And having Vick and McCoy, who defenses have to account for is big for him as well. But, the less double coverage a player sees, the better. Jackson is the guy that give defensive coordinators nightmares. I am not suggesting he is a better fantasy option - he's not. But, he has no doubt helped Maclin produce. And Maclin is good enough to be productive while seeing double teams. But it will hurt him. For one, he is not a guy that a QB is going to feel comfortable "throwing it up" for. There are players good enough to be the main focus of a defense and still dominate, but they are the elite. I don't think Maclin is that.

 

[Bri]

what kind of WR is Steve Smith? He's recovered by then, right?

Is he done or like the ol NYG WR?

Maclin's life was easy enough opposite Desean, it's fairly important to establish if there's another threat opposite him

 

[Kenny Powers]

I don't think Desean's 50 catches per season have that much impact at all on Maclin.

50 catches doesn't sound like too much, but he gets 100 targets.

DeSean was supposedly franchised...

Officially franchise tagging a player can't happen for another week.

I know, but it isn't like this is ever going to be a Roddy White situation here where one guy hogs almost every single target. Meaning if Desean left, Maclin still wouldn't see a jump of say 50 in targets for a season.

Not so sure about that. An increase of 50 would be about 3.1 more targets per game, which is likely high, but 2 sounds about right, which would be an increase of 32 targets (and surprisingly make him the 6th most targetted player if he played 16 games last year). He missed 3 games and played sparingly in another 3 which someone said earlier here, so lets just say he missed 4 games instead of 6 which is a little high. Assuming 12 games for Maclin last year, his targets increased from 7 in 2010 to 8 in 2011.

His catch rate was 61.9% in 2010, 65.6% in 2011. Lets take the average and use 63.8% despite it significantly increasing last year.

Using the 32 targets as a guideline with 63.8%, youre looking at 20 more catches.

He averaged 13.8 Y/R in 2010, 13.6 in 2011, so at 13.7 with 20 more catches thats 274 more yards (and probably 2-3 TDs).

Put that 274 on top of projectings his 2011 numbers (859 in 12 games) for 16 games, and youre looking at 1419yds and 7-8 TDs (he had 10 TDs in 2010 so I dont think the TD increase would be unreasonable).

...Now, if DJax were to go he would get more attention undoubtedly and it would be difficult to project how much that would affect his numbers, but going by 1419/7 he wouldve been WR7 this year. Even I would say that is high and dont expect to see that (Id guess more like 1200/7-9), but Maclin is a guy that I think will be a huge value next year regardless of whether DJax goes or stays. I think he will be much more under the radar if DJax stays.

 

[Concept Coop]

Not so sure about that. An increase of 50 would be about 3.1 more targets per game, which is likely high, but 2 sounds about right, which would be an increase of 32 targets (and surprisingly make him the 6th most targetted player if he played 16 games last year). He missed 3 games and played sparingly in another 3 which someone said earlier here, so lets just say he missed 4 games instead of 6 which is a little high.

That makes no sense. A starting WR leaves and the majority of his targets go to a guy already starting? Also, D-Jax is a deep threat. His target percentage is small for a starting WR as a lot of his routes are deep. Replacing that with a more traditional WR and that new WR could get more targets than D-Jax did. This is gross hope. Also, you are completely ingorning the coverage/route aspect. If DeSean leaves, Maclin is the deep guy - his catch % takes a big hit. If he sees more double coverage, same thing, as well as a decrease in targets.Only the elite of the elite can have that catch % on so many targets, while getting primary coverage attention. Unless you think Maclin is Larry level, those projections are way off.

 

[Concept Coop]

I don't think Desean's 50 catches per season have that much impact at all on Maclin.

Not the case at all - it makes a huge impact.When Jackson goes deep, two defenders go deep with him, more often than not. Maclin owners should be hoping that Jackson is back with the Eagles.

None of this matters if Vick is getting hit/pressured constantly.

Sure it matters.

 

[Kenny Powers]

Not so sure about that. An increase of 50 would be about 3.1 more targets per game, which is likely high, but 2 sounds about right, which would be an increase of 32 targets (and surprisingly make him the 6th most targetted player if he played 16 games last year). He missed 3 games and played sparingly in another 3 which someone said earlier here, so lets just say he missed 4 games instead of 6 which is a little high.

That makes no sense. A starting WR leaves and the majority of his targets go to a guy already starting? Also, D-Jax is a deep threat. His target percentage is small for a starting WR as a lot of his routes are deep. Replacing that with a more traditional WR and that new WR could get more targets than D-Jax did. This is gross hope. Also, you are completely ingorning the coverage/route aspect. If DeSean leaves, Maclin is the deep guy - his catch % takes a big hit. If he sees more double coverage, same thing, as well as a decrease in targets.Only the elite of the elite can have that catch % on so many targets, while getting primary coverage attention. Unless you think Maclin is Larry level, those projections are way off.

DJax was the most targetted Eagle last year. My belief that Maclin sees an uptick in targets next year is because if DJax is gone, Maclin is hands down their best receiver and best playmaker besides Shady. If they had a legit WR to take DJax's place, than Maclin's upside may be more limited, but they dont. Riley Cooper wont be stealing targets by the handful from Maclin.I didnt completely ignore the route aspect or the change if DJax leaves. In fact I said those numbers are likely too high and wouldnt count on them myself, but its just something to consider. His catch % this past year wasnt crazy, and expecting him to catch 64% next year is pretty much standard for any top 40-50 WR.Not to mention Vick was banged up this past year and missed 3-4 games, so no reason why that wont help Maclin if both are healthy in the offseason and play an entire season.

 

[Concept Coop]

Not so sure about that. An increase of 50 would be about 3.1 more targets per game, which is likely high, but 2 sounds about right, which would be an increase of 32 targets (and surprisingly make him the 6th most targetted player if he played 16 games last year). He missed 3 games and played sparingly in another 3 which someone said earlier here, so lets just say he missed 4 games instead of 6 which is a little high.

That makes no sense. A starting WR leaves and the majority of his targets go to a guy already starting? Also, D-Jax is a deep threat. His target percentage is small for a starting WR as a lot of his routes are deep. Replacing that with a more traditional WR and that new WR could get more targets than D-Jax did. This is gross hope.

Also, you are completely ingorning the coverage/route aspect. If DeSean leaves, Maclin is the deep guy - his catch % takes a big hit. If he sees more double coverage, same thing, as well as a decrease in targets.

Only the elite of the elite can have that catch % on so many targets, while getting primary coverage attention. Unless you think Maclin is Larry level, those projections are way off.

DJax was the most targetted Eagle last year. My belief that Maclin sees an uptick in targets next year is because if DJax is gone, Maclin is hands down their best receiver and best playmaker besides Shady. If they had a legit WR to take DJax's place, than Maclin's upside may be more limited, but they dont. Riley Cooper wont be stealing targets by the handful from Maclin.I didnt completely ignore the route aspect or the change if DJax leaves. In fact I said those numbers are likely too high and wouldnt count on them myself, but its just something to consider. His catch % this past year wasnt crazy, and expecting him to catch 64% next year is pretty much standard for any top 40-50 WR.

Not to mention Vick was banged up this past year and missed 3-4 games, so no reason why that wont help Maclin if both are healthy in the offseason and play an entire season.

Maclin was injured, of course D-Jax got more targets.65% is not standard. Larry Fitzgerald's % was 52%. Calvin Johnson's was 62%. 65% would put Maclin top 6 in the NFL for starting #1 and #2 WRs (two of which played with Aaron Rodgers). It was crazy. Why? Not because he is better than Larry Fitzgerald, Roddy White, Andre Johnson, AJ Green...no...because he had the easiest time. Why? He didn't get the coverage. Why? He didn't demand it, largely because Jackson did.

Riley Cooper will not start for an NFL team on opening day, period. Most likely ever. Nor should he.

In order for Maclin to get the numbers you suggest, with no help on the other side, he has to beat double coverage the way guys like Brandon Marshall and Larry Fitzgerald do. That won't happen.

 

[Kenny Powers]

Not so sure about that. An increase of 50 would be about 3.1 more targets per game, which is likely high, but 2 sounds about right, which would be an increase of 32 targets (and surprisingly make him the 6th most targetted player if he played 16 games last year). He missed 3 games and played sparingly in another 3 which someone said earlier here, so lets just say he missed 4 games instead of 6 which is a little high.

That makes no sense. A starting WR leaves and the majority of his targets go to a guy already starting? Also, D-Jax is a deep threat. His target percentage is small for a starting WR as a lot of his routes are deep. Replacing that with a more traditional WR and that new WR could get more targets than D-Jax did. This is gross hope.

Also, you are completely ingorning the coverage/route aspect. If DeSean leaves, Maclin is the deep guy - his catch % takes a big hit. If he sees more double coverage, same thing, as well as a decrease in targets.

Only the elite of the elite can have that catch % on so many targets, while getting primary coverage attention. Unless you think Maclin is Larry level, those projections are way off.

DJax was the most targetted Eagle last year. My belief that Maclin sees an uptick in targets next year is because if DJax is gone, Maclin is hands down their best receiver and best playmaker besides Shady. If they had a legit WR to take DJax's place, than Maclin's upside may be more limited, but they dont. Riley Cooper wont be stealing targets by the handful from Maclin.I didnt completely ignore the route aspect or the change if DJax leaves. In fact I said those numbers are likely too high and wouldnt count on them myself, but its just something to consider. His catch % this past year wasnt crazy, and expecting him to catch 64% next year is pretty much standard for any top 40-50 WR.

Not to mention Vick was banged up this past year and missed 3-4 games, so no reason why that wont help Maclin if both are healthy in the offseason and play an entire season.

Maclin was injured, of course D-Jax got more targets.65% is not standard. Larry Fitzgerald's % was 52%. Calvin Johnson's was 62%. 65% would put Maclin top 6 in the NFL for starting #1 and #2 WRs (two of which played with Aaron Rodgers). It was crazy. Why? Not because he is better than Larry Fitzgerald, Roddy White, Andre Johnson, AJ Green...no...because he had the easiest time. Why? He didn't get the coverage. Why? He didn't demand it, largely because Jackson did.

Riley Cooper will not start for an NFL team on opening day, period. Most likely ever. Nor should he.

In order for Maclin to get the numbers you suggest, with no help on the other side, he has to beat double coverage the way guys like Brandon Marshall and Larry Fitzgerald do. That won't happen.

I cant find good stats on catch %, but I thought 60% was the benchmark. Of course, this stat is less useful than others because some targets arent even catchable. I dont understand the thought that Maclin will become Phillys deep guy if DJax leaves. I think he's just Philly's #1 WR period, and he'll run the deep routes when they want to.I dont think Maclin is a top 10 WR talent in the NFL (which Fitz and Marshall are), but I think he can produce borderline WR1 numbers in Philly's offense whether DJax stays or not. He's only 23 and is coming off likely as weird an offseason as anyone in the NHL with his illness.