Jerry Rice - Compared to today's wide receivers (1 Viewer)

[BaBastage]

For those of you needing a brief detour from draft prep, I've been tracking several current players over the years to see how they stack up against the OAAWRR (Owner-of-Almost-All-Wide-Receiver-Records ) at the same number of years played.

Comparing Terrell Owens, Marvin Harrison, Torry Holt, and Randy Moss's stats vs Jerry's at the same number of years played yields some interesting stuff. As a picture is worth 1000 words, refer to the following graphs:

Touchdowns Receptions Yards

In summary, for those of you not wanting to follow the links:

1. Jerry holds the lead pace for TD's. Randy Moss was running almost neck and neck until 2 years ago when he tapered off with Oakland. Harrison and Owens can catch the pace if they put up 12 td's per year for about the next 5-6 years.

2. Moss, Holt, Harrison all a HIGHER reception pace than Jerry did at the respective stages of their careers. Owens is behind, having slowed down the past couple of years.

3. Rice, Moss, and Holt are clustered for Yards, with Owens. Harrison was in there, but tapered off the last couple of years. Still, he's on pace to catch Jerry and pass him again if he keeps it up for another couple of years.

I have a ton of respect for Jerry, but I think if his records are to hold, it will be a feat of endurance in addition to talent.

I'm not making a case for or against Jerry's status of best/not best.. I'm of the belief that it's difficult to compare players outside of the era that they immediately played in.

... and now back to your regularly scheduled programming....

 

[Dt's Mules]

i thought it was common knowledge that he was a product of the system and not a hall of famer

but seriously, very interesting stuff

 

[cobalt_27]

No one will catch Jerry, unless they expand the season. It simply won't happen in any of those categories.

 

[Chase Stuart]

No one will catch Jerry, unless they expand the season. It simply won't happen in any of those categories.

I think Holt has a chance to catch Jerry in receptions. Not a great one, but a chance. He's almost 100 receptions ahead of Rice through age 30. He needs 335 receptions over the next five years to stay even with Rice (because Rice missed almost a full year at age 35) -- that seems like a lock to me. In fact, he should have a nice edge at age 35. It gets rough from there, because he won't match what Rice did later in his career....but it's not impossible for him to build up a 75-catch cushion over the next five years.

 

[cobalt_27]

Like i said, it simply...won't...happen.

Props to the guys who are close, though.

 

[TME]

In Jerry's defense, as if he needs any, the game has changed. A 100 reception season used to be a rarity, now a couple guys do it year in and year out. The offensive game has changed to where a short passing attack can control a game and the clock similar to how a strong running game used to. Yes, some of Jerry's teams were the genisus of that offensive system, but it has gone even farther since his time. So, I would not be surprised if reception totals and yards fall at some time to say a Marvin Harrison, but it will still take a long career to do it.

 

[SSOG]

Like i said, it simply...won't...happen.Props to the guys who are close, though.

Eras change. I'm sure it once would have seemed absurd to suggest that a WR would surpass Walter Peyton's career yards-from-scrimmage record. I'm sure once upon a time people thought that Chad Hennigan's single-season reception record (101) would stand forever, since it had weathered the pass-happy 60s and the game had turned run-heavy, but now that season is tied for 38th on the all-time list and has been matched or exceeded by a fullback, a tight end, a rookie, a journeyman with no career pro bowls, and even two pairs of teammates in a single season. Who's to say that 20 years from now we aren't going to see a hybridized passing attack that includes a proliferation of the shovel pass with mediocre RBs averaging 150 catches a season? Or that in a decade there won't be the rise of an "East Coast Offense" that's built entirely on screen passes and bombs where the leading receiver routinely averages 2000+ yards per season?Even if Jerry Rice was the most talented WR who will ever play the game of football (and frankly, I'm not even convinced that he's the most talented to play football so far, thanks to Mr. Hutson), I seriously doubt that we've just gone through the most pass-happy era that the NFL will ever see, so surely there will be some lesser talent who shatters all of his records thanks to a friendlier situation.

 

[Penguin]

No one will catch Jerry, unless they expand the season. It simply won't happen in any of those categories.

I think Holt has a chance to catch Jerry in receptions. Not a great one, but a chance. He's almost 100 receptions ahead of Rice through age 30. He needs 335 receptions over the next five years to stay even with Rice (because Rice missed almost a full year at age 35) -- that seems like a lock to me. In fact, he should have a nice edge at age 35. It gets rough from there, because he won't match what Rice did later in his career....but it's not impossible for him to build up a 75-catch cushion over the next five years.

Just heard on Sirius NFL Radio today that Holt was the fastest to 10,000 yards. These records CAN be broken, but health, willingness to play into your 40's, and conditioning to be able to sustain that level of play all factor into it. Rice was a great WR that was also able to play at a very high level for a very long time.

 

[The Man Who Met Andy Griffith]

No one will catch Jerry, unless they expand the season. It simply won't happen in any of those categories.

I think Holt has a chance to catch Jerry in receptions. Not a great one, but a chance. He's almost 100 receptions ahead of Rice through age 30. He needs 335 receptions over the next five years to stay even with Rice (because Rice missed almost a full year at age 35) -- that seems like a lock to me. In fact, he should have a nice edge at age 35. It gets rough from there, because he won't match what Rice did later in his career....but it's not impossible for him to build up a 75-catch cushion over the next five years.

Just heard on Sirius NFL Radio today that Holt was the fastest to 10,000 yards. These records CAN be broken, but health, willingness to play into your 40's, and conditioning to be able to sustain that level of play all factor into it. Rice was a great WR that was also able to play at a very high level for a very long time.

Then again, who's to say that due to improvements in conditioning, playing into one's forties won't become commonplace down the road?

 

[Penguin]

Just looked up the numbers at Drinion's site. By fastest to 10,000 they must have meant games played, after 8 years Holt had 10.675 yds to Rice's 10,273. Rice was a year younger though (30 to 31) and had scored 101 TD's to Holt's 64. The amazing stat is that Rice's 101 TD's came on 620 receptions. Holt's 64 TD's were in 712 receptions. Rice scored every 6.138 receptions where as Holt scored once every 11.125 receptions.

 

[TheGreatest]

Just looked up the numbers at Drinion's site. By fastest to 10,000 they must have meant games played, after 8 years Holt had 10.675 yds to Rice's 10,273. Rice was a year younger though (30 to 31) and had scored 101 TD's to Holt's 64. The amazing stat is that Rice's 101 TD's came on 620 receptions. Holt's 64 TD's were in 712 receptions. Rice scored every 6.138 receptions where as Holt scored once every 11.125 receptions.

Rice was just sick. Uncoverable in his prime.

 

[cobalt_27]

Like i said, it simply...won't...happen.Props to the guys who are close, though.

Eras change. I'm sure it once would have seemed absurd to suggest that a WR would surpass Walter Peyton's career yards-from-scrimmage record. I'm sure once upon a time people thought that Chad Hennigan's single-season reception record (101) would stand forever, since it had weathered the pass-happy 60s and the game had turned run-heavy, but now that season is tied for 38th on the all-time list and has been matched or exceeded by a fullback, a tight end, a rookie, a journeyman with no career pro bowls, and even two pairs of teammates in a single season. Who's to say that 20 years from now we aren't going to see a hybridized passing attack that includes a proliferation of the shovel pass with mediocre RBs averaging 150 catches a season? Or that in a decade there won't be the rise of an "East Coast Offense" that's built entirely on screen passes and bombs where the leading receiver routinely averages 2000+ yards per season?Even if Jerry Rice was the most talented WR who will ever play the game of football (and frankly, I'm not even convinced that he's the most talented to play football so far, thanks to Mr. Hutson), I seriously doubt that we've just gone through the most pass-happy era that the NFL will ever see, so surely there will be some lesser talent who shatters all of his records thanks to a friendlier situation.

Talent + Opportunity + LongevityRice was a 10, 10, 10 on all counts. Others are 10, 9, 7 or 8, 9, 10...or whatever. Good luck betting on finding that player who's a 10 across the board. Good luck finding that 2000 yd/season guy who does it for 8+ years.Like I said, when the NFL expands its regular season, Rice's numbers will fall. But, not in the current 16-game format. Not a chance.

 

[SSOG]

Like i said, it simply...won't...happen.Props to the guys who are close, though.

Eras change. I'm sure it once would have seemed absurd to suggest that a WR would surpass Walter Peyton's career yards-from-scrimmage record. I'm sure once upon a time people thought that Chad Hennigan's single-season reception record (101) would stand forever, since it had weathered the pass-happy 60s and the game had turned run-heavy, but now that season is tied for 38th on the all-time list and has been matched or exceeded by a fullback, a tight end, a rookie, a journeyman with no career pro bowls, and even two pairs of teammates in a single season. Who's to say that 20 years from now we aren't going to see a hybridized passing attack that includes a proliferation of the shovel pass with mediocre RBs averaging 150 catches a season? Or that in a decade there won't be the rise of an "East Coast Offense" that's built entirely on screen passes and bombs where the leading receiver routinely averages 2000+ yards per season?Even if Jerry Rice was the most talented WR who will ever play the game of football (and frankly, I'm not even convinced that he's the most talented to play football so far, thanks to Mr. Hutson), I seriously doubt that we've just gone through the most pass-happy era that the NFL will ever see, so surely there will be some lesser talent who shatters all of his records thanks to a friendlier situation.

Talent + Opportunity + LongevityRice was a 10, 10, 10 on all counts. Others are 10, 9, 7 or 8, 9, 10...or whatever. Good luck betting on finding that player who's a 10 across the board. Good luck finding that 2000 yd/season guy who does it for 8+ years.Like I said, when the NFL expands its regular season, Rice's numbers will fall. But, not in the current 16-game format. Not a chance.

Rice might have been a 10 in opportunity compared to everything so far, but like I said, there's no knowing what's going to happen in future eras. There might be an era that's so pass wacky that Rice is bumped down to a 6 in opportunity. Like I said, just as an example, if the shovel pass ever makes it big in the NFL, some RB is going to SHATTER Rice's receptions record, since the shovel pass is basically a glorified handoff. I could see someone getting 200 "receptions" in a year. Before the proliferation of the Bill Walsh offense, no one would have dreamed that one day the NFL would be ruled by an offense dominated by short passes over the middle of the field designed to consistently move the chains and lead to yards after the catch. In the same way, I'm sure that there's a "next big thing" on offense lurking out there right now that none of us could even dream of, and it's going to dramatically alter the numbers that are put up in this league. Whether it dramatically alters rushing numbers or receiving numbers or passing numbers or whatever, somewhere the baseline for what's "normal" and what's "abnormal" is going to change... and if that change occurs at the WR position, Rice's numbers are going to suddenly look very vulnerable. Will it happen? Eventually, yes, I'm convinced that it will.Edit: Not to mention how advances in modern medicine are going to lengthen career spans over the next couple of decades. In 1970, Rice would have never put up the numbers that he did, because he never could have returned from his injury in 1998. Without that, Marvin Harrison would be 35 receptions, 3,000 yards away, and 33 TDs away from his career totals (and the receptions total would only rank him 3rd all-time). In the future, there are going to be even MORE advances in medicine, and players will be recovering quicker, playing longer, and staying healthier.

 

[BaBastage]

Rice might have been a 10 in opportunity compared to everything so far, but like I said, there's no knowing what's going to happen in future eras. There might be an era that's so pass wacky that Rice is bumped down to a 6 in opportunity. Like I said, just as an example, if the shovel pass ever makes it big in the NFL, some RB is going to SHATTER Rice's receptions record, since the shovel pass is basically a glorified handoff. I could see someone getting 200 "receptions" in a year. Before the proliferation of the Bill Walsh offense, no one would have dreamed that one day the NFL would be ruled by an offense dominated by short passes over the middle of the field designed to consistently move the chains and lead to yards after the catch. In the same way, I'm sure that there's a "next big thing" on offense lurking out there right now that none of us could even dream of, and it's going to dramatically alter the numbers that are put up in this league. Whether it dramatically alters rushing numbers or receiving numbers or passing numbers or whatever, somewhere the baseline for what's "normal" and what's "abnormal" is going to change... and if that change occurs at the WR position, Rice's numbers are going to suddenly look very vulnerable. Will it happen? Eventually, yes, I'm convinced that it will.Edit: Not to mention how advances in modern medicine are going to lengthen career spans over the next couple of decades. In 1970, Rice would have never put up the numbers that he did, because he never could have returned from his injury in 1998. Without that, Marvin Harrison would be 35 receptions, 3,000 yards away, and 33 TDs away from his career totals (and the receptions total would only rank him 3rd all-time). In the future, there are going to be even MORE advances in medicine, and players will be recovering quicker, playing longer, and staying healthier.

Exactly. Hence my original statement saying that it's difficult to really compare players outside the era they played in.

 

[heckmanm]

I think my favorite Rice stat is that he has the all-time record for career yards from scrimmage (rushing + receiving). Something like the next 10 are all RBs, so for a WR to hold the record is amazing.

(sorry, no link)

 

[SSOG]

I think my favorite Rice stat is that he has the all-time record for career yards from scrimmage (rushing + receiving). Something like the next 10 are all RBs, so for a WR to hold the record is amazing.

(sorry, no link)

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/misc/yfs.htm

 

[heckmanm]

I think my favorite Rice stat is that he has the all-time record for career yards from scrimmage (rushing + receiving). Something like the next 10 are all RBs, so for a WR to hold the record is amazing.

(sorry, no link)

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/misc/yfs.htm

Much obliged. :tipscap:23,540, more than 2K yards ahead of Emmitt. Next WR on the list is Tim Brown, 8K yards back.

A testament to his longevity is that he never lead the league for a season, and doesn't have a single season in the top 50 list.

 

[Chase Stuart]

I think my favorite Rice stat is that he has the all-time record for career yards from scrimmage (rushing + receiving). Something like the next 10 are all RBs, so for a WR to hold the record is amazing.

(sorry, no link)

Here's my favorite Rice stat.As much as Rice might be the greatest WR ever, he's about a million times ahead as the greatest old WR ever. Rice is the ONLY receiver to ever make a catch in an NFL game at age 40. And he had 1,211 receiving yards that year. That's just ridiculous. Rice is also the only WR to have 1,000 receiving yards at age 39.

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/h...c&display=c

 

[BaBastage]

shameless bump as it pertains to the other Rice / Moss thread getting a lot of traffic today.

Sorry if this is considered bad etiquette.