Jet trade Mawae? draft Cutler? (1 Viewer)

[Rovers]

Abraham made it clear late last season, his first injury-free campaign since 2002, that he wanted the Jets, or someone, to sign him to a long-term contract. It is becoming increasingly apparent that the Jets will not be that team.

According to published reports, Abraham has told friends he wants out of New York, no matter what the cap-strapped Jets decide to do. The franchise tag would guarantee him a salary of $8.3 million for the 2006 season.

They now will likely try to trade him, but cap considerations could make this scenario difficult. The Jets would need to clear $34 million off their 2006 cap by March 3, the day free-agency begins, to be able to absorb the salary-cap hit that would come from franchising and then trading Abraham.

In any event, it appears that Abraham will be someplace else in 2006, and that leaves a gaping hole. While 2002 No. 1 pick Bryan Thomas, who has filled in for both Abraham and Shaun Ellis during his Jets' career and has finally shown flashes of being the player the Jets expected, he has actually been much more effective against the run.

He has yet to develop into the type of pass-rusher the Jets hoped he would, and worse yet, Ellis' production usually has declined when Abraham wasn't on the opposite end to take pressure off him.

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/football/nfl/jets/home.htm

I wonder what happens if Abraham doesn't sign the one year contract offerred with the franchise tag. Apparently the Jets really need him to sign before March 3rd but that would mean he'd have to take part in their offseason workouts and well he just doesn't do that. Suppose he doesn't actually sign it but they find someone willing to trade for him. They can remove the tag right? Then does the new team have to pay him the truckload of the franchise tag comes with? Do the Jets take a cap hit if he's traded(his rights I suppose) before he actually signs the contract?

I think the Jets FO would choke if Abraham signed the tender.... they can't afford the 8.3 mil cap hit, this is being done so the Jets can keep his rights for a trade of some kind. The tag can be pulled at any time, as long as Abraham does'nt sign. Since he wants out of NY, I think he'll go along with the program. Abraham's trade value isn't very high, due to his demands of an 18 mil signing bonus and insistance he be the highest paid DE in the NFL. I can't see any team giving up a first round pick for him.

As far as Jets fans go, the vast majority understand this team will have a bad W-L record for at least two years, minimum. Now, how to rebuild there is little consensus on. I feel drafting Cutler is the right way to go, and let him carry the clipboard for at the very least, the first 8 games of 2006, if not almost the entire season. This draft is very deep in O linemen, and Jones at LT is the most solidified position on the Jets O line. Drafting Ferguson makes little sense to me.

The Jets will need another LB and a NT to make the switch to the 3-4, and with expected cuts, may be starting 3 rookies on the O line in 2006. Very, very few Jet fans are delusional enough to think this team will be competitive for some time.

 

[Z-Dog]

Can somebody explain to me why the perception is Abraham is worth a 1st round pick?

Because he is very talented when on the field. And some team that is close and feels a disruptive DE gets them over the top would certainly like to have him over a rookie.I wouldn't pay a 1st rdr, but I'm not a GM.

I understand Abraham has value. But when I look at Patrick Surtain who is equally as talented as Abraham is at his position, equally hard to come by and has far more locker room cred only pulled 2nd round value.

I don't know why you choose Pat Surtain as you model for comparison to John Abraham. Surtain was a 2nd round pick, while Abraham was drafted 13th overall. Surtain is a good CB, but Abraham is probably a top-10 pass rusher who averages over 10 sacks/season. He's all of 27 years old, which is right in his prime. It's my belief that a full-time DE who get double-digit sacks and is 3 years shy of 30 must be worth a 1st-rounder. Surtain was traded for a 2nd plus a few slots up in the 5th. The second was 46th overall, a mid-second rounder. They then gave swapped their high 5th for a low 5th, which means that Surtain's value was about 47th-48th overall. At the time, Surtain was 29 years old. My thinking is that Abraham is a better player than Surtain, at a position where there is somewhat more scarcity, and he's two years younger than Surtain was to boot. I think that pumps his value up to a late first-rounder, somwhere south of 23rd.

What's Dwight Freeny's value? Similar age, maybe a better pass rusher, not as good against the run. Is he worth a first rounder? How about Javon Kearse? Julius Peppers? Stats-wise, Abraham compares favorably to these players.

 

[softball]

I post on Jet homer boards and you'll be hardpressed to find a Jets fan who is optomistic about Wins and Losses for the upcoming year

It is all so sad. Just 365 days ago the Jets were considered somewhat young (defensively anyway) and a legit AFC Championship contender.I am secretly a part-time Jets fan and just flabergasted at their fall.

And to answer you Surtain post. He's 29 and Abraham 26. That's the best I got man!

 

[diesel7982]

I post on Jet homer boards and you'll be hardpressed to find a Jets fan who is optomistic about Wins and Losses for the upcoming year

It is all so sad. Just 365 days ago the Jets were considered somewhat young (defensively anyway) and a legit AFC Championship contender.I am secretly a part-time Jets fan and just flabergasted at their fall.

This really confused me last year. I guess it was because I was buying into the PFT reports they put out all spring and summer about how bad Pennys shoulder was.

 

[Kiddnets]

Can somebody explain to me why the perception is Abraham is worth a 1st round pick?

Because he is very talented when on the field. And some team that is close and feels a disruptive DE gets them over the top would certainly like to have him over a rookie.I wouldn't pay a 1st rdr, but I'm not a GM.

I understand Abraham has value. But when I look at Patrick Surtain who is equally as talented as Abraham is at his position, equally hard to come by and has far more locker room cred only pulled 2nd round value.

I don't know why you choose Pat Surtain as you model for comparison to John Abraham. Surtain was a 2nd round pick, while Abraham was drafted 13th overall. Surtain is a good CB, but Abraham is probably a top-10 pass rusher who averages over 10 sacks/season. He's all of 27 years old, which is right in his prime. It's my belief that a full-time DE who get double-digit sacks and is 3 years shy of 30 must be worth a 1st-rounder. Surtain was traded for a 2nd plus a few slots up in the 5th. The second was 46th overall, a mid-second rounder. They then gave swapped their high 5th for a low 5th, which means that Surtain's value was about 47th-48th overall. At the time, Surtain was 29 years old. My thinking is that Abraham is a better player than Surtain, at a position where there is somewhat more scarcity, and he's two years younger than Surtain was to boot. I think that pumps his value up to a late first-rounder, somwhere south of 23rd.

What's Dwight Freeny's value? Similar age, maybe a better pass rusher, not as good against the run. Is he worth a first rounder? How about Javon Kearse? Julius Peppers? Stats-wise, Abraham compares favorably to these players.

I don't think its delusional to think that John Abe's value is a mid to late 1st rd pick. Now if Bradaway was still GM they would settle for a 4th rd pick, but now there is a new regime that knows what they are doing!

Young stud pass rushers are rare valuable commodities and with Tenn locking up the other high sought FA, there should be a good market for Abe.

 

[Portis 26]

I think people are playing far, FAR too much Madden.

 

[MLBrandow]

I think people are playing far, FAR too much Madden.

I think that Denver 22 pick looks mighty good for a John Abraham.

 

[BlueOnion]

I don't know why you choose Pat Surtain as you model for comparison to John Abraham. Surtain was a 2nd round pick, while Abraham was drafted 13th overall. Surtain is a good CB, but Abraham is probably a top-10 pass rusher who averages over 10 sacks/season. He's all of 27 years old, which is right in his prime. It's my belief that a full-time DE who get double-digit sacks and is 3 years shy of 30 must be worth a 1st-rounder.

Surtain was traded for a 2nd plus a few slots up in the 5th. The second was 46th overall, a mid-second rounder. They then gave swapped their high 5th for a low 5th, which means that Surtain's value was about 47th-48th overall. At the time, Surtain was 29 years old. My thinking is that Abraham is a better player than Surtain, at a position where there is somewhat more scarcity, and he's two years younger than Surtain was to boot. I think that pumps his value up to a late first-rounder, somwhere south of 23rd.

What's Dwight Freeny's value? Similar age, maybe a better pass rusher, not as good against the run. Is he worth a first rounder? How about Javon Kearse? Julius Peppers? Stats-wise, Abraham compares favorably to these players.

I choose Surtain because I considered him one of the top players at his position last year, and I think big time cornerbacks and big time defensive ends have about the same value.But most of what you say about Abraham is true, except you left off his reputation. Miami did not want to get ride of Surtain, which I think increases his value. For whatever reason, the Jets don't want to sign Abraham to a long term deal and I think this works against him; like myself I am sure other GMs are wondering why this is.

 

[Reaper]

I don't know why you choose Pat Surtain as you model for comparison to John Abraham. Surtain was a 2nd round pick, while Abraham was drafted 13th overall. Surtain is a good CB, but Abraham is probably a top-10 pass rusher who averages over 10 sacks/season. He's all of 27 years old, which is right in his prime. It's my belief that a full-time DE who get double-digit sacks and is 3 years shy of 30 must be worth a 1st-rounder.

Surtain was traded for a 2nd plus a few slots up in the 5th. The second was 46th overall, a mid-second rounder. They then gave swapped their high 5th for a low 5th, which means that Surtain's value was about 47th-48th overall. At the time, Surtain was 29 years old. My thinking is that Abraham is a better player than Surtain, at a position where there is somewhat more scarcity, and he's two years younger than Surtain was to boot. I think that pumps his value up to a late first-rounder, somwhere south of 23rd.

What's Dwight Freeny's value? Similar age, maybe a better pass rusher, not as good against the run. Is he worth a first rounder? How about Javon Kearse? Julius Peppers? Stats-wise, Abraham compares favorably to these players.

I choose Surtain because I considered him one of the top players at his position last year, and I think big time cornerbacks and big time defensive ends have about the same value.But most of what you say about Abraham is true, except you left off his reputation. Miami did not want to get ride of Surtain, which I think increases his value. For whatever reason, the Jets don't want to sign Abraham to a long term deal and I think this works against him; like myself I am sure other GMs are wondering why this is.

Miami Dolphins cornerback Patrick Surtain was arrested for speeding and drunken driving. Other than that Abe has that thing about not playing in the playoffs - It was proven afterwards that his injury was much worse than let on and the team was just playing games with info in the playoffs but, he took the brunt of it in the media - and it apparently, still sticks.

But, yeah, overall Abe is considered a possible injury risk and Surtain is not.

As for teams " Not wanting" - I think both teams were equal in that sense - The Jets WANT a player like Abraham But, aren't in a position to give a player top 5 DE money... Just like Miami, with a new regime wasn't in position to give a player top 5 CB money.

I'm actually starting to look at Super Mario as a possible Jets pick - I remember when the Pats took Seymour over a lot of other players people thought they should / would take and Seymour was a major Key in that defense being able to do what it does and mix it up.... Super Mario - a 280 lb monster DE with speed, In place of Abraham could be nice and allow the Jets a lot more flexibility and 3-4 opportunities.

And NO I'm not saying the Jets can trade Abe and get Mario, Ferguson AND Cutler

 

[Reaper]

NOW PFT has the Jets trading UP for..................Cutler...

Come on.

This just has to be a lot of smoke-screening by the Jets... The higher Cutler's value and the more players that have top 4 attention, the more the Jets might get in a trade DOWN.

JETS LOOKING TO SWAP WITH SAINTS?

There’s talk in league circles that the New York Jets are sufficiently smitten with Vanderbilt quarterback Jay Cutler to prompt serious consideration by the front office of a trade up in the April draft from the No. 4 overall spot to No. 2, which pick currently is held by the Saints.

The Jets’ objective would be to leapfrog the Titans, who sit and No. 3 – and who likewise are thought to be thinking seriously about drafting Cutler.

The only hitch is that the Saints are believed to be primarily interested in USC quarterback Matt Leinart, who very well could be plucked by the Titans at No. 3 if Cutler is off the board.

Stay tuned.

 

[BlueOnion]

Wow, Cutler's stock is just going through the roof. Definitely the top story I will follow in this year's NFL draft, who drafts Jay Cutler and where.

 

[Kiddnets]

Gotta be a smoke screen - no way the Jets trade up to get Cutler unless they are convinced he is the next Favre!

#4 has turned into a very nice spot - you are guaranteed to get one of Bush, Leinart, Young, Brick or Cutler - why trade up? Sit tight and grab the one of the two that falls to you.

 

[ooofffaaa]

Gotta be a smoke screen - no way the Jets trade up to get Cutler unless they are convinced he is the next Favre!

#4 has turned into a very nice spot - you are guaranteed to get one of Bush, Leinart, Young, Brick or Cutler - why trade up? Sit tight and grab the one of the two that falls to you.

LOVE the avatar Kiddnets. That's hysterical.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

I think people are playing far, FAR too much Madden.

Seriously. The whole "if this then that" stuff is getting out of hand.

 

[Bri]

Seriously. The whole "if this then that" stuff is getting out of hand.

it's typical, as you know. Some people love this kinda stuff, some don't. There's alot of regulars not in the pool this time of year because of it. It happens.March 3rd or so, they'll be some real news worth chatting about which might be more "up your alley", hang in there Andy

 

[Z-Dog]

I'm having serious doubts about the Cutler thing myself. For one, I can't remember the last time the Jets said one thing and then did it in the draft. Under Bradway, the Jets routinely contradicted themselves/blew smoke. I also don't remember Parcells or Belichick tipping their hands, so I don't really expect Tannenbaum and Mangini to either.

The only thing that leaves me puzzled is what exactly the Jets plan to do at QB. It sure sounds to me like the Jets want to trade down, but if they're pimping Cutler, then they don't expect to actually take him at 1.05-1.10. So what are they planning at QB? They can't afford Brees, so are they planning on going for veterans like Brooks or Griese? And will they draft a QB in 2nd or 3rd rounds?

 

[Kiddnets]

Gotta be a smoke screen - no way the Jets trade up to get Cutler unless they are convinced he is the next Favre!

#4 has turned into a very nice spot - you are guaranteed to get one of Bush, Leinart, Young, Brick or Cutler - why trade up?  Sit tight and grab the one of the two that falls to you.

LOVE the avatar Kiddnets. That's hysterical.

Gotta give credit to Pro Football Talk - they have great pics. Also so one in the JEt boards with Chad's right arm removed with a note sticking out of it stating "IOU $64M"

 

[Bri]

I'm having serious doubts about the Cutler thing myself. For one, I can't remember the last time the Jets said one thing and then did it in the draft. Under Bradway, the Jets routinely contradicted themselves/blew smoke. I also don't remember Parcells or Belichick tipping their hands, so I don't really expect Tannenbaum and Mangini to either.

The only thing that leaves me puzzled is what exactly the Jets plan to do at QB. It sure sounds to me like the Jets want to trade down, but if they're pimping Cutler, then they don't expect to actually take him at 1.05-1.10. So what are they planning at QB? They can't afford Brees, so are they planning on going for veterans like Brooks or Griese? And will they draft a QB in 2nd or 3rd rounds?

There have been rumors and talk of them trading or releasing Mawae for a while now. Pennington seems to be restructured or released. Martin agreed to restructure. Law and Fabini made decent $ and were cut. Law I think was only a 1 year deal though. There is talk( just talk) of them trading Abe's big contract. I'd be surprised if the Jets didn't have some $ to spend after all is said and done.I'd think it's foolish to go from one shoulder worry to another but I wouldn't be surprised if they could afford Brees. All the above moves have to be for a reason. Is it just to free up some cap space and start anew with the new regime or did they have some players in mind? I don't know what the reason is but IMO it's pretty clear they're up to something. Maybe they'll make a big splash in 2007, who knows.

 

[Z-Dog]

I'm having serious doubts about the Cutler thing myself. For one, I can't remember the last time the Jets said one thing and then did it in the draft. Under Bradway, the Jets routinely contradicted themselves/blew smoke. I also don't remember Parcells or Belichick tipping their hands, so I don't really expect Tannenbaum and Mangini to either.

The only thing that leaves me puzzled is what exactly the Jets plan to do at QB. It sure sounds to me like the Jets want to trade down, but if they're pimping Cutler, then they don't expect to actually take him at 1.05-1.10. So what are they planning at QB? They can't afford Brees, so are they planning on going for veterans like Brooks or Griese? And will they draft a QB in 2nd or 3rd rounds?

There have been rumors and talk of them trading or releasing Mawae for a while now. Pennington seems to be restructured or released. Martin agreed to restructure. Law and Fabini made decent $ and were cut. Law I think was only a 1 year deal though. There is talk( just talk) of them trading Abe's big contract. I'd be surprised if the Jets didn't have some $ to spend after all is said and done.I'd think it's foolish to go from one shoulder worry to another but I wouldn't be surprised if they could afford Brees. All the above moves have to be for a reason. Is it just to free up some cap space and start anew with the new regime or did they have some players in mind? I don't know what the reason is but IMO it's pretty clear they're up to something. Maybe they'll make a big splash in 2007, who knows.

IIRC, they were about $25 million over the cap before the purge. After the most recent purge, I think they are still well over the caps. Unless the CBA gets redone, and they get an exta $5-$10 million to work with, I don't think they will have room for anything besides rookies (and with a 1.04, that's not chump change). It also appears that the owner isn't so willing to open the checkbook to FAs right now. I really doubt that they can afford Brees, and if they could, it would only be if they cut Kendall and Mawae, meaning that they'd have a new QB, but only Adrian Jones and Brandon Moore to block for him.

 

[Bri]

I forgot they were so far above, very good point.

 

[Reaper]

It also appears that the owner isn't so willing to open the checkbook to FAs right now.

Link?I don't know why people say this unless they have inside info...

Jets are WAY above the cap - How can you tell wether Woody wants to spend money on FA's or not? he's already spending MORE than the cap...

What more can he do to "open his checkbook"?

 

[Z-Dog]

It also appears that the owner isn't so willing to open the checkbook to FAs right now.

Link?I don't know why people say this unless they have inside info...

Jets are WAY above the cap - How can you tell wether Woody wants to spend money on FA's or not? he's already spending MORE than the cap...

What more can he do to "open his checkbook"?

Sorry, I thought it was obvious that Johnson wasn't interested in opening his checkbook b/c he preferred to let Herm walk instead of paying him a few more million. There was talk in all the NY papers at the time that Johnson had instructed the organization to cut costs now that the stadium deal in NYC wasn't going to happen. If you look at the Jets coaching staff, you'll see that most of the position coaches are former players in their first coaching stint (e.g. Richie Anderson, Rick Lyle, Corwin Brown, Bryan Cox). Though the team is spinning this as rebuilding in the style of the Patriots, I remember the Patriots hiring a vastly experienced and highly respected assistant coach who had HC experience too. Mangini is a young turk with a posse of former players on his staff.As for spending money, as well know, you can restructure contracts by paying large signing bonuses, but Tannenbaum isn't offering simple restructurings to anyone.

 

[Bri]

that's not true at all

4 is not most coaches

Lyle is an assistant something and not even the main position coach. Richie is in his first year as a WR coach but Gash is gone as the RB coach.

Cox well that makes everyone's head spin.

Corwin Brown coached with Al Groh at Virginia and other teams were interested in him too.

 

[brednbuddah]

Sorry, I thought it was obvious that Johnson wasn't interested in opening his checkbook b/c he preferred to let Herm walk instead of paying him a few more million. There was talk in all the NY papers at the time that Johnson had instructed the organization to cut costs now that the stadium deal in NYC wasn't going to happen. If you look at the Jets coaching staff, you'll see that most of the position coaches are former players in their first coaching stint (e.g. Richie Anderson, Rick Lyle, Corwin Brown, Bryan Cox). Though the team is spinning this as rebuilding in the style of the Patriots, I remember the Patriots hiring a vastly experienced and highly respected assistant coach who had HC experience too. Mangini is a young turk with a posse of former players on his staff.

you had to know this was going to happen. no veteran coach is going to be looking to join the staff of a 35 yr old, first year head coach. just look at heimerdinger. he just about left tracks.we jets fans are on the ground floor of a loooong haul. this will take a few seasons of growing pains to materialize at the earliest. I just don't think NY is going to be that patient with the kiddie pool project.

 

[Z-Dog]

that's not true at all

4 is not most coaches

Lyle is an assistant something and not even the main position coach. Richie is in his first year as a WR coach but Gash is gone as the RB coach.

Cox well that makes everyone's head spin.

Corwin Brown coached with Al Groh at Virginia and other teams were interested in him too.

This isn't about the assistant coaches. The point is that Woody isn't opening his checkbook quite so freely nowadays. And Gash is still on, assisting Westhoff with the special teams and Raye with the running backs. I'm not suggesting that these coaches are incompetent, only that they come more cheaply than 15-year veteran coaches. The only really veteran coaches are the OC and the ST coach.

 

[Bri]

you listed the coaches, I replied to those coaches. I'm missing something here

 

[BlueOnion]

It also appears that the owner isn't so willing to open the checkbook to FAs right now.

Link?I don't know why people say this unless they have inside info...

Jets are WAY above the cap - How can you tell wether Woody wants to spend money on FA's or not? he's already spending MORE than the cap...

What more can he do to "open his checkbook"?

Sorry, I thought it was obvious that Johnson wasn't interested in opening his checkbook b/c he preferred to let Herm walk instead of paying him a few more million.

I think this is more the New York media just spinning it's wheels and trying to drum up a story. The Jets salary cap is so bad because the Jets have given away some huge chunks of guaranteed money in the past.Obviously there is some rebuilding going on now, so there will be occasions not to splurge.

I know there is talk about Woody losing a lot of money on some other ventures, but again I think this is the New York media just trying to stir the hornets nest because they had nothing else to talk about at the time (Baseball was stagnant, Knicks blow, et al).

Edited to add - The reports about Woody having Patriot envy I buy into.

 

[Z-Dog]

you listed the coaches, I replied to those coaches. I'm missing something here

My point about the coaches was as an indication of frugality in the Jets organization. It doesn't really matter what the exact number of former players in coaching positions is. The point is that the Jets bought a staff on the young and cheap side.

 

[Reaper]

It also appears that the owner isn't so willing to open the checkbook to FAs right now.

Link?I don't know why people say this unless they have inside info...

Jets are WAY above the cap - How can you tell wether Woody wants to spend money on FA's or not? he's already spending MORE than the cap...

What more can he do to "open his checkbook"?

Sorry, I thought it was obvious that Johnson wasn't interested in opening his checkbook b/c he preferred to let Herm walk instead of paying him a few more million.

I think this is more the New York media just spinning it's wheels and trying to drum up a story. The Jets salary cap is so bad because the Jets have given away some huge chunks of guaranteed money in the past.Obviously there is some rebuilding going on now, so there will be occasions not to splurge.

I know there is talk about Woody losing a lot of money on some other ventures, but again I think this is the New York media just trying to stir the hornets nest because they had nothing else to talk about at the time (Baseball was stagnant, Knicks blow, et al).

Edited to add - The reports about Woody having Patriot envy I buy into.

Yeah - I don't buy the Woody is a cheapskate thing at all - And HERM isn't an example of anything - Woody finaly realized what a complete BOOB Herm is - THAT is why he didn't open his wallet - Not that he was cheap...Same thing for the players going - They are cutting the cap and not just opening up the wallet for anyone - But, the guys the new FO targets as players, they'll open the wallet for.