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John Brown - Is Brown a difference maker or just another guy? (1 Viewer)

S

Saboo

Footballguy
There's been a ton of hype about Brown coming into the season, but does anyone feel he is going to be a legit difference maker? By difference maker I mean a player who can be a legit #2 wr. I haven't had a chance to see I'm play in the Ravens system yet, but I've heard great things thus far.

Any thoughts on Brown?

 
The Ravens passing game is seldom something to get excited about.

Sure you may get a, mostly startable WR2 (if things break well) but I think you are more likely to be disappointed week-over-week.

 
I took him with my final pick in a 14-team league. Considering that historically, I have pretty much never hit on a late-round WR, I'm not expecting much. But I assume we'll know in a week or two. 

 
If healthy he "can" be a difference maker, if the sickle cell comes back= JAG. He makes a great stash and hold.

 
Boom or bust week to week wr5 that will have a couple wr2 or even a wr 1 week. I wouldn’t expect much more than what mike Wallace did there, which is decent for a late pick I guess. 

 
If he stays healthy he can be a difference maker.

because of the sickle cell trait, he is slower to heal if he gets hurt. 

So it could be both. I’m rooting for him - seems like a good dude, and he’s clearly worked his butt off to be where he is despite the obvious barriers he’s faced health-wise. 

 
Looking good tonight. Everyone will focus on the 4/92/1 (posting this with 3:00 left in game), but what is jumping out to me is 9 targets. They're taking deep shots but not exclusively.

 
zftcg said:
Looking good tonight. Everyone will focus on the 4/92/1 (posting this with 3:00 left in game), but what is jumping out to me is 9 targets. They're taking deep shots but not exclusively.
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Yep. Should have had another touchdown too on a play he usually makes. 

 
My worry is that his upside is limited. He'll have some good games, but his ceiling is WR1a on a so-so offense.

 
Got a good chance to catch a 2nd TD in the Red Zone, Flacco made a bad throw, but still coulda been caught.  

I'm in a dynasty league where my WR's are rough, so I had to start him tonight.  

 
Chaka said:
I'm not so sure about that. I'd say that, at best he's "usually" a 50:50 shot to make that play (probably less).
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I disagree. He’s been money around the red zone, and that  actually is a catch he usually makes.

 
zftcg said:
My worry is that his upside is limited. He'll have some good games, but his ceiling is WR1a on a so-so offense.
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That sounds like a very good thing to me. Considering where he was drafted, a “WR1a” as you put it is tremendous value. 

 
kutta said:
I disagree. He’s been money around the red zone, and that  actually is a catch he usually makes.
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Not sure what you are basing that on K.

52% career catch rate. 42 of 58 career games played with Carson Palmer.

I would like to hear support for the idea that he usually catches that pass.

 
Chaka said:
Not sure what you are basing that on K.

52% career catch rate. 42 of 58 career games played with Carson Palmer.

I would like to hear support for the idea that he usually catches that pass.
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In 2015, his last really healthy year, he caught 11 of 18 redzone targets for 61 percent.

The next year when he was a mess with injuries he was 2 of 5 for 40 percent.

Last year he was 4 of 6 for 67 percent.

Overall he is 17 of 29 for 58 percent catch rate in the red zone.

It’s safe to assume most of them weren’t pretty blatant drops like that one was, so yeah, I’d say he usually catches that pass.

ETA: I’ve watched a lot of John Brown. I can’t find his actual end zone stats, but I would guess his catch rate is even higher in the end zone. Especially for balls right in his hands.

 
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OnTheReg said:
That sounds like a very good thing to me. Considering where he was drafted, a “WR1a” as you put it is tremendous value. 
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Exactly. 

Believe I secured J. Brown in round 14 right before I was looking for a kicker and a handcuff. I'm absolutely THRILLED that I may have a WR3 emerge here and maybe even a WR2 with the right matchup.

Instead of drafting somebody I dumped back into waivers after week 1 I have solid WR depth and more with J. Brown. Good good.

 
The fact remains John Brown is getting red zone looks per game and will always lead Balt in air yard shots downfield and the end zone.  It's a two game sample but they are using him similar to the Rams using Brandin Cooks.  Cooks was drafted 5th round in my 12 team league.  I took Brown in the 11th, basically for free.  He is 20% owned in Yahoo leagues and will be considered one of the top waiver pickups all over the net after week 2.  Fine by me.

 
kutta said:
In 2015, his last really healthy year, he caught 11 of 18 redzone targets for 61 percent.

The next year when he was a mess with injuries he was 2 of 5 for 40 percent.

Last year he was 4 of 6 for 67 percent.

Overall he is 17 of 29 for 58 percent catch rate in the red zone.

It’s safe to assume most of them weren’t pretty blatant drops like that one was, so yeah, I’d say he usually catches that pass.
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Okay. I honestly find that is a thin explanation but I accept why one would put stock in it.  Sincerely.

Then again Palmer had a  career 55.8% completion rate in the Red Zone (51.2% inside the 10) and Flacco has a 50.4% career rate (47.9% I side the 10).

And Brown still has a 51% catch rate in the red zone 38% inside the 10 regardless of explanations.

If Brown was signed by Green Bay, New England or New Orleans I would probably be driving the bandwagon. However, at best Brown made a lateral move at QB and possibly a downgrade.

I think the best possible way to view Brown is through the lens of increased opportunities. It really looks like he is the #1A/B WR in Baltimore, a status he never came close to in Arizona (for obvious reasons). So even if his career rates hold he should still have his best season by a wide margin. And if he improves on his career averages, which is certainly possible (averages typically encompass a wide range) he may even finish this season as a mid/high end WR2. I don't see top 12 WR potential in this offense.

 
Chaka said:
Okay. I honestly find that is a thin explanation but I accept why one would put stock in it.  Sincerely.

Then again Palmer had a  career 55.8% completion rate in the Red Zone (51.2% inside the 10) and Flacco has a 50.4% career rate (47.9% I side the 10).

And Brown still has a 51% catch rate in the red zone 38% inside the 10 regardless of explanations.

If Brown was signed by Green Bay, New England or New Orleans I would probably be driving the bandwagon. However, at best Brown made a lateral move at QB and possibly a downgrade.

I think the best possible way to view Brown is through the lens of increased opportunities. It really looks like he is the #1A/B WR in Baltimore, a status he never came close to in Arizona (for obvious reasons). So even if his career rates hold he should still have his best season by a wide margin. And if he improves on his career averages, which is certainly possible (averages typically encompass a wide range) he may even finish this season as a mid/high end WR2. I don't see top 12 WR potential in this offense.
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I pretty much agree with everything you said. I don’t think anyone is expecting a top 12 finish for him. Top 25 would be great, especially based on his draft position.

 
Chaka said:
Not sure what you are basing that on K.

52% career catch rate. 42 of 58 career games played with Carson Palmer.

I would like to hear support for the idea that he usually catches that pass.
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He’s been mostly used as a deep threat so his catch rate would be artificially lowered.

 
Dr. Octopus said:
He’s been mostly used as a deep threat so his catch rate would be artificially lowered.
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His career high is 15.4 y/r this year yet is at 19.4 y/r. 

Not sure where to check depth of target to compare each but would love to see the data.

 
Chaka said:
Not sure what you are basing that on K.

52% career catch rate. 42 of 58 career games played with Carson Palmer.

I would like to hear support for the idea that he usually catches that pass.
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To be fair, catch rate and drop rate are not directly related, as many passes are not catchable... the pass last night was catchable. Even Ted Ginn probably catches 75% of the passes that hit him in the hands. Brown straight up dropped that end zone pass. It was behind him, but that's a pass he and any other practice squad level NFL receiver should make the vast majority of the time. I'm not particularly keen on him as a red zone target, but I see no flaw in the statement that he usually catches that pass. 

 
Dr. Octopus said:
He’s been mostly used as a deep threat so his catch rate would be artificially lowered.
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51% catch rate I'm the red zone, 38% inside the 10. Yes I do understand why those numbers would be deflated too.

The only point I was disputing is the notion that he usually catches the ball he missed last night. I agree that he should have caught it, I just question whether or not Brown is the caliber of WR that usually catches that ball.

 
Chaka said:
51% catch rate I'm the red zone, 38% inside the 10. Yes I do understand why those numbers would be deflated too.

The only point I was disputing is the notion that he usually catches the ball he missed last night. I agree that he should have caught it, I just question whether or not Brown is the caliber of WR that usually catches that ball.
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I think any WR in the NFL usually catches that ball (ok, maybe not Ross).

 
Chaka said:
I think people are drastically overestimating how catchable that pass was.
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Are we talking about the one that was thrown a little behind him in the end zone on the left side? Because that was a very catchable ball.

 
Chaka said:
51% catch rate I'm the red zone, 38% inside the 10. Yes I do understand why those numbers would be deflated too.

The only point I was disputing is the notion that he usually catches the ball he missed last night. I agree that he should have caught it, I just question whether or not Brown is the caliber of WR that usually catches that ball.
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A ball that hits him right in the hands?

 
Chaka said:
Really? By asking you a question and providing data?

Do I need to apologise for questioning John Brown's ability? 

ETA: Mea culpa
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You are the only one that that’s a ball he normally should catch. 

It’s a conversation I’m done with. Your stance is kind of silly.

 
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