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Jon Kitna top 5 qb? (1 Viewer)

Thumper

Footballguy
When you consider that Kitna has one of, if not the best 1-2 wr's in the NFL. Plus, he is in Mike Martz run and gun offense I don't think it is out of the question that Kitna puts up 4,300 yds and 25 td's this season.

I would not be surprised if he had better numbers than guys like Marc Bulger (T.Holt is hurting) and Tom Brady (Randy Moss has not practiced + almost got cut) this season.

I think he is a mid round bargain

Any thoughts?

 
He is what he is. A decent qb with average arm strength but good field awareness, in an offensive system and with a set of WRs that could boost his stock. But he is not on level with elite, so only a good value if he falls for later.

When you consider that Kitna has one of, if not the best 1-2 wr's in the NFL. Plus, he is in Mike Martz run and gun offense I don't think it is out of the question that Kitna puts up 4,300 yds and 25 td's this season.I would not be surprised if he had better numbers than guys like Marc Bulger (T.Holt is hurting) and Tom Brady (Randy Moss has not practiced + almost got cut) this season.I think he is a mid round bargainAny thoughts?
 
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I basically agree with you. If people are sleeping on Kitna in your league, he's an awesome bargain.

The problem I had was this:

(1) In my QB matters league, I didn't want to wait on Kitna because I was afraid of what happened if I missed him (last QB I was willing to go with).

(2) In my QB can wait league, he went before I was ready to call him a huge bargain.

:lmao:

 
I drafted him in round 6.In that league Peyton outscored him by 6 pts a game based on our scoring system. Waiting made sense in that league.

Detroit will throw a lot this year.

 
I took Kitna in the late 7th. I backed him up with Eli.

Since my league penalizes QBs for INTs, fumbles and sacks, he is somewhat of a risky pick, especially since I also drafted Roy Williams.

But Mike Martz always has his team in the top-5 for passing in the NFL, and I am excited about the addition of WR Calvin Johnson. I would not reach for Kitna, but I think he has good value in the 7th round and beyond after the "big six" are gone (Manning, Brady, Palmer, Brees, Bulger, McNabb).

 
I was able to grab Kitna in a 12-team league in the 9th round (100th pick overall).

I definitely feel that top 5 QB numbers are attainable. :wub:

 
Let's see...

- 2nd year in the Martz system

- Came in as the unquestioned #1 QB, taking most of the #1 snaps

- Top flight WR corps

- Heart of a, errr.....lion?

I'll take him!

As long is he keep the INT's to a minimum, I think he's an easy Top 5 to Top 10 QB. Had him ranked in the same group as Rivers, Romo, and Roth. They all went considerably higher than Kitna in most leagues and I was able to get him fairly late in a couple. Leinart dropped far enough that I was able to get him twice too.

 
Thumper said:
When you consider that Kitna has one of, if not the best 1-2 wr's in the NFL. Plus, he is in Mike Martz run and gun offense I don't think it is out of the question that Kitna puts up 4,300 yds and 25 td's this season.I would not be surprised if he had better numbers than guys like Marc Bulger (T.Holt is hurting) and Tom Brady (Randy Moss has not practiced + almost got cut) this season.I think he is a mid round bargainAny thoughts?
Depends on how many rounds your draft is. He hasnt played for 3 weeks and when he was in there he was getting killed. I am a Lions fan, but I got a feeling he wont make it through half the season. Martz has a tendency to leave his QBs out there to take some hits. If you do draft him, you better have an alternate option.
 
Crew Love said:
I was able to grab Kitna in a 12-team league in the 9th round (100th pick overall). I definitely feel that top 5 QB numbers are attainable. :shrug:
1st statement = good value.2nd one = insanity.Which of these elite QBs does he bump to crack the top 6?ManningPalmerBrady BreesBulgerMcNabbDon't get me wrong - he's a almost a shoe-in for top 10. I just don't see him cracking the top 5. Barring injury to one of the above six, he'll finish around 7 or 8. (Vince Young's rushing #'s could be a factor depending on your scoring)
 
Thumper said:
When you consider that Kitna has one of, if not the best 1-2 wr's in the NFL. Plus, he is in Mike Martz run and gun offense I don't think it is out of the question that Kitna puts up 4,300 yds and 25 td's this season.I would not be surprised if he had better numbers than guys like Marc Bulger (T.Holt is hurting) and Tom Brady (Randy Moss has not practiced + almost got cut) this season.I think he is a mid round bargainAny thoughts?
Depends on how many rounds your draft is. He hasnt played for 3 weeks and when he was in there he was getting killed. I am a Lions fan, but I got a feeling he wont make it through half the season. Martz has a tendency to leave his QBs out there to take some hits. If you do draft him, you better have an alternate option.
All very true, but he is one of the few qb's with a big upside.
 
Kitna is in the same boat as Leinart. Great receivers, ?'s at RB. He is in that 7-12 range with Leinart, Rivers, Young, Cutler, Romo, Big Ben, Hasselbeck.

 
In 2 of my 12 team/14 round leagues (4pt pass TD, NO penalty for INTs)

I took him at the end of the 6th round in both.

It was after the Big 6 were gone (Manning thru McNabb) and, in addition,

I took him as the 10th QB off the board.

I *love* me some Kitna this year in those leagues. He can throw as

many INTs as he wants as long as he chucks up a TD or 2 at the same time.

I think he can be top 6, especially if McNabb and/or Bulger miss some time.

 
Crew Love said:
I was able to grab Kitna in a 12-team league in the 9th round (100th pick overall).

I definitely feel that top 5 QB numbers are attainable. :goodposting:
1st statement = good value.2nd one = insanity.

Which of these elite QBs does he bump to crack the top 6?

Manning

Palmer

Brady

Brees

Bulger

McNabb

Don't get me wrong - he's a almost a shoe-in for top 10. I just don't see him cracking the top 5. Barring injury to one of the above six, he'll finish around 7 or 8. (Vince Young's rushing #'s could be a factor depending on your scoring)
Not really insane at all. A lot depends on the scoring system. In my local (big money league) -we don't penalize for ints - last year he was the 4th best QB. The top 5 order went like this:Manning

Brees

Palmer

Kitna

Bulger

 
Crew Love said:
I was able to grab Kitna in a 12-team league in the 9th round (100th pick overall). I definitely feel that top 5 QB numbers are attainable. :goodposting:
1st statement = good value.2nd one = insanity.Which of these elite QBs does he bump to crack the top 6?ManningPalmerBrady BreesBulgerMcNabbDon't get me wrong - he's a almost a shoe-in for top 10. I just don't see him cracking the top 5. Barring injury to one of the above six, he'll finish around 7 or 8. (Vince Young's rushing #'s could be a factor depending on your scoring)
There's a difference between "attainable" and "probable". I chose to use "attainable" for a reason.However, to answer your question, I would not be surprised to see Kitna finish on top of one of the quarterbacks you listed above. Am I betting on it...? No. But if I had to pick out a few possibilities, I'd say Bulger and Brady.
 
Crew Love said:
I was able to grab Kitna in a 12-team league in the 9th round (100th pick overall). I definitely feel that top 5 QB numbers are attainable. :goodposting:
1st statement = good value.2nd one = insanity.Which of these elite QBs does he bump to crack the top 6?ManningPalmerBrady BreesBulgerMcNabbDon't get me wrong - he's a almost a shoe-in for top 10. I just don't see him cracking the top 5. Barring injury to one of the above six, he'll finish around 7 or 8. (Vince Young's rushing #'s could be a factor depending on your scoring)
There's a difference between "attainable" and "probable". I chose to use "attainable" for a reason.However, to answer your question, I would not be surprised to see Kitna finish on top of one of the quarterbacks you listed above. Am I betting on it...? No. But if I had to pick out a few possibilities, I'd say Bulger and Brady.
I'd add Brees to your list. I think Brees is gonna seriously underperform expectations. Colston will be locked down because defenses have a year's worth of film to study and he is now the undisputed #1 which means he will be guarded by the best CB from each team. Devery will have about 3 games where he puts up numbers worthy of being a starter because his only threat is speed. And no way Bush catches 88 balls again this year. Horn leaving will do a lot of harm to this team. Even though Colston was the #1 last year from a fantasy perspective, he was not the true #1 on the team.
 
Kitna is in the same boat as Leinart. Great receivers, ?'s at RB. He is in that 7-12 range with Leinart, Rivers, Young, Cutler, Romo, Big Ben, Hasselbeck.
The two systems couldn't be more different. Top-5, lock it up. :championship:
 
Crew Love said:
I was able to grab Kitna in a 12-team league in the 9th round (100th pick overall). I definitely feel that top 5 QB numbers are attainable. :thumbup:
1st statement = good value.2nd one = insanity.Which of these elite QBs does he bump to crack the top 6?ManningPalmerBrady BreesBulgerMcNabbDon't get me wrong - he's a almost a shoe-in for top 10. I just don't see him cracking the top 5. Barring injury to one of the above six, he'll finish around 7 or 8. (Vince Young's rushing #'s could be a factor depending on your scoring)
Kitna's yards should be roughly the same as last year or better. TDs increase; INTs decrease. In a 6pt PaTD league, this is how they'll finish...1. Manning2. Palmer3. Kitna4. Brady5. BulgerBrees will have a fine year but regress a bit. McNabb should be fine, too. Seriously, Kitna's not a very good QB in terms of skill sets. But, that position is so heavily dependent on the system, and they're going to throw the ball 600+ times to a fantastic trio of receivers. My ONLY hesitation with these projections is Kitna's health, and Martz's propensity to leave them exposed. But, if healthy, Kitna's going to rack up enormous numbers.
 
Crew Love said:
I was able to grab Kitna in a 12-team league in the 9th round (100th pick overall). I definitely feel that top 5 QB numbers are attainable. :thumbup:
1st statement = good value.2nd one = insanity.Which of these elite QBs does he bump to crack the top 6?ManningPalmerBrady BreesBulgerMcNabbDon't get me wrong - he's a almost a shoe-in for top 10. I just don't see him cracking the top 5. Barring injury to one of the above six, he'll finish around 7 or 8. (Vince Young's rushing #'s could be a factor depending on your scoring)
Kitna's yards should be roughly the same as last year or better. TDs increase; INTs decrease. In a 6pt PaTD league, this is how they'll finish...1. Manning2. Palmer3. Kitna4. Brady5. BulgerBrees will have a fine year but regress a bit. McNabb should be fine, too. Seriously, Kitna's not a very good QB in terms of skill sets. But, that position is so heavily dependent on the system, and they're going to throw the ball 600+ times to a fantastic trio of receivers. My ONLY hesitation with these projections is Kitna's health, and Martz's propensity to leave them exposed. But, if healthy, Kitna's going to rack up enormous numbers.
:thumbup:
 
I remember one year where Tommy Maddox was predicted to be very good by some because "with Ward and Burress putting up huge numbers how could the QB not?". He was a bust. Kitna reminds me of that situation.

 
I remember one year where Tommy Maddox was predicted to be very good by some because "with Ward and Burress putting up huge numbers how could the QB not?". He was a bust. Kitna reminds me of that situation.
Yeah, except, Kitna actually did produce last year. It's not about the talent (which he has), but the system that ensures ridiculous numbers for any QB at Martz's disposal. Maddox was in PIT with Cowher and a smashmouth running game. And, for however average Kitna is, he's > Maddox as a QB, anyway.
 
I pulled Kitna at 6.10 in a 12 teamer. Thought I got good value there. When 8.10 came around though I saw Hasselback sitting there and not much else left in the second tier so I added him to the roster as well.

 
I pulled Kitna at 6.10 in a 12 teamer. Thought I got good value there. When 8.10 came around though I saw Hasselback sitting there and not much else left in the second tier so I added him to the roster as well.
Huh? You shouldn't have done that. I guarantee that there were still decent QBs that you could have grabbed a round or 2 later. If you had second thoughts about drafting Kitna there you shouldn't have pulled the trigger on Hasselback.
 
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Crew Love said:
I was able to grab Kitna in a 12-team league in the 9th round (100th pick overall). I definitely feel that top 5 QB numbers are attainable. :blackdot:
1st statement = good value.2nd one = insanity.Which of these elite QBs does he bump to crack the top 6?ManningPalmerBrady BreesBulgerMcNabbDon't get me wrong - he's a almost a shoe-in for top 10. I just don't see him cracking the top 5. Barring injury to one of the above six, he'll finish around 7 or 8. (Vince Young's rushing #'s could be a factor depending on your scoring)
Last 6 weeks he beat out Palmer, Brees and Brady. VY was #2.I took Kitna 6 and McNair in the 12th.
 
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Think of it this way, if you take all the Martz QBs not named Kurt Warner, Marc Bulger, or John Kitna, here's what they've done since 1999:

543/877/6240/35/40

cmp/att/yds/tds/int

These are with folks named Germaine, Justin, Green, Martin, Covington, Chandler, and Fitzpatrick.

Prorate out those stats based on 600 attempts, you're getting 4269 yards, 23 TDs and 27 INTs with crap at QB (save for Trent Green).

Kitna's no Joe Montana, but he's an adequate QB. Insert him into a Martz system, and he's guaranteed significant numbers.

 
didn't he make the pro-bowl when he started in Cincy?

he can be a top 5 QB this year. As long as the o-line can keep him from getting killed.....KJones not on PUP also a bonus.

 
didn't he make the pro-bowl when he started in Cincy? he can be a top 5 QB this year. As long as the o-line can keep him from getting killed.....KJones not on PUP also a bonus.
I dunno if he made it to the Pro Bowl in '03, but he did have a pretty good year: 325/520/3591/26/15 (62.3%; 6.9ypa)
 
I pulled Kitna at 6.10 in a 12 teamer. Thought I got good value there. When 8.10 came around though I saw Hasselback sitting there and not much else left in the second tier so I added him to the roster as well.
Nice combo ! I took Kitna in the 6th and backed him up with Hasselback in the 10th. Nice pair of QBs to have. :whistle:
 
didn't he make the pro-bowl when he started in Cincy?

he can be a top 5 QB this year. As long as the o-line can keep him from getting killed.....KJones not on PUP also a bonus.
I dunno if he made it to the Pro Bowl in '03, but he did have a pretty good year: 325/520/3591/26/15 (62.3%; 6.9ypa)
:lmao: Willie Anderson and CJ did. Not Kitna.However, one thing I didn't know:

Among the league's all-time top 50

Completions: 46

He'll probably be #31 by the end of 2007.

PFR

 
I understand all the love for Kitna in terms of the season he's going to have. However, I don't think it's any big secret.

Kitna's current ADP is pick 60, QB7. That sounds pretty fair to me. On my board he's QB7, maybe QB8 if the scoring system is friendly to Vince Young.

Does he have top 5 potential? Of course. But you'd expect QB7 to have top 5 potential.

 
I understand all the love for Kitna in terms of the season he's going to have. However, I don't think it's any big secret.

Kitna's current ADP is pick 60, QB7. That sounds pretty fair to me. On my board he's QB7, maybe QB8 if the scoring system is friendly to Vince Young.

Does he have top 5 potential? Of course. But you'd expect QB7 to have top 5 potential.
I'm a little more bullish on Kitna and saying top-3 potential. Normally, I wouldn't expect that out of QB7.
 
I understand all the love for Kitna in terms of the season he's going to have. However, I don't think it's any big secret.

Kitna's current ADP is pick 60, QB7. That sounds pretty fair to me. On my board he's QB7, maybe QB8 if the scoring system is friendly to Vince Young.

Does he have top 5 potential? Of course. But you'd expect QB7 to have top 5 potential.
I'm a little more bullish on Kitna and saying top-3 potential. Normally, I wouldn't expect that out of QB7.
I love Kitna this year.I'd put him ahead of Bulger (I have a bad feeling about Holt) and Tom Brady (NE has talent at wr but they were all hurt during pre-season. Plus, the Pats have a tough schedule)

Kitna could be top 5 this season.

 
In the end he will be good, yes, but he is going to give you fits all season. He's gonna have weeks of 300/3 TD's and then weeks of 200/1 TD/4 INT's. I do like the guy as a value pick, but he's just not consistent enough for me to be honest.

He WILL lose weeks for you...

 
I like Kitna as well but he plays Oakland in week 1. Do we dare bench him vs a top rated pass defense?
I would bench him week 1 vs the Raiders.
See thats the thing with Kitna. Yes I think he will put up some nice #s this year but he isnt the kind of "stud" that you can play every week without worrying like the other top 6.
I kind of think the opposite is true in that regard.Oakland's pass defense is good, but it was also highly rated because nobody had to pass against the Raiders last year. Phillip Rivers only threw 11 passes in the opener against them. Marc Bulger only threw 22.You've got to be wary of a Tom Brady or Carson Palmer against Oakland because their teams are just gonna run the ball. The Lions with Martz and no defense are going to be throwing all the time no matter what, and that makes Kitna a more reliable start IMO.
 
Jon Kitna sucks. He has 2 good years in his entire career, and he is also a bad FF option. Ok he had 4,000 yards last year. Well I am not impressed. I don't think any team has ever thrown as much as the Lions did last year. He had almost 600 passing attempts! You know if the Lions want to win, they will be trying to balance that offense out more. So expect those yards to go down, and his TDs to stay in the 18-22 range. Then you can't forget his 22 ints, and his 9 lost fumbles. -62 points for turnovers. That is terrible. At best he is a backup, who wont be drafted with much value at all. I would much rather draft Phillip Rivers, a guy who is slipping far in a lot of leagues.
 
Jon Kitna sucks. He has 2 good years in his entire career, and he is also a bad FF option. Ok he had 4,000 yards last year. Well I am not impressed. I don't think any team has ever thrown as much as the Lions did last year. He had almost 600 passing attempts! You know if the Lions want to win, they will be trying to balance that offense out more. So expect those yards to go down, and his TDs to stay in the 18-22 range. Then you can't forget his 22 ints, and his 9 lost fumbles. -62 points for turnovers. That is terrible. At best he is a backup, who wont be drafted with much value at all. I would much rather draft Phillip Rivers, a guy who is slipping far in a lot of leagues.
This font shtick of yours is annoying. Almost as much as a your pseudo-analyses of anything relating to football.
 
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Anything can happen here. Kitna doesn't need to be an elite QB to put up incredible numbers. In fact, it happens quite often. Steve Beuerlein wasn't an elite QB and he put up 4400+ yards and 36 TDs for Carolina in 1999 (a non playoff team that year). Elvis Grbac in 2000 (4100 and 28), Aaron Brooks in 2001 (3800 and 26), Rich Gannon in 2002 (4600 and 26)

Let's not forget, Kitna had 4200 and 21 in 2006, his first year with Detroit. Now a season later, with more experience in the Martz system, with a better OL and a better WR corps, the likelihood of him improving those numbers is not far-fetched at all. I think Kitna is a great value, especially if there are no negative points for INTs and/or if you get a bonus for reaching 200 or 300 yards passing.

 
Anything can happen here. Kitna doesn't need to be an elite QB to put up incredible numbers. In fact, it happens quite often. Steve Beuerlein wasn't an elite QB and he put up 4400+ yards and 36 TDs for Carolina in 1999 (a non playoff team that year). Elvis Grbac in 2000 (4100 and 28), Aaron Brooks in 2001 (3800 and 26), Rich Gannon in 2002 (4600 and 26)Let's not forget, Kitna had 4200 and 21 in 2006, his first year with Detroit. Now a season later, with more experience in the Martz system, with a better OL and a better WR corps, the likelihood of him improving those numbers is not far-fetched at all. I think Kitna is a great value, especially if there are no negative points for INTs and/or if you get a bonus for reaching 200 or 300 yards passing.
I think last years numbers are the worst case scenario for Kitna.He has a stud wr in Roy Williams. The NFC leader in catches with Mike Furrey. The #1 pick in the NFL draft Calvin Johnson who enters the league as the wr with the most potential since Randy Moss. He also has Kevin Jones + Tatum Bell coming out of the backfield with a better (still not great) O line.Most importantly he has Mike Martz running the offense.Jon Kitna could explode (fantasy wise) in 2007.
 
Jon Kitna sucks. He has 2 good years in his entire career, and he is also a bad FF option. Ok he had 4,000 yards last year. Well I am not impressed. I don't think any team has ever thrown as much as the Lions did last year. He had almost 600 passing attempts! You know if the Lions want to win, they will be trying to balance that offense out more. So expect those yards to go down, and his TDs to stay in the 18-22 range. Then you can't forget his 22 ints, and his 9 lost fumbles. -62 points for turnovers. That is terrible. At best he is a backup, who wont be drafted with much value at all. I would much rather draft Phillip Rivers, a guy who is slipping far in a lot of leagues.
I think I'm blind now. :thumbup:
 
I was happy to get Kitna in our 12 team 14th year league as the 8th QB taken after the top consesus 6 and Hasselback at the 5.02 slot. ( QB's go earlier in this league) I had him as my 7th ranked QB for Aug 27th draft. I love Martz offenses, but Detroit has a VERY Tough schedule this season; so I have mixed emotions about Kitna, Romo went right after him and these were the last two QB that I wanted for my starting QB. Last year he was the 6th ranked QB in this league behind Manning,Brees,Bulger,Palmer,&McNabb.

 
I like Kitna as well but he plays Oakland in week 1. Do we dare bench him vs a top rated pass defense?
I would bench him week 1 vs the Raiders.
See thats the thing with Kitna. Yes I think he will put up some nice #s this year but he isnt the kind of "stud" that you can play every week without worrying like the other top 6.
I kind of think the opposite is true in that regard.Oakland's pass defense is good, but it was also highly rated because nobody had to pass against the Raiders last year. Phillip Rivers only threw 11 passes in the opener against them. Marc Bulger only threw 22.You've got to be wary of a Tom Brady or Carson Palmer against Oakland because their teams are just gonna run the ball. The Lions with Martz and no defense are going to be throwing all the time no matter what, and that makes Kitna a more reliable start IMO.
:lmao:
 
SpecOpLoad said:
I like Kitna as well but he plays Oakland in week 1. Do we dare bench him vs a top rated pass defense?
I would bench him week 1 vs the Raiders.
See thats the thing with Kitna. Yes I think he will put up some nice #s this year but he isnt the kind of "stud" that you can play every week without worrying like the other top 6.
I kind of think the opposite is true in that regard.Oakland's pass defense is good, but it was also highly rated because nobody had to pass against the Raiders last year. Phillip Rivers only threw 11 passes in the opener against them. Marc Bulger only threw 22.You've got to be wary of a Tom Brady or Carson Palmer against Oakland because their teams are just gonna run the ball. The Lions with Martz and no defense are going to be throwing all the time no matter what, and that makes Kitna a more reliable start IMO.
:thumbdown:
I think that Detroit/Oakland game is going to be very high scoring. I would not bench Kitna vs Oakland.
 
SpecOpLoad said:
I like Kitna as well but he plays Oakland in week 1. Do we dare bench him vs a top rated pass defense?
I would bench him week 1 vs the Raiders.
See thats the thing with Kitna. Yes I think he will put up some nice #s this year but he isnt the kind of "stud" that you can play every week without worrying like the other top 6.
I kind of think the opposite is true in that regard.Oakland's pass defense is good, but it was also highly rated because nobody had to pass against the Raiders last year. Phillip Rivers only threw 11 passes in the opener against them. Marc Bulger only threw 22.You've got to be wary of a Tom Brady or Carson Palmer against Oakland because their teams are just gonna run the ball. The Lions with Martz and no defense are going to be throwing all the time no matter what, and that makes Kitna a more reliable start IMO.
:thumbdown:
I think that Detroit/Oakland game is going to be very high scoring. I would not bench Kitna vs Oakland.
Oakland did have the #1 defense vs. the pass last year though. 150.8 yds/gm. They only allowed 137 passing first downs in 2006, fewest of any team. As a Kitna owner, I'm a little worried.
 

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