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Jonathan Taylor vs. De'Andre Swift PPR (1 Viewer)

I'm about to lose my mind over some of this reasoning.

Taylor was substituted on 3rd down for...reasons. Yet he still had the second most carries (320) in the country (Chuba Hubbard - 328). Swift was 38th in carries.

So they must have given it to Taylor A LOT on first and second down. Maybe Wisconsin rotated a guy in on third down because giving the ball to a guy on three straight downs doesn't make football sense? Plus, he had two MORE catches than Swift for a total of 346 touches. And his YPC slightly edged out Swift's too, 6.3 to 6.2, so the argument isn't about efficiency either.

De'Andre Swift had 196 carries and 24 catches. By my math that's 124 fewer carries than Taylor. And 126 fewer touches.

Who cares what downs those touches happened on!?

To me, the WAY bigger question than Taylor's 3rd down usage is Swift's OVERALL usage. It's not like Georgia was going to beat people through the air last year. How come Swift wasn't remotely the workhorse back that Taylor, Dobbins, Moss, Akers, and CEH were? Why didn't Swift score a TD in his final SEVEN games? Why did he only have one receiving TD all year?

 
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rockaction said:
Lot of people at FBG down on Swift. He sliding everywhere but with the pro scouts.
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Which is a critical detail. The more draft capital a team invests in a player, the more likely they will be given an opportunity to play right away and the more likely they are to be allowed some mistakes along the way.

Swift has a 3 down skill set. Taylor might, but I believe (and this is 100% opinion) that he'll more likely be drafted after Swift and subbed on 3rd down. Landing spot will matter, but without that knowledge, I'm going Swift. 

Taylor is more highly valued on FBG and similar places than in the NFL draftnik world.

 
Ack88 said:
Which is a critical detail. The more draft capital a team invests in a player, the more likely they will be given an opportunity to play right away and the more likely they are to be allowed some mistakes along the way.

Swift has a 3 down skill set. Taylor might, but I believe (and this is 100% opinion) that he'll more likely be drafted after Swift and subbed on 3rd down. Landing spot will matter, but without that knowledge, I'm going Swift. 

Taylor is more highly valued on FBG and similar places than in the NFL draftnik world.
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Yep. Very important. Strange how the fantasy sites are higher on him and he might not play third down. You figure it'd be the other way around. 

 
Draft capital, if it matters at all, only matters on the same team.

The Dolphins won't care that the Chiefs took Swift in the first when they take Taylor in the second, for example.

Now if they take Taylor in the second and Darrynton Evans in the fifth, they'll play Taylor a lot before Evans even if three latter outperforms the former.

 
I was going to write that there is an absolute value to draft capital partially because of what Dr. Dan pointed out, partially because of slotting and contracts.

 
Dr. Dan said:
If a team spends a 1st on a RB in this class, chances are high it's a good team, and the bad teams will be looking in round 2. This matters a lot. 

Would you rather have Swift on KC or Taylor on Miami 
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Well this is a completely different question than the one I was answering with my example but...

Are you asking if I would I rather have the guy that will be the focus of a team's offense or just a one of several options?  The best fantasy back, McCaffrey, played for one of the worst teams last year.

Serious answer - I'm Team Taylor. He's better at football than Swift.

You think Swift is sexier, and that's probably right too. If we were in a league together, I'd be happy to take Taylor and you'd be happier taking Swift. We're not gong to change each other's minds, so it's probably better in this thread to state why you support Swift - to help those whose minds aren't made up.

 
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ZWK said:
Garrett Groshek had 17 third down receptions for Wisconsin last year, Jonathan Taylor had 3.
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Thanks for sharing Z. Interesting site. Maybe I missed it but I didn't see the stats to validate the assertion that Taylor wasn't in the game for 3rd downs.  Wisconsin had 189 3rd down opportunities. The receptions between the two RBs only accounts for 19 of Wisconsin's 3rd down situations.

Side question: Is there site that shows targets for college teams/players? 

 
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Dr. Dan said:
I dont dislike Taylor. I actually have all 3 of these backs very close with specific issues for each:

Swift: size, injury history, is he a bellcow?

Taylor: Could very well.profile as a 2 down back in the NFL. Fumbling issues and pass pro

Dobbins: Jack of all trades master of none. pass pro is an issue. 

I have openly admited that I am at the point where I don't know who I prefer
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I've begun to switch up my rookie drafts and mine look a lot better going WR/WR/WR. I've got 1.01, 2.01, 2.07

 
King of the Jungle said:
What WR at 1.01?
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CeeDee or Ruggs. Mainly CeeDee. It doesn't matter so much who, it's the way it all seems to fall after that. I find that when I select a RB from that position, I'm fighting uphill in a great receiver class to get just that.

I've been going seven or eight deep at WR at times, and all I have is eight picks. Come draft day, that'll be different when I don't like a pick and decide to go IDP for that pick, but I'm noting where that happens more and more so I have a good idea about it. 

 
Dr. Dan said:
Wrong. TEN drafting any RB would increase their value. who wouldnt want a rb who in 2021 stands to be the starter on a run first team built to be a run first team for the long haul?

I actually think TEN could be a great spot for Taylor or Dobbins

Even if Dallas drafted a RB round 2, I'd take it as they might be setting themselves up to dump some salary with Zeke in 2021, much like LAR did with Gurley

You don't invest a high pick at RB to let them rot the bench. That's how GMs get fired. 
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I still love that the official word out of LA that year they drafted Henderson in the third was that they drafted Henderson as COP and Gurley wasn't hurt. As soon as that was their selection in the third (and they had a really sparse amount of picks that year), one should have known.

 
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The more I watch of Taylor the more I drool. His inside run game is incredible. He may not be Lesean McCoy in the lateral agility department but his feet are special in the way he is able to “Jerome Bettis” just enough one way or another to continue path (and in which the speed he is able to make those transitions at is incredible). I do not see an RB in this class in which has anywhere near the upside of Taylor (pre-draft).

 
Dr. Dan said:
2 questions-

1. Do you play redraft only?

2. Which is more ridiculous, expecting a team to invest a 2nd round pick into a position of strength and expecting them to sign that veteran to a long deal.... or moving on from that player after a franchise designation? 
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To further your point 2, a player that likely isn’t going to age well.

 
Wooters said:
The point is that Penny destroys your entire theory buddy.  So therefore, your theory isn't a theory- it's a guess.  Welcome to the club.  At least I can admit it.  You think you're an NFL level prospect evaluater GM.
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If you’re interested in being honest and not just trying to throw crap at someone, Penny does not destroy Dan’s entire theory. It’s likely that the Seahawks used a valuable draft pick on Penny exactly because they wanted him to be a major contributor on offense. It didn’t work out that way for two reasons: (1) Penny came into camp overweight and did not put in the work to take the job and then tore an ACL in Year 2 and (2) Chris Carson did what he does best, defy the odds. Carson kept the job by producing at a top level.

Is your contention that Seattle drafted Penny in Round 1 not to use him?

And before you say it, I did not draft Penny, in fact I was glad to see him taken at pick 2 when I had pick 3.

 
Andy Dufresne said:
And the "If Guy X goes to KC, he's THE guy" trope is a mystery to me to. You think THAT won't be a rotation? I don't see KC as ideal at all.
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if you go back to 2015 thru 2018* seasons, the gap was very skewed toward a single rusher, last year was the outlier in terms of rushing splits.

Give me andy reids RB over pretty much anyone. chances are they will have at least a 3-1 split on carries and baked in rec's

http://www.nfl.com/teams/kansascitychiefs/statistics?season=2016&team=KC&seasonType=

* the 2014 season was close(er) i assume it was a JC injury, but 2010-2013 was again hugely slanted toward JC

 
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Dr. Dan said:
tried PMing you but it says you cant receive them

Dynasty nerds makes a great point that next year's draft class at wr is better than this year's. They recommend taking RB4 or 5 over WR2 (Jeudy) if they get a favorable landing spot, even if you have to wait a year. 

The theory is that some of these teams (ATL, HOU, TEN) may take a RB in this draft knowing they have a better player to sit on for a year than they could get next year. 

Food for thought 
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That doesn't seem possible.

 
Dr. Dan said:
tried PMing you but it says you cant receive them

Dynasty nerds makes a great point that next year's draft class at wr is better than this year's. They recommend taking RB4 or 5 over WR2 (Jeudy) if they get a favorable landing spot, even if you have to wait a year. 

The theory is that some of these teams (ATL, HOU, TEN) may take a RB in this draft knowing they have a better player to sit on for a year than they could get next year. 

Food for thought 
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Thanks, Dan. I'll try and clear out my inbox. I've been really back and forth on this, and I changed my mind a million times. I'll PM you. 

 
Well, by sometime tomorrow night we should have answers on draft capital/landing spot between these two. I’ve (relatively) settled into the position that Taylor is the better player by a meaningful margin, with Swift’s potential ppr value eating into that gap.

What could get interesting is where Taylor is taken relative to other RBs.  There are scenarios where he’s the 2nd or 3rd back off the board (and almost nobody has him mocked as the first).  It’s not necessarily a reason to pass on him at 1.1 but other backs with his talent and college production have demanded a first round pick. Taylor may not. I think that’s explainable due to NFL teams valuing RBs with receiving value right now, but it still creates a certain dissonance. 

 
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DAG said:
Well, by sometime tomorrow night we should have answers on draft capital/landing spot between these two. I’ve (relatively) settled into the position that Taylor is the better player by a meaningful margin, with Swift’s potential ppr value eating into that gap.

What could get interesting is where Taylor is taken relative to other RBs.  There are scenarios where he’s the 2nd or 3rd back off the board (and almost nobody has him mocked as the first).  It’s not necessarily a reason to pass on him at 1.1 but other backs with his talent and college production have demanded a first round pick. Taylor may not. I think that’s explainable due to NFL teams valuing RBs with receiving value right now, but it still creates a certain dissonance. 
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I don't think when Taylor gets drafted will move the needle for me. I expect him and Dobbins to be drafted after CEH and Swift because the NFL places emphasis on passing game assets. It doesn't change my opinion that both Taylor and Dobbins are better RB's. Who drafts them will net an impact on how I order them, but it'd have to be quite the tumble for the pick # to mean anything.

 
I plan to draft both players so I don't care where or when they are drafted. Both will be good/great on their teams at some point.

Tex

 
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