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Josh Freeman, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2 Viewers)

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2012 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

As always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Josh Freeman, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Player Page Link: Josh Freeman Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

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[*]For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

[*]For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[*]For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

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Suprised no one has responded yet to the Freeman thread.

I like to throw out information on a prospect that I notice so here is a scatter gun of tidbits about Josh Freeman that I have noticed. In my league we count INTs against QB production so a QB who is suffers from multiple interceptions hurts so I tend to notice a guy who is sloppy and has multi INT games and I also tend to notice the oppisite where a guy has mulitple TD games.

- In his first season he had two games where he threw more than one TD pass with five multi INT games. 10 passing TDs, 18 INTs, 291 passing attempts, 151 completions (54%), for 1,855 yrds, and took 20 sacks, QB passer rating of 59.8

- His second season he had seven multi TD games as opposed to only one game where he threw two INTs. The 25 TDs balaced off of only 6 INTs made Freeman the darling of the fantasy community. 474 attempts, 291 completions(61%), for 3,451 yards, and took 28 sacks. QB passer rating of 95.9

- Last year came back down to earth with four multi TD games with seven multi INT games. 16 TDs, 22 INTs, 551 attempts, 246 completions (62%), for 3,592 yards, and took 29 sacks. QB passer rating of 89.7

Freeman is a big dude, listed at 6'2 and 248 lbs, and can move so his scrambling ability is a positive. Lets look at his rushing stats over his career:

- First year, 31 rush attempts, 162 rushing yards,0 rush TDs

- Year two, 68 attempts, 164 EDIT correction 364 rushing yards, 0 TDs

- Last year he started to add rushing scores, 55 attempts, 238 yards, 4 rushing TDs

Recent news. A coaching change in Tampa Bay coupled with the team drafting RB Doug Martin in the first round. Many are assuming that this means we will see less passing attempts and I would have to agree but last season Freeman had 87 more attempts only produced 139 more yards over the previous year and ended up with 13 fewer TDs so a decrease in attempts coupled with a stronger rushing attack may actually help Freeman's fantasy numbers.

Other news. TE Kellen Winslow is gone and Dallas Clark and WR Vincent Jackson have been signed. Apparently Winslow demanded the ball and supassed being a security blanket to become a millstone around Freeman's neck. I know some like to see addition by subtraction but Winslow certainly must have helped with the high completion numbers that Freeman has produced over the last two seasons. Clark isn't chopped liver but I think Freeman's completion petcentage 'could possibly' take a bit of a hit.

V-Jax should help a lot IMHO. Last year saw the Tampa WRs take a step backwards. Adding a legit, big tall and strong #1 WR into the mix like Vincent Jackson has to help not only Freeman but the entire recieving corps so any ding felt by the loss of Winslow is more than made up by the addition of WR Vincent Jackson.

Reports from the Bucs OTAs mention that Freeman has reportedly lost 20 lbs "Well, I stopped going to Taco Bell late at night," joked Freeman, who also started a workout regimen unrelated to football that included more cross-fit training. "I eliminated the fourth meal."

Reports were that last year's coaching staff was lax on discipline but apparently the new regime inists on it and from the reports Freeman is entusiastically falling in line.

Freeman hasn't missed any games since he has been named the starter so he is durable.

I feel he is under rated in the fantasy community, he's listed down at #17 on the Football Guys combined ratings and I think that is a bit low. Freeman isn't overly productive on his game-by-game passing yards (only two-300+ passing yard games i his career) but I think he is a solid top 10-15 fantasy QB who may not throw up gaudy stats but he should be consistent and I think he will cut down on the mistakes and be more cautious with the football.

I project:

500 attempts

310 completions (62%)

3,500 yards

23 passing TDs

15 interceptions

60 rush attempts

325 rush yards

3 rush TDs

Some might feel that is a high number of attempts but that projection is over 50 fewer pass attemtps than last season. The TD numbers are reasonable but well within his capabilities as are the rushing numbers. I feel the biggest improvement will be that we will see Freeman much more careful with the ball so his interception numbers could be even less than my projections.

Not gaudy but solid top 10-15 fantasy QB numbers.

 
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The defining hallmark of Freeman’s awful regression last year IMO can be summed up by his 1st quarter performance.

56 Completions

96 Attempts

537 Passing Yards

0 TD’s

3 INT’s

Overall, the Bucs scored 1 offensive TD in the first quarter all season. That’s almost impossible and it obviously speaks to need to remove Raheem Morris as HC. This was a team clearly unprepared on a weekly basis to come out and compete and if you saw them play toward the end of the season, it may have been one of the worst examples of a professional team going through the motions that you’ll ever see.

The question I ask though is this? Where was Josh Freeman during this? Doesn’t this reflect on him as well? I recognize that he’s still a young QB. But he’s entering Year 4 now…where was the anger? The indignation? The leadership? If things go south again whether it be next year or in future years…will he react in the same low-key manner?

Most people thought that Freeman was a longer term franchise QB project and it seemed like his schedule was accelerated after what appeared to be a breakout 2010. But what was more concerning to me what how for the most part, you really didn’t see Freeman step up during this time, not necessarily from a level of play standpoint, but more of a ‘not on my watch’ standpoint. Maybe because TB was off the map in terms of coverage, I didn’t see it or missed it, but IMO this was something that in my view can’t be ignored when I look at his short and long term prospects. I could not see Matt Ryan or Cam Newton standing idly by. And when you read off-season pieces about him…I feel like his teammates are making excuses on his behalf. For a guy entering Year 4, still seems like a lot of kid gloves are involved here.

So, I’m not high on Freeman bouncing back even with some weapons that have been brought on to assist his development (Carl Nicks, Vincent Jackson, Doug Martin). I think it’s fair to wonder if this is his make or break year and if he does not produce, whether he’s with the Bucs in 2013. I’m betting no. Schiano strikes me as a guy who wants to see progress and is simply a no-nonsense guy and he won't allow Freeman the type of leash he was afforded under Morris that IMO stunted his growth and ascension to being the leader and centerpiece for this team.

Prediction: 9 games – 165 Completions 287 Attempts, 1813 Passing Yards, 11 TD’s, 10INT’s: 34 Rushes, 156 Rushing Yards, 2 TD’s.

 
Freeman was absolutely torture to watch last year. TB's refusal to throw a pass deeper than 10 yards was just mind boggling at times. They had 37 passes completed over 20 yards. The league low was 30 (Jaguars) and league high was 72 (Patriots). That number should have been at least in the 50's, but they were really babying Freeman last year. If he was a rookie I'd understand, but it was his 3rd year. He seems to have plateaued, at least temporarily.

VJax and an improved oline will definitely help that, as will Doug Martin... but what I saw last year was more than a RB/WR/Oline problem. I can't put my finger on it, but I fully expect Freeman to continue struggling to break the 200 yard passing mark some weeks. He's far too inconsistent and a new offensive coordinator won't help that. His career seems to be headed the same path that Jason Campbell's went.

 
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'TheDirtyWord said:
Prediction: 9 games
Huh? Is it Dan Orlovsky or Brett Ratliff you think Freeman should be watching over his shoulder?
I think Freeman should simply be watching his own shoulders. Are Orlovsky and Ratliff as talented as Freeman? No.But Schiano is trying to build a program up from scratch. He's already done some things that are unconventional but noteworthy in terms of the type of atmosphere he wants (signing Eric LeGrand to the 90-man roster for one really said alot about Schiano). If you read my evaluation of Freeman, I thought that as the Bucs downward spiraled into an abyss of crapitude...Freeman was invisible...that IMO was a terrible sign.

Despite the Bucs FA signing, they still have the worst WR corps in the NFC South. Despite the drafting of Doug Martin, they still have the worst ground game in the NFC South. And their defense has a long way to go - they brought in Eric Wright, Mark Barron & Amobi Okoye...but I'd still put it in the bottom half of their division. So IMO, I think they'll struggle mightily in 2012 as well. And if come mid November, Freeman hasn't established himself as a team leader, I woulod suspect Schiano would be looking to shake things up knowing he'll probably use the 2013 draft to get his QB.

 
TB was horrible in 2011, and Freeman was definitely part of that. However, much has changed in TB. New HC, FA additions of Vincent Jackson, Carl Nicks, and Dallas Clark, trade of Kellen Winslow, drafting of Doug Martin.

TB looks to have a much improved O-line, and while their D should be improved (McCoy will be back, several FA additions, drafting Barron & David), I don't think it will be a top unit this year. Plus I see 11 games against teams whose offenses should force the Bucs to have to throw the ball (perhaps more than Schiano would like). With Jackson, Clark, and Martin as new targets, plus Mike Williams not having to face the opposition's CB1, I see a slightly higher TD rate than his career average.

535 attempts, 331 comp, 3700 yards, 25 TD, 44 rush, 200 yards, 1 TD

ETA-I don't project INTs, because my leagues don't penalize them, but I wouldn't be overly surprised to see 15 INTs or so. More deep attempts to VJax could lead to more INTs.

 
Despite the Bucs FA signing, they still have the worst WR corps in the NFC South. Despite the drafting of Doug Martin, they still have the worst ground game in the NFC South.
I'm not sure I can get on board with these two statements. With the addition of Jackson, the Bucs WRs are at least as good if not better than Carolina and New Orleans. Blount averaged over 5 yards per carry his rookie season, Tampa just added the Saints' best offensive lineman to their unit, and then went out and drafted the second best RB in the draft. I'd say their ground game will be better than Atlanta and New Orleans.You're correct in your assessment of 2011 being a season of crapitude. Nothing went right after Tampa's 4-2 start to the season. The defense absolutely fell apart when McCoy got hurt. They couldn't stop anyone. The offense had to abandon the run making play action obsolete. There's a much different feel for 2012. Freeman looks like a value play at QB after an abysmal 2011. He clearly has several playmaking weapons that weren't in his arsenal last year. Vincent Jackson, Mike Williams as a WR2, Martin out of the backfield, Dallas Clark/Luke Stocker as outlet TEs.I have Vincent Jackson projected for 1,050 yards and 8 TDs. Mike Williams will no longer face the main coverage from secondaries, so he should improve on his 2011 numbers, but the TD production from his rookie season likely won't be duplicated. He only had 3 in 2011 after 9 in 2010. He's somewhere in between those two players. 800 yards and 6 TDs. In 2010, when Freeman had RBs who could catch he passed to them for roughly 500 yards. The addition of Martin should give Freeman an outlet he didnt' have in 2011, and we could see a couple of TD passes to the RBs. Winslow put up 730 yards and 761 yards in the last two years respectively. His loss will be felt. 500 yards and 4 TDs from the TE spot would be respectable production. Benn has had his yardage increase from 395 to 441 the past two seasons. I expect that trend to continue as he's another year removed from injury, and should expect an increased role in the offense. I'll project him for 35 receptions, 500 yards and 4 deep ball TDs. 530 attempts, 334 completions, 7 yards per attempt, 3,710 yards, 27 TDs, 14 INTs. 300 rushing yards and 3 TDs.
 
I'm willing to give Freeman a pass for last year. He's still really young, and the majority of great QBs were struggling at Freeman's age last year (23), too.

I think Clark is a great addition, and obviously Jackson and Nicks should pay huge dividends. Throw in Martin, and you have a complete overhaul -- the team just added their top TE, WR, RB and OL. So as bad as his numbers were last year, I think you need to look past them.

Morris was a terrible HC. I have no idea how Schiano will do, but if nothing else, he's likely to be the change of pace they need down in TB. I was extremely skeptical about Freeman as a prospect -- he was not very good in college -- but I think he's proven that he's capable of being a legitimate NFL QB.

Fantasy wise, he's in a decent situation. I think he's going to find himself in a bunch of shootouts, or at least be forced to pass. No, he doesn't have a pass happy HC, but don't forget it's not Schiano calling the plays. Sullivan was the QB coach for the Giants the past few years, and I think we'll see a similar downfield passing attack out of Freeman with Jackson/Williams/Benn and Clark. It's actually got the potential to be a very interesting offense.

In any event, with a new OC, WR, TE, OG and RB -- along with a new attitude at HC -- the 2012 Bucs won't look like the 2011 Bucs. Freeman is an intriguing prospect.

 
TB was horrible in 2011, and Freeman was definitely part of that. However, much has changed in TB. New HC, FA additions of Vincent Jackson, Carl Nicks, and Dallas Clark, trade of Kellen Winslow, drafting of Doug Martin.TB looks to have a much improved O-line, and while their D should be improved (McCoy will be back, several FA additions, drafting Barron & David), I don't think it will be a top unit this year. Plus I see 11 games against teams whose offenses should force the Bucs to have to throw the ball (perhaps more than Schiano would like). With Jackson, Clark, and Martin as new targets, plus Mike Williams not having to face the opposition's CB1, I see a slightly higher TD rate than his career average. 535 attempts, 331 comp, 3700 yards, 25 TD, 44 rush, 200 yards, 1 TD ETA-I don't project INTs, because my leagues don't penalize them, but I wouldn't be overly surprised to see 15 INTs or so. More deep attempts to VJax could lead to more INTs.
:goodposting:
 
Given all the turnover in Tampa I find it hard to believe Freeman breaks out this year. Entire new coaching staff, new scheme, rookie RB, disgruntled backup that was of zero help in the passing game anyway, new #1 WR, new TE. Like many I'm willing to give him a pass in 2011 given all the #### going on with that team, but that's a lot of change to throw at somebody at one time. He has the physical and mental tools to succeed and this is definitely a put up or shut up year as far as his long term status with the team, but I just can't imagine him being a top 10 QB come season's end barring an unusual set of circumstances. There's just not a lot of upside here. He's currently the 18th QB selected. Can he outproduce that? Absolutely, probably should, but enough to have a meaningful impact on your roster? I doubt it.

I would rather target Schaub or Cutler a round earlier or snatch up Bradford at a similar price.

 
I have no idea what happened to the 2010 Freeman, but so far it looks like he's not coming back. Freeman just seems no longer willing to take shots down field so the team is constantly relying on the short passing game to turn things around.

I've never seen a player looking so close to the cusp of elite status turn into a pumpkin as quickly. It's like he signed a deal with the devil for one season and then turned into Jason Campbell.

 
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Recently took Freeman as QB16. I do like his upside that late, provided that he gets over whatever ailed him last year. That should be possible, given the additional weapons he has with Vince, Martin, and Clark (although haven't heard anything about Clark this preseason). I've also heard that Freeman has lost some weight and is more cut, which could bode well for his rushing totals. 360 yards in 2010, 4 TDs in 2011. 5.4 YPC in his first two years, went down to 4.8 last year, although he's never had more than 66 attempts.

If you combine his best stats over the last 3 years, it would be something like 3,600 passing yards (2011), 25 TDs and 6 INTs (probably an anomaly on INTs), 360 rushing yard and 4 more TDs, 5 lost fumbles. Something like 300 points, or around QB8-10 last year.

OTOH, a conservative play-calling style might limit his upside.

 
His performance today was the worst I've seen from a Tampa quarterback since Dilfer. Anything even reasonable wins that game. Dallas gave them so many chances.

 
Freeman is awful - on 3rd downs he has a 3.9 YPA and has only completed 8 first downs on 34 pass attempts. This is Gabbert/Russell level.

 
Josh Freeman 'Teases You': Greg Cosell and Ron Jaworski on the Tampa Bay Quarterback

By Sander Philipse on Oct 10, 12:01p

Josh Freeman has been the talk of the town the past weeks. His inconsistent play has been maddening, and his inaccuracy and failure to throw the ball down the field have led many Tampa Bay Buccaneers fans to write him off. Yet it's been my view that it's much too early to do that, as Freeman has shown enough throughout his career to be confident that he can bounce back.

In his quarterback rankings, Ron Jaworski noted the same problem (behind a pay wall). Freeman just isn't there yet as a quarterback, and his play so far this year has been unacceptable. But he does have talent, and it may just be a matter of time before he takes the next step.

Freeman's drop is a product of inconsistency. At times, my guys in the film room and I will see him make a throw that just wows you. Other times, you wonder where the heck he was trying to throw the ball at all. Sometimes we want to elevate a guy to Canton before he's ready, and that could be the case with Freeman. The physical talent is all there and I think it's just a matter of time before it comes together, but he has to eliminate those head-scratchers.

Similarly, Greg Cosell noted in last week's film notes at Fantasy Guru (also behind a pay wall) that Freeman seemed 'more aware and less frenetic' - yet is 'still struggling with timing on intermediate throws', 'struggling with ball location', possibly 'guessing re: reading coverage', 'struggling with recognition and reads' - and yet he's still an incredibly talented passer who 'teases you'.The question isn't whether Josh Freeman can do all the things required of a quarterback. The question is whether he can do them consistently, and whether we can trust that he'll improve. I think we saw some improvement last game, but he's far from good enough at this point. Is it time to say goodbye to Freeman if he doesn't improve by season's end, or does he deserve more time to develop? Keep in mind that no quarterback is a finished product in his fourth year in the league, especially so at age 24, and many quarterbacks have gone on to do significantly better in later seasons. Yet many others have simply busted out after four (or fewer) poor seasons. Where will Freeman fall?
 
Good article. Agree 100%. He reminds me of Jason Campbell. A guy with all the physical tools for a franchise QB. One that shows just enough to get a pass to start yet another year. Like Campbell, I think he'll be replaced (and become a backup) and circumstances will dictate whether they get the opportunity to start again.

 
I agree Freeman is a tease as an NFL QB. Plenty of talent but often lacks awareness in the pocket. From a fantasy perspective, though, I think there's a reason to be optimistic about him the rest of the way.

1. He's thrown at least one TD in every game this season.

2. Vincent Jackson has been an enormous addition and is playing well. That's freed up Mike Williams to settle into a more natural No. 2 WR role and he's also playing well. Both are also deep threats which means Freeman can gobble up yardage quickly and with few completions.

3. He has a good schedule the rest of the season. SOS is often deceiving and misleading but on paper Freeman doesn't appear to face many problematic pass defenses. He has an incredibly great matchup tomorrow against the Saints.

I posted in the Vincent Jackson thread that I thought Freeman could be a high-upside QB2 the rest of the way. If you're looking for a jolt at the position he might be able to provide it, as long as Jackson stays healthy. I think VJax is the key ingredient here. He needs to stay healthy but if he can I could see Freeman's fantasy value rising.

Not that you need any more reason to start Freeman this week if you were planning to given how awful the Saints defense is, but in his last four games against New Orleans Freeman has thrown for 1,058 yards with 6 TDs and 0 INTs.

 
By the end of the year I think people will be surprised with Freemans numbers. (In a good way)

He's got all the tools surrounding him and is just now starting to learn how to use them as well.

Should be a good sign this week.. :thumbup:

 
He's a Ben Roethlisberger talent. He already had a very good season. This type of player growth shouldn't have been all too surprising, even with his down year last year.

 
He's a Ben Roethlisberger talent. He already had a very good season. This type of player growth shouldn't have been all too surprising, even with his down year last year.
Disagree. Ben might not put up eye popping numbers, but he's put up excellent numbers even without good pass protection over the years and with a very inefficient running game this season. Roethlisberger can makeup for weaknesses in the offense, I haven't seen the same from Freeman yet. He's been putting up great numbers lately, but the schedule has been kind and will be kind for the next few weeks so I do expect him to continue to put up numbers, but I'm definitely not sold on him as a franchise QB.
 
He's a Ben Roethlisberger talent. He already had a very good season. This type of player growth shouldn't have been all too surprising, even with his down year last year.
Disagree. Ben might not put up eye popping numbers, but he's put up excellent numbers even without good pass protection over the years and with a very inefficient running game this season. Roethlisberger can makeup for weaknesses in the offense, I haven't seen the same from Freeman yet. He's been putting up great numbers lately, but the schedule has been kind and will be kind for the next few weeks so I do expect him to continue to put up numbers, but I'm definitely not sold on him as a franchise QB.
:yes: The only thing these 2 have in common are size.

 
Great game, but he only had 57% completions and is still second to last in that stat on the year.

He does lead the league with eight 40+ yard passes.

He hasn't progressed as much as a passer as I'd hoped, but there's still potential there. I'm still waiting to see him do well against a good defense this year and he'll have a chance next week against the Vikings.

 
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Road teams typically have not fared well in the Thursday games so it'll be interesting to see how Freeman performs. The Vikings' D is pretty solid but you can throw on them. So the matchup, on paper, isn't a difficult one for Freeman. I'm more concerned about the Thursday/road team issue than anything else as a Freeman owner.

 
Let us all be reminded the Saints are a historically awful defense. 465 yards per game allowed. The next closest is Buffalo at 424. All numbers against New Orleans should be taken with a hefty grain of salt.

 
Let us all be reminded the Saints are a historically awful defense. 465 yards per game allowed. The next closest is Buffalo at 424. All numbers against New Orleans should be taken with a hefty grain of salt.
True and as I posted earlier Freeman loves playing the Saints. But I also listed some other reasons why there's cause for optimism regarding Freeman going forward.
 
'cstu said:
He does lead the league with eight 40+ yard passes.
Vincent Jackson probably bought him another year (maybe 2) of being their franchise qb.was a great addition. while i know can't read defenses well, freeman certainly has the arm to throw it up downfield and let his guys make plays. (probably one of the most underrated skills for a qb. show a willingness to believe in your receiver...your wr will believe in you).
 
freeman certainly has the arm to throw it up downfield and let his guys make plays. (probably one of the most underrated skills for a qb. show a willingness to believe in your receiver...your wr will believe in you).
Agreed. That's something Kevin Kolb, for example, has yet to figure out.
 
freeman certainly has the arm to throw it up downfield and let his guys make plays. (probably one of the most underrated skills for a qb. show a willingness to believe in your receiver...your wr will believe in you).
Agreed. That's something Kevin Kolb, for example, has yet to figure out.
To be fair, Kolb usually has about 2, maybe 3 seconds if he's lucky to get rid of the ball before getting sacked.
 
Pretty good remaining schedule, and his bye week is already over with. A good piece of a QBBC for the rest of 2012, as he has some good match ups. I wouldn't start him over anyone established as a weekly play.

Not sure what to think in dynasty. They're just not winning games with him, outside of the 10-6 record in 2010. He's had a chance already, I think this is who he is. The comparison to Jason Campbell above is a good one. A lot of tools, poor accuracy. In fact, watching Freeman throw one in the dirt Sunday reminded me of Campbell to Cooley half the time and how frustrating that was as a Cooley owner. :wall:

 
With Cam being a bum and all and also play the best defense in the league, it was a fairly easy decision. We start 2 QBs, so if Freeman was mediocre it wasn't a huge deal. Couldn't be more pleased now. I may be rolling with him for a while and benching my 1st round pick. Ryan is my 2nd QB. Funny how that works.

 
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